MLB · Wed, Jul 29 · 12:35 PM

Diamondbacks at Pirates

O/U 8.5 · RL Pirates -1.5

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Diamondbacks· -131

Getaway day at PNC Park, and both clubhouses are dragging after a twelve-inning heavyweight fight that ended near midnight — now they turn right around for a 12:35 first pitch with a Wild Card spot hanging between them. Arizona took Tuesday's marathon 8-7 to nudge ahead of Pittsburgh for the third Wild Card, and the rubber match hands the ball to two starters heading in very different directions: Jared Jones and his 98 for the Bucs, Eduardo Rodriguez and his shiny record for the Snakes. This one comes down to how much I trust each starter's surface numbers, and I trust Jones a lot more. Since coming back from the elbow, he's been electric — one earned run or fewer in each of his last three starts, a 1.02 WHIP, and a slider that's getting empty swings more than a third of the time. Rodriguez is 9-3 with a 2.64, but the underlying contact tells a different story: he's been living dangerously all year, the fastball gets hit, and he's coming off getting tagged for five in under three innings against St. Louis two starts back. A Pittsburgh lineup with Brandon Lowe scorching — and Lowe owns three career homers off E-Rod — plus Nick Gonzales hitting near .390 over the last week gives the home side real avenues against a lefty who allows a .718 OPS to righty bats. The tiebreaker is the late innings, and that's where Arizona is in genuine trouble. They burned six relievers in Tuesday's marathon, Paul Sewald just coughed up back-to-back homers in the ninth and admitted afterward he's flat-out struggling, and their manager wouldn't even commit to him keeping the job. If this game is close in the seventh, I want the team whose starter is dealing and who woke up this morning with two fresh arms called up from Indianapolis. Jones is innings-managed, sure, but six strong from him puts Pittsburgh exactly where Arizona doesn't want to be — protecting a lead with a gassed, wobbling bullpen in a day game. Give me the Pirates at home.

The pick & result

Published pick: Pirates ML -131
Published odds: -131
Result: Lost
Final score: 3-0

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Here's the plain-language version of my pick:

**Gary's Take**

Both of these teams are running on fumes. They played a marathon of a game Tuesday night that dragged past midnight, and now they have to turn right back around for an early afternoon game in Pittsburgh with a playoff spot on the line. Arizona won that late-night slugfest to slip just ahead of Pittsburgh in the playoff race, and today's deciding game comes down to two starting pitchers headed in opposite directions: Jared Jones and his blazing fastball for Pittsburgh, and Eduardo Rodriguez, whose win-loss record looks great on paper, for Arizona.

I trust Jones way more. Since coming back from an elbow injury, he's been nearly untouchable — barely giving up any runs in his last three starts, keeping runners off the bases, and throwing a slider that hitters keep swinging at and missing. Rodriguez's numbers look shiny, but hitters have been squaring him up all year, his fastball gets hit hard, and two starts ago St. Louis knocked him out before he could even get through three innings. Pittsburgh's lineup is set up to give him trouble: Brandon Lowe is red-hot and has taken Rodriguez deep three times in his career, Nick Gonzales has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the past week, and right-handed batters in general have always given this lefty problems.

The deciding factor is the late innings, and that's where Arizona is in real trouble. They ran through most of their bullpen in Tuesday's marathon, their closer Paul Sewald just gave up back-to-back home runs and admitted he's struggling, and his own manager wouldn't even say the job is still his. If this game is close late, I want the team whose starter is rolling and who just added two fresh relievers from the minors this morning. Jones is on a pitch limit, sure, but if he gives Pittsburgh six strong innings, Arizona is stuck trying to protect a lead with a worn-out, shaky bullpen in a day game. Give me the Pirates at home.

The full analysis

This one comes down to how much I trust each starter's surface numbers, and I trust Jones a lot more. Since coming back from the elbow, he's been electric — one earned run or fewer in each of his last three starts, a 1.02 WHIP, and a slider that's getting empty swings more than a third of the time. Rodriguez is 9-3 with a 2.64, but the underlying contact tells a different story: he's been living dangerously all year, the fastball gets hit, and he's coming off getting tagged for five in under three innings against St. Louis two starts back. A Pittsburgh lineup with Brandon Lowe scorching — and Lowe owns three career homers off E-Rod — plus Nick Gonzales hitting near .390 over the last week gives the home side real avenues against a lefty who allows a .718 OPS to righty bats.

The tiebreaker is the late innings, and that's where Arizona is in genuine trouble. They burned six relievers in Tuesday's marathon, Paul Sewald just coughed up back-to-back homers in the ninth and admitted afterward he's flat-out struggling, and their manager wouldn't even commit to him keeping the job. If this game is close in the seventh, I want the team whose starter is dealing and who woke up this morning with two fresh arms called up from Indianapolis. Jones is innings-managed, sure, but six strong from him puts Pittsburgh exactly where Arizona doesn't want to be — protecting a lead with a gassed, wobbling bullpen in a day game. Give me the Pirates at home.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

STARTER FORM

Jared Jones: 1.06 ERA over his last 3 starts
1.06
Jones has been dealing — 1.06 ERA over his last three starts, 22 strikeouts in 17 innings — well under his 3.72 season number. That's about as sharp a recent stretch as anyone's carrying into tonight's slate.

PLATOON EDGE

Esmerlyn Valdez (bats R) gets a LHP from the 4th spot
1.367
Valdez has feasted on lefties — 1.367 OPS in 45 at-bats — and he gets exactly that tonight from Rodriguez in the four-hole. Worth a look at how Arizona lines him up.

HEAT CHECK

Nick Gonzales: .918 OPS in Last 15 Days
.918
The last 15 days sample runs 49 PA: a .918 OPS versus .781 for the season, 0.137 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
Nolan Arenado: .904 OPS in Last 15 Days
.904
Over the last 15 days (39 PA) he is at a .904 OPS, up 0.153 on his .751 season mark. He has 14 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.

COOLING OFF

Bryan Reynolds: .547 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
.547
Reynolds has gone cold — .547 OPS his last two weeks versus .842 for the season — but he draws Rodriguez tonight, a lefty, which is actually his better side at .867 for the year. Same tension as a few others on this board.
Ryan O'Hearn: .578 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
.578
O'Hearn's cooled to .578 over his last two weeks from an .807 season mark, and tonight's matchup against Rodriguez, a lefty, is already his weaker side at .658. Everything's lining up against him right now.

HR THREAT

Esmerlyn Valdez
+341
Gary's Take Valdez has gone deep 4 times in his last 15 games and he's over this number in 7 of them — that's a real recent power stretch, not a hot night getting extrapolated. The matchup lines up with it.

BULLPEN

Pittsburgh Pirates pen: 15.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
15.7 IP
Pittsburgh's bullpen has thrown 15.7 innings over three games with three arms doing it more than once. Worth watching how deep Jared Jones needs to go tonight given that.
Arizona Diamondbacks pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
12.7 IP
Arizona's bullpen has thrown 12.7 innings over three games with five different arms working more than once. Spread thin rather than overworked on any single arm.

FIRST INNING

PIT have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
0/10
Pittsburgh hasn't scored in the first inning in 10 straight games. Jared Jones has been lights out early too — 1.80 ERA in first innings this year.

PARK WEATHER

Wind blowing out 14 mph at PNC Park tonight
OUT 14
Wind blowing out at 10 mph in Pittsburgh with a total sitting at 8.5. That's the kind of night air gets talked about in the dugout before first pitch.

SITUATIONAL

PIT's pen has logged 15.7 innings across its last 3 games
15.7
Pittsburgh's pen sits at 15.7 innings over three games, Eisert and Mlodzinski the busiest arms. Arizona's bullpen is a bit fresher at 12.7 over the same stretch.

TEAM RECORD

Diamondbacks 6-1 in Eduardo Rodriguez's last 7 starts
6-1
Arizona's 6-1 with E-Rod going, three straight wins in his starts. Worth checking whether Pittsburgh's lineup construction gives him trouble regardless of that recent run.

REGRESSION

Eduardo Rodriguez: 2.64 ERA vs 5 xERA
5
E-Rod's 2.64 ERA sits almost two and a half runs under his 4.99 expected mark. That's one of the bigger gaps on the slate tonight and lines are still built off the shinier number.
Esmerlyn Valdez: .285 AVG vs .227 xBA
.227
Valdez's .285 average is running well ahead of his .227 expected number, and his wOBA's telling the same story. Statcast likes his contact less than the results suggest — something to watch going forward.

CLOSER WATCH

Paul Sewald
24 SV
Paul Sewald owns the ninth for the Diamondbacks — 24 saves this season (next closest: Jonathan Loaisiga with 1).

FANTASY PICKUPS

Bryan Reynolds
.842 OPS
Pickup vs Eduardo Rodriguez (4.99 xERA) — .842 OPS, bats 3rd.
Ryan O'Hearn
.807 OPS
Pickup vs Eduardo Rodriguez (4.99 xERA) — .807 OPS, bats 5th.
Brandon Lowe
.809 OPS
Pickup vs Eduardo Rodriguez (4.99 xERA) — .809 OPS, bats 2nd.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored July 29, 2026 at 10:41 AM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, betmgm, draftkings, caesars, betrivers.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
NICK GONZALESH+R+RBI OVER 1.5
MLBPittsburgh Pirates· -153
LOST · ACTUAL 1
Gonzales is the hottest bat in this lineup and nobody's talking about him. He's 12 for his last 31, 18 for 49 over two weeks, and he's a career .325 hitter in day games — which is what this is, first pitch just after noon. Now hand him a lefty. He hits leadoff, so he's getting five looks in a lineup that's been putting up runs at home, with Lowe and Reynolds behind him to cash the runs-scored side of this ticket. He's gone over this combined number in eleven of his last fifteen games. When a hitter is seeing it this well and the matchup tilts his way, I don't overthink it. The juice is fair for how many ways this one gets there.
Nick Gonzales
H+R+RBI over 1.5
-153 · LOST · ACTUAL 1
Pittsburgh Pirates
Gonzales is the hottest bat in this lineup and nobody's talking about him. He's 12 for his last 31, 18 for 49 over two weeks, and he's a career .325 hitter in day games — which is what this is, first pitch just after noon. Now hand him a lefty.
He hits leadoff, so he's getting five looks in a lineup that's been putting up runs at home, with Lowe and Reynolds behind him to cash the runs-scored side of this ticket. He's gone over this combined number in eleven of his last fifteen games. When a hitter is seeing it this well and the matchup tilts his way, I don't overthink it.
The juice is fair for how many ways this one gets there.
GARY'S PICK
ESMERLYN VALDEZTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
MLBPittsburgh Pirates· +120
LOST · ACTUAL 0
This is the spot I circle before I even look at the price. Valdez against a left-handed starter is a different hitter — he's hitting .333 with seven homers in just 45 at-bats against lefties this year, and in day games he's slugging over 1.300 OPS territory. Today is both. Eduardo Rodriguez lives on a 92 mph fastball and a sinker that right-handed bats have been squaring up all season, and Valdez feasts on exactly that diet — he's slugging .659 against four-seamers and .870 against sinkers. He's cleared this number in ten of his last fifteen, and I'm getting plus money on it. The swing-and-miss in his game is real, but Rodriguez isn't the guy who exposes it. Two bases feels like the floor for this matchup, not the ceiling.
Esmerlyn Valdez
Total Bases over 1.5
+120 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Pittsburgh Pirates
This is the spot I circle before I even look at the price. Valdez against a left-handed starter is a different hitter — he's hitting .333 with seven homers in just 45 at-bats against lefties this year, and in day games he's slugging over 1.300 OPS territory. Today is both.
Eduardo Rodriguez lives on a 92 mph fastball and a sinker that right-handed bats have been squaring up all season, and Valdez feasts on exactly that diet — he's slugging .659 against four-seamers and .870 against sinkers. He's cleared this number in ten of his last fifteen, and I'm getting plus money on it. The swing-and-miss in his game is real, but Rodriguez isn't the guy who exposes it.
Two bases feels like the floor for this matchup, not the ceiling.
THE LONG SHOT
ESMERLYN VALDEZHR OVER 0.5
MLBPittsburgh Pirates· +341
LOST · ACTUAL 0
Valdez has gone deep 4 times in his last 15 games and he's over this number in 7 of them — that's a real recent power stretch, not a hot night getting extrapolated. The matchup lines up with it. He's a right-handed bat with a huge track record against lefties (1.367 OPS, 7 homers in just 45 at-bats), and Eduardo Rodriguez throws left. This is also a day game, and Valdez's day splits are the loudest number on this whole card — 10 homers in 56 at-bats with a 1.319 OPS in sunlight. Rodriguez's ERA says ace, but his expected numbers tell a different story: a 4.99 xERA and .341 xwOBA allowed against a 2.64 actual ERA is a pitcher who's been running better than the contact quality against him deserves. He's also barreled up plenty this year (9.3% barrel rate, 36.3% hard-hit allowed). Put a power-vs-lefty bat with strong day production against a pitcher whose results are outrunning his peripherals, and the price on one swing feels generous.
Esmerlyn Valdez
HR over 0.5
+341 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Pittsburgh Pirates
Valdez has gone deep 4 times in his last 15 games and he's over this number in 7 of them — that's a real recent power stretch, not a hot night getting extrapolated. The matchup lines up with it. He's a right-handed bat with a huge track record against lefties (1.367 OPS, 7 homers in just 45 at-bats), and Eduardo Rodriguez throws left.
This is also a day game, and Valdez's day splits are the loudest number on this whole card — 10 homers in 56 at-bats with a 1.319 OPS in sunlight. Rodriguez's ERA says ace, but his expected numbers tell a different story: a 4.99 xERA and .341 xwOBA allowed against a 2.64 actual ERA is a pitcher who's been running better than the contact quality against him deserves. He's also barreled up plenty this year (9.3% barrel rate, 36.3% hard-hit allowed).
Put a power-vs-lefty bat with strong day production against a pitcher whose results are outrunning his peripherals, and the price on one swing feels generous.
THE LONG SHOT
CORBIN CARROLLHR OVER 0.5
MLBArizona Diamondbacks· +340
LOST · ACTUAL 0
Carroll's contact quality over the last week is the headline here — 96 mph average exit velocity with 5 barrels on just 23 balls in play. That's a hitter squaring the ball up right now, not just running good BABIP luck. He's also a lefty bat, and Jared Jones has shown a real gap in how he's handled the two sides this year — a .788 OPS and 5 homers allowed to lefties in 101 at-bats, against a .406 OPS and 1 homer to righties in 69. That split is a meaningfully larger sample on the lefty side, and Carroll's day-game numbers back it up too — .924 OPS with 8 homers in 154 day at-bats this season. He's got no history against Jones specifically, so there's no book on how Jones has attacked him before, but the shape of this matchup — hot contact, favorable platoon history for the pitcher, day game power — is enough to like the swing at plus-money.
Corbin Carroll
HR over 0.5
+340 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Arizona Diamondbacks
Carroll's contact quality over the last week is the headline here — 96 mph average exit velocity with 5 barrels on just 23 balls in play. That's a hitter squaring the ball up right now, not just running good BABIP luck.
He's also a lefty bat, and Jared Jones has shown a real gap in how he's handled the two sides this year — a .788 OPS and 5 homers allowed to lefties in 101 at-bats, against a .406 OPS and 1 homer to righties in 69. That split is a meaningfully larger sample on the lefty side, and Carroll's day-game numbers back it up too — .924 OPS with 8 homers in 154 day at-bats this season.
He's got no history against Jones specifically, so there's no book on how Jones has attacked him before, but the shape of this matchup — hot contact, favorable platoon history for the pitcher, day game power — is enough to like the swing at plus-money.

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