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NFL · Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills

O/U 40.5 · SPREAD Buffalo Bills -8.5 · Highmark Stadium

GARY'S PICK
Bills -7.5
NFLvs Chargers· +100

Bills
-7.5

+100 · CASHED · LAC 16 · BUF 24

Chargers

The pick & result

Published pick
Buffalo Bills -7.5 +100
Published odds
+100
Result
Won
Final score
16-24

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 37 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 21 6:00 AM
Close
Sep 27 12:24 PM
Move
SPREADBuffalo Bills -7 (-112)Buffalo Bills -7 (-105)Price
TOTAL50.5 (-108)50.5 (-108)Holds
MONEYLINEBuffalo Bills -350Buffalo Bills -350Holds
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 21 6:00 AMBuffalo Bills -7 (-112)50.5 (-108)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275
Sep 21 8:30 AMBuffalo Bills -7 (-108)50 (-112)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275
Sep 21 9:31 AMBuffalo Bills -7 (-110)50 (-110)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275
Sep 21 10:01 AMBuffalo Bills -7 (-108)50 (-110)Buffalo Bills -325 · Los Angeles Chargers +270
Sep 21 10:31 AMBuffalo Bills -7 (-110)50 (-112)Buffalo Bills -325 · Los Angeles Chargers +270
Sep 21 11:01 AMBuffalo Bills -7 (-108)50 (-110)Buffalo Bills -325 · Los Angeles Chargers +270
Sep 21 11:31 AMBuffalo Bills -7 (-108)50 (-110)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +270
Sep 21 12:32 PMBuffalo Bills -7 (-110)50 (-110)Buffalo Bills -325 · Los Angeles Chargers +270
Sep 22 6:00 AMBuffalo Bills -7 (-110)50 (-110)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275
Sep 22 8:30 AMBuffalo Bills -7 (-108)50 (-110)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275
Sep 22 1:47 PMBuffalo Bills -7 (-115)50 (-110)Buffalo Bills -375 · Los Angeles Chargers +300
Sep 22 2:55 PMBuffalo Bills -7 (-105)50 (-110)Buffalo Bills -375 · Los Angeles Chargers +300
Sep 22 4:56 PMBuffalo Bills -7 (-112)50 (-110)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +290
Sep 22 5:57 PMBuffalo Bills -7 (-112)50 (-110)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275
Sep 22 6:57 PMBuffalo Bills -7 (-115)50 (-110)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +280
Sep 23 9:49 AMBuffalo Bills -7 (-110)50 (-110)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +280
Sep 23 3:05 PMBuffalo Bills -7 (-108)50 (-110)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +280
Sep 23 7:07 PMBuffalo Bills -7 (-112)50 (-110)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +280
Sep 23 8:07 PMBuffalo Bills -7 (-115)50 (-110)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +290
Sep 24 6:00 AMBuffalo Bills -7 (-115)50 (-110)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275
Sep 24 8:00 AMBuffalo Bills -7 (-112)50 (-110)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275
Sep 24 3:23 PMBuffalo Bills -7 (-115)50 (-110)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275
Sep 24 4:53 PMBuffalo Bills -7 (-112)50 (-110)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275
Sep 25 3:02 PMBuffalo Bills -7 (-112)50 (-110)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +270
Sep 25 4:03 PMBuffalo Bills -7 (-112)50 (-110)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275
Sep 25 4:54 PMBuffalo Bills -7 (-115)50 (-108)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275
Sep 25 8:05 PMBuffalo Bills -7 (-112)50 (-110)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275
Sep 25 10:06 PMBuffalo Bills -7 (-115)50 (-108)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275
Sep 26 1:02 PMBuffalo Bills -7 (-110)50 (-108)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275
Sep 26 4:33 PMBuffalo Bills -7 (-112)50 (-108)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275
Sep 27 12:14 AMBuffalo Bills -7 (-112)50 (-108)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275
Sep 27 12:44 AMBuffalo Bills -7 (-112)50 (-110)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275
Sep 27 9:00 AMBuffalo Bills -7 (-110)50 (-110)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275
Sep 27 9:31 AMBuffalo Bills -7 (-108)50 (-112)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275
Sep 27 11:22 AMBuffalo Bills -7 (-108)50 (-112)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +280
Sep 27 11:43 AMBuffalo Bills -7 (-105)50.5 (-110)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275
Sep 27 12:14 PMBuffalo Bills -7 (-105)50 (-110)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275
CLOSESep 27 12:24 PMBuffalo Bills -7 (-105)50.5 (-108)Buffalo Bills -350 · Los Angeles Chargers +275

The read

I’m laying the 7.5 at even money. Buffalo’s ability to attack through Allen, Cook and its tight ends gives it several ways to get beyond one score. The Chargers have allowed 8.03 yards per pass attempt through two games; their stronger run-defense results don’t convince me they can consistently force this offense off the field. Kincaid’s 12 catches for 225 yards also give Buffalo a productive option while Moore’s availability remains unresolved.

The other matchup I trust is Buffalo’s rush against Los Angeles’s protection. The Chargers have surrendered six sacks on 66 dropbacks, while Buffalo has generated seven on 86. Awosika is out after playing 74% of last week’s offensive snaps. That creates another adjustment for an offense already struggling to sustain possessions. I’m not treating Slater or Strange as absent: the returned practice report lists both as full participants with no game designation.

The strongest argument against this ticket is substantial: Buffalo has allowed 31 points in both games, and Herbert could exploit that defense enough to stay inside the extra half-point. These are only two-game samples, so I expect a closer contest than the scoring averages suggest. Still, I trust Buffalo to produce scoring drives more consistently and its rush to interrupt enough Chargers possessions to create an eight-point margin. At +100, that outweighs the backdoor-cover risk.

Injuries noted

Los Angeles Chargers: Isaiah World (NFI-R) — nfi-r; Tyler Biadasz (IR) — The Chargers placed Biadasz (knee) on injured reserve Sunday.; Scott Matlock (IR-R) — Matlock (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Chargers on Sunday with a designation to return.; Denzel Perryman (IR) — ir; Branson Taylor (IR-R) — The Chargers placed Taylor (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Ian Rapoport of ESPN and NFL Network reports.; Deane Leonard (Questionable) — questionable; Elijah Molden (Out) — Molden (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Bills.; KeAndre Lambert-Smith (IR) — The Chargers placed Lambert-Smith (hamstring) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Trey Pipkins III (IR) — The Chargers placed Pipkins (knee) on injured reserve Saturday.; Dalvin Tomlinson (Out) — Tomlinson (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Bills.; Derwin James Jr. (Questionable) — James (finger) did not participate at practice Wednesday.; David Njoku (IR) — The Chargers placed Njoku (fibula) on injured reserve Wednesday.; Kayode Awosika (Out) — Awosika (leg) is listed as out for Sunday's game against the Bills.; Charlie Kolar (Out) — Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh said Wednesday that Kolar (forearm) won't play Sunday in Buffalo but is expected to avoid placement on injured reserve, Kris Rhim of ESPN.com reports.; Brenen Thompson (Out) — Thompson (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Bills.; Rodney Shelley (Questionable) — questionable; Rashawn Slater (Questionable) — questionable; Cole Strange (Questionable) — questionable; Tuli Tuipulotu (Questionable) — questionable; Trey Lance (Questionable) — Lance was a limited participant in Friday's practice due to a groin injury and is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Bills.

Buffalo Bills: Tyrell Shavers (PUP-R) — out; Dorian Strong (NFI-R) — nfi-r; Ty Johnson (Questionable) — questionable; Phidarian Mathis (Reserve-Sus) — reserve-sus; Zane Durant (IR-R) — ir; T.J. Sanders (Out) — Sanders (appendix) won't play in Sunday's game against the Chargers.; Ar'maj Reed-Adams (Questionable) — questionable; Ed Oliver (Questionable) — Oliver (hip) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Chargers.; DJ Moore (Questionable) — Head coach Joe Brady said Friday that Moore (shoulder) will be listed as questionable and a game-time decision for Sunday's contest against the Chargers, Katherine Fitzgerald of The Buffalo News reports.; Keon Coleman (Questionable) — Coleman (ankle), who is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Chargers, is expected to play, Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports.; Jordan Hancock (IR) — The Bills placed Hancock (hamstring) on injured reserve Friday.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Justin Herbert is the projected starting quarterback for LAC

    7.43 Y/A

    Through 2 games in 2026, Justin Herbert threw for 401 passing yards, completed 59.3% of his passes and averaged 7.43 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3727 yards, completed 66.4% and averaged 7.28 yards per attempt, 26-13 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

  • Josh Allen is the projected starting quarterback for BUF

    9.7 Y/A

    Through 2 games in 2026, Josh Allen threw for 582 passing yards, completed 66.7% of his passes and averaged 9.7 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3668 yards, completed 69.3% and averaged 7.97 yards per attempt, 25-10 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

TRENCHES

  • BUF: 144.5 rushing yards per game to LAC's 104

    40.5 YPG

    LAC is at 104 rushing yards per game over 2 games; BUF is at 144.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season LAC was at 121.6 over 17 games and BUF at 159.6 over 17 games.

  • BUF: 4.85 yards per rush attempt to LAC's 3.95

    0.9 Y/C

    LAC is at 3.95 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; BUF is at 4.85 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season LAC was at 4.58 over 17 games and BUF at 4.97 over 17 games.

PASS RUSH

  • BUF: 3.5 sacks recorded per game to LAC's 1.5

    2 SACKS

    Buffalo's pass rush has produced more sacks through 2 games than the Chargers' has. Two games can turn on a few high-leverage dropbacks, and this sheet offers no opponent or pressure context to explain the difference. For this matchup, sacks are a reason to check passing-game risk, not a standalone case for either side.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • BUF: 38.5 points per game to LAC's 14

    24.5 PPG

    Buffalo is turning drives into points at a far higher rate, while the Chargers have opened well below their 21.6 points per game last season. This is only 2 games, though Buffalo's 38.5 also sits above its 28.3 last-season mark. The scoring gap matters most if Los Angeles cannot keep the game close enough to limit Buffalo's offensive volume.

  • LAC @ BUF carries a 50.5 market total

    50.5

    Seven points above the slate median, this number expects LAC at BUF to produce more combined offense than most games on the board. The total has room to move if game-specific information changes the outlook for either offense, so it is a useful benchmark for judging whether the market is pricing enough scoring.

  • LAC: 26 points allowed per game to BUF's 31

    5 PPG

    LAC is at 26 points allowed per game over 2 games; BUF is at 31 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season LAC was at 20 over 17 games and BUF at 21.5 over 17 games.

TURNOVERS

  • BUF: 1 takeaways per game to LAC's 0.5

    0.5 TO

    Buffalo has created more takeaways than Los Angeles through 2 games. Turnovers can shape a game fast, but this is only a 2-game sample and one extra takeaway can materially change the gap.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • BUF: 7.2 yards per play to LAC's 5.15

    2.05 Y/P

    Buffalo is creating far more yardage on each snap, which points to an offense finding explosive plays rather than living on long drives. The 2-game sample includes 7 plays of 20+ yards for Buffalo in its last game, while Los Angeles had 1, led by a 53-yard pass to Tre' Harris. Buffalo's 7.2 is above 5.94 last season, so explosive-play volume is the pressure point for Los Angeles.

RED ZONE

  • LAC: 50% red-zone scoring allowed to BUF's 77.8%

    27.8 PP

    Los Angeles has been better at forcing field goals near the goal line than Buffalo through 2 games. The Chargers' 2-game sample offers an early red-zone advantage, while Buffalo's number leaves room for regression in either direction.

  • BUF: 4 red-zone trips per game to LAC's 2.5

    1.5 TRIPS

    LAC is at 2.5 red-zone trips per game over 2 games; BUF is at 4 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season LAC was at 3.35 over 17 games and BUF at 3.82 over 17 games.

MISMATCH

  • BUF: 0 turnovers a game to LAC's 2.5

    0 VS 2.5

    Buffalo has not turned the ball over in 2 games, while the Chargers have given it away 2.5 times a game. That is a major early reversal for Los Angeles after 1.24 turnovers a game last season, while Buffalo was at 1.12. The Chargers need cleaner possessions to keep this from becoming a field-position game, because extra Buffalo drives can shape both scoring chances and tempo.

COVERAGE

  • LAC: 35.7% third downs allowed to BUF's 40.7%

    5 PP

    LAC is at 35.7% third downs allowed over 2 games; BUF is at 40.7% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.

REPLACEMENT

  • David Njoku (TE) is on injured reserve for LAC

    IR

    Njoku is on injured reserve with a fibula injury after the Chargers made the move Wednesday. He is out of the lineup for the trip to Buffalo, leaving Los Angeles without its tight end in this game.

  • Jordan Hancock (CB) is on injured reserve for BUF

    IR

    Hancock is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury after Buffalo placed him there Friday. He is unavailable against the Chargers, leaving the Bills without a cornerback for this game.

  • KeAndre Lambert-Smith (WR) is on injured reserve for LAC

    IR

    Lambert-Smith is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury after the Chargers placed him there Tuesday. He is unavailable for the game at Buffalo, taking a Chargers wide receiver out of the active lineup.

  • Trey Pipkins III (OT) is on injured reserve for LAC

    IR

    Pipkins is on injured reserve with a knee injury after the Chargers placed him there Saturday. He is unavailable at Buffalo, removing a Chargers offensive tackle from the line for this matchup.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • T.J. Sanders

    Out

    Illness · Did not practice · Out

  • Brenen Thompson

    Out

    Quadricep · Did not practice · Out

  • Charlie Kolar

    Out

    Forearm · Did not practice · Out

  • Kayode Awosika

    Out

    Fibula · Did not practice · Out

  • Elijah Molden

    Out

    Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

  • Dalvin Tomlinson

    Out

    Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

  • Rodney Shelley

    Questionable

    Hamstring · Limited practice · Questionable

  • DJ Moore

    Questionable

    Shoulder · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Keon Coleman

    Questionable

    Ankle · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Ar'maj Reed-Adams

    Questionable

    Elbow · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Ed Oliver

    Questionable

    Hip · Full practice · Questionable

  • Trey Lance

    Questionable

    Groin · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Terrel Bernard

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • Cole Bishop

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Derius Davis

    FP

    Full practice

  • Bradley Chubb

    FP

    Full practice

  • Bud Dupree

    FP

    Full practice

  • Teair Tart

    FP

    Full practice

  • Tuli Tuipulotu

    FP

    Full practice

  • Cole Strange

    FP

    Full practice

  • Deane Leonard

    FP

    Full practice

  • Ladd McConkey

    FP

    Full practice

  • Khalil Mack

    FP

    Full practice

  • Akheem Mesidor

    FP

    Full practice

  • Joe Andreessen

    FP

    Full practice

  • Ty Johnson

    FP

    Full practice

  • Rashawn Slater

    FP

    Full practice

  • Derwin James Jr.

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • LAC (0-2) at BUF (2-0)

    +39 PT GAP

    Buffalo has opened 2-0 with a +15 point margin, while the Chargers are 0-2 and -24. Both clubs carry two-game streaks in opposite directions, but Buffalo's only home result was a win and the Chargers have no road result listed. The Bills have the early profile of the steadier side, while Los Angeles needs its first road sample to change the picture.

  • LAC: 1.5 fourth-down attempts per game to BUF's 0.5

    1 ATT/G

    LAC is at 1.5 fourth-down attempts per game over 2 games; BUF is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season LAC was at 1.24 over 17 games and BUF at 1.88 over 17 games.

  • BUF has 3 more days of rest

    7d vs 10d

    Buffalo gets three extra days to reset, with 10 days off and a bye behind it while the Chargers had the standard seven-day turn. That gives Buffalo more time for recovery, game planning and any lineup decisions. The Chargers need to manage a normal weekly install on the road, while the Bills arrive with the fresher calendar.

AFTER GARY

  • BUF -7.5 → -7.5

    NO MOVE

    Gary's number was -7.5; the market closed at -7.5.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 24, 2026 at 4:27 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    ORONDE GADSDENRECEPTIONS UNDER 3.5
    NFLLos Angeles Chargers· -130

    Oronde Gadsden
    Receptions under 3.5

    -130 · CASHED · ACTUAL 0

    Los Angeles Chargers

    I’m taking under 3.5 receptions at -130. Gadsden has drawn two targets in each of the Chargers’ two games.

    Four catches would require a sizable jump in opportunities, and Buffalo’s pass rush has seven sacks through two games against a Chargers offense that has allowed six. The strongest case against me is his changing role: Kolar is out, and Buffalo has allowed tight ends 14 catches in two games.

    Gadsden could become Herbert’s quick outlet if that rush gets home.

  • GARY'S PICK
    JOSH ALLENPASSING ATTEMPTS UNDER 30.5
    NFLBuffalo Bills· -119

    Josh Allen
    Passing Attempts under 30.5

    -119 · CASHED · ACTUAL 26

    Buffalo Bills

    I’m taking under 30.5 passing attempts at -119. Allen has thrown 29 and 31 passes in Buffalo’s two games while carrying the ball 20 times.

    Cook has added 192 rushing yards. I expect those ground options and Buffalo’s efficient passing game to give Allen a path to scoring without a large attempt count against a Chargers defense that has allowed four passing touchdowns in two games.

    The strongest objection is Los Angeles’s run defense, which has allowed 86.5 yards per game through two games. Buffalo has also conceded 31 points in each game, so a close contest could keep Allen throwing.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

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