Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
O/U 46.5 · SPREAD Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 · Lincoln Financial Field
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 -115
- Published odds
- -115
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 22-24
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 20 moves| Market | Opened Sep 9 10:49 AM | Close Sep 13 4:16 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 (-108) | Philadelphia Eagles -6 (-102) | +½ |
| TOTAL | 44.5 (-110) | 44 (-108) | −½ |
| MONEYLINE | Philadelphia Eagles -235 | Philadelphia Eagles -275 | −40 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 9 10:49 AM | Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 (-108) | 44.5 (-110) | Philadelphia Eagles -235 · Washington Commanders +195 |
| Sep 9 12:22 PM | Philadelphia Eagles -5 (-108) | 44.5 (-110) | Philadelphia Eagles -235 · Washington Commanders +190 |
| Sep 9 1:43 PM | Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 (-108) | 44.5 (-110) | Philadelphia Eagles -235 · Washington Commanders +190 |
| Sep 10 8:00 AM | Philadelphia Eagles -5 (-110) | 44.5 (-105) | Philadelphia Eagles -235 · Washington Commanders +190 |
| Sep 10 12:02 PM | Philadelphia Eagles -5 (-110) | 44.5 (-110) | Philadelphia Eagles -235 · Washington Commanders +190 |
| Sep 10 12:32 PM | Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 (-108) | 44.5 (-110) | Philadelphia Eagles -235 · Washington Commanders +195 |
| Sep 10 1:03 PM | Philadelphia Eagles -5 (-110) | 44.5 (-105) | Philadelphia Eagles -235 · Washington Commanders +190 |
| Sep 10 1:33 PM | Philadelphia Eagles -5 (-110) | 44.5 (-110) | Philadelphia Eagles -235 · Washington Commanders +195 |
| Sep 10 2:03 PM | Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 (-108) | 44.5 (-108) | Philadelphia Eagles -235 · Washington Commanders +195 |
| Sep 10 3:03 PM | Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 (-110) | 44.5 (-108) | Philadelphia Eagles -235 · Washington Commanders +195 |
| Sep 10 7:58 PM | Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 (-110) | 44.5 (-105) | Philadelphia Eagles -235 · Washington Commanders +200 |
| Sep 13 10:14 AM | Philadelphia Eagles -6 (-110) | 44 (-110) | Philadelphia Eagles -250 · Washington Commanders +210 |
| Sep 13 10:36 AM | Philadelphia Eagles -6 (-110) | 44 (-110) | Philadelphia Eagles -275 · Washington Commanders +220 |
| Sep 13 1:35 PM | Philadelphia Eagles -6 (-105) | 44 (-110) | Philadelphia Eagles -275 · Washington Commanders +220 |
| Sep 13 2:36 PM | Philadelphia Eagles -6 (-102) | 44 (-110) | Philadelphia Eagles -275 · Washington Commanders +220 |
| Sep 13 3:16 PM | Philadelphia Eagles -6 (-102) | 44 (-110) | Philadelphia Eagles -250 · Washington Commanders +210 |
| Sep 13 3:26 PM | Philadelphia Eagles -6 (-105) | 44 (-110) | Philadelphia Eagles -275 · Washington Commanders +210 |
| Sep 13 3:36 PM | Philadelphia Eagles -6 (-102) | 44 (-110) | Philadelphia Eagles -275 · Washington Commanders +225 |
| Sep 13 3:46 PM | Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 (-112) | 44 (-108) | Philadelphia Eagles -275 · Washington Commanders +225 |
| Sep 13 4:06 PM | Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 (-120) | 44 (-108) | Philadelphia Eagles -275 · Washington Commanders +220 |
| CLOSESep 13 4:16 PM | Philadelphia Eagles -6 (-102) | 44 (-108) | Philadelphia Eagles -275 · Washington Commanders +220 |
The read
Opening Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field, and an NFC East matchup immediately tests two new offensive play-callers. Philadelphia begins at home; Washington arrives with a reorganized offensive line and a rebuilt defense.
I’m laying the points because Philadelphia’s offensive path fits the matchup. Washington allowed 4.8 yards per rush last season, and Saquon Barkley returns behind an offensive line bringing back all five projected starters. Dallas Goedert adds another way to finish possessions: he caught 11 touchdowns last season, while Washington surrendered 12 receiving touchdowns to tight ends. Washington’s defensive changes deserve consideration, but I expect Philadelphia’s established combination of blocking, rushing and tight-end production to put that new structure under sustained pressure.
Philadelphia’s defense supplies the other half of the cover case. Last season, the Eagles allowed 19.1 points per game against Washington’s 26.5. The stronger reason to carry that advantage forward is the matchup between Philadelphia’s established defensive system and Washington’s rearranged protection. My expectation is that Philadelphia can disrupt enough possessions to give its offense repeated opportunities to build separation. That matters when laying 5.5: controlling the game has to translate into additional scoring opportunities.
Washington’s strongest response is its running game. It averaged 4.7 yards per carry last season against Philadelphia’s 4.2, and Jayden Daniels returns after appearing in only seven games. Washington’s full-season offensive struggles therefore deserve less weight than they would with the same quarterback available throughout. Its better punt-return coverage also offers a way to help keep the game close. If Washington sustains drives on the ground and wins field position, the points become dangerous.
The biggest threat to this ticket is Washington getting pressure on Jalen Hurts. His completion rate last season fell below half under pressure, compared with 70.2% from a clean pocket. Philadelphia is also installing a new offense and blocking system, so returning starters do not eliminate execution risk. I nevertheless expect Barkley and Goedert to give that offense enough answers to sustain possessions, while Philadelphia’s defense puts more strain on Washington’s protection. That combination is why I expect the Eagles to create enough separation to cover.
Injuries noted
Washington Commanders: Deatrich Wise Jr. (PUP-R) — Wise (undisclosed) was placed on the reserve/PUP list on Sunday.; Trey Amos (IR-R) — Amos (ankle) was placed on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return.; Jeremy McNichols (IR-R) — The Commanders placed McNichols (quadriceps) on injured reserve with a designation to return Sunday, Zach Selby of the team's official site reports.; Laremy Tunsil (IR) — The Commanders placed Tunsil (triceps) on injured reserve Monday.; Dorance Armstrong (Reserve-Sus) — Suspension; Jer'Zhan Newton (IR) — The Commanders placed Newton (pectoral) on injured reserve Monday.
Philadelphia Eagles: Jonathan Greenard (Out) — Greenard (pectoral) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Commanders.; Tucker Large (NFI-R) — Undisclosed; Jakorian Bennett (IR-R) — Bennett (knee) was placed on injured reserve with a designation to return by the Eagles on Sunday.; Grant Calcaterra (IR-R) — Calcaterra (back) was placed on injured reserve by the Eagles on Sunday with a designation to return.; Andre' Sam (IR) — Sam (foot) reverted to the Eagles' injured-reserve list Monday, Andrew DiCecco of InsideTheBirds.com reports.; Eli Stowers (IR) — The Eagles placed Stowers (quadriceps/hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday.; Johnny Wilson (IR) — Wilson (knee) reverted to Philadelphia's injured reserve Saturday, per the NFL's transaction log.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Jalen Hurts starts at quarterback for PHI
7.1 Y/AHurts's 2025 season line: 3224 passing yards, 64.8% completions, 7.1 yards per attempt, 25-6 TD-INT over 16 games.
Jayden Daniels starts at quarterback for WSH
6.71 Y/ADaniels's 2025 season line: 1262 passing yards, 60.6% completions, 6.71 yards per attempt, 8-3 TD-INT over 7 games.
TRENCHES
WSH gets +0.67 more yards a carry (2025 season)
0.67 Y/CWSH is at 4.81 yards per rush attempt over 17 games; PHI is at 4.14 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
WSH is +17.8 rush yards per game (2025 season)
17.8 YPGWSH is at 134.7 rushing yards per game over 17 games; PHI is at 116.9 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
PACE & SCRIPT
PHI's defense gives up 7.4 fewer points per game (2025 season)
7.4 PPGWSH is at 26.5 points allowed per game over 17 games; PHI is at 19.1 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
TURNOVERS
PHI commits 0.47 fewer turnovers per game (2025 season)
0.47 TOWSH is at 1.35 turnovers committed per game over 17 games; PHI is at 0.88 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
MISMATCH
PHI's defense against WSH's — PHI allows 19.1 a game, WSH 26.5 (2025 season)
19.1 VS 26.5Philadelphia allowed 19.1 points per game over 17 games in the 2025 regular season, compared with Washington’s 26.5 over 17. The defensive gap does not show how Philadelphia’s unit attacks Washington’s offense or how Washington might protect it.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
WSH and PHI are even since 2025
1-1 SERIESWSH and PHI are 1-1 across the last two seasons, and the road team won both meetings. PHI won 29-18 on Dec. 20, 2025, before WSH won 24-17 on Jan. 4, 2026.
REPLACEMENT
Cole Payton (QB) is inactive for PHI
INACTIVEPayton (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Commanders. Reported Sep 13.
Tanner McKee (QB) is inactive for PHI
INACTIVEMcKee (coach's decision) is inactive as the emergency third quarterback for Sunday's game against the Commanders. Reported Sep 13.
Athan Kaliakmanis (QB) is inactive for WSH
INACTIVEKaliakmanis (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Commanders' emergency third quarterback against the Eagles on Sunday. Reported Sep 13.
Frankie Luvu (LB) is questionable for WSH
QUESTIONABLELuvu (groin) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Eagles. Reported Sep 13.
PRACTICE REPORT
Jonathan Greenard
OutPectoral · Limited practice · Out
Eli Stowers
OutHamstring, Quadricep · Limited practice · Out
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
LPLimited practice
K'Lavon Chaisson
LPLimited practice
Odafe Oweh
LPLimited practice
Daron Payne
LPLimited practice
AFTER GARY
PHI -5.5 → -5.5
NOW +0.22PPFANDUEL · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 9, 2026 at 4:25 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, fanatics, caesars, betrivers, betmgm.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
4- GARY'S PICKSAQUON BARKLEYRUSHING ATTEMPTS OVER 17.5
Philadelphia has every reason to lean on Barkley early. Washington struggled badly against the run last season, and the Eagles’ healthy offensive line gives this offense a strong foundation. A competitive NFC East opener should keep Barkley involved throughout, with 18 carries well within his normal workload.
- GARY'S PICKCHIG OKONKWORECEPTIONS OVER 2.5
Washington is likely to need quick, controlled throws against Philadelphia’s interior pass rush. Okonkwo gives Jayden Daniels a useful middle-of-the-field outlet, and his role should benefit from Philadelphia focusing attention on Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs. Three catches is a modest target for a player with a consistent place in this passing game.
- THE LONG SHOT
SAQUON BARKLEYANYTIME TD OVER 0.5Barkley remains Philadelphia’s clearest goal-line weapon, and the matchup sets up for the Eagles to test Washington’s rebuilt front with physical runs. His workload and the offense’s preference for finishing drives through its foundation back make this a fair price for a touchdown.
- THE LONG SHOTJALEN HURTSANYTIME TD OVER 0.5
Hurts’ rushing threat is still central to how Philadelphia attacks near the goal line. Washington’s new defense is being asked to communicate through a lot of unfamiliar looks, and Hurts can score either on a designed keeper or when the pocket breaks down. Plus money makes this worth taking in a matchup where Philadelphia should create several red-zone chances.
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