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NFL · Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM

New York Jets at New England Patriots

O/U 42.5 · SPREAD New England Patriots -7.5 · Gillette Stadium

GARY'S PICK
Jets +7.5
NFL@ Patriots· -120

Jets
+7.5

-120 · CASHED · NYJ 19 · NE 26

Patriots

The pick & result

Published pick
New York Jets +7.5 -120
Published odds
-120
Result
Won
Final score
19-26

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 44 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 11 11:41 PM
Close
Oct 18 12:51 PM
Move
SPREADNew England Patriots -7 (-118)New England Patriots -7 (-115)Price
TOTAL44.5 (-108)43 (-110)−1½
MONEYLINENew England Patriots -350New England Patriots -350Holds
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 11 11:41 PMNew England Patriots -7 (-118)44.5 (-108)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +290
Oct 12 6:00 AMNew England Patriots -7 (-112)44.5 (-108)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +275
Oct 12 8:31 AMNew England Patriots -7 (-112)44.5 (-108)New England Patriots -325 · New York Jets +270
Oct 12 9:00 AMNew England Patriots -7 (-112)44.5 (-105)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +275
Oct 12 10:32 AMNew England Patriots -7 (-112)44 (-110)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +275
Oct 12 12:03 PMNew England Patriots -7 (-108)43.5 (-110)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +275
Oct 12 2:33 PMNew England Patriots -7 (-108)44 (-110)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +275
Oct 12 3:04 PMNew England Patriots -7 (-108)43.5 (-108)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +275
Oct 12 7:49 PMNew England Patriots -7 (-112)43.5 (-110)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +280
Oct 13 7:00 AMNew England Patriots -7 (-108)43.5 (-108)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +275
Oct 13 8:00 AMNew England Patriots -7 (-108)43.5 (-110)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +275
Oct 13 11:01 AMNew England Patriots -7 (-112)43.5 (-110)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +275
Oct 13 2:02 PMNew England Patriots -7 (-112)43.5 (-108)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +280
Oct 13 6:32 PMNew England Patriots -7 (-112)43.5 (-108)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +275
Oct 13 7:25 PMNew England Patriots -7 (-112)43.5 (-108)New England Patriots -325 · New York Jets +270
Oct 14 1:34 PMNew England Patriots -7 (-112)43.5 (-108)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +275
Oct 14 5:25 PMNew England Patriots -7 (-112)43.5 (-108)New England Patriots -325 · New York Jets +270
Oct 14 10:08 PMNew England Patriots -7 (-112)43.5 (-108)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +275
Oct 15 6:00 AMNew England Patriots -7 (-112)43.5 (-110)New England Patriots -325 · New York Jets +270
Oct 15 7:00 AMNew England Patriots -7 (-112)43.5 (-108)New England Patriots -325 · New York Jets +270
Oct 15 8:32 AMNew England Patriots -7 (-112)43.5 (-108)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +270
Oct 15 1:02 PMNew England Patriots -7 (-112)43.5 (-110)New England Patriots -325 · New York Jets +270
Oct 15 5:59 PMNew England Patriots -7 (-110)43.5 (-110)New England Patriots -325 · New York Jets +270
Oct 15 10:52 PMNew England Patriots -7 (-110)43.5 (-110)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +275
Oct 16 12:02 PMNew England Patriots -7 (-112)43.5 (-108)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +275
Oct 16 6:02 PMNew England Patriots -7 (-110)43.5 (-108)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +275
Oct 17 12:03 AMNew England Patriots -7 (-112)43.5 (-108)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +275
Oct 17 9:31 AMNew England Patriots -7 (-112)43.5 (-110)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +275
Oct 17 10:01 AMNew England Patriots -7 (-112)43.5 (-110)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +280
Oct 17 1:03 PMNew England Patriots -7.5 (-102)43.5 (-110)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +280
Oct 17 2:33 PMNew England Patriots -7 (-115)43.5 (-110)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +280
Oct 17 5:03 PMNew England Patriots -7 (-115)43.5 (-108)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +290
Oct 17 7:03 PMNew England Patriots -7 (-118)43 (-120)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +290
Oct 17 7:33 PMNew England Patriots -7 (-115)43.5 (-110)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +280
Oct 17 8:33 PMNew England Patriots -7 (-118)43.5 (-110)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +280
Oct 17 9:34 PMNew England Patriots -7 (-115)43.5 (-110)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +280
Oct 18 5:00 AMNew England Patriots -7 (-115)43.5 (-108)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +290
Oct 18 7:21 AMNew England Patriots -7 (-112)43.5 (-108)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +290
Oct 18 7:41 AMNew England Patriots -7.5 (-102)43.5 (-108)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +280
Oct 18 8:21 AMNew England Patriots -7 (-112)43.5 (-108)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +290
Oct 18 8:51 AMNew England Patriots -7 (-115)43.5 (-108)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +280
Oct 18 12:13 PMNew England Patriots -7 (-115)43 (-105)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +280
Oct 18 12:34 PMNew England Patriots -7 (-115)43 (-110)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +290
Oct 18 12:41 PMNew England Patriots -7 (-115)42.5 (-112)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +290
CLOSEOct 18 12:51 PMNew England Patriots -7 (-115)43 (-110)New England Patriots -350 · New York Jets +275

The read

Clear skies and barely a breeze in Foxborough. The Patriots come home on a two-game win streak and the glow of a 45-17 rout of the Raiders, while the Jets roll in at 2-3 off an ugly 17-12 win over Cleveland. Everything about this week screams New England, and that is exactly why the value sits with New York.

That rout, with Drake Maye accounting for 5 TDs, plus the return of A.J. Brown and Christian Gonzalez, has pushed this number past a touchdown. New England is the better team and probably wins. Winning by more than a touchdown against this opponent is a different ask.

The Jets' defense is the real deal: 4th in EPA per play allowed, 5th in yards per play, 5th in points allowed. In a low-scoring game every point of the spread matters, and that half-point hook grows when the scoreboard stays quiet.

New England's offense hasn't scored like its talent, either. The Patriots rank 11th in EPA per play but 19th in points, held back by 11 giveaways (29th in the league) and 7 interceptions from Maye. Outside the Raiders game, they put up 6, 10 and 20 in three of their games. Turnovers keep a favorite from pulling away.

The Jets are the opposite. They have just 3 giveaways, 5th-best, and Geno Smith hasn't thrown an interception in 5 games. Braelon Allen can lean on the ground game and shorten the afternoon, the same formula that beat Cleveland. Two of the Jets' three losses were one-score games, and division familiarity tends to squeeze margins.

The risk is real. Maye has been excellent the last two weeks, Brown raises the ceiling, and the Jets' offense ranks 27th in scoring behind a line that has allowed 16 sacks. If Elijah Ponder lives in the backfield and the Jets stall in the low teens, this one gets away.

Still, a ball-secure, top-five defense getting more than a touchdown against a favorite priced off one blowout is the side worth taking, even at the steeper price.

Injuries noted

New York Jets: Tyler Baron (PUP-R) — The Jets moved Baron (knee) to the reserve/PUP list Sunday, Eric Allen and Amanda Vogt of the team's official site report.; Kingsley Jonathan (IR) — ir; VJ Payne (IR); Tre Brown (IR) — Brown (undisclosed) was placed on the Jets' injured reserve Sunday, Amanda Vogt and Eric Allen of the team's official site report.; Anez Cooper (IR-R) — The Jets placed Cooper (shoulder) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Al Iannazzone of Newsday reports.; Chip Trayanum (IR) — Trayanum (neck) was placed on injured reserve by the Jets on Sunday, Eric Allen & Amanda Vogt of the team's official website report.; Marcelino McCrary-Ball (IR) — ir; David Onyemata (IR) — Onyemata (groin) underwent core-muscle surgery Wednesday, Antwan V. Staley of the New York Daily News reports.; Arian Smith (IR) — Smith (knee) underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a torn ACL and will miss the rest of the season, Antwan V. Staley of the New York Daily News reports.; Adonai Mitchell (Out) — inactive; Breece Hall (Out) — inactive; Dylan Parham (Out) — inactive; Braiden McGregor (IR) — McGregor (pectoral) was placed on the Jets' injured reserve list Wednesday, Eric Allen of the team's official site reports.; Joseph Ossai (Out) — inactive; Jack Heflin (Out) — inactive; Nahshon Wright (Out) — inactive; Dane Belton (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 6: Questionable (Knee); practice: Full.; Kenyon Sadiq (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 6: Questionable (Concussion); practice: Full.; Omar Cooper Jr. (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 6: Questionable (Ankle); practice: Full.

New England Patriots: Harold Landry III (PUP-R) — Landry (undisclosed) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Patriots on Sunday.; Jeremiah Webb (IR) — The Patriots placed Webb (arm) on injured reserve Sunday, Evan Lazar of the team's official site reports.; Julian Hill (IR) — The Patriots placed Hill (knee) on IR on Monday, Evan Lazar of the team's official site reports.; Myles Montgomery (IR); Bryce Baringer (IR) — The Patriots placed Baringer (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday.; Marcus Bryant (IR-R) — The Patriots opened the 21-day practice window Wednesday for Bryant (ankle) to return from injured reserve.; Khalil Jacobs (IR) — The Patriots placed Jacobs (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday.; Karon Prunty (Out) — inactive; Carlton Davis III (Out) — inactive; Mike Onwenu (IR) — The Patriots placed Onwenu (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Dell Pettus (IR) — The Patriots placed Pettus (ankle) on injured reserve Wednesday.; Reggie Gilliam (IR) — The Patriots placed Gilliam (ankle/knee) on injured reserve Saturday, Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports.; Quintayvious Hutchins (IR) — Hutchins (knee) was placed on injured reserve Friday.; Greg Van Roten (IR) — The Patriots placed Van Roten (thigh) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Channing Canada (Out) — inactive; Mack Hollins (IR) — The Patriots placed Hollins (calf) on injured reserve Saturday, Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports.; Tanner Arkin (Out) — inactive; Dametrious Crownover (Out) — inactive; Behren Morton (Out) — inactive; A.J. Brown (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 6: Questionable (Ankle); practice: Limited.; Christian Elliss (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 6: Questionable (Chest); practice: Full.; Will Campbell (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 6: Questionable (Knee); practice: Limited.; Craig Woodson (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 6: Questionable (Shoulder); practice: Full.; TreVeyon Henderson (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 6: Questionable (Ankle); practice: Limited.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Geno Smith is the projected starting quarterback for NYJ

    7.37 Y/A

    Through 5 games in 2026, Geno Smith threw for 1084 passing yards, completed 69.4% of his passes and averaged 7.37 yards per attempt. Last season over 15 games he threw for 3025 yards, completed 67.4% and averaged 6.75 yards per attempt, 19-17 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 5 games in.

  • Drake Maye is the projected starting quarterback for NE

    8.13 Y/A

    Through 5 games in 2026, Drake Maye threw for 1228 passing yards, completed 65.6% of his passes and averaged 8.13 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4394 yards, completed 72% and averaged 8.93 yards per attempt, 31-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 8-7 touchdown-to-interception line is 5 games in.

TRENCHES

  • NE: 90.8 rushing yards allowed per game to NYJ's 118

    27.2 YPG

    NYJ is at 118 rushing yards allowed per game over 5 games; NE is at 90.8 over 5 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 17.

PASS RUSH

  • NE: 9.6 sack yards lost per game to NYJ's 26.8

    17.2 YDS

    The Jets are losing 26.8 yards a game to sacks, nearly the same as 24.9 last season, so this is a lasting problem. New England gives up only 9.6, better than last year's 12.6. Jets drives are more likely to stall from sacks pushing them into long down and distance, which makes the Patriots' pass rush matter in this game.

  • NYJ: 3.4 sacks recorded per game to NE's 2.2

    1.2 SACKS

    The Jets' pass rush is getting home more than three times a game across 5 games, while New England's defense sits at 2.2. The sheet doesn't say who either team has faced, so some of that gap could come from the quarterbacks and lines they've seen. Five games is a real but early sample. If the Patriots' protection is shaky, the Jets' rush is the edge to watch in drive-killing spots and quarterback props.

  • NE: 2.2 sacks taken per game to NYJ's 3.2

    1 SACKS

    NYJ is at 3.2 sacks taken per game over 5 games; NE is at 2.2 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 17. Last season NYJ was at 3.75 over 17 games and NE at 3 over 17 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • NE: 22 points per game to NYJ's 18.6

    3.4 PPG

    NYJ is at 18.6 points per game over 5 games; NE is at 22 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 17. Last season NYJ was at 17.6 over 17 games and NE at 28.8 over 17 games.

  • NE: 63.8 offensive plays per game to NYJ's 58.8

    5 PLAYS

    NYJ is at 58.8 offensive plays per game over 5 games; NE is at 63.8 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 17. Last season NYJ was at 59.4 over 17 games and NE at 61.4 over 17 games.

TURNOVERS

  • NYJ: 0.6 turnovers committed per game to NE's 2.2

    1.6 TO

    The Jets are protecting the ball at 0.6 giveaways a game after 1.35 last season, while New England has jumped from 0.94 to 2.2. Turnover rates swing a lot over five games, so both numbers should drift back toward last year's. Expect the Patriots' giveaway rate to cool more than the Jets' care to hold. Weigh this lightly when pricing the game, because it's the stat most likely to fade.

  • NYJ: 0 interceptions thrown per game to NE's 1.4

    1.4 INT

    The Jets have not thrown an interception in 5 games after 0.76 a game last season, and New England is at 1.4 a game, triple last year's 0.47. Zero is a streak, so expect the Jets to throw one eventually, and the Patriots' rate is likely to come down too. For this game, the turnover edge leans Jets on current form, but both numbers are the kind that move fast.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • NE: 5.84 yards per play to NYJ's 4.88

    0.96 Y/P

    New England gains 5.84 yards a play to the Jets' 4.88 over five games. The Patriots are a bit below last season's 6.23 and the Jets are up from 4.36, so the gap has narrowed. New England's last game had 7 plays of 20-plus yards, with Drake Maye hitting Kyle Williams for 49 and 34, against 3 for the Jets. The Patriots win with explosive throws, so this matchup hinges on whether the Jets can keep Maye's deep shots in front of them.

RED ZONE

  • NE: 57.1% red-zone scoring rate to NYJ's 46.2%

    11 PP

    NYJ is at 46.2% red-zone scoring rate over 5 games; NE is at 57.1% over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 17. Last season NYJ was at 44.7% over 17 games and NE at 57.1% over 17 games.

  • NYJ: 50% red-zone scoring allowed to NE's 60%

    10 PP

    NYJ is at 50% red-zone scoring allowed over 5 games; NE is at 60% over 5 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 17.

MISMATCH

  • NYJ: 0.6 turnovers a game to NE's 2.2

    0.6 VS 2.2

    New England has given the ball away 2.2 times a game over 5 games, while the Jets sit at 0.6. Last season both were cleaner and the order was flipped: New England 0.94, the Jets 1.35. Five games is a short run, and turnover rates swing hard, so the Patriots' number will likely come down and the Jets' will likely rise. For this game, give the Jets' ball security some credit, but do not price New England as a team that will keep coughing it up at this rate.

COVERAGE

  • NYJ: 4.5 yards per play allowed to NE's 5.26

    0.76 Y/P

    The Jets allow 4.5 yards per snap through 5 games, ahead of New England at 5.26. Per-play numbers hold up better than totals because they ignore pace and game flow. The sheet doesn't show who either team faced, so schedule could be shading both. On the road, the Jets defense looks like the unit better equipped to keep this game low on efficiency.

  • NYJ: 175 passing yards allowed per game to NE's 205.4

    30.4 YPG

    NYJ is at 175 passing yards allowed per game over 5 games; NE is at 205.4 over 5 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 17.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

  • NE lead the series with NYJ since 2025

    2-0 SERIES

    New England won both meetings last season and neither was close. The Patriots beat the Jets 27-14 at home on Nov 13, then won 42-10 in New York on Dec 28, so the gap grew as the season went on. Two games is a small sample, but both were double-digit wins, and this one is in New England, where the Jets lost by 13.

REPLACEMENT

  • Marcus Bryant (OT) is ir-r for NE

    IR-R

    The Patriots opened Marcus Bryant's 21-day practice window Wednesday as he works back from an ankle injury. That means he can practice now, with a return possible inside that window. He is unlikely to change the Jets matchup unless New England activates him this week.

  • Mack Hollins (WR) is on injured reserve for NE

    IR

    New England put Hollins on IR with a calf injury, reported Oct 10, so he is out against the Jets. IR means he cannot play until he is eligible to return. The facts here do not say who picks up his receiver snaps.

  • Braiden McGregor (DE) is on injured reserve for NYJ

    IR

    The Jets put McGregor on IR Wednesday with a pectoral injury, reported Oct 7, so he is out at New England. IR means he cannot play until he is eligible to return. The facts here do not name his replacement on the edge.

  • Reggie Gilliam (FB) is on injured reserve for NE

    IR

    The Patriots moved fullback Reggie Gilliam to injured reserve on Saturday, Oct 11, with ankle and knee injuries. IR means he is out for this game against the Jets and will miss at least several weeks before he can return. A fullback plays a limited role, mostly lead blocking in short-yardage and goal-line packages, so his absence matters more to how New England lines up near the end zone than to the overall game script.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Carlton Davis III

    Out

    Neck · Did not practice · Out

  • Dylan Parham

    Out

    Knee · Did not practice · Out

  • Adonai Mitchell

    Out

    Finger · Did not practice · Out

  • Joseph Ossai

    Out

    Ankle · Did not practice · Out

  • Breece Hall

    Out

    Quadricep · Did not practice · Out

  • Karon Prunty

    Out

    Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

  • Omar Cooper Jr.

    Questionable

    Ankle · Full practice · Questionable

  • TreVeyon Henderson

    Questionable

    Ankle · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Kenyon Sadiq

    Questionable

    Concussion · Full practice · Questionable

  • Christian Elliss

    Questionable

    Chest · Full practice · Questionable

  • A.J. Brown

    Questionable

    Ankle · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Dane Belton

    Questionable

    Knee · Full practice · Questionable

  • Craig Woodson

    Questionable

    Shoulder · Full practice · Questionable

  • Channing Canada

    Questionable

    Hamstring · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Will Campbell

    Questionable

    Knee · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Cory Durden

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • Morgan Moses

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Marcus Jones

    FP

    Full practice

  • Dre'Mont Jones

    FP

    Full practice

  • Drake Maye

    FP

    Full practice

  • Kiko Mauigoa

    FP

    Full practice

  • Charles Woods

    FP

    Full practice

  • Kevin Byard

    FP

    Full practice

  • Christian Gonzalez

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • NYJ (2-3) at NE (3-2), a division game

    +19 PT GAP

    New England has won two straight and is 2-0 at home with a +16 differential. The Jets at 2-3 and -3 are closer to average than their record implies, and they are 1-2 on the road. The Patriots' home split and positive differential give them the firmer case. Expect a division game between a mid-pack visitor and a home team that has done its job at home so far.

AFTER GARY

  • NYJ +7.5 → +7.5

    NO MOVE

    Gary's number was 7.5; the same book now shows 7.5.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 15, 2026 at 5:20 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    GENO SMITHINTERCEPTIONS UNDER 0.5
    NFLNew York Jets· -107

    Geno Smith
    Interceptions under 0.5

    -107 · LOST · ACTUAL 1

    New York Jets

    I'm taking Geno Smith under 0.5 interceptions at -107. Smith has thrown 147 passes over five starts this season without an interception. That is the longest clean opening stretch of his career.

    The way the Jets play explains why. Frank Reich has built this offense on the short game, outside zone and duo runs. New York throws short more than any team in the league, and Smith rarely throws deep. Captain Kevin Byard said it himself this week: Smith is holding the ball because he does not want to give it away. When a quarterback is that careful, the cost usually shows up as sacks and checkdowns. The Jets have taken 16 sacks, and their ball has stayed out of the other team's hands.

    New England has not been taking the ball away either. The Patriots have forced six turnovers all season, and only three of those were interceptions of quarterbacks. Vrabel admitted it this week: if you want turnovers against Smith, you have to go out and force them.

    The price also helps. In recent weeks this market carried a heavier price on the over. Today it is close to even, and I'll take the cheaper side.

    The case against this is real. Smith threw 17 interceptions last season, so the clean five games are a small sample next to a long history. Zak Kuhr's simulated cover zero looks just made Kirk Cousins look helpless. Smith ranks near the bottom of the league against cover-1, and Christian Gonzalez is in line to return to shadow Garrett Wilson. If New England builds a lead and the Jets have to throw into that pressure in the fourth quarter, one forced ball or a tipped pass ends this ticket. Even so, I trust a quarterback playing this carefully against a defense that has struggled to create takeaways.

  • GARY'S PICK
    OMAR COOPER JR.RECEPTIONS UNDER 1.5
    NFLNew York Jets· -118

    Omar Cooper Jr.
    Receptions under 1.5

    -118 · LOST · ACTUAL 6

    New York Jets

    I'm taking Omar Cooper Jr. under 1.5 receptions at -118. The rookie has one NFL game on his record, and in it he played 5 of 71 snaps and caught one pass before an ankle injury sent him to injured reserve. His practice window opened this week. He is listed questionable even after full practices. That reads like a player being brought back carefully, and I don't see a featured role here.

    The Jets receiver room filled in while he was out. Tim Patrick played almost every snap in his debut last week. Isaiah Williams has been the steady second receiver all year, and Reich just rebuilt the passing plan around Garrett Wilson after he got lost in the shuffle against Chicago. Smith throws about 29 passes a game, the Jets want to lean on Braelon Allen, and my side of this game expects a tight, low-scoring afternoon. With Wilson, the tight ends and the backs all ahead of Cooper, that leaves very few targets for a player returning from an injury.

    The risk is the opening in the lineup. Adonai Mitchell is out again, so the room is thin, and Cooper is a first-round pick the Jets want to see on the field. The Patriots secondary is shorthanded behind its starters with Carlton Davis and two depth corners inactive, and receivers have caught plenty against New England this year. In a short passing game, two quick completions on a handful of snaps is enough to beat me. My evidence on Cooper is one game in which he barely played, and the case for him is about what his role could become. I'll bet on the role he has right now.

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