Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
O/U 64.5 · SPREAD Baltimore Ravens -18.5 · Lucas Oil Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Indianapolis Colts +3.5 -120
- Published odds
- -120
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 41-23
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
FANATICS · 20 moves| Market | Opened Sep 9 10:49 AM | Close Sep 13 12:58 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105) | Baltimore Ravens -3 (-105) | −½ |
| TOTAL | 48 (-110) | 48 (-110) | Holds |
| MONEYLINE | Baltimore Ravens -180 | Baltimore Ravens -170 | +10 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 9 10:49 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105) | 48 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Indianapolis Colts +150 |
| Sep 9 1:13 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100) | 48 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Indianapolis Colts +150 |
| Sep 9 7:57 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3 (-115) | 48 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Indianapolis Colts +150 |
| Sep 9 8:07 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100) | 48 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Indianapolis Colts +150 |
| Sep 10 12:59 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105) | 48 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Indianapolis Colts +150 |
| Sep 10 11:32 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100) | 48 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Indianapolis Colts +150 |
| Sep 10 6:06 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105) | 48 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Indianapolis Colts +150 |
| Sep 10 7:17 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100) | 48 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Indianapolis Colts +150 |
| Sep 11 10:01 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105) | 48 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Indianapolis Colts +150 |
| Sep 11 11:01 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100) | 48 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Indianapolis Colts +150 |
| Sep 11 12:02 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100) | 48 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -175 · Indianapolis Colts +145 |
| Sep 12 5:01 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100) | 48 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Indianapolis Colts +150 |
| Sep 12 10:34 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100) | 48 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -175 · Indianapolis Colts +145 |
| Sep 12 11:34 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3 (-110) | 48 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -170 · Indianapolis Colts +140 |
| Sep 13 10:31 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3 (-115) | 48 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -170 · Indianapolis Colts +140 |
| Sep 13 10:36 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3 (-110) | 48 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -170 · Indianapolis Colts +140 |
| Sep 13 10:56 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3 (-115) | 48 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -170 · Indianapolis Colts +140 |
| Sep 13 11:00 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3 (-110) | 48 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -170 · Indianapolis Colts +140 |
| Sep 13 11:57 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -165 · Indianapolis Colts +135 |
| Sep 13 12:37 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3 (-105) | 48 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -155 · Indianapolis Colts +130 |
| CLOSESep 13 12:58 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3 (-105) | 48 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -170 · Indianapolis Colts +140 |
The read
The season opens at Lucas Oil Stadium with Daniel Jones returning for Indianapolis and Baltimore unveiling a new coaching staff and offense. Sunday afternoon puts those changes straight into competition.
The matchup that pulls me toward Indianapolis is its defensive interior against Baltimore’s rebuilt offensive line. The Ravens have three new interior starters, with Jovaughn Gwyn making his first NFL start. DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart provide an immediate test. Baltimore allowed sacks on 8.9% of dropbacks last season, compared with Indianapolis’ 4.8%. Those figures describe the previous units, but the current personnel assignment gives the concern relevance: I expect Indianapolis to interrupt enough Baltimore possessions to make sustained scoring separation difficult.
Indianapolis also has a credible offensive foundation with Jones returning to Shane Steichen’s play calling. The Colts averaged 32.1 points through their first 10 games last season, showing what that partnership could produce with Jonathan Taylor in the backfield. That peak does not need to return in full for Indianapolis to compete here. Taylor, Tyler Warren and Alec Pierce give Jones established options, while Teddye Buchanan’s fresh knee absence removes a listed starter from Baltimore’s linebacker group.
Baltimore’s strongest answer is its running game. Last season the Ravens averaged 5.3 yards per carry and generated explosive plays on 11.9% of offensive snaps, compared with Indianapolis’ 9.1%. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry can make individual breakdowns expensive, and Baltimore also had the stronger red-zone defensive efficiency. If the Ravens keep their new interior out of difficult passing situations and force Indianapolis to settle for field goals, their path to covering is clear.
I give more weight to Indianapolis’ offensive continuity and the specific challenge its defensive tackles present than to Baltimore’s preseason dominance, which offered limited evidence about its starting offense. My read supports the Colts remaining competitive throughout the game. The spread fits that conviction better than the moneyline: +3.5 protects an Indianapolis loss by a field goal while retaining the outright-win path. I’ll take that protection at -120.
Injuries noted
Baltimore Ravens: Teddye Buchanan (Out) — Buchanan (knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts.; Jahquez Robinson (IR) — Robinson (undisclosed) reverted to the Ravens' injured reserve list Wednesday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Skylar Thompson (IR) — ir; Bilhal Kone (IR-R) — ir; Nnamdi Madubuike (Out) — Madubuike (neck) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts, Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com reports.; Danny Pinter (IR) — Pinter (knee) was placed on injured reserve by the Ravens on Wednesday, Clifton Brown of the team's official website reports.; Adam Randall (IR-R) — Randall (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Ravens on Sunday with a designation to return, Ryan Mink of the team's official website reports.; Devontez Walker (Questionable) — Walker (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Colts.
Indianapolis Colts: Cameron Mitchell (IR) — ir; Cam Taylor-Britt (Reserve-Sus) — reserve-sus; Will Mallory (IR-R) — Mallory (thumb) was placed on injured reserve by the Colts on Sunday with a designation to return, JJ Stankevitz of the team's official website reports.; D.J. Montgomery (IR) — Montgomery (abdomen) was placed on injured reserve by the Colts on Sunday, JJ Stankevitz of the team's official website reports.; Carson Towt (IR) — ir; Austin Ajiake (Out) — Ajiake (hamstring) has been downgraded to out for Sunday's game with the Ravens.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
IND's passing game is +52.2 yards per game (2025 season)
52.2 YPGBAL is at 175.6 team passing yards per game over 17 games; IND is at 227.8 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
Daniel Jones starts at quarterback for IND
8.08 Y/AJones's 2025 season line: 3101 passing yards, 68% completions, 8.08 yards per attempt, 19-8 TD-INT over 13 games.
Lamar Jackson starts at quarterback for BAL
8.44 Y/AJackson's 2025 season line: 2549 passing yards, 63.6% completions, 8.44 yards per attempt, 21-7 TD-INT over 13 games.
TRENCHES
BAL is +38.5 rush yards per game (2025 season)
38.5 YPGBAL is at 156.6 rushing yards per game over 17 games; IND is at 118.1 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
BAL gets +0.85 more yards a carry (2025 season)
0.85 Y/CBAL is at 5.28 yards per rush attempt over 17 games; IND is at 4.44 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
PASS RUSH
IND's offense takes 0.58 fewer sacks per game (2025 season)
0.58 SACKSBAL is at 2.65 sacks taken per game over 17 games; IND is at 2.07 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
PACE & SCRIPT
BAL @ IND carries a 64.5 market total
64.5BAL-IND’s 64.5 total stands 17 points above the 47.5 median across 13 games with posted totals, setting a distinctly high scoring expectation for this slate. That view breaks if scoring is much more limited than the market total anticipates.
RED ZONE
IND's red-zone scoring rate is 17.7 percentage points higher (2025 season)
17.7 PPBAL is at 47.5% red-zone scoring rate over 17 games; IND is at 65.2% over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
MISMATCH
IND's passing attack against BAL's — 227.8 pass yards a game to 175.6 (2025 season)
227.8 VS 175.6Indianapolis averaged 227.8 passing yards per game over 17 games in the 2025 regular season; Baltimore averaged 175.6 over 17. The comparison does not measure Baltimore’s pass defense, so it cannot show how Indianapolis attacks that unit.
REPLACEMENT
Riley Leonard (QB) is inactive for IND
INACTIVERiley Leonard is inactive by coach’s decision as Indianapolis’ emergency third quarterback against Baltimore on Sep. 13. The report does not indicate that he was expected to handle offensive work.
Ja'Kobi Lane (WR) is questionable for BAL
QUESTIONABLEDespite the questionable label, Baltimore ruled Ja’Kobi Lane out for the remainder of its Sep. 13 game at Indianapolis with a wrist injury. The offense loses a receiver, but the report does not say who absorbs his work.
Zay Flowers (WR) is questionable for BAL
QUESTIONABLEDespite the questionable label, the Sep. 13 update says Zay Flowers was ruled out for the remainder of Baltimore’s game at Indianapolis with a hamstring injury. The offense loses a receiver, but no replacement is identified.
Joe Fagnano (QB) is inactive for BAL
INACTIVEJoe Fagnano is inactive by coach’s decision as Baltimore’s emergency third quarterback against Indianapolis on Sep. 13. The report does not indicate that he was expected to handle offensive work.
PRACTICE REPORT
Austin Ajiake
OutHamstring · Did not practice · Out
Teddye Buchanan
OutKnee · Limited practice · Out
Nnamdi Madubuike
OutNeck · Limited practice · Out
Zay Flowers
OutHamstring · Full practice · Out
Devontez Walker
QuestionableGroin · Limited practice · Questionable
Calais Campbell
DNPDid not practice
DeForest Buckner
DNPDid not practice
Charvarius Ward
LPLimited practice
Alec Pierce
LPLimited practice
Drew Ogletree
FPFull practice
Grover Stewart
FPFull practice
Sedrick Van Pran-Granger
FPFull practice
Anthony Richardson Sr.
FPFull practice
A.J. Haulcy
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
BAL (1-0) at IND (0-1)
-36 PT GAPBAL is 1-0 with a +18 point differential and one straight win this season; IND is 0-1 at -18 after one straight loss. BAL is 1-0 on the road and IND 0-1 at home, though the 36-point gap and both splits come from one game.
AFTER GARY
IND +3.5 → +3
GARY +0.5FANDUEL · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 9, 2026 at 4:25 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, fanatics, caesars, betrivers, betmgm.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
4- GARY'S PICKDERRICK HENRYRUSHING YARDS OVER 79.5
Henry averaged 108.5 rushing yards across his last 10 games and cleared this number in seven of them. Baltimore will want to establish him while protecting a revamped interior line, and Indianapolis is without Austin Ajiake at linebacker. Even with DeForest Buckner back, Henry's workload and red-zone role give him a strong path past 80 yards.
- THE LONG SHOTDERRICK HENRYANYTIME TD OVER 0.5
Henry remains Baltimore's clearest goal-line option after scoring 16 touchdowns last season. The Ravens are introducing a new offense, but the safest early-season foundation is still Henry behind Lamar Jackson's threat in the run game. His volume near the goal line makes one touchdown a reasonable expectation at this price.
- GARY'S PICKALEC PIERCERECEIVING YARDS OVER 37.5
Pierce cleared 37.5 receiving yards in seven of his last 10 games and finished 2025 with more than 1,000 yards. His vertical role complements Keenan Allen and Josh Downs, while Daniel Jones has already shown he can support explosive plays in this offense. With Indianapolis likely needing to throw against Baltimore, Pierce should get enough chances to beat a modest number.
- THE LONG SHOTJONATHAN TAYLORANYTIME TD OVER 0.5
Taylor is the engine of Indianapolis' offense and finished last season with 20 total touchdowns. A healthy Daniel Jones improves the spacing around him, and Baltimore will be without linebacker Teddye Buchanan. If the Colts reach the red zone, Taylor is the player most likely to finish the drive.
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