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NFL · Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM

New York Jets at Detroit Lions

O/U 55.5 · SPREAD Detroit Lions -6.5 · Ford Field

GARY'S PICK
Jets +6.5
NFL@ Lions· -105

Jets
+6.5

-105 · LOST · NYJ 24 · DET 31

Lions

The pick & result

Published pick
New York Jets +6.5 -105
Published odds
-105
Result
Lost
Final score
24-31

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 46 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 21 6:00 AM
Close
Sep 27 12:54 PM
Move
SPREADDetroit Lions -6.5 (-112)Detroit Lions -7 (+100)+½
TOTAL48 (-108)49.5 (-110)+1½
MONEYLINEDetroit Lions -325Detroit Lions -325Holds
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 21 6:00 AMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-112)48 (-108)Detroit Lions -325 · New York Jets +270
Sep 21 8:30 AMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-112)48 (-108)Detroit Lions -325 · New York Jets +260
Sep 21 9:31 AMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-115)48 (-108)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250
Sep 21 11:31 AMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-112)48 (-110)Detroit Lions -325 · New York Jets +260
Sep 21 12:01 PMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-115)48 (-108)Detroit Lions -325 · New York Jets +260
Sep 21 1:02 PMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-115)48 (-108)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +260
Sep 21 5:15 PMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-112)48 (-108)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250
Sep 21 6:36 PMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-112)48 (-108)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +260
Sep 22 6:30 AMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-112)48 (-110)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250
Sep 22 8:30 AMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-115)48 (-110)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250
Sep 22 11:32 AMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-115)48 (-108)Detroit Lions -325 · New York Jets +260
Sep 22 5:57 PMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-115)47.5 (-112)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250
Sep 22 6:57 PMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-115)48 (-110)Detroit Lions -325 · New York Jets +260
Sep 22 8:58 PMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-115)47.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250
Sep 23 12:58 AMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-115)48 (-108)Detroit Lions -325 · New York Jets +260
Sep 23 6:00 AMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-115)48 (-108)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250
Sep 23 9:49 AMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-115)47.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250
Sep 23 4:06 PMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-115)47.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +240
Sep 23 5:06 PMDetroit Lions -7 (-105)47.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250
Sep 24 9:00 AMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-112)47.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250
Sep 24 12:22 PMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-112)47.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +240
Sep 24 1:22 PMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-115)47.5 (-112)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +240
Sep 24 2:53 PMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-112)48 (-108)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250
Sep 24 3:53 PMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-115)47.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +240
Sep 24 4:23 PMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-112)47.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +240
Sep 24 4:53 PMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-112)47.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250
Sep 24 8:47 PMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-112)47.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +240
Sep 25 6:00 AMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-112)47.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250
Sep 25 10:31 AMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-112)48 (-108)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +240
Sep 25 1:01 PMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-112)48 (-108)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250
Sep 25 4:54 PMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-112)48 (-108)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250
Sep 25 8:05 PMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-112)48 (-108)Detroit Lions -295 · New York Jets +240
Sep 26 1:32 PMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-112)48 (-108)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +240
Sep 26 7:34 PMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-115)48 (-110)Detroit Lions -295 · New York Jets +240
Sep 26 9:05 PMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-112)48 (-112)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250
Sep 26 9:35 PMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-118)48 (-110)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250
Sep 26 10:43 PMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-115)48 (-110)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250
Sep 27 8:00 AMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-112)48 (-112)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250
Sep 27 8:30 AMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-115)48.5 (-108)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250
Sep 27 9:00 AMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-115)48.5 (-108)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250
Sep 27 9:31 AMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-115)48.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250
Sep 27 10:10 AMDetroit Lions -6.5 (-110)48.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250
Sep 27 12:14 PMDetroit Lions -7 (-102)49 (-110)Detroit Lions -325 · New York Jets +260
Sep 27 12:24 PMDetroit Lions -7 (-105)49.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -325 · New York Jets +260
Sep 27 12:34 PMDetroit Lions -7 (+100)49.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -325 · New York Jets +260
Sep 27 12:44 PMDetroit Lions -7 (+100)50 (-110)Detroit Lions -325 · New York Jets +260
CLOSESep 27 12:54 PMDetroit Lions -7 (+100)49.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -325 · New York Jets +260

The read

I’ll take the points. The Jets have allowed 3.98 yards per play and held opponents to a 23.8% third-down conversion rate through two games.

That gives them a way to slow Detroit’s offense, while their possession-focused attack faces a Lions defense allowing 147 rushing yards per game and a 58.6% third-down conversion rate. Goff has thrown six touchdowns, Detroit has extra rest, and the Jets’ defensive sample is small; those are serious reasons to fear a comfortable Lions win.

At 6.5, though, I trust New York to sustain enough drives and make Detroit earn a margin of more than one score.

Injuries noted

New York Jets: Tyler Baron (PUP-R) — The Jets moved Baron (knee) to the reserve/PUP list Sunday, Eric Allen and Amanda Vogt of the team's official site report.; Kingsley Jonathan (IR) — ir; VJ Payne (IR-R) — ir; Tre Brown (IR) — Brown (undisclosed) was placed on the Jets' injured reserve Sunday, Amanda Vogt and Eric Allen of the team's official site report.; Anez Cooper (IR-R) — The Jets placed Cooper (shoulder) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Al Iannazzone of Newsday reports.; Joseph Ossai (Questionable) — Ossai (foot) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Lions, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reports.; Chip Trayanum (IR) — Trayanum (neck) was placed on injured reserve by the Jets on Sunday, Eric Allen & Amanda Vogt of the team's official website report.; Tim Patrick (IR) — The Jets placed Patrick (groin) on injured reserve Saturday, Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic reports.; Kene Nwangwu (Out) — Nwangwu (back) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Lions.; Omar Cooper Jr. (IR) — The Jets are expected to place Cooper (ankle) on injured reserve, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.; Minkah Fitzpatrick (Out) — Fitzpatrick (groin) won't play in Sunday's game versus Detroit, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reports.; Marcelino McCrary-Ball (IR) — ir; David Onyemata (IR) — Onyemata (groin) underwent core-muscle surgery Wednesday, Antwan V. Staley of the New York Daily News reports.; Mason Taylor (Out) — Taylor (thumb) has been ruled out for Sunday's game at Detroit.; Arian Smith (IR) — Smith (knee) underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a torn ACL and will miss the rest of the season, Antwan V. Staley of the New York Daily News reports.; David Bailey (Questionable) — questionable; Adonai Mitchell (Questionable) — Mitchell (finger) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Detroit.

Detroit Lions: Giovanni Manu (NFI-R) — The Lions moved Manu (knee) to the reserve/non-football injury list Sunday.; Brian Branch (PUP-R) — The Lions placed Branch (Achilles) on the reserve/PUP list Sunday, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.; Kerby Joseph (PUP-R) — The Lions placed Joseph (knee) on the reserve/PUP list Sunday, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.; Kendrick Law (IR) — Knee - ACL; Cade Mays (IR-R) — Mays (wrist) is looking to return from injured reserve by mid-October, Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press reports.; Isiah Pacheco (IR) — Pacheco (back) underwent surgery Monday and is expected to be out for a significant amount of time, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports.; Payton Turner (IR) — ir; Damone Clark (IR) — Detroit placed Clark (undisclosed) on its injured reserve list Tuesday.; Ahmed Hassanein (Questionable) — questionable; Christian Mahogany (Questionable) — Mahogany (hip) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice.; Blake Miller (Questionable) — Miller (knee) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice.; Avonte Maddox (IR) — The Lions placed Maddox (foot) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Ben Bartch (Out) — Bartch (foot) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets, Tim Twentyman of the Lions' official site reports.; Thomas Harper (IR) — The Lions placed Harper (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday.; Tate Ratledge (Questionable) — Ratledge (elbow) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Geno Smith is the projected starting quarterback for NYJ

    7.11 Y/A

    Through 2 games in 2026, Geno Smith threw for 462 passing yards, completed 70.8% of his passes and averaged 7.11 yards per attempt. Last season over 15 games he threw for 3025 yards, completed 67.4% and averaged 6.75 yards per attempt, 19-17 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

  • Jared Goff is the projected starting quarterback for DET

    6.92 Y/A

    Through 2 games in 2026, Jared Goff threw for 533 passing yards, completed 67.5% of his passes and averaged 6.92 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4564 yards, completed 68% and averaged 7.9 yards per attempt, 34-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

TRENCHES

  • NYJ: 65.5 rushing yards allowed per game to DET's 147

    81.5 YPG

    The Jets have allowed little on the ground through 2 games, while Detroit has allowed more rushing production. The sample is only 2 games and lacks opponent or game-script context, so it does not settle either run defense. In this matchup, the gap is useful for sizing the value of rushing volume versus a passing-heavy game.

  • DET: 4.15 yards per rush attempt to NYJ's 3.2

    0.95 Y/C

    NYJ is at 3.2 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; DET is at 4.15 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season NYJ was at 4.53 over 17 games and DET at 4.52 over 17 games.

PASS RUSH

  • NYJ: 14.5 sack yards lost per game to DET's 20

    5.5 YDS

    NYJ is at 14.5 sack yards lost per game over 2 games; DET is at 20 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season NYJ was at 24.9 over 17 games and DET at 20.3 over 17 games.

  • DET: 3.5 sacks recorded per game to NYJ's 3

    0.5 SACKS

    NYJ is at 3 sacks recorded per game over 2 games; DET is at 3.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.

  • NYJ: 2 sacks taken per game to DET's 2.5

    0.5 SACKS

    NYJ is at 2 sacks taken per game over 2 games; DET is at 2.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season NYJ was at 3.75 over 17 games and DET at 3 over 17 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • NYJ: 15 points allowed per game to DET's 35.5

    20.5 PPG

    The Jets have allowed far less scoring through 2 games, a sharp change from 29.6 points allowed per game last season. Detroit has allowed 35.5, above its 24.3 last-season figure, so the matchup pits New York's early defensive control against a defense allowing points. If the Jets sustain that resistance, Detroit may have to win with fewer easy scoring possessions.

  • DET: 31 points per game to NYJ's 20

    11 PPG

    Detroit has produced points at a higher level through 2 games, while the Jets are above their 17.6 from last season but still well behind Detroit. Detroit is also above its 28.3 from last season. The scoring gap gives Detroit the stronger early offensive profile, though 2 games is a short base for judging a total or game script.

  • NYJ: 38:13 time of possession per game to DET's 31:33

    6:40 TOP

    NYJ is at 38:13 time of possession per game over 2 games; DET is at 31:33 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season NYJ was at 28:15 over 17 games and DET at 30:33 over 17 games.

  • NYJ @ DET carries a 48.5 market total

    48.5

    Five points above the slate median, this number expects NYJ at DET to generate more combined scoring than a typical game on this slate. The market is pricing a favorable scoring environment from the matchup, and bettors can watch for game-specific information that either supports or disrupts that expectation.

TURNOVERS

  • DET: 1.5 takeaways per game to NYJ's 1

    0.5 TO

    NYJ is at 1 takeaways per game over 2 games; DET is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.

  • NYJ: 0 turnovers committed per game to DET's 0.5

    0.5 TO

    NYJ is at 0 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; DET is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season NYJ was at 1.35 over 17 games and DET at 0.88 over 17 games.

  • NYJ: 0 fumbles lost per game to DET's 0.5

    0.5 FUM

    NYJ is at 0 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; DET is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season NYJ was at 0.59 over 17 games and DET at 0.41 over 17 games.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • DET: 5.4 yards per play to NYJ's 4.9

    0.5 Y/P

    Detroit has the better early per-play offense and backed it with five plays of 20-plus yards last game, several involving Goff and St. Brown. The Lions remain below their 17-game level from last season, while the Jets have improved from theirs through two games. New York's two explosive plays show some upside, but Detroit has created more chunk production and a higher early efficiency.

RED ZONE

  • NYJ: 60% red-zone scoring allowed to DET's 90%

    30 PP

    NYJ is at 60% red-zone scoring allowed over 2 games; DET is at 90% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.

  • DET: 4.5 red-zone trips per game to NYJ's 3

    1.5 TRIPS

    NYJ is at 3 red-zone trips per game over 2 games; DET is at 4.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season NYJ was at 2.24 over 17 games and DET at 3.76 over 17 games.

  • DET: 77.8% red-zone scoring rate to NYJ's 66.7%

    11.1 PP

    NYJ is at 66.7% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; DET is at 77.8% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season NYJ was at 44.7% over 17 games and DET at 62.5% over 17 games.

MISMATCH

  • NYJ: 15 points allowed a game to DET's 35.5

    15 VS 35.5

    The Jets have allowed 15 points a game over 2 games, while Detroit has allowed 35.5. New York is well below its 29.6 points allowed last season, but Detroit has risen from 24.3, making both numbers early-sample moves. Detroit needs to keep this from becoming a game where the Jets can play from ahead, because New York's early defensive edge gives it more room to control pace.

COVERAGE

  • NYJ: 4 yards per play allowed to DET's 6

    2 Y/P

    The Jets have held opponents to fewer yards per play through 2 games than Detroit. Yards per play captures overall efficiency, though 2 games and no opponent context leave plenty of room for the numbers to move. For this matchup, use the split as a check on whether either offense can sustain efficient drives.

  • NYJ: 23.8% third downs allowed to DET's 58.6%

    34.8 PP

    NYJ is at 23.8% third downs allowed over 2 games; DET is at 58.6% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.

  • NYJ: 131.5 passing yards allowed per game to DET's 310.5

    179 YPG

    The Jets have kept passing production low through 2 games, while Detroit has allowed much more through the air. That is only 2 games, and no opposing pass-game context explains whether either number reflects the defenses or the schedules. For this matchup, the split matters most when judging how much passing volume each side may need.

REPLACEMENT

  • Arian Smith (WR) is on injured reserve for NYJ

    IR

    Smith is on injured reserve after surgery Wednesday to repair a torn ACL. He will miss the rest of the season, removing him from the Jets' receiver group for Detroit and every later game. The report gives no named replacement for his work.

  • Isiah Pacheco (RB) is on injured reserve for DET

    IR

    Pacheco is on injured reserve after back surgery Monday and is expected to miss a significant amount of time. Detroit is without its running back against the Jets, and the absence extends beyond this one matchup.

  • Omar Cooper Jr. (WR) is on injured reserve for NYJ

    IR

    Cooper is expected to go on injured reserve with an ankle injury. If the Jets make the move, he will be unavailable at Detroit and New York will be without a wide receiver for this game.

  • Avonte Maddox (CB) is on injured reserve for DET

    IR

    Maddox is on injured reserve with a foot injury after Detroit placed him there Tuesday. He is unavailable against the Jets, leaving the Lions without a cornerback for this game.

  • Thomas Harper (S) is on injured reserve for DET

    IR

    Harper is on injured reserve with an ankle injury after Detroit placed him there Saturday. He is unavailable for the Jets game, and the fact sheet names no replacement in the Lions secondary.

  • David Onyemata (DT) is on injured reserve for NYJ

    IR

    Onyemata is on injured reserve after core-muscle surgery Wednesday. He is unavailable at Detroit, taking a Jets defensive tackle out of the lineup for this game.

  • Marcelino McCrary-Ball (LB) is on injured reserve for NYJ

    IR

    NYJ lists Marcelino McCrary-Ball as on injured reserve on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Mason Taylor

    Out

    Thumb · Did not practice · Out

  • Minkah Fitzpatrick

    Out

    Groin · Did not practice · Out

  • Kiko Mauigoa

    Out

    Quadricep · Did not practice · Out

  • Ben Bartch

    Out

    Foot · Did not practice · Out

  • Kene Nwangwu

    Doubtful

    Back · Did not practice · Doubtful

  • Adonai Mitchell

    Questionable

    Finger · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Joseph Ossai

    Questionable

    Foot · Full practice · Questionable

  • Will McDonald IV

    LP

    Limited practice

  • D.J. Reed

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Juice Scruggs

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jarvis Brownlee Jr.

    FP

    Full practice

  • D'Angelo Ponds

    FP

    Full practice

  • Blake Miller

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jamien Sherwood

    FP

    Full practice

  • Christian Mahogany

    FP

    Full practice

  • Alim McNeill

    FP

    Full practice

  • David Bailey

    FP

    Full practice

  • Christian Izien

    FP

    Full practice

  • Ahmed Hassanein

    FP

    Coach's Decision · Full practice

  • Tate Ratledge

    FP

    Full practice

  • Hogan Hatten

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • DET has 3 more days of rest

    7d vs 10d

    Detroit has three more days between games, coming off 10 days and a bye while the Jets are on the usual seven-day schedule. The Lions have extra recovery and prep time at home, while New York has to handle a standard road-week turnaround. That gap matters most if either side is carrying fatigue or needs time to adjust its plan.

  • NYJ (1-1) at DET (1-1)

    -19 PT GAP

    Both teams are 1-1 and enter off a loss, but the Jets are +10 on the year while Detroit is -9. New York won its only road game and Detroit won its only home game, leaving competing one-game venue signals. The point margins lean Jets, while Detroit's home result makes this a spot where the overall record alone leaves out useful context.

  • NYJ: 6.9 yards per pass attempt to DET's 6

    0.9 Y/A

    NYJ is at 6.9 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; DET is at 6 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season NYJ was at 4.28 over 17 games and DET at 7.09 over 17 games.

AFTER GARY

  • NYJ +6.5 → +6.5

    NOW +1.22PP

    Gary's number was 6.5; the market closed at 6.5.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 24, 2026 at 4:27 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    JARED GOFFPASSING YARDS UNDER 258.5
    NFLDetroit Lions· -113

    Jared Goff
    Passing Yards under 258.5

    -113 · LOST · ACTUAL 269

    Detroit Lions

    I’ll take under 258.5 passing yards at -113. The Jets have allowed 285 passing yards combined in two games, and their possession-focused offense can limit Goff’s chances to throw. This is a small defensive sample against a quarterback who threw for 327 yards last week and has averaged 293.3 across his last ten games from 2025. Detroit has enough receiving talent to beat this line even if New York plays well.

  • GARY'S PICK
    GENO SMITHPASSING COMPLETIONS OVER 21.5
    NFLNew York Jets· -103

    Geno Smith
    Passing Completions over 21.5

    -103 · CASHED · ACTUAL 31

    New York Jets

    I’ll take over 21.5 completions at -103. Detroit has allowed 658 passing yards in two games, and its trouble ending drives gives Geno room to build a completion count.

    He completed 27 passes against Green Bay while the Jets controlled possession. The strongest concern is volume: New York wants to run, and Geno finished with only 19 completions against Tennessee.

    Aidan Hutchinson’s pass rush could also shorten drives before Geno reaches 22.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

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