Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders

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The research

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All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  JOSH ALLENPASSING COMPLETIONS UNDER 20.5

  NFLBuffalo Bills· -105

  LOST · ACTUAL 23

  GARY'S TAKE

  Josh Allen under 20.5 completions at -105. This number asks for a volume passing day from a quarterback whose offense has stopped needing one. Look at his five games this year: 20, 20, 16, 23 and 12 completions, an average of 18.2 on about 27.6 attempts a game. Brady's offense leans on the run. Buffalo ran 37 times against the Rams with only 21 dropbacks, and James Cook (95 carries, 5.6 a carry) plus Allen's legs have carried the team while the passing game sorts itself out. Allen said himself he's working through mechanical issues, and only one of his 12 completions in Los Angeles traveled more than 10 yards in the air. The matchup pushes the same way. Las Vegas gives up 140.6 rushing yards a game and got run over by Kansas City and New England. If I'm Brady, I hand Cook the ball 20-plus times, let Allen scramble, and keep my defense off a field where it has already logged the second-most snaps in the league. Both DJ Moore and Joshua Palmer are questionable with shoulder injuries, so even if they suit up, the receiver room Allen trusts may be limited. Last week the wideouts combined for four catches. The case against this is real. The Raiders' pass defense allows 7.9 yards an attempt and gives tight ends plenty of room, and Allen said this week he wants to take the underneath throws early to get Dalton Kincaid going. Short completions add up fast. If Las Vegas keeps the game close, which I expect, Buffalo can't simply run out the clock in the second half, and a shootout could push his attempts into the 30s. A healthy Moore would also change the target picture. Still, this offense wins with the run, and five games of evidence say Allen lives below this line. I'll take the under at near even money.

  ×

  Josh Allen
  Passing Completions under 20.5

  -105 · LOST · ACTUAL 23

  Buffalo Bills

  Read Gary’s Take

  Josh Allen under 20.5 completions at -105. This number asks for a volume passing day from a quarterback whose offense has stopped needing one.

  Look at his five games this year: 20, 20, 16, 23 and 12 completions, an average of 18.2 on about 27.6 attempts a game. Brady's offense leans on the run. Buffalo ran 37 times against the Rams with only 21 dropbacks, and James Cook (95 carries, 5.6 a carry) plus Allen's legs have carried the team while the passing game sorts itself out. Allen said himself he's working through mechanical issues, and only one of his 12 completions in Los Angeles traveled more than 10 yards in the air.

  The matchup pushes the same way. Las Vegas gives up 140.6 rushing yards a game and got run over by Kansas City and New England. If I'm Brady, I hand Cook the ball 20-plus times, let Allen scramble, and keep my defense off a field where it has already logged the second-most snaps in the league. Both DJ Moore and Joshua Palmer are questionable with shoulder injuries, so even if they suit up, the receiver room Allen trusts may be limited. Last week the wideouts combined for four catches.

  The case against this is real. The Raiders' pass defense allows 7.9 yards an attempt and gives tight ends plenty of room, and Allen said this week he wants to take the underneath throws early to get Dalton Kincaid going. Short completions add up fast. If Las Vegas keeps the game close, which I expect, Buffalo can't simply run out the clock in the second half, and a shootout could push his attempts into the 30s. A healthy Moore would also change the target picture.

  Still, this offense wins with the run, and five games of evidence say Allen lives below this line. I'll take the under at near even money.

• GARY'S PICK

  ASHTON JEANTYRUSHING YARDS UNDER 55.5

  NFLLas Vegas Raiders· -113

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 22

  GARY'S TAKE

  Ashton Jeanty under 55.5 rushing yards at -113. The line asks for more than his efficiency has produced against weaker fronts. Jeanty is the clear RB1, with 88 carries over five games, but those carries have gone for 291 yards, 3.3 a carry. Since the Miami opener, his games read 48, 56, 58 and 27. The Raiders rank dead last in yards per carry as a team. The problem is up front: Jeanty averages about 0.3 yards before contact, and left guard Spencer Burford has struggled in the run game. Buffalo's front is the best in the league at closing that space, allowing about 0.4 yards before contact. Running backs have managed 432 yards on 118 carries against the Bills this year, and the Lions and Rams backfields were held to 66 and 77 team rushing yards. The math works against him even with a full workload. At his season rate, Jeanty needs roughly 17 carries to clear this number, and his carry count has dropped from 23 to 21 to 19 to 15 to 10. Mike Washington Jr. has been the more efficient runner on 25 carries, and Dylan Laube's role grew in New England. Both chip away at Jeanty's share. The risk on this side: Kubiak spent the week talking about not being one-dimensional, and Jeanty says he feels a lot better after the ankle and foot trouble. His two home games produced 102 and 58 yards. Buffalo's defense has played a heavy snap load, comes in on a short week after overtime, and Ed Oliver and T.J. Sanders are both questionable on the interior. If the Raiders stay close and keep feeding him, one long run could flip this. Betting on the scheme to finally click against the best run front for limiting yards before contact is a reach. I'll take the under.

  ×

  Ashton Jeanty
  Rushing Yards under 55.5

  -113 · CASHED · ACTUAL 22

  Las Vegas Raiders

  Read Gary’s Take

  Ashton Jeanty under 55.5 rushing yards at -113. The line asks for more than his efficiency has produced against weaker fronts.

  Jeanty is the clear RB1, with 88 carries over five games, but those carries have gone for 291 yards, 3.3 a carry. Since the Miami opener, his games read 48, 56, 58 and 27. The Raiders rank dead last in yards per carry as a team. The problem is up front: Jeanty averages about 0.3 yards before contact, and left guard Spencer Burford has struggled in the run game. Buffalo's front is the best in the league at closing that space, allowing about 0.4 yards before contact. Running backs have managed 432 yards on 118 carries against the Bills this year, and the Lions and Rams backfields were held to 66 and 77 team rushing yards.

  The math works against him even with a full workload. At his season rate, Jeanty needs roughly 17 carries to clear this number, and his carry count has dropped from 23 to 21 to 19 to 15 to 10. Mike Washington Jr. has been the more efficient runner on 25 carries, and Dylan Laube's role grew in New England. Both chip away at Jeanty's share.

  The risk on this side: Kubiak spent the week talking about not being one-dimensional, and Jeanty says he feels a lot better after the ankle and foot trouble. His two home games produced 102 and 58 yards. Buffalo's defense has played a heavy snap load, comes in on a short week after overtime, and Ed Oliver and T.J. Sanders are both questionable on the interior. If the Raiders stay close and keep feeding him, one long run could flip this.

  Betting on the scheme to finally click against the best run front for limiting yards before contact is a reach. I'll take the under.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.