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NCAAF · Sat, Oct 17 · 7:30 PM

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at BYU Cougars

O/U 47.5 · SPREAD Notre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 · LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT

GARY'S PICK
BYU +10.5
NCAAFvs Notre Dame· -110

BYU
+10.5

-110 · CASHED · ND 24 · BYU 28

Notre Dame

The pick & result

Published pick
BYU Cougars +10.5 -110
Published odds
-110
Result
Won
Final score
24-28

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 61 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 11 3:03 PM
Close
Oct 17 7:15 PM
Move
SPREADNotre Dame Fighting Irish -11 (-108)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -11 (-108)Holds
TOTAL47.5 (-112)47.5 (-105)Price
MONEYLINENotre Dame Fighting Irish -450Notre Dame Fighting Irish -425+25
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 11 3:03 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -11 (-108)47.5 (-112)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -450 · BYU Cougars +340
Oct 11 4:03 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-110)46.5 (-115)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -450 · BYU Cougars +340
Oct 11 5:03 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-108)47.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -400 · BYU Cougars +320
Oct 11 6:03 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10 (-112)47.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -400 · BYU Cougars +320
Oct 11 8:03 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-108)47.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -400 · BYU Cougars +320
Oct 11 9:03 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-105)47.5 (-108)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -400 · BYU Cougars +310
Oct 12 12:04 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10 (-115)47.5 (-108)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -400 · BYU Cougars +320
Oct 12 9:00 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10 (-110)47.5 (-110)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -375 · BYU Cougars +310
Oct 12 12:03 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -9.5 (-112)47.5 (-110)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -375 · BYU Cougars +290
Oct 12 2:33 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10 (-110)47.5 (-110)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -375 · BYU Cougars +310
Oct 12 3:34 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10 (-108)47.5 (-108)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -375 · BYU Cougars +300
Oct 12 4:34 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10 (-108)47.5 (-108)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -375 · BYU Cougars +310
Oct 12 6:36 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10 (-110)47.5 (-108)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -375 · BYU Cougars +310
Oct 12 7:06 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10 (-110)47.5 (-108)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -400 · BYU Cougars +310
Oct 13 6:00 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10 (-110)47.5 (-108)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -375 · BYU Cougars +300
Oct 13 10:31 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10 (-110)46.5 (-112)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -375 · BYU Cougars +300
Oct 13 2:32 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10 (-110)46.5 (-108)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -375 · BYU Cougars +300
Oct 13 3:02 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10 (-110)46.5 (-110)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -375 · BYU Cougars +300
Oct 13 4:02 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-108)46.5 (-110)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -400 · BYU Cougars +310
Oct 14 10:01 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-110)46.5 (-110)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -425 · BYU Cougars +320
Oct 14 11:32 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-110)46.5 (-112)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -425 · BYU Cougars +320
Oct 14 12:34 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-110)46.5 (-110)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -425 · BYU Cougars +320
Oct 14 2:34 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-110)46.5 (-110)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -425 · BYU Cougars +333
Oct 14 6:38 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-110)46.5 (-110)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -425 · BYU Cougars +320
Oct 14 10:38 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -11 (-108)46.5 (-110)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -425 · BYU Cougars +333
Oct 15 7:00 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-110)46.5 (-110)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -425 · BYU Cougars +320
Oct 15 10:01 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-110)46.5 (-110)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -400 · BYU Cougars +320
Oct 15 1:32 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-110)46.5 (-112)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -400 · BYU Cougars +320
Oct 15 5:11 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-110)46.5 (-112)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -425 · BYU Cougars +320
Oct 15 5:22 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-110)46.5 (-110)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -400 · BYU Cougars +320
Oct 15 8:51 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-110)46.5 (-110)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -425 · BYU Cougars +320
Oct 15 10:52 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-110)46.5 (-108)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -425 · BYU Cougars +320
Oct 16 12:54 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-110)46.5 (-112)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -425 · BYU Cougars +320
Oct 16 5:00 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-110)46.5 (-110)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -400 · BYU Cougars +320
Oct 16 10:31 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-108)46.5 (-112)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -425 · BYU Cougars +333
Oct 16 1:02 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-110)45.5 (-110)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -425 · BYU Cougars +320
Oct 16 1:32 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-110)45.5 (-110)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -425 · BYU Cougars +320
Oct 16 2:32 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-110)46.5 (-108)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -425 · BYU Cougars +320
Oct 16 5:40 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -11 (-108)46.5 (-108)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -450 · BYU Cougars +340
Oct 16 7:01 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -11 (-108)45.5 (-110)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -450 · BYU Cougars +340
Oct 16 7:31 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -11 (-108)46.5 (-110)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -450 · BYU Cougars +333
Oct 16 8:01 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-110)46.5 (-110)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -450 · BYU Cougars +340
Oct 16 9:01 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -11 (-108)46.5 (-110)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -450 · BYU Cougars +340
Oct 16 9:31 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -11 (-108)46.5 (-112)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -450 · BYU Cougars +340
Oct 17 12:01 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-118)46.5 (-112)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -425 · BYU Cougars +333
Oct 17 5:00 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-118)47.5 (-108)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -450 · BYU Cougars +340
Oct 17 8:30 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -11 (-108)47.5 (-108)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -450 · BYU Cougars +340
Oct 17 9:00 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-110)47.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -425 · BYU Cougars +320
Oct 17 9:31 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-110)47.5 (-108)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -425 · BYU Cougars +333
Oct 17 9:41 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-110)47.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -425 · BYU Cougars +333
Oct 17 9:51 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -11 (-108)47.5 (-108)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -425 · BYU Cougars +333
Oct 17 10:31 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-110)47.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -425 · BYU Cougars +320
Oct 17 10:41 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-108)47.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -400 · BYU Cougars +320
Oct 17 12:32 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-110)47.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -425 · BYU Cougars +333
Oct 17 2:13 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-108)47.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -400 · BYU Cougars +320
Oct 17 2:53 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-110)47.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -400 · BYU Cougars +320
Oct 17 4:54 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-108)47.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -400 · BYU Cougars +320
Oct 17 5:24 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-110)47.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -425 · BYU Cougars +333
Oct 17 6:25 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 (-110)47.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -425 · BYU Cougars +320
Oct 17 6:35 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -11 (-108)47.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -425 · BYU Cougars +333
Oct 17 6:55 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -11 (-108)47.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -400 · BYU Cougars +320
CLOSEOct 17 7:15 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -11 (-108)47.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -425 · BYU Cougars +333

The read

Two unbeatens meet under the lights in Provo: No. 2 Notre Dame at 6-0 and No. 8 BYU at 5-0, with the Irish laying 10.5 on the road. Notre Dame is the better team. I just don't think it's this much better at 4,630 feet on a Saturday night.

BYU's defense is the real thing. The Cougars allow 35.4% success and 3.3 points per trip inside the 40, and no one has run for more than 3.8 a carry against them. They held Iowa State to 200 yards and TCU to 10 points. Notre Dame's run game has mostly feasted on bad defenses. Jonaz Walton's 181 yards came against Stanford, which ranks 135th in points allowed, while Wisconsin, Rice and Michigan State held the Irish to 3.5 to 3.7 a carry. Now they're without linemen Charles Jagusah and Chris Terek.

This should be a short game. Both teams lean on the run, and BYU's offense runs through Bear Bachmeier extending plays. Fewer possessions make big margins harder to build. Notre Dame's best wins away from home were 41-13 over Wisconsin and 37-26 at North Carolina. That North Carolina game is the realistic template here, and even that margin barely clears this number.

The line is also stretched by recent results. The Irish just beat Stanford 58-7, while BYU ground out 17-10 and 24-10 wins without LJ Martin. Notre Dame's margins have been padded by 14 takeaways, a rate that won't hold against a BYU team with 3 giveaways all season. Add the 1,320-mile trip, the altitude and BYU's extra day of rest, and 10.5 is more than this game should be.

The risk is BYU's offense. Without Martin and right tackle Andrew Gentry, the backs have produced almost nothing. Notre Dame's front has 15 sacks and has smothered every run game it has seen. If Bachmeier has another day like the one at TCU (11-of-24, 62 yards), the Irish can win comfortably without doing much.

Notre Dame probably wins. I'll take the points and expect it to be closer than 10.5.

Injuries noted

Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Quincy Porter (out) — Wide receiver listed out with a knee injury in October 16 game reporting.; Charles Jagusah (out) — Offensive lineman listed out with an arm injury.; Chris Terek (out) — Offensive lineman listed out with a knee injury.; Christopher Burgess Jr. (out) — Defensive lineman listed out with a tibia injury.; Tiki Hola (out) — Defensive lineman listed out with a knee injury.; Ko'o Kia (out) — Linebacker listed out with a shoulder injury.; Chaz Smith (out) — Defensive back listed out; October 16 report attributes the absence to a wrist injury.; Brauntae Johnson (out) — Safety listed out with a foot injury.; Jason Onye (questionable) — Defensive lineman remains questionable with a left ankle injury. Freeman said October 15 that he practiced and was expected to help Saturday if progress continued.; Leonard Moore (questionable) — Cornerback remains questionable with a concussion. Freeman said October 15 that he practiced and was expected to help Saturday if progress continued.

BYU Cougars: LJ Martin (out) — Starting running back ruled out against Notre Dame with a lower-body injury.; Andrew Gentry (out) — October 14 preview reports the starting right tackle ruled out; injury details are unspecified.; Jovesa Damuni (out) — Running back listed out with a knee injury in October 16 game reporting.; Isaiah Glasker (questionable) — Linebacker listed questionable with a leg injury in October 16 reporting.; Sione Moa (probable) — October 16 report lists the running back probable with a knee injury. October 14 reporting quotes Aaron Roderick confirming medical clearance while leaving game participation undecided.; Cannon DeVries (questionable) — October 14 preview describes the nickel defender and returner's availability as uncertain while returning from injury; this is not an official questionable designation.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • CJ Carr is ND's confirmed starter

    9.57 Y/A

    CJ Carr is ND's confirmed starting quarterback. October 12 reporting reproduces Notre Dame's released BYU-week depth chart with Carr first at quarterback. 2026 line: 1378 passing yards, 70.8% completions, 9.57 yards per attempt, 16-1 TD-INT over 6 games.

  • Bear Bachmeier is BYU's projected starter

    8.91 Y/A

    Bear Bachmeier is BYU's projected starting quarterback. October 14 Notre Dame game preview identifies Bachmeier as BYU's offensive leader at quarterback; no explicit game-day starting announcement was retrieved. 2026 line: 1033 passing yards, 66.4% completions, 8.91 yards per attempt, 8-1 TD-INT over 5 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • ND: 44 points per game to BYU's 34.6

    9.4 PPG

    Notre Dame's scoring is close to last season's 42, which makes their number the steadier one here. BYU is up from 31.4 to 34.6 over five games, a real jump on a smaller sample. Notre Dame has a full season showing this level, so expect it to hold. The question is whether BYU's improvement holds up at home against a team that has scored like this for two seasons.

TURNOVERS

  • ND: 2.33 takeaways per game to BYU's 1.4

    0.93 TO

    Notre Dame forces 2.33 turnovers a game over six games, and BYU forces 1.4 over five. Takeaways are among the streakiest defensive stats, so expect both numbers to drift toward the middle. Notre Dame still has the better chance to win the turnover battle on the road. That can matter for close spreads, but it's a lean, not the main reason for a bet.

REPLACEMENT

  • Quincy Porter (WR) is out for ND

    OUT

    Wide receiver listed out with a knee injury in October 16 game reporting. What Though the Odds: Notre Dame Football Betting Info for the BYU Game (2026-10-16)

  • Charles Jagusah (OL) is out for ND

    OUT

    Offensive lineman listed out with an arm injury. What Though the Odds: Notre Dame Football Betting Info for the BYU Game (2026-10-16)

  • Chris Terek (OL) is out for ND

    OUT

    Offensive lineman listed out with a knee injury. What Though the Odds: Notre Dame Football Betting Info for the BYU Game (2026-10-16)

  • Christopher Burgess Jr. (DL) is out for ND

    OUT

    Defensive lineman listed out with a tibia injury. What Though the Odds: Notre Dame Football Betting Info for the BYU Game (2026-10-16)

  • Tiki Hola (DL) is out for ND

    OUT

    Defensive lineman listed out with a knee injury. What Though the Odds: Notre Dame Football Betting Info for the BYU Game (2026-10-16)

  • Ko'o Kia (LB) is out for ND

    OUT

    Linebacker listed out with a shoulder injury. What Though the Odds: Notre Dame Football Betting Info for the BYU Game (2026-10-16)

  • Chaz Smith (CB) is out for ND

    OUT

    Defensive back listed out; October 16 report attributes the absence to a wrist injury. What Though the Odds: Notre Dame Football Betting Info for the BYU Game (2026-10-16)

  • Brauntae Johnson (S) is out for ND

    OUT

    Safety listed out with a foot injury. What Though the Odds: Notre Dame Football Betting Info for the BYU Game (2026-10-16)

  • LJ Martin (RB) is out for BYU

    OUT

    Starting running back ruled out against Notre Dame with a lower-body injury. Fighting Irish Preview 101: BYU (2026-10-14) What Though the Odds: Notre Dame Football Betting Info for the BYU Game (2026-10-16)

  • Andrew Gentry (OL) is out for BYU

    OUT

    October 14 preview reports the starting right tackle ruled out; injury details are unspecified. Fighting Irish Preview 101: BYU (2026-10-14)

  • Jovesa Damuni (RB) is out for BYU

    OUT

    Running back listed out with a knee injury in October 16 game reporting. What Though the Odds: Notre Dame Football Betting Info for the BYU Game (2026-10-16)

SITUATIONAL

  • ND: 66.7% fourth-down conversion rate to BYU's 0%

    66.7 PP

    Notre Dame converts two of three fourth-down tries this season, while BYU has gone 0% across five games. BYU was at 58.1% last season, so a zero almost certainly reflects only a handful of attempts and should rise. Notre Dame is up from 54.8%. At home, BYU's fourth-down results are the number most likely to move, so don't assume they will keep coming up empty.

  • No. 2 Notre Dame at No. 8 BYU

    #2 VS #8

    Voters have Notre Dame close to the top: 1630 points and a first-place vote, against 1237 for BYU, so the gap here is wide even with both sides unbeaten. Notre Dame climbed a spot this week at 6-0, and BYU held steady at 5-0. A No. 2 team on the road has the most to lose, because one loss can cost it a lot of ground. BYU gets the home crowd and a chance to show its 5-0 start belongs in the top tier, which makes this a spot where the lower-ranked host tends to get some respect.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 17, 2026 at 8:07 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanatics, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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