Brewers at Angels
O/U 8.5 · RL Brewers -1.5
Angels +1.5-126
CONF 64%
LLostFinal 3-1
The read
Nice night in Anaheim, and the only thing that changed about this game today happened in a front office, not a training room. The Angels pulled their starting pitcher because the trade deadline is Monday and the phone keeps ringing. The betting market did the rest — Milwaukee was barely favored when I looked this morning, and now they're a solid favorite. That's a big price move for a scratch that isn't even an injury.
Look at who actually takes the mound instead. Brent Suter has barely gone more than an inning in either of his starts this year and threw a bunch of pitches Thursday, so tonight is an opener and then a whole parade of relievers. That part's real. But the bullpen isn't what's been losing games for this team — their relievers threw a clean stretch just last night, a couple of arms are well rested, and they called up fresh help this morning. The rotation is the leak: their starter last night got knocked around, didn't finish five, and got sent down for it. On the other side, Milwaukee's guy is a lefty whose problem is right-handed hitters — they hit him hard and they run into home runs against him, and his main pitch is the one they punish most, while he rarely misses a bat with it. The Angels are stacking their lineup with righties. And he doesn't go deep every time out, so Milwaukee is covering the back half with its own bullpen — one that's had two arms up two days running, another that worked last night, and lost a piece to a trade this morning.
I'm not talking myself into the Angels winning. They've barely scored for two weeks and have lost almost everything for a month. That's not a club you back to go take something. So I'm looking at where the overreaction shows up loudest. At this price the book says Milwaukee wins comfortably most of the time it wins at all — by more than a run in the vast majority of them. Against a team that plays one-run games constantly, in a neutral park, with both bullpens running on fumes late in a long road trip. I'll buy the win. I won't buy the margin. Angels plus the run and a half.
The full analysis
Nine-thirty-eight in Anaheim, clear and 88, and the only thing that changed about this game today happened in an office instead of a training room. The Angels pulled Jose Soriano off the mound because the deadline is Monday and the phone keeps ringing. The board did the rest — Milwaukee was -112 on this game at five o'clock this morning. It's -156 now.
Forty-four cents for a scratch that isn't an injury. Understand what actually walks out there instead: Brent Suter, who has 1.2 and 2.0 innings in his two starts this year and threw 35 pitches Thursday, which makes tonight an opener and a parade. That's real. But the bullpen is not the part of this Angels team that's been handing games away. Fermin, Murphy and Bachman went four and two-thirds scoreless last night, Zeferjahn hasn't worked since the 27th, Natera since the 28th, and Brett Kerry came up this morning. The rotation is the leak — Ryan Johnson gave them 4.1 and five earned last night and got optioned for the trouble. On the other side, Robert Gasser is a left-hander whose problem is right-handed bats: .261 against, nine homers in 153 at-bats, and the sinker he throws better than a fifth of the time gets hit at .341 with a 16 percent whiff rate. The Angels are sending eight righties to the plate. Gasser's last six starts read 6, 5, 3, 7.2, 5.2, 6 — Milwaukee is covering the back half of this game with a pen too, and Anderson and Uribe have been up both of the last two days, Megill worked last night, and Craig Yoho got shipped to Cleveland this morning.
Props on this game
2Jake BauersOVER 0.5 Hits Hits-135
Not yet graded
Jake Bauers is locked in right now — hitting near .530 over his last week with the kind of hard, repeatable contact that tells you it isn't just luck, squaring balls up and rarely missing or chasing out of the zone. He handles left-handed pitching just fine, which matters tonight with Brent Suter starting in relief of a scratched José Soriano, the Angels piecing together a bullpen game on short notice. Facing a pitching staff in that kind of disarray, with the Brewers offense clicking as a whole, I like Bauers to keep finding a hit tonight.
Vaughn GrissomOVER 0.5 RBI RBI+231
Not yet graded
Vaughn Grissom has quietly been the one consistent bat for the Angels in the middle of a miserable stretch for this offense — ten RBI and an .870 OPS over his last fifteen games while most of the rest of this lineup has gone cold around him. He's been the exception keeping this offense from completely bottoming out, showing real pull-side pop and finding barrels even as the team as a whole isn't scoring. Robert Gasser has had more trouble with right-handed bats than lefties this year, and Grissom fits that profile exactly. The price on him driving in a run tonight looks well behind where his recent production actually has him.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. In the app you can ride or fade any of them, and your book keeps score against Gary's.
Download on the App Store