Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
O/U 43.5 · SPREAD Indianapolis Colts -6.5 · Lucas Oil Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Tennessee Titans +6.5 -115
- Published odds
- -115
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 26-20
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETRIVERS · 58 moves| Market | Opened Oct 11 11:41 PM | Close Oct 18 12:51 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Indianapolis Colts -6.5 (-115) | Indianapolis Colts -5.5 (-110) | −1 |
| TOTAL | 43.5 (-109) | 43.5 (-114) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Indianapolis Colts -315 | Indianapolis Colts -286 | +29 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 11 11:41 PM | Indianapolis Colts -6.5 (-115) | 43.5 (-109) | Indianapolis Colts -315 · Tennessee Titans +250 |
| Oct 12 3:34 PM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-106) | 43.5 (-114) | Indianapolis Colts -335 · Tennessee Titans +260 |
| Oct 13 8:00 AM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-114) | 44 (-106) | Indianapolis Colts -335 · Tennessee Titans +260 |
| Oct 13 9:00 AM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-114) | 44.5 (-107) | Indianapolis Colts -335 · Tennessee Titans +260 |
| Oct 13 10:01 AM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-118) | 44.5 (-107) | Indianapolis Colts -335 · Tennessee Titans +260 |
| Oct 13 1:02 PM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-109) | 43.5 (-114) | Indianapolis Colts -360 · Tennessee Titans +270 |
| Oct 13 2:02 PM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-109) | 43.5 (-113) | Indianapolis Colts -360 · Tennessee Titans +270 |
| Oct 13 3:02 PM | Indianapolis Colts -6.5 (-120) | 43.5 (-113) | Indianapolis Colts -345 · Tennessee Titans +260 |
| Oct 13 4:32 PM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-109) | 43.5 (-114) | Indianapolis Colts -335 · Tennessee Titans +250 |
| Oct 14 11:32 AM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-112) | 44.5 (-105) | Indianapolis Colts -335 · Tennessee Titans +255 |
| Oct 14 12:34 PM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-108) | 44.5 (-108) | Indianapolis Colts -335 · Tennessee Titans +255 |
| Oct 14 1:34 PM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-117) | 45.5 (-113) | Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +280 |
| Oct 14 2:34 PM | Indianapolis Colts -7.5 (-104) | 44.5 (-108) | Indianapolis Colts -385 · Tennessee Titans +285 |
| Oct 14 5:25 PM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-107) | 44.5 (-108) | Indianapolis Colts -335 · Tennessee Titans +255 |
| Oct 14 9:08 PM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-108) | 44.5 (-109) | Indianapolis Colts -335 · Tennessee Titans +255 |
| Oct 15 6:00 AM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-110) | 44.5 (-109) | Indianapolis Colts -345 · Tennessee Titans +260 |
| Oct 15 6:30 AM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-108) | 44.5 (-107) | Indianapolis Colts -335 · Tennessee Titans +260 |
| Oct 15 7:00 AM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-108) | 44.5 (-115) | Indianapolis Colts -335 · Tennessee Titans +260 |
| Oct 15 8:01 AM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-107) | 44.5 (-108) | Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +275 |
| Oct 15 8:32 AM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-108) | 44.5 (-106) | Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +280 |
| Oct 15 9:00 AM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-108) | 44.5 (-107) | Indianapolis Colts -385 · Tennessee Titans +285 |
| Oct 15 10:31 AM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-107) | 43.5 (-114) | Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +275 |
| Oct 15 11:01 AM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-107) | 43.5 (-115) | Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +275 |
| Oct 15 11:31 AM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-107) | 44.5 (-113) | Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +280 |
| Oct 15 12:01 PM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-106) | 44.5 (-113) | Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +280 |
| Oct 15 5:03 PM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-105) | 44.5 (-112) | Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +275 |
| Oct 15 5:59 PM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-115) | 44.5 (-113) | Indianapolis Colts -420 · Tennessee Titans +300 |
| Oct 15 6:42 PM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-114) | 44.5 (-114) | Indianapolis Colts -420 · Tennessee Titans +300 |
| Oct 15 7:13 PM | Indianapolis Colts -6.5 (-117) | 44.5 (-114) | Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +275 |
| Oct 16 11:01 AM | Indianapolis Colts -6.5 (-117) | 44.5 (-114) | Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +275 |
| Oct 16 12:02 PM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-105) | 44.5 (-109) | Indianapolis Colts -385 · Tennessee Titans +285 |
| Oct 16 1:02 PM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-106) | 44.5 (-113) | Indianapolis Colts -385 · Tennessee Titans +285 |
| Oct 16 2:02 PM | Indianapolis Colts -6.5 (-118) | 44.5 (-109) | Indianapolis Colts -360 · Tennessee Titans +275 |
| Oct 16 3:02 PM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-105) | 44.5 (-117) | Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +280 |
| Oct 16 4:02 PM | Indianapolis Colts -6.5 (-113) | 44.5 (-108) | Indianapolis Colts -345 · Tennessee Titans +265 |
| Oct 16 5:02 PM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-105) | 44.5 (-108) | Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +280 |
| Oct 17 5:00 AM | Indianapolis Colts -6.5 (-113) | 44.5 (-115) | Indianapolis Colts -360 · Tennessee Titans +265 |
| Oct 17 12:02 PM | Indianapolis Colts -6.5 (-113) | 44.5 (-112) | Indianapolis Colts -345 · Tennessee Titans +265 |
| Oct 17 12:32 PM | Indianapolis Colts -6.5 (-112) | 44.5 (-113) | Indianapolis Colts -345 · Tennessee Titans +260 |
| Oct 17 2:03 PM | Indianapolis Colts -6.5 (-110) | 44.5 (-113) | Indianapolis Colts -335 · Tennessee Titans +255 |
| Oct 17 5:33 PM | Indianapolis Colts -6.5 (-117) | 44.5 (-113) | Indianapolis Colts -360 · Tennessee Titans +270 |
| Oct 17 7:33 PM | Indianapolis Colts -6.5 (-117) | 44.5 (-112) | Indianapolis Colts -360 · Tennessee Titans +270 |
| Oct 17 8:03 PM | Indianapolis Colts -6.5 (-117) | 44.5 (-113) | Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +275 |
| Oct 17 8:33 PM | Indianapolis Colts -6.5 (-115) | 44.5 (-112) | Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +275 |
| Oct 17 10:04 PM | Indianapolis Colts -6.5 (-113) | 44.5 (-105) | Indianapolis Colts -345 · Tennessee Titans +265 |
| Oct 17 11:04 PM | Indianapolis Colts -6.5 (-113) | 44.5 (-108) | Indianapolis Colts -345 · Tennessee Titans +265 |
| Oct 18 6:00 AM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-109) | 44.5 (-108) | Indianapolis Colts -385 · Tennessee Titans +290 |
| Oct 18 6:30 AM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-113) | 44.5 (-114) | Indianapolis Colts -400 · Tennessee Titans +295 |
| Oct 18 6:41 AM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-112) | 44.5 (-114) | Indianapolis Colts -400 · Tennessee Titans +295 |
| Oct 18 7:11 AM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-112) | 44.5 (-108) | Indianapolis Colts -400 · Tennessee Titans +295 |
| Oct 18 7:21 AM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-106) | 44.5 (-108) | Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +280 |
| Oct 18 7:31 AM | Indianapolis Colts -6.5 (-118) | 44.5 (-108) | Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +275 |
| Oct 18 8:01 AM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-109) | 44.5 (-108) | Indianapolis Colts -385 · Tennessee Titans +290 |
| Oct 18 8:21 AM | Indianapolis Colts -6.5 (-118) | 44.5 (-108) | Indianapolis Colts -375 · Tennessee Titans +275 |
| Oct 18 8:41 AM | Indianapolis Colts -7 (-114) | 44.5 (-108) | Indianapolis Colts -420 · Tennessee Titans +300 |
| Oct 18 8:51 AM | Indianapolis Colts -6.5 (-110) | 44.5 (-107) | Indianapolis Colts -345 · Tennessee Titans +260 |
| Oct 18 12:13 PM | Indianapolis Colts -6.5 (-109) | 43.5 (-114) | Indianapolis Colts -335 · Tennessee Titans +255 |
| Oct 18 12:21 PM | Indianapolis Colts -6 (-112) | 43.5 (-114) | Indianapolis Colts -315 · Tennessee Titans +240 |
| CLOSEOct 18 12:51 PM | Indianapolis Colts -5.5 (-110) | 43.5 (-114) | Indianapolis Colts -286 · Tennessee Titans +220 |
The read
Two AFC South teams looking for traction meet under the roof at Lucas Oil Stadium. The 0-5 Titans are coming off a 3-26 home loss to a Texans team that hadn't won all year. The 2-3 Colts are coming off a 22-34 loss in Pittsburgh. This number asks Indianapolis to win by more than a touchdown, and that's more than this Colts team has shown it can do.
That Houston blowout is the game everyone remembers, and it's pushing this line. The rest of Tennessee's season tells a different story. The Titans' losses to the Eagles (20-24), Giants (7-12) and Ravens (18-24) would all have covered this number.
Indianapolis scores 24.8 points a game, but that hides a team ranked 31st in yards per play on offense and 30th in yards per play allowed on defense. The Colts beat Houston on a last-second field goal and handled Washington in London on 4.3 yards per play. That's not a team that pulls away.
The Colts' passing game is also as thin as it's been all year. Tyler Warren is inactive, joining Alec Pierce and Ashton Dulin on the sideline. Daniel Jones has 25 rushing yards on 14 carries and no longer escapes pressure. That leaves Josh Downs, Laquon Treadwell and a tight end just back from injured reserve. Tennessee's defense ranks 11th in both yards per play allowed and points allowed, so it can sit on Jonathan Taylor and make Indy settle for field goals.
The risks are real. DeForest Buckner (4 sacks, 8 QB hits) against Tennessee's interior line is the matchup most likely to sink this pick. Houston sacked Cam Ward 4 times last week, and the league's worst scoring offense went dry. Indy's kicker is a perfect 16/16, including 6/6 from 50+, while Tennessee is 0/1 from that range. That's how a close game turns into a margin. Ward has also thrown an interception in each of the Giants, Ravens and Texans games.
I'm not calling an upset. I expect a division grind that Indianapolis wins more often than not, usually by less than a touchdown. The hook works against the Titans here, since a Colts win by exactly a touchdown loses. Treat this as a value play, not a lock. Take the points.
Injuries noted
Tennessee Titans: Jaylen Harrell (IR) — ir; Jaren Kanak (IR) — ir; Kendell Brooks (IR) — Brooks (undisclosed) reverted to Tennessee's injured reserve Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Milo Eifler (IR) — ir; Tanoh Kpassagnon (IR) — The Titans placed Kpassagnon (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports.; Dorian Mausi (IR-R) — The Titans placed Mausi (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday with a designation to return, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports.; Fernando Carmona (IR) — The Titans placed Carmona (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports.; Jackson Slater (IR) — The Titans placed Slater (foot) on injured reserve Tuesday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports.; Kevin Winston Jr. (Out) — inactive; Tyjae Spears (Questionable) — Spears (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Colts.; Jordan Elliott (Out) — inactive; Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson (Out) — inactive; Kylen Granson (Out) — Granson (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Colts.; Nicholas Singleton (Out) — Singleton (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Colts.; Jackie Marshall (Out) — inactive; Alontae Taylor (Out) — Taylor (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Colts, Paul Kuharsky of PaulKuharsky.com reports.; Joshua Williams (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 6: Questionable (Pectoral); practice: Full.
Indianapolis Colts: Cameron Mitchell (IR) — ir; D.J. Montgomery (IR) — Montgomery (abdomen) was placed on injured reserve by the Colts on Sunday, JJ Stankevitz of the team's official website reports.; Carson Towt (IR) — ir; Alec Pierce (IR) — Pierce was spotted without a cast on his left ankle/heel Wednesday, James Boyd of The Athletic reports.; Ashton Dulin (Out) — inactive; Micheal Clemons (IR) — Clemons (toe) was placed on injured reserve by the Colts on Tuesday.; Arden Key (IR) — The Colts placed Key (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday.; Jaylon Carlies (Out) — inactive; Tyler Warren (Out) — Warren (groin) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Titans.; Riley Leonard (Out) — Leonard (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Colts' emergency third quarterback against the Titans on Sunday.; Dalton Tucker (Out) — inactive
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Daniel Jones is the projected starting quarterback for IND
5.8 Y/AThrough 5 games in 2026, Daniel Jones threw for 1021 passing yards, completed 61.4% of his passes and averaged 5.8 yards per attempt. Last season over 13 games he threw for 3101 yards, completed 68% and averaged 8.08 yards per attempt, 19-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 3-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 5 games in.
Cam Ward is the projected starting quarterback for TEN
5.78 Y/AThrough 5 games in 2026, Cam Ward threw for 896 passing yards, completed 63.2% of his passes and averaged 5.78 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3169 yards, completed 59.8% and averaged 5.87 yards per attempt, 15-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 3-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 5 games in.
TRENCHES
IND: 100.8 rushing yards per game to TEN's 82.6
18.2 YPGTEN is at 82.6 rushing yards per game over 5 games; IND is at 100.8 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 17. Last season TEN was at 93.5 over 17 games and IND at 118.1 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPT
IND: 24.8 points per game to TEN's 11.6
13.2 PPGTennessee is scoring 11.6 points a game, down from 16.7 last season, while Indianapolis sits a bit below last year's 27.4. Over five games the Titans' drop is real, but some of that is the schedule they've faced, so a little rebound is plausible. The Colts should be the team setting the tempo at home. Think about Tennessee's team total more than the side, since their scoring has been the steadier signal.
IND: 31:07 time of possession per game to TEN's 24:31
6:35 TOPIndianapolis holds the ball for 31:07 a game, up from 29:37 last season, while Tennessee is down to 24:31 from 29:08. Five games with that big a swing for the Titans means their drives are short and they are on the field defensively a lot. Indy should control the clock and the tempo here, which tends to shorten the game and limits Tennessee's possessions.
IND: 64.4 offensive plays per game to TEN's 54.6
9.8 PLAYSTEN is at 54.6 offensive plays per game over 5 games; IND is at 64.4 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 17. Last season TEN was at 59.1 over 17 games and IND at 59.9 over 17 games.
TEN: 21.8 points allowed per game to IND's 27.6
5.8 PPGTEN is at 21.8 points allowed per game over 5 games; IND is at 27.6 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 17. Last season TEN was at 28.1 over 17 games and IND at 24.2 over 17 games.
RED ZONE
IND: 66.7% red-zone scoring rate to TEN's 46.2%
20.5 PPIndianapolis is scoring touchdowns on 66.7% of red-zone trips, right in line with last season's 65.2%, so that looks stable. Tennessee has fallen to 46.2% from 57.6% last season over five games, and red-zone rates swing a lot on a handful of trips. Expect Tennessee to drift back up some. In this game, the Titans settling for field goals is the gap that could decide a spread.
MISMATCH
IND: 31:07 of possession a game to TEN's 24:31
31:07 VS 24:31Indianapolis has held the ball 31:07 a game over 5 games while Tennessee sits at 24:31. Last season the two were close, 29:37 for the Colts and 29:08 for the Titans, so Tennessee's dip is the outlier. Possession time follows game script, and through 5 games Tennessee has been on the field defending a lot. At Indianapolis, expect the Colts to control the clock unless the Titans can sustain drives like last season.
COVERAGE
TEN: 5.22 yards per play allowed to IND's 6.14
0.92 Y/PTennessee allows 5.22 yards every snap through 5 games, a stingier rate than Indianapolis at 6.14. Indy giving up over six a play is a lot of easy yardage, and five games is enough to take it seriously, though the sheet doesn't show who they faced. In this game, the Colts defense looks like the softer unit, which matters for how efficiently Tennessee can move the ball.
IND: 30.5% third downs allowed to TEN's 38.5%
8 PPIndianapolis lets opponents move the chains on fewer than a third of their third downs, while Tennessee gives up conversions closer to four in ten. Five games is a real start but not a full picture, and the sheet does not show who each defense faced, so some of that gap could be schedule. If it holds at home, Tennessee's drives are more likely to stall, which matters for how you think about the Titans' scoring in this spot.
TEN: 217.8 passing yards allowed per game to IND's 254
36.2 YPGTEN is at 217.8 passing yards allowed per game over 5 games; IND is at 254 over 5 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 17.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
IND lead the series with TEN since 2025
2-0 SERIESIndianapolis has won both meetings since last season, and neither was close: 41-20 at Tennessee on Sep 21, then 38-14 at home on Oct 26. That is two blowouts with Indianapolis scoring 38 or more each time. Two games is a small sample, and nothing on the sheet says what has changed for either roster since. For this spot, the question is whether Tennessee can keep it within a score, because last season it never did.
REPLACEMENT
Alec Pierce (WR) is on injured reserve for IND
IRAlec Pierce is on injured reserve with a left ankle and heel injury, and he was seen without a cast Wednesday. That is a step toward recovery, though he remains out against Tennessee. Colts receivers already active keep his targets for now.
Arden Key (DE) is on injured reserve for IND
IRThe Colts put Key on IR with a hamstring injury, reported Oct 10, so he misses this game against Tennessee. IR means he cannot play until he is eligible to return. The facts here do not name who replaces him on the edge.
PRACTICE REPORT
Kevin Winston Jr.
OutQuadricep · Did not practice · Out
Jaylon Carlies
OutRibs · Did not practice · Out
Jordan Elliott
OutNot injury related - personal matter · Did not practice · Out
Ashton Dulin
OutHamstring · Did not practice · Out
Joshua Williams
QuestionablePectoral · Full practice · Questionable
Tyler Warren
QuestionableGroin · Limited practice · Questionable
Tyjae Spears
QuestionableKnee · Full practice · Questionable
DeForest Buckner
DNPDid not practice
Jalen Travis
LPLimited practice
Matt Goncalves
LPLimited practice
Jaylahn Tuimoloau
LPLimited practice
Will Mallory
FPFull practice
Josh Downs
FPFull practice
Tony Pollard
FPFull practice
David Martin-Robinson
FPFull practice
John Franklin-Myers
FPFull practice
Marcus Harris
FPFull practice
Cor'Dale Flott
FPFull practice
Daniel Jones
FPFull practice
Grover Stewart
FPFull practice
Jonathan Taylor
FPFull practice
Keenan Allen
FPFull practice
Charvarius Ward
FPFull practice
Amani Hooker
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
TEN (0-5) at IND (2-3), a division game
+37 PT GAPTennessee is 0-5 with a -51 point differential, so the losing streak reflects how lopsided the games have been. Indianapolis at 2-3 and -14 is a modest team, 1-1 at home. Both point differentials back up the records, so neither looks out of place. The useful frame is one struggling team at home against a winless one that has been beaten soundly, in a division game where familiarity can tighten things.
STREAK
TEN has lost 5 straight
L5Tennessee has lost every game this season, five in a row. Five games is enough to say the team is struggling, but the sheet doesn't show who they lost to or by how much, so it can't separate a bad roster from a tough early schedule. Winless teams often get marked down hard by the market, so the useful question against Indianapolis is whether the number already prices in all five losses.
TEAM RECORD
AFC SOUTH game: TEN 0-1, IND 1-0 in the division
DIVISIONEach team has played one AFC South game: Indianapolis won theirs, Tennessee lost theirs. One division game apiece says very little on its own. The broader season form matters more than this split for this matchup.
AFTER GARY
TEN +6.5 → +6.5
NO MOVEGary's number was 6.5; the same book now shows 6.5.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 15, 2026 at 5:20 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKCAM WARDPASSING YARDS UNDER 202.5
Cam Ward under 202.5 passing yards at -113. This number sat at 190.5 last week and 185.5 the week before. It jumped because Indianapolis has been carved up through the air. I'm betting on the passer over the matchup.
Ward has thrown for 140, 183, 181, 222 and 170 in five starts this season. Across ten games last year he averaged about the same. He's at 5.8 yards per attempt with one completion more than 20 yards downfield all season. Tennessee calls runs more often than the situation suggests, and the offense ranks dead last in yards.
Carnell Tate is the only receiver averaging more than 10 yards a catch, and he should see Sauce Gardner most of the afternoon. Indy's defense has been soft against Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers. Against weaker passers it held Houston to 153 yards on its pass plays and Washington's backups to 217. DeForest Buckner and Adetomiwa Adebawore have six sacks between them up the middle, and interior pressure is where Ward's day fell apart against Houston.
The case against me is real. The Colts allow 268 passing yards a game and 8.0 yards per attempt, with only two takeaways all year. If Indianapolis gets up two scores, Tennessee abandons the run and Ward throws 40 times, and volume alone can carry him past this. His best game this season came on the road in Baltimore while chasing a 24-7 deficit. Five starts with a new coordinator is a small sample, and one clean afternoon against this secondary would bury the under.
- GARY'S PICKJONATHAN TAYLORRUSHING YARDS UNDER 87.5
Jonathan Taylor under 87.5 rushing yards at -115. Everyone in Indianapolis wants this to be the week his 100-yard drought ends. The front he's running into points the other way.
Tennessee allows 3.54 yards a carry, fourth best in the league. Running backs have managed 472 yards on 130 carries against this group across five games. Jeffery Simmons takes the bulk of the snaps inside, and rookie Anthony Hill Jr. hasn't left the field all year.
Taylor is at 3.9 a carry on 101 attempts. He's being hit at or behind the line more often than all but six backs, and Indy is seeing loaded boxes at one of the higher rates in the league. Today that gets worse. Tyler Warren, the team's leader in catches, is inactive, joining Alec Pierce and Ashton Dulin on the sideline. With less to fear in the passing game, Tennessee can park another defender near the line. At his normal 20 carries and this defense's per-carry rate, he lands well short of 87.5.
The pushback starts with history. Taylor ran for 218, 102 and 153 in his last three games against Tennessee, including an 80-yard score last October. He also posted 98, 92 and 95 this season. As a near-touchdown favorite against an offense that keeps losing the time-of-possession battle, the Colts can feed him 25 times. Tennessee is also thin behind and beside its best players. Kevin Winston is out, Amani Hooker is back from a concussion, and Jordan Elliott is inactive up front today. One run through the second level could cover most of this number. Five games is a short sample in either direction.
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