Cubs at Pirates
O/U 9 · RL Pirates -1.5
Cubs ML+109
CONF 59%
LLostFinal 7-8
The read
Chicago has won the first two games, Pittsburgh has barely scored lately, and I’m still getting an underdog price on the better team.
My pick is the Cubs to win. Ashcraft has been better over the full season, but he has been hit hard in his last two starts. The Cubs are hitting well, their top relief pitchers are rested, and Pittsburgh’s struggling lineup gives Taillon a chance despite his recent shaky form. I’ll take Chicago to complete the sweep.
The full analysis
Chicago has taken the first two, Pittsburgh has scored twice in its last three games, and now the better team is still catching plus money.
Pick: Cubs ML +109. Ashcraft owns the stronger season numbers, but he has allowed 12 earned runs over eight innings in his last two starts. The Cubs are swinging it well, their best relievers are rested, and Pittsburgh’s cold lineup gives Taillon a chance to survive his shaky form. I’ll take Chicago to finish the sweep.
Props on this game
1Pete Crow-ArmstrongOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+105
WActual 3
Pete Crow-Armstrong is currently locked into an elite offensive groove at the plate. Over his last 7 games, the Cubs leadoff man is hitting .409 (9-for-22) with a massive 1.490 OPS, including 2 HR and 6 RBI.
That hot streak has carried directly into this series at PNC Park, where he has gone 6-for-9 with two home runs, two doubles, and 4 RBI across the first two games (including a 4-for-5, 9-total-base explosion on Saturday). Tonight, Crow-Armstrong draws a highly favorable platoon matchup against Pirates starter Braxton Ashcraft.
While Ashcraft holds right-handed batters to a stingy .610 OPS, he exhibits significant vulnerability against lefties, surrendering a .763 OPS and all 13 of his season home runs allowed to left-handed hitters (across 253 AB). Batting in the leadoff spot guarantees Crow-Armstrong 4 to 5 plate appearances, giving him prime opportunity to clear 1.5 total bases via extra-base power or multiple hits against a starter who yields fly-ball damage to lefties.
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