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NCAAF · Sat, Sep 19 · 12:00 PM

Georgia Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks

O/U 54.5 · SPREAD Georgia Bulldogs -34.5

GARY'S PICK
Georgia -24.5
NCAAF@ Arkansas· -115

Georgia
-24.5

-115 · CASHED · UGA 45 · ARK 17

Arkansas

The pick & result

Published pick
Georgia Bulldogs -24.5 -115
Published odds
-115
Result
Won
Final score
45-17

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 79 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 13 3:46 PM
Close
Sep 19 11:50 AM
Move
SPREADGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -25 (-108)+½
TOTAL53.5 (-108)54.5 (-110)+1
MONEYLINEGeorgia Bulldogs -3000Georgia Bulldogs -3000Holds
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 13 3:46 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-112)53.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1700
Sep 13 4:46 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-105)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1650
Sep 13 5:47 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-108)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1500
Sep 13 6:46 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-110)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 13 7:46 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-110)54.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 13 11:16 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-112)54.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 14 8:01 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-112)54.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 14 9:00 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-105)54.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 14 11:02 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-105)54.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1600
Sep 14 12:03 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-108)54.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 14 1:03 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-108)54.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 14 7:33 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25.5 (-108)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1700
Sep 15 9:31 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25.5 (-108)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 15 10:01 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-112)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 15 12:01 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 15 5:01 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1500
Sep 15 6:01 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 15 7:01 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1500
Sep 15 8:01 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 15 9:02 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 15 11:02 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1500
Sep 16 7:01 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 16 1:31 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1500
Sep 16 2:31 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 16 3:32 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1500
Sep 16 7:37 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 16 9:08 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1500
Sep 16 9:38 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 16 10:38 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-110)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1500
Sep 16 11:08 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-110)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -2500 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1400
Sep 16 11:38 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-110)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -2500 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1450
Sep 17 12:08 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-110)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1500
Sep 17 10:01 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-110)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -2500 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1450
Sep 17 10:31 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-110)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 17 11:01 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-110)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1500
Sep 17 11:31 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-110)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 17 12:02 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-110)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1500
Sep 17 1:02 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-110)54.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 17 1:32 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-110)54.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1500
Sep 17 2:02 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-110)54.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 17 2:32 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-112)54.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 17 3:32 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-118)54.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 17 5:21 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)54.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 17 5:31 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-118)54.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 17 5:41 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)54.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 17 6:01 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-118)54.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 17 6:51 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-108)54.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 17 10:01 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)54.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 17 10:31 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-108)54.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 18 12:31 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-118)54.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -2500 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1400
Sep 18 5:01 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-118)54.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1500
Sep 18 6:00 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-108)54.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 18 6:30 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-108)54.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 18 7:00 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-108)54.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 18 7:30 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-108)54.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 18 10:01 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-108)54.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 18 11:01 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-118)54.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 18 2:33 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-118)54.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1500
Sep 18 3:03 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-118)54.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 18 6:33 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-120)54.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 18 6:53 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-112)54.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 18 7:34 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-110)54.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 18 10:32 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-110)54.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1500
Sep 18 11:02 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-110)54.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 19 7:00 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-110)54.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1500
Sep 19 7:15 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-110)54.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1500
Sep 19 8:30 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-110)54.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1500
Sep 19 8:40 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-110)54.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 19 9:52 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-110)54.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1500
Sep 19 10:02 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-120)54.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1500
Sep 19 10:22 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-118)54.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 19 10:32 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)54.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1500
Sep 19 10:42 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5 (-120)54.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1500
Sep 19 10:53 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-108)54.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1500
Sep 19 11:00 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-108)54.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 19 11:15 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-108)54.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1500
Sep 19 11:19 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-110)54.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1500
Sep 19 11:30 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-108)54.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550
Sep 19 11:40 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-108)54.5 (-110)—
CLOSESep 19 11:50 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -25 (-108)54.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -3000 · Arkansas Razorbacks +1550

The read

Conference play opens in Fayetteville, with Arkansas back home after its trip to Utah and No. 2 Georgia taking its first road test of the season. The Bulldogs’ explosive opening stretch now meets an SEC setting. [Georgia’s game notes](https://georgiadogs.com/news/2026/9/14/football-georgia-opens-sec-play-at-arkansas)

I’m laying the points because I see a matchup that can produce sustained separation on both sides of the ball. Georgia’s offensive success rate is 60.2%, while Arkansas has allowed opponents to succeed on 40.7% of their plays. Gunner Stockton has thrown eight touchdowns without an interception. His production against Western Kentucky came early: five touchdown passes in the first half, playing only the first five possessions. That matters when assessing whether Georgia can establish the kind of lead this ticket requires. [Georgia’s quarterback breakdown](https://georgiadogs.com/news/2026/9/14/football-georgia-opens-sec-play-at-arkansas)

The finishing matchup is particularly persuasive. Georgia has averaged 6.067 points per scoring opportunity, defined as a drive reaching the opponent’s 40. Arkansas has allowed 5.091. My expectation is that Georgia can turn sustained possessions into touchdowns often enough to pull away, without needing defensive scores or a string of takeaways.

Arkansas has to contribute offensively to keep this within the number, and that is the harder case to make. Its rushing offense has averaged 104.5 yards per game; Braylen Russell and Sutton Smith have averaged 2.8 and 2.2 yards per carry, respectively. Georgia has allowed an offensive success rate of 28.6%. I expect that matchup to put too much responsibility on Arkansas’s passing game. Chris Marshall’s 12 catches provide a demonstrated receiving outlet, but Arkansas’s 3.154 points per scoring opportunity underline the difficulty it has had turning movement into points.

The strongest objection is the competition behind Georgia’s opening numbers: Tennessee State and Western Kentucky do not establish what this offense will do on an SEC road trip. Arkansas can cover by disrupting that rhythm and forcing field goals. That is a credible risk. But I think Georgia’s combination of drive efficiency and finishing, against an Arkansas offense struggling to run and capitalize on opportunities, makes laying this spread the stronger ticket.

Injuries noted

Georgia Bulldogs: Chase Linton (out) — Outside linebacker listed out on the SEC availability report; Georgia's game notes state he missed the first two games because of injury.; Amaris Williams (out) — Outside linebacker/edge transfer is out with a knee injury according to Georgia's current game notes.; Dante Dowdell (out) — Running back transfer is listed by Georgia's current game notes as out because of injury.

Arkansas Razorbacks: Hutson Hendrix (out) — Tight end initially listed questionable on the Wednesday SEC report and subsequently escalated to out.; Brandon Ford (doubtful) — Defensive back initially listed questionable on the Wednesday SEC report and subsequently downgraded to doubtful.; J'Lynn Allen (out for season) — Defensive lineman is a season-long absence with an undisclosed injury; he is not part of the weekly SEC-report additions.; Connor Smith (out for season) — Punter is a season-long absence after an ACL injury; he is not part of the weekly SEC-report additions.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Gunner Stockton is UGA's confirmed starter

    13.63 Y/A

    Gunner Stockton is UGA's confirmed starting quarterback. Georgia's current game notes identify Stockton as its returning All-SEC quarterback and document him starting both 2026 games; he remains the established starter for Arkansas. 2026 line: 436 passing yards, 87.5% completions, 13.63 yards per attempt, 8-0 TD-INT over 2 games.

  • KJ Jackson is ARK's confirmed starter

    5.88 Y/A

    KJ Jackson is ARK's confirmed starting quarterback. Offensive coordinator Tim Cramsey called Jackson Arkansas' first-year starter and said, 'We have the guy (Jackson),' while discussing preparations for Georgia. 2026 line: 406 passing yards, 55.1% completions, 5.88 yards per attempt, 3-2 TD-INT over 2 games.

TRENCHES

  • UGA is +148.5 rush yards per game

    148.5 YPG

    UGA is at 253 rushing yards per game over 2 games; ARK is at 104.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • UGA's defense gives up 17 fewer points per game

    17 PPG

    UGA is at 11.5 points allowed per game over 2 games; ARK is at 28.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.

  • UGA is scoring +46 points per game

    46 PPG

    UGA is at 66.5 points per game over 2 games; ARK is at 20.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.

  • UGA @ ARK carries a 71.5 market total

    71.5

    The current draftkings total is 71.5, 16 points above the 55.5 median across 45 games with posted totals on this slate.

  • ARK holds the ball 8:01 longer per game

    8:01 TOP

    UGA is at 28:41 time of possession per game over 2 games; ARK is at 36:41 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.

TURNOVERS

  • UGA commits 1 fewer turnovers per game

    1 TO

    UGA is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; ARK is at 2 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.

  • UGA's defense takes the ball away 1 more time per game

    1 TO

    UGA is at 2 takeaways per game over 2 games; ARK is at 1 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-18.

MISMATCH

  • UGA's ground game against ARK's — 253 rush yards a game to 104.5

    253 VS 104.5

    The widest gap on this matchup's tape: rush ypg — UGA 253, ARK 104.5, over 2 and 2 game samples.

COVERAGE

  • UGA's secondary gives up 100 fewer passing yards per game

    100 YPG

    UGA is at 107 passing yards allowed per game over 2 games; ARK is at 207 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-18.

REPLACEMENT

  • Maddox Lassiter (TE) is out for the season for ARK

    OUT FOR SEASON

    Tight end with an upper-body injury; the current availability reporting lists him out, and reporting states he was previously ruled out for the season. Arkansas football injury report ahead of Georgia game (2026-09-17)

  • J'Lynn Allen (DL) is out for the season for ARK

    OUT FOR SEASON

    Defensive lineman is a season-long absence with an undisclosed injury; he is not part of the weekly SEC-report additions. Arkansas Razorbacks Roster 2026 — full player ledger (2026-09-18)

  • Connor Smith (P) is out for the season for ARK

    OUT FOR SEASON

    Punter is a season-long absence after an ACL injury; he is not part of the weekly SEC-report additions. Arkansas Razorbacks Roster 2026 — full player ledger (2026-09-18)

  • Justice Fitzpatrick (DB) is out for UGA

    OUT

    Defensive back listed out on the SEC availability report. Arkansas football injury report ahead of Georgia game (2026-09-17)

  • Chase Linton (LB) is out for UGA

    OUT

    Outside linebacker listed out on the SEC availability report; Georgia's game notes state he missed the first two games because of injury. Georgia Opens SEC Play At Arkansas (2026-09-14) Arkansas football injury report ahead of Georgia game (2026-09-17)

  • Amaris Williams (LB) is out for UGA

    OUT

    Outside linebacker/edge transfer is out with a knee injury according to Georgia's current game notes. Georgia Opens SEC Play At Arkansas (2026-09-14)

  • Hutson Hendrix (TE) is out for ARK

    OUT

    Tight end initially listed questionable on the Wednesday SEC report and subsequently escalated to out. Arkansas football injury report ahead of Georgia game (2026-09-17) Arkansas Razorbacks Roster 2026 — full player ledger (2026-09-18)

  • Dante Dowdell (RB) is out for UGA

    OUT

    Running back transfer is listed by Georgia's current game notes as out because of injury. Georgia Opens SEC Play At Arkansas (2026-09-14)

  • Tyriq Green (S) is out for UGA

    OUT

    Safety listed out on the SEC availability report. Arkansas football injury report ahead of Georgia game (2026-09-17)

SITUATIONAL

  • ARK's staff goes for it 2.5 more times per game on fourth down

    2.5 ATT/G

    UGA is at 0.5 fourth-down attempts per game over 2 games; ARK is at 3 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 19, 2026 at 7:42 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, betmgm, fanatics, betrivers, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

1
  • GARY'S PICK
    GUNNER STOCKTONPASSING TOUCHDOWNS OVER 2.5
    NCAAFGeorgia· +145

    Gunner Stockton
    Passing Touchdowns over 2.5

    +145 · LOST · ACTUAL 1

    Georgia

    I’m taking Stockton over 2.5 passing touchdowns at plus money. Georgia’s 60.2% offensive success rate and Arkansas’s 5.091 points allowed per scoring opportunity create a path to several short, efficient touchdown drives. Stockton has already thrown eight touchdowns without an interception, including five in one half against Western Kentucky, so Georgia has shown a willingness to let him finish possessions through the air even when controlling the game.

    The risk is the same game script that supports Georgia -24.5: a large lead could shift touches toward the running backs and shorten Stockton’s afternoon. But I expect Arkansas to struggle enough against the run and on early downs that Georgia will repeatedly operate from favorable situations. At +145, I think the probability of Stockton throwing at least three scores is better than the price implies.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

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