Washington Commanders picks

Sunday night at Northwest Stadium, and these aren't the teams that met in Week 1. Washington comes off a bye with Jayden Daniels healthy. Philadelphia arrives on a short week with Tanner McKee at quarterback and an injury list that keeps growing. That 24-22 Eagles win in September came with Jalen Hurts. In McKee's two starts, both at home, Philadelphia lost 25-14 to Carolina and 38-21 to Dallas, two 3-4 teams, and was outscored 63-35. The roster is thinner now. DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks are out again. Dameon Pierce led the backfield in carries in both McKee starts and is now on IR with Tank Bigsby and Will Shipley. Saquon Barkley sat out Wednesday and Thursday, was limited Saturday and played 15% of snaps last week. Jihaad Campbell, an every-down linebacker for most of the year, is out, and so is Britain Covey on returns. The defense is leaking too. It has allowed 375-plus yards in five straight games, gave up 204 rushing yards to Dallas last week, has five sacks in its last five games and forced zero takeaways in McKee's starts. Then there's rest: the Eagles have six days after a Monday night game, while Washington has had 13. Daniels practiced fully all week and has no giveaways in three full starts. Here's the risk. Washington hasn't won by more than two all year, and it struggles to finish drives, converting 3 of 12 and 4 of 12 on third down in its last two games. Its defense has allowed at least 23 points every week and just lost Daron Payne and Javon Kinlaw from the interior. If the Eagles hit 21 again, Washington needs 27, which would match its best output with Daniels. I expect Philadelphia to look more like the team that scored 14 against Carolina than the one that scored 21 against Dallas. At -122 this is a lean, not a hammer, and I wouldn't lay more than 5.5. Check Barkley's status before kickoff. A full-go Barkley running at that thinned-out Washington interior is the Eagles' best path.