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NFL · Thu, Oct 22 · 8:15 PM

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears

O/U 50.5 · SPREAD Chicago Bears -3 · Soldier Field

GARY'S PICK
Patriots +3
NFL@ Bears· -115

Patriots
+3

-115 · LOST · NE 24 · CHI 30

Bears

The pick & result

Published pick
New England Patriots +3 -115
Published odds
-115
Result
Lost
Final score
24-30

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 44 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 18 6:32 PM
Close
Thu 8:14 PM
Move
SPREADChicago Bears -2.5 (-118)Chicago Bears -3 (+100)+½
TOTAL50 (-108)50.5 (-112)+½
MONEYLINEChicago Bears -145Chicago Bears -155−10
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 18 6:32 PMChicago Bears -2.5 (-118)50 (-108)Chicago Bears -145 · New England Patriots +120
Oct 18 6:52 PMChicago Bears -3 (+100)50 (-108)Chicago Bears -150 · New England Patriots +125
Oct 18 7:22 PMChicago Bears -3 (-102)50 (-108)Chicago Bears -145 · New England Patriots +125
Oct 18 8:03 PMChicago Bears -3 (-102)50 (-108)Chicago Bears -150 · New England Patriots +125
Oct 18 8:53 PMChicago Bears -3 (-102)50 (-108)Chicago Bears -155 · New England Patriots +130
Oct 18 9:23 PMChicago Bears -3 (-102)50 (-108)Chicago Bears -160 · New England Patriots +130
Oct 19 12:23 AMChicago Bears -3 (-102)50 (-108)Chicago Bears -155 · New England Patriots +130
Oct 19 12:53 AMChicago Bears -3 (-108)50 (-108)Chicago Bears -165 · New England Patriots +135
Oct 19 6:30 AMChicago Bears -3 (-105)49.5 (-112)Chicago Bears -160 · New England Patriots +135
Oct 19 7:01 AMChicago Bears -3 (-105)50 (-108)Chicago Bears -165 · New England Patriots +135
Oct 19 7:31 AMChicago Bears -3 (-105)50 (-110)Chicago Bears -160 · New England Patriots +135
Oct 19 8:31 AMChicago Bears -3 (-108)50 (-110)Chicago Bears -165 · New England Patriots +135
Oct 19 9:00 AMChicago Bears -3 (-108)50 (-110)Chicago Bears -160 · New England Patriots +135
Oct 19 10:01 AMChicago Bears -3 (-108)50 (-110)Chicago Bears -160 · New England Patriots +135
Oct 19 1:31 PMChicago Bears -3 (-108)50.5 (-110)Chicago Bears -160 · New England Patriots +135
Oct 19 2:01 PMChicago Bears -3 (-108)50.5 (-112)Chicago Bears -160 · New England Patriots +135
Oct 19 7:57 PMChicago Bears -3 (-105)50.5 (-110)Chicago Bears -160 · New England Patriots +135
Oct 19 8:47 PMChicago Bears -3 (-108)50.5 (-110)Chicago Bears -160 · New England Patriots +135
Oct 19 9:10 PMChicago Bears -3 (-108)50.5 (-112)Chicago Bears -160 · New England Patriots +135
Oct 19 9:54 PMChicago Bears -3 (-108)50.5 (-110)Chicago Bears -160 · New England Patriots +135
Oct 20 7:32 AMChicago Bears -3 (-108)50.5 (-110)Chicago Bears -155 · New England Patriots +130
Oct 20 10:01 AMChicago Bears -3 (-105)50.5 (-110)Chicago Bears -160 · New England Patriots +130
Oct 20 10:44 AMChicago Bears -3 (-105)50.5 (-110)Chicago Bears -155 · New England Patriots +130
Oct 20 11:44 AMChicago Bears -3 (-108)50.5 (-110)Chicago Bears -155 · New England Patriots +130
Oct 20 12:45 PMChicago Bears -3 (-108)50.5 (-110)Chicago Bears -160 · New England Patriots +130
Oct 20 2:46 PMChicago Bears -3 (-102)50.5 (-110)Chicago Bears -155 · New England Patriots +130
Oct 20 8:47 PMChicago Bears -3 (-102)50.5 (-110)Chicago Bears -160 · New England Patriots +130
Oct 21 9:00 AMChicago Bears -3 (-102)50.5 (-110)Chicago Bears -155 · New England Patriots +130
Oct 21 5:32 PMChicago Bears -3 (-102)50.5 (-110)Chicago Bears -160 · New England Patriots +130
Oct 21 10:52 PMChicago Bears -3 (-105)50.5 (-110)Chicago Bears -155 · New England Patriots +130
Oct 22 12:22 AMChicago Bears -3 (-108)50.5 (-110)Chicago Bears -155 · New England Patriots +130
Oct 22 5:00 AMChicago Bears -3 (-105)50.5 (-112)Chicago Bears -155 · New England Patriots +130
Thu 8:00 AMChicago Bears -3 (-108)50.5 (-112)Chicago Bears -160 · New England Patriots +130
Thu 9:00 AMChicago Bears -3 (-105)50.5 (-112)Chicago Bears -150 · New England Patriots +125
Thu 10:27 AMChicago Bears -3 (-108)50.5 (-112)Chicago Bears -155 · New England Patriots +130
Thu 12:28 PMChicago Bears -3 (-108)50.5 (-112)Chicago Bears -160 · New England Patriots +130
Thu 12:58 PMChicago Bears -3 (-102)50.5 (-110)Chicago Bears -150 · New England Patriots +125
Thu 1:59 PMChicago Bears -3 (-102)50.5 (-110)Chicago Bears -155 · New England Patriots +130
Thu 3:29 PMChicago Bears -3 (-102)50.5 (-110)Chicago Bears -160 · New England Patriots +130
Thu 3:59 PMChicago Bears -3 (-102)50.5 (-110)Chicago Bears -155 · New England Patriots +130
Thu 4:29 PMChicago Bears -3 (+100)50.5 (-110)Chicago Bears -155 · New England Patriots +130
Thu 5:23 PMChicago Bears -3 (+100)50.5 (-115)Chicago Bears -155 · New England Patriots +130
Thu 6:43 PMChicago Bears -3 (+100)51 (-108)Chicago Bears -155 · New England Patriots +130
Thu 6:53 PMChicago Bears -3 (+100)50.5 (-118)Chicago Bears -155 · New England Patriots +130
CLOSEThu 8:14 PMChicago Bears -3 (+100)50.5 (-112)Chicago Bears -155 · New England Patriots +130

The read

Two 4-2 teams, two quarterbacks from the 2024 draft class, and a Thursday night at Soldier Field where the Patriots arrive missing a big piece of their offensive line. The Bears are laying 3, and I'm taking the points.

This line opened Bears -2.5 and dipped to -1.5 the morning Odeyingbo went on IR. It jumped to 3 on Sunday night after New England lost three starting linemen against the Jets. The market has already charged the Patriots for that line. The question is whether it charged too much.

I think it did. A patchwork line gets exposed by edge pressure. New England will likely start Campbell, Rouse, Wilson, Pryor and Lomu, with Moses questionable. Chicago is without both starting ends, Sweat and Odeyingbo, so the matchup that should hurt New England most is missing its sharpest piece.

Then look at what New England does well against what Chicago does badly. The Bears allow 6.7 yards per play, worst in the league, after ranking 28th last year. That's who they are. The Patriots want play-action, max protection and shots to A.J. Brown and Hunter Henry. The linebackers who have to read those fakes are thin: Edwards is doubtful and Sanborn is out. Maye has been steady across two seasons, at +0.17 EPA per dropback this year.

So far the Bears are an average team per play, 13th on offense and 16th on defense. Williams' hot start covers three games. In last week's return the offense was below zero per play, and the defense did much of the work in that 31-23 win.

The risk is New England's secondary. Davis, Prunty and Canada are out, and Byard, Woodson and Elliss are questionable. Chicago's passing game lives short, which blunts some of that, but if both safeties sit, this gets tighter.

For Chicago to cover, the Bears need to win by four, and a field-goal win is a push. I'll take the side with the healthy quarterback and weapons, plus the points. Check the inactives about 90 minutes before kickoff.

Injuries noted

New England Patriots: Harold Landry III (PUP-R) — Landry (undisclosed) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Patriots on Sunday.; Julian Hill (IR) — The Patriots placed Hill (knee) on IR on Monday, Evan Lazar of the team's official site reports.; Myles Montgomery (IR); Bryce Baringer (IR) — The Patriots placed Baringer (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday.; Marcus Bryant (IR-R) — Bryant (ankle) was a full participant at the Patriots' practice Tuesday.; Khalil Jacobs (IR) — The Patriots placed Jacobs (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday.; Karon Prunty (Out) — Prunty (hamstring) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against Chicago.; Carlton Davis III (Out) — Davis (neck) has been ruled out ahead of Thursday night's game against the Bears.; Mike Onwenu (IR) — The Patriots placed Onwenu (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Dell Pettus (IR) — The Patriots placed Pettus (ankle) on injured reserve Wednesday.; Reggie Gilliam (IR) — The Patriots placed Gilliam (ankle/knee) on injured reserve Saturday, Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports.; Quintayvious Hutchins (IR) — Hutchins (knee) was placed on injured reserve Friday.; Greg Van Roten (IR) — The Patriots placed Van Roten (thigh) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Channing Canada (Out) — Canada (hamstring) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Bears.; Mack Hollins (IR) — The Patriots placed Hollins (calf) on injured reserve Saturday, Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports.; Romeo Doubs (IR) — Doubs (shoulder) is hopeful to return after the Patriots' Week 11 bye and isn't expected to face a long-term absence, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com reports.; Morgan Moses (Questionable) — Moses (foot) is questionable to play Thursday versus the Bears.; Alijah Vera-Tucker (Out) — Vera-Tucker (hamstring) has been ruled out for Thursday night's game against the Bears.; Ben Brown (Out) — Brown (knee) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Bears.; Kevin Byard (Questionable) — Byard (chest) is listed as questionable for Thursday night's game against the Bears.; Christian Elliss (Questionable) — Elliss (chest) is listed as questionable for Thursday night's game against the Bears.; Craig Woodson (Questionable) — Woodson (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Thursday night's game against the Bears.

Chicago Bears: Coby Bryant (IR) — The Bears placed Bryant (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Dallis Flowers (IR) — ir; Brittain Brown (IR) — Brown (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Bears on Sunday.; Tony Fields II (IR-R) — The Bears placed Fields (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return.; Ruben Hyppolite II (IR) — Hyppolite (shoulder) reverted to Chicago's injured reserve Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Nikola Kalinic (IR) — ir; Hayden Large (IR) — The Bears placed Large (undisclosed) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Nephi Sewell (IR) — The Bears placed Sewell (concussion) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Kyle Monangai (Out) — Monangai (toe/thumb) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Patriots.; Braxton Jones (IR) — The Bears placed Jones (knee) on injured reserve Saturday.; Anthony Johnson Jr. (IR); T.J. Edwards (Doubtful) — Edwards (hamstring) is doubtful to play Thursday night versus the Patriots.; Dayo Odeyingbo (IR) — The Bears placed Odeyingbo (quadriceps) on injured reserve Saturday.; Montez Sweat (Reserve-Sus) — The NFL announced Tuesday that Sweat has been suspended two games without pay for violating the league's performance-enhancing substances policy, Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune reports.; Jack Sanborn (Out) — Sanborn (concussion) is officially listed as out for Thursday's game versus the Patriots.; Tyrique Stevenson Sr. (Questionable) — Stevenson (hip) is questionable to play Thursday night versus the Patriots.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Caleb Williams is the projected starting quarterback for CHI

    7.82 Y/A

    Through 3 games in 2026, Caleb Williams threw for 712 passing yards, completed 72.5% of his passes and averaged 7.82 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3942 yards, completed 58.1% and averaged 6.94 yards per attempt, 27-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 3-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

  • Drake Maye is the projected starting quarterback for NE

    8 Y/A

    Through 6 games in 2026, Drake Maye threw for 1463 passing yards, completed 63.9% of his passes and averaged 8 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4394 yards, completed 72% and averaged 8.93 yards per attempt, 31-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 11-7 touchdown-to-interception line is 6 games in.

TRENCHES

  • CHI: 160.7 rushing yards per game to NE's 130.7

    30 YPG

    Chicago runs for 160.7 yards a game, up from 144.5 last season, while New England sits at 130.7, close to its 128.9. Both teams can run, but the Bears lean on it harder. Chicago's bump may settle a little. With both offenses comfortable on the ground, this game could feature plenty of clock-draining drives.

PASS RUSH

  • NE: 8 sack yards lost per game to CHI's 18.3

    10.3 YDS

    Chicago is losing 18.3 yards a game to sacks, up from 12.7 last season, while New England has cut its number to 8 from 12.6. The Bears' jump over six games points to protection trouble or holding the ball too long, and it may ease some. At home against a Patriots offense that is staying clean, Chicago drives are more likely to stall behind the sticks.

  • NE: 1.83 sacks taken per game to CHI's 2.5

    0.67 SACKS

    NE is at 1.83 sacks taken per game over 6 games; CHI is at 2.5 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 21. Last season NE was at 3 over 17 games and CHI at 1.85 over 17 games.

  • CHI: 2.83 sacks recorded per game to NE's 2.33

    0.5 SACKS

    NE is at 2.33 sacks recorded per game over 6 games; CHI is at 2.83 over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 21.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • CHI: 36:01 time of possession per game to NE's 31:17

    4:44 TOP

    Chicago is holding the ball much longer than its 30:59 last season, while New England is right at last season's 31:18. Six games is a decent sample, but this can shift with game flow. Chicago's long drives reduce possessions for both offenses, which tends to keep scoring lower and favors the side that controls the clock.

  • NE @ CHI carries a 50.5 market total

    50.5

    New England at Chicago is set 6 points above the 44.5 median, so the market expects both offenses to move the ball and finish. A 50.5 needs steady touchdowns from both sides rather than one team carrying the load. If either offense bogs down in the red zone and kicks field goals, this number gets hard to reach. Bettors can weigh how much of the total depends on both teams scoring versus one running away with it.

  • CHI: 73.2 offensive plays per game to NE's 64.5

    8.7 PLAYS

    NE is at 64.5 offensive plays per game over 6 games; CHI is at 73.2 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 21. Last season NE was at 61.4 over 17 games and CHI at 64.9 over 17 games.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • NE: 5.8 yards per play to CHI's 5.27

    0.53 Y/P

    New England gains 5.8 yards per play to Chicago's 5.27. Both are down from last season, when the Patriots were at 6.23 and the Bears at 5.71. Drake Maye hit Romeo Doubs for a 42-yard touchdown and ran for 21 last game. The Patriots carry the efficiency edge, and the Bears' offense has slipped more than the six-game sample shows.

RED ZONE

  • CHI: 4.33 red-zone trips per game to NE's 3

    1.33 TRIPS

    NE is at 3 red-zone trips per game over 6 games; CHI is at 4.33 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 21. Last season NE was at 3.71 over 17 games and CHI at 3.24 over 17 games.

  • NE: 50% red-zone scoring allowed to CHI's 66.7%

    16.7 PP

    New England allows red-zone scores 50% of the time over six games; Chicago allows 66.7%. Red-zone numbers rest on few trips and swing quickly. The Bears' strong third-down defense keeps opponents out of the red zone in the first place, so this gap matters less than it looks. In this game, both defenses have strengths at different points of a drive.

MISMATCH

  • CHI: 36:01 of possession a game to NE's 31:17

    36:01 VS 31:17

    Chicago holds the ball 36:01 a game over six games, compared with New England's 31:17. The Bears were at 30:59 last season, so this is a new style, while the Patriots are right at their 31:18 from last season. Both teams control the clock, so this game could have fewer possessions than usual. That tends to shrink scoring chances on both sides.

COVERAGE

  • CHI: 25.8% third downs allowed to NE's 37.1%

    11.3 PP

    Chicago allows conversions on just 25.8% of third downs over six games, well below New England's 37.1%. Opponents are getting off the field fast against the Bears. A mark that low tends to creep up as the season goes, so expect some regression. For this game, the Patriots' offense faces the harder third-down test, which can cap long drives.

  • NE: 5.28 yards per play allowed to CHI's 5.85

    0.57 Y/P

    New England allows 5.28 yards per play over 6 games, Chicago 5.85 over 6. Chicago is the defense giving up more per snap, which usually means more explosive gains against it. Six games is a fair sample, though the opponents faced aren't on the sheet. For this game, New England's offense draws the softer per-play matchup of the two.

REPLACEMENT

  • Case Keenum (QB) is out for CHI

    OUT

    Keenum is a healthy scratch by coach's decision and will be Chicago's emergency third quarterback Thursday against New England. He only dresses into action if the top two quarterbacks both get knocked out, so this has no bearing on how the Bears play. It is roster housekeeping and does not move the matchup.

  • Channing Canada (CB) is out for NE

    OUT

    Canada is ruled out for Thursday against the Bears with a hamstring injury, per the Oct 22 report. With Karon Prunty also out with a hamstring, New England goes into Chicago two cornerbacks short. Bettors looking at Bears receivers or passing numbers should factor in a Patriots secondary leaning on its reserves.

  • Carlton Davis III (CB) is out for NE

    OUT

    Davis has a neck injury and is officially ruled out for Thursday night in Chicago, so there is no game-time decision to wait on. The Patriots play this one without a starting-caliber corner, and the report does not name who takes his snaps. For betting, look at how the Bears passing game is priced and assume New England's secondary is thinner than usual.

  • Karon Prunty (CB) is out for NE

    OUT

    Prunty will not play Thursday at Chicago because of a hamstring injury, ruled out on Oct 22. The Patriots are also without Channing Canada, another corner with a hamstring, so New England is down two cornerbacks for this game. That thins the secondary against the Bears' passing game, and depth corners will have to cover more snaps.

  • Jayden Loving (DT) is out for CHI

    OUT

    CHI lists Jayden Loving as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 22.

  • Behren Morton (QB) is out for NE

    OUT

    Morton is inactive by coach's decision, which means he isn't hurt. New England lists him as the emergency third quarterback for Thursday at Chicago, so he only plays if both quarterbacks ahead of him go down. Nothing about the Patriots' game plan changes, and bettors can leave this one out of any read on the game.

  • Kyle Monangai (RB) is out for CHI

    OUT

    CHI lists Kyle Monangai as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 22.

  • T.J. Edwards (LB) is out for CHI

    OUT

    Edwards (hamstring) is inactive for Thursday night's matchup against New England. Reported Oct 22.

  • Jack Sanborn (LB) is out for CHI

    OUT

    Sanborn (concussion) is officially listed as out for Thursday's game versus the Patriots. Reported Oct 22.

  • Nick McCloud (CB) is out for CHI

    OUT

    CHI lists Nick McCloud as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 22.

  • Joshua Farmer (DT) is out for NE

    OUT

    NE lists Joshua Farmer as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 22.

  • Anthony Johnson Jr. (S) is out for CHI

    OUT

    CHI lists Anthony Johnson Jr. as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 23.

  • Jordan McFadden (G) is out for CHI

    OUT

    CHI lists Jordan McFadden as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 22.

  • Ben Brown (C) is out for NE

    OUT

    Brown, the Patriots' center, is out Thursday at Chicago with a knee injury, ruled out on Oct 22. A backup center will snap the ball and handle the line calls in front of the quarterback. On a short week, that change in the middle of the line is something to weigh when you think about New England's ability to protect and run inside.

  • Marcus Bryant (OT) is ir-r for NE

    IR-R

    Bryant (ankle) was a full participant at the Patriots' practice Tuesday. Reported Oct 21.

  • Romeo Doubs (WR) is on injured reserve for NE

    IR

    Doubs (shoulder) is hopeful to return after the Patriots' Week 11 bye and isn't expected to face a long-term absence, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com reports. Reported Oct 19.

  • Dayo Odeyingbo (DE) is on injured reserve for CHI

    IR

    The Bears placed Odeyingbo (quadriceps) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Oct 17.

  • Mack Hollins (WR) is on injured reserve for NE

    IR

    The Patriots placed Hollins (calf) on injured reserve Saturday, Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports. Reported Oct 10.

  • Montez Sweat (DE) is reserve-sus for CHI

    RESERVE-SUS

    The NFL announced Tuesday that Sweat has been suspended two games without pay for violating the league's performance-enhancing substances policy, Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune reports. Reported Oct 13.

  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (G) is on injured reserve for NE

    IR

    Vera-Tucker (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve by the Patriots on Thursday. Reported Oct 22.

  • Reggie Gilliam (FB) is on injured reserve for NE

    IR

    The Patriots placed Gilliam (ankle/knee) on injured reserve Saturday, Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports. Reported Oct 11.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Jack Sanborn

    Out

    Concussion · Did not practice · Out

  • Carlton Davis III

    Out

    Neck · Limited practice · Out

  • Kyle Monangai

    Out

    Thumb, Toe · Did not practice · Out

  • Alijah Vera-Tucker

    Out

    Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

  • Ben Brown

    Out

    Knee · Did not practice · Out

  • Karon Prunty

    Out

    Hamstring · Limited practice · Out

  • Channing Canada

    Out

    Hamstring · Limited practice · Out

  • T.J. Edwards

    Doubtful

    Hamstring · Limited practice · Doubtful

  • Craig Woodson

    Questionable

    Shoulder · Full practice · Questionable

  • Christian Elliss

    Questionable

    Chest · Full practice · Questionable

  • Kevin Byard

    Questionable

    Chest · Full practice · Questionable

  • Morgan Moses

    Questionable

    Foot · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Tyrique Stevenson Sr.

    Questionable

    Hip · Full practice · Questionable

  • Andy Borregales

    FP

    Full practice

  • Joshua Farmer

    FP

    Coach's Decision · Full practice

  • TreVeyon Henderson

    FP

    Full practice

  • A.J. Brown

    FP

    Full practice

  • Will Campbell

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jonah Jackson

    FP

    Full practice

  • Marcus Bryant

    FP

    Ankle · Full practice

  • Dre'Mont Jones

    FP

    Full practice

  • Drake Maye

    FP

    Full practice

  • Keyshaun Elliott

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • NE: 80% fourth-down conversion rate to CHI's 53.3%

    26.7 PP

    NE is at 80% fourth-down conversion rate over 6 games; CHI is at 53.3% over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 21. Last season NE was at 72% over 17 games and CHI at 51.7% over 17 games.

  • NE: 7.33 yards per pass attempt to CHI's 6.32

    1.02 Y/A

    NE is at 7.33 yards per pass attempt over 6 games; CHI is at 6.32 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 21. Last season NE was at 7.99 over 17 games and CHI at 6.46 over 17 games.

  • NE (4-2) at CHI (4-2)

    +8 PT GAP

    Both teams are 4-2 with similar margins, Chicago at +31 and New England at +23. The Patriots have won three straight but are 1-2 on the road, and the Bears are 2-1 at home. The home and road splits are the only real separation here, and they come from three games each. Expect a tight number, and judge it on the margins more than the streaks.

  • NE is on a short week

    4d vs 4d

    New England and Chicago both come in on 4 days, so neither side gets a rest edge. Short weeks tend to produce simpler game plans and sloppier play on both sides. With the calendar even, the only difference is that the Patriots travel. Lean on the matchup itself rather than the schedule.

STREAK

  • NE has won 3 straight

    W3

    NE carries a 3-game winning streak into this one, sitting at 4-2 on the season. They face CHI in NE @ CHI. Current-2026 standings through 2026-10-21.

TEAM RECORD

  • CHI is 2-1 at home; NE is 1-2 on the road

    2-1

    CHI has won two of three at home, and NE has lost two of three on the road. Three games on each side is a small sample, and one result flips either split. NE also comes in on a three-game winning streak, which cuts against the road number. Lean on how both teams are playing now more than on the site split.

AFTER GARY

  • NE +3 → +3

    NO MOVE

    Gary's number was 3; the same book now shows 3.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 22, 2026 at 4:21 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    HUNTER HENRYRECEIVING YARDS OVER 33.5
    NFLNew England Patriots· -113

    Hunter Henry
    Receiving Yards over 33.5

    -113 · CASHED · ACTUAL 71

    New England Patriots

    New England comes into Soldier Field without Romeo Doubs, Mack Hollins or Julian Hill. That takes away the second receiver, the third receiver and the backup tight end in the same week. Somebody has to run the intermediate routes Josh McDaniels builds off play-action. Hunter Henry is the veteran Drake Maye trusts there. He has caught a touchdown in each of the last two games and has been the steadiest piece of this passing game all year.

    The matchup sets up well for him. Chicago's linebacker room is thin. T.J. Edwards is doubtful and Jack Sanborn is out, and those are the players who have to bite on the run fake and then find the tight end sitting behind them. Green Bay beat this defense with play-action floods earlier this month, and the Bears give up more yards per play than anyone in the league. With a patchwork line, New England wants the ball out on early downs to spots where Maye can see it fast. A tight end in the seam is that throw.

    At 33.5, I need three or four catches with one of them going somewhere. Over his last three healthy outings he has gone for 62, 44 and 48.

    What beats it: McDaniels keeping Henry in to chip and block for a line starting backups at guard and possibly at right tackle, while A.J. Brown and DeMario Douglas soak up the volume. If the Patriots fall behind early and Maye spends the night throwing outside the numbers, Henry can get lost. I'll take the over.

  • GARY'S PICK
    D'ANDRE SWIFTRUSHING YARDS UNDER 61.5
    NFLChicago Bears· -115

    D'Andre Swift
    Rushing Yards under 61.5

    -115 · LOST · ACTUAL 78

    Chicago Bears

    D'Andre Swift is still the lead back, but Chicago's backfield has turned into a split since Kyle Monangai went down, and Monangai is out again tonight. Roschon Johnson took 13 carries last week in Atlanta and has also been working into the passing downs. The market sees it. His rushing number climbed from 19.5 to 26.5 this week, and every carry Roschon takes comes off Swift's total.

    Since the 124 yards in Carolina on opening weekend, Swift has topped out at 84, and that game took 20 carries. His last two came in at 44 and 43. He is averaging a little over four yards a carry this season. Caleb Williams is also back now, and Ben Johnson put the ball in his hands 36 times last week. On a short week with little time to install anything new, I expect this offense to run through Williams and the quick passing game against a New England secondary missing three corners.

    New England's interior is healthy, with Christian Barmore and Milton Williams both available, and running backs have managed about four yards a carry against this defense. Swift's goal line work keeps him live for a touchdown, but short carries near the end zone do little for a yardage total.

    What beats it: a Chicago lead that turns the fourth quarter into a clock drill, or one breakaway run like he found in Carolina. If Roschon gets banged up and Swift handles 20 carries, 62 comes into reach. I'm on the under.

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