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NFL · Mon, Sep 28 · 8:15 PM

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

O/U 41.5 · SPREAD Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 · Soldier Field

GARY'S PICK
Bears +3.5
NFLvs Eagles· -105

Bears
+3.5

-105 · CASHED · PHI 7 · CHI 27

Eagles

The pick & result

Published pick
Chicago Bears +3.5 -105
Published odds
-105
Result
Won
Final score
7-27

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

FANATICS · 52 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 23 6:00 AM
Close
Sep 28 8:05 PM
Move
SPREADPhiladelphia Eagles -5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 (-105)−1½
TOTAL41 (-110)42.5 (-110)+1½
MONEYLINEPhiladelphia Eagles -235Philadelphia Eagles -195+40
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 23 6:00 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -5 (-110)41 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -235 · Chicago Bears +190
Sep 23 7:00 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -5 (-110)41.5 (-105)Philadelphia Eagles -235 · Chicago Bears +190
Sep 23 8:00 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -5 (-110)41 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -235 · Chicago Bears +190
Sep 23 8:07 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -4.5 (-115)41 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -235 · Chicago Bears +190
Sep 24 6:30 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -5 (-110)41 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -235 · Chicago Bears +190
Sep 24 11:32 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -5 (-110)41.5 (-105)Philadelphia Eagles -235 · Chicago Bears +190
Sep 24 1:22 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -4.5 (-110)41 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -235 · Chicago Bears +190
Sep 24 2:53 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -4.5 (-110)41.5 (-105)Philadelphia Eagles -235 · Chicago Bears +190
Sep 24 4:53 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -4.5 (-115)41.5 (-105)Philadelphia Eagles -235 · Chicago Bears +190
Sep 24 5:46 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -4.5 (-110)41.5 (-105)Philadelphia Eagles -235 · Chicago Bears +190
Sep 24 6:37 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -4.5 (-115)41.5 (-105)Philadelphia Eagles -235 · Chicago Bears +190
Sep 24 10:48 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -4.5 (-110)41.5 (-105)Philadelphia Eagles -235 · Chicago Bears +190
Sep 25 12:48 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -4.5 (-115)41.5 (-105)Philadelphia Eagles -235 · Chicago Bears +190
Sep 25 7:31 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -4.5 (-115)41 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -225 · Chicago Bears +185
Sep 25 1:01 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -4.5 (-110)41.5 (-105)Philadelphia Eagles -235 · Chicago Bears +190
Sep 25 2:01 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -4.5 (-115)41.5 (-105)Philadelphia Eagles -235 · Chicago Bears +190
Sep 25 5:05 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -5 (-110)41.5 (-105)Philadelphia Eagles -235 · Chicago Bears +190
Sep 25 6:05 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -4.5 (-110)41.5 (-105)Philadelphia Eagles -225 · Chicago Bears +185
Sep 25 9:05 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -4.5 (-110)41.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -225 · Chicago Bears +185
Sep 25 11:06 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -4.5 (-110)41.5 (-105)Philadelphia Eagles -225 · Chicago Bears +185
Sep 26 11:01 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -4.5 (-115)41.5 (-105)Philadelphia Eagles -225 · Chicago Bears +185
Sep 26 12:01 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -4.5 (-110)41.5 (-105)Philadelphia Eagles -225 · Chicago Bears +185
Sep 26 1:02 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -3.5 (-115)42 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -200 · Chicago Bears +165
Sep 26 1:32 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -3.5 (-105)42 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -190 · Chicago Bears +155
Sep 27 10:00 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -3.5 (+100)42 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -190 · Chicago Bears +155
Sep 27 11:01 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -3.5 (-105)42 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -190 · Chicago Bears +155
Sep 27 12:24 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -3.5 (-110)41.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -195 · Chicago Bears +160
Sep 27 12:34 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -3.5 (-115)41.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -205 · Chicago Bears +170
Sep 27 1:44 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -4 (-110)41.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -205 · Chicago Bears +170
Sep 27 2:14 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -4 (-110)41.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -215 · Chicago Bears +175
Sep 27 2:45 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -4 (-110)41.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -205 · Chicago Bears +170
Sep 27 4:16 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -4 (-110)41.5 (-105)Philadelphia Eagles -205 · Chicago Bears +170
Sep 27 4:26 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -4 (-110)41.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -205 · Chicago Bears +170
Sep 27 4:56 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -4 (-110)41.5 (-105)Philadelphia Eagles -205 · Chicago Bears +170
Sep 27 8:03 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -4 (-110)41.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -205 · Chicago Bears +170
Sep 27 8:23 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -4 (-110)41.5 (-105)Philadelphia Eagles -205 · Chicago Bears +170
Sep 27 11:23 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -4 (-110)41 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -205 · Chicago Bears +170
Sep 28 12:53 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -4 (-110)41.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -205 · Chicago Bears +170
Sep 28 5:00 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -3.5 (-115)42 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -205 · Chicago Bears +170
Sep 28 7:31 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -3.5 (-115)41.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -205 · Chicago Bears +170
Sep 28 1:45 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -3.5 (-110)41.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -200 · Chicago Bears +165
Sep 28 2:16 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -3.5 (-115)42 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -200 · Chicago Bears +165
Sep 28 2:47 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -3.5 (-110)41.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -200 · Chicago Bears +165
Sep 28 4:15 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -3.5 (-105)41.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -200 · Chicago Bears +165
Sep 28 5:15 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -3.5 (-110)42 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -200 · Chicago Bears +165
Sep 28 5:25 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -3.5 (-105)42.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -200 · Chicago Bears +165
Sep 28 6:15 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -3.5 (-110)42.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -195 · Chicago Bears +160
Sep 28 6:35 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -3.5 (-110)42.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -200 · Chicago Bears +165
Sep 28 6:45 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -3.5 (-110)42.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -195 · Chicago Bears +160
Sep 28 7:15 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -3.5 (-110)42.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -200 · Chicago Bears +165
Sep 28 7:45 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -3.5 (-110)42 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -195 · Chicago Bears +160
Sep 28 7:55 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -3.5 (-105)42.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -200 · Chicago Bears +165
CLOSESep 28 8:05 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -3.5 (-105)42.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -195 · Chicago Bears +160

The read

I'm taking the Bears because of how they move the ball, not because of who plays quarterback. Two things carry the pick.

1) Chicago's run game should hold up without Caleb Williams. The Bears lead the NFL at 212.5 rushing yards a game. They play under center, with a shotgun rate of only 47%. Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio said this week that they are 'one of the better running teams in the league' with a 'really great O-line.' He also said his defense has 'to play it a whole lot better,' and that he doesn't expect Chicago's scheme to change much whoever starts. That run game depends less on Williams than any other part of the offense. Swift and Monangai both went over 100 yards against Philadelphia last November. That was a different season and different coordinators, so I only count it as background, but it's a big reason Fangio is worried. Philadelphia has allowed 127 rushing yards a game so far. Keenum, whom several outlets report as the starter, has been in this system since Day 1 and led the first-team offense in practice all week.

2) Philadelphia's offense isn't built to win by more than a field goal right now. On first and second down it's at -0.11 EPA per play, a 31% success rate and 3.97 yards per play. It's getting by on a 53% third-down rate and 2-for-2 on fourth down, and I don't trust those to last. Goedert is out. He was their red-zone tight end, with 11 TDs on 17 red-zone targets in 2025. Hollywood Brown and swing tackle Fred Johnson are also out. Both Eagles wins came by 2 and 4 points, against Washington and Tennessee. Their defense still has zero takeaways, and their offense is -2 in turnovers.

The total is 41.5 in dry, mild weather, so points should be hard to come by. The hook gets me past the most likely way Chicago loses a game like this, which is by a field goal.

The line backs this up. The Williams news pushed it to -4.5 on Sunday, but by Monday morning it was back to -3.5. Kalshi prices Bears +3.5 at -102.

The case against me is real. Williams' ability to make plays when things break down is gone. Keenum is 38 and hasn't taken a regular-season snap since 2023. Chicago commits 10 penalties a game and has -0.094 EPA per play in the red zone. If the Eagles put the Bears behind the chains, Keenum isn't the quarterback who gets them out of it, and Hurts has already won a game on the final drive this season. I think the number mostly accounts for that. I'd rather have a run-first home underdog getting a hook past 3 at -105 than lay -115 on a team that can't stay on schedule on early downs.

I'm passing on the Bears moneyline at +168. I like Chicago to keep it close more than I trust Keenum to win it outright.

Injuries noted

Philadelphia Eagles: Jonathan Greenard (Questionable) — Greenard (pectoral) is listed as questionable ahead of Monday's game against the Bears.; Tucker Large (NFI-R) — Undisclosed; Jakorian Bennett (IR-R) — Bennett (knee) was placed on injured reserve with a designation to return by the Eagles on Sunday.; Grant Calcaterra (IR-R) — Calcaterra (back) was placed on injured reserve by the Eagles on Sunday with a designation to return.; Andre' Sam (IR) — Sam (foot) reverted to the Eagles' injured-reserve list Monday, Andrew DiCecco of InsideTheBirds.com reports.; Eli Stowers (IR) — The Eagles placed Stowers (quadriceps/hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday.; Johnny Wilson (IR) — Wilson (knee) reverted to Philadelphia's injured reserve Saturday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Landon Dickerson (IR) — The Eagles placed Dickerson (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday, Chris McPherson of the team's official site reports.; Jalen Carter (Questionable) — Carter (wrist) was a limited participant in practice Thursday.; Andrew Mukuba (Questionable) — Mukuba (knee) was limited in practice Thursday.; Saquon Barkley (Questionable) — Barkley (stinger) is taking part in the open portion of Friday's practice, Brooks Kubena of The Athletic reports.; Dallas Goedert (Out) — Goedert (knee) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Bears.; Tank Bigsby (Questionable) — Bigsby (abdomen) was limited at practice Friday.; Will Shipley (Questionable) — Shipley (foot) was a limited participant in Friday's practice.; DeVonta Smith (Questionable) — Smith (hamstring) is participating in Saturday's practice, Dave Zangaro of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports.; Hollywood Brown (Out) — Brown (ankle) has been ruled out ahead of Monday's game against the Bears.; Fred Johnson (Out) — Johnson (knee) has been ruled out ahead of Monday's game against the Bears.

Chicago Bears: Shemar Turner (PUP-R) — The Bears opened the 21-day practice window for Turner (knee) on Wednesday, Kevin Fishbain of The Athletic reports.; Noah Sewell (PUP-R) — The Bears opened the 21-day practice window for Sewell (Achilles) on Wednesday, Kevin Fishbain of The Athletic reports.; Kyler Gordon (PUP-R) — Gordon (calf) is away from the Bears and working with his own trainer to accelerate his recovery, Ian Rapoport of ESPN and NFL Network reports.; Coby Bryant (IR) — The Bears placed Bryant (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Dallis Flowers (IR) — ir; Jonathan Garvin (IR) — ir; Brittain Brown (IR) — Brown (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Bears on Sunday.; Tony Fields II (IR-R) — The Bears placed Fields (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return.; Ruben Hyppolite II (IR) — Hyppolite (shoulder) reverted to Chicago's injured reserve Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Nikola Kalinic (IR) — Knee; Hayden Large (IR) — The Bears placed Large (undisclosed) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Nephi Sewell (IR) — Concussion; Tyson Bagent (Questionable) — Bagent, who is listed as questionable for Monday's game against the Eagles, cleared concussion protocol Sunday and will serve as the Bears' No. 2 quarterback in Week 3, Jay Glazer reported on "Fox NFL Sunday."; Kyle Monangai (Questionable) — Monangai (knee) was listed as a DNP on Thursday's practice estimate.; Caleb Williams (Out) — Williams, who is ruled out for Monday's game against the Eagles, has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 hamstring strain, which doctors consider a 3-to-4-week injury, Adam Schefter and Ian Rapoport of ESPN report.; Tyrique Stevenson Sr. (Questionable) — Stevenson (hamstring) was a limited participant in Friday's practice.; Cairo Santos (Questionable) — Santos (right hip) didn't practice Friday.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Tyson Bagent is the projected starting quarterback for CHI

    6 Y/A

    In his first 2026 game, Tyson Bagent threw for 54 passing yards, completed 55.6% of his passes and averaged 6 yards per attempt. Last season over 3 games he threw for 47 yards, completed 75% and averaged 11.75 yards per attempt, 0-0 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 0-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 1 game in.

  • Jalen Hurts is the projected starting quarterback for PHI

    7.53 Y/A

    Through 2 games in 2026, Jalen Hurts threw for 467 passing yards, completed 64.5% of his passes and averaged 7.53 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3224 yards, completed 64.8% and averaged 7.1 yards per attempt, 25-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

TRENCHES

  • CHI: 212.5 rushing yards per game to PHI's 112.5

    100 YPG

    Chicago has controlled games on the ground through 2 games, while Philadelphia's rushing output looks close to its 17-game mark from last season. Chicago is well above last season's 144.5, so this is a new early-season shape rather than a long track record. The matchup puts Philadelphia's steadier run game against a Chicago offense built around the ground game so far.

  • CHI: 5.9 yards per rush attempt to PHI's 4.1

    1.8 Y/C

    Chicago has created far more room on the ground through 2 games, while Philadelphia is basically at its usual rushing level. Chicago rose from 4.75 last season, and Philadelphia sits near its 4.14 mark from 17 games. The early edge can shape this game if Chicago keeps the offense on schedule, though 2 games is too thin to call it a lasting identity.

PASS RUSH

  • CHI: 2.5 sacks recorded per game to PHI's 1.5

    1 SACKS

    PHI is at 1.5 sacks recorded per game over 2 games; CHI is at 2.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 27.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • CHI: 31 points per game to PHI's 24

    7 PPG

    PHI is at 24 points per game over 2 games; CHI is at 31 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 27. Last season PHI was at 22.3 over 17 games and CHI at 25.9 over 17 games.

  • CHI: 70 offensive plays per game to PHI's 62.5

    7.5 PLAYS

    PHI is at 62.5 offensive plays per game over 2 games; CHI is at 70 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 27. Last season PHI was at 59.4 over 17 games and CHI at 64.9 over 17 games.

TURNOVERS

  • CHI: 1.5 takeaways per game to PHI's 0

    1.5 TO

    Chicago has created takeaways through 2 games, while Philadelphia has not recorded one in 2 games. That is an extremely small sample, so the gap can move quickly with a single game. Ball security and short-field chances are the clearest way to use this early turnover contrast.

  • PHI: 0 fumbles lost per game to CHI's 1

    1 FUM

    PHI is at 0 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; CHI is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 27. Last season PHI was at 0.47 over 17 games and CHI at 0.24 over 17 games.

  • PHI: 1 turnover committed per game to CHI's 1.5

    0.5 TO

    PHI is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; CHI is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 27. Last season PHI was at 0.88 over 17 games and CHI at 0.65 over 17 games.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • CHI: 6.05 yards per play to PHI's 5.35

    0.7 Y/P

    Chicago has generated more per snap through 2 games, giving its offense the better early-down efficiency profile. Both teams sit above last season's rate, and Chicago's last game included a 32-yard pass to D'Andre Swift. Two games is a thin sample, but Chicago's ability to create chunk gains can shape how Philadelphia defends.

RED ZONE

  • PHI: 71.4% red-zone scoring rate to CHI's 57.1%

    14.3 PP

    PHI is at 71.4% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; CHI is at 57.1% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 27. Last season PHI was at 70.5% over 17 games and CHI at 58.2% over 17 games.

MISMATCH

  • CHI: 212.5 rush yards a game to PHI's 112.5

    212.5 VS 112.5

    Chicago is running for 212.5 yards a game through 2 games, while Philadelphia is at 112.5. Chicago has jumped from 144.5 rushing yards last season, while Philadelphia is near its 116.9 mark, so the Bears' surge carries the bigger small-sample warning. Chicago can use that ground output to control possessions; Philadelphia needs its run game to keep the Bears from dictating the game's pace.

COVERAGE

  • PHI: 5.05 yards per play allowed to CHI's 6.25

    1.2 Y/P

    Philadelphia has allowed much less on each snap than Chicago over 2 games. That points to a cleaner early all-around defensive profile, though a two-game sample can move sharply with one opponent or one game script. In PHI at CHI, yards per play helps frame which defense has limited efficient offense so far.

  • PHI: 166 passing yards allowed per game to CHI's 240

    74 YPG

    Philadelphia has allowed far less through the air than Chicago over 2 games. Two games is too little to establish a full pass-defense identity, and the sheet gives no opponent context behind either total. In PHI at CHI, passing efficiency is the area where Philadelphia's early edge faces its clearest test.

  • CHI: 31.8% third downs allowed to PHI's 39.3%

    7.5 PP

    PHI is at 39.3% third downs allowed over 2 games; CHI is at 31.8% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 27.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

  • CHI lead the series with PHI since 2025

    1-0 SERIES

    Chicago’s edge comes from one 24-15 win at Philadelphia on Nov 28. It was a solid road result, though one meeting cannot say much about a long-running series. The rematch shifts to Chicago, so the venue now favors the team that won the first game. The prior score gives bettors a baseline for how these teams matched up, not a full trend.

REPLACEMENT

  • Tyson Bagent (QB) is questionable for CHI

    QUESTIONABLE

    Bagent is questionable, though he cleared concussion protocol Sunday and is set to be Chicago's No. 2 quarterback for Week 3 against Philadelphia. That puts him behind the starter unless an in-game emergency changes the depth chart. His availability mainly matters as quarterback insurance for the Bears.

  • Braxton Jones (OT) is doubtful for CHI

    DOUBTFUL

    Jones hurt his knee during Monday night's game against the Eagles, and doubtful means he is unlikely to come back in. Losing an offensive tackle mid-game can put the quarterback under more pressure. The report does not name his replacement. For live betting, factor in a weaker Chicago line the rest of the way, then watch the next injury report for how long the knee keeps him out.

  • Saquon Barkley (RB) is questionable for PHI

    QUESTIONABLE

    Barkley is dealing with a stinger and was on the field for the open portion of Friday's practice. That is a good sign for playing at Chicago, though open-portion reports do not show how much work Barkley took. Tank Bigsby and Will Shipley are also questionable, so the whole Eagles backfield is uncertain and rushing props here carry extra risk.

  • Will Shipley (RB) is questionable for PHI

    QUESTIONABLE

    Shipley was limited Friday with a foot injury. Saquon Barkley and Tank Bigsby are also questionable, so Philadelphia's running back rotation at Chicago is hard to pin down until the final statuses come out.

  • DeVonta Smith (WR) is questionable for PHI

    QUESTIONABLE

    Smith (hamstring) is participating in Saturday's practice, Dave Zangaro of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports. Reported Sep 26.

  • Kyle Monangai (RB) is questionable for CHI

    QUESTIONABLE

    Monangai (knee) was listed as a DNP on Thursday's practice estimate. Reported Sep 24.

  • Tank Bigsby (RB) is questionable for PHI

    QUESTIONABLE

    Bigsby was limited Friday with an abdomen injury. With Saquon Barkley and Will Shipley also questionable, the Eagles backfield depth against Chicago is unsettled, and Bigsby's role depends heavily on Barkley's status.

  • Tanner McKee (QB) is inactive for PHI

    INACTIVE

    McKee is inactive as a coach's decision, with no injury, and will be the emergency third quarterback Monday night against the Bears. He would only play if both quarterbacks ahead of him went down. This has no real effect on the game.

  • Tyrique Stevenson Sr. (CB) is questionable for CHI

    QUESTIONABLE

    Stevenson (hamstring) was a limited participant in Friday's practice. Reported Sep 25.

  • Caleb Williams (QB) is inactive for CHI

    INACTIVE

    CHI lists Caleb Williams as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 28.

  • Andrew Mukuba (S) is questionable for PHI

    QUESTIONABLE

    Mukuba (knee) was limited in practice Thursday. Reported Sep 24.

  • Jalen Carter (DT) is questionable for PHI

    QUESTIONABLE

    Carter (wrist) was a limited participant in practice Thursday. Reported Sep 24.

  • Cole Payton (QB) is inactive for PHI

    INACTIVE

    PHI lists Cole Payton as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 28.

  • Jonathan Greenard (LB) is questionable for PHI

    QUESTIONABLE

    Greenard (pectoral) is listed as questionable ahead of Monday's game against the Bears. Reported Sep 26.

  • Cairo Santos (PK) is questionable for CHI

    QUESTIONABLE

    Santos (right hip) didn't practice Friday. Reported Sep 25.

  • Hollywood Brown (WR) is inactive for PHI

    INACTIVE

    PHI lists Hollywood Brown as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 28.

  • Shemar Turner (DT) is pup-r for CHI

    PUP-R

    The Bears opened the 21-day practice window for Turner (knee) on Wednesday, Kevin Fishbain of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 24.

  • Noah Sewell (LB) is pup-r for CHI

    PUP-R

    The Bears opened the 21-day practice window for Sewell (Achilles) on Wednesday, Kevin Fishbain of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 23.

  • Dallas Goedert (TE) is inactive for PHI

    INACTIVE

    PHI lists Dallas Goedert as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 28.

  • Jamree Kromah (DE) is inactive for CHI

    INACTIVE

    CHI lists Jamree Kromah as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 28.

  • Ozzy Trapilo (OT) is inactive for CHI

    INACTIVE

    CHI lists Ozzy Trapilo as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 28.

  • Fred Johnson (OT) is inactive for PHI

    INACTIVE

    PHI lists Fred Johnson as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 28.

  • AJ Epenesa (DE) is inactive for PHI

    INACTIVE

    PHI lists AJ Epenesa as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 28.

  • Jayden Loving (DT) is inactive for CHI

    INACTIVE

    CHI lists Jayden Loving as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 28.

  • Jordan McFadden (G) is inactive for CHI

    INACTIVE

    CHI lists Jordan McFadden as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 28.

  • Landon Dickerson (G) is on injured reserve for PHI

    IR

    The Eagles placed Dickerson (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday, Chris McPherson of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 16.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Shemar Turner

    Out

    Knee · Limited practice · Out

  • Dallas Goedert

    Out

    Knee · Did not practice · Out

  • Hollywood Brown

    Out

    Ankle · Did not practice · Out

  • Caleb Williams

    Out

    Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

  • Noah Sewell

    Out

    Achilles · Limited practice · Out

  • Fred Johnson

    Out

    Knee · Did not practice · Out

  • Tyson Bagent

    Questionable

    Concussion · Full practice · Questionable

  • Jonathan Greenard

    Questionable

    Pectoral · Full practice · Questionable

  • Will Shipley

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Grady Jarrett

    FP

    Full practice

  • Tyler Steen

    FP

    Full practice

  • Cairo Santos

    FP

    Full practice

  • Ozzy Trapilo

    FP

    Full practice

  • Elijah Moore

    FP

    Full practice

  • Darnell Wright

    FP

    Full practice

  • Joe Thuney

    FP

    Full practice

  • Xavier Woods

    FP

    Full practice

  • DeVonta Smith

    FP

    Full practice

  • Andrew Mukuba

    FP

    Full practice

  • Tyrique Stevenson Sr.

    FP

    Full practice

  • Saquon Barkley

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jalen Carter

    FP

    Full practice

  • Cooper DeJean

    FP

    Full practice

  • Kyle Monangai

    FP

    Full practice

  • Dayo Odeyingbo

    FP

    Full practice

  • Neville Gallimore

    FP

    Full practice

  • Tank Bigsby

    FP

    Full practice

  • Malik Muhammad II

    FP

    Full practice

  • D'Andre Swift

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • PHI: 100% fourth-down conversion rate to CHI's 50%

    50 PP

    Philadelphia has converted every fourth-down try through 2 games, while Chicago has converted half of its chances. Last season these teams were nearly identical at 52.4% and 51.7% over 17 games, so the current split rests on a very short sample. Philadelphia's willingness and success on fourth down can matter for drive length, but this is a spot where a few plays can erase the gap.

  • PHI: 37.5 penalty yards per game to CHI's 57.5

    20 YDS

    PHI is at 37.5 penalty yards per game over 2 games; CHI is at 57.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 27. Last season PHI was at 63.1 over 17 games and CHI at 57.1 over 17 games.

  • PHI (2-0) at CHI (1-1)

    +10 PT GAP

    Philadelphia is 2-0, but Chicago's +16 point margin is stronger than Philadelphia's +6 despite its 1-1 record. The Eagles won their only road game, while the Bears lost their only home game, adding a venue edge to Philadelphia's undefeated start. Chicago's margin shows its record may undersell it, but the home result gives Philadelphia a cleaner fit for this spot.

AFTER GARY

  • CHI +3.5 → +3.5

    GARY +1.61PP

    Gary's number was 3.5; the same book now shows 3.5.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 24, 2026 at 4:27 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    SAQUON BARKLEYRUSHING ATTEMPTS UNDER 17.5
    NFLPhiladelphia Eagles· -110

    Saquon Barkley
    Rushing Attempts under 17.5

    -110 · CASHED · ACTUAL 15

    Philadelphia Eagles

    I'm on Saquon Barkley under 17.5 rushing attempts at -110.

    This number looks like it was set on last year's workload, and Barkley isn't getting that workload this season. Through two games he has 4 carries and 15 carries. The 15 came in the opener against Washington, where he was healthy, the clear lead back, and on the field for 39 of 55 snaps. He still finished under this line. In Tennessee a stinger cost him the first quarter and he played 12 of 75 snaps. Will Shipley took about half the offensive snaps that day and Tank Bigsby handled 13 carries. Sean Mannion's offense spreads the backfield work, and it did that in the opener too, before the injury.

    Barkley is questionable with that stinger. He was taking part in practice Friday and I expect him to play. I don't expect Philadelphia to give a back coming off a neck and shoulder injury 18 or more carries on a Monday night when Shipley and Bigsby are both available. Chicago has given up 204 yards on 44 running back carries across two games, so Barkley may run efficiently. This bet is about how many carries he gets, and those are being split three ways.

    The way I see the game going also helps. My side is Chicago keeping this close with a run first plan that eats the clock. Philadelphia has run about 61 plays a game. A limited number of snaps and a three back rotation make 18 carries hard to reach.

    The strongest argument against me is last season. In 2025 Barkley went past this number more often than not, with games of 19, 21, 22, 20, 26 and 22 carries. The Eagles also run more than the situation calls for this year. If they get ahead early against Case Keenum, they could lean on Barkley to close the game out. Two games is a thin sample for a new scheme. I'm trusting it because the rotation showed up in both of them, with Barkley healthy and with him hurt.

  • GARY'S PICK
    SAQUON BARKLEYRECEPTIONS UNDER 2.5
    NFLPhiladelphia Eagles· -175

    Saquon Barkley
    Receptions under 2.5

    -175 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

    Philadelphia Eagles

    Saquon Barkley under 2.5 receptions at -175. That's a lot of juice, and I'm still willing to lay it for a player whose role in the passing game has been this small.

    Barkley has one catch in each of his two games this season, on two targets per game. That adds up to 4 of Philadelphia's 56 targets. In Mannion's offense Jalen Hurts is taking more snaps under center than at any point in his career and throwing between the numbers to DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks. Smith has become the clear first read since A.J. Brown was traded. Shipley was on the field for about half the snaps in Tennessee, which takes away passing down work that used to go to Barkley. The stinger is another reason for the staff to keep him out of space as a receiver. Chicago's defense also doesn't give running backs many catches: six by the whole position group over two games. The market has priced him the same way all month. Last week the line was 1.5, and he finished with one.

    The case against me is real. Dallas Goedert is out, and he was the short area safety valve. Hollywood Brown is out as well. With Johnny Mundt and E.J. Jenkins at tight end, more of Hurts's checkdowns could go to the back. In 2025 Barkley had three or more catches in a few games, including a 7 catch game, so he can clear this number when the script calls for it. Those six catches Chicago allowed to backs went for 100 yards, which means the Bears have let backs get loose in space. The price means one loss wipes out almost two wins. I'm still backing the role he has actually played in this offense over two games.

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