Florida Gators at Georgia Bulldogs
O/U 56.5 · SPREAD Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Florida Gators +11.5 -110
- Published odds
- -110
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 8-27
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 61 moves| Market | Opened Oct 25 12:31 PM | Close Sat 3:27 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Georgia Bulldogs -10 (-108) | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-108) | +1½ |
| TOTAL | 56.5 (-110) | 56.5 (-110) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Georgia Bulldogs -400 | Georgia Bulldogs -450 | −50 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 25 12:31 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -10 (-108) | 56.5 (-110) | Georgia Bulldogs -400 · Florida Gators +320 |
| Oct 25 1:31 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -10.5 (-108) | 56.5 (-108) | Georgia Bulldogs -400 · Florida Gators +310 |
| Oct 25 3:31 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -11 (-108) | 56.5 (-105) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340 |
| Oct 25 8:31 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -11 (-108) | 55.5 (-112) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +360 |
| Oct 25 9:31 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -11 (-108) | 56.5 (-105) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350 |
| Oct 25 10:31 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -10.5 (-110) | 56.5 (-108) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +360 |
| Oct 26 6:00 AM | Georgia Bulldogs -10.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-112) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350 |
| Oct 26 8:31 AM | Georgia Bulldogs -10.5 (-110) | 56.5 (-108) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +360 |
| Oct 26 10:31 AM | Georgia Bulldogs -10.5 (-110) | 56.5 (-108) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340 |
| Oct 26 12:32 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -11 (-108) | 56.5 (-105) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340 |
| Oct 26 1:32 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -10.5 (-110) | 56.5 (-105) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340 |
| Oct 26 2:33 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -10.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-112) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340 |
| Oct 26 3:33 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-110) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +360 |
| Oct 26 7:03 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-110) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350 |
| Oct 26 8:03 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-108) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +360 |
| Oct 27 11:31 AM | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-110) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350 |
| Oct 28 8:19 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-118) | 55.5 (-110) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +360 |
| Oct 28 8:49 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -12 (-110) | 54.5 (-118) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350 |
| Thu 7:30 AM | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-118) | 55.5 (-102) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350 |
| Thu 8:00 AM | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-118) | 54.5 (-118) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350 |
| Thu 8:30 AM | Georgia Bulldogs -12 (-110) | 55.5 (-108) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350 |
| Thu 9:31 AM | Georgia Bulldogs -12 (-110) | 54.5 (-118) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350 |
| Thu 10:01 AM | Georgia Bulldogs -12.5 (-112) | 55.5 (-108) | Georgia Bulldogs -475 · Florida Gators +375 |
| Thu 10:23 AM | Georgia Bulldogs -12 (-110) | 55.5 (-105) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350 |
| Thu 11:02 AM | Georgia Bulldogs -12 (-110) | 55.5 (-105) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350 |
| Thu 11:32 AM | Georgia Bulldogs -12 (-110) | 55.5 (-105) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +360 |
| Thu 12:18 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -12 (-110) | 54.5 (-118) | Georgia Bulldogs -475 · Florida Gators +375 |
| Thu 1:02 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -12.5 (-112) | 54.5 (-118) | Georgia Bulldogs -475 · Florida Gators +360 |
| Thu 3:59 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -12 (-110) | 55.5 (-110) | Georgia Bulldogs -475 · Florida Gators +375 |
| Thu 4:04 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -12 (-110) | 55.5 (-110) | Georgia Bulldogs -475 · Florida Gators +360 |
| Thu 4:36 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -12 (-110) | 55.5 (-110) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +360 |
| Thu 5:06 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -12 (-110) | 55.5 (-112) | Georgia Bulldogs -475 · Florida Gators +375 |
| Thu 5:36 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -12 (-110) | 56.5 (-110) | Georgia Bulldogs -475 · Florida Gators +375 |
| Fri 12:37 AM | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-118) | 56.5 (-110) | Georgia Bulldogs -475 · Florida Gators +375 |
| Fri 1:08 AM | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-118) | 56.5 (-110) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350 |
| Fri 10:01 AM | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-118) | 56.5 (-110) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +360 |
| Fri 10:31 AM | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-110) | 56.5 (-110) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350 |
| Fri 11:01 AM | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-110) | 56.5 (-110) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340 |
| Fri 12:01 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-110) | 56.5 (-110) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350 |
| Fri 12:55 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-110) | 56.5 (-108) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340 |
| Fri 4:30 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-118) | 56.5 (-108) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340 |
| Fri 4:50 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -12 (-108) | 56.5 (-108) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340 |
| Fri 5:00 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-118) | 56.5 (-108) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340 |
| Fri 5:20 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -12 (-108) | 56.5 (-108) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340 |
| Fri 5:51 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-118) | 56.5 (-108) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340 |
| Fri 6:11 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -12 (-108) | 56.5 (-108) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340 |
| Fri 6:21 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-118) | 56.5 (-108) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340 |
| Sat 4:45 AM | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-110) | 56.5 (-108) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350 |
| Sat 7:30 AM | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-110) | 56.5 (-110) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350 |
| Sat 9:00 AM | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-110) | 56.5 (-110) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340 |
| Sat 11:23 AM | Georgia Bulldogs -12 (-108) | 56.5 (-110) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340 |
| Sat 11:33 AM | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-110) | 56.5 (-110) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +340 |
| Sat 12:34 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-118) | 56.5 (-110) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350 |
| Sat 1:04 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -12 (-108) | 56.5 (-110) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350 |
| Sat 1:25 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-118) | 56.5 (-110) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350 |
| Sat 1:55 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -12 (-108) | 56.5 (-110) | Georgia Bulldogs -475 · Florida Gators +375 |
| Sat 2:05 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -12 (-108) | 56.5 (-110) | Georgia Bulldogs -475 · Florida Gators +360 |
| Sat 2:15 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -12.5 (-112) | 56.5 (-110) | Georgia Bulldogs -475 · Florida Gators +375 |
| Sat 2:25 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-108) | 56.5 (-105) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +360 |
| Sat 2:46 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-108) | 55.5 (-120) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +360 |
| Sat 3:17 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-108) | 56.5 (-105) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +350 |
| CLOSESat 3:27 PM | Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 (-108) | 56.5 (-110) | Georgia Bulldogs -450 · Florida Gators +360 |
The read
For the first time ever, Florida and Georgia meet in Atlanta, under the roof at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, about 60 miles from Athens. Georgia is laying 11.5. I'm taking the points.
Georgia is the better team, but its last two games against real SEC opponents were coin flips: a 20-17 win at Alabama and a 27-24 home loss to Auburn. Three of the four interceptions on Gunner Stockton's season line came in those two games, and Stockton is coming off a shoulder stinger.
The bigger crack is the run defense. Georgia held Vanderbilt to 92 rushing yards, Oklahoma to 79 and Arkansas to 45. Then it gave up 190 to Alabama and 209 to Auburn. That's where Florida wants to play. Jadan Baugh ran for 162 at Auburn and 142 against Ole Miss. Florida held the ball 39:16, 36:59 and 38:11 in its three SEC wins. Long drives mean fewer possessions, and fewer possessions make double digits hard to cover.
Florida's front can get home too. It had 7 sacks at Auburn, then 5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss at Texas, where Texas went 2-of-10 on third down. Aaron Philo is expected back at quarterback. Florida won at Texas without a single play of 20+ yards. Philo went 21-of-28 for 227 against South Carolina, the game where the shoulder injury happened.
The case against is real. Georgia outgained Alabama 459-375 and Auburn 454-383. Turnovers (4 given, 1 taken) and Peyton Woodring going 3-of-5 on field goals kept those games close, and that kind of luck evens out. Florida's floor is ugly as well: 17-45 at Missouri on 68 rushing yards, and 19-38 against South Carolina with 3 giveaways. If Georgia stuffs Baugh early, this gets away fast. Philo's start also rests on sourced reports, not the team, and receivers Bailey Stockton and Vernell Brown III are both questionable.
Bottom line: I make Georgia a single-digit favorite, not a double-digit one. Florida +11.5.
Injuries noted
Florida Gators: Vernell Brown III (questionable) — WR #1 listed Questionable on the SEC Update 2 report; Bailey Stockton (questionable) — WR #3 listed Questionable on the SEC Update 2 report; Tramell Jones Jr. (probable) — QB #9 listed Probable on the SEC Update 2 report; Aaron Philo (probable) — QB #12 listed Probable on the SEC Update 2 report; Duke Clark (out) — RB #20 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Jaden Robinson (out) — ILB #29 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report
Georgia Bulldogs: Thomas Blackshear (out) — WR #2 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; KJ Bolden (questionable) — DB #4 listed Questionable on the SEC Update 2 report; Chauncey Bowens (out) — RB #5 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Isiah Canion (questionable) — WR #6 listed Questionable on the SEC Update 2 report; Amaris Williams (out) — OLB #17 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Tyriq Green (out) — S #23 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Aaron Philo is FLA's projected starter
9.00 Y/AAaron Philo is FLA's projected starting quarterback. ESPN's Pete Thamel reported, citing anonymous sources, that Florida will start junior Aaron Philo against Georgia (ClutchPoints/Yahoo, Oct 30; OnlyGators, Oct 30). There is no official team announcement. On Monday Sumrall said he would not name a starter and that he expected both Philo and Tramell Jones Jr. to be available. Philo hurt his shoulder against South Carolina on Oct 10 and missed the Oct 17 win over Texas. He was listed questionable on Florida's Oct 29 report and upgraded to probable on Friday's SEC availability report. OnlyGators reported that he took most first-team snaps in practice this week. ClutchPoints/Yahoo reported that both QBs took first-team reps. 2026 line: 1341 passing yards, 70.5% completions, 9.00 yards per attempt, 9-3 TD-INT over 6 games.
Gunner Stockton is UGA's projected starter
9.94 Y/AGunner Stockton is UGA's projected starting quarterback. Previews published Oct 29–30 cover senior Gunner Stockton as Georgia's quarterback for this game (1,570 passing yards, 16 TD, 4 INT). None of the checked sources has Georgia, Kirby Smart or a Georgia depth chart confirming him as this week's starter. He is not on Georgia's Oct 30 SEC availability report. No report on his practice participation this week was found. For the shoulder stinger from his last game, see context. 2026 line: 1570 passing yards, 74.1% completions, 9.94 yards per attempt, 16-4 TD-INT over 7 games.
PACE & SCRIPT
FLA: 33:07 time of possession per game to UGA's 25:24
7:43 TOPFlorida holds the ball over 33 minutes a game and Georgia sits near 25, a flip from last season when Georgia was at 33:53 and Florida at 29:47. A swing that big in seven games says Georgia is scoring faster or playing more short possessions this year. Expect Florida to try to shorten the game and keep Georgia's offense on the sideline, which tends to mean fewer total possessions for both sides.
UGA: 15.9 points allowed per game to FLA's 28.3
12.4 PPGGeorgia gives up about two touchdowns a game while Florida's defense allows nearly four, so Georgia is the side more likely to keep this one in a scoring range it controls at home. Georgia allowed 17.6 last season, so 15.9 through seven games fits who they have been. Florida's number climbed from 24 last season, which points to a real step back. If Florida needs points to keep pace, the burden falls on an offense facing the tougher defense in this matchup.
MISMATCH
UGA: 15.9 points allowed a game to FLA's 28.3
15.9 VS 28.3The widest gap between these two is points allowed a game: FLA's defense allowed 28.3 points a game over 7 games; UGA's defense allowed 15.9 points a game over 7 games this season. Last season FLA was at 24 over 12 games and UGA at 17.6 over 14 games.
COVERAGE
UGA: 184.7 passing yards allowed per game to FLA's 255
70.3 YPGGeorgia allows 184.7 passing yards a game across 7 games, and Florida gives up 255 across 7. Seven games each is a fair sample, though the sheet doesn't show opponent quality. Florida's pass defense is the clear weak side, which favors Georgia's quarterback finding room at home.
REPLACEMENT
Duke Clark (RB) is out for FLA
OUTRB #20 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Jaden Robinson (LB) is out for FLA
OUTILB #29 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Thomas Blackshear (WR) is out for UGA
OUTWR #2 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Chauncey Bowens (RB) is out for UGA
OUTRB #5 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Amaris Williams (LB) is out for UGA
OUTOLB #17 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Tyriq Green (S) is out for UGA
OUTS #23 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
SITUATIONAL
No. 17 Florida at No. 3 Georgia
#17 VS #3Florida is No. 17 in the AP poll at 5-2 (556 points, trend +3). Georgia is No. 3 in the AP poll at 6-1 (1511 points, trend +2).
TEAM RECORD
SEC game: FLA 3-2, UGA 4-1 in conference
CONFERENCEThese two share the SEC. FLA is 3-2 against it, UGA is 4-1. 2026 standings through 2026-10-31.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 31, 2026 at 8:16 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, fanatics, betrivers, betmgm, caesars.
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