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NFL · Sun, Oct 25 · 1:00 PM

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

O/U 39.5 · SPREAD New York Jets -3.5 · MetLife Stadium

GARY'S PICK
Dolphins +3.5
NFL@ Jets· -105

Dolphins
+3.5

-105 · CASHED · MIA 28 · NYJ 25

Jets

The pick & result

Published pick
Miami Dolphins +3.5 -105
Published odds
-105
Result
Won
Final score
28-25

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETRIVERS · 55 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 19 6:00 AM
Close
Sun 12:41 PM
Move
SPREADNew York Jets -5.5 (-113)New York Jets -4 (-108)−1½
TOTAL39.5 (-108)39.5 (-105)Price
MONEYLINENew York Jets -265New York Jets -205+60
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 19 6:00 AMNew York Jets -5.5 (-113)39.5 (-108)New York Jets -265 · Miami Dolphins +210
Oct 19 9:00 AMNew York Jets -5.5 (-113)39.5 (-108)New York Jets -245 · Miami Dolphins +195
Oct 19 11:31 AMNew York Jets -4.5 (-113)39 (-114)New York Jets -245 · Miami Dolphins +195
Oct 19 12:01 PMNew York Jets -5.5 (-109)39.5 (-108)New York Jets -240 · Miami Dolphins +192
Oct 19 2:31 PMNew York Jets -5.5 (-109)39 (-113)New York Jets -240 · Miami Dolphins +192
Oct 19 3:01 PMNew York Jets -6 (-110)39.5 (-109)New York Jets -275 · Miami Dolphins +210
Oct 19 3:31 PMNew York Jets -5.5 (-112)39.5 (-114)New York Jets -250 · Miami Dolphins +195
Oct 19 4:31 PMNew York Jets -5.5 (-112)39.5 (-114)New York Jets -250 · Miami Dolphins +195
Oct 19 5:35 PMNew York Jets -5.5 (-110)39 (-113)New York Jets -250 · Miami Dolphins +195
Oct 20 6:00 AMNew York Jets -5 (-112)39 (-113)New York Jets -245 · Miami Dolphins +195
Oct 21 6:00 AMNew York Jets -5 (-110)39 (-113)New York Jets -240 · Miami Dolphins +190
Oct 21 1:32 PMNew York Jets -5.5 (-110)39.5 (-112)New York Jets -250 · Miami Dolphins +195
Oct 21 2:32 PMNew York Jets -5.5 (-110)39.5 (-113)New York Jets -250 · Miami Dolphins +195
Oct 21 4:32 PMNew York Jets -5.5 (-113)39.5 (-115)New York Jets -265 · Miami Dolphins +205
Oct 21 5:32 PMNew York Jets -5.5 (-113)39.5 (-110)New York Jets -265 · Miami Dolphins +200
Oct 21 8:21 PMNew York Jets -4.5 (-113)39.5 (-110)New York Jets -230 · Miami Dolphins +180
Oct 21 8:51 PMNew York Jets -4.5 (-113)39.5 (-112)New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +185
Oct 21 11:52 PMNew York Jets -4.5 (-112)39.5 (-109)New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +185
Oct 22 6:00 AMNew York Jets -5 (-113)39.5 (-106)New York Jets -240 · Miami Dolphins +190
Oct 22 6:30 AMNew York Jets -5 (-113)39.5 (-107)New York Jets -240 · Miami Dolphins +190
Thu 10:58 AMNew York Jets -5 (-113)39.5 (-107)New York Jets -250 · Miami Dolphins +195
Thu 11:28 AMNew York Jets -4.5 (-112)39.5 (-106)New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +185
Thu 2:59 PMNew York Jets -4 (-110)39.5 (-104)New York Jets -210 · Miami Dolphins +165
Thu 4:29 PMNew York Jets -5 (-112)39.5 (-105)New York Jets -245 · Miami Dolphins +190
Thu 5:23 PMNew York Jets -5 (-113)39.5 (-107)New York Jets -245 · Miami Dolphins +195
Thu 6:33 PMNew York Jets -5 (-107)39.5 (-107)New York Jets -240 · Miami Dolphins +190
Thu 7:44 PMNew York Jets -4.5 (-114)39.5 (-107)New York Jets -240 · Miami Dolphins +190
Thu 9:24 PMNew York Jets -4.5 (-112)39.5 (-107)New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +180
Fri 12:25 AMNew York Jets -4.5 (-112)39.5 (-108)New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +180
Fri 9:00 AMNew York Jets -4.5 (-113)39.5 (-106)New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +185
Fri 10:01 AMNew York Jets -4.5 (-112)39.5 (-106)New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +185
Fri 12:02 PMNew York Jets -4.5 (-110)39.5 (-106)New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +180
Fri 1:32 PMNew York Jets -4.5 (-112)39.5 (-106)New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +185
Fri 2:02 PMNew York Jets -4.5 (-112)38.5 (-117)New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +185
Sat 4:45 AMNew York Jets -4.5 (-112)38.5 (-110)New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +185
Sat 6:00 AMNew York Jets -4.5 (-112)38.5 (-117)New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +185
Sat 1:32 PMNew York Jets -5 (-108)39.5 (-105)New York Jets -240 · Miami Dolphins +190
Sat 4:02 PMNew York Jets -4.5 (-112)39.5 (-105)New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +185
Sun 4:45 AMNew York Jets -4.5 (-113)38.5 (-113)New York Jets -240 · Miami Dolphins +185
Sun 5:00 AMNew York Jets -4.5 (-113)38.5 (-114)New York Jets -240 · Miami Dolphins +185
Sun 6:00 AMNew York Jets -4.5 (-112)38.5 (-114)New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +185
Sun 8:52 AMNew York Jets -4 (-115)38.5 (-114)New York Jets -225 · Miami Dolphins +175
Sun 9:00 AMNew York Jets -4 (-115)38.5 (-113)New York Jets -225 · Miami Dolphins +175
Sun 9:09 AMNew York Jets -4.5 (-108)38.5 (-114)New York Jets -225 · Miami Dolphins +180
Sun 9:20 AMNew York Jets -4.5 (-110)38.5 (-113)New York Jets -230 · Miami Dolphins +180
Sun 9:21 AMNew York Jets -4 (-110)38.5 (-112)New York Jets -215 · Miami Dolphins +170
Sun 9:31 AMNew York Jets -3.5 (-114)38.5 (-114)New York Jets -205 · Miami Dolphins +163
Sun 10:00 AMNew York Jets -4 (-108)39.5 (-106)New York Jets -210 · Miami Dolphins +165
Sun 10:10 AMNew York Jets -4 (-108)39.5 (-106)New York Jets -210 · Miami Dolphins +165
Sun 10:20 AMNew York Jets -3.5 (-114)39.5 (-106)New York Jets -205 · Miami Dolphins +163
Sun 10:30 AMNew York Jets -4 (-108)39.5 (-106)New York Jets -210 · Miami Dolphins +165
Sun 10:50 AMNew York Jets -4.5 (-112)39.5 (-107)New York Jets -235 · Miami Dolphins +185
Sun 11:41 AMNew York Jets -3.5 (-112)39.5 (-107)New York Jets -200 · Miami Dolphins +160
Sun 12:11 PMNew York Jets -3.5 (-114)38.5 (-118)New York Jets -205 · Miami Dolphins +163
Sun 12:21 PMNew York Jets -4 (-108)38.5 (-118)New York Jets -205 · Miami Dolphins +165
CLOSESun 12:41 PMNew York Jets -4 (-108)39.5 (-105)New York Jets -205 · Miami Dolphins +163

The read

Miami arrives at MetLife off a bye, 0-5 and still chasing a first win. The 2-4 Jets are hunting their first AFC East win under Glenn. The records scream mismatch, but the underlying numbers say this one is closer than 3.5.

Both records overstate the gap. Miami has been outscored by 62 but outgained by only 248 yards, against SF, KC and MIN (16-0 combined) plus CIN and LV. Three things built that scoreboard: turnovers (8 given, 4 taken), opponents' short fields (7 drives starting in Miami territory, 27 points) and Patterson's missed kicks. The Jets are only -10 in points, but that leans on +4 in turnovers, Jason Sanders going 12-of-13 on field goals and Geno Smith throwing 1 INT in 177 attempts. None of those are rates to project.

The quarterback gap is real. Smith is at 7.5 yards per attempt with 7 TD and 1 INT; Malik Willis is at 6.5 with 2 and 4. That gap is most of what this number prices. Willis hurt the throwing thumb during the bye but practiced fully all week and is cleared.

The Jets don't build margins. They haven't topped 24 points and have no touchdowns on their last six red-zone trips. Miami lets opponents into the red zone on 21 of 43 drives, so that's the Jets' path to covering. But this offense wins with field goals, and field-goal wins land around 3 to 6.

Miami's run game has climbed every week, from 74 yards to 217. The Jets gave up 232 and 148 on the ground in two of their last three, and now they're without Joseph Ossai and Mauigoa. A grinding game means fewer possessions for the Jets to pull away.

Noise: Breece Hall (out three straight, and Braelon Allen has run better), Hafley's homecoming, Glenn's fine, a calm 64-degree afternoon. Adonai Mitchell's return with Reese Taylor out nudges the Jets' passing game a little, but it doesn't swing the game.

What beats this ticket: Willis turnovers, since four lost fumbles plus four picks is partly a real problem, and the Jets finally finishing drives. This is a lean, not a hammer. Dolphins +3.5.

Injuries noted

Miami Dolphins: Darrell Baker Jr. (PUP-R) — Baker (undisclosed) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Dolphins on Sunday.; Rene Konga (IR); Trey Moore (IR-R) — ir; Cole Turner (IR) — Turner (undisclosed) reverted to the Dolphins' injured-reserve list Thursday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Reese Taylor (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Quadricep); practice: DNP. Taylor (quadriceps) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.; Ronnie Harrison Jr. (IR) — The Dolphins placed Harrison (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday.; Robert Beal Jr. (Doubtful) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Doubtful (Hamstring); practice: Limited. doubtful; De'Von Achane (IR) — The Dolphins placed Achane (knee) on injured reserve Monday.; Willie Gay Jr. (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Illness); practice: Limited. questionable; Kyle Louis (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Knee); practice: Full.

New York Jets: Tyler Baron (PUP-R) — The Jets moved Baron (knee) to the reserve/PUP list Sunday, Eric Allen and Amanda Vogt of the team's official site report.; Kingsley Jonathan (IR) — ir; VJ Payne (IR); Tre Brown (IR) — Brown (undisclosed) was placed on the Jets' injured reserve Sunday, Amanda Vogt and Eric Allen of the team's official site report.; Anez Cooper (IR-R) — The Jets placed Cooper (shoulder) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Al Iannazzone of Newsday reports.; Chip Trayanum (IR) — Trayanum (neck) was placed on injured reserve by the Jets on Sunday, Eric Allen & Amanda Vogt of the team's official website report.; Marcelino McCrary-Ball (IR) — ir; David Onyemata (IR) — Onyemata (groin) underwent core-muscle surgery Wednesday, Antwan V. Staley of the New York Daily News reports.; Arian Smith (IR) — Smith (knee) underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a torn ACL and will miss the rest of the season, Antwan V. Staley of the New York Daily News reports.; Breece Hall (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Quadricep); practice: Limited. Hall (quadriceps) is unlikely to suit up for Sunday's game against the Dolphins, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.; Dylan Parham (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Knee); practice: Limited. Parham (knee) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice.; Braiden McGregor (IR) — McGregor (pectoral) was placed on the Jets' injured reserve list Wednesday, Eric Allen of the team's official site reports.; Joseph Ossai (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Ankle); practice: DNP. Ossai (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Dolphins, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reports.; Kiko Mauigoa (IR) — The Jets placed Mauigoa (quadriceps) on injured reserve Saturday, Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic reports.; Kene Nwangwu (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Knee); practice: Full. Nwangwu (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Dolphins.; Max Mitchell (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Concussion); practice: DNP. Mitchell (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Dolphins, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reports.; Francisco Mauigoa (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Quadricep); practice: DNP.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Geno Smith is the projected starting quarterback for NYJ

    7.55 Y/A

    Through 6 games in 2026, Geno Smith threw for 1336 passing yards, completed 68.9% of his passes and averaged 7.55 yards per attempt. Last season over 15 games he threw for 3025 yards, completed 67.4% and averaged 6.75 yards per attempt, 19-17 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 7-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 6 games in.

  • Malik Willis is the projected starting quarterback for MIA

    6.53 Y/A

    Through 5 games in 2026, Malik Willis threw for 849 passing yards, completed 56.2% of his passes and averaged 6.53 yards per attempt. Last season over 4 games he threw for 422 yards, completed 85.7% and averaged 12.06 yards per attempt, 3-0 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 5 games in.

TRENCHES

  • MIA: 4.9 yards per rush attempt to NYJ's 3.58

    1.32 Y/C

    Miami averages 4.9 a carry over five games, up from 4.64, while the Jets have dropped to 3.58 from 4.53. The Jets' run game falling off that much over six games is a real concern. Miami can lean on the ground to control the game on the road. If the Jets fall behind, their run game won't help them climb back.

  • MIA: 126.6 rushing yards per game to NYJ's 94.5

    32.1 YPG

    Miami runs for 126.6 a game over 5 games, close to last season's 120.2. The Jets have fallen hard, from 123.3 last season to 94.5 over 6 games. Miami's number looks stable. The Jets' drop is the part that could move back up, but six games of it is more than a blip, so expect Miami to carry the ground game in New Jersey.

PASS RUSH

  • NYJ: 2.83 sacks recorded per game to MIA's 0.8

    2.03 SACKS

    The Jets are getting home almost three times a game over 6 games, while Miami's defense is under one sack a game across 5. That gap usually comes from a real pass rush on one side and a rush that rarely finishes on the other, though five or six games leaves room for movement. In Dolphins at Jets, the quarterback on the Miami side is the one more likely to be hurried, so sack props and drive killers lean toward New York's defense.

  • MIA: 16.2 sack yards lost per game to NYJ's 26.5

    10.3 YDS

    MIA is at 16.2 sack yards lost per game over 5 games; NYJ is at 26.5 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season MIA was at 19.5 over 17 games and NYJ at 24.9 over 17 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • NYJ: 20.3 points allowed per game to MIA's 26.4

    6.1 PPG

    MIA is at 26.4 points allowed per game over 5 games; NYJ is at 20.3 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season MIA was at 24.9 over 17 games and NYJ at 29.6 over 17 games.

  • MIA @ NYJ carries a 39.5 market total

    39.5

    Four points under the 43.5 slate median, the market sees a tighter, lower-scoring game here. Scoring is expected to come slowly, with defenses holding the upper hand. For the expectation to crack, one offense would need to hit early big plays and force the other to chase. A fast start from either side is the main threat to a total priced this low.

  • NYJ: 18.7 points per game to MIA's 14

    4.7 PPG

    MIA is at 14 points per game over 5 games; NYJ is at 18.7 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season MIA was at 20.4 over 17 games and NYJ at 17.6 over 17 games.

  • NYJ: 30:37 time of possession per game to MIA's 27:46

    2:51 TOP

    MIA is at 27:46 time of possession per game over 5 games; NYJ is at 30:37 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season MIA was at 28:57 over 17 games and NYJ at 28:15 over 17 games.

TURNOVERS

  • NYJ: 1.33 takeaways per game to MIA's 0.8

    0.53 TO

    MIA is at 0.8 takeaways per game over 5 games; NYJ is at 1.33 over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.

RED ZONE

  • NYJ: 50% red-zone scoring allowed to MIA's 63.6%

    13.6 PP

    MIA is at 63.6% red-zone scoring allowed over 5 games; NYJ is at 50% over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.

  • MIA: 46.2% red-zone scoring rate to NYJ's 37.5%

    8.7 PP

    MIA is at 46.2% red-zone scoring rate over 5 games; NYJ is at 37.5% over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season MIA was at 56.3% over 17 games and NYJ at 44.7% over 17 games.

MISMATCH

  • NYJ: 0.67 turnovers a game to MIA's 1.6

    0.67 VS 1.6

    The Jets commit 0.67 turnovers a game over six games, down from 1.35 last season, while Miami is at 1.6, up a bit from 1.41. Miami has to protect the ball against a team that rarely gives extra possessions. Turnover rates jump around, so the Jets' clean start may not last. Possession battles like this often decide close games.

COVERAGE

  • NYJ: 37.7% third downs allowed to MIA's 51.7%

    14.1 PP

    The Jets allow conversions on 37.7% of third downs over 6 games, while Miami gives up 51.7% across 5. Paired with the Jets' sack rate, that looks like a defense that gets off the field on obvious passing downs. For Dolphins at Jets, Miami drives are more likely to stall, while New York's offence should get more extended possessions.

  • NYJ: 4.68 yards per play allowed to MIA's 5.7

    1.02 Y/P

    The Jets let offences gain 4.68 yards on an average snap across 6 games, while Miami's defense has given up 5.7 over 5. A full yard per play is a wide gap between two units, and it shows up as drives that stall versus drives that keep moving. These samples are only a third of a season, and the sheet does not say who either side faced, so some of the gap may be schedule. For this game, the Jets defense is the steadier side to lean on when sizing up Miami's ability to string together drives.

  • NYJ: 185 passing yards allowed per game to MIA's 219.2

    34.2 YPG

    MIA is at 219.2 passing yards allowed per game over 5 games; NYJ is at 185 over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

  • MIA lead the series with NYJ since 2025

    2-0 SERIES

    Miami won both meetings last season, and they looked different. The Sep 29 game at home was a one-score finish at 27-21, while the Dec 7 trip to New York was a blowout, 34-10. That road win matters since this one is also at the Jets. Two games is a small sample, so use the Dec 7 result as one data point on how Miami travels to this building rather than proof the Jets cannot compete.

REPLACEMENT

  • Kiko Mauigoa (LB) is on injured reserve for NYJ

    IR

    The Jets put linebacker Kiko Mauigoa on injured reserve on Saturday with a quadriceps injury, reported Oct 24. That rules Mauigoa out against Miami. The report names no replacement, so the linebacker snaps go to whoever the Jets have active.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Kiko Mauigoa

    Out

    Quadricep · Did not practice · Out

  • Max Mitchell

    Out

    Concussion · Did not practice · Out

  • Reese Taylor

    Out

    Quadricep · Did not practice · Out

  • Joseph Ossai

    Out

    Ankle · Did not practice · Out

  • Robert Beal Jr.

    Doubtful

    Hamstring · Limited practice · Doubtful

  • Willie Gay Jr.

    Questionable

    Illness · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Kyle Louis

    Questionable

    Knee · Full practice · Questionable

  • Dylan Parham

    Questionable

    Knee · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Breece Hall

    Questionable

    Quadricep · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Kene Nwangwu

    Questionable

    Knee · Full practice · Questionable

  • Tucker Addington

    LP

    Limited practice

  • JuJu Brents

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jaylen Wright

    FP

    Full practice

  • Malik Willis

    FP

    Full practice

  • Adonai Mitchell

    FP

    Full practice

  • Will McDonald IV

    FP

    Full practice

  • T'Vondre Sweat

    FP

    Full practice

  • Demario Davis

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jonah Savaiinaea

    FP

    Full practice

  • Will Kacmarek

    FP

    Full practice

  • Harrison Phillips

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jordyn Brooks

    FP

    Full practice

  • Caleb Douglas

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jackson Woodard

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • MIA has 7 more days of rest

    14d vs 7d

    Miami comes off the bye with 14 days to rest and prepare, and the Jets are on a standard week. The Dolphins get the healthier body and the extra film time, though they also have to travel for this one. Rest helps most when a team was banged up going into the break, so check the injury report before giving it much weight.

  • MIA (0-5) at NYJ (2-4), a division game

    +52 PT GAP

    Miami has lost all five games by a combined 62 points and is 0-3 away from home, so this is a team without a single good result to point to. The Jets sit at 2-4 and -10, which means most of their losses have been close, and they are 1-1 at home. Division games tend to tighten up, but nothing on Miami's sheet suggests the slide is about to stop. The cleaner question for a bettor is whether the Jets can win by margin, since their own point total shows a team that plays tight games.

  • MIA: 52 penalty yards per game to NYJ's 74.5

    22.5 YDS

    MIA is at 52 penalty yards per game over 5 games; NYJ is at 74.5 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season MIA was at 47.7 over 17 games and NYJ at 53.5 over 17 games.

  • MIA: 41.3% third-down conversion rate to NYJ's 35.1%

    6.2 PP

    MIA is at 41.3% third-down conversion rate over 5 games; NYJ is at 35.1% over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season MIA was at 34.9% over 17 games and NYJ at 34.9% over 17 games.

STREAK

  • MIA has lost 5 straight

    L5

    MIA has lost every game this season, 0-5, and goes on the road to NYJ. Five straight losses usually means real problems, though the sheet doesn't say how close those games were or who they came against. Winless teams tend to get priced as worse than they are, since the market leans on the record. That is the spot to think about here: whether MIA is as bad as 0-5 says, or just as bad as the number implies.

AFTER GARY

  • MIA +3.5 → +3.5

    GARY +0.24PP

    Gary's number was 3.5; the same book now shows 3.5.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 22, 2026 at 4:21 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    MALIK WASHINGTONRECEIVING YARDS OVER 40.5
    NFLMiami Dolphins· -113

    Malik Washington
    Receiving Yards over 40.5

    -113 · LOST · ACTUAL 27

    Miami Dolphins

    Malik Washington is the one Dolphins receiver whose role doesn't move. He draws more of Malik Willis's targets than anyone on the roster and plays the bulk of the snaps. Miami also manufactures touches for him on handoffs and quick throws. His yardage has stayed in a tight band, from the low 40s to the high 60s. That held even in Minnesota, when Willis threw for 85 yards total and Washington caught 67 of them.

    That tells you where the ball goes when the passing game is short and safe, and short and safe is what Miami wants today. Willis is coming off a thumb issue on his throwing hand and the Dolphins want to lean on the run. The throws that do come should mostly be quick hitters underneath, and Washington is the target on those. Wide receivers have piled up catches and yards against this Jets defense all year. With Joseph Ossai out, the pass rush is thinner, which buys Willis a beat to find his first read.

    What beats it: Caleb Douglas back in the lineup. He drew real volume in the two games he played, and if he takes over the intermediate looks, Washington's share gets trimmed. An early Willis giveaway that leaves Miami with few possessions would also cap the volume. At this number, I'll take the over.

  • GARY'S PICK
    OLLIE GORDON IIRUSHING YARDS OVER 57.5
    NFLMiami Dolphins· -113

    Ollie Gordon II
    Rushing Yards over 57.5

    -113 · CASHED · ACTUAL 103

    Miami Dolphins

    With De'Von Achane on IR, Ollie Gordon II is the back in Miami's plan, and the plan is to run. He has been the lead back since Achane went down. He got 17 and 18 carries in the two games where Miami ran a normal number of plays. The Minnesota game had only 39 offensive snaps and he still went for 100 yards on nine carries. Miami's ground game has improved every week, and the team comes out of a bye with two weeks to sharpen it.

    The matchup is right. The Jets have been gashed on the ground lately, giving up 232 rushing yards to Chicago and 148 to New England. They are thinner now than in either of those games: Joseph Ossai is out, linebacker Mauigoa is out, and David Onyemata is on IR. Willis as a runner also changes things for a defense. When linebackers have to account for the quarterback on the edge, they leave interior lanes for the back. Gordon also gets the work at the goal line, so the carries don't leak away when Miami gets close.

    I see this as a one-score game, which keeps Miami running its plan into the fourth quarter. What beats it: the Jets jump out early and Miami has to throw, or Willis keeps the ball on the read plays and eats into Gordon's yardage. Jaylen Wright's handful of carries is a small leak. Over 57.5.

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