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MLB · Sun, Jul 26 · 1:35 PM

Cubs at Pirates

O/U 9 · RL Pirates -1.5

GARY'S PICK
Cubs Moneyline
MLB@ Pirates· +109
LOST · CHC 7 · PIT 8

Cubs
Moneyline

+109 · LOST · CHC 7 · PIT 8

Pirates

The pick & result

Published pick
Cubs ML +109
Published odds
+109
Result
Lost
Final score
7-8

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Chicago has won the first two games, Pittsburgh has barely scored lately, and I’m still getting an underdog price on the better team.

My pick is the Cubs to win. Ashcraft has been better over the full season, but he has been hit hard in his last two starts. The Cubs are hitting well, their top relief pitchers are rested, and Pittsburgh’s struggling lineup gives Taillon a chance despite his recent shaky form. I’ll take Chicago to complete the sweep.

The full analysis

Chicago has taken the first two, Pittsburgh has scored twice in its last three games, and now the better team is still catching plus money.

Pick: Cubs ML +109. Ashcraft owns the stronger season numbers, but he has allowed 12 earned runs over eight innings in his last two starts. The Cubs are swinging it well, their best relievers are rested, and Pittsburgh’s cold lineup gives Taillon a chance to survive his shaky form. I’ll take Chicago to finish the sweep.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

STARTER FORM

  • Braxton Ashcraft: 8.56 ERA over his last 3 starts

    8.56

    Across his last 3 starts (13.7 IP) he has been tagged for 13 earned runs — a 8.56 ERA with a 1.83 WHIP (1.17 season) against a 3.95 season mark.

COOLING OFF

  • Bryan Reynolds: .533 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Jameson Taillon

    .533

    Bryan Reynolds's .533 OPS over the last 15 days (40 PA) trails his .837 season mark, down 0.304. Tonight he draws RHP Jameson Taillon — his weaker side: a .817 OPS vs RHP across 250 AB.

FIRST INNING

  • PIT have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10

    1/10

    Pittsburgh Pirates have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.

TEAM RECORD

  • Cubs 2-6 in Jameson Taillon's last 8 starts

    2-6

    Cubs are 2-6 in Jameson Taillon's last 8 starts this season — losers of his last 3 in a row. He starts tonight.

REGRESSION

  • Esmerlyn Valdez: .283 AVG vs .222 xBA

    .222

    Esmerlyn Valdez's .283 average comes against a .222 expected (xBA) on 139 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .439 against a .364 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.

  • Nico Hoerner: .244 AVG vs .293 xBA

    .293

    Nico Hoerner is hitting .244 against a .293 expected average (xBA) over 455 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .289 against a .321 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.

CLOSER WATCH

  • Jacob Webb / Daniel Palencia

    5 SV

    Jacob Webb and Daniel Palencia are operating in a committee where both see ninth-inning chances for the Cubs. This narrow margin of five saves for Webb and three for Palencia suggests a fluid situation for managers hunting saves in Chicago. Handcuff both if you chase saves.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored July 26, 2026 at 10:46 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

1
  • GARY'S PICK
    PETE CROW-ARMSTRONGTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
    MLBChicago Cubs· +105
    ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 3

    Pete Crow-Armstrong
    Total Bases over 1.5

    +105 · CASHED · ACTUAL 3

    Chicago Cubs

    Pete Crow-Armstrong is currently locked into an elite offensive groove at the plate. Over his last 7 games, the Cubs leadoff man is hitting .409 (9-for-22) with a massive 1.490 OPS, including 2 HR and 6 RBI.

    That hot streak has carried directly into this series at PNC Park, where he has gone 6-for-9 with two home runs, two doubles, and 4 RBI across the first two games (including a 4-for-5, 9-total-base explosion on Saturday). Tonight, Crow-Armstrong draws a highly favorable platoon matchup against Pirates starter Braxton Ashcraft.

    While Ashcraft holds right-handed batters to a stingy .610 OPS, he exhibits significant vulnerability against lefties, surrendering a .763 OPS and all 13 of his season home runs allowed to left-handed hitters (across 253 AB). Batting in the leadoff spot guarantees Crow-Armstrong 4 to 5 plate appearances, giving him prime opportunity to clear 1.5 total bases via extra-base power or multiple hits against a starter who yields fly-ball damage to lefties.

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