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NCAAF · Sat, Sep 26 · 3:30 PM

Oklahoma Sooners at Georgia Bulldogs

O/U 44.5 · SPREAD Georgia Bulldogs -13.5

GARY'S PICK
Georgia -13.5
NCAAFvs Oklahoma· -110

Georgia
-13.5

-110 · CASHED · OU 13 · UGA 41

Oklahoma

The pick & result

Published pick
Georgia Bulldogs -13.5 -110
Published odds
-110
Result
Won
Final score
13-41

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 67 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 20 6:01 AM
Close
Sep 26 3:28 PM
Move
SPREADGeorgia Bulldogs -13.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -12 (-112)−1½
TOTAL46.5 (-108)43.5 (-125)−3
MONEYLINEGeorgia Bulldogs -600Georgia Bulldogs -500+100
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 20 6:01 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -13.5 (-110)46.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 20 8:51 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (+100)46.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -625 · Oklahoma Sooners +475
Sep 20 10:14 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-108)46.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -625 · Oklahoma Sooners +475
Sep 20 11:12 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-108)43.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -650 · Oklahoma Sooners +500
Sep 20 1:12 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-108)44.5 (-102)Georgia Bulldogs -650 · Oklahoma Sooners +500
Sep 20 3:42 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-110)44.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -650 · Oklahoma Sooners +500
Sep 20 4:43 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-112)43.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -650 · Oklahoma Sooners +500
Sep 20 5:43 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-110)43.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -650 · Oklahoma Sooners +500
Sep 20 7:44 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-108)43.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -625 · Oklahoma Sooners +475
Sep 21 6:00 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-108)43.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -625 · Oklahoma Sooners +475
Sep 21 10:01 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-110)43.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -625 · Oklahoma Sooners +475
Sep 21 11:01 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-110)43.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 21 12:01 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-110)43.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -625 · Oklahoma Sooners +475
Sep 21 1:02 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-110)43.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 21 2:02 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-110)43.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 21 3:02 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-110)43.5 (-118)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 21 4:03 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -13.5 (-112)44.5 (-102)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 21 6:03 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -13.5 (-112)43.5 (-118)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 21 11:06 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-105)44.5 (-102)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +425
Sep 22 12:06 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-108)43.5 (-118)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 22 8:30 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-108)44.5 (-102)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 22 9:31 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-108)43.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -550 · Oklahoma Sooners +425
Sep 22 11:32 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-108)43.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 22 12:33 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-108)44.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 22 2:17 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-108)44.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -625 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 22 7:28 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-110)44.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 22 8:28 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-108)44.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -625 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 23 12:28 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-108)44.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -550 · Oklahoma Sooners +425
Sep 23 6:00 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-108)44.5 (-115)Georgia Bulldogs -550 · Oklahoma Sooners +425
Sep 23 8:59 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-108)44.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -550 · Oklahoma Sooners +425
Sep 23 12:04 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-108)44.5 (-112)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 23 2:05 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-108)44.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 23 4:06 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-105)44.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 23 5:06 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-108)44.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 23 6:06 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-108)44.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 23 7:07 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-108)44.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 23 8:38 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-108)44.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 24 6:00 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -14 (-108)44.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 24 12:52 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -13.5 (-120)44.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 24 2:54 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -13.5 (-112)44.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 24 3:54 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -13.5 (-112)44.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -550 · Oklahoma Sooners +425
Sep 24 5:24 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -13.5 (-110)44.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -550 · Oklahoma Sooners +425
Sep 24 5:54 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -13.5 (-110)44.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 24 6:24 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -13.5 (-110)44.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 24 6:55 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -13.5 (-110)44.5 (-110)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 24 7:25 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -13.5 (-110)44.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 25 5:01 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -13.5 (-110)44.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 25 6:30 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -13.5 (-108)44.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -600 · Oklahoma Sooners +450
Sep 25 9:31 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -13.5 (-108)44.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -550 · Oklahoma Sooners +425
Sep 25 10:01 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -13.5 (-110)44.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -550 · Oklahoma Sooners +425
Sep 25 10:31 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -13.5 (-110)44.5 (-105)Georgia Bulldogs -550 · Oklahoma Sooners +425
Sep 25 3:33 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -13.5 (-110)43.5 (-120)Georgia Bulldogs -550 · Oklahoma Sooners +425
Sep 25 4:00 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -13.5 (-110)43.5 (-118)Georgia Bulldogs -550 · Oklahoma Sooners +425
Sep 25 8:14 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -13.5 (-108)43.5 (-125)Georgia Bulldogs -550 · Oklahoma Sooners +425
Sep 26 12:37 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -13.5 (-108)44.5 (-102)Georgia Bulldogs -550 · Oklahoma Sooners +425
Sep 26 8:31 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -13.5 (-108)43.5 (-125)Georgia Bulldogs -550 · Oklahoma Sooners +425
Sep 26 8:41 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -13.5 (-108)43.5 (-118)Georgia Bulldogs -550 · Oklahoma Sooners +425
Sep 26 9:00 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -13.5 (-108)43.5 (-120)Georgia Bulldogs -550 · Oklahoma Sooners +425
Sep 26 9:22 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -13.5 (-110)43.5 (-118)Georgia Bulldogs -550 · Oklahoma Sooners +425
Sep 26 10:34 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -13.5 (-108)43.5 (-125)Georgia Bulldogs -550 · Oklahoma Sooners +425
Sep 26 10:54 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -13.5 (-110)44.5 (-108)Georgia Bulldogs -550 · Oklahoma Sooners +425
Sep 26 11:04 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -13.5 (-108)43.5 (-118)Georgia Bulldogs -550 · Oklahoma Sooners +425
Sep 26 11:45 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -13 (-110)43.5 (-120)Georgia Bulldogs -550 · Oklahoma Sooners +425
Sep 26 11:55 AMGeorgia Bulldogs -13 (-110)43.5 (-125)Georgia Bulldogs -550 · Oklahoma Sooners +425
Sep 26 2:27 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -12 (-110)44.5 (-102)Georgia Bulldogs -525 · Oklahoma Sooners +400
Sep 26 2:38 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -12 (-110)43.5 (-118)Georgia Bulldogs -500 · Oklahoma Sooners +400
Sep 26 2:48 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -12 (-110)43.5 (-125)Georgia Bulldogs -500 · Oklahoma Sooners +380
CLOSESep 26 3:28 PMGeorgia Bulldogs -12 (-112)43.5 (-125)Georgia Bulldogs -500 · Oklahoma Sooners +380

The read

Sanford Stadium hosts Oklahoma’s first trip to Athens and its SEC opener. Georgia enters with an unbeaten start, while the Sooners arrive leaning on a defense that has carried them through uneven offensive performances.

I’m laying the points because Georgia’s run defense presents the clearest matchup advantage. Oklahoma has had 26.0% of its carries stopped at or behind the line. Georgia has stopped opposing runners there on 25.6%. I expect that combination to put too much of Oklahoma’s offense on John Mateer’s passing decisions.

Mateer threw two interceptions against New Mexico despite completing 19 of 25 passes. Trell Harris remains out, removing a receiver who contributed 104 yards across his two recorded games. Isaiah Sategna III and Rocky Beers give Oklahoma credible receiving options, but I doubt the Sooners can sustain enough productive possessions if the running game keeps leaving them behind schedule.

Oklahoma’s defense is the serious obstacle to this ticket. Its second-ranked SP+ defense and 12 sacks through three games support its ability to disrupt Georgia. I still like Gunner Stockton’s mobility as a response. He ran for 97 yards at Arkansas, and his ability to turn a disrupted passing play into a gain makes aggressive pursuit more difficult. Oklahoma must pressure him while keeping escape lanes closed.

Georgia’s schedule has been easier, so its scoring totals alone do little to settle this bet. The stronger evidence is that opponent-adjusted SP+ still ranks its offense second, while Oklahoma’s offense ranks 47th. Oklahoma also ranks 99th in explosiveness allowed on successful plays. My judgment is that Georgia can find damaging gains between the defensive stops, while its own front makes Oklahoma work harder for offensive answers. That combination gives Georgia the stronger path to covering 13.5.

Injuries noted

Oklahoma Sooners: Michael Boganowski (out) — The starting safety is listed out; the current report does not specify the condition.; Jer'Michael Carter (out) — The wide receiver was moved from questionable to out during the reporting cycle; the current report does not specify the condition.; Michael Fasusi (out) — The starting left tackle is listed out after already missing the Michigan and New Mexico games; the report does not specify the condition.; Trell Harris (out) — The wide receiver is listed out; the current report does not specify the condition.; Taylor Heim (out) — The linebacker is listed out; the current report does not specify the condition.; Cole Sullivan (out) — The linebacker is listed out; the current report does not specify the condition.; David Stone (questionable) — The starting defensive tackle remains questionable after hurting his knee in Monday's practice.

Georgia Bulldogs: Amaris Williams (out) — Current report lists the outside linebacker/edge defender out; the report does not specify the condition.; Tyriq Green (out) — Current report lists the safety out; the report does not specify the condition.; Marcus Harrison (out) — Current report lists the offensive lineman out; the report does not specify the condition.; Chase Linton (out) — Current report lists the outside linebacker out; the report does not specify the condition.; Nate Frazier (questionable) — Georgia's leading running back remains listed questionable; the current report does not specify the condition.; Isiah Canion (questionable) — The wide receiver remains listed questionable; the current report does not specify the condition.; Justice Fitzpatrick (questionable) — The defensive back remains listed questionable; the current report does not specify the condition.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • John Mateer is OU's confirmed starter

    8.69 Y/A

    John Mateer is OU's confirmed starting quarterback. Oklahoma's September 24 official game primer identifies Mateer as being in his second season as OU's starter and discusses the listed backup quarterbacks behind him. 2026 line: 652 passing yards, 62.7% completions, 8.69 yards per attempt, 6-3 TD-INT over 3 games.

  • Gunner Stockton is UGA's confirmed starter

    12.96 Y/A

    Gunner Stockton is UGA's confirmed starting quarterback. Georgia's current-week official game notes show Stockton started all three 2026 games and identify Ryan Puglisi as the first quarterback off the bench. 2026 line: 583 passing yards, 84.4% completions, 12.96 yards per attempt, 9-0 TD-INT over 3 games.

TRENCHES

  • UGA: 45.3 rushing yards allowed per game to OU's 111

    65.7 YPG

    Georgia has allowed 45.3 rushing yards a game through 3 games, and Oklahoma has given up 111. That low a number usually means opponents stopped trying to run, either because they fell behind or because the front shut it down early, and three games can't tell those apart. Expect Oklahoma to lean on the pass if the run stalls, which shifts yardage toward its passing props.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • UGA: 59.3 points per game to OU's 25

    34.3 PPG

    OU is at 25 points per game over 3 games; UGA is at 59.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 25. Last season OU was at 26.2 over 13 games and UGA at 32.1 over 14 games.

  • OU @ UGA carries a 44.5 market total

    44.5

    At 44.5, this sits 10 points under the 54.5 slate median, so the market expects two defenses to control the game and possessions to run long. Scoring likely comes slowly, with field goals carrying weight. For the number to break, the game needs short fields from turnovers or a couple of explosive plays that skip the long drive. Red zone finishing is the swing factor.

  • OU: 27:42 time of possession per game to UGA's 19:14

    8:28 TOP

    OU is at 27:42 time of possession per game over 3 games; UGA is at 19:14 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 25. Last season OU was at 29:44 over 13 games and UGA at 33:53 over 14 games.

TURNOVERS

  • UGA: 1.67 takeaways per game to OU's 0.67

    1 TO

    OU is at 0.67 takeaways per game over 3 games; UGA is at 1.67 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 25.

MISMATCH

  • UGA: 254 rush yards a game to OU's 110.3

    254 VS 110.3

    Georgia is running for 254 yards a game over 3 games, up from 182.1 last season. Oklahoma is at 110.3, close to its 118.5 from a year ago. Oklahoma's number matches its history and looks real, while Georgia's jump off three games has more room to settle. At home Georgia can grind with the run, and Oklahoma likely has to move the ball through the air because the ground game has not been there for two seasons.

COVERAGE

  • OU: 22.5% third downs allowed to UGA's 37.5%

    15 PP

    Oklahoma has let opponents convert 22.5% of third downs over 3 games, and Georgia has allowed 37.5%. A number that low over three games tends to drift up, and a trip to Georgia is a tougher test than most. Oklahoma's run defense has given up more than Georgia's, so if Georgia runs well on early downs, it may face fewer third downs in the first place.

  • OU: 100.3 passing yards allowed per game to UGA's 165

    64.7 YPG

    OU is at 100.3 passing yards allowed per game over 3 games; UGA is at 165 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 25.

REPLACEMENT

  • Chase Linton (LB) is out for UGA

    OUT

    Current report lists the outside linebacker out; the report does not specify the condition. 5 things to know about Oklahoma-Georgia: Gunner Stockton’s big challenge (2026-09-26)

  • Marcus Harrison (OL) is out for UGA

    OUT

    Current report lists the offensive lineman out; the report does not specify the condition. 5 things to know about Oklahoma-Georgia: Gunner Stockton’s big challenge (2026-09-26)

  • Tyriq Green (S) is out for UGA

    OUT

    Current report lists the safety out; the report does not specify the condition. 5 things to know about Oklahoma-Georgia: Gunner Stockton’s big challenge (2026-09-26)

  • Amaris Williams (LB) is out for UGA

    OUT

    Current report lists the outside linebacker/edge defender out; the report does not specify the condition. 5 things to know about Oklahoma-Georgia: Gunner Stockton’s big challenge (2026-09-26)

  • Cole Sullivan (LB) is out for OU

    OUT

    The linebacker is listed out; the current report does not specify the condition. Fasusi Out, Stone Questionable: OU’s First SEC Report Brings Mixed News Before Georgia (2026-09-24) 5 things to know about Oklahoma-Georgia: Gunner Stockton’s big challenge (2026-09-26)

  • Taylor Heim (LB) is out for OU

    OUT

    The linebacker is listed out; the current report does not specify the condition. Fasusi Out, Stone Questionable: OU’s First SEC Report Brings Mixed News Before Georgia (2026-09-24) 5 things to know about Oklahoma-Georgia: Gunner Stockton’s big challenge (2026-09-26)

  • Trell Harris (WR) is out for OU

    OUT

    The wide receiver is listed out; the current report does not specify the condition. Fasusi Out, Stone Questionable: OU’s First SEC Report Brings Mixed News Before Georgia (2026-09-24) 5 things to know about Oklahoma-Georgia: Gunner Stockton’s big challenge (2026-09-26)

  • Michael Fasusi (OL) is out for OU

    OUT

    The starting left tackle is listed out after already missing the Michigan and New Mexico games; the report does not specify the condition. Game Primer: OU at Georgia (2026-09-24) Fasusi Out, Stone Questionable: OU’s First SEC Report Brings Mixed News Before Georgia (2026-09-24) 5 things to know about Oklahoma-Georgia: Gunner Stockton’s big challenge (2026-09-26)

  • Jer'Michael Carter (WR) is out for OU

    OUT

    The wide receiver was moved from questionable to out during the reporting cycle; the current report does not specify the condition. 5 things to know about Oklahoma-Georgia: Gunner Stockton’s big challenge (2026-09-26)

  • Michael Boganowski (DB) is out for OU

    OUT

    The starting safety is listed out; the current report does not specify the condition. Fasusi Out, Stone Questionable: OU’s First SEC Report Brings Mixed News Before Georgia (2026-09-24) 5 things to know about Oklahoma-Georgia: Gunner Stockton’s big challenge (2026-09-26)

AFTER GARY

  • UGA -13.5 → -11.5

    NOW +2

    Gary's number was -13.5; the same book now shows -11.5.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 26, 2026 at 8:07 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, betrivers, fanduel, betmgm, fanatics, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

1
  • GARY'S PICK
    GUNNER STOCKTONRUSHING YARDS OVER 22.5
    NCAAFGeorgia· -118

    Gunner Stockton
    Rushing Yards over 22.5

    -118 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

    Georgia

    I’m backing Stockton’s legs against an Oklahoma defense that has produced 12 sacks through three games. That pressure can force him off his spot, but his mobility gives Georgia an answer when the initial play breaks down.

    He ran for 97 yards at Arkansas, and last season’s dated results show 462 rushing yards across 14 games. He does not need another explosive performance to clear 22.5.

    Designed runs, scrambles and a few read-option keeps give him multiple paths to this number, particularly if Oklahoma’s pursuit disrupts the passing game without consistently closing his escape lanes.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

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