Chicago Bears picks

Monday night at Lumen Field, with a forecast of 46 degrees and almost no wind. The Bears come in 5-2 with Caleb Williams back under center and 11 days of rest. Seattle is laying 3.5, and I'm taking the points. The biggest reason is Seattle's offensive line. Left tackle Charles Cross is out with a high ankle sprain, and Josh Jones starts. Jones's heaviest workload this season was 19% of snaps last week, and 5% or less before that. Sam Darnold's turnovers rise when the pocket breaks down. San Francisco pressured him on 40% of dropbacks, and Seattle had four giveaways. Denver got to 33% with 17 hits, and Seattle had three more. Kansas City pressured him only 7%, and that was the 20-3 win. Quenton Nelson helps inside, but not on the edge. Chicago's pass rush gets help right on time. Montez Sweat is back from suspension; he had five pressures on Bryce Young in Week 1. Jeffery Simmons debuts on a cut-down playbook, so I'm treating him as a bonus. Darnold also gives the ball away: 8 interceptions in 5 starts, 12 Seattle giveaways in those games, and two returned for touchdowns. Williams is protecting it. Over the last two games, Williams is 52-of-69 for 613 yards, 3 touchdowns and no picks, and Chicago scored 7 touchdowns on 8 red-zone trips. The number fits too. Four of Seattle's seven games were decided by 3 points or fewer, and a Seattle field-goal win still cashes this ticket. Chicago also has 11 days of rest to Seattle's 8. What worries me is that Seattle's defense is the best unit on the field. Opponents have converted 26 of 93 third downs, and neither Kansas City nor Denver had a single play of 20 yards. Williams took 7 sacks in the last two games. Jason Myers is 14-of-15 on field goals, while Cairo Santos is 11-of-15. And Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 100-plus yards in 6 of 7 games. He faces a secondary that gave Drake Maye 321 last week, with Malik Muhammad questionable. At -120, the half point isn't cheap, so this is a normal-size bet, not a big one. At +3 I'd pass.