Iowa State Cyclones at BYU Cougars

Injuries noted

Iowa State Cyclones: Drew Surges (out) — Safety listed out for the October 9 BYU game in the October 6 conference availability report reproduced by KSL; the condition is not specified there.; Caden Crawford (out) — Defensive end listed out for the October 9 BYU game in the October 6 availability report; the condition is not specified.; Ka'Mori Moore (out) — Defensive tackle listed out for the October 9 BYU game in the October 6 availability report; the condition is not specified.; Rylan Barnes (out) — October 8 reporting, attributed to the Big 12 availability report, rules Barnes out for Friday at BYU with an undisclosed condition. This supersedes his October 6 questionable designation.; Christian Greenlaw (probable) — Tight end upgraded to probable for Friday at BYU in October 8 reporting attributed to the Big 12 report; the condition is undisclosed.

QUARTERBACK

• Jaylen Raynor is ISU's projected starter

  7.39 Y/A

  Jaylen Raynor is ISU's projected starting quarterback. Iowa State's October 7 preview discusses Raynor as its quarterback entering the October 9 BYU game and documents his starting experience. The opened preview does not explicitly announce this game's starter, so the designation remains projected. 2026 line: 879 passing yards, 58.0% completions, 7.39 yards per attempt, 5-4 TD-INT over 5 games.

• Bear Bachmeier is BYU's confirmed starter

  8.19 Y/A

  Bear Bachmeier is BYU's confirmed starting quarterback. The October 8 game-specific depth-chart report lists Bachmeier first at quarterback, ahead of Treyson Bourguet and Enoch Watson. This confirms the published starter designation, not a game-day lineup announcement. 2026 line: 704 passing yards, 64.0% completions, 8.19 yards per attempt, 6-1 TD-INT over 4 games.

TRENCHES

• BYU: 75 rushing yards allowed per game to ISU's 146.6

  71.6 YPG

  BYU's run defense has given up about half of what Iowa State's has, through four games for BYU and five for the Cyclones. The sheet doesn't say who either team played, so it can't tell you whether BYU's number comes from a soft slate of run games. Four games is a small base, and this is a home spot against a defense that has been leaky on the ground. Weigh the gap as early evidence, and watch how Iowa State commits to the run once it's in Provo.

PACE & SCRIPT

• BYU: 14.3 points allowed per game to ISU's 21.2

  6.9 PPG

  ISU is at 21.2 points allowed per game over 5 games; BYU is at 14.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season ISU was at 20.2 over 12 games and BYU at 19.1 over 14 games.

TURNOVERS

• BYU: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to ISU's 1

  0.5 TO

  ISU is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 5 games; BYU is at 0.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season ISU was at 1.17 over 12 games and BYU at 1.14 over 14 games.

MISMATCH

• BYU: 57.4% on third down to ISU's 33.9%

  57.4 VS 33.9

  BYU's offense moves the chains on more than half its third downs, while ISU's converts about one in three. BYU sat at 42% last season, so 57.4% over 4 games is a big jump and likely to cool some. ISU dropped from 40.1% last season to 33.9% over 5 games, which means shorter drives and more punts. If that gap holds even partly, BYU should own possession time, and ISU needs early-down gains to stay out of long third downs.

COVERAGE

• ISU: 30.8% third downs allowed to BYU's 40.4%

  9.6 PP

  Iowa State has let opponents convert 30.8% of third downs over five games, and BYU sits at 40.4% over four. Getting off the field that often keeps drives short and keeps pressure off the offence. Third down rates move a lot in small samples, and the sheet doesn't show the quality of offences behind either number. On the road at BYU, Iowa State's third down defense is its best path to keeping the game close.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

• BYU lead the series with ISU since 2025

  1-0 SERIES

  There is exactly one recent meeting to go on: BYU won 41-27 at Iowa State on Oct 25 last season. That was a comfortable road win, but one game is a thin record, and this time the game moves to BYU's place, so the setting flips. The sheet does not say what has changed on either roster since, so lean on how each team looks now more than on last year's score.

REPLACEMENT

• Rylan Barnes (TE) is out for ISU

  OUT

  October 8 reporting, attributed to the Big 12 availability report, rules Barnes out for Friday at BYU with an undisclosed condition. This supersedes his October 6 questionable designation. College Football Injury News — Christian Greenlaw: Now probable; Rylan Barnes: Ruled out (2026-10-08)

• Drew Surges (S) is out for ISU

  OUT

  Safety listed out for the October 9 BYU game in the October 6 conference availability report reproduced by KSL; the condition is not specified there. BYU will be without two stars on Friday against Iowa State (2026-10-06)

• Caden Crawford (DE) is out for ISU

  OUT

  Defensive end listed out for the October 9 BYU game in the October 6 availability report; the condition is not specified. BYU will be without two stars on Friday against Iowa State (2026-10-06)

• Ka'Mori Moore (DT) is out for ISU

  OUT

  Defensive tackle listed out for the October 9 BYU game in the October 6 availability report; the condition is not specified. BYU will be without two stars on Friday against Iowa State (2026-10-06)

• Christian Greenlaw (TE) is probable for ISU

  PROBABLE

  Tight end upgraded to probable for Friday at BYU in October 8 reporting attributed to the Big 12 report; the condition is undisclosed. College Football Injury News — Christian Greenlaw: Now probable; Rylan Barnes: Ruled out (2026-10-08)

SITUATIONAL

• ISU: 42.9% fourth-down conversion rate to BYU's 0%

  42.9 PP

  BYU hasn't converted a fourth down in 4 games after hitting 58.1% last season, which points to a handful of tries rather than a broken short-yardage offense. ISU is at 42.9%, well off its 67.9% from last season. Both numbers rest on few attempts and should move toward last season's marks, so neither side's fourth-down rate tells you much yet.

• ISU: 1.4 fourth-down attempts per game to BYU's 0.25

  1.15 ATT/G

  ISU is at 1.4 fourth-down attempts per game over 5 games; BYU is at 0.25 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season ISU was at 2.33 over 12 games and BYU at 2.21 over 14 games.

• Iowa State at No. 8 BYU

  #8 AP

  BYU is 4-0 with 1144 poll points and climbed two spots this week, so voters are rewarding a perfect start. The sheet does not say who those four wins came against, so whether the ranking is earned or a product of a soft schedule is an open question. Iowa State comes in unranked, which puts the respect gap squarely on BYU's side. At home and undefeated, BYU has the most to lose here, and that kind of spot tends to draw public money toward the ranked side.

TEAM RECORD

• Big 12 game: ISU 1-1, BYU 2-0 in conference

  CONFERENCE

  BYU has won both of its Big 12 games, while Iowa State has split two. Two games is a thin sample for either team, and the record does not say who they played or how close the games were. That makes it too early to call BYU a clear step ahead in the league. For a bettor, BYU hosts with the cleaner start, and the useful question is whether its two wins came against teams comparable to Iowa State.

AFTER GARY

• BYU -11.5 → -11.5

  GARY +1.16PP

  Gary's number was -11.5; the same book now shows -11.5.