Pirates at Reds
O/U 8.5 · RL Reds -1.5
Pittsburgh Pirates ML+120
CONF 62%
LLostFinal 2-10
The read
**Gary's Take**
It's a 1:40 start on a Sunday in Cincinnati with storms rolling around the Ohio River, and this series has been about as tight as it gets — the first three games decided by a handful of runs combined. Chase Burns goes for the Reds, chasing a franchise record that's stood since the mid-eighties. Mitch Keller goes for Pittsburgh, still looking for his first win since the end of June. On paper that's the whole story, and on paper the price makes sense. It isn't the whole story.
Burns is the best arm in the park today, and he's also the one who won't be out there long. He hasn't gone past six innings in any of his last six starts — he's a rookie, nobody in that clubhouse has really answered how much he can handle, and his manager has said as much about being careful with him. So that means four innings of Cincinnati bullpen on a getaway day, and that bullpen just burned Moll, Garcia and Ferguson on back-to-back nights, with Santillan and Ashcraft still hurt behind them. And the team Burns is pitching for doesn't hit much, doesn't score much, and has a losing record in its own building. Pittsburgh's been rough the last two weeks, but over the full season it's the better offense by a run a night, and today it lines up six lefty bats against a righty who has given up almost all of his home runs to left-handed hitters. Horwitz is back off the injured list in that group. Doval got activated this morning to give the late innings more juice.
The hole here is Keller, obviously — he's been worse than his numbers look and he's taken a beating all summer. What saves him is who's digging in against him: Cincinnati wrote out six righties, and righties have barely touched him all year. The market's already moving my way — Pittsburgh was a better payout this morning than it is now, which tells you where the money went and that I'd rather have had the earlier number. I'll still take it. If the sky opens up like it did last night, it's Burns who gets pulled early, not Keller, and the side with the deeper bullpen and the better lineup gets the last four innings. Pirates on the moneyline.
The full analysis
One-forty on a Sunday in Cincinnati, storms circling the Ohio River, and a series where the first three games have been decided by a grand total of five runs. Chase Burns takes the ball for the Reds chasing a franchise mark that has stood since Tom Browning in 1985. Mitch Keller takes it for Pittsburgh looking for his first win since the last week of June. On paper that's the whole story, and on paper the price makes sense. It isn't the whole story.
Burns is the best arm in this ballpark today and he is also the shortest. Five, five, five, six, six, five across his last six starts — a rookie whose workload question nobody in that clubhouse has actually answered, handled carefully by a manager who has said as much. That means four innings of Cincinnati bullpen on a getaway day, and that bullpen just ran Moll, Garcia and Ferguson out on back-to-back nights, with Santillan and Ashcraft still on the shelf behind them. And the club Burns is pitching for hits .230, scores 4.1 a night, and is 25-31 in its own park. Pittsburgh has been miserable for two weeks, but across 112 games it is the better offense by a full run a night, and today it stacks six bats from the left side against a right-hander who has given up eleven of his thirteen home runs to left-handed hitters. Horwitz is back off the injured list in that group. Doval was activated this morning to deepen the back end.
The hole is Keller, obviously — the underlying numbers are worse than the 4.83 and he's been beaten up all summer. What helps him is who's standing in the box: Cincinnati wrote out six right-handed hitters, and right-handers are hitting .196 with a .553 OPS against him this year. The market has already started sliding my way — Pittsburgh was +134 at five this morning and it's +120 now, which tells you where the money went and that I'd rather have had the earlier number. I'll still take this one. If the sky opens the way it did last night, it's Burns who gets pulled early, not Keller, and the side with the deeper bullpen and the better lineup inherits the last four innings. Pirates on the moneyline.
Props on this game
4Nick GonzalesOVER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI+101
LActual 0
He's hitting .354 over his last 15 games with a strikeout rate that says the average isn't an accident — 19% whiff is about as clean a bat-to-ball profile as anyone on this board. He's also a day-game hitter specifically, .323 with an .874 OPS in day games this year, and this one starts at 1:40 in the afternoon.
Yes, he's a right-handed bat drawing the tougher side of Chase Burns's platoon split, and Burns has flat-out owned right-handed hitters this season. But Gonzales isn't a swing-and-miss right-hander — he puts the bat on the ball, and this number only needs one hit plus a run or an RBI to hit.
Combine that contact profile with how hot he's been and the plus-money price on what's basically been an 80 percent outcome over his last 15 games, and I'm taking the number.
Brandon LoweOVER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI-110
LActual 0
Lowe is running a .452 average over his last week with three barreled balls in that stretch — this isn't empty contact, the exit-velocity data backs up the hot streak. He's in the two-hole tonight, which means at-bats and RBI chances both, and Burns, for as dominant as he's been overall, has actually given up more damage to left-handed bats than right — 11 home runs allowed to lefties against just 2 to righties this season. Lowe has cleared this exact number in two out of every three games over his last 15. I don't need him to do anything he hasn't already been doing all week.
Brandon LoweOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+850
LActual 0
Chase Burns has been a completely different pitcher against lefties than righties this season — eleven home runs allowed in 251 at-bats against left-handed hitters, only two in 160 against righties. That's not a small-sample blip, that's a full season of a real weakness, and Lowe is the kind of hitter positioned to exploit it.
He's carrying a .452 average and two home runs over his last seven games, with three barreled balls in his last 22 batted balls — the underlying contact matches the results, this isn't just a hot streak of bloopers. He's hitting second in a Pirates lineup that's actually scoring right now, which means more at-bats and more looks at Burns before the slider starts working.
Great American Ball Park plays small in every direction. Plus-850 on a left-handed hitter seeing the ball this well against a pitcher with this much platoon exposure is a number worth being on.
Sal StewartOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+340
WActual 1
Stewart is the hottest hitter in this game right now — two home runs, nine RBI, and an OPS over 1.000 across his last seven games, with an average exit velocity above 95 that tells me the contact is real and not just a few balls landing right. The matchup isn't clean: Mitch Keller has actually held right-handed hitters to a much lower level than lefties this year, and his sweeper is the exact pitch he leans on to put righties away. But Keller hasn't been a consistent pitcher start to start — he's allowed multiple home runs in a game twice in his last six outings — and Stewart is doing this kind of damage against everybody right now, at home, in a park that plays in his favor. At plus-340 I don't need this a lot more than once every four games to be worth it, and lately he's been clearing that bar.
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