Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks
O/U 46.5 · SPREAD Seattle Seahawks -3 · Lumen Field
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Chicago Bears +3.5 -120
- Published odds
- -120
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 34-17
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 59 moves| Market | Opened Oct 25 6:11 PM | Close Mon 8:06 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 (-102) | +½ |
| TOTAL | 47 (-110) | 46.5 (-108) | −½ |
| MONEYLINE | Seattle Seahawks -165 | Seattle Seahawks -175 | −10 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 25 6:11 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-110) | 47 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -165 · Chicago Bears +140 |
| Oct 25 7:23 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-108) | 47 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -165 · Chicago Bears +140 |
| Oct 25 11:53 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-115) | 47 (-108) | Seattle Seahawks -185 · Chicago Bears +150 |
| Oct 26 12:23 AM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-115) | 46.5 (-112) | Seattle Seahawks -185 · Chicago Bears +150 |
| Oct 26 6:00 AM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-112) | 46.5 (-112) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
| Oct 26 8:31 AM | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 (+100) | 46.5 (-112) | Seattle Seahawks -185 · Chicago Bears +150 |
| Oct 26 9:00 AM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-118) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
| Oct 26 10:31 AM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-120) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -185 · Chicago Bears +150 |
| Oct 26 12:02 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-118) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
| Oct 26 1:02 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-112) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
| Oct 26 1:32 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +140 |
| Oct 26 2:03 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
| Oct 26 3:03 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-118) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
| Oct 27 2:01 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-115) | 46.5 (-112) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
| Oct 27 4:02 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-112) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
| Oct 28 6:00 AM | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 (-105) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
| Oct 28 7:01 AM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-118) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
| Oct 28 1:48 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 (-105) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
| Oct 28 4:48 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-118) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
| Oct 28 9:19 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-118) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
| Thu 11:02 AM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-112) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +140 |
| Thu 3:02 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-115) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
| Fri 12:01 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-115) | 46.5 (-108) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
| Fri 6:02 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-115) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
| Sat 1:32 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-115) | 46.5 (-108) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
| Sat 3:02 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-115) | 46.5 (-108) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +150 |
| Sat 6:04 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-112) | 46.5 (-108) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +140 |
| Sat 8:05 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-115) | 46.5 (-108) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
| Sun 6:00 AM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-115) | 46.5 (-108) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +150 |
| Sun 7:01 AM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-112) | 46.5 (-108) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +140 |
| Sun 8:01 AM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-115) | 46.5 (-108) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +150 |
| Sun 8:31 AM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-118) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
| Sun 10:51 AM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-115) | 46.5 (-108) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
| Sun 12:23 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-115) | 46.5 (-108) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +150 |
| Sun 6:10 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-112) | 46.5 (-108) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +140 |
| Sun 6:50 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-118) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
| Sun 8:50 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 (-105) | 46.5 (-108) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
| Mon 9:00 AM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-118) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
| Mon 9:31 AM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-118) | 46.5 (-108) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
| Mon 10:01 AM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-125) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
| Mon 10:31 AM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-118) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -185 · Chicago Bears +150 |
| Mon 11:01 AM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-118) | 46.5 (-108) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
| Mon 11:31 AM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-118) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
| Mon 12:31 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-112) | 46.5 (-108) | Seattle Seahawks -165 · Chicago Bears +140 |
| Mon 1:01 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-130) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -190 · Chicago Bears +155 |
| Mon 1:32 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 (-102) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -190 · Chicago Bears +155 |
| Mon 2:32 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-115) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
| Mon 3:02 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3 (-120) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -190 · Chicago Bears +155 |
| Mon 3:32 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 (-102) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -190 · Chicago Bears +155 |
| Mon 4:02 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 (-102) | 46.5 (-108) | Seattle Seahawks -190 · Chicago Bears +155 |
| Mon 5:02 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 (-102) | 46.5 (-108) | Seattle Seahawks -185 · Chicago Bears +150 |
| Mon 5:15 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 (-102) | 46.5 (-108) | Seattle Seahawks -190 · Chicago Bears +155 |
| Mon 6:06 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 (-102) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -185 · Chicago Bears +155 |
| Mon 6:26 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 (-102) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -185 · Chicago Bears +150 |
| Mon 6:36 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 (-102) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -190 · Chicago Bears +155 |
| Mon 7:06 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 (-102) | 46.5 (-108) | Seattle Seahawks -190 · Chicago Bears +155 |
| Mon 7:16 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 (-102) | 46.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks -190 · Chicago Bears +155 |
| Mon 7:26 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 (-102) | 46.5 (-108) | Seattle Seahawks -190 · Chicago Bears +155 |
| Mon 7:56 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 (-102) | 46.5 (-108) | Seattle Seahawks -185 · Chicago Bears +150 |
| CLOSEMon 8:06 PM | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 (-102) | 46.5 (-108) | Seattle Seahawks -175 · Chicago Bears +145 |
The read
Monday night at Lumen Field, with a forecast of 46 degrees and almost no wind. The Bears come in 5-2 with Caleb Williams back under center and 11 days of rest. Seattle is laying 3.5, and I'm taking the points.
The biggest reason is Seattle's offensive line. Left tackle Charles Cross is out with a high ankle sprain, and Josh Jones starts. Jones's heaviest workload this season was 19% of snaps last week, and 5% or less before that. Sam Darnold's turnovers rise when the pocket breaks down. San Francisco pressured him on 40% of dropbacks, and Seattle had four giveaways. Denver got to 33% with 17 hits, and Seattle had three more. Kansas City pressured him only 7%, and that was the 20-3 win. Quenton Nelson helps inside, but not on the edge.
Chicago's pass rush gets help right on time. Montez Sweat is back from suspension; he had five pressures on Bryce Young in Week 1. Jeffery Simmons debuts on a cut-down playbook, so I'm treating him as a bonus.
Darnold also gives the ball away: 8 interceptions in 5 starts, 12 Seattle giveaways in those games, and two returned for touchdowns. Williams is protecting it. Over the last two games, Williams is 52-of-69 for 613 yards, 3 touchdowns and no picks, and Chicago scored 7 touchdowns on 8 red-zone trips.
The number fits too. Four of Seattle's seven games were decided by 3 points or fewer, and a Seattle field-goal win still cashes this ticket. Chicago also has 11 days of rest to Seattle's 8.
What worries me is that Seattle's defense is the best unit on the field. Opponents have converted 26 of 93 third downs, and neither Kansas City nor Denver had a single play of 20 yards. Williams took 7 sacks in the last two games. Jason Myers is 14-of-15 on field goals, while Cairo Santos is 11-of-15. And Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 100-plus yards in 6 of 7 games. He faces a secondary that gave Drake Maye 321 last week, with Malik Muhammad questionable.
At -120, the half point isn't cheap, so this is a normal-size bet, not a big one. At +3 I'd pass.
Injuries noted
Chicago Bears: Coby Bryant (IR) — Coach Ben Johnson said Wednesday that Bryant (knee) will start running again in the "near future."; Dallis Flowers (IR) — ir; Brittain Brown (IR) — Brown (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Bears on Sunday.; Tony Fields II (IR-R) — The Bears placed Fields (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return.; Ruben Hyppolite II (IR) — Hyppolite (shoulder) reverted to Chicago's injured reserve Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Nikola Kalinic (IR) — ir; Hayden Large (IR) — The Bears placed Large (undisclosed) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Nephi Sewell (IR) — The Bears placed Sewell (concussion) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Kyle Monangai (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: thumb, toe; practice by report day: Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sun, Nov 1 DNP. Head coach Ben Johnson told reporters Saturday that Monangai (thumb/toe) will not play against the Seahawks on Monday.; Braxton Jones (IR) — The Bears placed Jones (knee) on injured reserve Saturday.; Dayo Odeyingbo (IR) — The Bears placed Odeyingbo (quadriceps) on injured reserve Saturday.; Malik Muhammad II (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: toe; practice by report day: Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sun, Nov 1 Limited. Muhammad (toe) is listed as questionable for Monday's game against the Seahawks.; Cole Kmet (IR) — The Bears placed Kmet (knee) on injured reserve Friday.; D'Marco Jackson (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle; practice by report day: Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sun, Nov 1 Full. Jackson (ankle) is questionable to suit up Monday versus Seattle.; T.J. Edwards (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: hamstring; practice by report day: Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sun, Nov 1 Full.; Jack Sanborn (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: concussion; practice by report day: Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sun, Nov 1 Full.; Colston Loveland (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: neck; practice by report day: Sun, Nov 1 Full.
Seattle Seahawks: Robbie Ouzts (IR) — ir; Jake Bobo (IR) — The Seahawks placed Bobo (knee) on injured reserve Saturday.; Bud Clark (IR); Mason Richman (IR) — The Seahawks placed Richman (leg) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Jadarian Price (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: chest; practice by report day: Sun, Nov 1 Full. Price (chest) doesn't have a designation for Monday's game against the Bears but remains on injured reserve.; Julian Neal (IR) — The Seahawks placed Neal (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday.; Elijah Arroyo (IR) — Head coach Mike Macdonald told reporters Friday that Arroyo (shoulder) underwent surgery and will likely be out for the rest of the season.; Drew Lock (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: elbow; practice by report day: Sun, Nov 1 Limited. Lock (elbow) is listed as questionable for Monday's game against the Bears.; Rashid Shaheed (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Sun, Nov 1 DNP. Shaheed (knee) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Bears.; Velus Jones Jr. (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: hamstring; practice by report day: Sun, Nov 1 DNP. Jones (hamstring) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Bears.; Charles Cross (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle; practice by report day: Sun, Nov 1 DNP. Cross (ankle) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Bears.; Uchenna Nwosu (Doubtful) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle; practice by report day: Sun, Nov 1 DNP.; Patrick O'Connell (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: toe; practice by report day: Sun, Nov 1 DNP.; Anthony Bradford (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Sun, Nov 1 Limited.; Brandon Pili (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: back; practice by report day: Sun, Nov 1 DNP.; DeMarcus Lawrence (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: not injury related - resting player; practice by report day: Sun, Nov 1 Full.; Leonard Williams (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: achilles; practice by report day: Sun, Nov 1 Full.; Quenton Nelson (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Sun, Nov 1 Full.; Chazz Surratt (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: calf; practice by report day: Sun, Nov 1 Full.; Brady Russell (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: wrist; practice by report day: Sun, Nov 1 Full.; Jaxon Smith-Njigba (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: not injury related - resting player; practice by report day: Sun, Nov 1 Full.; Drake Thomas (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle; practice by report day: Sun, Nov 1 Full.; Zach Charbonnet (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Sun, Nov 1 Full.; Byron Murphy II (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: back; practice by report day: Sun, Nov 1 Full.; Tyrice Knight (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: hip; practice by report day: Sun, Nov 1 Full.; Connor O'Toole (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: hamstring; practice by report day: Sun, Nov 1 Full.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Caleb Williams is the projected starting quarterback for CHI
8.23 Y/AThrough 4 games in 2026, Caleb Williams threw for 1020 passing yards, completed 71% of his passes and averaged 8.23 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3942 yards, completed 58.1% and averaged 6.94 yards per attempt, 27-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.
Sam Darnold is the projected starting quarterback for SEA
7.29 Y/AThrough 6 games in 2026, Sam Darnold threw for 1290 passing yards, completed 62.1% of his passes and averaged 7.29 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4048 yards, completed 67.7% and averaged 8.49 yards per attempt, 25-14 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 8-8 touchdown-to-interception line is 6 games in.
TRENCHES
CHI: 154.3 rushing yards per game to SEA's 113.7
40.6 YPGChicago runs for 154.3 a game, up from 144.5 last season, so the Bears are a true run team over 7 games. Seattle is at 113.7, a bit below 123.3 last season. In Seattle, Chicago will try to dictate tempo on the ground and limit possessions, which favors a slower game and puts pressure on Seattle to stop the run early.
CHI: 4.3 yards per rush attempt to SEA's 3.79
0.51 Y/CCHI is at 4.3 yards per rush attempt over 7 games; SEA is at 3.79 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Nov 1. Last season CHI was at 4.75 over 17 games and SEA at 4.17 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPT
CHI: 35:30 time of possession per game to SEA's 31:45
3:45 TOPChicago holds the ball for 35:30 a game over 7 games, up from 30:59 last season, a big change for a team that also goes for it more on fourth down. Seattle is at 31:45. Long possessions like this mean fewer total drives in a game, which tends to keep scoring down. Some cooling is likely, but this is how Chicago wants to play.
CHI: 72.1 offensive plays per game to SEA's 64
8.1 PLAYSCHI is at 72.1 offensive plays per game over 7 games; SEA is at 64 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Nov 1. Last season CHI was at 64.9 over 17 games and SEA at 59.7 over 17 games.
TURNOVERS
CHI: 0.71 interceptions thrown per game to SEA's 1.14
0.43 INTCHI is at 0.71 interceptions thrown per game over 7 games; SEA is at 1.14 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Nov 1. Last season CHI was at 0.41 over 17 games and SEA at 0.88 over 17 games.
RED ZONE
CHI: 64.7% red-zone scoring allowed to SEA's 78.6%
13.9 PPCHI is at 64.7% red-zone scoring allowed over 7 games; SEA is at 78.6% over 7 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Nov 1.
MISMATCH
CHI: 154.3 rush yards a game to SEA's 113.7
154.3 VS 113.7Chicago is running for 154.3 yards a game through 7 games, up from 144.5 last season, so the Bears' ground game is a two-year trait. Seattle is at 113.7 over 7 games, down from 123.3. The gap looks durable. Seattle has to slow the Bears' run game at home and force Chicago into passing downs, so the Bears' ability to stay on schedule is how to frame this game.
COVERAGE
SEA: 3.96 yards per play allowed to CHI's 6.1
2.14 Y/PSeattle is allowing 3.96 yards per play over 7 games, and Chicago is allowing 6.1. Per-play numbers settle faster than most stats, so seven games makes Seattle's look like a real strength, though the opponents behind it aren't listed here. Chicago's offense will find yards harder to come by than Seattle's offense will. Long, sustained drives favor the Seattle side in this matchup.
SEA: 144.4 passing yards allowed per game to CHI's 225.9
81.4 YPGCHI is at 225.9 passing yards allowed per game over 7 games; SEA is at 144.4 over 7 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Nov 1.
REPLACEMENT
Beau Stephens (G) is out for SEA
OUTSEA lists Beau Stephens as out on the injury report. Reported Nov 2.
Jordan McFadden (G) is out for CHI
OUTCHI lists Jordan McFadden as out on the injury report. Reported Nov 2.
Jordan van den Berg (DT) is out for CHI
OUTCHI lists Jordan van den Berg as out on the injury report. Reported Nov 2.
Jayden Loving (DT) is out for CHI
OUTCHI lists Jayden Loving as out on the injury report. Reported Nov 2.
Charles Cross (OT) is out for SEA
OUTSEA lists Charles Cross as out on the injury report. Reported Nov 2.
Brandon Pili (DT) is out for SEA
OUTPili (back) is inactive for Monday night's game against the Bears, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports. Reported Nov 3.
Uchenna Nwosu (LB) is out for SEA
OUTNwosu (ankle) is inactive for Monday's clash with the Bears, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports. Reported Nov 3.
Velus Jones Jr. (RB) is out for SEA
OUTVelus Jones Jr. is listed out for Seattle against Chicago on Monday night. The sheet gives no injury or role detail, so his absence mainly affects depth in the Seahawks' backfield.
Rashid Shaheed (WR) is out for SEA
OUTRashid Shaheed is listed out for Seattle's Monday night game against Chicago. The sheet gives no injury or timeline. His targets get spread across the rest of the Seahawks' receivers for this one.
Malik Muhammad II (CB) is out for CHI
OUTMalik Muhammad II is inactive Monday night in Seattle with a toe injury. Chicago's cornerback group plays without him, and the sheet does not say who covers his snaps. An inactive tag is final for this game.
Drew Lock (QB) is out for SEA
OUTDrew Lock is inactive as a coach's decision for Monday's game against Chicago. No injury is involved, so this is a backup quarterback sitting out and it has no bearing on Seattle's starter or game plan.
Case Keenum (QB) is out for CHI
OUTCase Keenum is inactive as a coach's decision and will serve as Chicago's emergency third quarterback Monday night in Seattle. This is a depth move with no injury involved, so it does not change who starts or how the Bears run their offense.
Kyle Monangai (RB) is out for CHI
OUTKyle Monangai is listed out for Chicago's Monday night game at Seattle. The sheet gives no injury or timeline, so his carries go to whoever else is in the Bears' backfield this week.
Coby Bryant (S) is on injured reserve for CHI
IRCoach Ben Johnson said Wednesday that Bryant (knee) will start running again in the "near future," Courtney Cronin of ESPN.com reports. Reported Oct 28.
Cole Kmet (TE) is on injured reserve for CHI
IRThe Bears placed Kmet (knee) on injured reserve Friday. Reported Oct 23.
Elijah Arroyo (TE) is on injured reserve for SEA
IRHead coach Mike Macdonald told reporters Friday that Arroyo (shoulder) underwent surgery and will likely be out for the rest of the season, Curtis Crabtree of Fox 13 Seattle reports. Reported Oct 23.
PRACTICE REPORT
Velus Jones Jr.
OutHamstring · Did not practice · Out
Kyle Monangai
OutThumb, Toe · Did not practice · Out
Rashid Shaheed
OutKnee · Did not practice · Out
Charles Cross
OutAnkle · Did not practice · Out
Uchenna Nwosu
DoubtfulAnkle · Did not practice · Doubtful
Drew Lock
QuestionableElbow · Limited practice · Questionable
D'Marco Jackson
QuestionableAnkle · Full practice · Questionable
Patrick O'Connell
QuestionableToe · Did not practice · Questionable
Brandon Pili
QuestionableBack · Did not practice · Questionable
Anthony Bradford
QuestionableKnee · Limited practice · Questionable
Malik Muhammad II
QuestionableToe · Limited practice · Questionable
Byron Murphy II
FPFull practice
Jack Sanborn
FPFull practice
Zach Charbonnet
FPFull practice
Jadarian Price
FPFull practice
DeMarcus Lawrence
FPFull practice
Brady Russell
FPFull practice
Leonard Williams
FPFull practice
Tyrice Knight
FPFull practice
Drake Thomas
FPFull practice
Chazz Surratt
FPFull practice
Colston Loveland
FPFull practice
T.J. Edwards
FPFull practice
Connor O'Toole
FPFull practice
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
FPFull practice
Quenton Nelson
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
CHI: 2.43 fourth-down attempts per game to SEA's 1.14
1.29 ATT/GChicago goes for it on fourth down far more than Seattle, 2.43 attempts a game to 1.14 over 7 games each, and both teams are more aggressive than last season. That is a coaching habit, so it should stick. Chicago's approach adds swings both ways: more extended drives, but also short fields for Seattle when tries fail.
CHI has 3 more days of rest
11d vs 8dChicago gets 11 days to prepare with a bye behind it, while Seattle is on 8, so the Bears have had three extra days to heal, install a plan and travel without rushing. Teams coming off a bye usually show up healthier and better schemed, and the long trip west matters less with that cushion. Seattle's 8 days is close to a normal week, so this is a small edge for Chicago. It favors the Bears early in the game, before in-game adjustments even things out.
CHI: 44% third-down conversion rate to SEA's 38.9%
5.1 PPCHI is at 44% third-down conversion rate over 7 games; SEA is at 38.9% over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Nov 1. Last season CHI was at 42.7% over 17 games and SEA at 39.8% over 17 games.
CHI (5-2) at SEA (4-3)
+6 PT GAPChicago is 5-2 at +37, and Seattle is 4-3 at +43, so the Seahawks have the slightly better margin despite the worse record. Seattle is 3-1 at home and Chicago is 2-1 on the road, both small samples. The Bears have won 2 straight to Seattle's 1. These teams look closer than one game in the standings, so the home split is the cleanest edge on the sheet.
AFTER GARY
CHI +3.5 → +3.5
GARY +0.41PPGary's number was 3.5; the same book now shows 3.5.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 29, 2026 at 4:20 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, caesars, draftkings, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
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- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKCALEB WILLIAMSPASSING YARDS UNDER 224.5
I respect what Caleb did in his last two games. He threw for 308 against New England and 305 in Atlanta. Neither of those secondaries looks anything like the one he sees tonight. Seattle has played seven games and hasn't allowed a quarterback more than 189 passing yards in any of them. Mahomes got 165 here last week. Purdy and Herbert both stalled at 189. Bo Nix managed 107. That's a full season of evidence against good passers and bad ones.
The Chicago pass game is also thinner than it was. Cole Kmet went on IR, so Loveland is the only tight end they trust and Stephen Carlson gets elevated to fill snaps. Monangai is out, which puts more of the load on Swift and keeps the Bears leaning on the run to protect a lead or stay close. Ben Johnson ran the ball 30 times in the win over New England. In a game the market sees as tight, I expect that script again, with Caleb picking up chunks with his legs instead of through the air. Lumen Field on a Monday night won't make protection calls easy either.
The Bears probably need more than 224 to win this game, and Seattle's defense has shown all year that it won't give up that much. I'll take the under at a short price.
- GARY'S PICKJAXON SMITH-NJIGBARECEIVING YARDS OVER 99.5
Jaxon is the Seattle offense. He's put up 150, 134, 102, 128, 155 and 122 this year, and the one game he came up short was a 20 target day for the whole team against the Chargers. Rashid Shaheed is out tonight, and he was the only other receiver Seattle used to stretch the field. Tory Horton moves up, but he has caught one ball in his last three games. Kupp is a short area option at this stage. That leaves even more of the throws for Jaxon, and he's already getting double digit targets most weeks.
Chicago's pass defense has holes. Jordan Love hung 286 yards on its receivers, Bryce Young got over 200, and Penix found 158 even while Chicago was sacking him five times. Malik Muhammad is questionable with a toe injury that knocked him out of the New England game, and he was the corner Green Bay went after again and again.
The risk is protection. Charles Cross is out, Josh Jones starts at left tackle, and Montez Sweat comes back alongside Jeffery Simmons. More pressure usually means Darnold throws earlier, and his first read is Jaxon on a slant or a crosser where he can turn a short catch into a long one. Darnold threw for 278 in Denver while under pressure all game, and Jaxon still finished with 134. He's chasing a historic season in a home night game. I'm taking the over.
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