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NFL · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM

New York Jets at Chicago Bears

O/U 37.5 · SPREAD Chicago Bears -13.5 · Soldier Field

GARY'S PICK
Jets +3.5
NFL@ Bears· -112

Jets
+3.5

-112 · LOST · NYJ 12 · CHI 23

Bears

The pick & result

Published pick
New York Jets +3.5 -112
Published odds
-112
Result
Lost
Final score
12-23

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 35 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 28 6:00 AM
Close
Oct 4 12:50 PM
Move
SPREADChicago Bears -3 (-108)Chicago Bears -3.5 (-105)+½
TOTAL43 (-110)43.5 (-110)+½
MONEYLINEChicago Bears -160Chicago Bears -190−30
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 28 6:00 AMChicago Bears -3 (-108)43 (-110)Chicago Bears -160 · New York Jets +130
Sep 28 1:46 PMChicago Bears -3 (-108)43 (-110)Chicago Bears -155 · New York Jets +130
Sep 28 3:47 PMChicago Bears -3 (-105)43 (-110)Chicago Bears -155 · New York Jets +130
Sep 28 4:17 PMChicago Bears -3 (-105)43 (-112)Chicago Bears -155 · New York Jets +130
Sep 29 10:01 AMChicago Bears -3.5 (-105)43 (-112)Chicago Bears -185 · New York Jets +150
Sep 29 11:03 AMChicago Bears -3.5 (+100)43 (-108)Chicago Bears -175 · New York Jets +150
Sep 29 12:03 PMChicago Bears -3.5 (-105)43 (-108)Chicago Bears -175 · New York Jets +145
Sep 29 5:05 PMChicago Bears -3.5 (+100)43 (-108)Chicago Bears -175 · New York Jets +145
Sep 29 9:09 PMChicago Bears -3.5 (-105)43 (-110)Chicago Bears -175 · New York Jets +145
Sep 30 12:09 AMChicago Bears -3 (-118)43 (-110)Chicago Bears -175 · New York Jets +145
Sep 30 6:00 AMChicago Bears -3 (-125)43 (-110)Chicago Bears -175 · New York Jets +150
Sep 30 9:31 AMChicago Bears -3.5 (-105)43 (-110)Chicago Bears -175 · New York Jets +145
Sep 30 11:32 AMChicago Bears -3.5 (-102)43 (-110)Chicago Bears -185 · New York Jets +150
Sep 30 5:35 PMChicago Bears -3.5 (-102)43 (-108)Chicago Bears -185 · New York Jets +150
Sep 30 11:35 PMChicago Bears -3.5 (-102)43 (-110)Chicago Bears -185 · New York Jets +150
Oct 1 2:34 PMChicago Bears -3.5 (-102)43 (-110)Chicago Bears -175 · New York Jets +145
Oct 1 4:34 PMChicago Bears -3.5 (-102)43 (-110)Chicago Bears -175 · New York Jets +145
Oct 2 5:32 PMChicago Bears -3.5 (-110)43 (-110)Chicago Bears -190 · New York Jets +155
Oct 3 6:30 AMChicago Bears -3.5 (-110)43 (-110)Chicago Bears -185 · New York Jets +150
Oct 3 11:39 AMChicago Bears -3.5 (-110)43 (-110)Chicago Bears -190 · New York Jets +155
Oct 3 7:19 PMChicago Bears -3.5 (-108)43 (-110)Chicago Bears -190 · New York Jets +155
Oct 3 11:14 PMChicago Bears -3.5 (-110)43 (-110)Chicago Bears -190 · New York Jets +155
Oct 4 6:30 AMChicago Bears -3.5 (-110)43.5 (-105)Chicago Bears -190 · New York Jets +160
Oct 4 7:20 AMChicago Bears -3.5 (-110)43.5 (-110)Chicago Bears -190 · New York Jets +155
Oct 4 7:41 AMChicago Bears -3.5 (-110)43.5 (-110)Chicago Bears -190 · New York Jets +160
Oct 4 8:22 AMChicago Bears -3.5 (-110)43.5 (-110)Chicago Bears -190 · New York Jets +155
Oct 4 9:11 AMChicago Bears -3.5 (-112)43.5 (-110)Chicago Bears -190 · New York Jets +160
Oct 4 9:18 AMChicago Bears -3.5 (-110)43.5 (-108)Chicago Bears -190 · New York Jets +155
Oct 4 10:00 AMChicago Bears -3.5 (-105)43.5 (-108)Chicago Bears -190 · New York Jets +155
Oct 4 11:30 AMChicago Bears -3.5 (-108)43.5 (-108)Chicago Bears -190 · New York Jets +155
Oct 4 11:40 AMChicago Bears -3.5 (-105)43.5 (-108)Chicago Bears -190 · New York Jets +155
Oct 4 11:50 AMChicago Bears -3.5 (-105)43.5 (-110)Chicago Bears -190 · New York Jets +160
Oct 4 12:10 PMChicago Bears -3.5 (-105)43.5 (-108)Chicago Bears -190 · New York Jets +160
Oct 4 12:20 PMChicago Bears -3.5 (-105)43.5 (-108)Chicago Bears -190 · New York Jets +155
Oct 4 12:40 PMChicago Bears -3.5 (-102)43.5 (-108)Chicago Bears -190 · New York Jets +155
CLOSEOct 4 12:50 PMChicago Bears -3.5 (-105)43.5 (-110)Chicago Bears -190 · New York Jets +160

The read

I'm taking the Jets at +3.5. Two things carry this pick: Chicago's quarterback situation and the hook on the 3 in a game totaled at only 43.5.

1) This line is priced off a Bears team that won't be on the field. Most of Chicago's 2026 numbers came with Caleb Williams at quarterback: 29.7 points per game, 0.127 EPA per play and the 59-37 win at Carolina. Williams is out with a Grade 2 hamstring. The expected starter is Tyson Bagent, though the team hadn't confirmed it at the cutoff. Bagent's whole 2026 sample is 5 of 9 for 54 yards before leaving the Minnesota game with a concussion, and the last regular-season start was in 2023. The Monday-night 27-7 win over Philadelphia is what got people excited, but that was Case Keenum. Philadelphia also lost Jalen Hurts mid-game, the backup threw the end-zone interception, and three takeaways covered for a first half where Ben Johnson admitted the Eagles were moving the ball. Bagent will also play behind a new left tackle. Braxton Jones went on IR Saturday and Theo Benedet starts, a fresh change the number hasn't absorbed through a full week. D'Andre Swift is questionable after missing Thursday's practice. In the secondary, Cam Lewis is doubtful after playing 76% of snaps across safety and nickel, and Kyler Gordon can't be activated until Monday. Hand me an unproven backup, a reshuffled line and a thin secondary, and I'm happy to take points from a primetime blowout.

2) The Jets offense that matters is still intact. The run game was already bad at 3.26 yards per carry, so losing Breece Hall costs less than the name suggests. This offense runs on Geno Smith: 75.5% completions, 4 touchdowns, no interceptions and 321 yards in Detroit. Smith did that without Adonai Mitchell or Mason Taylor, who are both out again, so there's a recent game showing the passing attack works without them. Chicago plays single-high coverage on 60.2% of dropbacks, and against single-high Smith is completing 88.9% at 10.3 yards per attempt (Next Gen Stats via the Jets' preview). The Bears allow 6.08 yards per play and 7.82 per pass attempt. Their 17.7 points allowed per game rests on takeaways more than on stopping people.

On the other side, the Jets defense allows the fewest yards per play in this matchup (4.83) and only a 6.2% explosive rate. Fitzpatrick is reported back and declared himself ready after a full Thursday practice, but game-day status wasn't confirmed at the cutoff. Glenn also spent years game-planning against Johnson's offense in Detroit practices. With a backup QB and a red-zone offense already at -0.13 EPA on 49 snaps, Chicago is more likely to settle for field goals, and field goals keep a 3.5-point spread live. Both Jets losses were one-possession games, 20-17 in overtime and 31-24. The extra half point over 3 is worth more than the moneyline at +150, so I want the points.

The best case against me is Jets pass protection. Smith was sacked five times in Detroit, Dylan Parham is out at left guard, and his replacement Jordan Meredith missed the blitz pickup that led to the game-ending strip-sack. Chicago's run game leads the league, and the Jets defense hasn't intercepted a pass in 20 games, so it won't steal many possessions. If the Bears control the ball and win the turnover battle again, they can cover. Even so, I'm not laying more than a field goal with Bagent, a new left tackle and a short-handed secondary when the other team has the better quarterback right now.

Injuries noted

New York Jets: Tyler Baron (PUP-R) — The Jets moved Baron (knee) to the reserve/PUP list Sunday, Eric Allen and Amanda Vogt of the team's official site report.; Kingsley Jonathan (IR) — ir; VJ Payne (IR-R) — ir; Tre Brown (IR) — Brown (undisclosed) was placed on the Jets' injured reserve Sunday, Amanda Vogt and Eric Allen of the team's official site report.; Anez Cooper (IR-R) — The Jets placed Cooper (shoulder) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Al Iannazzone of Newsday reports.; Chip Trayanum (IR) — Trayanum (neck) was placed on injured reserve by the Jets on Sunday, Eric Allen & Amanda Vogt of the team's official website report.; Tim Patrick (IR) — The Jets placed Patrick (groin) on injured reserve Saturday, Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic reports.; Kene Nwangwu (Questionable) — Nwangwu (back) was limited in Wednesday's practice, Antwan V. Staley of the New York Daily News reports.; Omar Cooper Jr. (IR) — The Jets are expected to place Cooper (ankle) on injured reserve, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.; Minkah Fitzpatrick (Questionable) — Coach Aaron Glenn said Fitzpatrick (groin) will be limited in Wednesday's practice, Antwan V. Staley of the New York Daily News reports.; Marcelino McCrary-Ball (IR) — ir; David Onyemata (IR) — Onyemata (groin) underwent core-muscle surgery Wednesday, Antwan V. Staley of the New York Daily News reports.; Mason Taylor (Out) — Taylor (thumb) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Bears, Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic reports.; Arian Smith (IR) — Smith (knee) underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a torn ACL and will miss the rest of the season, Antwan V. Staley of the New York Daily News reports.; Adonai Mitchell (Out) — Mitchell (finger) is out for Sunday's game against the Bears, Zack Rosenblatt reports.; Breece Hall (Out) — Hall (quadriceps) is out for Sunday's game at Chicago, according to Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic.; Dylan Parham (Out) — Parham (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Bears, Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic reports.; Kenyon Sadiq (Questionable) — Sadiq (back) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Bears.; Kingsley Enagbare (Questionable) — Enagbare (knee) was unable to participate in practice Thursday.; Jeremy Ruckert (Questionable) — Ruckert (knee) was a limited participant in practice Thursday.

Chicago Bears: Shemar Turner (PUP-R) — The Bears opened the 21-day practice window for Turner (knee) on Wednesday, Kevin Fishbain of The Athletic reports.; Noah Sewell (PUP-R) — The Bears opened the 21-day practice window for Sewell (Achilles) on Wednesday, Kevin Fishbain of The Athletic reports.; Kyler Gordon (PUP-R) — Gordon (calf) was estimated as a full participant on the Bears' official injury report Wednesday.; Coby Bryant (IR) — The Bears placed Bryant (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Dallis Flowers (IR) — ir; Jonathan Garvin (IR) — ir; Brittain Brown (IR) — Brown (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Bears on Sunday.; Tony Fields II (IR-R) — The Bears placed Fields (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return.; Ruben Hyppolite II (IR) — Hyppolite (shoulder) reverted to Chicago's injured reserve Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Nikola Kalinic (IR) — Knee; Hayden Large (IR) — The Bears placed Large (undisclosed) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Nephi Sewell (IR) — Concussion; D'Andre Swift (Questionable) — Swift (knee) is expected to practice Friday, Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune reports.; Caleb Williams (Out) — out; Braxton Jones (IR) — The Bears placed Jones (knee) on injured reserve Saturday.; Cam Lewis (Doubtful) — Lewis (leg) is listed as doubtful for Sunday's game against the Jets.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Geno Smith is the projected starting quarterback for NYJ

    7.68 Y/A

    Through 3 games in 2026, Geno Smith threw for 783 passing yards, completed 75.5% of his passes and averaged 7.68 yards per attempt. Last season over 15 games he threw for 3025 yards, completed 67.4% and averaged 6.75 yards per attempt, 19-17 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

  • Tyson Bagent is the projected starting quarterback for CHI

    6 Y/A

    In his first 2026 game, Tyson Bagent threw for 54 passing yards, completed 55.6% of his passes and averaged 6 yards per attempt. Last season over 3 games he threw for 47 yards, completed 75% and averaged 11.75 yards per attempt, 0-0 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 0-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 1 game in.

TRENCHES

  • CHI: 184.3 rushing yards per game to NYJ's 92.3

    92 YPG

    Chicago is running for 184.3 yards a game, roughly double the Jets' 92.3 over three games. The Bears were already a strong ground team at 144.5 last season, so some of this is real, while the Jets have fallen from 123.3. If Chicago can lean on the run at home, it shortens the game and keeps the Jets offense off the field, which points toward rushing props and a slower game script.

  • CHI: 5.17 yards per rush attempt to NYJ's 3.17

    2 Y/C

    Chicago is getting 5.17 yards a carry over three games, a bit above its 4.75 last season, while the Jets have cratered from 4.53 to 3.17. The Jets' drop is the bigger story and likely overstated on a three-game sample. Still on the road, New York may struggle to stay balanced, which pushes them toward a pass-heavy script against a Bears offense that can run.

  • NYJ: 87.3 rushing yards allowed per game to CHI's 117

    29.7 YPG

    The Jets have held opponents to 87.3 rushing yards a game over 3 games, while Chicago allows 117. That gap means the Bears' ground game faces a tougher wall than the Jets' backs will. Rushing totals depend on game script, since teams that trail stop running, so three games can flatter a defense. If Chicago falls behind, expect its run game to fade, and if the Jets lead, they get room to grind.

PASS RUSH

  • CHI: 12.3 sack yards lost per game to NYJ's 24.3

    12 YDS

    NYJ is at 24.3 sack yards lost per game over 3 games; CHI is at 12.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season NYJ was at 24.9 over 17 games and CHI at 12.7 over 17 games.

  • CHI: 2 sacks taken per game to NYJ's 3

    1 SACKS

    NYJ is at 3 sacks taken per game over 3 games; CHI is at 2 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season NYJ was at 3.75 over 17 games and CHI at 1.85 over 17 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • CHI: 29.7 points per game to NYJ's 21.3

    8.3 PPG

    Chicago is scoring 29.7 points a game through three, up from 25.9 last season, and the Jets are at 21.3 after 17.6. Both offenses are scoring more than they did a year ago, but the Bears have the stronger history to back theirs. With Chicago at home, it carries the scoring load here, and the Jets' rise is the number more likely to slide back.

  • NYJ @ CHI carries a 42.5 market total

    42.5

    The current fanduel total is 42.5, 4 points below the 46.5 median across 15 games with posted totals on this slate.

TURNOVERS

  • CHI: 2 takeaways per game to NYJ's 0.67

    1.33 TO

    Chicago forces 2 takeaways a game, while the Jets force 0.67. Takeaways are among the streakiest defensive numbers, and 3 games is a short window, so both rates can change quickly. Turnovers can flip a game, so Chicago's ball-hawking matters if the Jets offense gets loose with the football.

  • NYJ: 0.33 turnovers committed per game to CHI's 1

    0.67 TO

    NYJ is at 0.33 turnovers committed per game over 3 games; CHI is at 1 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season NYJ was at 1.35 over 17 games and CHI at 0.65 over 17 games.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • CHI: 5.83 yards per play to NYJ's 5.1

    0.73 Y/P

    Chicago is more efficient per play, though the Jets are the team that changed: NYJ is at 5.1 over three games after 4.36 last season, with six 20-plus plays in their last game, three from Geno Smith to targets like Kenyon Sadiq and Garrett Wilson. CHI's 5.83 sits close to last season's 5.71, so that number looks stable. Three games is thin for the Jets' jump, so weigh how much of their big-play burst carries over before trusting it.

RED ZONE

  • NYJ: 66.7% red-zone scoring rate to CHI's 50%

    16.7 PP

    NYJ is at 66.7% red-zone scoring rate over 3 games; CHI is at 50% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season NYJ was at 44.7% over 17 games and CHI at 58.2% over 17 games.

  • CHI: 4 red-zone trips per game to NYJ's 3

    1 TRIPS

    NYJ is at 3 red-zone trips per game over 3 games; CHI is at 4 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season NYJ was at 2.24 over 17 games and CHI at 3.24 over 17 games.

MISMATCH

  • CHI: 184.3 rush yards a game to NYJ's 92.3

    184.3 VS 92.3

    Chicago is running for 184.3 yards a game over three games, double the Jets' 92.3. The Bears were already a strong run team last season at 144.5, while the Jets fell from 123.3, so the direction fits even if the size is inflated by three games. If Chicago leans on the ground at home, New York has to load the box and dare the Bears to throw, which matters for game pace and the total.

COVERAGE

  • NYJ: 4.67 yards per play allowed to CHI's 5.93

    1.27 Y/P

    The Jets allow 4.67 yards per snap, Chicago allows 5.93. Over three games that is a meaningful gap, since yards per play smooths out game script better than raw totals. It can still move once each defense sees a different style of offense. In this matchup, the Jets defense looks harder to move the ball on, which pushes toward a grind for the Bears offense.

  • NYJ: 171 passing yards allowed per game to CHI's 207

    36 YPG

    NYJ is at 171 passing yards allowed per game over 3 games; CHI is at 207 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 3.

REPLACEMENT

  • Braiden McGregor (DE) is questionable for NYJ

    QUESTIONABLE

    McGregor left Sunday's game against the Bears with a chest injury and never came back. Questionable means it is close to a coin flip whether he suits up, and a chest injury that knocks a player out mid-game usually needs the full week of practice reports before anyone knows. The sheet does not name his role or a replacement, so watch his practice participation later in the week before leaning on anything tied to the Jets pass rush.

  • Kyler Gordon (CB) is pup-r for CHI

    PUP-R

    Gordon is coming off a calf injury and was estimated as a full participant Wednesday, the best practice note a returning player can get. The PUP tag means Chicago still has to activate him before he can face the Jets. If he is activated, the Bears get a starting-caliber corner back, which makes the Jets' passing game a tougher spot.

  • Braxton Jones (OT) is on injured reserve for CHI

    IR

    Jones, a Bears tackle, went on injured reserve Saturday with a knee injury, so he is out against the Jets. A backup takes over at tackle, which can mean more pressure on Chicago's quarterback. That is a small lean against Bears passing efficiency if the Jets get home on the edge.

  • Arian Smith (WR) is on injured reserve for NYJ

    IR

    Smith tore his ACL and had surgery to repair it, ending his season. The Jets lose a receiver for good, and his snaps are already folded into the rest of the group, so this news should be fully priced in for the game at Chicago.

  • Noah Sewell (LB) is pup-r for CHI

    PUP-R

    Sewell is a Bears linebacker coming back from an Achilles injury, and Chicago opened his 21-day practice window on Wednesday, Sep 23. He can practice now but still needs to be activated to play. Achilles injuries are slow to return from, so even if he is activated for the Jets game, a limited role is more likely than a full workload.

  • Shemar Turner (DT) is pup-r for CHI

    PUP-R

    Turner is a Bears defensive tackle who has been on the reserve physically unable to perform list with a knee injury, and Chicago opened his 21-day practice window on Wednesday, Sep 24. That means he can practice with the team now, but he is not on the active roster until the Bears activate him. Opening the window is a step toward a return, so keep an eye on whether he is activated before the Jets game rather than assuming he plays.

  • David Onyemata (DT) is on injured reserve for NYJ

    IR

    Onyemata (groin) underwent core-muscle surgery Wednesday, Antwan V. Staley of the New York Daily News reports. Reported Sep 23.

  • Marcelino McCrary-Ball (LB) is on injured reserve for NYJ

    IR

    NYJ lists Marcelino McCrary-Ball as on injured reserve on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Kiko Mauigoa

    Out

    Quadricep · Did not practice · Out

  • Dylan Parham

    Out

    Knee · Did not practice · Out

  • Mason Taylor

    Out

    Thumb · Did not practice · Out

  • Adonai Mitchell

    Out

    Finger · Did not practice · Out

  • Caleb Williams

    Out

    Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

  • Breece Hall

    Out

    Quadricep · Did not practice · Out

  • Cam Lewis

    Doubtful

    Hip · Did not practice · Doubtful

  • Kenyon Sadiq

    Questionable

    Back · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Kingsley Enagbare

    Questionable

    Knee · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Jonah Jackson

    FP

    Full practice

  • Joe Thuney

    FP

    Full practice

  • Kene Nwangwu

    FP

    Full practice

  • Grady Jarrett

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jeremy Ruckert

    FP

    Full practice

  • D'Andre Swift

    FP

    Full practice

  • Minkah Fitzpatrick

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • NYJ (1-2) at CHI (2-1)

    +33 PT GAP

    The Jets are 1-2 but +3 on points, so their record looks worse than their play, with two straight losses. Chicago's +36 is the stronger profile, though the Bears are only 1-1 at home. Over three games, point margin usually says more about a team than wins do, and the Jets' margin hints at close losses that could swing back. A big number toward Chicago may be leaning too hard on the records.

  • NYJ: 75% fourth-down conversion rate to CHI's 57.1%

    17.9 PP

    NYJ is at 75% fourth-down conversion rate over 3 games; CHI is at 57.1% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season NYJ was at 43.9% over 17 games and CHI at 51.7% over 17 games.

AFTER GARY

  • NYJ +3.5 → +3.5

    NOW +0.45PP

    Gary's number was 3.5; the market closed at 3.5.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 1, 2026 at 4:37 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    KALIF RAYMONDRECEPTIONS OVER 3.5
    NFLChicago Bears· +116

    Kalif Raymond
    Receptions over 3.5

    +116 · LOST · ACTUAL 2

    Chicago Bears

    I'm taking Kalif Raymond over 3.5 receptions at +116.

    The role is the reason. Through three games Raymond has caught 6, 5 and 8 passes on 21 targets, so almost everything thrown his way gets caught. Those 21 targets lead the Bears out of the 90 thrown to their pass catchers. The catches held up through the Minnesota game where Caleb Williams went down and through Case Keenum's start against Philadelphia. He's the short-area answer in Ben Johnson's offense. All but one of his targets have come under 20 air yards, and his eight third-down catches are tied for second in the league. His coaches say he runs every route exactly as drawn, which is the kind of receiver a backup quarterback looks for first.

    The matchup pushes Chicago toward exactly that kind of throw. Tyson Bagent is the expected starter, though the team hadn't confirmed it, and Aaron Glenn singled out how quickly the Bears' backups get the ball out. The Jets defense gives up the fewest yards per play in this game and almost no explosive plays, so Chicago will have to move the ball in short pieces. The Bears are also starting Theo Benedet at left tackle after Braxton Jones went on IR Saturday, facing a rush led by rookie David Bailey. A new tackle and a backup quarterback usually means more quick game, and the quick game is where Raymond catches the ball. The book has only moved his number from 2.5 to 3.5 and still hangs a plus price on it.

    The case against me starts with sample size. This is three games. Last season in Detroit he played a depth role and never caught more than four passes in any of his eight games. He's also a rotational piece, playing 45 to 54 snaps a game while Rome Odunze plays nearly every down. Chicago leads the league in rushing and runs more than expected. If D'Andre Swift is active and the Bears lean on the ground with a backup quarterback, the pass attempts could be low, and Luther Burden is right behind Raymond in targets. I'll still take plus money on the receiver this offense keeps going to on third down.

  • GARY'S PICK
    COLSTON LOVELANDRECEPTIONS UNDER 3.5
    NFLChicago Bears· -127

    Colston Loveland
    Receptions under 3.5

    -127 · LOST · ACTUAL 6

    Chicago Bears

    I'm taking Colston Loveland under 3.5 receptions at -127.

    Loveland is on the field plenty, 57 to 65 snaps every week, but the ball hasn't followed him. He's seen 2, 3 and 4 targets and caught 0, 1 and 4 passes, nine targets out of the team's 90 through three games. Raymond and Burden handle the short middle work in this offense, and Cole Kmet is still taking a real share of the tight end snaps. That leaves Loveland as a blocker and a fourth or fifth read on most dropbacks.

    The game script fits the under. The Jets have allowed only 12 catches to tight ends all season, and that covers the whole position across three games. Loveland would need nearly all of that with Kmet in the rotation. Chicago runs more than expected and leads the league on the ground, and both of these teams hold the ball over 34 minutes a game, which means fewer possessions for each offense. With Bagent expected under center and Theo Benedet making his first start at left tackle after Braxton Jones went on IR Saturday, the Bears have reason to keep a tight end in to help against David Bailey. That costs Loveland routes.

    The strongest case against me is last season. Loveland caught at least three passes in all ten of the games I have from 2025 and averaged close to five, so he's shown he can carry a bigger load. He also caught all four of his targets from Keenum last Monday, and the Jets have let tight ends catch nearly everything thrown at them so far. A backup quarterback under pressure could lean on a big target over the middle. The market already dropped this number from 4.5 to 3.5, which is why I'm paying juice. Three games of thin usage in this offense is still the role I trust, and four catches is a lot to ask from it.

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