New York Jets at Detroit Lions
O/U 55.5 · SPREAD Detroit Lions -6.5 · Ford Field
The pick & result
- Published pick
- New York Jets +6.5 -105
- Published odds
- -105
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 24-31
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 46 moves| Market | Opened Sep 21 6:00 AM | Close Sep 27 12:54 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-112) | Detroit Lions -7 (+100) | +½ |
| TOTAL | 48 (-108) | 49.5 (-110) | +1½ |
| MONEYLINE | Detroit Lions -325 | Detroit Lions -325 | Holds |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 21 6:00 AM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-112) | 48 (-108) | Detroit Lions -325 · New York Jets +270 |
| Sep 21 8:30 AM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-112) | 48 (-108) | Detroit Lions -325 · New York Jets +260 |
| Sep 21 9:31 AM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-115) | 48 (-108) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250 |
| Sep 21 11:31 AM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-112) | 48 (-110) | Detroit Lions -325 · New York Jets +260 |
| Sep 21 12:01 PM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-115) | 48 (-108) | Detroit Lions -325 · New York Jets +260 |
| Sep 21 1:02 PM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-115) | 48 (-108) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +260 |
| Sep 21 5:15 PM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-112) | 48 (-108) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250 |
| Sep 21 6:36 PM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-112) | 48 (-108) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +260 |
| Sep 22 6:30 AM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-112) | 48 (-110) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250 |
| Sep 22 8:30 AM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-115) | 48 (-110) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250 |
| Sep 22 11:32 AM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-115) | 48 (-108) | Detroit Lions -325 · New York Jets +260 |
| Sep 22 5:57 PM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-115) | 47.5 (-112) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250 |
| Sep 22 6:57 PM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-115) | 48 (-110) | Detroit Lions -325 · New York Jets +260 |
| Sep 22 8:58 PM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-115) | 47.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250 |
| Sep 23 12:58 AM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-115) | 48 (-108) | Detroit Lions -325 · New York Jets +260 |
| Sep 23 6:00 AM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-115) | 48 (-108) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250 |
| Sep 23 9:49 AM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-115) | 47.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250 |
| Sep 23 4:06 PM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-115) | 47.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +240 |
| Sep 23 5:06 PM | Detroit Lions -7 (-105) | 47.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250 |
| Sep 24 9:00 AM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-112) | 47.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250 |
| Sep 24 12:22 PM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-112) | 47.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +240 |
| Sep 24 1:22 PM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-115) | 47.5 (-112) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +240 |
| Sep 24 2:53 PM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-112) | 48 (-108) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250 |
| Sep 24 3:53 PM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-115) | 47.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +240 |
| Sep 24 4:23 PM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-112) | 47.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +240 |
| Sep 24 4:53 PM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-112) | 47.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250 |
| Sep 24 8:47 PM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-112) | 47.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +240 |
| Sep 25 6:00 AM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-112) | 47.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250 |
| Sep 25 10:31 AM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-112) | 48 (-108) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +240 |
| Sep 25 1:01 PM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-112) | 48 (-108) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250 |
| Sep 25 4:54 PM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-112) | 48 (-108) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250 |
| Sep 25 8:05 PM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-112) | 48 (-108) | Detroit Lions -295 · New York Jets +240 |
| Sep 26 1:32 PM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-112) | 48 (-108) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +240 |
| Sep 26 7:34 PM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-115) | 48 (-110) | Detroit Lions -295 · New York Jets +240 |
| Sep 26 9:05 PM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-112) | 48 (-112) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250 |
| Sep 26 9:35 PM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-118) | 48 (-110) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250 |
| Sep 26 10:43 PM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-115) | 48 (-110) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250 |
| Sep 27 8:00 AM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-112) | 48 (-112) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250 |
| Sep 27 8:30 AM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-115) | 48.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250 |
| Sep 27 9:00 AM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-115) | 48.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250 |
| Sep 27 9:31 AM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-115) | 48.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250 |
| Sep 27 10:10 AM | Detroit Lions -6.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -300 · New York Jets +250 |
| Sep 27 12:14 PM | Detroit Lions -7 (-102) | 49 (-110) | Detroit Lions -325 · New York Jets +260 |
| Sep 27 12:24 PM | Detroit Lions -7 (-105) | 49.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -325 · New York Jets +260 |
| Sep 27 12:34 PM | Detroit Lions -7 (+100) | 49.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -325 · New York Jets +260 |
| Sep 27 12:44 PM | Detroit Lions -7 (+100) | 50 (-110) | Detroit Lions -325 · New York Jets +260 |
| CLOSESep 27 12:54 PM | Detroit Lions -7 (+100) | 49.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -325 · New York Jets +260 |
The read
I’ll take the points. The Jets have allowed 3.98 yards per play and held opponents to a 23.8% third-down conversion rate through two games.
That gives them a way to slow Detroit’s offense, while their possession-focused attack faces a Lions defense allowing 147 rushing yards per game and a 58.6% third-down conversion rate. Goff has thrown six touchdowns, Detroit has extra rest, and the Jets’ defensive sample is small; those are serious reasons to fear a comfortable Lions win.
At 6.5, though, I trust New York to sustain enough drives and make Detroit earn a margin of more than one score.
Injuries noted
New York Jets: Tyler Baron (PUP-R) — The Jets moved Baron (knee) to the reserve/PUP list Sunday, Eric Allen and Amanda Vogt of the team's official site report.; Kingsley Jonathan (IR) — ir; VJ Payne (IR-R) — ir; Tre Brown (IR) — Brown (undisclosed) was placed on the Jets' injured reserve Sunday, Amanda Vogt and Eric Allen of the team's official site report.; Anez Cooper (IR-R) — The Jets placed Cooper (shoulder) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Al Iannazzone of Newsday reports.; Joseph Ossai (Questionable) — Ossai (foot) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Lions, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reports.; Chip Trayanum (IR) — Trayanum (neck) was placed on injured reserve by the Jets on Sunday, Eric Allen & Amanda Vogt of the team's official website report.; Tim Patrick (IR) — The Jets placed Patrick (groin) on injured reserve Saturday, Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic reports.; Kene Nwangwu (Out) — Nwangwu (back) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Lions.; Omar Cooper Jr. (IR) — The Jets are expected to place Cooper (ankle) on injured reserve, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.; Minkah Fitzpatrick (Out) — Fitzpatrick (groin) won't play in Sunday's game versus Detroit, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reports.; Marcelino McCrary-Ball (IR) — ir; David Onyemata (IR) — Onyemata (groin) underwent core-muscle surgery Wednesday, Antwan V. Staley of the New York Daily News reports.; Mason Taylor (Out) — Taylor (thumb) has been ruled out for Sunday's game at Detroit.; Arian Smith (IR) — Smith (knee) underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a torn ACL and will miss the rest of the season, Antwan V. Staley of the New York Daily News reports.; David Bailey (Questionable) — questionable; Adonai Mitchell (Questionable) — Mitchell (finger) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Detroit.
Detroit Lions: Giovanni Manu (NFI-R) — The Lions moved Manu (knee) to the reserve/non-football injury list Sunday.; Brian Branch (PUP-R) — The Lions placed Branch (Achilles) on the reserve/PUP list Sunday, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.; Kerby Joseph (PUP-R) — The Lions placed Joseph (knee) on the reserve/PUP list Sunday, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.; Kendrick Law (IR) — Knee - ACL; Cade Mays (IR-R) — Mays (wrist) is looking to return from injured reserve by mid-October, Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press reports.; Isiah Pacheco (IR) — Pacheco (back) underwent surgery Monday and is expected to be out for a significant amount of time, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports.; Payton Turner (IR) — ir; Damone Clark (IR) — Detroit placed Clark (undisclosed) on its injured reserve list Tuesday.; Ahmed Hassanein (Questionable) — questionable; Christian Mahogany (Questionable) — Mahogany (hip) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice.; Blake Miller (Questionable) — Miller (knee) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice.; Avonte Maddox (IR) — The Lions placed Maddox (foot) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Ben Bartch (Out) — Bartch (foot) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets, Tim Twentyman of the Lions' official site reports.; Thomas Harper (IR) — The Lions placed Harper (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday.; Tate Ratledge (Questionable) — Ratledge (elbow) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Geno Smith is the projected starting quarterback for NYJ
7.11 Y/AThrough 2 games in 2026, Geno Smith threw for 462 passing yards, completed 70.8% of his passes and averaged 7.11 yards per attempt. Last season over 15 games he threw for 3025 yards, completed 67.4% and averaged 6.75 yards per attempt, 19-17 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
Jared Goff is the projected starting quarterback for DET
6.92 Y/AThrough 2 games in 2026, Jared Goff threw for 533 passing yards, completed 67.5% of his passes and averaged 6.92 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4564 yards, completed 68% and averaged 7.9 yards per attempt, 34-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
TRENCHES
NYJ: 65.5 rushing yards allowed per game to DET's 147
81.5 YPGThe Jets have allowed little on the ground through 2 games, while Detroit has allowed more rushing production. The sample is only 2 games and lacks opponent or game-script context, so it does not settle either run defense. In this matchup, the gap is useful for sizing the value of rushing volume versus a passing-heavy game.
DET: 4.15 yards per rush attempt to NYJ's 3.2
0.95 Y/CNYJ is at 3.2 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; DET is at 4.15 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season NYJ was at 4.53 over 17 games and DET at 4.52 over 17 games.
PASS RUSH
NYJ: 14.5 sack yards lost per game to DET's 20
5.5 YDSNYJ is at 14.5 sack yards lost per game over 2 games; DET is at 20 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season NYJ was at 24.9 over 17 games and DET at 20.3 over 17 games.
DET: 3.5 sacks recorded per game to NYJ's 3
0.5 SACKSNYJ is at 3 sacks recorded per game over 2 games; DET is at 3.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.
NYJ: 2 sacks taken per game to DET's 2.5
0.5 SACKSNYJ is at 2 sacks taken per game over 2 games; DET is at 2.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season NYJ was at 3.75 over 17 games and DET at 3 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPT
NYJ: 15 points allowed per game to DET's 35.5
20.5 PPGThe Jets have allowed far less scoring through 2 games, a sharp change from 29.6 points allowed per game last season. Detroit has allowed 35.5, above its 24.3 last-season figure, so the matchup pits New York's early defensive control against a defense allowing points. If the Jets sustain that resistance, Detroit may have to win with fewer easy scoring possessions.
DET: 31 points per game to NYJ's 20
11 PPGDetroit has produced points at a higher level through 2 games, while the Jets are above their 17.6 from last season but still well behind Detroit. Detroit is also above its 28.3 from last season. The scoring gap gives Detroit the stronger early offensive profile, though 2 games is a short base for judging a total or game script.
NYJ: 38:13 time of possession per game to DET's 31:33
6:40 TOPNYJ is at 38:13 time of possession per game over 2 games; DET is at 31:33 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season NYJ was at 28:15 over 17 games and DET at 30:33 over 17 games.
NYJ @ DET carries a 48.5 market total
48.5Five points above the slate median, this number expects NYJ at DET to generate more combined scoring than a typical game on this slate. The market is pricing a favorable scoring environment from the matchup, and bettors can watch for game-specific information that either supports or disrupts that expectation.
TURNOVERS
DET: 1.5 takeaways per game to NYJ's 1
0.5 TONYJ is at 1 takeaways per game over 2 games; DET is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.
NYJ: 0 turnovers committed per game to DET's 0.5
0.5 TONYJ is at 0 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; DET is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season NYJ was at 1.35 over 17 games and DET at 0.88 over 17 games.
NYJ: 0 fumbles lost per game to DET's 0.5
0.5 FUMNYJ is at 0 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; DET is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season NYJ was at 0.59 over 17 games and DET at 0.41 over 17 games.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYS
DET: 5.4 yards per play to NYJ's 4.9
0.5 Y/PDetroit has the better early per-play offense and backed it with five plays of 20-plus yards last game, several involving Goff and St. Brown. The Lions remain below their 17-game level from last season, while the Jets have improved from theirs through two games. New York's two explosive plays show some upside, but Detroit has created more chunk production and a higher early efficiency.
RED ZONE
NYJ: 60% red-zone scoring allowed to DET's 90%
30 PPNYJ is at 60% red-zone scoring allowed over 2 games; DET is at 90% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.
DET: 4.5 red-zone trips per game to NYJ's 3
1.5 TRIPSNYJ is at 3 red-zone trips per game over 2 games; DET is at 4.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season NYJ was at 2.24 over 17 games and DET at 3.76 over 17 games.
DET: 77.8% red-zone scoring rate to NYJ's 66.7%
11.1 PPNYJ is at 66.7% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; DET is at 77.8% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season NYJ was at 44.7% over 17 games and DET at 62.5% over 17 games.
MISMATCH
NYJ: 15 points allowed a game to DET's 35.5
15 VS 35.5The Jets have allowed 15 points a game over 2 games, while Detroit has allowed 35.5. New York is well below its 29.6 points allowed last season, but Detroit has risen from 24.3, making both numbers early-sample moves. Detroit needs to keep this from becoming a game where the Jets can play from ahead, because New York's early defensive edge gives it more room to control pace.
COVERAGE
NYJ: 4 yards per play allowed to DET's 6
2 Y/PThe Jets have held opponents to fewer yards per play through 2 games than Detroit. Yards per play captures overall efficiency, though 2 games and no opponent context leave plenty of room for the numbers to move. For this matchup, use the split as a check on whether either offense can sustain efficient drives.
NYJ: 23.8% third downs allowed to DET's 58.6%
34.8 PPNYJ is at 23.8% third downs allowed over 2 games; DET is at 58.6% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.
NYJ: 131.5 passing yards allowed per game to DET's 310.5
179 YPGThe Jets have kept passing production low through 2 games, while Detroit has allowed much more through the air. That is only 2 games, and no opposing pass-game context explains whether either number reflects the defenses or the schedules. For this matchup, the split matters most when judging how much passing volume each side may need.
REPLACEMENT
Arian Smith (WR) is on injured reserve for NYJ
IRSmith is on injured reserve after surgery Wednesday to repair a torn ACL. He will miss the rest of the season, removing him from the Jets' receiver group for Detroit and every later game. The report gives no named replacement for his work.
Isiah Pacheco (RB) is on injured reserve for DET
IRPacheco is on injured reserve after back surgery Monday and is expected to miss a significant amount of time. Detroit is without its running back against the Jets, and the absence extends beyond this one matchup.
Omar Cooper Jr. (WR) is on injured reserve for NYJ
IRCooper is expected to go on injured reserve with an ankle injury. If the Jets make the move, he will be unavailable at Detroit and New York will be without a wide receiver for this game.
Avonte Maddox (CB) is on injured reserve for DET
IRMaddox is on injured reserve with a foot injury after Detroit placed him there Tuesday. He is unavailable against the Jets, leaving the Lions without a cornerback for this game.
Thomas Harper (S) is on injured reserve for DET
IRHarper is on injured reserve with an ankle injury after Detroit placed him there Saturday. He is unavailable for the Jets game, and the fact sheet names no replacement in the Lions secondary.
David Onyemata (DT) is on injured reserve for NYJ
IROnyemata is on injured reserve after core-muscle surgery Wednesday. He is unavailable at Detroit, taking a Jets defensive tackle out of the lineup for this game.
Marcelino McCrary-Ball (LB) is on injured reserve for NYJ
IRNYJ lists Marcelino McCrary-Ball as on injured reserve on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
PRACTICE REPORT
Mason Taylor
OutThumb · Did not practice · Out
Minkah Fitzpatrick
OutGroin · Did not practice · Out
Kiko Mauigoa
OutQuadricep · Did not practice · Out
Ben Bartch
OutFoot · Did not practice · Out
Kene Nwangwu
DoubtfulBack · Did not practice · Doubtful
Adonai Mitchell
QuestionableFinger · Limited practice · Questionable
Joseph Ossai
QuestionableFoot · Full practice · Questionable
Will McDonald IV
LPLimited practice
D.J. Reed
LPLimited practice
Juice Scruggs
FPFull practice
Jarvis Brownlee Jr.
FPFull practice
D'Angelo Ponds
FPFull practice
Blake Miller
FPFull practice
Jamien Sherwood
FPFull practice
Christian Mahogany
FPFull practice
Alim McNeill
FPFull practice
David Bailey
FPFull practice
Christian Izien
FPFull practice
Ahmed Hassanein
FPCoach's Decision · Full practice
Tate Ratledge
FPFull practice
Hogan Hatten
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
DET has 3 more days of rest
7d vs 10dDetroit has three more days between games, coming off 10 days and a bye while the Jets are on the usual seven-day schedule. The Lions have extra recovery and prep time at home, while New York has to handle a standard road-week turnaround. That gap matters most if either side is carrying fatigue or needs time to adjust its plan.
NYJ (1-1) at DET (1-1)
-19 PT GAPBoth teams are 1-1 and enter off a loss, but the Jets are +10 on the year while Detroit is -9. New York won its only road game and Detroit won its only home game, leaving competing one-game venue signals. The point margins lean Jets, while Detroit's home result makes this a spot where the overall record alone leaves out useful context.
NYJ: 6.9 yards per pass attempt to DET's 6
0.9 Y/ANYJ is at 6.9 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; DET is at 6 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season NYJ was at 4.28 over 17 games and DET at 7.09 over 17 games.
AFTER GARY
NYJ +6.5 → +6.5
NOW +1.22PPGary's number was 6.5; the market closed at 6.5.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 24, 2026 at 4:27 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKJARED GOFFPASSING YARDS UNDER 258.5
I’ll take under 258.5 passing yards at -113. The Jets have allowed 285 passing yards combined in two games, and their possession-focused offense can limit Goff’s chances to throw. This is a small defensive sample against a quarterback who threw for 327 yards last week and has averaged 293.3 across his last ten games from 2025. Detroit has enough receiving talent to beat this line even if New York plays well.
- GARY'S PICKGENO SMITHPASSING COMPLETIONS OVER 21.5
I’ll take over 21.5 completions at -103. Detroit has allowed 658 passing yards in two games, and its trouble ending drives gives Geno room to build a completion count.
He completed 27 passes against Green Bay while the Jets controlled possession. The strongest concern is volume: New York wants to run, and Geno finished with only 19 completions against Tennessee.
Aidan Hutchinson’s pass rush could also shorten drives before Geno reaches 22.
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