Padres at Marlins
O/U 8.5 · RL Marlins -1.5
Padres ML+104
CONF 59%
WCashedFinal 5-3
The read
Miami has lost a lot in a row, but that’s not why I’m making this pick. I don’t want to back them as the favorite with Janson Junk facing a San Diego lineup that is finally starting to hit.
I’m taking the Padres to win. Left-handed hitters have had plenty of success against Junk, and San Diego can use several left-handed or switch hitters against him. France, Merrill, Rengifo and Machado are all hitting well, while Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon are rested to follow Buehler. The starting pitchers are too evenly matched for Miami to be favored.
The full analysis
Miami’s skid has reached 11, but the streak itself isn’t my handicap. The problem is being asked to lay -126 with Janson Junk against a San Diego lineup that has finally found some traction.
Pick: Padres ML +104. Junk has allowed left-handed hitters a .321 average and .885 OPS, and the Padres can send five left-handed or switch hitters at him. France, Merrill, Rengifo and Machado are all swinging well, while Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon are rested behind Buehler. The starters are too comparable for Miami to deserve this price.
Props on this game
1Jackson MerrillOVER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI-111
WActual 4
**THE PICK:** Jackson Merrill OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-111)
**MATCHUP:** Jackson Merrill (LHB) vs. Janson Junk (RHP)
**THE KEY FACTOR:** Marlins starter Janson Junk has displayed a severe platoon split weakness against left-handed batters all season, allowing a .321 AVG, .885 OPS, and 6 HR across 168 ABs to LHBs. Merrill enters today coming off a 3-for-4 performance yesterday with two doubles and two runs scored. Over his last 5 games, Merrill has generated multi-category production, accumulating 5, 4, and 4 combined Hits+Runs+RBIs in 3 of those 5 contests. Junk has surrendered 23 ER and 7 HR over his last 24.2 IP (8.39 ERA in L5 starts), creating a fertile environment for left-handed hitters. At -111 odds, the required break-even probability is 52.6%.
**PARK/WEATHER CHECK:** loanDepot park, Roof Closed, 72°F, Wind: 0 mph.
**VOLUME FLOOR:** Merrill bats 5th in the Padres order behind Tatis Jr., Cronenworth, Machado, and France. With San Diego scoring 11 runs in the first two games of this series and a game total set at 8.5, Merrill is positioned for 4+ plate appearances with ample run-producing and scoring opportunities.
**THE RISK:** Junk locates his sinker (93.5 mph) down in the zone to generate groundouts, while the Marlins bullpen suppresses late-inning scoring, leaving Merrill with a single or walk that falls just short of the 2-plus requirement.
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