Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills

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The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  JOSH ALLENPASSING YARDS OVER 250.5

  NFLBuffalo Bills· -113

  LOST · ACTUAL 248

  GARY'S TAKE

  Allen gets the exact matchup I want for a passing over. Detroit surrendered 410 passing yards and six completions of at least 20 yards in its opener, while Allen answered with 334 yards and a career-high five completions of 30-plus yards. Buffalo's conventional running game produced only 63 yards, giving Allen another reason to attack a secondary still missing Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph. The strongest counter is the larger sample: Allen averaged 227.1 passing yards across his final 10 games of 2025 and cleared this number six times. Aidan Hutchinson also generated four quarterback hits in Week 1. Even so, this line does not fully reflect how cleanly Allen's downfield approach matches Detroit's biggest defensive weakness.

  ×

  Josh Allen
  Passing Yards over 250.5

  -113 · LOST · ACTUAL 248

  Buffalo Bills

  Read Gary’s Take

  Allen gets the exact matchup I want for a passing over. Detroit surrendered 410 passing yards and six completions of at least 20 yards in its opener, while Allen answered with 334 yards and a career-high five completions of 30-plus yards.

  Buffalo's conventional running game produced only 63 yards, giving Allen another reason to attack a secondary still missing Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph. The strongest counter is the larger sample: Allen averaged 227.1 passing yards across his final 10 games of 2025 and cleared this number six times.

  Aidan Hutchinson also generated four quarterback hits in Week 1. Even so, this line does not fully reflect how cleanly Allen's downfield approach matches Detroit's biggest defensive weakness.

• GARY'S PICK

  JAMESON WILLIAMSRECEIVING YARDS OVER 57.5

  NFLDetroit Lions· -112

  LOST · ACTUAL 33

  GARY'S TAKE

  Williams cleared 57.5 receiving yards in eight of his final 10 games in 2025, averaging 82.8 over that stretch, and his nine targets in the opener confirm that his vertical role remains intact. Buffalo's new defense allowed Houston to sustain drives, convert seven third downs and score on four of five red-zone trips. If Buffalo scores as expected, Detroit will need Williams stretching the field instead of living entirely through Gibbs. The strongest contrary evidence is immediate: Williams caught only four of those nine Week 1 targets for 45 yards, dropped three catchable passes and lost a fumble. Detroit's two fresh offensive-line absences could also shorten Goff's throwing clock. I am betting that the opportunity and established explosive production outweigh one sloppy opener.

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  Jameson Williams
  Receiving Yards over 57.5

  -112 · LOST · ACTUAL 33

  Detroit Lions

  Read Gary’s Take

  Williams cleared 57.5 receiving yards in eight of his final 10 games in 2025, averaging 82.8 over that stretch, and his nine targets in the opener confirm that his vertical role remains intact. Buffalo's new defense allowed Houston to sustain drives, convert seven third downs and score on four of five red-zone trips.

  If Buffalo scores as expected, Detroit will need Williams stretching the field instead of living entirely through Gibbs. The strongest contrary evidence is immediate: Williams caught only four of those nine Week 1 targets for 45 yards, dropped three catchable passes and lost a fumble.

  Detroit's two fresh offensive-line absences could also shorten Goff's throwing clock. I am betting that the opportunity and established explosive production outweigh one sloppy opener.

• THE LONG SHOT

  AMON-RA ST. BROWNANYTIME TD OVER 0.5

  NFLDetroit Lions· +115

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 2

  GARY'S TAKE

  St. Brown drew 14 targets and scored twice in Detroit's opener, including the overtime winner. That is the clearest possible evidence of his role when Goff needs a completion near the goal line. Buffalo allowed touchdowns on four of Houston's five red-zone possessions, and Detroit also converted four of five red-zone trips, so plus money on Goff's most trusted receiver is attractive. The strongest counter is touchdown variance and the crowded distribution: Gibbs scored twice last week, while LaPorta and Williams also command meaningful targets. This is only one game of 2026 evidence, and St. Brown's 67 yards show that volume does not guarantee explosive production. I still want the price on the player Detroit targeted 14 times and twice finished drives through.

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  Amon-Ra St. Brown
  Anytime TD over 0.5

  +115 · CASHED · ACTUAL 2

  Detroit Lions

  Read Gary’s Take

  St. Brown drew 14 targets and scored twice in Detroit's opener, including the overtime winner. That is the clearest possible evidence of his role when Goff needs a completion near the goal line.

  Buffalo allowed touchdowns on four of Houston's five red-zone possessions, and Detroit also converted four of five red-zone trips, so plus money on Goff's most trusted receiver is attractive. The strongest counter is touchdown variance and the crowded distribution: Gibbs scored twice last week, while LaPorta and Williams also command meaningful targets. This is only one game of 2026 evidence, and St.

  Brown's 67 yards show that volume does not guarantee explosive production. I still want the price on the player Detroit targeted 14 times and twice finished drives through.

• THE LONG SHOT

  DJ MOOREANYTIME TD OVER 0.5

  NFLBuffalo Bills· +155

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Moore immediately operated as Buffalo's lead wideout, drawing eight targets and turning them into five catches, 100 yards and a touchdown. He ran a route on 81% of Allen's pass plays and commanded nearly a third of the targets on those routes. That role meets a Detroit secondary that just allowed 410 passing yards and six gains of at least 20 yards, making Moore a strong candidate to finish one of Allen's downfield shots. The strongest contrary evidence is his 2025 form: he cleared 62.5 receiving yards only four times in his final 10 games and scored just once in this new Buffalo offense's one-game sample. Kincaid, Palmer, Allen's legs and the running backs create substantial touchdown competition. At +155, however, Moore's usage and this matchup give me enough room to take the variance.

  ×

  DJ Moore
  Anytime TD over 0.5

  +155 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Buffalo Bills

  Read Gary’s Take

  Moore immediately operated as Buffalo's lead wideout, drawing eight targets and turning them into five catches, 100 yards and a touchdown. He ran a route on 81% of Allen's pass plays and commanded nearly a third of the targets on those routes.

  That role meets a Detroit secondary that just allowed 410 passing yards and six gains of at least 20 yards, making Moore a strong candidate to finish one of Allen's downfield shots. The strongest contrary evidence is his 2025 form: he cleared 62.5 receiving yards only four times in his final 10 games and scored just once in this new Buffalo offense's one-game sample.

  Kincaid, Palmer, Allen's legs and the running backs create substantial touchdown competition. At +155, however, Moore's usage and this matchup give me enough room to take the variance.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.