Buffalo Bills picks

Lamar Jackson walks back into the huddle at Highmark Stadium after three weeks on the sideline, and the Bills are laying a field goal on a clear, 70-degree afternoon. That number was built on the Huntley Ravens, and that isn't the team taking the field today. In Huntley's three starts, Baltimore averaged 5.1 yards per play and scored 30, 10 and 13. In Jackson's three full starts, it ran 6.9 yards per play, scored 41, 17 and 34, and turned 8 of 12 red-zone trips into touchdowns. Even a taped-up Jackson runs a different offense. Buffalo's defense is the soft side of this game, and it's thinner today. The Bills have allowed 29 or more points in five of six games, 5.6 yards per play, and touchdowns on 18 of 26 red-zone trips. The pass rush has gone quiet, with no sacks at Las Vegas and one against the Rams. Free safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, a 95-100% snap player before the Week 6 ejection, is suspended, so Damar Hamlin starts. Nickel back Dee Alford missed Thursday and Saturday practice and is reported as likely out. That puts practice-squad call-ups in coverage against Zay Flowers, who had 137 yards last week with Huntley throwing. Buffalo also doesn't win by margin. Its results read +5, +10, +8, -3, +3 in overtime and +3. Three of six were decided by exactly a field goal, so getting the full 3 matters. Nine giveaways in six games doesn't hurt the underdog either. The risk is real. Jackson was never seen running at full speed this week and still feels it when planting the left foot, which affects throwing, not just scrambling. Ed Oliver is back for Buffalo's rush. Without Jaylinn Hawkins last week, Baltimore let Joe Burrow throw four touchdowns, gave up touchdowns on all five red-zone trips and missed 10 tackles. Hawkins is out again, now against Josh Allen and James Cook. The Bills are coming off a bye, and the Ravens play again Thursday. That's why this is a measured play, not a hammer. Still, the market is charging three points for a defense that gives up points every week and is patching its secondary, against an offense getting its quarterback back. I'll take the field goal.