Georgia Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson Tide
O/U 51.5 · SPREAD Alabama Crimson Tide -2.5 · Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Alabama Crimson Tide -2.5 -105
- Published odds
- -105
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 20-17
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
FANATICS · 46 moves| Market | Opened Oct 4 12:04 AM | Close Oct 10 7:27 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Alabama Crimson Tide +2 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -2.5 (-110) | +½ |
| TOTAL | 56.5 (-110) | 52 (-110) | −4½ |
| MONEYLINE | Alabama Crimson Tide +100 | Alabama Crimson Tide -130 | −230 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 4 12:04 AM | Alabama Crimson Tide +2 (-110) | 56.5 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide +100 · Georgia Bulldogs -120 |
| Oct 4 6:00 AM | Alabama Crimson Tide +2 (-110) | 56.5 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide +105 · Georgia Bulldogs -125 |
| Oct 4 12:31 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide +1.5 (-110) | 56.5 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide +100 · Georgia Bulldogs -120 |
| Oct 4 3:56 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide +1 (-115) | 56.5 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -105 · Georgia Bulldogs -115 |
| Oct 4 4:56 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide +1 (-115) | 55.5 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -110 · Georgia Bulldogs -110 |
| Oct 4 5:49 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide -1 (-110) | 55.5 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -110 · Georgia Bulldogs -110 |
| Oct 4 7:50 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide -1 (-110) | 55.5 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -115 · Georgia Bulldogs -105 |
| Oct 4 9:51 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide -1 (-110) | 55.5 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -110 · Georgia Bulldogs -110 |
| Oct 4 11:52 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -115 · Georgia Bulldogs -105 |
| Oct 5 12:53 AM | Alabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100 |
| Oct 5 6:00 AM | Alabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-105) | Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100 |
| Oct 5 3:57 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100 |
| Oct 5 4:57 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-105) | Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105 |
| Oct 6 6:00 AM | Alabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-105) | Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100 |
| Oct 6 8:30 AM | Alabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110) | 55 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100 |
| Oct 6 10:12 AM | Alabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100 |
| Oct 6 1:13 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105 |
| Oct 6 3:31 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-105) | 53.5 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105 |
| Oct 6 4:02 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105 |
| Oct 6 4:32 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-105) | 53 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105 |
| Oct 6 5:02 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105 |
| Oct 6 6:32 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110) | 53 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105 |
| Oct 6 7:02 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-105) | 53 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105 |
| Oct 6 8:03 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110) | 53 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100 |
| Oct 6 9:33 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110) | 52.5 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100 |
| Oct 7 4:04 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110) | 52 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100 |
| Oct 7 6:36 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100 |
| Oct 8 6:00 AM | Alabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110) | 51 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100 |
| Oct 8 5:47 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide -2 (-110) | 51 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100 |
| Oct 8 11:48 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110) | 51 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100 |
| Oct 9 12:18 AM | Alabama Crimson Tide -2 (-110) | 51 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100 |
| Oct 9 9:31 AM | Alabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110) | 51 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100 |
| Oct 9 10:01 AM | Alabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-105) | Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100 |
| Oct 9 1:01 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (-110) | 51 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100 |
| Oct 9 3:02 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide -2 (-110) | 51 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100 |
| Oct 9 4:00 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide -2 (-110) | 51.5 (-105) | Alabama Crimson Tide -120 · Georgia Bulldogs +100 |
| Oct 9 6:40 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide -2.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-105) | Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105 |
| Oct 10 12:23 AM | Alabama Crimson Tide -2.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105 |
| Oct 10 5:00 AM | Alabama Crimson Tide -2 (-110) | 51.5 (-115) | Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105 |
| Oct 10 6:00 AM | Alabama Crimson Tide -2.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105 |
| Oct 10 10:42 AM | Alabama Crimson Tide -2.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-115) | Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105 |
| Oct 10 11:02 AM | Alabama Crimson Tide -2.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105 |
| Oct 10 11:28 AM | Alabama Crimson Tide -2.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-115) | Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105 |
| Oct 10 12:09 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide -2.5 (-110) | 52 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105 |
| Oct 10 1:09 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide -2 (-110) | 52 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105 |
| Oct 10 1:30 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide -2.5 (-110) | 52 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -125 · Georgia Bulldogs +105 |
| CLOSEOct 10 7:27 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide -2.5 (-110) | 52 (-110) | Alabama Crimson Tide -130 · Georgia Bulldogs +110 |
The read
Two unbeaten SEC teams meet under the lights at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Georgia brings the higher ranking, while Alabama gets this test at home.
I favor Alabama’s ability to create scoring opportunities through Keelon Russell and its receivers. Russell threw for 365 yards against South Carolina and 285 against Mississippi State, with seven touchdown passes and no interceptions across those games. Ryan Coleman-Williams and Lotzeir Brooks give him demonstrated downfield production. Grubb’s reported under-center and bootleg package adds another assignment challenge for Georgia, even if the Bulldogs make rushing yards difficult to find.
Alabama’s defensive front supplies the other part of the case. Its 16 sacks and opponents’ 27.5% third-down conversion rate describe a defense capable of ending possessions. Georgia’s offensive success drops from 60.1% on standard downs to 35.6% on passing downs. I expect Alabama’s disruption to interrupt enough drives to give Russell additional opportunities to attack.
Georgia’s defense is the strongest obstacle. It has allowed less explosive damage and fewer points per scoring opportunity, and Gunner Stockton can punish Alabama’s own defensive lapses. Georgia also has capable backfield options in Nate Frazier and Dwight Phillips Jr. Still, its offensive efficiency comes against a softer schedule, and its Oklahoma game showed how possessions can stall against resistance.
My conviction is that Alabama can pair explosive passing with enough defensive stops to separate. At -2.5 (-105), a three-point win covers, and I prefer that price to paying -126 for the moneyline.
Injuries noted
Georgia Bulldogs: Thomas Blackshear (out) — WR #2 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Chauncey Bowens (out) — RB #5 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Isiah Canion (out) — WR #6 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Amaris Williams (out) — OLB #17 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Tyriq Green (out) — S #23 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Marcus Harrison (out) — OL #76 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report
Alabama Crimson Tide: Justin Hill (out) — LB #8 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Desmond Umeozulu (out) — LB #9 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Jorden Edmonds (questionable) — DB #16 listed Questionable on the SEC Update 2 report; Cayden Jones (out) — LB #23 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Nick Sherman (out) — DB #29 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Josh Ford (questionable) — TE #40 listed Questionable on the SEC Update 2 report; Jeremiah Beaman (out) — DL #92 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Keelon Russell is ALA's confirmed starter
10.74 Y/AKeelon Russell is ALA's confirmed starting quarterback. October 9 reporting ahead of the Georgia game identifies Russell as Alabama's QB1 and states that he won the starting job over Austin Mack. 2026 line: 1407 passing yards, 71.0% completions, 10.74 yards per attempt, 11-2 TD-INT over 5 games.
Gunner Stockton is UGA's confirmed starter
10.28 Y/AGunner Stockton is UGA's confirmed starting quarterback. Georgia's October 5 Alabama game preview identifies Stockton as its established starting quarterback, discusses his current starting record, and details his most recent start against Vanderbilt. October 7 matchup reporting also identifies him as Georgia's quarterback. 2026 line: 1049 passing yards, 75.5% completions, 10.28 yards per attempt, 13-1 TD-INT over 5 games.
PACE & SCRIPT
ALA: 33:13 time of possession per game to UGA's 22:46
10:26 TOPAlabama holds the ball about a third longer than Georgia does, so the Tide are dictating pace and Georgia's offense is spending a lot of time on the sideline. Georgia ran 33:53 last season, so their 22:46 over five games is a big break from their usual style. Alabama sits close to its 31:35 from last season. In Tuscaloosa, a Georgia team that keeps getting outpossessed has fewer snaps to work with, and that matters for its team total.
MISMATCH
ALA: 33:13 of possession a game to UGA's 22:46
33:13 VS 22:46Alabama holds the ball 33:13 a game over five games, close to last season's 31:35, while Georgia has dropped to 22:46 from 33:53. Georgia's drop is the outlier and probably reflects how its games have played out, so expect it to move back toward normal. At home, Alabama can shorten the game with long drives. Georgia has to win possession battles to keep Alabama's offense off the field.
REPLACEMENT
Thomas Blackshear (WR) is out for UGA
OUTWR #2 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)
Chauncey Bowens (RB) is out for UGA
OUTRB #5 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)
Isiah Canion (WR) is out for UGA
OUTWR #6 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)
Amaris Williams (LB) is out for UGA
OUTOLB #17 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)
Tyriq Green (S) is out for UGA
OUTS #23 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)
Marcus Harrison (OL) is out for UGA
OUTOL #76 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)
Justin Hill (LB) is out for ALA
OUTLB #8 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)
Desmond Umeozulu (LB) is out for ALA
OUTLB #9 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)
Cayden Jones (LB) is out for ALA
OUTLB #23 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)
Nick Sherman (DB) is out for ALA
OUTDB #29 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)
Jeremiah Beaman (DL) is out for ALA
OUTDL #92 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)
SITUATIONAL
No. 2 Georgia at No. 6 Alabama
#2 VS #6Both teams are 5-0, but voters see a clear gap: Georgia has 1647 points and 6 first-place votes, Alabama 1460 and none. Alabama moved up one spot this week while Georgia held, so the room between them is shrinking. A home win would likely flip the order, and Georgia has more ranking to lose on the road. Spots like this ask whether you trust the poll gap or the home field more.
TEAM RECORD
SEC game: UGA 3-0, ALA 3-0 in conference
CONFERENCEThese two share the SEC. UGA is 3-0 against it, ALA is 3-0. 2026 standings through 2026-10-10.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 10, 2026 at 8:14 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, fanatics, betmgm, betrivers, caesars.
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- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
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