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NCAAF · Sat, Oct 31 · 3:30 PM

Florida Gators at Georgia Bulldogs

O/U 56.5 · SPREAD Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

GARY'S PICK
Florida +11.5
NCAAF@ Georgia· -110

Florida
+11.5

-110 · LOST · FLA 8 · UGA 27

Georgia

The pick & result

Published pick
Florida Gators +11.5 -110
Published odds
-110
Result
Lost
Final score
8-27

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 61 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 25 12:31 PM
Close
Sat 3:27 PM
Move
SPREADGeorgia Bulldogs -10 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-108)+1½
TOTAL56.5 (-110)56.5 (-110)Price
MONEYLINEGeorgia Bulldogs -400Georgia Bulldogs -450−50
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 25 12:31 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -10 (-108)56.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -400 · Florida Gators +320
Oct 25 1:31 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -10.5 (-108)56.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -400 · Florida Gators +310
Oct 25 3:31 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -11 (-108)56.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340
Oct 25 8:31 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -11 (-108)55.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +360
Oct 25 9:31 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -11 (-108)56.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350
Oct 25 10:31 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -10.5 (-110)56.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +360
Oct 26 6:00 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -10.5 (-110)55.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350
Oct 26 8:31 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -10.5 (-110)56.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +360
Oct 26 10:31 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -10.5 (-110)56.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340
Oct 26 12:32 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -11 (-108)56.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340
Oct 26 1:32 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -10.5 (-110)56.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340
Oct 26 2:33 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -10.5 (-110)55.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340
Oct 26 3:33 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-110)55.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +360
Oct 26 7:03 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-110)55.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350
Oct 26 8:03 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-110)55.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +360
Oct 27 11:31 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-110)55.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350
Oct 28 8:19 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-118)55.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +360
Oct 28 8:49 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -12 (-110)54.5 (-118)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350
Thu 7:30 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-118)55.5 (-102)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350
Thu 8:00 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-118)54.5 (-118)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350
Thu 8:30 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -12 (-110)55.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350
Thu 9:31 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -12 (-110)54.5 (-118)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350
Thu 10:01 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -12.5 (-112)55.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -475 · Florida Gators +375
Thu 10:23 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -12 (-110)55.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350
Thu 11:02 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -12 (-110)55.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350
Thu 11:32 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -12 (-110)55.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +360
Thu 12:18 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -12 (-110)54.5 (-118)Georgia Bulldogs -475 · Florida Gators +375
Thu 1:02 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -12.5 (-112)54.5 (-118)Georgia Bulldogs -475 · Florida Gators +360
Thu 3:59 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -12 (-110)55.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -475 · Florida Gators +375
Thu 4:04 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -12 (-110)55.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -475 · Florida Gators +360
Thu 4:36 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -12 (-110)55.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +360
Thu 5:06 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -12 (-110)55.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -475 · Florida Gators +375
Thu 5:36 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -12 (-110)56.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -475 · Florida Gators +375
Fri 12:37 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-118)56.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -475 · Florida Gators +375
Fri 1:08 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-118)56.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350
Fri 10:01 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-118)56.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +360
Fri 10:31 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-110)56.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350
Fri 11:01 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-110)56.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340
Fri 12:01 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-110)56.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350
Fri 12:55 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-110)56.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340
Fri 4:30 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-118)56.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340
Fri 4:50 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -12 (-108)56.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340
Fri 5:00 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-118)56.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340
Fri 5:20 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -12 (-108)56.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340
Fri 5:51 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-118)56.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340
Fri 6:11 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -12 (-108)56.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340
Fri 6:21 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-118)56.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340
Sat 4:45 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-110)56.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350
Sat 7:30 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-110)56.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350
Sat 9:00 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-110)56.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340
Sat 11:23 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -12 (-108)56.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340
Sat 11:33 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-110)56.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340
Sat 12:34 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-118)56.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350
Sat 1:04 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -12 (-108)56.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350
Sat 1:25 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-118)56.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350
Sat 1:55 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -12 (-108)56.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -475 · Florida Gators +375
Sat 2:05 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -12 (-108)56.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -475 · Florida Gators +360
Sat 2:15 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -12.5 (-112)56.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -475 · Florida Gators +375
Sat 2:25 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-108)56.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +360
Sat 2:46 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-108)55.5 (-120)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +360
Sat 3:17 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-108)56.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350
CLOSESat 3:27 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-108)56.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +360

The read

For the first time ever, Florida and Georgia meet in Atlanta, under the roof at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, about 60 miles from Athens. Georgia is laying 11.5. I'm taking the points.

Georgia is the better team, but its last two games against real SEC opponents were coin flips: a 20-17 win at Alabama and a 27-24 home loss to Auburn. Three of the four interceptions on Gunner Stockton's season line came in those two games, and Stockton is coming off a shoulder stinger.

The bigger crack is the run defense. Georgia held Vanderbilt to 92 rushing yards, Oklahoma to 79 and Arkansas to 45. Then it gave up 190 to Alabama and 209 to Auburn. That's where Florida wants to play. Jadan Baugh ran for 162 at Auburn and 142 against Ole Miss. Florida held the ball 39:16, 36:59 and 38:11 in its three SEC wins. Long drives mean fewer possessions, and fewer possessions make double digits hard to cover.

Florida's front can get home too. It had 7 sacks at Auburn, then 5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss at Texas, where Texas went 2-of-10 on third down. Aaron Philo is expected back at quarterback. Florida won at Texas without a single play of 20+ yards. Philo went 21-of-28 for 227 against South Carolina, the game where the shoulder injury happened.

The case against is real. Georgia outgained Alabama 459-375 and Auburn 454-383. Turnovers (4 given, 1 taken) and Peyton Woodring going 3-of-5 on field goals kept those games close, and that kind of luck evens out. Florida's floor is ugly as well: 17-45 at Missouri on 68 rushing yards, and 19-38 against South Carolina with 3 giveaways. If Georgia stuffs Baugh early, this gets away fast. Philo's start also rests on sourced reports, not the team, and receivers Bailey Stockton and Vernell Brown III are both questionable.

Bottom line: I make Georgia a single-digit favorite, not a double-digit one. Florida +11.5.

Injuries noted

Florida Gators: Vernell Brown III (questionable) — WR #1 listed Questionable on the SEC Update 2 report; Bailey Stockton (questionable) — WR #3 listed Questionable on the SEC Update 2 report; Tramell Jones Jr. (probable) — QB #9 listed Probable on the SEC Update 2 report; Aaron Philo (probable) — QB #12 listed Probable on the SEC Update 2 report; Duke Clark (out) — RB #20 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Jaden Robinson (out) — ILB #29 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report

Georgia Bulldogs: Thomas Blackshear (out) — WR #2 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; KJ Bolden (questionable) — DB #4 listed Questionable on the SEC Update 2 report; Chauncey Bowens (out) — RB #5 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Isiah Canion (questionable) — WR #6 listed Questionable on the SEC Update 2 report; Amaris Williams (out) — OLB #17 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Tyriq Green (out) — S #23 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Aaron Philo is FLA's projected starter

    9.00 Y/A

    Aaron Philo is FLA's projected starting quarterback. ESPN's Pete Thamel reported, citing anonymous sources, that Florida will start junior Aaron Philo against Georgia (ClutchPoints/Yahoo, Oct 30; OnlyGators, Oct 30). There is no official team announcement. On Monday Sumrall said he would not name a starter and that he expected both Philo and Tramell Jones Jr. to be available. Philo hurt his shoulder against South Carolina on Oct 10 and missed the Oct 17 win over Texas. He was listed questionable on Florida's Oct 29 report and upgraded to probable on Friday's SEC availability report. OnlyGators reported that he took most first-team snaps in practice this week. ClutchPoints/Yahoo reported that both QBs took first-team reps. 2026 line: 1341 passing yards, 70.5% completions, 9.00 yards per attempt, 9-3 TD-INT over 6 games.

  • Gunner Stockton is UGA's projected starter

    9.94 Y/A

    Gunner Stockton is UGA's projected starting quarterback. Previews published Oct 29–30 cover senior Gunner Stockton as Georgia's quarterback for this game (1,570 passing yards, 16 TD, 4 INT). None of the checked sources has Georgia, Kirby Smart or a Georgia depth chart confirming him as this week's starter. He is not on Georgia's Oct 30 SEC availability report. No report on his practice participation this week was found. For the shoulder stinger from his last game, see context. 2026 line: 1570 passing yards, 74.1% completions, 9.94 yards per attempt, 16-4 TD-INT over 7 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • FLA: 33:07 time of possession per game to UGA's 25:24

    7:43 TOP

    Florida holds the ball over 33 minutes a game and Georgia sits near 25, a flip from last season when Georgia was at 33:53 and Florida at 29:47. A swing that big in seven games says Georgia is scoring faster or playing more short possessions this year. Expect Florida to try to shorten the game and keep Georgia's offense on the sideline, which tends to mean fewer total possessions for both sides.

  • UGA: 15.9 points allowed per game to FLA's 28.3

    12.4 PPG

    Georgia gives up about two touchdowns a game while Florida's defense allows nearly four, so Georgia is the side more likely to keep this one in a scoring range it controls at home. Georgia allowed 17.6 last season, so 15.9 through seven games fits who they have been. Florida's number climbed from 24 last season, which points to a real step back. If Florida needs points to keep pace, the burden falls on an offense facing the tougher defense in this matchup.

MISMATCH

  • UGA: 15.9 points allowed a game to FLA's 28.3

    15.9 VS 28.3

    The widest gap between these two is points allowed a game: FLA's defense allowed 28.3 points a game over 7 games; UGA's defense allowed 15.9 points a game over 7 games this season. Last season FLA was at 24 over 12 games and UGA at 17.6 over 14 games.

COVERAGE

  • UGA: 184.7 passing yards allowed per game to FLA's 255

    70.3 YPG

    Georgia allows 184.7 passing yards a game across 7 games, and Florida gives up 255 across 7. Seven games each is a fair sample, though the sheet doesn't show opponent quality. Florida's pass defense is the clear weak side, which favors Georgia's quarterback finding room at home.

REPLACEMENT

  • Duke Clark (RB) is out for FLA

    OUT

    RB #20 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Jaden Robinson (LB) is out for FLA

    OUT

    ILB #29 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Thomas Blackshear (WR) is out for UGA

    OUT

    WR #2 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Chauncey Bowens (RB) is out for UGA

    OUT

    RB #5 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Amaris Williams (LB) is out for UGA

    OUT

    OLB #17 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Tyriq Green (S) is out for UGA

    OUT

    S #23 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

SITUATIONAL

  • No. 17 Florida at No. 3 Georgia

    #17 VS #3

    Florida is No. 17 in the AP poll at 5-2 (556 points, trend +3). Georgia is No. 3 in the AP poll at 6-1 (1511 points, trend +2).

TEAM RECORD

  • SEC game: FLA 3-2, UGA 4-1 in conference

    CONFERENCE

    These two share the SEC. FLA is 3-2 against it, UGA is 4-1. 2026 standings through 2026-10-31.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 31, 2026 at 8:16 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, fanatics, betrivers, betmgm, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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