Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers

Injuries noted

Indianapolis Colts: Cameron Mitchell (IR) — ir; Will Mallory (IR-R) — Mallory (thumb) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Steelers.; D.J. Montgomery (IR) — Montgomery (abdomen) was placed on injured reserve by the Colts on Sunday, JJ Stankevitz of the team's official website reports.; Carson Towt (IR) — ir; Alec Pierce (IR) — Colts head coach Shane Steichen reiterated Monday that Pierce didn't undergo surgery on his left heel and is continuing to rehab the injury, James Boyd of The Athletic reports.; Ashton Dulin (Out) — Dulin (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Steelers.; Micheal Clemons (IR) — Clemons (toe) was placed on injured reserve by the Colts on Tuesday.; Charvarius Ward (Questionable) — Ward (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Steelers.; Keenan Allen (Questionable) — Allen (groin) is expected to play Sunday against the Steelers, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reports.; Arden Key (IR) — The Colts placed Key (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday.; Jaylon Carlies (Out) — Carlies (ribs) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Steelers.; Darius Slayton (Out) — Slayton (knee) has been downgraded to out for Sunday's game against the Steelers.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Daequan Hardy (IR) — Hardy (undisclosed) reverted to Pittsburgh's injured reserve Tuesday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Cole Burgess (IR) — ir; Logan Lee (IR) — ir; Jack Driscoll (IR-R) — The Steelers placed Driscoll (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday with a designation to return, Teresa Varley of the team's official site reports.; DeShon Elliott (IR-R) — Elliott (knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts, Mark Kaboly of 93.7 The Fan Pittsburgh reports.; Gennings Dunker (IR) — The Steelers placed Dunker (knee) on injured reserve Saturday, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.; Michael Pittman Jr. (IR) — The Steelers placed Pittman (foot) on injured reserve Saturday.; Rico Dowdle (Questionable) — Dowdle (toe) is unlikely to play in Sunday's game against the Colts, but the Steelers will make a final decision after pregame warmups, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; Jamel Dean (Out) — Dean (ankle) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts, Mark Kaboly of 93.7 The Fan Pittsburgh reports.; Jalen Ramsey (Questionable) — Ramsey (wrist) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts, Mark Kaboly of 93.7 The Fan Pittsburgh reports.; Derrick Harmon (IR) — The Steelers placed Harmon (foot) on injured reserve Monday, Teresa Varley of the team's official site reports.

QUARTERBACK

• Daniel Jones is the projected starting quarterback for IND

  5.71 Y/A

  Through 4 games in 2026, Daniel Jones threw for 754 passing yards, completed 63.6% of his passes and averaged 5.71 yards per attempt. Last season over 13 games he threw for 3101 yards, completed 68% and averaged 8.08 yards per attempt, 19-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 3-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.

• Aaron Rodgers is the projected starting quarterback for PIT

  6.53 Y/A

  Through 4 games in 2026, Aaron Rodgers threw for 999 passing yards, completed 57.5% of his passes and averaged 6.53 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3322 yards, completed 65.7% and averaged 6.67 yards per attempt, 24-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 7-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.

TRENCHES

• PIT: 112.8 rushing yards allowed per game to IND's 131

  18.3 YPG

  IND is at 131 rushing yards allowed per game over 4 games; PIT is at 112.8 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 10.

PASS RUSH

• IND: 13.8 sack yards lost per game to PIT's 26.8

  13 YDS

  Pittsburgh's quarterback is losing 26.8 yards a game to sacks, nearly double last season's 14.8. Indianapolis at 13.8 is close to its 15.1 from last season. Pittsburgh's jump comes from 4 games and big sack losses can swing on a couple of bad afternoons, so it should come down some. For now, Indy's pass rush has a real chance to put Pittsburgh in long down-and-distance spots.

• IND: 2 sacks taken per game to PIT's 3.25

  1.25 SACKS

  IND is at 2 sacks taken per game over 4 games; PIT is at 3.25 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season IND was at 2.07 over 17 games and PIT at 2.38 over 17 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

• IND: 25.5 points per game to PIT's 19.3

  6.3 PPG

  IND is at 25.5 points per game over 4 games; PIT is at 19.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season IND was at 27.4 over 17 games and PIT at 23.4 over 17 games.

• PIT: 21.8 points allowed per game to IND's 26

  4.3 PPG

  IND is at 26 points allowed per game over 4 games; PIT is at 21.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season IND was at 24.2 over 17 games and PIT at 22.8 over 17 games.

TURNOVERS

• PIT: 2 takeaways per game to IND's 0.5

  1.5 TO

  Pittsburgh is forcing 2 turnovers a game over four games, while Indianapolis has just 0.5. Takeaways are among the noisiest numbers in football, and four games is not much to go on, so both are likely to move toward average. Pittsburgh at home has the better ball-hawking start. Weigh it lightly next to steadier stats when sizing up this game.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

• PIT: 5.05 yards per play to IND's 4.5

  0.55 Y/P

  This gap is mostly about Indianapolis falling off: 4.5 yards per play over 4 games after 5.77 last season, with just 1 play of 20 or more yards in its last game. Pittsburgh had 6 last time, with Aaron Rodgers hitting Roman Wilson for 49 and DK Metcalf twice. A drop that steep over 4 games is more likely to drift back up than hold, but if Daniel Jones can't stretch the field, Pittsburgh's deep passing dictates how this one plays.

RED ZONE

• IND: 75% red-zone scoring rate to PIT's 44.4%

  30.6 PP

  Indianapolis finishes 75% of its red-zone trips with a touchdown, and Pittsburgh is under half at 44.4% through 4 games. Indianapolis was already good there last season at 65.2%, while Pittsburgh was at 58.8%, so the Steelers' dip is the likelier number to recover. Red-zone rates swing on a few snaps over 4 games. If Pittsburgh keeps settling for field goals at home, that shapes how a close total plays out.

• IND: 3 red-zone trips per game to PIT's 2.25

  0.75 TRIPS

  IND is at 3 red-zone trips per game over 4 games; PIT is at 2.25 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season IND was at 3.88 over 17 games and PIT at 3 over 17 games.

MISMATCH

• IND: 2 sacks taken a game to PIT's 3.25

  2 VS 3.25

  Pittsburgh is taking 3.25 sacks a game to Indianapolis's 2 over 4 games. Indianapolis matches last season's 2.07, while Pittsburgh is up from 2.38, so the Steelers' protection is the number that has slipped. Some of that should come back toward last year. Pittsburgh has to get the ball out quickly at home, because drive-killing sacks are how this gap shows up in the score.

COVERAGE

• PIT: 209.5 passing yards allowed per game to IND's 261.3

  51.8 YPG

  Pittsburgh is allowing 209.5 passing yards a game, while Indianapolis is giving up 261.3, both over four games. The sheet does not say who either faced, and four games leaves room for a single big passing day to tilt the average. For this game, the Steelers secondary has been the tighter unit, and the Colts may need to lean less on the pass than they would like.

• IND: 29.2% third downs allowed to PIT's 34.8%

  5.6 PP

  Indianapolis lets opponents convert 29.2% of third downs, Pittsburgh 34.8%, both across four games. Who they faced isn't on the sheet, and third-down rates tend to drift as the sample grows. Four games is small. Indianapolis getting off the field more often is the number to weigh at Pittsburgh in a game expected to hinge on sustained drives.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

• PIT lead the series with IND since 2025

  1-0 SERIES

  The only meeting was Nov 2 last season, a 27-20 Pittsburgh win at home over Indianapolis. A seven-point game is one score, so this matchup has been competitive, and with a single game from last season the result carries little weight now. Judge this one on how both teams are playing this season more than on that result.

REPLACEMENT

• Will Mallory (TE) is ir-r for IND

  IR-R

  Mallory's thumb keeps him out against Pittsburgh, and he's still on the return track from injured reserve. Indianapolis plays the Steelers a tight end short, with the sheet naming no replacement.

• Michael Pittman Jr. (WR) is on injured reserve for PIT

  IR

  Pittsburgh put Pittman on injured reserve Saturday with a foot injury, so he misses Sunday against Indianapolis and more beyond it. The Steelers' remaining receivers absorb his targets, which is the angle to consider on their passing props.

• DeShon Elliott (S) is ir-r for PIT

  IR-R

  DeShon Elliott is on Pittsburgh's designated-to-return list but has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Colts with a knee injury, per an Oct 9 report. Elliott stays off the field until the Steelers activate the safety from IR. Pittsburgh's back end is down a safety against Indianapolis, a detail to weigh on Colts passing lines.

• Alec Pierce (WR) is on injured reserve for IND

  IR

  Alec Pierce remains on injured reserve with a left heel injury, and Colts coach Shane Steichen said Monday that Pierce did not have surgery and is rehabbing, per a Sep 28 report. No surgery leaves a path back this season, though Pierce is still on IR for this trip to Pittsburgh. Indianapolis' receiver targets go elsewhere until Pierce is activated.

• Arden Key (DE) is on injured reserve for IND

  IR

  The Colts placed Arden Key on injured reserve Saturday with a hamstring injury, per an Oct 10 report. Key misses Sunday's game at Pittsburgh and at least a few more. Indianapolis is down an edge rusher against the Steelers, worth factoring into how clean a pocket Pittsburgh's quarterback gets.

• Derrick Harmon (DT) is on injured reserve for PIT

  IR

  The Steelers placed Derrick Harmon on injured reserve Monday with a foot injury, per an Oct 5 report. Harmon misses Sunday's home game against the Colts and at least several more. Pittsburgh's defensive tackle group is short, along with safety DeShon Elliott also being out, which matters for how the Steelers hold up against Indianapolis' offense.

PRACTICE REPORT

• Jaylon Carlies

  Out

  Ribs · Did not practice · Out

• Jamel Dean

  Out

  Ankle · Did not practice · Out

• Ashton Dulin

  Out

  Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

• Keenan Allen

  Questionable

  Not injury related - resting player, Groin · Full practice · Questionable

• Darius Slayton

  Questionable

  Knee · Limited practice · Questionable

• Rico Dowdle

  Questionable

  Toe · Limited practice · Questionable

• Charvarius Ward

  Questionable

  Not injury related - resting player, Groin · Full practice · Questionable

• Jalen Ramsey

  Questionable

  Wrist · Limited practice · Questionable

• DeForest Buckner

  DNP

  Did not practice

• Grover Stewart

  FP

  Full practice

• Tanor Bortolini

  FP

  Full practice

• Akeem Davis-Gaither

  FP

  Full practice

• Jonathan Taylor

  FP

  Full practice

• Cameron Heyward

  FP

  Full practice

SITUATIONAL

• IND: 83.3% fourth-down conversion rate to PIT's 33.3%

  50 PP

  IND is at 83.3% fourth-down conversion rate over 4 games; PIT is at 33.3% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season IND was at 66.7% over 17 games and PIT at 52.2% over 17 games.

• IND: 26.3 penalty yards per game to PIT's 49.5

  23.3 YDS

  IND is at 26.3 penalty yards per game over 4 games; PIT is at 49.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season IND was at 51.2 over 17 games and PIT at 47.2 over 17 games.

• PIT has 3 more days of rest

  7d vs 10d

  Pittsburgh is at home off a bye with 10 days of rest, and Indianapolis comes in on a standard 7-day week with a road trip on top. A team off the bye gets extra time to rest sore players and install wrinkles the opponent hasn't seen on film. That pairing of home field and extra rest is the friendlier spot on the schedule. Factor it in as a modest edge for Pittsburgh, and check how much of it the number already reflects.

• IND: 1.5 fourth-down attempts per game to PIT's 0.75

  0.75 ATT/G

  IND is at 1.5 fourth-down attempts per game over 4 games; PIT is at 0.75 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season IND was at 1.59 over 17 games and PIT at 1.35 over 17 games.

• IND: 37.7% third-down conversion rate to PIT's 32%

  5.7 PP

  IND is at 37.7% third-down conversion rate over 4 games; PIT is at 32% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season IND was at 42.6% over 17 games and PIT at 40% over 17 games.

• IND (2-2) at PIT (2-2)

  -8 PT GAP

  Both sit at 2-2 with slight negative margins, Indianapolis at -2 and Pittsburgh at -10. The Colts have won 2 straight, while the Steelers are 2-0 at home and lost last time out. Two home games is a small sample, but it's the clearest split on the board. This is an even spot where home field carries more weight than either team's momentum.

AFTER GARY

• PIT -2.5 → -2.5

  GARY +1.47PP

  Gary's number was -2.5; the same book now shows -2.5.