Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers
O/U 47.5 · SPREAD San Francisco 49ers -18.5 · Levi's Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Washington Commanders +7.5 -120
- Published odds
- -120
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 17-23
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 46 moves| Market | Opened Oct 14 8:20 AM | Close Oct 19 8:07 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -7 (-112) | −½ |
| TOTAL | 50.5 (-112) | 51.5 (-110) | +1 |
| MONEYLINE | San Francisco 49ers -400 | San Francisco 49ers -375 | +25 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 14 8:20 AM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-112) | San Francisco 49ers -400 · Washington Commanders +310 |
| Oct 14 9:31 AM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -400 · Washington Commanders +310 |
| Oct 14 1:34 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-112) | San Francisco 49ers -400 · Washington Commanders +310 |
| Oct 15 12:31 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-108) | 51 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -400 · Washington Commanders +320 |
| Oct 15 1:02 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-108) | 51 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -400 · Washington Commanders +310 |
| Oct 15 5:03 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -400 · Washington Commanders +320 |
| Oct 15 5:15 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -400 · Washington Commanders +320 |
| Oct 15 6:10 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -425 · Washington Commanders +320 |
| Oct 15 6:21 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -400 · Washington Commanders +320 |
| Oct 15 6:42 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -425 · Washington Commanders +320 |
| Oct 15 9:51 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -400 · Washington Commanders +320 |
| Oct 16 4:02 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -425 · Washington Commanders +320 |
| Oct 16 6:02 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-108) | 52 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -400 · Washington Commanders +310 |
| Oct 17 1:03 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-108) | 52 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -400 · Washington Commanders +320 |
| Oct 17 3:03 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-108) | 52 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -425 · Washington Commanders +320 |
| Oct 17 4:03 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-108) | 52 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -400 · Washington Commanders +320 |
| Oct 17 6:33 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-105) | 52 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -425 · Washington Commanders +320 |
| Oct 18 5:00 AM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-108) | 52 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -425 · Washington Commanders +320 |
| Oct 18 7:11 AM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-108) | 52 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -400 · Washington Commanders +320 |
| Oct 18 7:41 AM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-108) | 52 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -425 · Washington Commanders +333 |
| Oct 18 8:11 AM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-105) | 52 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -450 · Washington Commanders +333 |
| Oct 18 9:00 AM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-105) | 52 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -425 · Washington Commanders +333 |
| Oct 18 12:21 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-105) | 52 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -425 · Washington Commanders +333 |
| Oct 18 7:32 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-105) | 52 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -425 · Washington Commanders +320 |
| Oct 19 12:23 AM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-105) | 52 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -450 · Washington Commanders +340 |
| Oct 19 12:53 AM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-108) | 52 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -450 · Washington Commanders +333 |
| Oct 19 5:00 AM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-105) | 52 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -450 · Washington Commanders +340 |
| Oct 19 7:31 AM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-105) | 52 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -425 · Washington Commanders +333 |
| Oct 19 8:31 AM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-105) | 52 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -450 · Washington Commanders +340 |
| Oct 19 9:00 AM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-105) | 52 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -425 · Washington Commanders +333 |
| Oct 19 2:01 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-105) | 52 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -425 · Washington Commanders +320 |
| Oct 19 3:01 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-102) | 52 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -425 · Washington Commanders +320 |
| Oct 19 4:15 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-105) | 52 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -400 · Washington Commanders +320 |
| Oct 19 5:01 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-105) | 52 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -425 · Washington Commanders +320 |
| Oct 19 5:55 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-102) | 52 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -425 · Washington Commanders +320 |
| Oct 19 6:16 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-105) | 52 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -400 · Washington Commanders +310 |
| Oct 19 6:26 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-102) | 52 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -400 · Washington Commanders +320 |
| Oct 19 6:36 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-102) | 52 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -375 · Washington Commanders +310 |
| Oct 19 6:46 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-105) | 51.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -400 · Washington Commanders +310 |
| Oct 19 6:56 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-102) | 51.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -375 · Washington Commanders +310 |
| Oct 19 7:06 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7 (-112) | 51.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -375 · Washington Commanders +310 |
| Oct 19 7:17 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7 (-112) | 51.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -375 · Washington Commanders +300 |
| Oct 19 7:27 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7 (-115) | 51.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -375 · Washington Commanders +300 |
| Oct 19 7:37 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7 (-115) | 51.5 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -375 · Washington Commanders +300 |
| Oct 19 7:45 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7 (-118) | 51.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -375 · Washington Commanders +300 |
| Oct 19 7:57 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7 (-115) | 51.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -375 · Washington Commanders +300 |
| CLOSEOct 19 8:07 PM | San Francisco 49ers -7 (-112) | 51.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -375 · Washington Commanders +300 |
The read
Monday night in Santa Clara, an unbeaten 49ers team riding Brock Purdy's MVP buzz hosts a Commanders club still answering for a 27-27 tie that ended with Jayden Daniels tackled inbounds instead of throwing it away. That gap in perception is exactly why I'm taking the points.
The market is buying San Francisco at its peak and selling Washington at its low. Look at the 49ers since Nick Bosa went down in Week 2. They beat Arizona 36-30, beat Denver 24-14 after a 3-3 half and won 32-29 in Seattle. Two of those three don't cover 7.5, and the defense gave up 30 and 29.
This week San Francisco is thin where it hurts. Deebo Samuel is out, and Mike Evans didn't practice all week and is a game-time decision. Christian Kirk is only "possibly" back. At linebacker, Dre Greenlaw is suspended, Garret Wallow is out and Nick Martin is on IR. That's a short-handed second level trying to chase Daniels' legs, and Raheem Morris flagged that running threat himself. Marques Sigle is out too, and Upton Stout and Mykel Williams are questionable.
Daniels has kept Washington close when he plays a full game, losing 22-24 at Philadelphia and tying the Giants 27-27. The hook gets us past the 7. The 49ers are 5/8 on field goals and 2/5 from 50-plus, with wind gusting to 15 tonight, so stretching a lead with field goals isn't a given.
The risks are real. Washington has been outscored after halftime in all five games, including blowing a 12-3 lead last week. The third-down split is ugly, with San Francisco at 27/52 and Washington at 22/69. The Commanders' defense has given up 30-plus in three of five games, and Charles Omenihu and Javontae Jean-Baptiste are out. Daniels has already dislocated his elbow this season, and with Marcus Mariota out, the backup is unproven. Washington's extra points have been shaky at 72.7%, too.
At -120 the price is steep, so keep it modest. If Evans sits, the case gets stronger.
Bottom line: Commanders +7.5. It's a lean, not a hammer.
Injuries noted
Washington Commanders: Trey Amos (IR-R) — Commanders general manager Adam Peters said that Amos (ankle) is likely to be activated from injured reserve and is expected to play Monday versus the 49ers, Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic reports.; Jeremy McNichols (IR-R) — McNichols (quadriceps) is questionable for Monday night's game against the 49ers.; Laremy Tunsil (IR) — The Commanders placed Tunsil (triceps) on injured reserve Monday.; Jer'Zhan Newton (IR) — The Commanders placed Newton (pectoral) on injured reserve Monday.; Jordan Magee (IR-R) — Magee (hamstring) was designated to return from injured reserve Thursday.; Tyler Owens (Questionable) — questionable; Jaylin Lane (IR) — The Commanders placed Lane (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Charles Omenihu (Out) — Omenihu (groin/ankle) has been ruled out for Monday's Week 6 matchup against San Francisco, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports.; Percy Butler (Questionable) — questionable; Leo Chenal (IR) — The Commanders placed Chenal (neck) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Marcus Mariota (Out) — Mariota (knee) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the 49ers, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports.; Stefon Diggs (Questionable) — Diggs (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Monday's game against San Francisco.; Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Out) — Croskey-Merritt (groin) has been ruled out for Monday night's game against the 49ers, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports.; Javontae Jean-Baptiste (Out) — Jean-Baptiste (pectoral) will be sidelined for Monday's clash against the 49ers, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports.; Lucas Patrick (Questionable) — questionable; Javon Kinlaw (Questionable) — questionable; Nick Cross (Questionable)
San Francisco 49ers: Isaac Guerendo (PUP-R) — Guerendo (pectoral) was placed on the reserve/PUP list Sunday, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reports.; Christian Kirk (IR-R) — Kirk (calf), who is listed as questionable for Monday's matchup with the Commanders, is expected to be reinstated from injured reserve ahead of the Week 6 game, Cam Inman of The San Jose Mercury News reports.; Ricky Pearsall (IR) — Pearsall announced Thursday in a post on his personal Instagram account that he underwent season-ending surgery to repair the PCL in his right knee, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reports.; Andrew Farmer II (IR) — San Francisco placed Farmer (back) on its injured-reserve list Thursday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Darrick Forrest (IR) — San Francisco placed Forrest (undisclosed) on its injured reserve list Thursday.; Mikail Kamara (IR); Sam Okuayinonu (IR) — Okuayinonu broke his foot in practice last week and is set to have surgery to repair the issue, Matt Barrows of The Athletic reports.; Brett Toth (IR) — The 49ers placed Toth (concussion) on injured reserve Sunday.; Nate Hobbs (IR) — ir; Nick Martin (IR) — Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Monday that Martin's (hamstring) status will be evaluated "in these next couple of days," Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com reports.; Austen Pleasants (IR-R) — The 49ers placed Pleasants (knee) on injured reserve with a designation to return Sunday.; Nick Zakelj (IR) — Zakelj (undisclosed) was placed on the 49ers' injured reserve Sunday.; Alfred Collins (IR) — San Francisco placed Collins (knee) on injured reserve Thursday.; De'Zhaun Stribling (IR) — The 49ers placed Stribling (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday.; Jake Tonges (IR) — Tonges (knee) requires surgery for an MCL tear and is done for the season, Cam Inman reports.; Demarcus Robinson (IR) — Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Thursday that Robinson (ankle) has an "outside chance" to return from injured reserve for the 49ers' Week 7 game versus the Falcons but is more likely to be activated following the team's Week 8 bye, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reports.; C.J. West (IR) — The 49ers placed West (undisclosed) on injured reserve Wednesday.; Nick Bosa (Out) — Bosa (knee/calf) has been ruled out for Monday's Week 6 matchup against the Commanders, Cam Inman of The San Jose Mercury News reports.; Marques Sigle (Out) — Sigle (ankle) won't play in Monday's Week 6 matchup against Washington, Cam Inman of The San Jose Mercury News reports.; Deebo Samuel Sr. (Out) — Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Thursday that the 49ers will "hold off" on placing Samuel (hamstring) on IR due to the team's bye in Week 8, Vic Tafur of the Athletic reports.; Dre Greenlaw (Reserve-Sus) — Greenlaw's appeal of a one-game suspension was denied by the NFL on Tuesday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; Garret Wallow (Out) — San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan said Monday that Wallow will miss "at least a couple of weeks" due to a hamstring strain, Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com reports.; Mike Evans (Questionable) — Evans (ribs/Achilles), who is listed as questionable for Monday's contest against the Commanders, is viewed as a game-time decision, Cam Inman of The San Jose Mercury News reports.; Gracen Halton (Questionable) — questionable; Siran Neal (Questionable) — questionable; Upton Stout (Questionable) — Stout (shoulder) is questionable for Monday night's game against the Commanders.; Mykel Williams (Questionable) — Williams (knee) is questionable for Monday night's game against the Commanders.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Jayden Daniels is the projected starting quarterback for WSH
6.04 Y/AThrough 3 games in 2026, Jayden Daniels threw for 459 passing yards, completed 60.5% of his passes and averaged 6.04 yards per attempt. Last season over 7 games he threw for 1262 yards, completed 60.6% and averaged 6.71 yards per attempt, 8-3 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 3-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.
Brock Purdy is the projected starting quarterback for SF
8.42 Y/AThrough 5 games in 2026, Brock Purdy threw for 1196 passing yards, completed 69% of his passes and averaged 8.42 yards per attempt. Last season over 9 games he threw for 2167 yards, completed 69.4% and averaged 7.63 yards per attempt, 20-10 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 13-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 5 games in.
PASS RUSH
SF: 0.6 sacks taken per game to WSH's 2
1.4 SACKSWSH is at 2 sacks taken per game over 5 games; SF is at 0.6 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 18. Last season WSH was at 2.31 over 17 games and SF at 1.8 over 17 games.
SF: 2.8 sack yards lost per game to WSH's 9.2
6.4 YDSWSH is at 9.2 sack yards lost per game over 5 games; SF is at 2.8 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 18. Last season WSH was at 12.5 over 17 games and SF at 10.7 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPT
SF: 18.6 points allowed per game to WSH's 29.8
11.2 PPGWSH is at 29.8 points allowed per game over 5 games; SF is at 18.6 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 18. Last season WSH was at 26.5 over 17 games and SF at 21.8 over 17 games.
SF: 30.8 points per game to WSH's 23
7.8 PPGWSH is at 23 points per game over 5 games; SF is at 30.8 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 18. Last season WSH was at 20.9 over 17 games and SF at 25.7 over 17 games.
WSH @ SF carries a 51.5 market total
51.5A 51.5 is 6 points above the slate median, a mild lean toward points. The sheet offers no reason for the gap. It is close enough to a normal game that one or two drives ending in field goals instead of touchdowns would decide which side of it the game lands on.
WSH: 64 offensive plays per game to SF's 56.8
7.2 PLAYSWSH is at 64 offensive plays per game over 5 games; SF is at 56.8 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 18. Last season WSH was at 58.2 over 17 games and SF at 63.6 over 17 games.
WSH: 31:14 time of possession per game to SF's 28:36
2:38 TOPWSH is at 31:14 time of possession per game over 5 games; SF is at 28:36 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 18. Last season WSH was at 28:41 over 17 games and SF at 30:54 over 17 games.
TURNOVERS
WSH: 0.4 turnovers committed per game to SF's 1
0.6 TOWSH is at 0.4 turnovers committed per game over 5 games; SF is at 1 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 18. Last season WSH was at 1.35 over 17 games and SF at 1.29 over 17 games.
WSH: 0.2 fumbles lost per game to SF's 0.6
0.4 FUMWSH is at 0.2 fumbles lost per game over 5 games; SF is at 0.6 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 18. Last season WSH was at 0.65 over 17 games and SF at 0.35 over 17 games.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYS
SF: 6.54 yards per play to WSH's 5.14
1.4 Y/PWSH is at 5.14 yards per play over 5 games; SF is at 6.54 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 18. Last season WSH was at 5.53 over 17 games and SF at 5.49 over 17 games. WSH had 7 plays of 20+ yards in its last game, led by 38-yard run for a touchdown (Jayden Daniels 38 Yd Rush (Drew Stevens Kick)); 33-yard run for a touchdown (Jacory Croskey-Merritt 33 Yd Rush (Drew Stevens PAT Failed)); 26-yard run for a touchdown (Jayden Daniels 26 Yd Rush (Jayden Daniels Pass to Terry McLaurin for Two-Point Conversion)). SF had 3 plays of 20+ yards in its last game, led by 28-yard pass (Brock Purdy Pass Complete for 28 Yds to Mike Evans); 23-yard pass (Brock Purdy Pass Complete for 23 Yds to Mike Evans); 23-yard pass (Brock Purdy Pass Complete for 23 Yds to Mike Evans).
RED ZONE
SF: 50% red-zone scoring allowed to WSH's 83.3%
33.3 PPSan Francisco allows a score on 50% of opponent red-zone trips over 5 games, and Washington allows 83.3%. Red-zone rates come from only a handful of trips per game, so five games is a thin sample and both numbers can swing quickly. Washington's rate looks bad enough that some of it is likely bad luck. For this game, it points to San Francisco's offense finishing drives more often than Washington's, with real room for the gap to shrink.
MISMATCH
SF: 51.9% on third down to WSH's 31.9%
51.9 VS 31.9The widest gap between these two is third down: WSH's offense converted 31.9% of its own third downs over 5 games; SF's offense converted 51.9% of its own third downs over 5 games this season. Last season WSH was at 37.6% over 17 games and SF at 49.8% over 17 games.
COVERAGE
SF: 199.6 passing yards allowed per game to WSH's 255
55.4 YPGSan Francisco allows 199.6 passing yards a game over 5 games, and Washington allows 255. Passing yards depend on game script, since trailing teams throw more, and the sheet doesn't show who either team faced. Five games is a short run. In this game, San Francisco's passing offense gets the more forgiving matchup.
SF: 4.7 yards per play allowed to WSH's 5.54
0.84 Y/PWSH is at 5.54 yards per play allowed over 5 games; SF is at 4.7 over 5 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 18.
REPLACEMENT
Garret Wallow (LB) is out for SF
OUTSF lists Garret Wallow as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 19.
Naquan Jones (DT) is out for SF
OUTSF lists Naquan Jones as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 19.
Tanoa Togiai (G) is out for WSH
OUTWSH lists Tanoa Togiai as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 19.
Enrique Cruz Jr. (OT) is out for SF
OUTSF lists Enrique Cruz Jr. as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 19.
Nick Bosa (DE) is out for SF
OUTSF lists Nick Bosa as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 19.
T.J. Maguranyanga (DE) is out for WSH
OUTWSH lists T.J. Maguranyanga as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 19.
Isaac Yiadom (CB) is out for WSH
OUTWSH lists Isaac Yiadom as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 19.
Fabian Moreau (CB) is out for WSH
OUTWSH lists Fabian Moreau as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 19.
Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR) is out for SF
OUTSF lists Deebo Samuel Sr. as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 19.
Mike Evans (WR) is out for SF
OUTEvans hurt his Achilles in Monday night's game against Washington and was ruled out for the rest of it. An Achilles injury is the kind that can mean a long absence, but nothing on the sheet confirms a timeline yet. For now, the OUT tag means San Francisco finished this game without him, and his status for future weeks waits on more news.
Kurtis Rourke (QB) is out for SF
OUTSan Francisco has ruled Kurtis Rourke out against Washington, so he will not suit up. The Oct 19 report gives no injury detail and names no backup, so the quarterback room's depth is the open question to settle before you look at any San Francisco passing numbers.
Marcus Mariota (QB) is out for WSH
OUTWashington has ruled Marcus Mariota out for the trip to San Francisco, so he will not play in this game. The report from Oct 19 lists no injury detail and names no replacement, so wait for the confirmed starter before you judge how much the Washington offense changes.
Terry McLaurin (WR) is out for WSH
OUTMcLaurin went down in the first quarter of Monday night's game at San Francisco with a left knee injury and did not return. The OUT tag here covers the rest of this game, so Washington played most of the night without its lead receiver. No timeline beyond that is on the sheet, so the next injury report is what tells you whether this carries into next week.
Charles Omenihu (DE) is out for WSH
OUTCharles Omenihu is out for Washington at San Francisco, which removes a defensive end from the rotation for this game. The Oct 19 report gives no injury detail. With two Washington corners also ruled out, consider the whole defense when you look at San Francisco's offense.
Marques Sigle (S) is out for SF
OUTSF lists Marques Sigle as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 19.
Brett Toth (C) is questionable for SF
QUESTIONABLEThe 49ers released Toth (concussion) from their injured reserve list with an injury settlement Monday, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area reports. Reported Oct 20.
Christian Kirk (WR) is ir-r for SF
IR-RThe 49ers downgraded Kirk (calf) to out for Monday's game against the Commanders, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area reports. Reported Oct 19.
Demarcus Robinson (WR) is on injured reserve for SF
IRHead coach Kyle Shanahan said Thursday that Robinson (ankle) has an "outside chance" to return from injured reserve for the 49ers' Week 7 game versus the Falcons but is more likely to be activated following the team's Week 8 bye, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reports. Reported Oct 15.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB) is on injured reserve for WSH
IRThe Commanders placed Croskey-Merritt (groin) on injured reserve Monday. Reported Oct 19.
Luke Gifford (LB) is questionable for SF
QUESTIONABLESF lists Luke Gifford as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 20.
Dre Greenlaw (LB) is reserve-sus for SF
RESERVE-SUSGreenlaw's appeal of a one-game suspension was denied by the NFL on Tuesday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. Reported Oct 14.
Jaylin Lane (WR) is on injured reserve for WSH
IRThe Commanders placed Lane (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Oct 6.
Javontae Jean-Baptiste (LB) is on injured reserve for WSH
IRThe Commanders placed Jean-Baptiste (pectoral) on injured reserve Monday. Reported Oct 19.
Nick Martin (LB) is on injured reserve for SF
IRHead coach Kyle Shanahan said Monday that Martin's (hamstring) status will be evaluated "in these next couple of days," Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com reports. Reported Oct 13.
PRACTICE REPORT
Mike Evans
OutRibs, Achilles · Did not practice · Out
Deebo Samuel Sr.
OutHamstring · Did not practice · Out
Marques Sigle
OutAnkle · Did not practice · Out
Marcus Mariota
OutKnee · Did not practice · Out
Terry McLaurin
OutLimited practice · Out
Charles Omenihu
OutGroin, Ankle · Did not practice · Out
Javontae Jean-Baptiste
OutPectoral · Did not practice · Out
Garret Wallow
OutHamstring · Did not practice · Out
Nick Bosa
OutKnee, Calf · Did not practice · Out
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
OutGroin · Did not practice · Out
Upton Stout
QuestionableShoulder · Limited practice · Questionable
Tyler Owens
QuestionableHamstring · Limited practice · Questionable
Mykel Williams
QuestionableKnee · Limited practice · Questionable
Nick Cross
QuestionableIllness · Full practice · Questionable
Stefon Diggs
QuestionableHamstring · Limited practice · Questionable
Siran Neal
QuestionableNeck · Limited practice · Questionable
Percy Butler
QuestionableHamstring · Limited practice · Questionable
Trey Amos
QuestionableAnkle · Full practice · Questionable
Lucas Patrick
QuestionableIllness · Full practice · Questionable
Jeremy McNichols
QuestionableQuadricep · Full practice · Questionable
Jordan Magee
QuestionableHamstring · Limited practice · Questionable
Javon Kinlaw
QuestionableAnkle, Knee · Limited practice · Questionable
Gracen Halton
QuestionableQuadricep · Limited practice · Questionable
Christian Kirk
QuestionableCalf · Limited practice · Questionable
Kaelon Black
DNPDid not practice
Treylon Burks
LPLimited practice
Jeremy Reaves
LPLimited practice
Austin Ekeler
LPLimited practice
Rachaad White
LPLimited practice
Fabian Moreau
LPCoach's Decision · Limited practice
Romello Height
LPLimited practice
Jacob Cowing
FPFull practice
James Thompson Jr.
FPFull practice
Colton McKivitz
FPFull practice
Christian McCaffrey
FPFull practice
Quan Martin
FPFull practice
Trent Williams
FPFull practice
Carver Willis
FPFull practice
Kyle Juszczyk
FPFull practice
Jayden Daniels
FPFull practice
K'Lavon Chaisson
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
WSH (1-3-1) at SF (5-0)
+95 PT GAPWSH is 1-3-1, -34 points on the year this season. SF is 5-0, +61 points on the year, has won 5 straight this season. WSH is 0-2 on the road; SF is 3-0 at home.
WSH: 1.4 fourth-down attempts per game to SF's 0.4
1 ATT/GWSH is at 1.4 fourth-down attempts per game over 5 games; SF is at 0.4 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 18. Last season WSH was at 1.53 over 17 games and SF at 1.29 over 17 games.
STREAK
SF has won 5 straight
W5SF is 5-0 and has not dropped a game yet. With no opponent detail on the sheet, there is no telling how much of that came against weak teams. Five wins in five games is a real start, but streaks eventually end and the number gets priced in quickly. Against WSH at home, the betting angle is whether the line already reflects the streak, since a perfect record tends to push spreads past where they would otherwise sit.
AFTER GARY
WSH +7.5 → +7.5
GARY +0.41PPGary's number was 7.5; the same book now shows 7.5.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 15, 2026 at 5:20 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKJAYDEN DANIELSRUSHING ATTEMPTS OVER 7.5
Jayden Daniels over 7.5 rushing attempts at +108. I'll take plus money on a quarterback who is about to carry more of his offense on his legs than usual.
Bill Croskey-Merritt is out with a re-injured groin, and he had been taking more than half the running back carries. Behind him are Rachaad White and Austin Ekeler, who both practiced in non-contact jerseys this week, and Jeremy McNichols, who hasn't played a snap this season. David Blough said Thursday that the staff will keep leaning into the quarterback run game. Daniels showed what that looks like last week against the Giants: 9 carries, 103 yards and touchdown runs of 38 and 26. In Dallas he played only about half the snaps before the elbow injury and still got to 7 carries. Last season he sat between 8 and 11 carries in most of his starts.
The matchup helps. San Francisco's second level is short tonight. Dre Greenlaw is suspended, Garret Wallow is out with a hamstring, and rookie Jaden Dugger is sliding over to WILL with Luke Gifford filling the other spot. Raheem Morris spent part of his press conference explaining how hard Daniels is to keep in the pocket and how hard he is to tackle once he gets out. Scrambles count toward this number, and a pressure-heavy 49ers front will flush him some.
The case against is real. Daniels is playing in a brace after dislocating that elbow for the second time, and with Marcus Mariota out the only backup is Athan Kaliakmanis, so the staff has every reason to trim designed runs. Morris is building his plan around containment, and in the opener at Philadelphia Daniels ran only 5 times. If the 49ers jump out by two scores, the late snaps turn into dropbacks. The line also moved up a full carry from last week.
The backfield shortage and Blough's own words push the volume toward Daniels. At plus money I'm on the over, with a modest stake.
- GARY'S PICKBROCK PURDYRUSHING ATTEMPTS OVER 4.5
Brock Purdy over 4.5 rushing attempts at +107. I see two ways he gets there tonight: scrambles against a blitz-heavy defense, and kneel-downs at the end of a home game.
Purdy has been more willing to move this season. His carries through five games run 5, 10, 2, 3 and 5. The 3 came against Miami, when Mac Jones finished the blowout, and the 2 came against Arizona, when the offense ran only 49 plays. Klay Kubiak called Washington's defense a huge schematic challenge because of its blitzes on any down, and Sonny Styles, K'Lavon Chaisson and Odafe Oweh all get sent regularly. When a linebacker vacates the middle with man coverage behind him, a quarterback who escapes has open grass. Purdy's receiver room also makes holding the ball more likely. Deebo Samuel is out, Mike Evans is a game-time decision with ribs and an Achilles issue, Christian Kirk is just coming off injured reserve and Brandin Cooks has been here only a few weeks. Kubiak specifically credited Purdy for making plays with his legs in the fourth quarter at Seattle.
Then there is the clock. San Francisco is at home, and Washington has allowed 95 second-half points, the most in the league. If the 49ers have the ball with a lead at the end, kneel-downs count as carries.
The strongest evidence against: last season Purdy usually landed between 2 and 7 carries, and 2 came up often. Shanahan may lean on Christian McCaffrey and Kaelon Black with this receiver group, which cuts dropbacks and scramble chances. My side in this game is Washington staying within a score, and a close finish can leave the Commanders with the last possession. In a true blowout, Mac Jones could take the kneels, the way he did against Miami.
The blitz looks, the thin receiver group and the late kneels all point the same way. Small play on the over at plus money.
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