Skip to content
GARY A.I.Get the app
NFL · Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

O/U 43.5 · SPREAD Indianapolis Colts -6.5 · Lucas Oil Stadium

GARY'S PICK
Titans +6.5
NFL@ Colts· -115

Titans
+6.5

-115 · CASHED · TEN 26 · IND 20

Colts

The pick & result

Published pick
Tennessee Titans +6.5 -115
Published odds
-115
Result
Won
Final score
26-20

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETRIVERS · 58 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 11 11:41 PM
Close
Oct 18 12:51 PM
Move
SPREADIndianapolis Colts -6.5 (-115)Indianapolis Colts -5.5 (-110)−1
TOTAL43.5 (-109)43.5 (-114)Price
MONEYLINEIndianapolis Colts -315Indianapolis Colts -286+29
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 11 11:41 PMIndianapolis Colts -6.5 (-115)43.5 (-109)Indianapolis Colts -315 · Tennessee Titans +250
Oct 12 3:34 PMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-106)43.5 (-114)Indianapolis Colts -335 · Tennessee Titans +260
Oct 13 8:00 AMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-114)44 (-106)Indianapolis Colts -335 · Tennessee Titans +260
Oct 13 9:00 AMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-114)44.5 (-107)Indianapolis Colts -335 · Tennessee Titans +260
Oct 13 10:01 AMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-118)44.5 (-107)Indianapolis Colts -335 · Tennessee Titans +260
Oct 13 1:02 PMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-109)43.5 (-114)Indianapolis Colts -360 · Tennessee Titans +270
Oct 13 2:02 PMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-109)43.5 (-113)Indianapolis Colts -360 · Tennessee Titans +270
Oct 13 3:02 PMIndianapolis Colts -6.5 (-120)43.5 (-113)Indianapolis Colts -345 · Tennessee Titans +260
Oct 13 4:32 PMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-109)43.5 (-114)Indianapolis Colts -335 · Tennessee Titans +250
Oct 14 11:32 AMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-112)44.5 (-105)Indianapolis Colts -335 · Tennessee Titans +255
Oct 14 12:34 PMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-108)44.5 (-108)Indianapolis Colts -335 · Tennessee Titans +255
Oct 14 1:34 PMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-117)45.5 (-113)Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +280
Oct 14 2:34 PMIndianapolis Colts -7.5 (-104)44.5 (-108)Indianapolis Colts -385 · Tennessee Titans +285
Oct 14 5:25 PMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-107)44.5 (-108)Indianapolis Colts -335 · Tennessee Titans +255
Oct 14 9:08 PMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-108)44.5 (-109)Indianapolis Colts -335 · Tennessee Titans +255
Oct 15 6:00 AMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-110)44.5 (-109)Indianapolis Colts -345 · Tennessee Titans +260
Oct 15 6:30 AMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-108)44.5 (-107)Indianapolis Colts -335 · Tennessee Titans +260
Oct 15 7:00 AMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-108)44.5 (-115)Indianapolis Colts -335 · Tennessee Titans +260
Oct 15 8:01 AMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-107)44.5 (-108)Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +275
Oct 15 8:32 AMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-108)44.5 (-106)Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +280
Oct 15 9:00 AMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-108)44.5 (-107)Indianapolis Colts -385 · Tennessee Titans +285
Oct 15 10:31 AMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-107)43.5 (-114)Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +275
Oct 15 11:01 AMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-107)43.5 (-115)Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +275
Oct 15 11:31 AMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-107)44.5 (-113)Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +280
Oct 15 12:01 PMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-106)44.5 (-113)Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +280
Oct 15 5:03 PMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-105)44.5 (-112)Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +275
Oct 15 5:59 PMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-115)44.5 (-113)Indianapolis Colts -420 · Tennessee Titans +300
Oct 15 6:42 PMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-114)44.5 (-114)Indianapolis Colts -420 · Tennessee Titans +300
Oct 15 7:13 PMIndianapolis Colts -6.5 (-117)44.5 (-114)Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +275
Oct 16 11:01 AMIndianapolis Colts -6.5 (-117)44.5 (-114)Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +275
Oct 16 12:02 PMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-105)44.5 (-109)Indianapolis Colts -385 · Tennessee Titans +285
Oct 16 1:02 PMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-106)44.5 (-113)Indianapolis Colts -385 · Tennessee Titans +285
Oct 16 2:02 PMIndianapolis Colts -6.5 (-118)44.5 (-109)Indianapolis Colts -360 · Tennessee Titans +275
Oct 16 3:02 PMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-105)44.5 (-117)Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +280
Oct 16 4:02 PMIndianapolis Colts -6.5 (-113)44.5 (-108)Indianapolis Colts -345 · Tennessee Titans +265
Oct 16 5:02 PMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-105)44.5 (-108)Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +280
Oct 17 5:00 AMIndianapolis Colts -6.5 (-113)44.5 (-115)Indianapolis Colts -360 · Tennessee Titans +265
Oct 17 12:02 PMIndianapolis Colts -6.5 (-113)44.5 (-112)Indianapolis Colts -345 · Tennessee Titans +265
Oct 17 12:32 PMIndianapolis Colts -6.5 (-112)44.5 (-113)Indianapolis Colts -345 · Tennessee Titans +260
Oct 17 2:03 PMIndianapolis Colts -6.5 (-110)44.5 (-113)Indianapolis Colts -335 · Tennessee Titans +255
Oct 17 5:33 PMIndianapolis Colts -6.5 (-117)44.5 (-113)Indianapolis Colts -360 · Tennessee Titans +270
Oct 17 7:33 PMIndianapolis Colts -6.5 (-117)44.5 (-112)Indianapolis Colts -360 · Tennessee Titans +270
Oct 17 8:03 PMIndianapolis Colts -6.5 (-117)44.5 (-113)Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +275
Oct 17 8:33 PMIndianapolis Colts -6.5 (-115)44.5 (-112)Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +275
Oct 17 10:04 PMIndianapolis Colts -6.5 (-113)44.5 (-105)Indianapolis Colts -345 · Tennessee Titans +265
Oct 17 11:04 PMIndianapolis Colts -6.5 (-113)44.5 (-108)Indianapolis Colts -345 · Tennessee Titans +265
Oct 18 6:00 AMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-109)44.5 (-108)Indianapolis Colts -385 · Tennessee Titans +290
Oct 18 6:30 AMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-113)44.5 (-114)Indianapolis Colts -400 · Tennessee Titans +295
Oct 18 6:41 AMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-112)44.5 (-114)Indianapolis Colts -400 · Tennessee Titans +295
Oct 18 7:11 AMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-112)44.5 (-108)Indianapolis Colts -400 · Tennessee Titans +295
Oct 18 7:21 AMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-106)44.5 (-108)Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +280
Oct 18 7:31 AMIndianapolis Colts -6.5 (-118)44.5 (-108)Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +275
Oct 18 8:01 AMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-109)44.5 (-108)Indianapolis Colts -385 · Tennessee Titans +290
Oct 18 8:21 AMIndianapolis Colts -6.5 (-118)44.5 (-108)Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +275
Oct 18 8:41 AMIndianapolis Colts -7 (-114)44.5 (-108)Indianapolis Colts -420 · Tennessee Titans +300
Oct 18 8:51 AMIndianapolis Colts -6.5 (-110)44.5 (-107)Indianapolis Colts -345 · Tennessee Titans +260
Oct 18 12:13 PMIndianapolis Colts -6.5 (-109)43.5 (-114)Indianapolis Colts -335 · Tennessee Titans +255
Oct 18 12:21 PMIndianapolis Colts -6 (-112)43.5 (-114)Indianapolis Colts -315 · Tennessee Titans +240
CLOSEOct 18 12:51 PMIndianapolis Colts -5.5 (-110)43.5 (-114)Indianapolis Colts -286 · Tennessee Titans +220

The read

Two AFC South teams looking for traction meet under the roof at Lucas Oil Stadium. The 0-5 Titans are coming off a 3-26 home loss to a Texans team that hadn't won all year. The 2-3 Colts are coming off a 22-34 loss in Pittsburgh. This number asks Indianapolis to win by more than a touchdown, and that's more than this Colts team has shown it can do.

That Houston blowout is the game everyone remembers, and it's pushing this line. The rest of Tennessee's season tells a different story. The Titans' losses to the Eagles (20-24), Giants (7-12) and Ravens (18-24) would all have covered this number.

Indianapolis scores 24.8 points a game, but that hides a team ranked 31st in yards per play on offense and 30th in yards per play allowed on defense. The Colts beat Houston on a last-second field goal and handled Washington in London on 4.3 yards per play. That's not a team that pulls away.

The Colts' passing game is also as thin as it's been all year. Tyler Warren is inactive, joining Alec Pierce and Ashton Dulin on the sideline. Daniel Jones has 25 rushing yards on 14 carries and no longer escapes pressure. That leaves Josh Downs, Laquon Treadwell and a tight end just back from injured reserve. Tennessee's defense ranks 11th in both yards per play allowed and points allowed, so it can sit on Jonathan Taylor and make Indy settle for field goals.

The risks are real. DeForest Buckner (4 sacks, 8 QB hits) against Tennessee's interior line is the matchup most likely to sink this pick. Houston sacked Cam Ward 4 times last week, and the league's worst scoring offense went dry. Indy's kicker is a perfect 16/16, including 6/6 from 50+, while Tennessee is 0/1 from that range. That's how a close game turns into a margin. Ward has also thrown an interception in each of the Giants, Ravens and Texans games.

I'm not calling an upset. I expect a division grind that Indianapolis wins more often than not, usually by less than a touchdown. The hook works against the Titans here, since a Colts win by exactly a touchdown loses. Treat this as a value play, not a lock. Take the points.

Injuries noted

Tennessee Titans: Jaylen Harrell (IR) — ir; Jaren Kanak (IR) — ir; Kendell Brooks (IR) — Brooks (undisclosed) reverted to Tennessee's injured reserve Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Milo Eifler (IR) — ir; Tanoh Kpassagnon (IR) — The Titans placed Kpassagnon (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports.; Dorian Mausi (IR-R) — The Titans placed Mausi (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday with a designation to return, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports.; Fernando Carmona (IR) — The Titans placed Carmona (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports.; Jackson Slater (IR) — The Titans placed Slater (foot) on injured reserve Tuesday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports.; Kevin Winston Jr. (Out) — inactive; Tyjae Spears (Questionable) — Spears (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Colts.; Jordan Elliott (Out) — inactive; Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson (Out) — inactive; Kylen Granson (Out) — Granson (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Colts.; Nicholas Singleton (Out) — Singleton (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Colts.; Jackie Marshall (Out) — inactive; Alontae Taylor (Out) — Taylor (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Colts, Paul Kuharsky of PaulKuharsky.com reports.; Joshua Williams (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 6: Questionable (Pectoral); practice: Full.

Indianapolis Colts: Cameron Mitchell (IR) — ir; D.J. Montgomery (IR) — Montgomery (abdomen) was placed on injured reserve by the Colts on Sunday, JJ Stankevitz of the team's official website reports.; Carson Towt (IR) — ir; Alec Pierce (IR) — Pierce was spotted without a cast on his left ankle/heel Wednesday, James Boyd of The Athletic reports.; Ashton Dulin (Out) — inactive; Micheal Clemons (IR) — Clemons (toe) was placed on injured reserve by the Colts on Tuesday.; Arden Key (IR) — The Colts placed Key (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday.; Jaylon Carlies (Out) — inactive; Tyler Warren (Out) — Warren (groin) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Titans.; Riley Leonard (Out) — Leonard (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Colts' emergency third quarterback against the Titans on Sunday.; Dalton Tucker (Out) — inactive

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Daniel Jones is the projected starting quarterback for IND

    5.8 Y/A

    Through 5 games in 2026, Daniel Jones threw for 1021 passing yards, completed 61.4% of his passes and averaged 5.8 yards per attempt. Last season over 13 games he threw for 3101 yards, completed 68% and averaged 8.08 yards per attempt, 19-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 3-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 5 games in.

  • Cam Ward is the projected starting quarterback for TEN

    5.78 Y/A

    Through 5 games in 2026, Cam Ward threw for 896 passing yards, completed 63.2% of his passes and averaged 5.78 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3169 yards, completed 59.8% and averaged 5.87 yards per attempt, 15-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 3-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 5 games in.

TRENCHES

  • IND: 100.8 rushing yards per game to TEN's 82.6

    18.2 YPG

    TEN is at 82.6 rushing yards per game over 5 games; IND is at 100.8 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 17. Last season TEN was at 93.5 over 17 games and IND at 118.1 over 17 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • IND: 24.8 points per game to TEN's 11.6

    13.2 PPG

    Tennessee is scoring 11.6 points a game, down from 16.7 last season, while Indianapolis sits a bit below last year's 27.4. Over five games the Titans' drop is real, but some of that is the schedule they've faced, so a little rebound is plausible. The Colts should be the team setting the tempo at home. Think about Tennessee's team total more than the side, since their scoring has been the steadier signal.

  • IND: 31:07 time of possession per game to TEN's 24:31

    6:35 TOP

    Indianapolis holds the ball for 31:07 a game, up from 29:37 last season, while Tennessee is down to 24:31 from 29:08. Five games with that big a swing for the Titans means their drives are short and they are on the field defensively a lot. Indy should control the clock and the tempo here, which tends to shorten the game and limits Tennessee's possessions.

  • IND: 64.4 offensive plays per game to TEN's 54.6

    9.8 PLAYS

    TEN is at 54.6 offensive plays per game over 5 games; IND is at 64.4 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 17. Last season TEN was at 59.1 over 17 games and IND at 59.9 over 17 games.

  • TEN: 21.8 points allowed per game to IND's 27.6

    5.8 PPG

    TEN is at 21.8 points allowed per game over 5 games; IND is at 27.6 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 17. Last season TEN was at 28.1 over 17 games and IND at 24.2 over 17 games.

RED ZONE

  • IND: 66.7% red-zone scoring rate to TEN's 46.2%

    20.5 PP

    Indianapolis is scoring touchdowns on 66.7% of red-zone trips, right in line with last season's 65.2%, so that looks stable. Tennessee has fallen to 46.2% from 57.6% last season over five games, and red-zone rates swing a lot on a handful of trips. Expect Tennessee to drift back up some. In this game, the Titans settling for field goals is the gap that could decide a spread.

MISMATCH

  • IND: 31:07 of possession a game to TEN's 24:31

    31:07 VS 24:31

    Indianapolis has held the ball 31:07 a game over 5 games while Tennessee sits at 24:31. Last season the two were close, 29:37 for the Colts and 29:08 for the Titans, so Tennessee's dip is the outlier. Possession time follows game script, and through 5 games Tennessee has been on the field defending a lot. At Indianapolis, expect the Colts to control the clock unless the Titans can sustain drives like last season.

COVERAGE

  • TEN: 5.22 yards per play allowed to IND's 6.14

    0.92 Y/P

    Tennessee allows 5.22 yards every snap through 5 games, a stingier rate than Indianapolis at 6.14. Indy giving up over six a play is a lot of easy yardage, and five games is enough to take it seriously, though the sheet doesn't show who they faced. In this game, the Colts defense looks like the softer unit, which matters for how efficiently Tennessee can move the ball.

  • IND: 30.5% third downs allowed to TEN's 38.5%

    8 PP

    Indianapolis lets opponents move the chains on fewer than a third of their third downs, while Tennessee gives up conversions closer to four in ten. Five games is a real start but not a full picture, and the sheet does not show who each defense faced, so some of that gap could be schedule. If it holds at home, Tennessee's drives are more likely to stall, which matters for how you think about the Titans' scoring in this spot.

  • TEN: 217.8 passing yards allowed per game to IND's 254

    36.2 YPG

    TEN is at 217.8 passing yards allowed per game over 5 games; IND is at 254 over 5 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 17.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

  • IND lead the series with TEN since 2025

    2-0 SERIES

    Indianapolis has won both meetings since last season, and neither was close: 41-20 at Tennessee on Sep 21, then 38-14 at home on Oct 26. That is two blowouts with Indianapolis scoring 38 or more each time. Two games is a small sample, and nothing on the sheet says what has changed for either roster since. For this spot, the question is whether Tennessee can keep it within a score, because last season it never did.

REPLACEMENT

  • Alec Pierce (WR) is on injured reserve for IND

    IR

    Alec Pierce is on injured reserve with a left ankle and heel injury, and he was seen without a cast Wednesday. That is a step toward recovery, though he remains out against Tennessee. Colts receivers already active keep his targets for now.

  • Arden Key (DE) is on injured reserve for IND

    IR

    The Colts put Key on IR with a hamstring injury, reported Oct 10, so he misses this game against Tennessee. IR means he cannot play until he is eligible to return. The facts here do not name who replaces him on the edge.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Kevin Winston Jr.

    Out

    Quadricep · Did not practice · Out

  • Jaylon Carlies

    Out

    Ribs · Did not practice · Out

  • Jordan Elliott

    Out

    Not injury related - personal matter · Did not practice · Out

  • Ashton Dulin

    Out

    Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

  • Joshua Williams

    Questionable

    Pectoral · Full practice · Questionable

  • Tyler Warren

    Questionable

    Groin · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Tyjae Spears

    Questionable

    Knee · Full practice · Questionable

  • DeForest Buckner

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • Jalen Travis

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Matt Goncalves

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Jaylahn Tuimoloau

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Will Mallory

    FP

    Full practice

  • Josh Downs

    FP

    Full practice

  • Tony Pollard

    FP

    Full practice

  • David Martin-Robinson

    FP

    Full practice

  • John Franklin-Myers

    FP

    Full practice

  • Marcus Harris

    FP

    Full practice

  • Cor'Dale Flott

    FP

    Full practice

  • Daniel Jones

    FP

    Full practice

  • Grover Stewart

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jonathan Taylor

    FP

    Full practice

  • Keenan Allen

    FP

    Full practice

  • Charvarius Ward

    FP

    Full practice

  • Amani Hooker

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • TEN (0-5) at IND (2-3), a division game

    +37 PT GAP

    Tennessee is 0-5 with a -51 point differential, so the losing streak reflects how lopsided the games have been. Indianapolis at 2-3 and -14 is a modest team, 1-1 at home. Both point differentials back up the records, so neither looks out of place. The useful frame is one struggling team at home against a winless one that has been beaten soundly, in a division game where familiarity can tighten things.

STREAK

  • TEN has lost 5 straight

    L5

    Tennessee has lost every game this season, five in a row. Five games is enough to say the team is struggling, but the sheet doesn't show who they lost to or by how much, so it can't separate a bad roster from a tough early schedule. Winless teams often get marked down hard by the market, so the useful question against Indianapolis is whether the number already prices in all five losses.

TEAM RECORD

  • AFC SOUTH game: TEN 0-1, IND 1-0 in the division

    DIVISION

    Each team has played one AFC South game: Indianapolis won theirs, Tennessee lost theirs. One division game apiece says very little on its own. The broader season form matters more than this split for this matchup.

AFTER GARY

  • TEN +6.5 → +6.5

    NO MOVE

    Gary's number was 6.5; the same book now shows 6.5.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 15, 2026 at 5:20 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    CAM WARDPASSING YARDS UNDER 202.5
    NFLTennessee Titans· -113

    Cam Ward
    Passing Yards under 202.5

    -113 · CASHED · ACTUAL 102

    Tennessee Titans

    Cam Ward under 202.5 passing yards at -113. This number sat at 190.5 last week and 185.5 the week before. It jumped because Indianapolis has been carved up through the air. I'm betting on the passer over the matchup.

    Ward has thrown for 140, 183, 181, 222 and 170 in five starts this season. Across ten games last year he averaged about the same. He's at 5.8 yards per attempt with one completion more than 20 yards downfield all season. Tennessee calls runs more often than the situation suggests, and the offense ranks dead last in yards.

    Carnell Tate is the only receiver averaging more than 10 yards a catch, and he should see Sauce Gardner most of the afternoon. Indy's defense has been soft against Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers. Against weaker passers it held Houston to 153 yards on its pass plays and Washington's backups to 217. DeForest Buckner and Adetomiwa Adebawore have six sacks between them up the middle, and interior pressure is where Ward's day fell apart against Houston.

    The case against me is real. The Colts allow 268 passing yards a game and 8.0 yards per attempt, with only two takeaways all year. If Indianapolis gets up two scores, Tennessee abandons the run and Ward throws 40 times, and volume alone can carry him past this. His best game this season came on the road in Baltimore while chasing a 24-7 deficit. Five starts with a new coordinator is a small sample, and one clean afternoon against this secondary would bury the under.

  • GARY'S PICK
    JONATHAN TAYLORRUSHING YARDS UNDER 87.5
    NFLIndianapolis Colts· -115

    Jonathan Taylor
    Rushing Yards under 87.5

    -115 · LOST · ACTUAL 94

    Indianapolis Colts

    Jonathan Taylor under 87.5 rushing yards at -115. Everyone in Indianapolis wants this to be the week his 100-yard drought ends. The front he's running into points the other way.

    Tennessee allows 3.54 yards a carry, fourth best in the league. Running backs have managed 472 yards on 130 carries against this group across five games. Jeffery Simmons takes the bulk of the snaps inside, and rookie Anthony Hill Jr. hasn't left the field all year.

    Taylor is at 3.9 a carry on 101 attempts. He's being hit at or behind the line more often than all but six backs, and Indy is seeing loaded boxes at one of the higher rates in the league. Today that gets worse. Tyler Warren, the team's leader in catches, is inactive, joining Alec Pierce and Ashton Dulin on the sideline. With less to fear in the passing game, Tennessee can park another defender near the line. At his normal 20 carries and this defense's per-carry rate, he lands well short of 87.5.

    The pushback starts with history. Taylor ran for 218, 102 and 153 in his last three games against Tennessee, including an 80-yard score last October. He also posted 98, 92 and 95 this season. As a near-touchdown favorite against an offense that keeps losing the time-of-possession battle, the Colts can feed him 25 times. Tennessee is also thin behind and beside its best players. Kevin Winston is out, Amani Hooker is back from a concussion, and Jordan Elliott is inactive up front today. One run through the second level could cover most of this number. Five games is a short sample in either direction.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.

Get Gary on the App Store

Every NFL game this dayThe NFL recordToday's NFL picksEvery sport this day