New York Jets picks

The Raiders have dropped four straight. The Jets just lost at home to a Dolphins team that's 1-5. The market has the Jets as a short home favorite, but the injury report says the Jets' defense isn't the same unit that played last week. The Jets' pass rush got gutted. David Bailey is doubtful after missing practice all three days. Bailey played 94% and 97% of snaps the last two weeks and owns 5.5 of the team's 19 sacks, including 3 of the 8 in the Browns win, their best defensive day of the year. Joseph Ossai is out. T'Vondre Sweat and linebacker Kiko Mauigoa both went to IR. Next up on the edge is Nate Lynn, who was on the practice squad through Week 4 and has played 5% and 12% of snaps the last two games. That thinned-out front runs into the one thing Las Vegas does well. The Raiders can't run: Ashton Jeanty has 64 yards on 28 carries over the last three games. But Kirk Cousins has thrown for 295, 313 and 365 yards in three of the last four starts, and the Raiders have scored 21 or more in six of seven. The forecast is 61 degrees and clear with a 5 mph wind. Give Cousins a clean pocket and Brock Bowers and Tre Tucker will eat. On the other side, the Jets' offense isn't built to pull away. Their season high is 25 points, they've turned only 9 of 19 red-zone trips into touchdowns, and five of their seven games were decided by one score. If the Raiders put up their usual 21-plus, the Jets have to play their best offensive game of the year to keep pace. The risks are real. The Raiders' run defense allowed 199, 165 and 189 rushing yards in three of the last four games, and Braelon Allen has run for 104, 78 and 116 in the Jets' last three. Opponents have scored touchdowns on 22 of 28 red-zone trips against Las Vegas. The 1 PM kickoff is 10 AM on the Raiders' body clock. If the Jets grind the clock and finish drives, this gets away. Still, the biggest change from last week is the Jets losing three front-seven players, and the price doesn't reflect it. In a game this close to a coin flip, I'll take the side with the better matchup and get paid plus money for it. Raiders to win outright.