Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
O/U 40.5 · SPREAD Washington Commanders -5.5 · Northwest Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Washington Commanders -5.5 -122
- Published odds
- -122
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 10-27
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 67 moves| Market | Opened Oct 25 7:53 PM | Close Sun 7:50 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Washington Commanders -4 (-108) | Washington Commanders -6 (-110) | +2 |
| TOTAL | 41 (-108) | 40.5 (-108) | −½ |
| MONEYLINE | Washington Commanders -190 | Washington Commanders -250 | −60 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 25 7:53 PM | Washington Commanders -4 (-108) | 41 (-108) | Washington Commanders -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +160 |
| Oct 25 9:23 PM | Washington Commanders -4 (-108) | 40.5 (-110) | Washington Commanders -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +160 |
| Oct 25 10:53 PM | Washington Commanders -4 (-108) | 40.5 (-110) | Washington Commanders -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +160 |
| Oct 25 11:23 PM | Washington Commanders -4 (-108) | 40.5 (-110) | Washington Commanders -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +160 |
| Oct 26 11:32 AM | Washington Commanders -4 (-105) | 40.5 (-108) | Washington Commanders -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +160 |
| Oct 26 12:02 PM | Washington Commanders -4 (-108) | 40.5 (-108) | Washington Commanders -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +155 |
| Oct 26 3:03 PM | Washington Commanders -4 (-108) | 40.5 (-108) | Washington Commanders -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +160 |
| Oct 26 4:03 PM | Washington Commanders -4 (-108) | 40.5 (-108) | Washington Commanders -190 · Philadelphia Eagles +160 |
| Oct 26 6:56 PM | Washington Commanders -3.5 (-118) | 40.5 (-108) | Washington Commanders -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +160 |
| Oct 26 8:06 PM | Washington Commanders -4 (-108) | 40.5 (-108) | Washington Commanders -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +160 |
| Oct 27 12:49 AM | Washington Commanders -4 (-110) | 40.5 (-110) | Washington Commanders -200 · Philadelphia Eagles +165 |
| Oct 27 9:31 AM | Washington Commanders -4 (-112) | 41 (-110) | Washington Commanders -210 · Philadelphia Eagles +170 |
| Oct 27 10:31 AM | Washington Commanders -4 (-112) | 41 (-105) | Washington Commanders -210 · Philadelphia Eagles +170 |
| Oct 27 12:01 PM | Washington Commanders -4.5 (-110) | 41 (-108) | Washington Commanders -210 · Philadelphia Eagles +175 |
| Oct 27 1:01 PM | Washington Commanders -4.5 (-110) | 41 (-110) | Washington Commanders -220 · Philadelphia Eagles +180 |
| Oct 27 2:01 PM | Washington Commanders -5 (-110) | 40 (-120) | Washington Commanders -235 · Philadelphia Eagles +195 |
| Oct 27 3:01 PM | Washington Commanders -5 (-110) | 40 (-108) | Washington Commanders -235 · Philadelphia Eagles +195 |
| Oct 27 10:05 PM | Washington Commanders -5 (-110) | 40 (-112) | Washington Commanders -235 · Philadelphia Eagles +195 |
| Oct 28 12:17 PM | Washington Commanders -5.5 (-110) | 40 (-110) | Washington Commanders -235 · Philadelphia Eagles +195 |
| Oct 28 1:48 PM | Washington Commanders -5.5 (-110) | 40 (-110) | Washington Commanders -235 · Philadelphia Eagles +200 |
| Oct 28 4:48 PM | Washington Commanders -5.5 (-112) | 40 (-112) | Washington Commanders -235 · Philadelphia Eagles +200 |
| Oct 28 6:48 PM | Washington Commanders -5.5 (-112) | 40 (-112) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +220 |
| Thu 2:02 PM | Washington Commanders -6 (-110) | 40 (-110) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +220 |
| Fri 12:28 AM | Washington Commanders -6 (-112) | 40 (-110) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +220 |
| Fri 1:55 AM | Washington Commanders -6 (-120) | 40 (-110) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +220 |
| Fri 9:00 AM | Washington Commanders -6 (-120) | 40 (-112) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +220 |
| Fri 10:01 AM | Washington Commanders -6 (-110) | 40 (-120) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +210 |
| Fri 11:37 AM | Washington Commanders -6 (-110) | 40.5 (-108) | Washington Commanders -250 · Philadelphia Eagles +210 |
| Fri 12:38 PM | Washington Commanders -6 (-110) | 40 (-112) | Washington Commanders -250 · Philadelphia Eagles +210 |
| Fri 4:02 PM | Washington Commanders -6 (-108) | 40 (-110) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +210 |
| Fri 5:02 PM | Washington Commanders -6 (-108) | 40 (-120) | Washington Commanders -250 · Philadelphia Eagles +210 |
| Fri 6:02 PM | Washington Commanders -6 (-108) | 40 (-110) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +210 |
| Fri 7:02 PM | Washington Commanders -6 (-110) | 40 (-110) | Washington Commanders -250 · Philadelphia Eagles +210 |
| Fri 8:02 PM | Washington Commanders -6 (-108) | 40 (-110) | Washington Commanders -250 · Philadelphia Eagles +210 |
| Fri 8:52 PM | Washington Commanders -5.5 (-112) | 40 (-112) | Washington Commanders -250 · Philadelphia Eagles +210 |
| Sat 12:03 AM | Washington Commanders -5.5 (-112) | 40 (-112) | Washington Commanders -250 · Philadelphia Eagles +210 |
| Sat 9:00 AM | Washington Commanders -5.5 (-112) | 40 (-110) | Washington Commanders -250 · Philadelphia Eagles +210 |
| Sat 10:01 AM | Washington Commanders -5.5 (-112) | 40 (-112) | Washington Commanders -250 · Philadelphia Eagles +210 |
| Sat 1:32 PM | Washington Commanders -6 (-108) | 40 (-110) | Washington Commanders -250 · Philadelphia Eagles +210 |
| Sat 3:02 PM | Washington Commanders -6 (-110) | 40 (-110) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +210 |
| Sat 4:34 PM | Washington Commanders -6 (-110) | 40 (-112) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +220 |
| Sat 5:34 PM | Washington Commanders -6 (-108) | 40 (-112) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +225 |
| Sun 6:00 AM | Washington Commanders -6 (-112) | 40 (-110) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +225 |
| Sun 6:30 AM | Washington Commanders -6.5 (-108) | 40 (-120) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +220 |
| Sun 7:01 AM | Washington Commanders -6.5 (-110) | 40 (-112) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +220 |
| Sun 7:31 AM | Washington Commanders -6.5 (-108) | 40 (-112) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +225 |
| Sun 8:01 AM | Washington Commanders -6.5 (-108) | 40 (-110) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +225 |
| Sun 8:31 AM | Washington Commanders -6.5 (-108) | 40 (-112) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +225 |
| Sun 10:21 AM | Washington Commanders -6.5 (-108) | 40 (-110) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +225 |
| Sun 10:51 AM | Washington Commanders -6 (-110) | 40 (-112) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +225 |
| Sun 11:32 AM | Washington Commanders -6 (-110) | 40 (-112) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +220 |
| Sun 11:42 AM | Washington Commanders -6 (-110) | 40 (-112) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +220 |
| Sun 11:52 AM | Washington Commanders -6 (-110) | 40 (-110) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +220 |
| Sun 1:43 PM | Washington Commanders -6 (-110) | 40 (-110) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +210 |
| Sun 2:04 PM | Washington Commanders -6 (-108) | 40 (-110) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +210 |
| Sun 3:05 PM | Washington Commanders -6 (-108) | 40 (-112) | Washington Commanders -250 · Philadelphia Eagles +210 |
| Sun 3:35 PM | Washington Commanders -6 (-108) | 40 (-108) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +220 |
| Sun 5:20 PM | Washington Commanders -6 (-108) | 40 (-112) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +220 |
| Sun 5:50 PM | Washington Commanders -5.5 (-112) | 40 (-112) | Washington Commanders -250 · Philadelphia Eagles +210 |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Washington Commanders -5.5 (-112) | 40 (-112) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +210 |
| Sun 6:10 PM | Washington Commanders -6 (-110) | 40 (-112) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +220 |
| Sun 6:20 PM | Washington Commanders -6 (-112) | 40 (-120) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +220 |
| Sun 6:40 PM | Washington Commanders -5.5 (-120) | 40 (-112) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +220 |
| Sun 6:50 PM | Washington Commanders -5.5 (-110) | 40 (-112) | Washington Commanders -250 · Philadelphia Eagles +210 |
| Sun 7:00 PM | Washington Commanders -5.5 (-112) | 40 (-112) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +210 |
| Sun 7:10 PM | Washington Commanders -6 (-110) | 40 (-112) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +220 |
| Sun 7:20 PM | Washington Commanders -6 (-110) | 40 (-110) | Washington Commanders -275 · Philadelphia Eagles +220 |
| CLOSESun 7:50 PM | Washington Commanders -6 (-110) | 40.5 (-108) | Washington Commanders -250 · Philadelphia Eagles +210 |
The read
Sunday night at Northwest Stadium, and these aren't the teams that met in Week 1. Washington comes off a bye with Jayden Daniels healthy. Philadelphia arrives on a short week with Tanner McKee at quarterback and an injury list that keeps growing.
That 24-22 Eagles win in September came with Jalen Hurts. In McKee's two starts, both at home, Philadelphia lost 25-14 to Carolina and 38-21 to Dallas, two 3-4 teams, and was outscored 63-35. The roster is thinner now. DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks are out again. Dameon Pierce led the backfield in carries in both McKee starts and is now on IR with Tank Bigsby and Will Shipley. Saquon Barkley sat out Wednesday and Thursday, was limited Saturday and played 15% of snaps last week. Jihaad Campbell, an every-down linebacker for most of the year, is out, and so is Britain Covey on returns.
The defense is leaking too. It has allowed 375-plus yards in five straight games, gave up 204 rushing yards to Dallas last week, has five sacks in its last five games and forced zero takeaways in McKee's starts. Then there's rest: the Eagles have six days after a Monday night game, while Washington has had 13. Daniels practiced fully all week and has no giveaways in three full starts.
Here's the risk. Washington hasn't won by more than two all year, and it struggles to finish drives, converting 3 of 12 and 4 of 12 on third down in its last two games. Its defense has allowed at least 23 points every week and just lost Daron Payne and Javon Kinlaw from the interior. If the Eagles hit 21 again, Washington needs 27, which would match its best output with Daniels.
I expect Philadelphia to look more like the team that scored 14 against Carolina than the one that scored 21 against Dallas. At -122 this is a lean, not a hammer, and I wouldn't lay more than 5.5. Check Barkley's status before kickoff. A full-go Barkley running at that thinned-out Washington interior is the Eagles' best path.
Injuries noted
Philadelphia Eagles: Jakorian Bennett (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full. Bennett (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Commanders.; Andre' Sam (IR) — Sam (foot) reverted to the Eagles' injured-reserve list Monday.; Johnny Wilson (IR) — Wilson (knee) reverted to Philadelphia's injured reserve Saturday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Tank Bigsby (IR) — The Eagles placed Bigsby (abdomen) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Will Shipley (IR) — The Eagles placed Shipley (foot) on injured reserve Friday.; Jalen Hurts (IR) — Hurts (calf) is expected to be held out of football activities for multiple months and miss the rest of the season after new imaging over the weekend revealed several blood clots in his lungs.; DeVonta Smith (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: hamstring; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 DNP. Smith (hamstring) is listed as out for Sunday night's game against the Commanders.; Dontayvion Wicks (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 DNP. Wicks (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday night's game against the Commanders.; Britain Covey (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 DNP. Covey (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Commanders.; Dameon Pierce (IR) — The Eagles placed Pierce (undisclosed) on injured reserve Wednesday; Jihaad Campbell (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: hamstring, quadricep; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 DNP. Campbell (hamstring/quadriceps) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against Washington.; Jonathan Jones (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: hamstring; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 DNP.; Dallas Goedert (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Saquon Barkley (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: hamstring, back; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 Limited.; Marcus Epps (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: jaw; practice by report day: Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Jonathan Greenard (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Zack Baun (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: shoulder; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Michael Carter II (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: abdomen; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Landon Dickerson (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: pectoral; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Arnold Ebiketie (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: shoulder; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Moro Ojomo (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: neck; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Limited.; Tyler Steen (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: shoulder; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Nolan Smith (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: concussion; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Jalyx Hunt (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: knee, ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Limited.; Smael Mondon Jr. (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Drew Kendall (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.
Washington Commanders: Laremy Tunsil (IR) — Tunsil (triceps) could potentially return late in the season.; Jer'Zhan Newton (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: pectoral; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Limited. Newton (pectoral) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Eagles.; Jaylin Lane (IR) — Lane underwent surgery Oct. 9 to repair his fractured and dislocated ankle, and he is expected to be cleared for activities before OTAs.; Charles Omenihu (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: groin, ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Limited.; Leo Chenal (IR) — The Commanders placed Chenal (neck) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Jacory Croskey-Merritt (IR) — The Commanders placed Croskey-Merritt (groin) on injured reserve Monday.; Javontae Jean-Baptiste (IR) — The Commanders placed Jean-Baptiste (pectoral) on injured reserve Monday.; Terry McLaurin (IR) — McLaurin (knee) underwent surgery Friday to repair the torn patellar tendon in his left knee.; Javon Kinlaw (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 DNP. Kinlaw (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Eagles.; John Bates (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: shoulder; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 Limited. Bates (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Eagles.; Treylon Burks (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: foot; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 Limited. Burks (foot), who is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Eagles, is expected to play.; Daron Payne (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: foot; practice by report day: Sat, Oct 31 Limited. Payne suffered a season-ending Jones fracture during practice Friday.; Stefon Diggs (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: hand, hamstring; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Marcus Mariota (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Fabian Moreau (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Deatrich Wise (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: not injury related - resting player; practice by report day: Sat, Oct 31 Limited.; Nick Allegretti (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: back; practice by report day: Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Luke McCaffrey (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: hip; practice by report day: Sat, Oct 31 Limited.; Colson Yankoff (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Jayden Daniels (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: elbow; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Tanner McKee is the projected starting quarterback for PHI
5.33 Y/AThrough 2 games in 2026, Tanner McKee threw for 426 passing yards, completed 61.3% of his passes and averaged 5.33 yards per attempt. Last season over 4 games he threw for 274 yards, completed 55.8% and averaged 6.37 yards per attempt, 1-1 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
Jayden Daniels is the projected starting quarterback for WSH
6.54 Y/AThrough 4 games in 2026, Jayden Daniels threw for 759 passing yards, completed 64.7% of his passes and averaged 6.54 yards per attempt. Last season over 7 games he threw for 1262 yards, completed 60.6% and averaged 6.71 yards per attempt, 8-3 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.
TRENCHES
WSH: 100.5 rushing yards allowed per game to PHI's 131.4
30.9 YPGWashington allows 100.5 rushing yards a game over six games, while Philadelphia gives up 131.4 over seven. Washington's run defense has been the steadier unit so far. At home, that gives the Commanders a better shot at slowing the Eagles' ground game than the reverse, which shapes rushing props on both sides.
PASS RUSH
WSH: 1.83 sacks recorded per game to PHI's 1.14
0.69 SACKSPHI is at 1.14 sacks recorded per game over 7 games; WSH is at 1.83 over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 31.
PACE & SCRIPT
PHI @ WSH carries a 40.5 market total
40.5At 40.5, 5 points below the 45.5 median on a 13-game slate, the market expects a measured division game in Washington with fewer possessions and fewer explosive plays. There is nothing on the sheet about personnel, so this rests on the number alone. A fast start or a defensive score would push this past what the market priced, and that early script is the spot to watch for live betting.
WSH: 31:05 time of possession per game to PHI's 27:40
3:24 TOPWashington controls the clock more than Philadelphia this season, a flip from last season when Philly led 30:11 to 28:41. Washington's 6 games and its strong run game point the same way. Philly losing possession time fits its slip on the ground. If Washington keeps running, Philly gets fewer chances to answer.
WSH: 22 points per game to PHI's 18.1
3.9 PPGPHI is at 18.1 points per game over 7 games; WSH is at 22 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season PHI was at 22.3 over 17 games and WSH at 20.9 over 17 games.
PHI: 25 points allowed per game to WSH's 28.7
3.7 PPGPHI is at 25 points allowed per game over 7 games; WSH is at 28.7 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season PHI was at 19.1 over 17 games and WSH at 26.5 over 17 games.
TURNOVERS
WSH: 1.33 takeaways per game to PHI's 0.43
0.9 TOWashington forces 1.33 turnovers a game over 6 games, while Philadelphia gets just 0.43 in its 7. Takeaways are streaky and tend to even out, so both numbers will likely move toward the middle. For this game, Washington at home has the better chance to win the turnover battle, but that edge is less reliable than the yardage numbers.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYS
WSH: 5.13 yards per play to PHI's 4.53
0.6 Y/PWashington is more efficient per play than Philadelphia, but both teams are down from last season: PHI from 5.27, WSH from 5.53. Philly's 4.53 over 7 games is a steep drop for an offense that was solid last year. That kind of slide can rebound, so the gap may shrink. Washington still enters with the more productive offense.
RED ZONE
PHI: 55.2% red-zone scoring allowed to WSH's 81.8%
26.6 PPPHI is at 55.2% red-zone scoring allowed over 7 games; WSH is at 81.8% over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 31.
MISMATCH
WSH: 125.2 rush yards a game to PHI's 87.7
125.2 VS 87.7Washington runs for 125.2 a game over six games, Philadelphia only 87.7 over seven. The Eagles were at 116.9 last season, so their drop is the number most likely to move back up. Washington sits near last season's 134.7. If Philadelphia's ground game stays stuck on the road, the offense leans harder on the pass and becomes easier to predict.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
PHI lead the series with WSH since 2025
2-1 SERIESThese games have been tight lately. Philadelphia won 24-22 at home on Sep 13, a week after losing 24-17 to Washington on Jan 4 in the same building. The Eagles' clean win came on the road, 29-18 at Washington in December, and that is where this one is played. Two of the three meetings stayed within one score, which makes the spread more interesting than the winner.
REPLACEMENT
Daron Payne (DT) is out for WSH
OUTWSH lists Daron Payne as out on the injury report. Reported Nov 1.
Javon Kinlaw (DT) is out for WSH
OUTWSH lists Javon Kinlaw as out on the injury report. Reported Nov 1.
Jihaad Campbell (LB) is out for PHI
OUTPHI lists Jihaad Campbell as out on the injury report. Reported Nov 1.
Jonathan Jones (CB) is out for PHI
OUTJones is out for Philadelphia at Washington, reported Nov 1, so he will not play. The sheet lists no injury or timeline, which means the Eagles go into this game a corner short and someone further down the depth chart takes his snaps.
Tanoa Togiai (G) is out for WSH
OUTWSH lists Tanoa Togiai as out on the injury report. Reported Nov 1.
Jake Majors (C) is out for PHI
OUTPhiladelphia has ruled out its center Majors for the trip to Washington, reported Nov 1. He won't play, and the sheet gives no injury or timeline, so the Eagles will have a different player snapping the ball in this game.
Dontayvion Wicks (WR) is out for PHI
OUTWicks is out for Philadelphia at Washington, reported Nov 1, so he won't play. No injury or timeline is listed. He joins Smith and Covey on the out list, which leaves the Eagles leaning on fewer receivers than usual in this game.
Athan Kaliakmanis (QB) is out for WSH
OUTKaliakmanis is inactive for Washington against the Eagles by coach's decision, with no injury involved. He is the emergency third quarterback, so he only plays if both quarterbacks ahead of him go down. For betting this changes nothing about the Commanders' offense unless the game turns chaotic at the position.
Isaac Yiadom (CB) is out for WSH
OUTWSH lists Isaac Yiadom as out on the injury report. Reported Nov 1.
Britain Covey (WR) is out for PHI
OUTCovey is out for Philadelphia at Washington, reported Nov 1, so he will not play. The sheet gives no injury detail. With Smith and Wicks also sitting, the Eagles' receiver room is short this week.
DeVonta Smith (WR) is out for PHI
OUTPhiladelphia has ruled Smith out at Washington, reported Nov 1, so he will not play. The sheet gives no injury detail or return timeline. With Wicks and Covey also out, the Eagles are thin at receiver this week, and the targets Smith would see have to go to whoever is left.
Fabian Moreau (CB) is out for WSH
OUTWSH lists Fabian Moreau as out on the injury report. Reported Nov 1.
Jalen Hurts (QB) is on injured reserve for PHI
IRHurts (calf) is expected to be held out of football activities for multiple months and miss the rest of the season after new imaging over the weekend revealed several blood clots in his lungs, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports. Reported Oct 19.
Jakorian Bennett (CB) is ir-r for PHI
IR-RBennett (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Commanders. Reported Nov 1.
Dameon Pierce (RB) is on injured reserve for PHI
IRThe Eagles placed Pierce (undisclosed) on injured reserve Wednesday Reported Oct 28.
Terry McLaurin (WR) is on injured reserve for WSH
IRMcLaurin (knee) underwent surgery Friday to repair the torn patellar tendon in his left knee, Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic reports. Reported Oct 30.
Jer'Zhan Newton (DT) is ir-r for WSH
IR-RNewton (pectoral) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Eagles. Reported Nov 1.
Laremy Tunsil (OT) is on injured reserve for WSH
IRTunsil (triceps) could potentially return late in the season, Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic reports. Reported Oct 29.
Jaylin Lane (WR) is on injured reserve for WSH
IRLane underwent surgery Oct. 9 to repair his fractured and dislocated ankle, and he is expected to be cleared for activities before OTAs, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports. Reported Oct 22.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB) is on injured reserve for WSH
IRThe Commanders placed Croskey-Merritt (groin) on injured reserve Monday. Reported Oct 19.
Javontae Jean-Baptiste (LB) is on injured reserve for WSH
IRThe Commanders placed Jean-Baptiste (pectoral) on injured reserve Monday. Reported Oct 19.
PRACTICE REPORT
Jonathan Jones
OutHamstring · Did not practice · Out
DeVonta Smith
OutHamstring · Did not practice · Out
Dontayvion Wicks
OutAnkle · Did not practice · Out
Javon Kinlaw
OutKnee · Did not practice · Out
Jihaad Campbell
OutHamstring, Quadricep · Did not practice · Out
Britain Covey
OutKnee · Did not practice · Out
Daron Payne
OutFoot · Limited practice · Out
John Bates
QuestionableShoulder · Limited practice · Questionable
Treylon Burks
QuestionableFoot · Limited practice · Questionable
Jer'Zhan Newton
QuestionablePectoral · Limited practice · Questionable
Jakorian Bennett
QuestionableKnee · Full practice · Questionable
Moro Ojomo
LPLimited practice
Deatrich Wise Jr.
LPLimited practice
Luke McCaffrey
LPLimited practice
Charles Omenihu
LPLimited practice
Saquon Barkley
LPLimited practice
Jalen Carter
LPAbdomen · Limited practice
Jalyx Hunt
LPLimited practice
Jayden Daniels
FPFull practice
Marcus Epps
FPFull practice
Landon Dickerson
FPFull practice
Arnold Ebiketie
FPFull practice
Smael Mondon Jr.
FPFull practice
Colson Yankoff
FPFull practice
Jonathan Greenard
FPFull practice
Michael Carter II
FPFull practice
Nick Allegretti
FPFull practice
Stefon Diggs
FPFull practice
Fabian Moreau
FPCoach's Decision · Full practice
Dallas Goedert
FPFull practice
Nolan Smith Jr.
FPFull practice
Marcus Mariota
FPFull practice
Zack Baun
FPFull practice
Tyler Steen
FPFull practice
Drew Kendall
FPFull practice
Quan Martin
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
WSH has 7 more days of rest
6d vs 13dPHI comes in on 6 days since its last game; WSH on 13 days of rest, a bye behind it. That is a 7-day spacing gap between the sides.
PHI: 37.9% third-down conversion rate to WSH's 30.9%
7 PPPHI is at 37.9% third-down conversion rate over 7 games; WSH is at 30.9% over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season PHI was at 37.1% over 17 games and WSH at 37.6% over 17 games.
PHI (2-5) at WSH (1-4-1), a division game
+8 PT GAPTwo struggling division teams meet here. Philadelphia is 2-5, -48, and has lost five straight, while Washington is 1-4-1 and -40. The Eagles are 1-2 on the road, and the Commanders are 1-1-1 at home. Neither team has given much reason for trust, and with margins this close, the five-game losing streak is the clearest difference between them.
STREAK
PHI has lost 5 straight
L5Philadelphia won 2 of its first 2 decisions and then lost 5 straight to sit at 2-5. Five losses in a row says the problem is current, more than an early-season slip. Going to Washington in a division game gives them a familiar opponent, and division games tend to stay closer than records suggest. Look at whether the line has overreacted to the streak, because a 2-5 team with this slide often gets priced at its worst.
TEAM RECORD
NFC EAST game: PHI 1-1, WSH 0-2-1 in the division
DIVISIONThese two share the NFC EAST. PHI is 1-1 against it, WSH is 0-2-1. Current-2026 standings through 2026-10-31.
AFTER GARY
WSH -5.5 → -5.5
NOW +2.57PPGary's number was -5.5; the same book now shows -5.5.
About this analysis
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- Daily picks first stored October 29, 2026 at 4:20 PM ET.
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Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKDALLAS GOEDERTRECEIVING YARDS OVER 45.5
Philadelphia goes into Washington without DeVonta Smith, Dontayvion Wicks or Britain Covey. That leaves Darius Cooper, a Hollywood Brown who just came off a long stretch of inactives, and Makai Lemon. The one proven pass catcher Tanner McKee has left is Dallas Goedert, and McKee has already leaned on him. Goedert drew eight targets against Carolina and seven against Dallas, and turned them into 61 and 48 yards. Smith was on the field for the Carolina game, so that volume came with a full receiver room. Now the room is thin, and his share should go up.
Washington has been soft against tight ends all year. Giants tight ends put 129 yards on them, Seattle's got 82, San Francisco's got 69, and Goedert himself went for 77 and two scores in the opener. Washington is also without Daron Payne, Javon Kinlaw and Jer'Zhan Newton, which strips out its interior push. That gives McKee time to let the middle of the field open up, and that is where Goedert lives.
As a five and a half point road dog, Philadelphia should be throwing into the second half. Steady volume to the most trusted target, against a defense that leaks yards to his position, gets him past the mid forties.
- GARY'S PICKTANNER MCKEEPASSING YARDS OVER 202.5
McKee has made two starts and cleared this number both times, with 215 against Carolina and 211 against Dallas. Neither game set up well for him. Carolina hit him often with a patched center group in front of him, and the receivers dropped balls in both games. Landon Dickerson and Drew Kendall are back up front now. Washington, meanwhile, lost Payne to a season ending foot fracture and has Kinlaw and Newton out as well. The interior pressure that bothered McKee the last two weeks should be much lighter on Sunday night.
The matchup favors volume too. Washington's secondary gave up 326 to Jameis Winston, 379 to Sam Darnold, 279 to Dak Prescott and 264 to Brock Purdy on only 29 attempts. Philadelphia's ground game has done little and its backfield is down to a banged up Saquon Barkley and Elijah Mitchell. As an underdog of nearly a touchdown, it should be passing for most of the night. McKee threw 45 times against Carolina and 35 against Dallas.
The receiver room is thin, but the yards will come from Goedert and Lemon underneath, and from the volume this game script demands. A quarterback who has gone over 210 in both starts gets a cleaner pocket and a softer secondary here. I'm taking the over.
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