Indianapolis Colts picks

The Jaguars haven't played in Jacksonville since September 27. They come home off a bye to face a 2-5 Colts team that arrives without Quenton Nelson or DeForest Buckner. Nelson played 100% of snaps at left guard. Jalen Farmer, who has played offensive snaps once all season, takes over. That's a problem in front of Daniel Jones, who has been sacked 10 times in the last two games and threw for 108 yards at Minnesota. Indy wants to lean on Jonathan Taylor, but this Jacksonville front held Cincinnati to 23 rushing yards and Philadelphia to 22. If the run stalls, Jones is throwing on long downs behind a patched line. The Colts already have 12 giveaways against 3 takeaways. Jacksonville is +5. The other side of the ball is worse for Indy. Justin Walley, the Colts' most-targeted defender, is out. Cam Taylor-Britt is on IR. That leaves the nickel to Kapena Gushiken, who has played real defense once this year. Trevor Lawrence spreads the ball around: Parker Washington, Brenton Strange, and Travis Hunter if Jakobi Meyers sits. This Colts defense gave up 41, 33 and 34 to the good quarterbacks on its schedule. At home, Jacksonville beat Cleveland 34-10 and New England 35-6. Season point differential: Jaguars +50, Colts -26. And the only team Tennessee has beaten is Indianapolis. The risks are real. Indy has won time of possession in six of seven games, which shortens games, and three of its five losses landed inside this number. Tyler Warren is back after catching 30 of 36 targets. Meyers didn't practice Saturday, and Josh Hines-Allen was limited. A Thursday trip to Baltimore could mean starters sit if this gets out of hand. At -105, I'll lay it. Get -10 if a book offers it; at -11.5 or worse, pass.