Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets
O/U 46.5 · SPREAD New York Jets -1.5 · MetLife Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Las Vegas Raiders ML +112
- Published odds
- +112
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 38-33
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 44 moves| Market | Opened Oct 25 7:53 PM | Close Sun 12:23 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | New York Jets -1 (-108) | New York Jets -2 (-105) | +1 |
| TOTAL | 44.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-108) | +2 |
| MONEYLINE | New York Jets -118 | New York Jets -130 | −12 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 25 7:53 PM | New York Jets -1 (-108) | 44.5 (-108) | New York Jets -118 · Las Vegas Raiders -102 |
| Oct 25 8:53 PM | New York Jets -1 (-108) | 44.5 (-108) | New York Jets -115 · Las Vegas Raiders -105 |
| Oct 25 11:23 PM | New York Jets -1 (-105) | 44.5 (-108) | New York Jets -112 · Las Vegas Raiders -105 |
| Oct 26 6:30 AM | New York Jets -1 (-105) | 44.5 (-110) | New York Jets -112 · Las Vegas Raiders -105 |
| Oct 26 8:31 AM | New York Jets -1 (-102) | 44.5 (-110) | New York Jets -110 · Las Vegas Raiders -108 |
| Oct 26 9:00 AM | New York Jets -1 (-102) | 44.5 (-108) | New York Jets -110 · Las Vegas Raiders -108 |
| Oct 26 9:31 AM | New York Jets -1 (-102) | 44.5 (-110) | New York Jets -110 · Las Vegas Raiders -108 |
| Oct 26 2:03 PM | New York Jets -1 (-105) | 44.5 (-110) | New York Jets -112 · Las Vegas Raiders -105 |
| Oct 26 4:03 PM | New York Jets -1 (-105) | 45 (-108) | New York Jets -115 · Las Vegas Raiders -105 |
| Oct 26 5:03 PM | New York Jets -1 (-105) | 44.5 (-110) | New York Jets -112 · Las Vegas Raiders -105 |
| Oct 26 5:55 PM | New York Jets -1 (-105) | 45.5 (-108) | New York Jets -112 · Las Vegas Raiders -108 |
| Oct 26 6:05 PM | New York Jets -1 (-105) | 45.5 (-110) | New York Jets -112 · Las Vegas Raiders -108 |
| Oct 26 7:56 PM | New York Jets -1 (-105) | 45.5 (-108) | New York Jets -112 · Las Vegas Raiders -105 |
| Oct 27 8:31 AM | New York Jets -1 (-102) | 45.5 (-108) | New York Jets -110 · Las Vegas Raiders -108 |
| Oct 27 3:01 PM | New York Jets -1 (-108) | 45.5 (-108) | New York Jets -115 · Las Vegas Raiders -105 |
| Oct 27 4:02 PM | New York Jets -1.5 (-108) | 45.5 (-108) | New York Jets -120 · Las Vegas Raiders +100 |
| Oct 27 7:04 PM | New York Jets -1.5 (-110) | 45.5 (-108) | New York Jets -125 · Las Vegas Raiders +105 |
| Oct 28 5:48 PM | New York Jets -1.5 (-110) | 45.5 (-110) | New York Jets -125 · Las Vegas Raiders +105 |
| Thu 8:30 AM | New York Jets -1.5 (-108) | 45.5 (-110) | New York Jets -125 · Las Vegas Raiders +105 |
| Fri 12:28 AM | New York Jets -1.5 (-108) | 45.5 (-110) | New York Jets -120 · Las Vegas Raiders +100 |
| Fri 6:02 PM | New York Jets -1.5 (-108) | 46 (-108) | New York Jets -120 · Las Vegas Raiders +100 |
| Fri 10:03 PM | New York Jets -1.5 (-108) | 45.5 (-110) | New York Jets -120 · Las Vegas Raiders +100 |
| Sat 12:03 AM | New York Jets -1.5 (-108) | 46 (-108) | New York Jets -120 · Las Vegas Raiders +100 |
| Sat 6:00 AM | New York Jets -1.5 (-108) | 45.5 (-110) | New York Jets -120 · Las Vegas Raiders +100 |
| Sat 9:00 AM | New York Jets -1.5 (-108) | 46 (-108) | New York Jets -120 · Las Vegas Raiders +100 |
| Sat 10:01 AM | New York Jets -1.5 (-108) | 45.5 (-110) | New York Jets -120 · Las Vegas Raiders +100 |
| Sat 1:32 PM | New York Jets -1.5 (-108) | 46 (-108) | New York Jets -120 · Las Vegas Raiders +100 |
| Sat 2:02 PM | New York Jets -1.5 (-108) | 45.5 (-110) | New York Jets -120 · Las Vegas Raiders +100 |
| Sat 5:34 PM | New York Jets -1.5 (-110) | 45.5 (-110) | New York Jets -120 · Las Vegas Raiders +100 |
| Sat 6:04 PM | New York Jets -1.5 (-110) | 45.5 (-110) | New York Jets -120 · Las Vegas Raiders +100 |
| Sat 8:05 PM | New York Jets -1.5 (-110) | 46 (-108) | New York Jets -120 · Las Vegas Raiders +105 |
| Sat 9:35 PM | New York Jets -1.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-108) | New York Jets -125 · Las Vegas Raiders +105 |
| Sun 12:35 AM | New York Jets -1.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-108) | New York Jets -120 · Las Vegas Raiders +100 |
| Sun 4:45 AM | New York Jets -1.5 (-110) | 46 (-108) | New York Jets -120 · Las Vegas Raiders +100 |
| Sun 6:30 AM | New York Jets -1.5 (-110) | 46 (-110) | New York Jets -120 · Las Vegas Raiders +105 |
| Sun 8:31 AM | New York Jets -1.5 (-110) | 46 (-110) | New York Jets -125 · Las Vegas Raiders +105 |
| Sun 9:00 AM | New York Jets -2 (-108) | 46 (-110) | New York Jets -125 · Las Vegas Raiders +105 |
| Sun 9:18 AM | New York Jets -2 (-108) | 46.5 (-108) | New York Jets -130 · Las Vegas Raiders +110 |
| Sun 10:31 AM | New York Jets -2 (-110) | 46.5 (-108) | New York Jets -130 · Las Vegas Raiders +110 |
| Sun 11:21 AM | New York Jets -2 (-108) | 46 (-110) | New York Jets -135 · Las Vegas Raiders +110 |
| Sun 11:42 AM | New York Jets -2 (-105) | 46 (-110) | New York Jets -130 · Las Vegas Raiders +110 |
| Sun 11:52 AM | New York Jets -2 (-105) | 46.5 (-108) | New York Jets -135 · Las Vegas Raiders +110 |
| Sun 12:00 PM | New York Jets -2 (-105) | 46.5 (-108) | New York Jets -130 · Las Vegas Raiders +110 |
| Sun 12:13 PM | New York Jets -2 (-105) | 46.5 (-108) | New York Jets -135 · Las Vegas Raiders +110 |
| CLOSESun 12:23 PM | New York Jets -2 (-105) | 46.5 (-108) | New York Jets -130 · Las Vegas Raiders +110 |
The read
The Raiders have dropped four straight. The Jets just lost at home to a Dolphins team that's 1-5. The market has the Jets as a short home favorite, but the injury report says the Jets' defense isn't the same unit that played last week.
The Jets' pass rush got gutted. David Bailey is doubtful after missing practice all three days. Bailey played 94% and 97% of snaps the last two weeks and owns 5.5 of the team's 19 sacks, including 3 of the 8 in the Browns win, their best defensive day of the year. Joseph Ossai is out. T'Vondre Sweat and linebacker Kiko Mauigoa both went to IR. Next up on the edge is Nate Lynn, who was on the practice squad through Week 4 and has played 5% and 12% of snaps the last two games.
That thinned-out front runs into the one thing Las Vegas does well. The Raiders can't run: Ashton Jeanty has 64 yards on 28 carries over the last three games. But Kirk Cousins has thrown for 295, 313 and 365 yards in three of the last four starts, and the Raiders have scored 21 or more in six of seven. The forecast is 61 degrees and clear with a 5 mph wind. Give Cousins a clean pocket and Brock Bowers and Tre Tucker will eat.
On the other side, the Jets' offense isn't built to pull away. Their season high is 25 points, they've turned only 9 of 19 red-zone trips into touchdowns, and five of their seven games were decided by one score. If the Raiders put up their usual 21-plus, the Jets have to play their best offensive game of the year to keep pace.
The risks are real. The Raiders' run defense allowed 199, 165 and 189 rushing yards in three of the last four games, and Braelon Allen has run for 104, 78 and 116 in the Jets' last three. Opponents have scored touchdowns on 22 of 28 red-zone trips against Las Vegas. The 1 PM kickoff is 10 AM on the Raiders' body clock. If the Jets grind the clock and finish drives, this gets away.
Still, the biggest change from last week is the Jets losing three front-seven players, and the price doesn't reflect it. In a game this close to a coin flip, I'll take the side with the better matchup and get paid plus money for it. Raiders to win outright.
Injuries noted
Las Vegas Raiders: Chris Collier (IR) — Collier (undisclosed) reverted to injured reserve with the Raiders on Sunday.; Justin Pickett (IR); Chigozie Anusiem (IR) — The Raiders placed Anusiem (knee) on injured reserve Saturday.; Keyron Crawford (IR) — The Raiders placed Crawford (ankle) on injured reserve Sunday.; Brennan Jackson (IR) — ir; Carter Runyon (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: foot; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full. Runyon (foot) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Jets.; Patrick Johnson (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: stinger; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 DNP. The Raiders placed Johnson (neck) on injured reserve Saturday.; Jackson Powers-Johnson (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: back; practice by report day: Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 Limited.; Foley Fatukasi (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: shoulder; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Ian Thomas (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: shoulder; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Kwity Paye (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: not injury related - resting player; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Eric Stokes (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: illness; practice by report day: Sat, Oct 31 Limited.; Quay Walker (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: chest; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Brock Bowers (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: calf; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; DJ Glaze (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Jack Bech (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: forearm; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.
New York Jets: Tyler Baron (PUP-R) — The Jets moved Baron (knee) to the reserve/PUP list Sunday.; Kingsley Jonathan (IR) — ir; VJ Payne (IR); Tre Brown (IR) — Brown (undisclosed) was placed on the Jets' injured reserve Sunday.; Anez Cooper (IR-R) — The Jets placed Cooper (shoulder) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return.; Chip Trayanum (IR) — Trayanum (neck) was placed on injured reserve by the Jets on Sunday.; Marcelino McCrary-Ball (IR) — ir; David Onyemata (IR) — Onyemata (groin) underwent core-muscle surgery Wednesday.; Arian Smith (IR) — Smith (knee) underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a torn ACL and will miss the rest of the season.; Breece Hall (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: quadricep; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Limited. Hall (quadriceps) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Raiders.; Dylan Parham (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Braiden McGregor (IR) — McGregor (pectoral) was placed on the Jets' injured reserve list Wednesday.; Joseph Ossai (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 DNP. Ossai (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against Las Vegas.; Kiko Mauigoa (IR) — The Jets placed Mauigoa (quadriceps) on injured reserve Saturday.; Max Mitchell (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: concussion; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 DNP. Mitchell (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Raiders.; T'Vondre Sweat (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 DNP. The Jets placed Sweat (knee) on injured reserve Saturday.; David Bailey (Doubtful) — Official report, Wk 8: groin; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 DNP. Bailey (groin) is listed as doubtful for Sunday's game against the Raiders.; Demario Davis (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: not injury related - resting player; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Harrison Phillips (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: not injury related - resting player; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Braelon Allen (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Geno Smith is the projected starting quarterback for NYJ
7.84 Y/AThrough 7 games in 2026, Geno Smith threw for 1623 passing yards, completed 70% of his passes and averaged 7.84 yards per attempt. Last season over 15 games he threw for 3025 yards, completed 67.4% and averaged 6.75 yards per attempt, 19-17 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 10-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 7 games in.
Kirk Cousins is the projected starting quarterback for LV
7.3 Y/AThrough 7 games in 2026, Kirk Cousins threw for 1877 passing yards, completed 62.6% of his passes and averaged 7.3 yards per attempt. Last season over 10 games he threw for 1721 yards, completed 61.7% and averaged 6.4 yards per attempt, 10-5 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 16-5 touchdown-to-interception line is 7 games in.
TRENCHES
NYJ: 3.8 yards per rush attempt to LV's 2.96
0.84 Y/CLV is at 2.96 yards per rush attempt over 7 games; NYJ is at 3.8 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season LV was at 3.38 over 17 games and NYJ at 4.53 over 17 games.
NYJ: 96.4 rushing yards per game to LV's 74.7
21.7 YPGLV is at 74.7 rushing yards per game over 7 games; NYJ is at 96.4 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season LV was at 77.5 over 17 games and NYJ at 123.3 over 17 games.
PASS RUSH
LV: 7.9 sack yards lost per game to NYJ's 25.3
17.4 YDSThe Jets are losing 25.3 yards a game to sacks, close to last season's 24.9, so that problem has stuck. Las Vegas has cut its number sharply, from 29 last season to 7.9 over seven games. A drop that big in seven games could drift back some. For this game, the Jets' offense is more likely to lose drives to sacks than the Raiders.
LV: 1.43 sacks taken per game to NYJ's 3
1.57 SACKSThe Raiders are protecting the quarterback far better than the Jets, 1.43 sacks taken a game against 3 through seven games. Last season Las Vegas gave up 4 a game, so this is a sharp turnaround, while the Jets sit close to their 3.75 from last year. The Jets number looks like who they are. The Raiders number is a big swing from last season and could drift back some, so watch whether that line holds up on the road.
PACE & SCRIPT
NYJ: 21.4 points allowed per game to LV's 28.1
6.7 PPGLV is at 28.1 points allowed per game over 7 games; NYJ is at 21.4 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season LV was at 25.4 over 17 games and NYJ at 29.6 over 17 games.
LV: 26.1 points per game to NYJ's 19.6
6.6 PPGLV is at 26.1 points per game over 7 games; NYJ is at 19.6 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season LV was at 14.2 over 17 games and NYJ at 17.6 over 17 games.
LV: 64.3 offensive plays per game to NYJ's 58.1
6.1 PLAYSLV is at 64.3 offensive plays per game over 7 games; NYJ is at 58.1 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season LV was at 55.8 over 17 games and NYJ at 59.4 over 17 games.
TURNOVERS
LV: 1.71 takeaways per game to NYJ's 1.14
0.57 TOLV is at 1.71 takeaways per game over 7 games; NYJ is at 1.14 over 7 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 31.
NYJ: 0.71 turnovers committed per game to LV's 1.14
0.43 TOLV is at 1.14 turnovers committed per game over 7 games; NYJ is at 0.71 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season LV was at 1.35 over 17 games and NYJ at 1.35 over 17 games.
NYJ: 0.29 interceptions thrown per game to LV's 0.71
0.43 INTLV is at 0.71 interceptions thrown per game over 7 games; NYJ is at 0.29 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season LV was at 1.12 over 17 games and NYJ at 0.76 over 17 games.
RED ZONE
NYJ: 56% red-zone scoring allowed to LV's 78.6%
22.6 PPTeams reach the red zone against the Jets and come away with touchdowns 56% of the time over seven games, while the Raiders allow 78.6% over the same count. That is a big gap in finishing drives, and seven games is enough to take it seriously. For this game, the Jets bending without breaking near the goal line favors field goals over touchdowns when the Raiders get close.
LV: 4 red-zone trips per game to NYJ's 2.86
1.14 TRIPSLV is at 4 red-zone trips per game over 7 games; NYJ is at 2.86 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season LV was at 2.12 over 17 games and NYJ at 2.24 over 17 games.
MISMATCH
LV: 1.43 sacks taken a game to NYJ's 3
1.43 VS 3The Raiders have taken 1.43 sacks a game over seven games, the Jets 3 over seven. Las Vegas was at 4 a game last season, so its protection has improved sharply and some regression is possible. The Jets are close to last year's 3.75, which looks like who they are. Drive-killing sacks show up on third down and in the red zone, so the Jets' quarterback is the one most likely to stall drives at home.
COVERAGE
NYJ: 4.81 yards per play allowed to LV's 5.94
1.13 Y/PThe Jets allow 4.81 yards a play over 7 games, while Las Vegas gives up 5.94 in its 7. Yards per play holds up well over seven games, so the difference between these defenses is likely real, even though the sheet doesn't show who they played. At home, the Jets' defense should keep this game tighter than the Raiders' defense can on the other end.
NYJ: 187.7 passing yards allowed per game to LV's 230.1
42.4 YPGThe Jets allow 187.7 passing yards a game over seven games, against 230.1 for the Raiders over the same count. The Jets' coverage has held up across a decent sample. In this matchup, Las Vegas' passing game faces the tougher wall, a useful frame for Raiders receiving and passing props.
REPLACEMENT
Carter Runyon (TE) is ir-r for LV
IR-RCarter Runyon is out for the Jets game with a foot injury, per the Oct 30 report, and is on injured reserve with a designation to return. Las Vegas plays without this tight end on Sunday, so the other tight ends on the roster pick up those snaps and targets.
Patrick Johnson (DE) is on injured reserve for LV
IRThe Raiders put Johnson on injured reserve Saturday with a neck injury, reported Nov 1, so he will not suit up against the Jets. Injured reserve keeps a player out for several weeks at minimum, so this is a longer absence. The sheet does not say who takes his defensive end snaps, so watch Las Vegas's rotation up front when you size up this matchup.
T'Vondre Sweat (DT) is on injured reserve for NYJ
IRThe Jets placed Sweat on injured reserve Saturday with a knee injury, reported Oct 31, so he is out against the Raiders and for several weeks after. He is one of two Jets defenders on this list, with linebacker Kiko Mauigoa also on injured reserve. The sheet does not say who fills his defensive tackle snaps, so New York's run defense depth is the thing to price in here.
Kiko Mauigoa (LB) is on injured reserve for NYJ
IRThe Jets put Mauigoa on injured reserve Saturday with a quadriceps injury, reported Oct 24, ruling him out against Las Vegas. He is one of two Jets defenders on injured reserve on this sheet, with defensive tackle T'Vondre Sweat also out. The sheet does not name who replaces him at linebacker.
PRACTICE REPORT
Joseph Ossai
OutAnkle · Did not practice · Out
Max Mitchell
OutConcussion · Did not practice · Out
David Bailey
DoubtfulGroin · Did not practice · Doubtful
Jackson Powers-Johnson
QuestionableBack · Limited practice · Questionable
Dylan Parham
QuestionableKnee · Full practice · Questionable
Breece Hall
QuestionableQuadricep · Limited practice · Questionable
Jack Bech
QuestionableForearm · Full practice · Questionable
Eric Stokes
LPLimited practice
Brock Bowers
FPFull practice
Braelon Allen
FPFull practice
Harrison Phillips
FPFull practice
DJ Glaze
FPFull practice
Kwity Paye
FPFull practice
Ian Thomas
FPFull practice
Demario Davis
FPFull practice
Folorunso Fatukasi
FPFull practice
Quay Walker
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
LV: 269 team passing yards per game to NYJ's 206.6
62.4 YPGLas Vegas is throwing for far more than the Jets this year, 269 yards a game to 206.6 through seven games each. That is a big jump from last season, when the Raiders sat at 167.7 and the Jets at 140.3, so both offenses have leaned harder on the pass. Seven games is a real sample, but a jump that size can cool. If the Raiders keep airing it out in New York, the Jets likely have to answer through the air too, which points to a game shaped by passing volume.
LV: 49.6 penalty yards per game to NYJ's 69
19.4 YDSLV is at 49.6 penalty yards per game over 7 games; NYJ is at 69 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season LV was at 53 over 17 games and NYJ at 53.5 over 17 games.
LV: 20.9 first downs per game to NYJ's 17.6
3.3 FDLV is at 20.9 first downs per game over 7 games; NYJ is at 17.6 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season LV was at 15.1 over 17 games and NYJ at 16 over 17 games.
LV: 1.86 fourth-down attempts per game to NYJ's 1.14
0.71 ATT/GLV is at 1.86 fourth-down attempts per game over 7 games; NYJ is at 1.14 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season LV was at 1.88 over 17 games and NYJ at 2.41 over 17 games.
LV (3-4) at NYJ (2-5)
+1 PT GAPLas Vegas is 3-4, -14, and has lost four straight, but has been better on the road at 2-1. The Jets are 2-5, -13, have lost two straight, and are 1-2 at home. The margins are nearly identical, so both records sit about where the scoring says. This is a matchup of two slumping teams, and the Raiders' road split is the one edge either side brings in.
STREAK
LV has lost 4 straight
L4LV carries a 4-game losing streak into this one, sitting at 3-4 on the season. They face NYJ in LV @ NYJ. Current-2026 standings through 2026-10-31.
TEAM RECORD
LV is 2-1 on the road; NYJ is 1-2 at home
2-1The site split favours LV: NYJ has played 3 games at home this season and LV 3 games away from it. Current-2026 standings through 2026-10-31.
AFTER GARY
LV +112 → +110
GARY +0.45PPGary's number was 112; the market closed at 110.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 29, 2026 at 4:20 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, caesars, draftkings, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKKIRK COUSINSPASSING YARDS OVER 231.5
The Raiders cannot run the ball, and they have stopped pretending otherwise. Over the last three weeks they've rushed for 48, 65 and 38 yards. The backs are getting stuffed before contact almost every carry, so this offense lives through Cousins whether the game script asks for it or not. He has thrown at least 41 times in three of his last four games, and the volume is steady because the defense keeps putting him in catch-up spots.
Now look at what the Jets are walking out with up front. Joseph Ossai is out, T'Vondre Sweat went to injured reserve, and David Bailey is doubtful after missing every practice this week. Bailey is their best pass rusher by a distance. He had three sacks against Cleveland and generates most of their pressure off the edge. Nate Lynn is next up, a guy who was on the practice squad a month ago. Take Bailey away and the Jets lose the main thing that has kept opposing passing numbers modest.
Cousins has Bowers drawing double digit targets, Tucker stretching the field and Jeanty catching everything underneath. The weather is clear and calm, and the spread says this is a coin flip game that should stay competitive into the fourth quarter. I'll take the veteran clearing a number he's been living above all season against a pass rush missing its best player.
- GARY'S PICKBROCK BOWERSRECEIVING YARDS OVER 68.5
Bowers has cleared this number in every game he's played since returning, and his worst outing still landed at 70. The target load explains it: between 8 and 14 looks every week, with Cousins treating him as the first read on third down and in the red zone. When an offense can't run, its tight end becomes the run game, and that's exactly what he's become in Las Vegas.
The Jets' second level is getting thinner by the week. Kiko Mauigoa is on injured reserve, Bailey is doubtful, and Demario Davis and Jamien Sherwood have been carrying heavy coverage duty in the middle of the field. Sherwood got picked apart by Detroit's tight ends and backs, and the Jets gave up 86 yards to Miami's tight ends just last week. With the edge rush compromised, Cousins should have time to let Bowers work the seams and the intermediate crossers where he does his damage after the catch.
The calf showed up on the report, but he was full on Thursday and Saturday with no designation, so I'm not worried about his snap count. I'd rather pay the standard price on the yardage than lay the heavy juice on his catch total. Volume, a soft middle of the field and a quarterback who keeps leaning on him.
Every prop from this day is on the archive page.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.
Get Gary on the App StoreEvery NFL game this dayThe NFL recordToday's NFL picksEvery sport this day