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NCAAF · Sat, Oct 10 · 7:30 PM

Georgia Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson Tide

O/U 51.5 · SPREAD Alabama Crimson Tide -2.5 · Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL

GARY'S PICK
Alabama -2.5
NCAAFvs Georgia· -105

Alabama
-2.5

-105 · LOST · UGA 20 · ALA 17

Georgia

The pick & result

Published pick
Alabama Crimson Tide -2.5 -105
Published odds
-105
Result
Lost
Final score
20-17

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

FANATICS · 46 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 4 12:04 AM
Close
Oct 10 7:27 PM
Move
SPREADAlabama Crimson Tide +2 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -2.5 (-110)+½
TOTAL56.5 (-110)52 (-110)−4½
MONEYLINEAlabama Crimson Tide +100Alabama Crimson Tide -130−230
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 4 12:04 AMAlabama Crimson Tide +2 (-110)56.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide +100 · Georgia Bulldogs -120
Oct 4 6:00 AMAlabama Crimson Tide +2 (-110)56.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide +105 · Georgia Bulldogs -125
Oct 4 12:31 PMAlabama Crimson Tide +1.5 (-110)56.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide +100 · Georgia Bulldogs -120
Oct 4 3:56 PMAlabama Crimson Tide +1 (-115)56.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -105 · Georgia Bulldogs -115
Oct 4 4:56 PMAlabama Crimson Tide +1 (-115)55.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -110 · Georgia Bulldogs -110
Oct 4 5:49 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -1 (-110)55.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -110 · Georgia Bulldogs -110
Oct 4 7:50 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -1 (-110)55.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -115 · Georgia Bulldogs -105
Oct 4 9:51 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -1 (-110)55.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -110 · Georgia Bulldogs -110
Oct 4 11:52 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110)55.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -115 · Georgia Bulldogs -105
Oct 5 12:53 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110)55.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100
Oct 5 6:00 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110)55.5 (-105)Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100
Oct 5 3:57 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110)55.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100
Oct 5 4:57 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110)55.5 (-105)Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105
Oct 6 6:00 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110)55.5 (-105)Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100
Oct 6 8:30 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110)55 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100
Oct 6 10:12 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110)54.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100
Oct 6 1:13 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110)54.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105
Oct 6 3:31 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-105)53.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105
Oct 6 4:02 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110)53.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105
Oct 6 4:32 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-105)53 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105
Oct 6 5:02 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110)53.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105
Oct 6 6:32 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110)53 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105
Oct 6 7:02 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-105)53 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105
Oct 6 8:03 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110)53 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100
Oct 6 9:33 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110)52.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100
Oct 7 4:04 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110)52 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100
Oct 7 6:36 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110)51.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100
Oct 8 6:00 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110)51 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100
Oct 8 5:47 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -2 (-110)51 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100
Oct 8 11:48 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110)51 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100
Oct 9 12:18 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -2 (-110)51 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100
Oct 9 9:31 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110)51 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100
Oct 9 10:01 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110)51.5 (-105)Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100
Oct 9 1:01 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110)51 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100
Oct 9 3:02 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -2 (-110)51 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100
Oct 9 4:00 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -2 (-110)51.5 (-105)Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100
Oct 9 6:40 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -2.5 (-110)51.5 (-105)Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105
Oct 10 12:23 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -2.5 (-110)51.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105
Oct 10 5:00 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -2 (-110)51.5 (-115)Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105
Oct 10 6:00 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -2.5 (-110)51.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105
Oct 10 10:42 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -2.5 (-110)51.5 (-115)Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105
Oct 10 11:02 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -2.5 (-110)51.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105
Oct 10 11:28 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -2.5 (-110)51.5 (-115)Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105
Oct 10 12:09 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -2.5 (-110)52 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105
Oct 10 1:09 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -2 (-110)52 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105
Oct 10 1:30 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -2.5 (-110)52 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105
CLOSEOct 10 7:27 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -2.5 (-110)52 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -130 · Georgia Bulldogs +110

The read

Two unbeaten SEC teams meet under the lights at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Georgia brings the higher ranking, while Alabama gets this test at home.

I favor Alabama’s ability to create scoring opportunities through Keelon Russell and its receivers. Russell threw for 365 yards against South Carolina and 285 against Mississippi State, with seven touchdown passes and no interceptions across those games. Ryan Coleman-Williams and Lotzeir Brooks give him demonstrated downfield production. Grubb’s reported under-center and bootleg package adds another assignment challenge for Georgia, even if the Bulldogs make rushing yards difficult to find.

Alabama’s defensive front supplies the other part of the case. Its 16 sacks and opponents’ 27.5% third-down conversion rate describe a defense capable of ending possessions. Georgia’s offensive success drops from 60.1% on standard downs to 35.6% on passing downs. I expect Alabama’s disruption to interrupt enough drives to give Russell additional opportunities to attack.

Georgia’s defense is the strongest obstacle. It has allowed less explosive damage and fewer points per scoring opportunity, and Gunner Stockton can punish Alabama’s own defensive lapses. Georgia also has capable backfield options in Nate Frazier and Dwight Phillips Jr. Still, its offensive efficiency comes against a softer schedule, and its Oklahoma game showed how possessions can stall against resistance.

My conviction is that Alabama can pair explosive passing with enough defensive stops to separate. At -2.5 (-105), a three-point win covers, and I prefer that price to paying -126 for the moneyline.

Injuries noted

Georgia Bulldogs: Thomas Blackshear (out) — WR #2 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Chauncey Bowens (out) — RB #5 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Isiah Canion (out) — WR #6 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Amaris Williams (out) — OLB #17 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Tyriq Green (out) — S #23 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Marcus Harrison (out) — OL #76 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report

Alabama Crimson Tide: Justin Hill (out) — LB #8 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Desmond Umeozulu (out) — LB #9 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Jorden Edmonds (questionable) — DB #16 listed Questionable on the SEC Update 2 report; Cayden Jones (out) — LB #23 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Nick Sherman (out) — DB #29 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Josh Ford (questionable) — TE #40 listed Questionable on the SEC Update 2 report; Jeremiah Beaman (out) — DL #92 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Keelon Russell is ALA's confirmed starter

    10.74 Y/A

    Keelon Russell is ALA's confirmed starting quarterback. October 9 reporting ahead of the Georgia game identifies Russell as Alabama's QB1 and states that he won the starting job over Austin Mack. 2026 line: 1407 passing yards, 71.0% completions, 10.74 yards per attempt, 11-2 TD-INT over 5 games.

  • Gunner Stockton is UGA's confirmed starter

    10.28 Y/A

    Gunner Stockton is UGA's confirmed starting quarterback. Georgia's October 5 Alabama game preview identifies Stockton as its established starting quarterback, discusses his current starting record, and details his most recent start against Vanderbilt. October 7 matchup reporting also identifies him as Georgia's quarterback. 2026 line: 1049 passing yards, 75.5% completions, 10.28 yards per attempt, 13-1 TD-INT over 5 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • ALA: 33:13 time of possession per game to UGA's 22:46

    10:26 TOP

    Alabama holds the ball about a third longer than Georgia does, so the Tide are dictating pace and Georgia's offense is spending a lot of time on the sideline. Georgia ran 33:53 last season, so their 22:46 over five games is a big break from their usual style. Alabama sits close to its 31:35 from last season. In Tuscaloosa, a Georgia team that keeps getting outpossessed has fewer snaps to work with, and that matters for its team total.

MISMATCH

  • ALA: 33:13 of possession a game to UGA's 22:46

    33:13 VS 22:46

    Alabama holds the ball 33:13 a game over five games, close to last season's 31:35, while Georgia has dropped to 22:46 from 33:53. Georgia's drop is the outlier and probably reflects how its games have played out, so expect it to move back toward normal. At home, Alabama can shorten the game with long drives. Georgia has to win possession battles to keep Alabama's offense off the field.

REPLACEMENT

  • Thomas Blackshear (WR) is out for UGA

    OUT

    WR #2 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Chauncey Bowens (RB) is out for UGA

    OUT

    RB #5 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Isiah Canion (WR) is out for UGA

    OUT

    WR #6 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Amaris Williams (LB) is out for UGA

    OUT

    OLB #17 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Tyriq Green (S) is out for UGA

    OUT

    S #23 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Marcus Harrison (OL) is out for UGA

    OUT

    OL #76 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Justin Hill (LB) is out for ALA

    OUT

    LB #8 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Desmond Umeozulu (LB) is out for ALA

    OUT

    LB #9 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Cayden Jones (LB) is out for ALA

    OUT

    LB #23 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Nick Sherman (DB) is out for ALA

    OUT

    DB #29 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Jeremiah Beaman (DL) is out for ALA

    OUT

    DL #92 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

SITUATIONAL

  • No. 2 Georgia at No. 6 Alabama

    #2 VS #6

    Both teams are 5-0, but voters see a clear gap: Georgia has 1647 points and 6 first-place votes, Alabama 1460 and none. Alabama moved up one spot this week while Georgia held, so the room between them is shrinking. A home win would likely flip the order, and Georgia has more ranking to lose on the road. Spots like this ask whether you trust the poll gap or the home field more.

TEAM RECORD

  • SEC game: UGA 3-0, ALA 3-0 in conference

    CONFERENCE

    These two share the SEC. UGA is 3-0 against it, ALA is 3-0. 2026 standings through 2026-10-10.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 10, 2026 at 8:14 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, fanatics, betmgm, betrivers, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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