Dodgers at Mets
O/U 8.5 · RL Dodgers -1.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Dodgers ML -150
- Published odds
- -150
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 3-8
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
The price on Los Angeles to complete the sweep is a little steep, and the Dodgers are finishing a long road trip, so I’m not asking them to win by a certain amount. But if the starting pitchers are about even, the Dodgers have the important advantages everywhere else.
Sheehan’s results look worse than how he has actually pitched, and his slider and curveball have kept hitters from doing much damage. Peralta has also pitched better than his results, but left-handed hitters have hit him hard and shown plenty of power. Los Angeles can counter with Ohtani, Freeman, Muncy and Tucker. The Dodgers also have the better offense, defense and late-game pitching, while the Mets have scored fewer than three runs per game lately. I’ll back the better team simply to win.
The full analysis
The sweep price is a little heavy, and Los Angeles is closing a 10-game road trip, so I’m not asking for margin. But if the starters mostly cancel out, the Dodgers own the meaningful edges everywhere else.
Sheehan’s 5.13 ERA is harsher than his 3.89 xERA, and both his slider and curve have limited expected damage. Peralta has similar positive-regression indicators, but he’s allowed an .805 OPS and 13 homers to left-handed hitters; Los Angeles can send Ohtani, Freeman, Muncy and Tucker at him. Add the Dodgers’ superior offense, defense and late-game pitching against a Mets club averaging 2.8 runs over its last 10, and I’ll pay for the better team to win without laying 1.5.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
COOLING OFF
A.J. Ewing: .467 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Emmet Sheehan
.467A.J. Ewing's .467 OPS over the last 15 days (44 PA) trails his .743 season mark, down 0.276. Tonight he draws RHP Emmet Sheehan — his stronger side: a .744 OPS vs RHP across 174 AB.
FIRST INNING
LAD have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
1/10Los Angeles Dodgers have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
BALLPARK
Freddy Peralta's ERA drops to 4.08 at Citi Field
4.08Freddy Peralta carries a 4.08 ERA over 12 games (64 IP) at Citi Field vs 6.31 across 45.7 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .239 off him here.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Dodgers are 5-0 vs Mets this season
5-0Dodgers lead the season series 5-0 over Mets. LAD won the last meeting 4-3.
TEAM RECORD
Dodgers 1-7 in Emmet Sheehan's last 8 starts
1-7Dodgers are 1-7 in Emmet Sheehan's last 8 starts this season — losers of his last 3 in a row. He starts tonight.
Mets 2-6 in Freddy Peralta's last 8 starts
2-6Mets are 2-6 in Freddy Peralta's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
REGRESSION
Emmet Sheehan: 5.13 ERA vs 3.88 xERA
3.88Emmet Sheehan carries a 5.13 ERA against a 3.88 expected ERA (1.25 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .249 off him vs a .232 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
Freddy Peralta: 5.01 ERA vs 3.82 xERA
3.82Freddy Peralta carries a 5.01 ERA against a 3.82 expected ERA (1.19 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .261 off him vs a .235 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
CUT LIST
Jorge Polanco
0.437 OPSPolanco provides a dismal .154 batting average and a .437 OPS while hitting fifth for the Mets. Starting a player with these numbers tonight ruins team batting categories while he occupies a run-producing spot in the lineup. Cut him in all standard formats.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored July 26, 2026 at 10:46 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
1- GARY'S PICKFREDDIE FREEMANTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
Freddie Freeman enters Sunday in exceptional form, having recorded three hits in each of his last three starts (July 22 @ PHI, July 24 @ NYM, July 25 @ NYM), going 9-for-12 (.750) over that stretch. On the season, Freeman is hitting .299 with an .868 OPS, with his splits spiking to .323 AVG and a .935 OPS against right-handed pitching.
He faces Mets starter Freddy Peralta (5-9, 5.01 ERA), who has displayed significant platoon vulnerability against left-handed batters, yielding a .267 AVG, .805 OPS, and 13 home runs in 285 ABs to LHBs. Batting third in the Dodgers order guarantees 4 to 5 plate appearances.
At +117 odds, the break-even threshold is 46%, making this over line an attractive edge given Freeman's current form and platoon advantage.
Every prop from this day is on the archive page.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.
Get Gary on the App StoreEvery MLB game this dayThe MLB recordToday's MLB picksEvery sport this day