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NCAAF · Sat, Oct 3 · 12:45 PM

Vanderbilt Commodores at Georgia Bulldogs

O/U 49.5 · SPREAD Georgia Bulldogs -26.5

GARY'S PICK
Vanderbilt +24.5
NCAAF@ Georgia· -104

Vanderbilt
+24.5

-104 · CASHED · VAN 14 · UGA 38

Georgia

The pick & result

Published pick
Vanderbilt Commodores +24.5 -104
Published odds
-104
Result
Won
Final score
14-38

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 57 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 27 4:03 PM
Close
Oct 3 12:40 PM
Move
SPREADGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -25.5 (-110)+1
TOTAL53.5 (-108)50.5 (-110)−3
MONEYLINEGeorgia Bulldogs -3000Georgia Bulldogs -3000Holds
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 27 4:03 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-112)53.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1550
Sep 27 5:03 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-105)53.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1550
Sep 27 6:03 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-112)52.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1600
Sep 27 8:05 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-105)52.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1550
Sep 27 9:05 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-110)52.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1550
Sep 27 11:05 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-110)52.5 (-102)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1500
Sep 28 12:05 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-110)52.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1550
Sep 28 8:01 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-110)52.5 (-102)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1500
Sep 28 1:46 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-105)52.5 (-102)Georgia Bulldogs -2500 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1450
Sep 28 3:17 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-105)51.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -2500 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1400
Sep 28 6:18 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24 (-110)50.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -2500 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1350
Sep 29 6:00 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -24 (-110)50.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -2500 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1400
Sep 29 6:30 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -24 (-110)50.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -2500 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1450
Sep 29 7:30 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -24 (-110)50.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -2500 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1400
Sep 29 8:30 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -24 (-108)50.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -2500 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1400
Sep 29 12:03 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24 (-110)50.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -2500 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1450
Sep 29 3:04 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24 (-110)50.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -2500 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1400
Sep 29 11:09 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24 (-110)50.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -2500 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1450
Sep 30 12:09 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -24 (-110)50.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -2500 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1400
Sep 30 6:00 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -24 (-110)50.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -2500 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1450
Sep 30 9:31 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -24 (-110)50.5 (-118)Georgia Bulldogs -2500 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1400
Sep 30 10:31 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -24 (-110)50.5 (-120)Georgia Bulldogs -2500 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1350
Sep 30 11:32 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -24 (-110)51.5 (-102)Georgia Bulldogs -2500 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1400
Sep 30 12:34 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24 (-110)51.5 (-102)Georgia Bulldogs -2500 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1350
Sep 30 1:34 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24 (-110)51.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -2500 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1400
Sep 30 8:35 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-118)50.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1550
Sep 30 9:05 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)50.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1550
Sep 30 10:05 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)50.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1500
Oct 1 10:31 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)50.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1550
Oct 1 4:04 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)50.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1550
Oct 1 4:34 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)50.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1550
Oct 1 5:04 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-108)50.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1500
Oct 1 5:35 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)50.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1550
Oct 1 8:06 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-108)50.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1500
Oct 1 8:36 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)50.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1550
Oct 2 12:37 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-108)50.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1500
Oct 2 6:00 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)50.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1500
Oct 2 6:30 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)50.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1550
Oct 2 9:00 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)50.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1550
Oct 2 5:21 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)50.5 (-118)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1550
Oct 2 7:44 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)50.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1550
Oct 3 6:00 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-108)50.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1500
Oct 3 7:01 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)50.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1500
Oct 3 8:01 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)50.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1550
Oct 3 8:31 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)50.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1550
Oct 3 9:28 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)50.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1500
Oct 3 9:38 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)50.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1600
Oct 3 10:48 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-118)50.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1600
Oct 3 11:09 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)50.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1500
Oct 3 11:19 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)50.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1550
Oct 3 11:29 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-108)50.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1500
Oct 3 11:39 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-108)50.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1550
Oct 3 11:49 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25.5 (-118)49.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1600
Oct 3 11:59 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25.5 (-118)49.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1700
Oct 3 12:09 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25.5 (-118)50.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1650
Oct 3 12:19 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25.5 (-110)49.5 (-118)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1700
Oct 3 12:29 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25.5 (-110)50.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1700
CLOSEOct 3 12:40 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25.5 (-110)50.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Vanderbilt Commodores +1700

The read

It's homecoming in Athens, with storms in the forecast over Sanford Stadium, and No. 2 Georgia hosts Vanderbilt one week before a trip to Tuscaloosa.

Georgia is the better football team, and the matchup up front leans their way. Vanderbilt is without two interior defensive linemen, Aaron Bryant and Nikhil Jefferson, plus linebacker Jamison Curtis and cornerback Jaylin Lackey. They face a Georgia run game that does its damage in the open field. On the other side, Vanderbilt's running backs managed 2.8 yards a carry at Auburn, and the Commodores still haven't had a run longer than 20 yards this season. I accept all of that.

My ticket is about 24.5 points over four quarters, and Georgia's own season shows where its margins come from. Against Oklahoma, the best team on the schedule, Georgia led 28-0 at the half and played the second half to a 13-13 draw. Georgia turned it over twice after the break, Gunner Stockton threw a first interception of the season, and Ryan Puglisi finished the game. Smart called that half really sloppy. At Arkansas it was 21-3 at halftime and 24-14 after. Georgia builds the lead early and then the backups play. With Alabama next, Smart has already said Georgia will lean on its running back depth this week. I expect this second half to look like the last two.

Vanderbilt has played four games and hasn't lost one by more than six. The Commodores won the second half in all four: 12-7 at Auburn, 28-14 against NC State, 21-9 against Delaware and 13-0 against Austin Peay. The defense allows a 35.0% success rate and 2.905 points per scoring opportunity, so plenty of drives that reach its side of the field end in field goals. Clark Lea's plan fits this spot: wall off the run, force long third downs and take away explosive runs and deep play-action throws.

Then there's the weather. The National Weather Service has showers and possible thunderstorms most likely from 2 to 4 p.m., the middle of a 12:45 kickoff. The total has slid from 54.5 to 50.5 this week. A wet game, possibly interrupted, with fewer clean possessions makes a four-score margin harder to build and harder to hold.

The risk is plain. Vanderbilt scored 15 on the road at Auburn and has to find points against a Georgia front that stuffs 21.6% of runs. Jared Curtis has to keep the chains moving with Junior Sherrill. I'll take the cheaper side at -104: more than three scores with a team that keeps games close and finishes strong, against a favorite with a bigger date next Saturday.

Injuries noted

Vanderbilt Commodores: Jaylin Lackey (out) — Cornerback ruled out against Georgia; condition undisclosed.; Jamison Curtis (out) — Linebacker ruled out against Georgia; condition undisclosed.; Aaron Bryant (out) — Defensive lineman ruled out against Georgia; condition unspecified in the cited game report.; Nikhil Jefferson (out) — Defensive lineman ruled out against Georgia; condition undisclosed.; Jared Curtis (game-time decision) — Freshman starting quarterback has an undisclosed injury. Limited in practice all week; completed Friday's walkthrough without issue. Final participation decision follows a pregame evaluation.; Miles Capers (probable) — Edge defender listed probable against Georgia; leg injury reported.; Lyndon Cooper (probable) — Offensive lineman listed probable against Georgia; condition unspecified.; Clinton Azubuike (probable) — Offensive lineman listed probable against Georgia; condition unspecified.

Georgia Bulldogs: Amaris Williams (out) — Outside linebacker ruled out against Vanderbilt; knee injury reported.; Tyriq Green (out) — Safety ruled out against Vanderbilt; leg injury reported.; Marcus Harrison (out) — Offensive lineman ruled out against Vanderbilt; condition undisclosed.; Nate Frazier (questionable) — Running back remains questionable in October 3 reporting; ribs injury reported.; Isiah Canion (questionable) — Wide receiver remains questionable in October 3 reporting; leg injury reported.; Chase Linton (probable) — Outside linebacker upgraded from questionable to probable in October 3 reporting; earlier reporting identifies a leg injury.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Jared Curtis is VAN's projected starter

    7.61 Y/A

    Jared Curtis is VAN's projected starting quarterback. Lea identifies Curtis as Vanderbilt's starting quarterback. October 2 reporting attributed to ESPN's Pete Thamel says he will attempt to play, with availability decided after a pregame evaluation. His October 3 start remains contingent. 2026 line: 746 passing yards, 64.3% completions, 7.61 yards per attempt, 4-3 TD-INT over 4 games.

  • Gunner Stockton is UGA's projected starter

    10.77 Y/A

    Gunner Stockton is UGA's projected starting quarterback. Georgia's September 28 game preview establishes Stockton as the incumbent starter and Ryan Puglisi as his first backup. A final October 3 starting lineup was not verified. 2026 line: 754 passing yards, 74.3% completions, 10.77 yards per attempt, 10-1 TD-INT over 4 games.

TRENCHES

  • UGA: 50.3 rushing yards allowed per game to VAN's 116.3

    66 YPG

    Georgia allows 50.3 rushing yards a game over four games, and Vanderbilt allows 116.3 over four. Georgia's front shuts down the run, and Vanderbilt's is roughly average. The sheet does not say who Georgia played, so some of that could be schedule, but 50.3 a game is a strong mark. At home, Georgia's run defense could push Vanderbilt into throwing, which matters for Vanderbilt's rushing props and how the game script plays out.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • UGA: 54.8 points per game to VAN's 28.3

    26.5 PPG

    Georgia is scoring 54.8 a game through 4 games, a big jump from 32.1 last season, so expect that to come down. Vanderbilt is at 28.3, below its 38.5 from last season. The gap is real in direction, but Georgia's scoring pace is the number most likely to move toward its usual level.

  • VAN: 31:33 time of possession per game to UGA's 20:16

    11:17 TOP

    Vanderbilt holds the ball over 11 minutes longer per game than Georgia this season, and its 31:33 matches its 31:18 from last season. Georgia's 20:16 is a sharp break from its 33:53 last season, which fits an offense scoring quickly through 4 games. Vanderbilt wants long drives to shorten the game, and a bettor should weigh how well that style holds up against a Georgia offense that doesn't need the clock.

  • UGA: 13.3 points allowed per game to VAN's 21.8

    8.5 PPG

    VAN is at 21.8 points allowed per game over 4 games; UGA is at 13.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 2. Last season VAN was at 22.8 over 13 games and UGA at 17.6 over 14 games.

TURNOVERS

  • UGA: 2.25 takeaways per game to VAN's 1.25

    1 TO

    Georgia's defense is taking the ball away more than twice a game, compared with about once for Vanderbilt. Turnovers come in bunches, so four games is not enough to say this rate sticks. At home, Georgia's extra possessions add to an existing edge, but the size of that edge should be expected to shrink.

MISMATCH

  • VAN: 31:33 of possession a game to UGA's 20:16

    31:33 VS 20:16

    Vanderbilt is holding the ball 31:33 a game over 4 games, right in line with 31:18 last season, while Georgia has dropped to 20:16 from 33:53 last season. Vandy's number looks like a stable style, and Georgia's drop is a big swing that may reflect quick scores as much as trouble. Georgia at home can live with less possession if it is scoring fast, so watch whether Vandy turns long drives into points.

REPLACEMENT

  • Jamison Curtis (LB) is out for VAN

    OUT

    Linebacker ruled out against Georgia; condition undisclosed. 5 things: Vanderbilt defensive ‘wall’ plans to stop Georgia run game (2026-10-02)

  • Jaylin Lackey (CB) is out for VAN

    OUT

    Cornerback ruled out against Georgia; condition undisclosed. 5 things: Vanderbilt defensive ‘wall’ plans to stop Georgia run game (2026-10-02) SEC Availability Report | Latest on Georgia's Nate Frazier, Isiah Canion for Vanderbilt — Marc Weiszer, Athens Banner-Herald (2026-10-01)

  • Aaron Bryant (DL) is out for VAN

    OUT

    Defensive lineman ruled out against Georgia; condition unspecified in the cited game report. 5 things: Vanderbilt defensive ‘wall’ plans to stop Georgia run game (2026-10-02)

  • Nikhil Jefferson (DL) is out for VAN

    OUT

    Defensive lineman ruled out against Georgia; condition undisclosed. 5 things: Vanderbilt defensive ‘wall’ plans to stop Georgia run game (2026-10-02) SEC Availability Report | Latest on Georgia's Nate Frazier, Isiah Canion for Vanderbilt — Marc Weiszer, Athens Banner-Herald (2026-10-01)

  • Amaris Williams (LB) is out for UGA

    OUT

    Outside linebacker ruled out against Vanderbilt; knee injury reported. 5 things: Vanderbilt defensive ‘wall’ plans to stop Georgia run game (2026-10-02) SEC Availability Report | Latest on Georgia's Nate Frazier, Isiah Canion for Vanderbilt — Marc Weiszer, Athens Banner-Herald (2026-10-01)

  • Tyriq Green (S) is out for UGA

    OUT

    Safety ruled out against Vanderbilt; leg injury reported. 5 things: Vanderbilt defensive ‘wall’ plans to stop Georgia run game (2026-10-02) SEC Availability Report | Latest on Georgia's Nate Frazier, Isiah Canion for Vanderbilt — Marc Weiszer, Athens Banner-Herald (2026-10-01)

  • Marcus Harrison (OL) is out for UGA

    OUT

    Offensive lineman ruled out against Vanderbilt; condition undisclosed. 5 things: Vanderbilt defensive ‘wall’ plans to stop Georgia run game (2026-10-02) SEC Availability Report | Latest on Georgia's Nate Frazier, Isiah Canion for Vanderbilt — Marc Weiszer, Athens Banner-Herald (2026-10-01)

SITUATIONAL

  • VAN: 3.5 fourth-down attempts per game to UGA's 0.75

    2.75 ATT/G

    VAN is at 3.5 fourth-down attempts per game over 4 games; UGA is at 0.75 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 2. Last season VAN was at 1.38 over 13 games and UGA at 1.43 over 14 games.

TEAM RECORD

  • SEC game: VAN 0-1, UGA 2-0 in conference

    CONFERENCE

    These two share the SEC. VAN is 0-1 against it, UGA is 2-0. 2026 standings through 2026-10-03.

AFTER GARY

  • VAN +24.5 → +26.5

    NOW +2

    Gary's number was 24.5; the same book now shows 26.5.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 3, 2026 at 8:09 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, fanatics, betmgm, betrivers, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

1
  • GARY'S PICK
    SEDRICK ALEXANDERANYTIME TOUCHDOWN OVER 0.5
    NCAAFVanderbilt· +165

    Sedrick Alexander
    Anytime Touchdown over 0.5

    +165 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

    Vanderbilt

    I already have Vanderbilt +24.5 because I think the Commodores keep this within reach and score enough late to stay inside the number. If that's how the afternoon goes, someone in black and gold is finding the end zone, and the most likely name is Sedrick Alexander.

    Alexander has four touchdowns in four games, three on the ground and one through the air. That second part matters. On 37 carries he's averaging about 4.5 yards, and he's caught seven balls for 47 yards, so he's on the field in more than one role. When Vanderbilt gets inside the 10, he's the one Clark Lea trusts to finish. Jared Curtis has two rushing touchdowns of his own and is the obvious vulture risk, but Curtis is also the quarterback trying to protect the ball against a ranked defense. The handoff and the check-down both still go to Alexander.

    The game script helps too. Showers and possible thunderstorms are forecast for the middle of the game. That means fewer clean deep shots and more drives that stall in the red zone, where running backs get their touches. Georgia's second halves have been loose. Against Oklahoma they turned it over twice after the break and let a 28-0 game go 13-13 the rest of the way. With Alabama next week and backups likely to play, the short fields Vanderbilt gets late in this game are the kind that become goal-line carries.

    The risk is real. Georgia stuffs 21.6% of runs, Vanderbilt's backs averaged 2.8 yards a carry at Auburn, and the Commodores haven't had a run longer than 20 yards all season. Alexander isn't scoring from 40 out. He needs Vanderbilt to put together one or two sustained drives, and his receiving work gives him a second way to finish one.

    At +165 the price implies under 38%. With Alexander involved in roughly four of Vanderbilt's touchdowns so far and my expectation that they score more than once today, I have it a few points higher. I'll take Alexander to score.

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