Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
O/U 39.5 · SPREAD New York Jets -3.5 · MetLife Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Miami Dolphins +3.5 -105
- Published odds
- -105
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 28-25
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETRIVERS · 55 moves| Market | Opened Oct 19 6:00 AM | Close Sun 12:41 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | New York Jets -5.5 (-113) | New York Jets -4 (-108) | −1½ |
| TOTAL | 39.5 (-108) | 39.5 (-105) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | New York Jets -265 | New York Jets -205 | +60 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 19 6:00 AM | New York Jets -5.5 (-113) | 39.5 (-108) | New York Jets -265 · Miami Dolphins +210 |
| Oct 19 9:00 AM | New York Jets -5.5 (-113) | 39.5 (-108) | New York Jets -245 · Miami Dolphins +195 |
| Oct 19 11:31 AM | New York Jets -4.5 (-113) | 39 (-114) | New York Jets -245 · Miami Dolphins +195 |
| Oct 19 12:01 PM | New York Jets -5.5 (-109) | 39.5 (-108) | New York Jets -240 · Miami Dolphins +192 |
| Oct 19 2:31 PM | New York Jets -5.5 (-109) | 39 (-113) | New York Jets -240 · Miami Dolphins +192 |
| Oct 19 3:01 PM | New York Jets -6 (-110) | 39.5 (-109) | New York Jets -275 · Miami Dolphins +210 |
| Oct 19 3:31 PM | New York Jets -5.5 (-112) | 39.5 (-114) | New York Jets -250 · Miami Dolphins +195 |
| Oct 19 4:31 PM | New York Jets -5.5 (-112) | 39.5 (-114) | New York Jets -250 · Miami Dolphins +195 |
| Oct 19 5:35 PM | New York Jets -5.5 (-110) | 39 (-113) | New York Jets -250 · Miami Dolphins +195 |
| Oct 20 6:00 AM | New York Jets -5 (-112) | 39 (-113) | New York Jets -245 · Miami Dolphins +195 |
| Oct 21 6:00 AM | New York Jets -5 (-110) | 39 (-113) | New York Jets -240 · Miami Dolphins +190 |
| Oct 21 1:32 PM | New York Jets -5.5 (-110) | 39.5 (-112) | New York Jets -250 · Miami Dolphins +195 |
| Oct 21 2:32 PM | New York Jets -5.5 (-110) | 39.5 (-113) | New York Jets -250 · Miami Dolphins +195 |
| Oct 21 4:32 PM | New York Jets -5.5 (-113) | 39.5 (-115) | New York Jets -265 · Miami Dolphins +205 |
| Oct 21 5:32 PM | New York Jets -5.5 (-113) | 39.5 (-110) | New York Jets -265 · Miami Dolphins +200 |
| Oct 21 8:21 PM | New York Jets -4.5 (-113) | 39.5 (-110) | New York Jets -230 · Miami Dolphins +180 |
| Oct 21 8:51 PM | New York Jets -4.5 (-113) | 39.5 (-112) | New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +185 |
| Oct 21 11:52 PM | New York Jets -4.5 (-112) | 39.5 (-109) | New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +185 |
| Oct 22 6:00 AM | New York Jets -5 (-113) | 39.5 (-106) | New York Jets -240 · Miami Dolphins +190 |
| Oct 22 6:30 AM | New York Jets -5 (-113) | 39.5 (-107) | New York Jets -240 · Miami Dolphins +190 |
| Thu 10:58 AM | New York Jets -5 (-113) | 39.5 (-107) | New York Jets -250 · Miami Dolphins +195 |
| Thu 11:28 AM | New York Jets -4.5 (-112) | 39.5 (-106) | New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +185 |
| Thu 2:59 PM | New York Jets -4 (-110) | 39.5 (-104) | New York Jets -210 · Miami Dolphins +165 |
| Thu 4:29 PM | New York Jets -5 (-112) | 39.5 (-105) | New York Jets -245 · Miami Dolphins +190 |
| Thu 5:23 PM | New York Jets -5 (-113) | 39.5 (-107) | New York Jets -245 · Miami Dolphins +195 |
| Thu 6:33 PM | New York Jets -5 (-107) | 39.5 (-107) | New York Jets -240 · Miami Dolphins +190 |
| Thu 7:44 PM | New York Jets -4.5 (-114) | 39.5 (-107) | New York Jets -240 · Miami Dolphins +190 |
| Thu 9:24 PM | New York Jets -4.5 (-112) | 39.5 (-107) | New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +180 |
| Fri 12:25 AM | New York Jets -4.5 (-112) | 39.5 (-108) | New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +180 |
| Fri 9:00 AM | New York Jets -4.5 (-113) | 39.5 (-106) | New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +185 |
| Fri 10:01 AM | New York Jets -4.5 (-112) | 39.5 (-106) | New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +185 |
| Fri 12:02 PM | New York Jets -4.5 (-110) | 39.5 (-106) | New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +180 |
| Fri 1:32 PM | New York Jets -4.5 (-112) | 39.5 (-106) | New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +185 |
| Fri 2:02 PM | New York Jets -4.5 (-112) | 38.5 (-117) | New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +185 |
| Sat 4:45 AM | New York Jets -4.5 (-112) | 38.5 (-110) | New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +185 |
| Sat 6:00 AM | New York Jets -4.5 (-112) | 38.5 (-117) | New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +185 |
| Sat 1:32 PM | New York Jets -5 (-108) | 39.5 (-105) | New York Jets -240 · Miami Dolphins +190 |
| Sat 4:02 PM | New York Jets -4.5 (-112) | 39.5 (-105) | New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +185 |
| Sun 4:45 AM | New York Jets -4.5 (-113) | 38.5 (-113) | New York Jets -240 · Miami Dolphins +185 |
| Sun 5:00 AM | New York Jets -4.5 (-113) | 38.5 (-114) | New York Jets -240 · Miami Dolphins +185 |
| Sun 6:00 AM | New York Jets -4.5 (-112) | 38.5 (-114) | New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +185 |
| Sun 8:52 AM | New York Jets -4 (-115) | 38.5 (-114) | New York Jets -225 · Miami Dolphins +175 |
| Sun 9:00 AM | New York Jets -4 (-115) | 38.5 (-113) | New York Jets -225 · Miami Dolphins +175 |
| Sun 9:09 AM | New York Jets -4.5 (-108) | 38.5 (-114) | New York Jets -225 · Miami Dolphins +180 |
| Sun 9:20 AM | New York Jets -4.5 (-110) | 38.5 (-113) | New York Jets -230 · Miami Dolphins +180 |
| Sun 9:21 AM | New York Jets -4 (-110) | 38.5 (-112) | New York Jets -215 · Miami Dolphins +170 |
| Sun 9:31 AM | New York Jets -3.5 (-114) | 38.5 (-114) | New York Jets -205 · Miami Dolphins +163 |
| Sun 10:00 AM | New York Jets -4 (-108) | 39.5 (-106) | New York Jets -210 · Miami Dolphins +165 |
| Sun 10:10 AM | New York Jets -4 (-108) | 39.5 (-106) | New York Jets -210 · Miami Dolphins +165 |
| Sun 10:20 AM | New York Jets -3.5 (-114) | 39.5 (-106) | New York Jets -205 · Miami Dolphins +163 |
| Sun 10:30 AM | New York Jets -4 (-108) | 39.5 (-106) | New York Jets -210 · Miami Dolphins +165 |
| Sun 10:50 AM | New York Jets -4.5 (-112) | 39.5 (-107) | New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +185 |
| Sun 11:41 AM | New York Jets -3.5 (-112) | 39.5 (-107) | New York Jets -200 · Miami Dolphins +160 |
| Sun 12:11 PM | New York Jets -3.5 (-114) | 38.5 (-118) | New York Jets -205 · Miami Dolphins +163 |
| Sun 12:21 PM | New York Jets -4 (-108) | 38.5 (-118) | New York Jets -205 · Miami Dolphins +165 |
| CLOSESun 12:41 PM | New York Jets -4 (-108) | 39.5 (-105) | New York Jets -205 · Miami Dolphins +163 |
The read
Miami arrives at MetLife off a bye, 0-5 and still chasing a first win. The 2-4 Jets are hunting their first AFC East win under Glenn. The records scream mismatch, but the underlying numbers say this one is closer than 3.5.
Both records overstate the gap. Miami has been outscored by 62 but outgained by only 248 yards, against SF, KC and MIN (16-0 combined) plus CIN and LV. Three things built that scoreboard: turnovers (8 given, 4 taken), opponents' short fields (7 drives starting in Miami territory, 27 points) and Patterson's missed kicks. The Jets are only -10 in points, but that leans on +4 in turnovers, Jason Sanders going 12-of-13 on field goals and Geno Smith throwing 1 INT in 177 attempts. None of those are rates to project.
The quarterback gap is real. Smith is at 7.5 yards per attempt with 7 TD and 1 INT; Malik Willis is at 6.5 with 2 and 4. That gap is most of what this number prices. Willis hurt the throwing thumb during the bye but practiced fully all week and is cleared.
The Jets don't build margins. They haven't topped 24 points and have no touchdowns on their last six red-zone trips. Miami lets opponents into the red zone on 21 of 43 drives, so that's the Jets' path to covering. But this offense wins with field goals, and field-goal wins land around 3 to 6.
Miami's run game has climbed every week, from 74 yards to 217. The Jets gave up 232 and 148 on the ground in two of their last three, and now they're without Joseph Ossai and Mauigoa. A grinding game means fewer possessions for the Jets to pull away.
Noise: Breece Hall (out three straight, and Braelon Allen has run better), Hafley's homecoming, Glenn's fine, a calm 64-degree afternoon. Adonai Mitchell's return with Reese Taylor out nudges the Jets' passing game a little, but it doesn't swing the game.
What beats this ticket: Willis turnovers, since four lost fumbles plus four picks is partly a real problem, and the Jets finally finishing drives. This is a lean, not a hammer. Dolphins +3.5.
Injuries noted
Miami Dolphins: Darrell Baker Jr. (PUP-R) — Baker (undisclosed) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Dolphins on Sunday.; Rene Konga (IR); Trey Moore (IR-R) — ir; Cole Turner (IR) — Turner (undisclosed) reverted to the Dolphins' injured-reserve list Thursday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Reese Taylor (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Quadricep); practice: DNP. Taylor (quadriceps) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.; Ronnie Harrison Jr. (IR) — The Dolphins placed Harrison (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday.; Robert Beal Jr. (Doubtful) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Doubtful (Hamstring); practice: Limited. doubtful; De'Von Achane (IR) — The Dolphins placed Achane (knee) on injured reserve Monday.; Willie Gay Jr. (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Illness); practice: Limited. questionable; Kyle Louis (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Knee); practice: Full.
New York Jets: Tyler Baron (PUP-R) — The Jets moved Baron (knee) to the reserve/PUP list Sunday, Eric Allen and Amanda Vogt of the team's official site report.; Kingsley Jonathan (IR) — ir; VJ Payne (IR); Tre Brown (IR) — Brown (undisclosed) was placed on the Jets' injured reserve Sunday, Amanda Vogt and Eric Allen of the team's official site report.; Anez Cooper (IR-R) — The Jets placed Cooper (shoulder) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Al Iannazzone of Newsday reports.; Chip Trayanum (IR) — Trayanum (neck) was placed on injured reserve by the Jets on Sunday, Eric Allen & Amanda Vogt of the team's official website report.; Marcelino McCrary-Ball (IR) — ir; David Onyemata (IR) — Onyemata (groin) underwent core-muscle surgery Wednesday, Antwan V. Staley of the New York Daily News reports.; Arian Smith (IR) — Smith (knee) underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a torn ACL and will miss the rest of the season, Antwan V. Staley of the New York Daily News reports.; Breece Hall (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Quadricep); practice: Limited. Hall (quadriceps) is unlikely to suit up for Sunday's game against the Dolphins, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.; Dylan Parham (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Knee); practice: Limited. Parham (knee) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice.; Braiden McGregor (IR) — McGregor (pectoral) was placed on the Jets' injured reserve list Wednesday, Eric Allen of the team's official site reports.; Joseph Ossai (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Ankle); practice: DNP. Ossai (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Dolphins, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reports.; Kiko Mauigoa (IR) — The Jets placed Mauigoa (quadriceps) on injured reserve Saturday, Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic reports.; Kene Nwangwu (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Knee); practice: Full. Nwangwu (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Dolphins.; Max Mitchell (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Concussion); practice: DNP. Mitchell (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Dolphins, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reports.; Francisco Mauigoa (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Quadricep); practice: DNP.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Geno Smith is the projected starting quarterback for NYJ
7.55 Y/AThrough 6 games in 2026, Geno Smith threw for 1336 passing yards, completed 68.9% of his passes and averaged 7.55 yards per attempt. Last season over 15 games he threw for 3025 yards, completed 67.4% and averaged 6.75 yards per attempt, 19-17 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 7-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 6 games in.
Malik Willis is the projected starting quarterback for MIA
6.53 Y/AThrough 5 games in 2026, Malik Willis threw for 849 passing yards, completed 56.2% of his passes and averaged 6.53 yards per attempt. Last season over 4 games he threw for 422 yards, completed 85.7% and averaged 12.06 yards per attempt, 3-0 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 5 games in.
TRENCHES
MIA: 4.9 yards per rush attempt to NYJ's 3.58
1.32 Y/CMiami averages 4.9 a carry over five games, up from 4.64, while the Jets have dropped to 3.58 from 4.53. The Jets' run game falling off that much over six games is a real concern. Miami can lean on the ground to control the game on the road. If the Jets fall behind, their run game won't help them climb back.
MIA: 126.6 rushing yards per game to NYJ's 94.5
32.1 YPGMiami runs for 126.6 a game over 5 games, close to last season's 120.2. The Jets have fallen hard, from 123.3 last season to 94.5 over 6 games. Miami's number looks stable. The Jets' drop is the part that could move back up, but six games of it is more than a blip, so expect Miami to carry the ground game in New Jersey.
PASS RUSH
NYJ: 2.83 sacks recorded per game to MIA's 0.8
2.03 SACKSThe Jets are getting home almost three times a game over 6 games, while Miami's defense is under one sack a game across 5. That gap usually comes from a real pass rush on one side and a rush that rarely finishes on the other, though five or six games leaves room for movement. In Dolphins at Jets, the quarterback on the Miami side is the one more likely to be hurried, so sack props and drive killers lean toward New York's defense.
MIA: 16.2 sack yards lost per game to NYJ's 26.5
10.3 YDSMIA is at 16.2 sack yards lost per game over 5 games; NYJ is at 26.5 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season MIA was at 19.5 over 17 games and NYJ at 24.9 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPT
NYJ: 20.3 points allowed per game to MIA's 26.4
6.1 PPGMIA is at 26.4 points allowed per game over 5 games; NYJ is at 20.3 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season MIA was at 24.9 over 17 games and NYJ at 29.6 over 17 games.
MIA @ NYJ carries a 39.5 market total
39.5Four points under the 43.5 slate median, the market sees a tighter, lower-scoring game here. Scoring is expected to come slowly, with defenses holding the upper hand. For the expectation to crack, one offense would need to hit early big plays and force the other to chase. A fast start from either side is the main threat to a total priced this low.
NYJ: 18.7 points per game to MIA's 14
4.7 PPGMIA is at 14 points per game over 5 games; NYJ is at 18.7 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season MIA was at 20.4 over 17 games and NYJ at 17.6 over 17 games.
NYJ: 30:37 time of possession per game to MIA's 27:46
2:51 TOPMIA is at 27:46 time of possession per game over 5 games; NYJ is at 30:37 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season MIA was at 28:57 over 17 games and NYJ at 28:15 over 17 games.
TURNOVERS
NYJ: 1.33 takeaways per game to MIA's 0.8
0.53 TOMIA is at 0.8 takeaways per game over 5 games; NYJ is at 1.33 over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.
RED ZONE
NYJ: 50% red-zone scoring allowed to MIA's 63.6%
13.6 PPMIA is at 63.6% red-zone scoring allowed over 5 games; NYJ is at 50% over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.
MIA: 46.2% red-zone scoring rate to NYJ's 37.5%
8.7 PPMIA is at 46.2% red-zone scoring rate over 5 games; NYJ is at 37.5% over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season MIA was at 56.3% over 17 games and NYJ at 44.7% over 17 games.
MISMATCH
NYJ: 0.67 turnovers a game to MIA's 1.6
0.67 VS 1.6The Jets commit 0.67 turnovers a game over six games, down from 1.35 last season, while Miami is at 1.6, up a bit from 1.41. Miami has to protect the ball against a team that rarely gives extra possessions. Turnover rates jump around, so the Jets' clean start may not last. Possession battles like this often decide close games.
COVERAGE
NYJ: 37.7% third downs allowed to MIA's 51.7%
14.1 PPThe Jets allow conversions on 37.7% of third downs over 6 games, while Miami gives up 51.7% across 5. Paired with the Jets' sack rate, that looks like a defense that gets off the field on obvious passing downs. For Dolphins at Jets, Miami drives are more likely to stall, while New York's offence should get more extended possessions.
NYJ: 4.68 yards per play allowed to MIA's 5.7
1.02 Y/PThe Jets let offences gain 4.68 yards on an average snap across 6 games, while Miami's defense has given up 5.7 over 5. A full yard per play is a wide gap between two units, and it shows up as drives that stall versus drives that keep moving. These samples are only a third of a season, and the sheet does not say who either side faced, so some of the gap may be schedule. For this game, the Jets defense is the steadier side to lean on when sizing up Miami's ability to string together drives.
NYJ: 185 passing yards allowed per game to MIA's 219.2
34.2 YPGMIA is at 219.2 passing yards allowed per game over 5 games; NYJ is at 185 over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
MIA lead the series with NYJ since 2025
2-0 SERIESMiami won both meetings last season, and they looked different. The Sep 29 game at home was a one-score finish at 27-21, while the Dec 7 trip to New York was a blowout, 34-10. That road win matters since this one is also at the Jets. Two games is a small sample, so use the Dec 7 result as one data point on how Miami travels to this building rather than proof the Jets cannot compete.
REPLACEMENT
Kiko Mauigoa (LB) is on injured reserve for NYJ
IRThe Jets put linebacker Kiko Mauigoa on injured reserve on Saturday with a quadriceps injury, reported Oct 24. That rules Mauigoa out against Miami. The report names no replacement, so the linebacker snaps go to whoever the Jets have active.
PRACTICE REPORT
Kiko Mauigoa
OutQuadricep · Did not practice · Out
Max Mitchell
OutConcussion · Did not practice · Out
Reese Taylor
OutQuadricep · Did not practice · Out
Joseph Ossai
OutAnkle · Did not practice · Out
Robert Beal Jr.
DoubtfulHamstring · Limited practice · Doubtful
Willie Gay Jr.
QuestionableIllness · Limited practice · Questionable
Kyle Louis
QuestionableKnee · Full practice · Questionable
Dylan Parham
QuestionableKnee · Limited practice · Questionable
Breece Hall
QuestionableQuadricep · Limited practice · Questionable
Kene Nwangwu
QuestionableKnee · Full practice · Questionable
Tucker Addington
LPLimited practice
JuJu Brents
FPFull practice
Jaylen Wright
FPFull practice
Malik Willis
FPFull practice
Adonai Mitchell
FPFull practice
Will McDonald IV
FPFull practice
T'Vondre Sweat
FPFull practice
Demario Davis
FPFull practice
Jonah Savaiinaea
FPFull practice
Will Kacmarek
FPFull practice
Harrison Phillips
FPFull practice
Jordyn Brooks
FPFull practice
Caleb Douglas
FPFull practice
Jackson Woodard
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
MIA has 7 more days of rest
14d vs 7dMiami comes off the bye with 14 days to rest and prepare, and the Jets are on a standard week. The Dolphins get the healthier body and the extra film time, though they also have to travel for this one. Rest helps most when a team was banged up going into the break, so check the injury report before giving it much weight.
MIA (0-5) at NYJ (2-4), a division game
+52 PT GAPMiami has lost all five games by a combined 62 points and is 0-3 away from home, so this is a team without a single good result to point to. The Jets sit at 2-4 and -10, which means most of their losses have been close, and they are 1-1 at home. Division games tend to tighten up, but nothing on Miami's sheet suggests the slide is about to stop. The cleaner question for a bettor is whether the Jets can win by margin, since their own point total shows a team that plays tight games.
MIA: 52 penalty yards per game to NYJ's 74.5
22.5 YDSMIA is at 52 penalty yards per game over 5 games; NYJ is at 74.5 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season MIA was at 47.7 over 17 games and NYJ at 53.5 over 17 games.
MIA: 41.3% third-down conversion rate to NYJ's 35.1%
6.2 PPMIA is at 41.3% third-down conversion rate over 5 games; NYJ is at 35.1% over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season MIA was at 34.9% over 17 games and NYJ at 34.9% over 17 games.
STREAK
MIA has lost 5 straight
L5MIA has lost every game this season, 0-5, and goes on the road to NYJ. Five straight losses usually means real problems, though the sheet doesn't say how close those games were or who they came against. Winless teams tend to get priced as worse than they are, since the market leans on the record. That is the spot to think about here: whether MIA is as bad as 0-5 says, or just as bad as the number implies.
AFTER GARY
MIA +3.5 → +3.5
GARY +0.24PPGary's number was 3.5; the same book now shows 3.5.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 22, 2026 at 4:21 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKMALIK WASHINGTONRECEIVING YARDS OVER 40.5
Malik Washington is the one Dolphins receiver whose role doesn't move. He draws more of Malik Willis's targets than anyone on the roster and plays the bulk of the snaps. Miami also manufactures touches for him on handoffs and quick throws. His yardage has stayed in a tight band, from the low 40s to the high 60s. That held even in Minnesota, when Willis threw for 85 yards total and Washington caught 67 of them.
That tells you where the ball goes when the passing game is short and safe, and short and safe is what Miami wants today. Willis is coming off a thumb issue on his throwing hand and the Dolphins want to lean on the run. The throws that do come should mostly be quick hitters underneath, and Washington is the target on those. Wide receivers have piled up catches and yards against this Jets defense all year. With Joseph Ossai out, the pass rush is thinner, which buys Willis a beat to find his first read.
What beats it: Caleb Douglas back in the lineup. He drew real volume in the two games he played, and if he takes over the intermediate looks, Washington's share gets trimmed. An early Willis giveaway that leaves Miami with few possessions would also cap the volume. At this number, I'll take the over.
- GARY'S PICKOLLIE GORDON IIRUSHING YARDS OVER 57.5
With De'Von Achane on IR, Ollie Gordon II is the back in Miami's plan, and the plan is to run. He has been the lead back since Achane went down. He got 17 and 18 carries in the two games where Miami ran a normal number of plays. The Minnesota game had only 39 offensive snaps and he still went for 100 yards on nine carries. Miami's ground game has improved every week, and the team comes out of a bye with two weeks to sharpen it.
The matchup is right. The Jets have been gashed on the ground lately, giving up 232 rushing yards to Chicago and 148 to New England. They are thinner now than in either of those games: Joseph Ossai is out, linebacker Mauigoa is out, and David Onyemata is on IR. Willis as a runner also changes things for a defense. When linebackers have to account for the quarterback on the edge, they leave interior lanes for the back. Gordon also gets the work at the goal line, so the carries don't leak away when Miami gets close.
I see this as a one-score game, which keeps Miami running its plan into the fourth quarter. What beats it: the Jets jump out early and Miami has to throw, or Willis keeps the ball on the read plays and eats into Gordon's yardage. Jaylen Wright's handful of carries is a small leak. Over 57.5.
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