For the first time ever, Florida and Georgia meet in Atlanta, under the roof at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, about 60 miles from Athens. Georgia is laying 11.5. I'm taking the points. Georgia is the better team, but its last two games against real SEC opponents were coin flips: a 20-17 win at Alabama and a 27-24 home loss to Auburn. Three of the four interceptions on Gunner Stockton's season line came in those two games, and Stockton is coming off a shoulder stinger. The bigger crack is the run defense. Georgia held Vanderbilt to 92 rushing yards, Oklahoma to 79 and Arkansas to 45. Then it gave up 190 to Alabama and 209 to Auburn. That's where Florida wants to play. Jadan Baugh ran for 162 at Auburn and 142 against Ole Miss. Florida held the ball 39:16, 36:59 and 38:11 in its three SEC wins. Long drives mean fewer possessions, and fewer possessions make double digits hard to cover. Florida's front can get home too. It had 7 sacks at Auburn, then 5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss at Texas, where Texas went 2-of-10 on third down. Aaron Philo is expected back at quarterback. Florida won at Texas without a single play of 20+ yards. Philo went 21-of-28 for 227 against South Carolina, the game where the shoulder injury happened. The case against is real. Georgia outgained Alabama 459-375 and Auburn 454-383. Turnovers (4 given, 1 taken) and Peyton Woodring going 3-of-5 on field goals kept those games close, and that kind of luck evens out. Florida's floor is ugly as well: 17-45 at Missouri on 68 rushing yards, and 19-38 against South Carolina with 3 giveaways. If Georgia stuffs Baugh early, this gets away fast. Philo's start also rests on sourced reports, not the team, and receivers Bailey Stockton and Vernell Brown III are both questionable. Bottom line: I make Georgia a single-digit favorite, not a double-digit one. Florida +11.5.
For the first time ever, Florida and Georgia meet in Atlanta, under the roof at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, about 60 miles from Athens. Georgia is laying 11.5. I'm taking the points.
Georgia is the better team, but its last two games against real SEC opponents were coin flips: a 20-17 win at Alabama and a 27-24 home loss to Auburn. Three of the four interceptions on Gunner Stockton's season line came in those two games, and Stockton is coming off a shoulder stinger.
The bigger crack is the run defense. Georgia held Vanderbilt to 92 rushing yards, Oklahoma to 79 and Arkansas to 45. Then it gave up 190 to Alabama and 209 to Auburn. That's where Florida wants to play. Jadan Baugh ran for 162 at Auburn and 142 against Ole Miss. Florida held the ball 39:16, 36:59 and 38:11 in its three SEC wins. Long drives mean fewer possessions, and fewer possessions make double digits hard to cover.
Florida's front can get home too. It had 7 sacks at Auburn, then 5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss at Texas, where Texas went 2-of-10 on third down. Aaron Philo is expected back at quarterback. Florida won at Texas without a single play of 20+ yards. Philo went 21-of-28 for 227 against South Carolina, the game where the shoulder injury happened.
The case against is real. Georgia outgained Alabama 459-375 and Auburn 454-383. Turnovers (4 given, 1 taken) and Peyton Woodring going 3-of-5 on field goals kept those games close, and that kind of luck evens out. Florida's floor is ugly as well: 17-45 at Missouri on 68 rushing yards, and 19-38 against South Carolina with 3 giveaways. If Georgia stuffs Baugh early, this gets away fast. Philo's start also rests on sourced reports, not the team, and receivers Bailey Stockton and Vernell Brown III are both questionable.
Bottom line: I make Georgia a single-digit favorite, not a double-digit one. Florida +11.5.
Florida +11.5