Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders

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• GARY'S PICK

  CHIG OKONKWORECEIVING YARDS UNDER 29.5

  NFLWashington Commanders· -111

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 5

  GARY'S TAKE

  I'm taking Chig Okonkwo under 29.5 receiving yards at -111. He has played one game this season, and he is coming back on a hamstring. That one game was Week 1 at Philadelphia: 39 of 70 snaps, 3 targets, 2 catches, 16 yards. He then missed two games. He was limited in Thursday's practice and carried a questionable tag into the weekend. The book opened him at 26.5 in Week 1, and he fell well short. Now he has two missed weeks and a soft-tissue injury, and the number has gone up three yards. I'd lean the other way. The bigger issue is the tight end room. Washington got along without him. In the Seattle win, John Bates, Ben Sinnott and Colson Yankoff each played roughly half the offensive snaps. The whole group has 8 catches for 60 yards through three games. A first game back from a hamstring usually means a rotation and a managed snap count, inside an offense that already spreads the ball around. Against Seattle, Marcus Mariota threw touchdowns to Rachaad White and Treylon Burks, and Jaylin Lane had a 21-yard screen. Stefon Diggs and Antonio Williams have been the scoring targets. Washington also passes less than expected in neutral spots. Thirty yards is a lot to ask of a part-time tight end in a run-leaning offense. The strongest case for the over is real. Terry McLaurin is expected to miss, which frees up targets. Indianapolis has allowed 20 catches on 27 targets and 204 yards to tight ends in three games. The Colts play a lot of man coverage, and Akeem Davis-Gaither is questionable, which could leave Okonkwo against a linebacker. He also averaged 34.2 yards a game across ten games last year. One catch in space beats this line. I still think the snap count limits him first, and a split room limits him second. The sample this season is a single game, so I'm keeping this at standard size.

  ×

  Chig Okonkwo
  Receiving Yards under 29.5

  -111 · CASHED · ACTUAL 5

  Washington Commanders

  Read Gary’s Take

  I'm taking Chig Okonkwo under 29.5 receiving yards at -111. He has played one game this season, and he is coming back on a hamstring.

  That one game was Week 1 at Philadelphia: 39 of 70 snaps, 3 targets, 2 catches, 16 yards. He then missed two games. He was limited in Thursday's practice and carried a questionable tag into the weekend. The book opened him at 26.5 in Week 1, and he fell well short. Now he has two missed weeks and a soft-tissue injury, and the number has gone up three yards. I'd lean the other way.

  The bigger issue is the tight end room. Washington got along without him. In the Seattle win, John Bates, Ben Sinnott and Colson Yankoff each played roughly half the offensive snaps. The whole group has 8 catches for 60 yards through three games. A first game back from a hamstring usually means a rotation and a managed snap count, inside an offense that already spreads the ball around. Against Seattle, Marcus Mariota threw touchdowns to Rachaad White and Treylon Burks, and Jaylin Lane had a 21-yard screen. Stefon Diggs and Antonio Williams have been the scoring targets. Washington also passes less than expected in neutral spots. Thirty yards is a lot to ask of a part-time tight end in a run-leaning offense.

  The strongest case for the over is real. Terry McLaurin is expected to miss, which frees up targets. Indianapolis has allowed 20 catches on 27 targets and 204 yards to tight ends in three games. The Colts play a lot of man coverage, and Akeem Davis-Gaither is questionable, which could leave Okonkwo against a linebacker. He also averaged 34.2 yards a game across ten games last year. One catch in space beats this line.

  I still think the snap count limits him first, and a split room limits him second. The sample this season is a single game, so I'm keeping this at standard size.

• GARY'S PICK

  MARCUS MARIOTARUSHING ATTEMPTS UNDER 5.5

  NFLWashington Commanders· -135

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  I'm on Marcus Mariota under 5.5 rushing attempts at -135. At that number he can carry five times and the ticket still cashes. Here is what he has done this season. In his only full game, the 33-31 win over Seattle, he ran five times for 11 yards. The last of those was the third-and-7 keeper that ended the game. At Dallas he came in after Jayden Daniels got hurt, played 32 snaps and ran once. That's two games, one of them a half. In his 12th season, he stood in the pocket against Seattle, threw 31 passes and got the ball out quickly. His running now comes in spots. The matchup supports that. Indianapolis has faced Baltimore, Kansas City and Houston, and the quarterbacks in those three games combined for 67 rushing yards. Washington's line has allowed 3 sacks on 116 dropbacks. Clean pockets mean fewer broken plays that turn into scrambles. The designed carries go to Jacory Croskey-Merritt, with Austin Ekeler re-signed and Craig Reynolds elevated now that Rachaad White is out. Against a Colts run defense giving up 141.3 yards a game, I expect Washington to give the ball to its backs, not its 33-year-old quarterback. The case against has three parts. First, his fill-in run last season included games with 8 and 10 carries, and his 2025 average across ten appearances was right at 5.0. Second, the Colts play man coverage at one of the league's highest rates, and their pressure comes up the middle from DeForest Buckner and Adetomiwa Adebawore. Washington's interior is patched, with Sam Cosmi out and Nick Allegretti and Lucas Patrick both questionable, and that pressure can push him out of the pocket and into open lanes. Third, kneel-downs count as rushing attempts. If Washington closes out a lead, which is how my spread ticket wins outright, two or three kneels can turn a four-carry day into six. The -135 price is steep. I'm still taking a fifth carry as my cushion against a quarterback who has run once and five times this season.

  ×

  Marcus Mariota
  Rushing Attempts under 5.5

  -135 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  Washington Commanders

  Read Gary’s Take

  I'm on Marcus Mariota under 5.5 rushing attempts at -135. At that number he can carry five times and the ticket still cashes.

  Here is what he has done this season. In his only full game, the 33-31 win over Seattle, he ran five times for 11 yards. The last of those was the third-and-7 keeper that ended the game. At Dallas he came in after Jayden Daniels got hurt, played 32 snaps and ran once. That's two games, one of them a half. In his 12th season, he stood in the pocket against Seattle, threw 31 passes and got the ball out quickly. His running now comes in spots.

  The matchup supports that. Indianapolis has faced Baltimore, Kansas City and Houston, and the quarterbacks in those three games combined for 67 rushing yards. Washington's line has allowed 3 sacks on 116 dropbacks. Clean pockets mean fewer broken plays that turn into scrambles. The designed carries go to Jacory Croskey-Merritt, with Austin Ekeler re-signed and Craig Reynolds elevated now that Rachaad White is out. Against a Colts run defense giving up 141.3 yards a game, I expect Washington to give the ball to its backs, not its 33-year-old quarterback.

  The case against has three parts. First, his fill-in run last season included games with 8 and 10 carries, and his 2025 average across ten appearances was right at 5.0. Second, the Colts play man coverage at one of the league's highest rates, and their pressure comes up the middle from DeForest Buckner and Adetomiwa Adebawore. Washington's interior is patched, with Sam Cosmi out and Nick Allegretti and Lucas Patrick both questionable, and that pressure can push him out of the pocket and into open lanes. Third, kneel-downs count as rushing attempts. If Washington closes out a lead, which is how my spread ticket wins outright, two or three kneels can turn a four-carry day into six.

  The -135 price is steep. I'm still taking a fifth carry as my cushion against a quarterback who has run once and five times this season.

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