Overcast skies and a chance of light rain hang over LaVell Edwards Stadium, and No. 8 BYU is home after its first loss, a double-overtime stunner at UCF. Arizona State rolls into Provo likely handing true freshman Jake Fette a first college start. Everything says BYU wins. I'm not convinced it wins by 17. Here's the problem with laying 16.5: BYU has beaten one FBS team by more than that all season, and it was a Colorado State defense that has allowed 49 or more four times. BYU's other FBS margins are 11, 14, 7 and 4, plus the 8-point loss at UCF. BYU plays slow, never more than 10 drives in a game, and blowouts need possessions or gifts. Yes, ASU's three losses all came by 28 or more. But look at how they happened: 9 giveaways in those games, three of them interceptions returned for scores. In ASU's other four games there was 1 giveaway total. All five ASU interceptions came from Cutter Boley, who isn't starting. And BYU's defense doesn't take the ball away: 4 takeaways in six FBS games, none at UCF. The other blowout ingredient was ASU's run defense, which got gashed for 268 yards by Texas Tech and 259 by Baylor. BYU can't run like that without LJ Martin, who's out again. Since Martin last played, BYU has run for 177, 121 and 121. Dillingham's plan should be simple: feed Cardae Mack, who went for 159 yards and 4 scores against Kansas State. BYU just gave up 174 rushing yards at UCF with a season-high 18 missed tackles. Running the ball shortens the game, and that helps the dog. BYU's corners are thin too, with Evan Johnson, Jonathan Kabeya and Seth Shigg out. Reed Harris had 147 yards against K-State with backup quarterbacks throwing. One late shot is a backdoor cover. The risk is real. ASU's line is banged up, with Tana Alo-Tupuola out and two more linemen doubtful, and a freshman under pressure could hand BYU short fields. Both of ASU's true road games ended in 28-point losses. But with Utah on deck for BYU and a number this big, I'll take the 16.5.
Overcast skies and a chance of light rain hang over LaVell Edwards Stadium, and No. 8 BYU is home after its first loss, a double-overtime stunner at UCF. Arizona State rolls into Provo likely handing true freshman Jake Fette a first college start. Everything says BYU wins. I'm not convinced it wins by 17.
Here's the problem with laying 16.5: BYU has beaten one FBS team by more than that all season, and it was a Colorado State defense that has allowed 49 or more four times. BYU's other FBS margins are 11, 14, 7 and 4, plus the 8-point loss at UCF. BYU plays slow, never more than 10 drives in a game, and blowouts need possessions or gifts.
Yes, ASU's three losses all came by 28 or more. But look at how they happened: 9 giveaways in those games, three of them interceptions returned for scores. In ASU's other four games there was 1 giveaway total. All five ASU interceptions came from Cutter Boley, who isn't starting. And BYU's defense doesn't take the ball away: 4 takeaways in six FBS games, none at UCF.
The other blowout ingredient was ASU's run defense, which got gashed for 268 yards by Texas Tech and 259 by Baylor. BYU can't run like that without LJ Martin, who's out again. Since Martin last played, BYU has run for 177, 121 and 121.
Dillingham's plan should be simple: feed Cardae Mack, who went for 159 yards and 4 scores against Kansas State. BYU just gave up 174 rushing yards at UCF with a season-high 18 missed tackles. Running the ball shortens the game, and that helps the dog. BYU's corners are thin too, with Evan Johnson, Jonathan Kabeya and Seth Shigg out. Reed Harris had 147 yards against K-State with backup quarterbacks throwing. One late shot is a backdoor cover.
The risk is real. ASU's line is banged up, with Tana Alo-Tupuola out and two more linemen doubtful, and a freshman under pressure could hand BYU short fields. Both of ASU's true road games ended in 28-point losses.
But with Utah on deck for BYU and a number this big, I'll take the 16.5.
Arizona State +16.5