New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Injuries noted

New England Patriots: Harold Landry III (PUP-R) — Landry (undisclosed) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Patriots on Sunday.; Brenden Schooler (NFI-R) — The Patriots opened the 21-day practice window for Schooler (back) on Wednesday.; Jeremiah Webb (IR) — Arm; Julian Hill (IR) — Knee; Myles Montgomery (IR) — ir; Bryce Baringer (IR) — The Patriots placed Baringer (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday.; Marcus Bryant (IR-R) — The Patriots placed Bryant (ankle) on injured reserve with a designation to return Sunday.; Khalil Jacobs (IR) — The Patriots placed Jacobs (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday.; A.J. Brown (IR) — Brown was spotted Monday in the Patriots' locker room walking without a limp and wearing a small wrap on his injured right ankle, Taylor Kyles of CLNSMedia.com reports.; Dre'Mont Jones (Questionable) — Jones (shoulder) is listed as questionable against the Bills on Sunday, Phil Perry of NBC Sports Boston reports.; Mike Onwenu (IR) — The Patriots placed Onwenu (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Dell Pettus (IR) — The Patriots placed Pettus (ankle) on injured reserve Wednesday.; Eli Raridon (Questionable) — Raridon (thigh) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Bills, Phil Perry of NBC Sports Boston reports.; Craig Woodson (Questionable) — Woodson (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Buffalo, Phil Perry of NBC Sports Boston reports.; Reggie Gilliam (Questionable) — Gilliam (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Buffalo, Phil Perry of NBC Sports Boston reports.; Quintayvious Hutchins (IR) — Hutchins (knee) was placed on injured reserve Friday.; Morgan Moses (Questionable) — questionable; Christian Barmore (Out) — Barmore (shoulder) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Bills, Mike Reiss of ESPN.com reports.; Greg Van Roten (IR) — The Patriots placed Van Roten (thigh) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Christian Elliss (Questionable) — Elliss (chest) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Bills.; Christian Gonzalez (Out) — Gonzalez (shoulder) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Bills, Mike Reiss of ESPN.com reports.; Channing Canada (Out) — Canada (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's matchup against Buffalo.

Buffalo Bills: Tyrell Shavers (PUP-R) — out; Dorian Strong (NFI-R) — nfi-r; Phidarian Mathis (Reserve-Sus) — reserve-sus; Zane Durant (IR-R) — ir; T.J. Sanders (Doubtful) — Sanders (appendix) was a limited practice participant Thursday.; Ar'maj Reed-Adams (Questionable) — questionable; DJ Moore (Questionable) — Moore (shoulder) is practicing in a non-contact jersey Friday, Sal Capaccio of WGR Sports Radio 550 Buffalo reports.; Keon Coleman (Questionable) — Coleman (ankle) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice.; Jordan Hancock (IR) — The Bills placed Hancock (hamstring) on injured reserve Friday.; Christian Benford (Questionable) — Benford (toe) did not participate in practice Wednesday or Thursday.; Josh Allen (Questionable) — Allen (knee) was spotted participating in practice Wednesday, Sal Capaccio of WGR Sports Radio 550 Buffalo reports.; Joe Andreessen (Questionable) — questionable; Damar Hamlin (Questionable) — questionable; Deone Walker (Questionable) — questionable; Sam Franklin Jr. (Questionable) — questionable; Ray Davis (Questionable) — Davis (hamstring) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Patriots.

QUARTERBACK

• Drake Maye is the projected starting quarterback for NE

  7.31 Y/A

  Through 3 games in 2026, Drake Maye threw for 585 passing yards, completed 63.8% of his passes and averaged 7.31 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4394 yards, completed 72% and averaged 8.93 yards per attempt, 31-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-6 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

• Josh Allen is the projected starting quarterback for BUF

  9.14 Y/A

  Through 3 games in 2026, Josh Allen threw for 786 passing yards, completed 65.1% of his passes and averaged 9.14 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3668 yards, completed 69.3% and averaged 7.97 yards per attempt, 25-10 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

TRENCHES

• BUF: 155 rushing yards per game to NE's 109.3

  45.7 YPG

  NE is at 109.3 rushing yards per game over 3 games; BUF is at 155 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season NE was at 128.9 over 17 games and BUF at 159.6 over 17 games.

• BUF: 5 yards per rush attempt to NE's 3.87

  1.13 Y/C

  NE is at 3.87 yards per rush attempt over 3 games; BUF is at 5 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season NE was at 4.4 over 17 games and BUF at 4.97 over 17 games.

PASS RUSH

• BUF: 3 sacks recorded per game to NE's 2.33

  0.67 SACKS

  Buffalo's defense averages 3 sacks a game over 3 games, and New England gets 2.33. Both fronts are getting home, with Buffalo a bit more often. Sack rates depend heavily on the offensive lines faced, and three games is not much. At home in this matchup, Buffalo's pass rush is the more likely to speed up the opposing quarterback.

PACE & SCRIPT

• BUF: 33.7 points per game to NE's 12

  21.7 PPG

  Buffalo is scoring at a 33.7 clip while New England has managed 12 a game through three weeks. Last season these offenses were nearly identical, 28.8 for the Patriots and 28.3 for the Bills, so the Patriots' drop is the stranger number and the likelier one to bounce back. Buffalo can dictate the pace here, but a three-game sample overstates the gap, and a Patriots total built on 12 a game may be set too low.

• NE: 17 points allowed per game to BUF's 26

  9 PPG

  NE is at 17 points allowed per game over 3 games; BUF is at 26 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season NE was at 18.8 over 17 games and BUF at 21.5 over 17 games.

TURNOVERS

• BUF: 0.67 interceptions thrown per game to NE's 2

  1.33 INT

  NE is at 2 interceptions thrown per game over 3 games; BUF is at 0.67 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season NE was at 0.47 over 17 games and BUF at 0.59 over 17 games.

• BUF: 1.67 turnovers committed per game to NE's 2.67

  1 TO

  NE is at 2.67 turnovers committed per game over 3 games; BUF is at 1.67 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season NE was at 0.94 over 17 games and BUF at 1.12 over 17 games.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

• BUF: 6.67 yards per play to NE's 5.2

  1.47 Y/P

  Buffalo is at 6.67 yards a play over three games, up from 5.94, while New England has dropped from 6.23 to 5.2. The Patriots still hit five plays of 20 or more last game, mostly Drake Maye throws, including 38 yards to DeMario Douglas, so the big-play ability is there. Given last season's numbers, New England's dip looks more likely to bounce back than Buffalo's edge is to grow.

RED ZONE

• BUF: 75% red-zone scoring rate to NE's 16.7%

  58.3 PP

  NE is at 16.7% red-zone scoring rate over 3 games; BUF is at 75% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season NE was at 57.1% over 17 games and BUF at 66.2% over 17 games.

• BUF: 4 red-zone trips per game to NE's 2

  2 TRIPS

  NE is at 2 red-zone trips per game over 3 games; BUF is at 4 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season NE was at 3.71 over 17 games and BUF at 3.82 over 17 games.

MISMATCH

• BUF: 54.5% on third down to NE's 32.5%

  54.5 VS 32.5

  Buffalo has converted 54.5% of its third downs through three games, and New England just 32.5%. Last season the gap was small, 44.8% for Buffalo and 42.9% for New England, so both teams are running hotter and colder than their usual level. Expect both to drift back toward those marks. For this game, the Patriots need early-down yards to avoid long third downs, or Buffalo will hold the ball and the clock.

COVERAGE

• NE: 170 passing yards allowed per game to BUF's 254.3

  84.3 YPG

  New England has held opponents to 170 passing yards a game, while Buffalo's defense has given up 254.3 through the air. That is three games each, so who they faced shapes a lot of it. The sheet doesn't say which quarterbacks either side saw, so the gap is real on paper but thin in sample. For this game, the Patriots offense looks set up to throw on Buffalo more easily than the reverse, which matters for passing props and how you view the total.

• NE: 4.87 yards per play allowed to BUF's 5.43

  0.57 Y/P

  New England allows 4.87 yards per play over 3 games, and Buffalo gives up 5.43. Per play, the Patriots defense has been the tighter unit so far. Three games is a short look, and the sheet does not show who either team faced. In a division game at Buffalo, the Patriots defense has a modest edge in limiting chunk plays, which matters most when you are looking at the total.

• NE: 34.3% third downs allowed to BUF's 40.5%

  6.2 PP

  NE is at 34.3% third downs allowed over 3 games; BUF is at 40.5% over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 3.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

• NE and BUF are even since 2025

  1-1 SERIES

  These two have split right down the middle, and both games were coin flips. New England won 23-20 in Buffalo on Oct 5, then Buffalo answered with a 35-31 shootout win in Foxborough on Dec 14. The road team won both times, so home field has not meant much in this matchup. With two games and two one-score finishes, a tight game is the default expectation here more than a clear edge for either side.

REPLACEMENT

• DJ Moore (WR) is questionable for BUF

  QUESTIONABLE

  Moore has a shoulder injury that isn't considered long-term, according to the Oct 5 report. Questionable means a real chance either way, and the final call often comes close to kickoff against New England. The short-term label points to a quick return, though this game is still in doubt. Before betting Bills receiving props or Moore's own lines, wait for the inactive list rather than pricing in a full workload.

• Charles Woods (CB) is questionable for NE

  QUESTIONABLE

  Woods left Sunday's 29-26 win over the Bills with a shoulder injury after two tackles, one solo. Questionable means his return was uncertain. If he misses time, New England has to lean on its depth at corner, which matters most against teams that throw a lot.

• A.J. Brown (WR) is on injured reserve for NE

  IR

  Brown is on injured reserve with a right ankle injury, so he is out against Buffalo. He was seen Monday in the locker room walking without a limp and wearing only a small wrap, a hopeful sign for his return once eligible. For this game, New England's passing game runs through its other receivers, so price Patriots wideouts with Brown off the field.

• Brenden Schooler (S) is nfi-r for NE

  NFI-R

  The Patriots opened Schooler's 21-day practice window on Sep 24 as he works back from a back injury. He stays off the active roster until New England activates him, so do not count on him against Buffalo unless that move is made. His main impact is depth on defense and special teams.

• Greg Van Roten (G) is on injured reserve for NE

  IR

  New England moved Van Roten to injured reserve Tuesday with a thigh injury, so the guard is out for the trip to Buffalo. Losing a starting-caliber guard can shake up pass protection, and the fact sheet does not say who steps in. Check the Patriots' line combination before backing their offense in this spot.

• Jordan Hancock (CB) is on injured reserve for BUF

  IR

  Buffalo put Hancock on injured reserve Friday, Sep 26, with a hamstring injury, so the cornerback is out against New England. The fact sheet does not name who picks up the snaps. Losing depth at corner matters most if the Bills suffer another injury in the secondary during the game.

• Quintayvious Hutchins (LB) is on injured reserve for NE

  IR

  Hutchins (knee) was placed on injured reserve Friday. Reported Sep 26.

• Dell Pettus (S) is on injured reserve for NE

  IR

  The Patriots placed Pettus (ankle) on injured reserve Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.

• Mike Onwenu (G) is on injured reserve for NE

  IR

  The Patriots placed Onwenu (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Sep 23.

PRACTICE REPORT

• Christian Barmore

  Out

  Shoulder · Did not practice · Out

• Christian Gonzalez

  Out

  Shoulder · Did not practice · Out

• T.J. Sanders

  Doubtful

  Illness · Limited practice · Doubtful

• Eli Raridon

  Questionable

  Thigh · Limited practice · Questionable

• Channing Canada

  Questionable

  Hamstring · Limited practice · Questionable

• Christian Elliss

  Questionable

  Chest · Limited practice · Questionable

• Reggie Gilliam

  Questionable

  Knee · Limited practice · Questionable

• Ray Davis

  Questionable

  Hamstring · Limited practice · Questionable

• Craig Woodson

  Questionable

  Shoulder · Limited practice · Questionable

• Morgan Moses

  Questionable

  Foot · Limited practice · Questionable

• Dre'Mont Jones

  Questionable

  Shoulder · Limited practice · Questionable

• Christian Benford

  Questionable

  Toe · Did not practice · Questionable

• Terrel Bernard

  DNP

  Did not practice

• Sam Franklin Jr.

  DNP

  Did not practice

• DJ Moore

  LP

  Limited practice

• Keon Coleman

  LP

  Limited practice

• Damar Hamlin

  LP

  Limited practice

• Drake Maye

  FP

  Full practice

• Dorian Williams

  FP

  Full practice

• Ar'maj Reed-Adams

  FP

  Coach's Decision · Full practice

• Joe Andreessen

  FP

  Full practice

• Deone Walker

  FP

  Full practice

• Bradley Chubb

  FP

  Full practice

SITUATIONAL

• NE (1-2) at BUF (3-0), a division game

  +38 PT GAP

  Buffalo has won all three, outscored teams by 23 and is 2-0 at home, while New England is -15 and has lost both road games. Three games is a small sample, but every split points the same way: Buffalo at home, New England away. Division games tend to be tighter than the records suggest because these teams know each other well, so ask whether a line built on that gap is pricing in some familiarity.

• NE: 49.7 penalty yards per game to BUF's 73

  23.3 YDS

  NE is at 49.7 penalty yards per game over 3 games; BUF is at 73 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season NE was at 50.2 over 17 games and BUF at 49.9 over 17 games.

STREAK

• BUF has won 3 straight

  W3

  Buffalo is 3-0 and has not lost yet. Three games is a small sample, and without the opponents on the sheet there is no way to judge how hard those wins were. Unbeaten teams early in the season tend to draw heavy public money, which can push a line further than the team's real edge. Against New England at home, ask whether the number already prices in the hot start.

AFTER GARY

• BUF -6.5 → -6.5

  NO MOVE

  Gary's number was -6.5; the market closed at -6.5.