Sports Picks Archive — Friday, October 9, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

NCAAF@ Louisville· -108

Friday night at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. It's 77 degrees under an overcast sky with ESPN on the call, and a 3-2 Florida State team that just played its best game in years walks into the building of a 2-3 Louisville team that keeps losing by a field goal. I'm starting with the number. Louisville has lost three games this season, all by exactly three points, and seven of Jeff Brohm's last eight losses at Louisville came by three or fewer. At +3.5, a Louisville field goal win still cashes this ticket. The rating systems split on this game. SP+ makes Louisville 4.2 points better on a neutral field and FPI rates Florida State the better team, and a 3.5 home line sits right between them. With a line that close, I want the half point on the right side of three. Florida State stays inside that number by running the ball and finishing drives. Its line averages 3.41 line yards and gets stuffed on 13.9 percent of runs. Louisville's defense stuffs only 11.6 percent and has given up 781 rushing yards in five games. Ousmane Kromah averages 5.9 a carry, and Ashton Daniels just ran for 136 yards and five touchdowns against Virginia. Near the goal line, this offense scores. Florida State is 21 for 21 in the red zone with 17 touchdowns, including five for five at Alabama. It averages 4.938 points per scoring opportunity, and Louisville allows 3.444. Louisville ranks 125th in total defense and 131st in 30-yard plays allowed, its coordinators are new to the job, and its head coach said this week the scheme may need simplifying. Against that, scoring touchdowns instead of field goals is how the dog stays close. The Seminoles also have a front that can make Lincoln Kienholz uncomfortable. They have 17 sacks, 36 tackles for loss and a 17.2 percent havoc rate, and Rylan Kennedy leads the team with four sacks. Louisville has allowed 10 sacks, tied for 91st nationally, and two of its offensive linemen are out tonight. The NC State film showed missed protections and Kienholz taking a sack he shouldn't have. Louisville also gives points away. It ranks 118th in penalties per game and 130th in penalty yards. It was flagged 11 times against Wake Forest and fumbled five times at NC State, losing three that turned into 18 points. Every one of those swings matters against a 3.5-point spread. The risks on this side are real. Florida State's pass defense is 127th and gave up more than 10 yards per attempt to both SMU and Alabama, and Kienholz is throwing for 10.03 yards an attempt with one interception. Daniels has six interceptions, three of them in his only road game, and Kaleb Beasley has three picks for Louisville. Koen Entringer is back in the Cardinals' secondary after missing both of their last two losses. Ten of Florida State's 17 sacks came in one home game against Virginia, and the program has a long road losing streak. Those are all reasons Louisville can win tonight. Winning by four or more is a harder ask for a team that has played every close game this year down to the final three points. I'll take the team that runs it, finishes drives and gets after the quarterback, plus the hook.

I'm starting with the number. Louisville has lost three games this season, all by exactly three points, and seven of Jeff Brohm's last eight losses at Louisville came by three or fewer. At +3.5, a Louisville field goal win still cashes this ticket. The rating systems split on this game. SP+ makes Louisville 4.2 points better on a neutral field and FPI rates Florida State the better team, and a 3.5 home line sits right between them. With a line that close, I want the half point on the right side of three.

Florida State stays inside that number by running the ball and finishing drives. Its line averages 3.41 line yards and gets stuffed on 13.9 percent of runs. Louisville's defense stuffs only 11.6 percent and has given up 781 rushing yards in five games. Ousmane Kromah averages 5.9 a carry, and Ashton Daniels just ran for 136 yards and five touchdowns against Virginia. Near the goal line, this offense scores. Florida State is 21 for 21 in the red zone with 17 touchdowns, including five for five at Alabama. It averages 4.938 points per scoring opportunity, and Louisville allows 3.444. Louisville ranks 125th in total defense and 131st in 30-yard plays allowed, its coordinators are new to the job, and its head coach said this week the scheme may need simplifying. Against that, scoring touchdowns instead of field goals is how the dog stays close.

The Seminoles also have a front that can make Lincoln Kienholz uncomfortable. They have 17 sacks, 36 tackles for loss and a 17.2 percent havoc rate, and Rylan Kennedy leads the team with four sacks. Louisville has allowed 10 sacks, tied for 91st nationally, and two of its offensive linemen are out tonight. The NC State film showed missed protections and Kienholz taking a sack he shouldn't have.

Louisville also gives points away. It ranks 118th in penalties per game and 130th in penalty yards. It was flagged 11 times against Wake Forest and fumbled five times at NC State, losing three that turned into 18 points. Every one of those swings matters against a 3.5-point spread.

The risks on this side are real. Florida State's pass defense is 127th and gave up more than 10 yards per attempt to both SMU and Alabama, and Kienholz is throwing for 10.03 yards an attempt with one interception. Daniels has six interceptions, three of them in his only road game, and Kaleb Beasley has three picks for Louisville. Koen Entringer is back in the Cardinals' secondary after missing both of their last two losses. Ten of Florida State's 17 sacks came in one home game against Virginia, and the program has a long road losing streak. Those are all reasons Louisville can win tonight. Winning by four or more is a harder ask for a team that has played every close game this year down to the final three points. I'll take the team that runs it, finishes drives and gets after the quarterback, plus the hook.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

NCAAF@ Washington· +126

It's Friday night on Montlake, 51 degrees and overcast at kickoff. Iowa is about 1,560 miles from home and starting Jeremy Hecklinski at quarterback for the first time. Washington is 0-2 in the Big Ten and needs this one badly. The quarterback change is the headline, but I think the drop-off is smaller than it looks. Hank Brown was not carrying this offense against good teams: he went 12-of-27 for 132 yards against Ohio State. Ferentz called the camp battle between the two "very close." Iowa's only touchdown drive against Ohio State came with Hecklinski at quarterback, and he went 5-of-5 for 67 yards. He doesn't need to win this game. He needs to avoid losing it while the rest of the roster does the work. The rest of the roster is the bet. Iowa's defense allows 12.6 points per game, eighth in the nation, and ranks 10th in red-zone defense. It gives up 2.778 points per scoring opportunity, so drives into Iowa territory tend to end in a field goal or nothing. Now look at what it faces. In two Big Ten games, Washington went 1-of-10 and 1-of-12 on third down, had a 38% success rate both times, and gave up 12 sacks. Turnovers by Demond Williams Jr. decided both losses. The line protecting him is being rebuilt this week, with as many as four linemen changing roles. Washington also just lost freshman nickel Jeron Jones, who had played every game. Iowa's front has gotten to quarterbacks this year: Joseph Anderson has three sacks as a reserve, and the Hawkeyes sacked Ohio State four times. Then there's special teams. Iowa's kicker has made seven straight field goals from inside 50 yards. Its punter has downed 14 of 23 punts inside the 20. The return units have scored on both a punt and a kickoff this season. In a low-scoring game with few possessions, field position counts for a lot, and a single return can swing the outcome. Washington's case is real. Its run defense stuffs 29.1% of runs, and Iowa ran for 2.4 and 1.9 yards per carry in its two Big Ten games, so the Hawkeyes will have trouble on the ground. Iowa's secondary also gave up big plays to Michigan and Ohio State. But Washington's passing game had success rates of 42% and 33% in conference play, well below what Ohio State brought to Kinnick. Washington's three wins came against teams that are now 1-4, 1-4 and 1-5. Before the quarterback change, both SP+ and FPI rated Iowa the better team, and Iowa's strength of schedule ranks 25th to Washington's 81st. The price decides it. Iowa won its two Power 4 games by 3 and 1 points, and it has already won a tight one on the road this year, 20-19 at Michigan. Washington lost its two conference games by 3 and 4. I see this as a coin flip. Washington is laying -152 at home with an offense that converted one third down in each of its Big Ten games. In a coin flip, I'll take the side that pays +126.

The quarterback change is the headline, but I think the drop-off is smaller than it looks. Hank Brown was not carrying this offense against good teams: he went 12-of-27 for 132 yards against Ohio State. Ferentz called the camp battle between the two "very close." Iowa's only touchdown drive against Ohio State came with Hecklinski at quarterback, and he went 5-of-5 for 67 yards. He doesn't need to win this game. He needs to avoid losing it while the rest of the roster does the work.

The rest of the roster is the bet. Iowa's defense allows 12.6 points per game, eighth in the nation, and ranks 10th in red-zone defense. It gives up 2.778 points per scoring opportunity, so drives into Iowa territory tend to end in a field goal or nothing.

Now look at what it faces. In two Big Ten games, Washington went 1-of-10 and 1-of-12 on third down, had a 38% success rate both times, and gave up 12 sacks. Turnovers by Demond Williams Jr. decided both losses. The line protecting him is being rebuilt this week, with as many as four linemen changing roles. Washington also just lost freshman nickel Jeron Jones, who had played every game. Iowa's front has gotten to quarterbacks this year: Joseph Anderson has three sacks as a reserve, and the Hawkeyes sacked Ohio State four times.

Then there's special teams. Iowa's kicker has made seven straight field goals from inside 50 yards. Its punter has downed 14 of 23 punts inside the 20. The return units have scored on both a punt and a kickoff this season. In a low-scoring game with few possessions, field position counts for a lot, and a single return can swing the outcome.

Washington's case is real. Its run defense stuffs 29.1% of runs, and Iowa ran for 2.4 and 1.9 yards per carry in its two Big Ten games, so the Hawkeyes will have trouble on the ground. Iowa's secondary also gave up big plays to Michigan and Ohio State. But Washington's passing game had success rates of 42% and 33% in conference play, well below what Ohio State brought to Kinnick. Washington's three wins came against teams that are now 1-4, 1-4 and 1-5. Before the quarterback change, both SP+ and FPI rated Iowa the better team, and Iowa's strength of schedule ranks 25th to Washington's 81st.

The price decides it. Iowa won its two Power 4 games by 3 and 1 points, and it has already won a tight one on the road this year, 20-19 at Michigan. Washington lost its two conference games by 3 and 4. I see this as a coin flip. Washington is laying -152 at home with an offense that converted one third down in each of its Big Ten games. In a coin flip, I'll take the side that pays +126.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

NCAAFvs Washington State· -115

Friday night in Logan, 7 p.m. local, and the two lowest-scoring offenses in the Pac-12 meet at Maverik Stadium in Utah State's first-ever conference home game. Both teams are 1-4. Only one of them has shown me real playmakers lately. I'm laying it with Utah State because the Aggies are the side that produces. Javen Jacobs has become a weapon: 223 yards on 24 carries across the last two games, including 139 at Boise State. Eli Wood has 30 catches for 388 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 96 and 102 yards the last two weeks. Utah State's offense is the more explosive unit, 1.376 to 1.231, and it gets into scoring range far more often: 28 trips to the opponent's 40 against Washington State's 19. The Aggies have been poor at cashing those trips, 1.964 points per opportunity, and I expect that to drift back toward normal. A team that keeps reaching the 40 keeps finding points even when it stalls. Washington State's offense has nothing like that right now. It ranks No. 133 of 138 in FBS at 247 yards per game. It averages 2.8 yards per rush and has 3 offensive touchdowns in four games against FBS opponents. On passing downs it succeeds 21.6% of the time. Last week against Fresno State it ran for negative 4 yards after halftime and went 3 for 14 on third down. Kirby Moore is taking over play calling and opened up the quarterback job this week. A new voice in the booth still leaves the same personnel: Caden Pinnick has been sacked 18 times, and either backup would step in on the road with no 2026 game action. The schedules sharpen the picture. Utah State built its numbers against FPI's No. 24 schedule, with road trips to Washington, Utah and Boise State. Against FBS teams the Aggies allowed 6.79 yards per pass and 4.61 per carry. Washington State faced an easier slate and allowed 7.26 and 4.99. The Cougars' season efficiency includes a 48-7 win over FCS Duquesne. In their other four games their offensive success rate sat between 23 and 32 percent. FPI already rates Utah State ahead before home field. Then the second halves. Washington State has been outscored 17-71 after halftime against FBS teams and gave away a halftime lead to Arizona. Utah State has won its FBS second halves 29-22. If this one is tight late, I want the team that has been finishing stronger. The risks are real. Utah State has thrown 10 interceptions and lost at home to FCS Idaho State, and a field-goal win loses this ticket at -115. Washington State's front has 25 tackles for loss and will test an Aggie line that gave up 6 sacks at Boise. Still, Washington State forces only 0.8 turnovers a game. Grady Brosterhous, the expected starter, just played his first game of the year without an interception. The four Aggies ruled out (Rex Haynes, Kache Kaio, Nikko Boncore and Nehemiah Washington) have combined for 9 catches and 4 carries this season. Utah State has the players who make plays, and the Cougars haven't shown me how they keep pace.

I'm laying it with Utah State because the Aggies are the side that produces. Javen Jacobs has become a weapon: 223 yards on 24 carries across the last two games, including 139 at Boise State. Eli Wood has 30 catches for 388 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 96 and 102 yards the last two weeks. Utah State's offense is the more explosive unit, 1.376 to 1.231, and it gets into scoring range far more often: 28 trips to the opponent's 40 against Washington State's 19. The Aggies have been poor at cashing those trips, 1.964 points per opportunity, and I expect that to drift back toward normal. A team that keeps reaching the 40 keeps finding points even when it stalls.

Washington State's offense has nothing like that right now. It ranks No. 133 of 138 in FBS at 247 yards per game. It averages 2.8 yards per rush and has 3 offensive touchdowns in four games against FBS opponents. On passing downs it succeeds 21.6% of the time. Last week against Fresno State it ran for negative 4 yards after halftime and went 3 for 14 on third down. Kirby Moore is taking over play calling and opened up the quarterback job this week. A new voice in the booth still leaves the same personnel: Caden Pinnick has been sacked 18 times, and either backup would step in on the road with no 2026 game action.

The schedules sharpen the picture. Utah State built its numbers against FPI's No. 24 schedule, with road trips to Washington, Utah and Boise State. Against FBS teams the Aggies allowed 6.79 yards per pass and 4.61 per carry. Washington State faced an easier slate and allowed 7.26 and 4.99. The Cougars' season efficiency includes a 48-7 win over FCS Duquesne. In their other four games their offensive success rate sat between 23 and 32 percent. FPI already rates Utah State ahead before home field.

Then the second halves. Washington State has been outscored 17-71 after halftime against FBS teams and gave away a halftime lead to Arizona. Utah State has won its FBS second halves 29-22. If this one is tight late, I want the team that has been finishing stronger.

The risks are real. Utah State has thrown 10 interceptions and lost at home to FCS Idaho State, and a field-goal win loses this ticket at -115. Washington State's front has 25 tackles for loss and will test an Aggie line that gave up 6 sacks at Boise. Still, Washington State forces only 0.8 turnovers a game. Grady Brosterhous, the expected starter, just played his first game of the year without an interception. The four Aggies ruled out (Rex Haynes, Kache Kaio, Nikko Boncore and Nehemiah Washington) have combined for 9 catches and 4 carries this season. Utah State has the players who make plays, and the Cougars haven't shown me how they keep pace.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

NCAAFvs Iowa State· -105

Late kickoff in Provo, a dry 73 degrees at 4,630 feet, and No. 8 BYU is home for only the third time this season. The visitor is a first-year Iowa State staff on its second road trip, and it is built almost entirely around Aiden Flora. The game turns on what Iowa State does when Flora can't get loose. The Cyclones run on about 61% of their plays. BYU has held all four opponents to 3.4 yards per carry or less and gives up 75 rushing yards a game. Against the two ranked fronts Iowa State has faced, Flora ran 19 times for 89 yards at Iowa and 13 times for 54 against Utah, and the Cyclones scored 13 and 17. When the run stalled against Utah, Jaylen Raynor had to throw 40 times and went 21 of 40 for 205 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. His only road start was 10 of 19 for 93 yards. Tonight he faces a secondary with six interceptions. On the other side, Iowa State's run defense gave up 205 yards to Utah and 291 to West Virginia, 6.2 and 7.3 yards per carry, in its only two Big 12 games. Now it loses safety Drew Surges, who played last week. Losing LJ Martin hurts BYU, but Journee Tonga has 157 yards on 19 carries, and Bear Bachmeier has four rushing touchdowns. His 62 passing yards at TCU came in the rain. At home he threw three touchdowns in each game, and tonight's forecast is dry. BYU has converted 27 of 47 third downs. Iowa State has converted 20 of 58. The case for Iowa State rests mostly on what BYU is missing. The case for BYU is about what BYU does on the field: it stops the run, and it runs on a defense that has been giving up big yardage on the ground. The risk is real. Iowa State's defense allows 2.889 points per scoring opportunity, the best finishing number on either side. BYU's two Big 12 wins came by 11 and 7. A freshman is starting at right tackle. One long Flora run can swing the number. At -105, I'll take the cheaper side, the one whose strengths match up directly against the other team's.

Permanent matchup analysis →

Player props

GARY'S PICK

LINCOLN KIENHOLZPASSING YARDS OVER 240.5

NCAAFLouisville· -115

I have Florida State plus the hook in this game, but I'm not pretending the Seminoles can cover anybody. Florida State's pass defense ranks 127th, and SMU and Alabama both threw for more than 10 yards an attempt against it. Lincoln Kienholz is the quarterback best equipped to do the same. Kienholz has 1,394 passing yards through five games, about 279 a game. He's completing 96 of 139 throws at 10.03 yards an attempt, with one interception. He doesn't need volume to clear 240.5. At his rate, 25 attempts gets him there. He also has three receivers who stretch the field. Tre Richardson has 445 yards on 28 catches. Lawayne McCoy averages 20 yards a catch, with 342 on 17. Jaleel Skinner has 260 yards on 14 grabs. Against a secondary that gives up chunk plays, those are the matchups I want. This also fits my side of the game. If Florida State keeps finishing red-zone trips with touchdowns, Louisville has to answer through the air for four quarters instead of protecting a lead in the fourth. The risks are real. Florida State's front has 17 sacks and 36 tackles for loss, and Louisville is missing two offensive linemen tonight. In college, sacks come out of rushing yards, but every one is still a dead dropback. Ten of those sacks also came in one home game against Virginia, so I don't treat that number as the Seminoles' road baseline. The bigger threat to this ticket is Louisville's own run game. Keyjuan Brown is at 367 yards on 38 carries, and if Brohm simplifies things and leans on him, Kienholz's attempts could shrink. Even then, at 10 yards a throw against this secondary, I'll take the over at 240.5.

GARY'S PICK

KAMARI MOULTONRUSHING YARDS UNDER 72.5

NCAAFIowa· -115

I'm backing Iowa to win this game, but not by running the ball. When I made the case for the Hawkeyes, the strongest point against them was Washington's run defense. That's where I want to be with this prop. Moulton has 311 yards on 50 carries this season. That's 6.2 yards per carry and close to 78 yards a game, so 72.5 looks reasonable at first. The problem is where those yards came from. In Iowa's two Big Ten games, against Michigan and Ohio State, the team ran for 2.4 and 1.9 yards per carry. His season average was built against weaker opponents. Against good fronts, Iowa's running game has struggled to gain any ground. Washington's front is good. It stuffs 29.1% of runs at or behind the line, which is one of the better rates I've seen this year. That means more than one in four carries gains nothing, and those short runs pile up quickly. Iowa also can't count on its passing game to loosen things up. Hecklinski is making his first start, and until he shows he can hit throws downfield, Washington can crowd the box. The risk is volume. With a first-time starter, Ferentz may lean heavily on the run, and Moulton could see 22 or more carries. If he gets that many, 3.5 yards per carry would put him right around the line. Still, he has averaged about 12 or 13 carries a game. Even with a bigger workload, he would need to gain far more per carry than Iowa has managed against conference defenses. My game pick expects a low-scoring, field-position game decided by defense and special teams, and in that kind of game, I don't think the running back reaches 73 yards.

GARY'S PICK

ELI WOODANYTIME TOUCHDOWN OVER 0.5

NCAAFUtah State· +115

If Utah State scores on Friday night, I think Eli Wood is the most likely Aggie to be in the end zone, and +115 pays like a coin flip. Wood has 4 receiving touchdowns in five games. That is a big share of what this offense has produced. He has 30 catches for 388 yards, and he is getting better as the season goes: 96 yards and then 102 the last two weeks, including at Boise State. Those games were against a tougher group of defenses than the one he sees this week. Washington State has allowed 7.26 yards per pass against FBS opponents, and that came against an easier schedule than Utah State's. The absences also help him. Kache Kaio and Nikko Boncore are both out. They are not major producers, but their snaps and targets have to go somewhere, and Wood is the receiver this quarterback already trusts. Wood's skill set matters too. Utah State gets to the opponent's 40 all the time but has struggled to finish drives. A receiver who can score from 30 yards out does not need a clean red-zone possession, which is where this offense has stalled. Wood brings that kind of quick scoring. Javen Jacobs is the name people will reach for. At -155, though, I would be paying for two total touchdowns in five games. Wood has scored twice as often and comes at a better price. The risk is real. This could be a low-scoring game between two struggling offenses, and Utah State's passing game has thrown 10 interceptions. If the Aggies settle for field goals or turn it over, this ticket loses. But I already think Utah State moves the ball on this defense, and Wood is the player most likely to turn those drives into touchdowns. I am taking him at plus money.

GARY'S PICK

AIDEN FLORARUSHING YARDS UNDER 66.5

NCAAFIowa State· -115

This is the same idea as my BYU side, applied to one player. Iowa State's offense depends on Aiden Flora. BYU's defense is built to take that away. BYU has held all four opponents to 3.4 yards per carry or less and allows 75 rushing yards a game. That figure is for an entire offense. Flora also has to share carries with Jaylen Raynor, who has 42 rushes this season. To clear 66.5, Flora would need close to every rushing yard BYU usually gives up. Flora's two games against ranked fronts back this up. He had 89 yards on 19 carries at Iowa and 54 on 13 against Utah. Against Utah, Iowa State fell behind, Raynor threw 40 times, and Flora's carries went down. If BYU covers a double-digit number, Iowa State will probably be throwing in the second half, and Flora's touches will go down with the score. The risk is obvious. Flora has 594 yards on 73 carries, more than 8 a carry, so he can break a long one at any time. One 50-yard run can get this over by itself. I still trust BYU's defense over Flora's explosiveness, and I expect a game script that limits his carries. At -115, I'll take the under.

Research

981

RED ZONETB @ DAL
DAL: 83.3% red-zone scoring rate to TB's 47.1%
TB is at 47.1% red-zone scoring rate over 5 games; DAL is at 83.3% over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season TB was at 54% over 17 games and DAL at 56.9% over 17 games.
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
SITUATIONALHOU @ TEN
HOU: 264.8 team passing yards per game to TEN's 172.3
Houston is throwing for a lot more through four games than last season's 218.1, while Tennessee's 172.3 sits close to its 166.1 from a year ago. That makes the Texans the side more likely to set the tempo through the air, and the Titans' passing number looks like who they are. Four games is a small sample for Houston's jump, so some cooling is possible. For this game, the edge points to Houston's passing volume, with Tennessee less likely to keep pace if it turns into a throwing game.
SITUATIONALCIN @ MIA
CIN: 277.5 team passing yards per game to MIA's 163.5
Cincinnati is airing it out at 277.5 a game through four, up from 235.6 last season, while Miami has slipped from 180.5 to 163.5. The Bengals look like the team that dictates through the air, and the Dolphins look less able to answer in kind. Four games can tilt on one or two opponents, so expect both numbers to drift toward last season. A bettor can treat Cincinnati's passing game as the likelier driver of this matchup.
SITUATIONALCHI @ GB
CHI: 47.4% third-down conversion rate to GB's 26.1%
Chicago is converting 47.4% on third down through four games, 42.7% last season, while Green Bay is at 26.1% after 48.8% last season. The Bears' number looks close to who they are, but the Packers' drop over four games is likely to bounce back some. Chicago staying on the field longer is the more reliable side of this gap.
SITUATIONALDET @ ARI
DET: 287.3 team passing yards per game to ARI's 194.3
Detroit is throwing for 287.3 a game through four, up from 253.1 last season, while Arizona has dropped to 194.3 from 232.6. The Lions look like the team that will set the passing pace here. Four games is a small sample, so both may move back toward last season, Arizona's dip in particular. Detroit's air game is the likelier driver of this matchup.
PASS RUSHTB @ DAL
DAL: 1.2 sacks taken per game to TB's 3.4
Dallas is taking 1.2 sacks a game through five, while Tampa Bay is at 3.4, and both teams were at 2.38 last season. So the Cowboys' line has improved and the Bucs' protection has slipped. Five games is a short window and both may move back toward last season. For now, Tampa Bay's quarterback is the one more likely to face pressure trouble.
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
SITUATIONALSF @ SEA
SF: 57.5% third-down conversion rate to SEA's 31.1%
SF is at 57.5% third-down conversion rate over 4 games; SEA is at 31.1% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season SF was at 49.8% over 17 games and SEA at 39.8% over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTCIN @ MIA
CIN: 24.3 points per game to MIA's 11.5
Cincinnati's 24.3 points a game is almost exactly its 24.4 from last season, so that part looks stable. Miami is the story: 11.5 a game through four, down from 20.4 last season. A drop that steep over four games often bounces back some, but it has not shown up yet. Weigh how much of Miami's slump is real when thinking about whether the Dolphins can keep this one close.
PACE & SCRIPTCHI @ GB
CHI: 36:36 time of possession per game to GB's 26:46
Chicago is holding the ball for 36:36 a game through four, up from 30:59 last season, while Green Bay is at 26:46 after 29:48. That fits a Bears team that runs a lot and moves the chains. Four games stretches both numbers, so expect them to tighten. If Chicago controls the clock again, it means fewer Green Bay possessions, which matters when thinking about pace and total.
PACE & SCRIPTMIN @ NO
MIN: 12.8 points allowed per game to NO's 32
Minnesota is allowing 12.8 points a game through four, down from 19.6 last season, and New Orleans is giving up 32, up from 22.5. Both moves are big for four games, so expect each defense to drift back somewhat. For now the Vikings' defense is the better unit on paper by a wide margin, which points to scoring chances leaning Minnesota's way in this spot.
PACE & SCRIPTLV @ NE
LV: 28.8 points per game to NE's 16.3
These two have swapped places from last season: Las Vegas went from 14.2 points a game to 28.8 through four, and New England fell from 28.8 to 16.3. Four games is a short window for a turnaround that big on both sides, so both teams likely drift back somewhat toward last season. Bettors should be careful paying for the new version of either team at full price until the sample grows.
REPLACEMENTCLE @ NYJ
Kiko Mauigoa (LB) is out for NYJ
Mauigoa (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Browns, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTCLE @ NYJ
Teven Jenkins (G) is out for CLE
CLE lists Teven Jenkins as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTCLE @ NYJ
Dylan Parham (G) is out for NYJ
NYJ lists Dylan Parham as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 10.
REPLACEMENTIND @ PIT
Ashton Dulin (WR) is out for IND
Dulin is ruled out Sunday at Pittsburgh with a hamstring injury. Losing a receiver can shift a few targets around the Colts passing game, though the sheet does not say how many he usually draws, so it is a small adjustment at most.
REPLACEMENTIND @ PIT
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR) is out for PIT
Pittman aggravated his foot injury and is expected to miss multiple weeks, so he is out against the Colts and likely beyond. That pulls a starting receiver out of the Steelers passing game for a stretch. Expect the targets he leaves behind to shift to other Pittsburgh receivers, and keep the absence in mind past this week.
REPLACEMENTIND @ PIT
Arden Key (DE) is out for IND
Key, a pass-rushing end for the Colts, has a hamstring injury and Shane Steichen said Tuesday he should miss three to four weeks. That rules him out at Pittsburgh and likely beyond. A multi-week absence means the Colts lean on their other edge rushers for a stretch, which matters for pressure-driven props on both sides.
REPLACEMENTIND @ PIT
Jamel Dean (CB) is out for PIT
Dean is out Sunday against the Colts with an ankle injury, so Pittsburgh is short a corner. The sheet does not name who replaces him, so Indianapolis receivers are the place to look if a backup ends up in coverage.
REPLACEMENTIND @ PIT
Jaylon Carlies (LB) is out for IND
Carlies is listed as out for Indianapolis at Pittsburgh, with no injury or timeline on the report. He will not play, and no replacement at linebacker is named.
REPLACEMENTNYG @ WSH
Marcus Mariota (QB) is out for WSH
Mariota has a knee injury and is ruled out for Sunday against the Giants. Out means he does not play, so whoever is next on the Commanders' depth chart handles the backup role. The fact sheet names no replacement, so confirm the quarterback room before this game.
REPLACEMENTNYG @ WSH
Stefon Diggs (WR) is out for WSH
Diggs has a hamstring injury and will not play Sunday against the Giants, per Dan Quinn's Friday update. Losing a veteran receiver pushes targets to the rest of the Commanders' pass catchers. Hamstrings can linger, so his status for the following week is worth checking rather than assuming a quick return.
REPLACEMENTNYG @ WSH
Chauncey Golston (DE) is out for NYG
Golston has a neck injury and was ruled out Oct 10 ahead of Sunday's game in Washington. Out means he will not play, so the Giants line up without him on the defensive front against the Commanders.
REPLACEMENTNYG @ WSH
Charles Omenihu (DE) is out for WSH
Omenihu has a groin and an ankle problem, and he did not practice Thursday, Oct 8, before being ruled out against the Giants. Out means he will not play. With two injuries listed and no practice work, this looks like more than a one-week precaution. The sheet does not name his replacement, so check Washington's final defensive line rotation before betting on Giants sacks or pressure.
REPLACEMENTNYG @ WSH
Jason Pinnock (S) is out for NYG
Pinnock, a Giants safety, is out at Washington, per the Oct 9 report. No injury is listed and no replacement is named. Out means he will not play, so the Giants go with other safeties in the back end.
REPLACEMENTNYG @ WSH
Tyler Owens (S) is out for WSH
Owens, a Commanders safety, is out against the Giants, per the Oct 9 report. No injury or role detail is given. With Washington also missing other defenders this week, check who fills the secondary before the game.
REPLACEMENTNYG @ WSH
Nick Cross (S) is out for WSH
WSH lists Nick Cross as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 10.
REPLACEMENTNYG @ WSH
Percy Butler (S) is out for WSH
WSH lists Percy Butler as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTCHI @ GB
Kyle Monangai (RB) is out for CHI
Monangai has a toe injury and is ruled out for Sunday's game against the Packers. Out means he will not play. The fact sheet does not name who picks up his carries, so check Chicago's backfield before touching any Bears running back props.
REPLACEMENTCHI @ GB
Chris Brooks (RB) is out for GB
Brooks, a Green Bay running back, is out against the Bears with an ankle injury. The sheet does not name who takes his carries.
TURNOVERSPHI @ JAX
JAX: 2 takeaways per game to PHI's 0.5
Jacksonville is forcing two turnovers a game, and Philadelphia is getting half of one, both over four games. Takeaways swing a lot week to week, so four games is a thin base for either number. Expect both to drift toward the middle. A bettor should be careful paying for Jacksonville's turnover luck in this game.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NE
Channing Canada (CB) is out for NE
NE lists Channing Canada as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 10.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ NO
Christian Darrisaw (OT) is out for MIN
Darrisaw is out with a concussion for Sunday's game at New Orleans, ruled out Oct 10. He will not play, so the Vikings need a fill-in at offensive tackle. If you're looking at Saints pass rush props or Minnesota's passing game, factor in a changed protection unit.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ NO
Kaden Elliss (LB) is out for NO
Elliss is out with a calf injury for Sunday's home game against Minnesota, ruled out on Oct 9. New Orleans has to fill his linebacker snaps with someone else from the room. Out is final, so the Saints defensive plan against the Vikings is built without him.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ NO
Anfernee Jennings (LB) is out for NO
The Saints list Jennings as out for Sunday's home game against Minnesota, reported Oct 10. No injury was specified. Out means he will not play, so New Orleans is down a linebacker for this game.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ NO
Jeremiah Wright (G) is out for NO
New Orleans has Wright listed as out for Sunday against the Vikings, reported Oct 10, with no injury type given. He will not play, so the Saints need a different guard on the line in this one.
REPLACEMENTCLE @ NYJ
Tylan Wallace (WR) is out for CLE
Wallace is ruled out with a knee injury for Sunday's game against the Jets, reported Oct 10. He is one of four Cleveland players ruled out on the same day, and he is the lone receiver in that group, so his snaps go to the other wideouts on the roster.
REPLACEMENTCLE @ NYJ
Adonai Mitchell (WR) is out for NYJ
Mitchell will not play Sunday against the Browns because of a finger injury, and the Jets ruled him out on Oct 9 so there is no game-day doubt. The report does not name who takes his snaps. For Jets receiver props and the passing game, price this game without him and check how the targets are being spread among the other wideouts before you bet.
REPLACEMENTCLE @ NYJ
Breece Hall (RB) is out for NYJ
Hall is the Jets' lead back and he is ruled out for Sunday against Cleveland with a quadriceps injury. Losing him takes the main ball carrier out of the Jets offense, and the carries shift to the backups behind him. Pair this with Adonai Mitchell also being out, and the Jets are thin at skill spots for this game.
REPLACEMENTCLE @ NYJ
Carsen Ryan (TE) is out for CLE
Ryan is out with a calf injury for Sunday at the Jets, ruled out Oct 10. Cleveland loses a tight end, and with receiver Tylan Wallace also out, the Browns are thinner in the passing game for this trip. The remaining tight ends pick up his blocking and route snaps.
REPLACEMENTCLE @ NYJ
Mason Graham (DT) is out for CLE
Graham is out for Sunday's game against the Jets with knee and ankle injuries, ruled out Oct 10. Cleveland is also without fellow defensive tackle Mike Hall Jr., so the middle of the Browns defensive line is down two players. That is the part of this matchup to weigh when thinking about how the Jets can run the ball.
REPLACEMENTCLE @ NYJ
Mike Hall Jr. (DT) is out for CLE
Hall is ruled out with an ankle injury for Sunday at the Jets, reported Oct 10. Cleveland is also missing defensive tackle Mason Graham, which leaves the Browns two interior linemen short. Depth players will take a bigger share of the snaps up front in this one.
REPLACEMENTSF @ SEA
James Thompson Jr. (DT) is out for SF
SF lists James Thompson Jr. as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 9.
COVERAGEMIN @ NO
MIN: 22.6% third downs allowed to NO's 47.6%
Minnesota is letting opponents convert just 22.6% of third downs over four games, and New Orleans is allowing 47.6%. Third-down rates bounce around in small samples, and four games without opponent context could flatter Minnesota. New Orleans at nearly half is a clear problem. Drives against the Saints should stay alive more often than drives against the Vikings.
COVERAGECHI @ GB
CHI: 23.7% third downs allowed to GB's 48.2%
Chicago is allowing conversions on just 23.7% of third downs over four games, and Green Bay is at 48.2%. Four games of third-down data can shift with one soft opponent, and the sheet does not name them. Green Bay's rate is the louder problem. Chicago's offense should keep drives going more easily in this game.
COVERAGEBUF @ LAR
LAR: 145.5 passing yards allowed per game to BUF's 256.3
The Rams are giving up 145.5 passing yards a game over four games, while Buffalo is allowing 256.3. Low passing totals can come from facing weak passers or teams that ran the ball, and the sheet does not say which. Buffalo's number is the clearer weakness. The Rams' passing game has the friendlier matchup here.
REPLACEMENTSF @ SEA
Julian Neal (CB) is out for SEA
Seattle lists Neal as out for Sunday's home game against San Francisco, reported Oct 10, with no injury specified. The Seahawks will fill his cornerback snaps from the rest of the secondary.
REPLACEMENTSF @ SEA
Nick Bosa (DE) is out for SF
SF lists Nick Bosa as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 10.
REPLACEMENTSF @ SEA
Mykel Williams (DE) is out for SF
SF lists Mykel Williams as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 10.
REPLACEMENTSF @ SEA
Kyle Juszczyk (FB) is out for SF
Juszczyk hyperextended his right knee and has a bone bruise from Sunday's 24-14 win over Denver, and Shanahan says he will miss multiple weeks. Out means he is not playing at Seattle. A fullback mostly blocks, so his absence changes how San Francisco lines up in its run game more than it changes anyone's touches.
REPLACEMENTSF @ SEA
Jacardia Wright (RB) is out for SEA
Seattle put Wright on the practice squad injured list Tuesday with a foot injury. He was depth behind the main backs, so the Seahawks backfield against San Francisco looks the same.
REPLACEMENTDET @ ARI
Ben Bartch (G) is out for DET
Bartch, a Lions guard, is out at Arizona, per the Oct 9 report. No injury or role detail is given. Out means he does not play, so watch who starts on the interior line.
REPLACEMENTDET @ ARI
Isaiah Adams (G) is out for ARI
Mike LaFleur ruled Adams out with an ankle injury, so Arizona plays Detroit on Sunday without him at guard. Out means no decision is left: he will not suit up. The sheet does not name his replacement, so the open question is who fills that interior spot against the Lions front. If you are looking at this game, keep an eye on how Arizona's line holds up inside, since a lineup change there can affect both the run game and pass protection.
REPLACEMENTDET @ ARI
Andrew Wingard (S) is out for ARI
Wingard has a knee injury and was ruled out Oct 9 for Sunday's game against the Lions. Out means he will not suit up. The sheet does not name who takes his safety snaps, so Arizona's back end is thinner against Detroit, and bettors should check the final lineup before trusting any coverage read.
REPLACEMENTDET @ ARI
Rock Ya-Sin (CB) is out for DET
Ya-Sin has a hamstring injury and was ruled out Oct 10 for Sunday's game at Arizona. He will not play, so Detroit goes in a cornerback short. Who replaces him isn't on the report, so check the depth chart before looking at Cardinals receiver numbers.
REPLACEMENTDEN @ LAC
Pat Surtain II (CB) is out for DEN
DEN lists Pat Surtain II as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTDEN @ LAC
Kayode Awosika (G) is out for LAC
Awosika (leg) did not participate at the Chargers' practice Thursday. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTDEN @ LAC
Trevor Penning (G) is out for LAC
Penning (concussion) was a non-participant at the Chargers' practice Thursday. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTDEN @ LAC
Derwin James Jr. (S) is out for LAC
James (hamstring) has been ruled out against the Broncos on Sunday. Reported Oct 10.
REPLACEMENTDEN @ LAC
Joe Alt (OT) is out for LAC
Alt, a Chargers tackle, has a neck injury and missed Thursday's practice before being ruled out against Denver. Out means he does not play. A missing tackle puts more on the quarterback's protection, so pressure matters in this matchup.
PASS RUSHMIN @ NO
MIN: 4 sacks recorded per game to NO's 2
Minnesota is averaging four sacks a game over four games, double New Orleans's two. That much pressure usually rests on who the opponents were, and the sheet does not say. Four games is a decent start for the Vikings' rush. The Saints' quarterback facing that pressure is the matchup to think about for this game.
PASS RUSHCIN @ MIA
CIN: 3.5 sacks recorded per game to MIA's 1
Cincinnati is getting to the quarterback 3.5 times a game over four games, while Miami is managing one. Sack totals depend heavily on which lines and passers a defense has seen, and the sheet does not name those opponents. Four games is enough to show Miami's rush is quiet. The Bengals' pass rush is the edge to weigh when thinking about Miami's offense moving the ball.
REPLACEMENTDEN @ LAC
Donte Jackson (CB) is out for LAC
Jackson is ruled out with a hamstring injury for Sunday's game against Denver, reported Oct 10. The Chargers have to fill his cornerback snaps with someone else, which is the matchup to weigh when you look at the Broncos passing game in this spot.
REPLACEMENTDEN @ LAC
Riley Moss (CB) is out for DEN
Moss, a Broncos corner, has a rib injury and sat out Thursday's practice before being listed out for the trip to the Chargers. Out means he does not play. Losing a starting-caliber corner can open up the Chargers' passing game, depending on who steps in.
REPLACEMENTDEN @ LAC
Quentin Johnston (WR) is out for LAC
Johnston, a Chargers receiver, is ruled out against Denver with a chest injury. With Brenen Thompson also out, Los Angeles is down two receivers Sunday, and the sheet does not say who gets the extra targets.
REPLACEMENTDEN @ LAC
Trey Lance (QB) is doubtful for LAC
Lance is listed as doubtful with a groin injury for Sunday against Denver, reported Oct 10. Doubtful means he is unlikely to play, so expect the Chargers to go with another quarterback if he sits. Check the final inactive list before kickoff, since doubtful is the last step short of ruled out.
REPLACEMENTDEN @ LAC
Brenen Thompson (WR) is out for LAC
Thompson is out with a quadriceps injury for Sunday's home game against Denver, ruled out Oct 10. The Chargers spread his receiver snaps to the rest of the room. He is one of three Chargers on the report this week, along with quarterback Trey Lance, who is doubtful.
RED ZONEMIN @ NO
MIN: 18.2% red-zone scoring allowed to NO's 66.7%
Minnesota has held opponents to scores on only 18.2% of red-zone trips over four games, while New Orleans is allowing 66.7%. Red-zone rates swing hard on a handful of snaps, so Minnesota's number is very likely to rise. The Saints' figure looks closer to normal. Minnesota's offense should find the end zone more easily than the Saints will in this one.
REPLACEMENTCHI @ GB
Jacob Monk (C) is doubtful for GB
Monk, Green Bay's center, missed Thursday practice with a quadriceps injury and is doubtful, which usually means unlikely to play against Chicago. A change at center can disrupt snap exchanges and line calls, though the sheet does not name a fill-in.
REPLACEMENTCHI @ GB
Anthony Johnson Jr. (S) is out for CHI
Chicago lists Johnson as out for Sunday's game at Green Bay, reported Oct 10, with no injury specified. The Bears will need another safety to cover his snaps against the Packers.
REPLACEMENTCHI @ GB
Keyshaun Elliott (LB) is out for CHI
Keyshaun Elliott is out for Chicago at Green Bay, with no injury listed. The Bears play a linebacker short and the sheet names no replacement, which is a factor when judging how Chicago holds up against the Packers offense.
REPLACEMENTCHI @ GB
Caleb Williams (QB) is questionable for CHI
Caleb Williams has a hamstring injury, was limited Friday and is questionable at Green Bay, meaning his status is a real coin flip until closer to kickoff. A quarterback absence moves everything for Chicago, from the spread to every receiver prop. Bettors are better off waiting for his status before locking in anything on the Bears side.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ JAX
Saquon Barkley (RB) is out for PHI
Barkley has a hamstring injury, and the ruling came Oct 9, so this is settled before the weekend: he will not play Sunday against the Jaguars in London. The injury report doesn't name who takes his carries, so check who gets the backfield work before backing any Eagles rushing number in this one.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ JAX
DeVonta Smith (WR) is out for PHI
Smith is officially out with a hamstring injury for the London game against Jacksonville, ruled out on Oct 9. Out means he will not play, so there is no game-time question to wait on. Philadelphia will have to spread his receiver snaps across the rest of the room, and that matters more because Hollywood Brown is also ruled out for this game.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ JAX
Hollywood Brown (WR) is out for PHI
Brown is ruled out with an ankle injury for Sunday at Jacksonville, reported Oct 10. With DeVonta Smith also out with a hamstring, Philadelphia is down two receivers in London. When you look at the passing game in this matchup, count on the targets landing on whoever is left in the receiver room.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ JAX
Marcus Epps (S) is out for PHI
Epps has a groin injury and was ruled out Oct 10 for Sunday's game in Jacksonville. Out means he will not suit up, so the Eagles play this one without him in the secondary. Nothing on the report names who fills his spot, so watch for the depth chart before leaning on any Jaguars passing angle.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ JAX
Drew Kendall (C) is out for PHI
Kendall, a center, is ruled out for the trip to Jacksonville, per the Eagles' report on Oct 9. No injury or backup is listed, so the impact depends on who snaps the ball in his place. Out means he does not play this game. Line changes up front can disrupt protection calls, so check who starts at center before kickoff.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ JAX
Uar Bernard (DT) is out for PHI
Bernard, a defensive tackle, is out for the game at Jacksonville, per the Oct 9 report. No injury or role detail is given, so this reads as a depth loss on the interior until the sheet says otherwise. Out means he will not play.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ JAX
Eric Murray (S) is doubtful for JAX
Murray (concussion) is listed as doubtful for Sunday's game against the Eagles, Ryan O'Halloran of The Florida Times-Union reports. Reported Oct 10.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ TEN
Amani Hooker (S) is out for TEN
Hooker is out Sunday against the Texans with a concussion, so Tennessee plays this one without him in the secondary. The sheet does not name his replacement, so check who starts at safety before betting Houston passing props, since a backup in coverage is the spot to watch.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ MIA
Caleb Douglas (WR) is out for MIA
Douglas, a Miami receiver, is out Sunday against the Bengals with an ankle injury. The sheet does not say how big his role has been or who replaces him. Miami is also without tight end Justin Joly, so the pass-catching group is short two bodies for this game.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ MIA
Reese Taylor (CB) is out for MIA
Miami will play the Bengals in Week 5 without cornerback Reese Taylor, who was ruled out Monday, Oct 6, with a quadriceps injury. Because the status is out, there is no game-day decision left: the Dolphins have known since Monday and can plan their secondary around his absence. The fact sheet does not name his replacement, so check Miami's depth chart and see who gets the start at corner before judging how much the Cincinnati passing game gains.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ MIA
Kyle Dugger (S) is out for CIN
Dugger will miss Sunday's game in Miami with a quadriceps injury, ruled out on Oct 10. Cincinnati needs another safety to take his snaps in the back end against the Dolphins. A late change to the secondary like this is a reason to check how the rest of the Bengals defensive injury report shakes out before kickoff.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ MIA
Justin Joly (TE) is out for MIA
Joly is listed out for Miami against Cincinnati. No injury or replacement is given. With receiver Caleb Douglas also out, the Dolphins have fewer options for Sunday.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ MIA
Robert Beal Jr. (DE) is out for MIA
Beal, a Miami defensive end, is listed out against the Bengals. The sheet gives no injury detail or replacement, so the pass-rush impact is hard to size from this alone.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NE
Jalen Nailor (WR) is out for LV
Nailor is out with a concussion and will miss Sunday's game at New England. Concussion protocol has no fixed timeline, so his status beyond this week is open. The report names no receiver stepping into his snaps.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NE
Mack Hollins (WR) is out for NE
Hollins has a calf injury and is already ruled out for Sunday against the Raiders, so there is no game-day suspense here. Out means he will not play. The fact sheet does not name who takes his snaps, so check the Patriots' receiver depth chart before betting any New England pass-catcher props.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NE
Carlton Davis III (CB) is out for NE
Davis is ruled out Sunday against the Raiders with a neck injury. That status is final, so New England plays Las Vegas without him at corner. He is also one of two Patriots corners ruled out this week, which thins the back end against the Raiders passing game.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NE
Christian Gonzalez (CB) is out for NE
Gonzalez is out Sunday against Las Vegas with a shoulder injury. Carlton Davis III is also ruled out at corner, so New England is missing two cornerbacks in the same game. That makes the Raiders receivers the first place to look when lines and props move.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NE
Reggie Gilliam (FB) is out for NE
Gilliam is out Sunday against the Raiders with ankle and knee injuries. A fullback absence rarely moves a line, so this mostly matters if New England leans on heavy run formations near the goal line.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NE
Trey Zuhn III (C) is out for LV
The Raiders have Zuhn listed as out for Sunday at New England, reported Oct 10. No injury type was given. Out means he will not play, so Las Vegas has to replace him in the middle of its offensive line for this game.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NE
Karon Prunty (CB) is out for NE
NE lists Karon Prunty as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 10.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ NO
Charles Demmings (CB) is out for MIN
Demmings has a hamstring injury and was ruled out Oct 10 for Sunday's game in New Orleans. He will not play, so Minnesota goes into this one a cornerback short. The report doesn't name his replacement, so the Saints receivers' matchups are worth checking once that is known.
MISMATCHBAL @ ATL
BAL: 0.5 turnovers a game to ATL's 2
Baltimore has turned it over 0.5 times a game through four games, Atlanta 2. Last season Atlanta was at 1.06 and Baltimore at 1.35, so both numbers are likely to move, since turnovers swing a lot over four games. Atlanta has to protect the ball to keep short fields away from Baltimore. Giveaways in this spot can decide field position and the margin.
MISMATCHSF @ SEA
SF: 57.5% on third down to SEA's 31.1%
San Francisco has converted 57.5% of its third downs through four games, Seattle 31.1%. Last season it was 49.8% against 39.8%, so both have moved to the extremes and should drift back. Seattle has to win early downs to avoid long third downs it has failed to convert. San Francisco extending drives means more possessions and clock on its side.
MISMATCHDET @ ARI
DET: 287.3 pass yards a game to ARI's 194.3
Detroit is throwing for 287.3 yards a game through four games, Arizona for 194.3. Detroit was at 253.1 last season, so this is a stronger version of a known passing offense, while Arizona has slipped from 232.6. Arizona needs long drives to limit Detroit's possessions. If Detroit scores early, Arizona's thinner passing game this season makes a comeback harder.
TRENCHESTB @ DAL
TB: 72.8 rushing yards allowed per game to DAL's 168.4
TB is at 72.8 rushing yards allowed per game over 5 games; DAL is at 168.4 over 5 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 8.
P Edge side won; final 24-16
MISMATCHCHI @ GB
CHI: 196.3 rush yards a game to GB's 58
Chicago has run for 196.3 yards a game through four games, Green Bay just 58. Chicago was at 144.5 last season, so expect some cooling, and Green Bay's 119.8 a year ago says its run game should come back up. Chicago's path is to grind clock and keep Green Bay's offense waiting. Green Bay, with little rushing in four games, likely leans on the pass, so script and tempo favor Chicago controlling the game.
MISMATCHMIN @ NO
MIN: 12.8 points allowed a game to NO's 32
Minnesota allows 12.8 points a game over four games while New Orleans gives up 32. Both numbers are far from last season, when Minnesota allowed 19.6 and New Orleans 22.5, so four games has pushed each to an extreme. Expect both to drift back toward those marks. The gap still favors Minnesota's defense in this road spot, though the size of it likely overstates how far apart these units really are.
MISMATCHCIN @ MIA
CIN: 277.5 pass yards a game to MIA's 163.5
Cincinnati is throwing for 277.5 yards a game through four games, Miami for 163.5. Cincinnati was at 235.6 last season, so some of this is a hot start, and Miami has dropped from 180.5. Miami has to shorten the game on the ground and avoid trading passes with a better aerial offense. If Miami trails early, its four-game passing output gives little sign it can catch up through the air.
MISMATCHHOU @ TEN
HOU: 264.8 pass yards a game to TEN's 172.3
The widest gap between these two is pass yards a game: HOU threw for 264.8 passing yards a game over 4 games; TEN threw for 172.3 passing yards a game over 4 games this season. Last season HOU was at 218.1 over 17 games and TEN at 166.1 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTFSU @ LOU
FSU @ LOU carries a 59.5 market total
At 59.5, the market expects FSU and Louisville to put up points in bunches, a game decided by which offense keeps finding the end zone rather than which defense gets stops. That sits 14.5 points above the 45 median on a slate with only 4 posted totals, so this is the one game the market sees as a shootout. For that to crack, drives have to stall: field goals instead of touchdowns, or a slow first half that drags the pace. The over needs both offenses to stay hot all night, while the under only needs a few empty possessions.
MISMATCHTB @ DAL
DAL: 269.6 pass yards a game to TB's 173.4
The widest gap between these two is pass yards a game: TB threw for 173.4 passing yards a game over 5 games; DAL threw for 269.6 passing yards a game over 5 games this season. Last season TB was at 205.9 over 17 games and DAL at 266.3 over 17 games.
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
REPLACEMENTTB @ DAL
Baker Mayfield (QB) is out for TB
Mayfield is the Bucs' starting quarterback, so this is the biggest absence on the board for Tampa at Dallas. The thumb is still in a splint, and Todd Bowles said the next step is seeing whether he can grip a football next week, which means he is not close. The backup takes the snaps, and a bettor should weigh this Tampa offense as a different unit until Mayfield is throwing again.
P Edge side won; final 24-16
TURNOVERSIND @ PIT
PIT: 2 takeaways per game to IND's 0.5
Pittsburgh is forcing two turnovers a game over four games, while Indianapolis is getting half of one. Takeaway rates are among the least stable defensive numbers, so both should move toward average. Four games does not settle either. Leaning on Pittsburgh to keep winning the turnover battle at this rate is risky.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ ATL
Yasir Abdullah (LB) is out for ATL
Atlanta lists Abdullah as out for Sunday's home game against Baltimore, reported Oct 10. No injury was specified. Out means he will not play, so the Falcons are down a linebacker for this matchup.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ ATL
Cam Jurgens (C) is out for BAL
Jurgens is listed out at center for Baltimore at Atlanta. No injury or replacement is given, but losing the center means a new snapper and line caller for the Ravens on Sunday.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ ATL
Trey Hendrickson (LB) is out for BAL
Trey Hendrickson is ruled out for Sunday in Atlanta with a finger injury, so Baltimore plays without a linebacker it listed on the report. The status is final, so it should already be in the number. Bettors looking at the Falcons offense should check who takes those snaps before leaning on Atlanta's side or total.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ ATL
Lamar Jackson (QB) is out for BAL
Jackson has an ankle injury and is ruled out for Sunday night's game at Atlanta. The Ravens play this one without their starting quarterback, which changes how the whole offense looks. The fact sheet does not name his replacement, so wait for the starter news and expect the line and total to reflect his absence.
REPLACEMENTSF @ SEA
Chazz Surratt (LB) is out for SEA
SEA lists Chazz Surratt as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTSF @ SEA
Marques Sigle (S) is out for SF
SF lists Marques Sigle as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 7.
SITUATIONALCIN @ MIA
CIN: 75% fourth-down conversion rate to MIA's 16.7%
Cincinnati has converted three of every four fourth-down tries through 4 games, close to its 70% from last season, so the aggressive approach looks like who they are. Miami's 16.7% over 4 games sits far below its 47.8% last season, and four games of fourth-down attempts is a tiny pile of plays. Expect Miami to drift back up. If this game stays close, Cincinnati is the side more likely to keep drives alive by going for it.
PACE & SCRIPTDET @ ARI
DET @ ARI carries a 54.5 market total
The market expects this one to turn into a shootout: 54.5 sits 11 points above the typical game on a 15-game slate, so it is pricing points on most drives. The fact sheet names no injuries, weather or recent form, so the number is the whole story here. For the under to have a real shot, drives have to stall in the red zone and settle for field goals, because a total this high assumes touchdowns.
PACE & SCRIPTBUF @ LAR
BUF @ LAR carries a 54.5 market total
At 54.5, this game is tied for the highest total on the slate, 11 points above the 43.5 median. That price assumes both offenses move the ball freely and finish drives. Nothing else is on the sheet to explain it, so the number has to carry the case. A bettor should watch the early possessions: if both sides are punting and kicking field goals, the over is in trouble.
COVERAGETB @ DAL
TB: 33.9% third downs allowed to DAL's 52.6%
Tampa Bay is allowing 33.9% on third down over five games, and Dallas is at 52.6%. Dallas letting more than half of third downs convert matches its leaky run defense numbers on the same sheet window. Five games makes the Cowboys' figure harder to wave off. Tampa's offense should sustain drives more often.
P Edge side won; final 24-16
RED ZONEMIN @ NO
NO: 80% red-zone scoring rate to MIN's 50%
MIN is at 50% red-zone scoring rate over 4 games; NO is at 80% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season MIN was at 56.9% over 17 games and NO at 44.4% over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTCHI @ GB
Aaron Banks (G) is doubtful for GB
Banks (toe/knee) did not participate at practice Thursday. Reported Oct 9.
RED ZONEIND @ PIT
IND: 75% red-zone scoring rate to PIT's 44.4%
Indianapolis is scoring on three of every four red-zone trips through 4 games, up from 65.2% last season. Pittsburgh has dropped to 44.4% from 58.8%, which means a lot of short field goals instead of touchdowns. Red-zone rates swing hard over 4 games, so both numbers should pull back toward last season. For now Indianapolis finishes drives and Pittsburgh settles, which matters for team totals more than the spread.
MISMATCHISU @ BYU
BYU: 57.4% on third down to ISU's 33.9%
BYU's offense moves the chains on more than half its third downs, while ISU's converts about one in three. BYU sat at 42% last season, so 57.4% over 4 games is a big jump and likely to cool some. ISU dropped from 40.1% last season to 33.9% over 5 games, which means shorter drives and more punts. If that gap holds even partly, BYU should own possession time, and ISU needs early-down gains to stay out of long third downs.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSDET @ ARI
DET: 5.85 yards per play to ARI's 4.38
Detroit gains about a yard and a half more per snap than Arizona, and its 5.85 is right in line with the 5.97 it posted last season. Arizona has slipped from 5.18 to 4.38 over 4 games. Detroit's big-play passing showed up last game with Goff hitting TeSlaa for 57 and Williams for 49. Arizona needs long, clean drives to keep pace, so Detroit's explosive throws are the edge to weigh.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ MIA
Ja'Marr Chase (WR) is questionable for CIN
Chase is still in concussion protocol and will be listed questionable for Sunday at Miami. Questionable here depends on him clearing the protocol, and that is a medical decision that can come late. The sheet does not name who takes his targets, so Cincinnati passing props carry real uncertainty until his status is final.
REPLACEMENTCLE @ NYJ
Dillon Gabriel (QB) is ir-r for CLE
Gabriel (back) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports. Reported Oct 10.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ NO
Barion Brown (WR) is questionable for NO
Brown (thigh) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Vikings, Emily Leiker of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ NO
Alvin Kamara (RB) is questionable for NO
Kamara (back) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Vikings, Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com reports. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ NO
Jordan Addison (WR) is questionable for MIN
Addison (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game in New Orleans, Alec Lewis of The Athletic reports. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ NO
Justin Jefferson (WR) is questionable for MIN
Jefferson is questionable with an ankle injury for Sunday's game at New Orleans. Questionable means a real chance either way, and the report gives no practice detail or date for the injury. His status is the one to confirm before kickoff, since a Minnesota passing game without him looks very different.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NE
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) is questionable for NE
Stevenson (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Raiders. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NE
Ashton Jeanty (RB) is questionable for LV
Jeanty (ankle/foot) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Patriots, with Raiders coach Klint Kubiak saying Friday that the running back will "do his best to go,"Levi Edwards of the Raiders' official site reports. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ MIA
Jaylen Wright (RB) is questionable for MIA
Wright (foot) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Bengals, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ MIA
Colbie Young (WR) is questionable for CIN
Young (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Dolphins, Paul Dehner Jr. of The Athletic reports. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ MIA
Tee Higgins (WR) is questionable for CIN
Higgins (groin/neck) was a full practice participant Friday but is still listed as questionable for Sunday's game at Miami, Paul Dehner Jr. of The Athletic reports. Reported Oct 9.
PACE & SCRIPTNYG @ WSH
NYG: 19.8 points allowed per game to WSH's 30.5
The Giants are allowing 19.8 points a game through 4 games, a big drop from 25.8 last season. Washington has gone the other way, from 26.5 to 30.5. Four games is a short sample and early schedules vary, so both should drift back some. Washington's defense is the bigger worry right now, which points toward the Giants finding points on the road.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ TEN
Carnell Tate (WR) is questionable for TEN
Tate is dealing with a back injury, and questionable means his status for Sunday against the Texans is a genuine toss-up rather than a formality. The report doesn't say how he practiced or when he got hurt, so there's little to lean on yet. Check the inactive list before kickoff, especially for any Tennessee receiving props.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ TEN
Treyvhon Saunders (WR) is questionable for HOU
The Texans cut Saunders from the practice squad with an injury settlement Tuesday, so he is no longer part of the team. Nothing changes for Houston against Tennessee.
REPLACEMENTTB @ DAL
CeeDee Lamb (WR) is questionable for DAL
Lamb is listed as questionable with what's described as a quad bruise, and the report says it is not considered serious. Questionable means it's a true game-time call, but a bruise with that description leans toward him playing against Tampa Bay. Check the final status before kickoff, since any Dallas receiving bet rests on whether he's out there.
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
TRENCHESIOWA @ WASH
IOWA: 180.2 rushing yards per game to WASH's 109
Iowa's run game is right where it was last season, 180.2 a game against 176.9, so this is who they are. Washington's ground game has fallen hard, from 165.5 last season to 109 over 5 games. Iowa will try to shorten the game and keep the ball, and if Washington can't answer on the ground, the Huskies lean on the pass to keep pace.
TURNOVERSDEN @ LAC
DEN: 1.25 turnovers committed per game to LAC's 2.5
The Chargers are giving the ball away 2.5 times a game through 4 games, double the 1.24 they averaged last season. Denver sits at 1.25, close to its 1 from last season. Turnover rates are noisy over 4 games and the Chargers should calm down. Denver's careful habits look real, so the Chargers carry more risk of handing away possessions in this one.
TURNOVERSSF @ SEA
SEA: 2 takeaways per game to SF's 0.75
Seattle is forcing two turnovers a game over four games, while San Francisco is at 0.75. Turnovers are noisy, so four games is short for either team. Seattle's rate is likely to come down. Betting on Seattle winning the turnover margin again is paying for a number that tends to fade.
REPLACEMENTBUF @ LAR
DJ Moore (WR) is questionable for BUF
Moore is questionable for Buffalo at the Rams with a shoulder injury, and he did not practice Friday. A player who misses practice through the end of the week often lands on the wrong side of a questionable tag, so wait for the inactive list before betting his props.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ ATL
Zay Flowers (WR) is questionable for BAL
Flowers is questionable with a foot injury for Sunday night in Atlanta. The report doesn't say how much he practiced, so it's a true coin flip from what's available. Because it's the late game, his status should be known before most other lines settle, which leaves time to adjust any Baltimore receiving bets.
REPLACEMENTSF @ SEA
George Holani (RB) is questionable for SEA
Holani (ribs/knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the 49ers, Bob Condotta of The Seattle Times reports. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTDEN @ LAC
Ladd McConkey (WR) is questionable for LAC
McConkey (foot) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Denver, while teammate Quentin Johnston (chest) has been ruled out. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTNYG @ WSH
Terry McLaurin (WR) is questionable for WSH
McLaurin (hamstring), who is officially questionable for Sunday's game against the Giants, will be a game-time decision, as Jeremy Fowler of ESPN highlighted Friday in a Week 5 injury update on SportsCenter. Reported Oct 10.
REPLACEMENTIND @ PIT
Rico Dowdle (RB) is questionable for PIT
Dowdle (toe) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Colts, Mike DeFabo reports. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTIND @ PIT
Darius Slayton (WR) is questionable for IND
Slayton (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Steelers. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTIND @ PIT
Keenan Allen (WR) is questionable for IND
Allen is questionable with a groin injury for Sunday's game in Pittsburgh. The report doesn't include his practice participation, which is usually the best tell on whether a questionable tag leans toward playing. Groin issues can limit snaps even when a receiver suits up, so his yardage props carry extra risk until his status is clear.
PACE & SCRIPTBUF @ LAR
BUF: 31.8 points per game to LAR's 21.3
Buffalo is scoring 31.8 a game through 4 games, up from 28.3 last season, so the offense looks as good as ever. The Rams have dropped hard, from 30.5 last season to 21.3. Four games can hide a lot, and the Rams' scoring track record suggests some bounce back at home. Buffalo is the steadier offense right now, but the Rams' number is the one likely to move.
PASS RUSHDEN @ LAC
DEN: 1.25 sacks taken per game to LAC's 3
The Chargers are taking 3 sacks a game through 4 games, which is actually down from 3.75 last season, so pressure getting home is a steady part of their profile. Denver has cut its number to 1.25 from 1.77. Expect this gap to hold. Drives for the Chargers stall more often behind lost-yardage sacks, a problem that follows them into this game.
MISMATCHDEN @ LAC
DEN: 1.25 turnovers a game to LAC's 2.5
Denver has given it away 1.25 times a game through four games, the Chargers 2.5. Last season the Chargers were at 1.24, so their giveaways have doubled, while Denver sits near its 1 from a year ago. Expect the Chargers' number to come down, but they still have to protect the ball. Giveaways in a division game decide field position and close margins.
PASS RUSHDET @ ARI
DET: 3.75 sacks recorded per game to ARI's 2
Detroit is averaging 3.75 sacks a game over four games, and Arizona is at two. The sheet does not say which lines Detroit has faced, so schedule may help. Four games is a reasonable early read on the Lions' rush. Arizona's quarterback under that pressure is the spot to think about for this game.
MISMATCHNYG @ WSH
NYG: 19.8 points allowed a game to WSH's 30.5
The Giants have allowed 19.8 points a game through four games, Washington 30.5. Last season both were worse than average, 25.8 and 26.5, so the Giants' improvement may be partly a four-game run and Washington's jump a defensive dip. Washington's offense likely has to outscore its own defense here. A game where the Giants' offense finds room against that defense points toward points on the board.
REPLACEMENTWSU @ USU
Nikko Boncore (WR) is out for the season for USU
October 7 reporting, attributed to the Pac-12 availability report, establishes the wide receiver's season-ending absence; condition undisclosed. Nikko Boncore Injury: Out for remainder of season — RotoWire (2026-10-07)
MISMATCHIOWA @ WASH
IOWA: 180.2 rush yards a game to WASH's 109
The widest gap between these two is rush yards a game: IOWA ran for 180.2 rushing yards a game over 5 games; WASH ran for 109 rushing yards a game over 5 games this season. Last season IOWA was at 176.9 over 13 games and WASH at 165.5 over 13 games.
RED ZONECIN @ MIA
CIN: 30.8% red-zone scoring allowed to MIA's 64.7%
Cincinnati is letting opponents score on 30.8% of red-zone trips over four games, while Miami is at 64.7%. Red-zone defense swings on very few plays, so Cincinnati's rate is likely to climb. Miami's looks more normal. The Bengals' offense should cash in close more readily than Miami's.
PACE & SCRIPTCHI @ GB
CHI: 28 points per game to GB's 18.3
CHI is at 28 points per game over 4 games; GB is at 18.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season CHI was at 25.9 over 17 games and GB at 23 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALIND @ PIT
IND: 83.3% fourth-down conversion rate to PIT's 33.3%
Indianapolis has converted 83.3% of fourth downs through 4 games, up from 66.7% last season. Pittsburgh has dropped to 33.3% from 52.2%. Fourth-down tries are few, so both numbers can swing on a single play. Indianapolis keeps drives alive when it goes for it, which can matter late in a close game.
MISMATCHPHI @ JAX
JAX: 13.3 points allowed a game to PHI's 23.3
Jacksonville has allowed 13.3 points a game through four games, Philadelphia 23.3. Last season they were close at 19.8 and 19.1, so Jacksonville's start is likely to move up some. Philadelphia has to finish drives with touchdowns against a defense that has kept scores low. A low-scoring, field-position game favors the defense that has been stronger this season.
COVERAGEBUF @ LAR
LAR: 4.13 yards per play allowed to BUF's 5.45
The Rams are allowing 4.13 yards per play over four games, and Buffalo is allowing 5.45. Yards per play is steadier than most defensive stats, though opponent strength still matters and is not on the sheet. The Rams look like the tougher unit to move against. That gap points to the Rams' offense finding more room in this game.
PACE & SCRIPTPHI @ JAX
JAX: 13.3 points allowed per game to PHI's 23.3
Jacksonville is allowing just 13.3 points a game through 4 games, down from 19.8 last season. Philadelphia's defense has gone from 19.1 allowed to 23.3. Four-game defensive numbers bounce around, and Jacksonville's should rise some. The trend favors Jacksonville at home, especially with a quieter Philadelphia offense on the other side.
PACE & SCRIPTCHI @ GB
CHI: 16.3 points allowed per game to GB's 26.3
CHI is at 16.3 points allowed per game over 4 games; GB is at 26.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season CHI was at 24.4 over 17 games and GB at 21.2 over 17 games.
TRENCHESISU @ BYU
BYU: 75 rushing yards allowed per game to ISU's 146.6
BYU's run defense has given up about half of what Iowa State's has, through four games for BYU and five for the Cyclones. The sheet doesn't say who either team played, so it can't tell you whether BYU's number comes from a soft slate of run games. Four games is a small base, and this is a home spot against a defense that has been leaky on the ground. Weigh the gap as early evidence, and watch how Iowa State commits to the run once it's in Provo.
SITUATIONALCHI @ GB
CHI: 25.3 first downs per game to GB's 17
CHI is at 25.3 first downs per game over 4 games; GB is at 17 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season CHI was at 21.1 over 17 games and GB at 19.6 over 17 games.
PRACTICE REPORTDEN @ LAC
Quentin Johnston
Chest · Limited practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTDEN @ LAC
Donte Jackson
Hamstring · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTDEN @ LAC
Brenen Thompson
Quadricep · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTDEN @ LAC
Riley Moss
Ribs · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTDEN @ LAC
Derwin James Jr.
Hamstring · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTDEN @ LAC
Joe Alt
Neck · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTDEN @ LAC
Kayode Awosika
Fibula · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTDEN @ LAC
Trevor Penning
Concussion · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTDET @ ARI
Cade Mays
Wrist · Limited practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTDET @ ARI
Ben Bartch
Foot · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTDET @ ARI
Brian Branch
Achilles · Limited practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTDET @ ARI
Isaiah Adams
Ankle · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTDET @ ARI
Andrew Wingard
Knee · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTDET @ ARI
Rock Ya-Sin
Hamstring · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ SEA
Kyle Juszczyk
Knee · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ SEA
Marques Sigle
Ankle · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ SEA
Zach Charbonnet
Knee · Limited practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ SEA
Chazz Surratt
Calf · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ SEA
Julian Neal
Hamstring · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ SEA
Nick Bosa
Knee, Calf · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ SEA
James Thompson Jr.
Ankle · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTBAL @ ATL
Yasir Abdullah
Hamstring · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTBAL @ ATL
Lamar Jackson
Ankle · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTBAL @ ATL
Trey Hendrickson
Finger · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTBAL @ ATL
Cam Jurgens
Concussion · Did not practice · Out
SITUATIONALFSU @ LOU
FSU: 57.1% fourth-down conversion rate to LOU's 0%
FSU converts fourth downs at almost the same clip as last season, 57.1% now and 55.2% then. Louisville has not converted one in 5 games, after hitting 64.3% last season, which says more about few tries and bad luck than a real collapse. Expect Louisville's number to climb, so don't count on the Cardinals passing on or failing every short-yardage gamble.
SITUATIONALSF @ SEA
SF: 43.3 penalty yards per game to SEA's 81.8
Seattle is averaging 81.8 penalty yards a game through 4 games, a huge jump from 46.6 last season. San Francisco is at 43.3, close to its 38.3. Seattle's number should come down over a longer stretch. For now those flags extend San Francisco drives and kill Seattle's, which matters in a tight divisional game.
SITUATIONALCHI @ GB
CHI: 47.3 penalty yards per game to GB's 86
CHI is at 47.3 penalty yards per game over 4 games; GB is at 86 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season CHI was at 57.1 over 17 games and GB at 48.1 over 17 games.
PRACTICE REPORTTB @ DAL
Baker Mayfield
Thumb · Did not practice · Out
P Edge side won; final 24-16
REPLACEMENTHOU @ TEN
David Martin-Robinson (TE) is questionable for TEN
Martin-Robinson is questionable Sunday against the Texans with a hamstring injury. Questionable means a real chance he plays and a real chance he does not, so hold off on Titans tight end props until his status is set.
REPLACEMENTDEN @ LAC
Charlie Kolar (TE) is questionable for LAC
Kolar (forearm) remained limited in Thursday's practice. Reported Oct 8.
PACE & SCRIPTCHI @ GB
CHI: 74.5 offensive plays per game to GB's 58.8
CHI is at 74.5 offensive plays per game over 4 games; GB is at 58.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season CHI was at 64.9 over 17 games and GB at 59.4 over 17 games.
PRACTICE REPORTPHI @ JAX
Drew Kendall
Knee · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTPHI @ JAX
DeVonta Smith
Hamstring · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTPHI @ JAX
Saquon Barkley
Hamstring · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTTB @ DAL
Antoine Winfield Jr.
Rib · Did not practice · Out
P Edge side won; final 24-16
PRACTICE REPORTTB @ DAL
DeMarvion Overshown
Hamstring · Did not practice · Out
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
PRACTICE REPORTTB @ DAL
Cobie Durant
Hamstring · Did not practice · Out
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
PRACTICE REPORTTB @ DAL
SirVocea Dennis
Ankle, Foot · Did not practice · Out
P Edge side won; final 24-16
PRACTICE REPORTTB @ DAL
Drew Shelton
Hamstring · Did not practice · Out
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
PRACTICE REPORTTB @ DAL
Benjamin Morrison
Quadricep · Did not practice · Out
P Edge side won; final 24-16
PRACTICE REPORTPHI @ JAX
Hollywood Brown
Ankle · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTPHI @ JAX
Marcus Epps
Groin · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTPHI @ JAX
Jaylon Jones
Hamstring · Limited practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTHOU @ TEN
Amani Hooker
Concussion · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTHOU @ TEN
Tank Dell
Knee · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTCIN @ MIA
Justin Joly
Concussion · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTCIN @ MIA
Caleb Douglas
Ankle · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTCIN @ MIA
Reese Taylor
Quadricep · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTCIN @ MIA
Robert Beal Jr.
Hamstring · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTCIN @ MIA
Kyle Dugger
Quadricep · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTLV @ NE
Trey Zuhn III
Knee · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTLV @ NE
Jalen Nailor
Concussion · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTLV @ NE
Channing Canada
Hamstring · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTLV @ NE
Carlton Davis III
Neck · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTLV @ NE
Mack Hollins
Calf · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTLV @ NE
Reggie Gilliam
Ankle, Knee · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTLV @ NE
Karon Prunty
Hamstring · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTLV @ NE
Christian Gonzalez
Shoulder · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTLV @ NE
Dont'e Thornton Jr.
Hamstring · Full practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTMIN @ NO
Christian Darrisaw
Concussion · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTMIN @ NO
Charles Demmings
Hamstring · Limited practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTMIN @ NO
Jeremiah Wright
Concussion · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTMIN @ NO
Kaden Elliss
Calf · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTMIN @ NO
Anfernee Jennings
Knee · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTCLE @ NYJ
Breece Hall
Quadricep · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTCLE @ NYJ
Mike Hall Jr.
Ankle · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTCLE @ NYJ
Dillon Gabriel
Back · Full practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTCLE @ NYJ
Adonai Mitchell
Finger · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTCLE @ NYJ
Dylan Parham
Knee · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTCLE @ NYJ
Kiko Mauigoa
Quadricep · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTCLE @ NYJ
Teven Jenkins
Back · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTCLE @ NYJ
Tylan Wallace
Knee · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTCLE @ NYJ
Mason Graham
Knee, Ankle · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTCLE @ NYJ
Kalia Davis
Quadricep · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTCLE @ NYJ
Carsen Ryan
Calf · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTIND @ PIT
Will Mallory
Thumb · Full practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTIND @ PIT
Arden Key
Hamstring · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTIND @ PIT
Jaylon Carlies
Ribs · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTIND @ PIT
DeShon Elliott
Knee · Limited practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTIND @ PIT
Ashton Dulin
Hamstring · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTIND @ PIT
Jamel Dean
Ankle · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTIND @ PIT
Michael Pittman Jr.
Foot · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Stefon Diggs
Hamstring · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Percy Butler
Hamstring · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Chauncey Golston
Neck · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Marcus Mariota
Knee · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Jason Pinnock
Concussion · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Tyler Owens
Hamstring · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Charles Omenihu
Groin, Ankle · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Nick Cross
Illness · Limited practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTCHI @ GB
Chris Brooks
Ankle · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTCHI @ GB
Savion Williams
Ankle · Limited practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTCHI @ GB
Keyshaun Elliott
Quadricep · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTCHI @ GB
Kyle Monangai
Thumb, Toe · Did not practice · Out
PRACTICE REPORTDEN @ LAC
Pat Surtain II
Ankle · Did not practice · Out
SITUATIONALBAL @ ATL
BAL: 241.5 team passing yards per game to ATL's 179.5
Baltimore is throwing for 241.5 yards a game through 4 games, way up from 175.6 last season, so the offense has leaned more on the pass. Atlanta has dropped to 179.5 from 207.2. Four games is short, but Baltimore's shift looks like a real choice. Expect Baltimore to move it through the air, and Atlanta to need its running game.
COVERAGESF @ SEA
SEA: 28.6% third downs allowed to SF's 44.1%
Seattle is allowing 28.6% on third down over four games, while San Francisco is at 44.1%. Four games is a small window for third-down rates, and the opponents are not named. San Francisco's figure is the softer one. Seattle's offense should keep more drives alive in this matchup.
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Devin Carter (WR) is out for FSU
WR; condition unspecified. Florida State and Louisville release Thursday availability report ahead of Friday night clash — Tomahawk Nation; original publication October 7 at 00:57 UTC; body reports Thursday update for October 9 game (2026-10-07)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Karson Hobbs (DB) is out for FSU
DB; condition unspecified. Florida State and Louisville release Thursday availability report ahead of Friday night clash — Tomahawk Nation; original publication October 7 at 00:57 UTC; body reports Thursday update for October 9 game (2026-10-07)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Jamari Howard (DB) is out for FSU
DB; condition unspecified. Florida State and Louisville release Thursday availability report ahead of Friday night clash — Tomahawk Nation; original publication October 7 at 00:57 UTC; body reports Thursday update for October 9 game (2026-10-07)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Zae Thomas (DB) is out for FSU
DB; condition unspecified. Florida State and Louisville release Thursday availability report ahead of Friday night clash — Tomahawk Nation; original publication October 7 at 00:57 UTC; body reports Thursday update for October 9 game (2026-10-07)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Jordan Crutchfield (DB) is out for FSU
DB; condition unspecified. Florida State and Louisville release Thursday availability report ahead of Friday night clash — Tomahawk Nation; original publication October 7 at 00:57 UTC; body reports Thursday update for October 9 game (2026-10-07)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Blake Nichelson (LB) is out for FSU
LB; condition unspecified. Florida State and Louisville release Thursday availability report ahead of Friday night clash — Tomahawk Nation; original publication October 7 at 00:57 UTC; body reports Thursday update for October 9 game (2026-10-07)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Izayia Williams (LB) is out for FSU
LB; condition unspecified. Florida State and Louisville release Thursday availability report ahead of Friday night clash — Tomahawk Nation; original publication October 7 at 00:57 UTC; body reports Thursday update for October 9 game (2026-10-07)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Daylen Green (LB) is out for FSU
LB; condition unspecified. Florida State and Louisville release Thursday availability report ahead of Friday night clash — Tomahawk Nation; original publication October 7 at 00:57 UTC; body reports Thursday update for October 9 game (2026-10-07)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Noah LaVallee (LB) is out for FSU
LB; condition unspecified. Florida State and Louisville release Thursday availability report ahead of Friday night clash — Tomahawk Nation; original publication October 7 at 00:57 UTC; body reports Thursday update for October 9 game (2026-10-07)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Antonio Watts (DB) is out for LOU
DB; condition unspecified. FSU defensive lineman's injury status upgraded for Louisville game — FSU Wire/AOL; published 00:24 UTC; concerns October 9 game (2026-10-09)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Jacob Baker (P) is out for LOU
Punter; condition unspecified. FSU defensive lineman's injury status upgraded for Louisville game — FSU Wire/AOL; published 00:24 UTC; concerns October 9 game (2026-10-09)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Montavin Quisenberry (WR) is out for LOU
WR; condition unspecified. FSU defensive lineman's injury status upgraded for Louisville game — FSU Wire/AOL; published 00:24 UTC; concerns October 9 game (2026-10-09)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Travis Egan (TE) is out for LOU
TE; condition unspecified. FSU defensive lineman's injury status upgraded for Louisville game — FSU Wire/AOL; published 00:24 UTC; concerns October 9 game (2026-10-09)
REPLACEMENTISU @ BYU
Rylan Barnes (TE) is out for ISU
October 8 reporting, attributed to the Big 12 availability report, rules Barnes out for Friday at BYU with an undisclosed condition. This supersedes his October 6 questionable designation. College Football Injury News — Christian Greenlaw: Now probable; Rylan Barnes: Ruled out (2026-10-08)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Samuel Singleton Jr. (RB) is out for FSU
RB; condition unspecified in availability report. Florida State and Louisville release Thursday availability report ahead of Friday night clash — Tomahawk Nation; original publication October 7 at 00:57 UTC; body reports Thursday update for October 9 game (2026-10-07)
RED ZONEPHI @ JAX
JAX: 28.6% red-zone scoring allowed to PHI's 58.8%
Jacksonville is holding opponents to scores on 28.6% of red-zone trips over four games, while Philadelphia is allowing 58.8%. Red-zone stops are among the most volatile numbers, so Jacksonville's figure is likely to rise. Philadelphia's sits closer to normal. Expect Jacksonville's offense to finish drives a bit more easily.
REPLACEMENTIOWA @ WASH
Tyler Brown (DB) is out for IOWA
Safety ruled out by Ferentz on October 6, who said he would remain out for a while. The transcript does not specify the condition. Kirk Ferentz News Conference Transcript | Oct. 6 (2026-10-06)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Sam Dawson (DL) is out for LOU
DL; condition unspecified. FSU defensive lineman's injury status upgraded for Louisville game — FSU Wire/AOL; published 00:24 UTC; concerns October 9 game (2026-10-09)
REPLACEMENTWSU @ USU
Kache Kaio (TE) is out for USU
October 8 report rules the tight end out against Washington State with an undisclosed condition. Utah State News, Schedule, and Roster — RotoWire; October 8 availability updates for Washington State (2026-10-08)
REPLACEMENTWSU @ USU
Rex Haynes (WR) is out for USU
October 8 report rules the wide receiver out against Washington State with an undisclosed condition. Utah State News, Schedule, and Roster — RotoWire; October 8 availability updates for Washington State (2026-10-08)
REPLACEMENTWSU @ USU
Nehemiah Washington (RB) is out for USU
October 8 report rules the running back out against Washington State with an undisclosed condition, superseding earlier probable and questionable designations. Utah State News, Schedule, and Roster — RotoWire; October 8 availability updates for Washington State (2026-10-08)
REPLACEMENTBUF @ LAR
Jaylen Watson (CB) is questionable for LAR
Watson is a Rams cornerback with a shoulder injury who was limited at practice Thursday, Oct 9, and is questionable for Buffalo. Questionable leaves his status open, and a shoulder can limit a corner's tackling and press work even if he suits up. The sheet does not say who replaces him, so check the final injury report before leaning on Buffalo's passing game against this secondary.
REPLACEMENTBUF @ LAR
Dee Alford (CB) is questionable for BUF
Alford has an ankle injury and did not practice Thursday. Questionable after a missed session means his availability at the Rams is uncertain. The sheet does not name his replacement in Buffalo's secondary. Pair this with Ed Oliver's status: two Bills defenders listed questionable for the same game is worth tracking together.
REPLACEMENTBUF @ LAR
Christian Benford (CB) is questionable for BUF
Benford practiced in a limited capacity Thursday with a toe injury, which keeps him on track to possibly face the Rams. Paired with DJ Moore's missed practice, Buffalo has injury questions on both sides of the passing game. If Benford ends up out or limited, the Rams receivers get a softer matchup on that side of the field.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ ATL
Za'Darius Smith (DE) is questionable for ATL
Smith (concussion/neck) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Ravens, Will McFadden of the Falcons' official site reports. Reported Oct 9.
PASS RUSHHOU @ TEN
HOU: 3.5 sacks recorded per game to TEN's 2
Houston is averaging three and a half sacks a game through four games, Tennessee two. That is a real gap, though four games is a short sample and the opponents faced aren't listed here. Sack totals that high usually cool off some. If Tennessee's offense ends up in long passing downs, Houston's rush is the side of this matchup most likely to tilt drives.
PASS RUSHPHI @ JAX
JAX: 2.5 sacks recorded per game to PHI's 1
Jacksonville's front is getting home more than twice as often as Philadelphia's, two and a half sacks a game against one, over four games each. Four games is a small window, and the sheet doesn't say whose quarterbacks they faced, so some of that gap may be schedule. Sack rates swing a lot week to week, so expect both numbers to drift. For this game, the pass rush edge sits with the home side, which matters most if Philadelphia falls behind and has to throw.
PRACTICE REPORTPHI @ JAX
Eric Murray
Concussion · Limited practice · Doubtful
PRACTICE REPORTCHI @ GB
Aaron Banks
Knee, Toe · Limited practice · Doubtful
PRACTICE REPORTCHI @ GB
Jacob Monk
Quadricep · Limited practice · Doubtful
PRACTICE REPORTDEN @ LAC
Trey Lance
Groin · Limited practice · Doubtful
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Hamilton Atkins (TE) is out for LOU
TE; condition unspecified. FSU defensive lineman's injury status upgraded for Louisville game — FSU Wire/AOL; published 00:24 UTC; concerns October 9 game (2026-10-09)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Bryten Close (OT) is out for LOU
OL; condition unspecified. FSU defensive lineman's injury status upgraded for Louisville game — FSU Wire/AOL; published 00:24 UTC; concerns October 9 game (2026-10-09)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Sam Secrest (OL) is out for LOU
OL; condition unspecified. FSU defensive lineman's injury status upgraded for Louisville game — FSU Wire/AOL; published 00:24 UTC; concerns October 9 game (2026-10-09)
REPLACEMENTBAL @ ATL
Marlon Humphrey (CB) is questionable for BAL
Marlon Humphrey is questionable for Sunday against the Falcons with both a calf and a hamstring issue. Questionable means a real chance either way, and two soft-tissue injuries at once is a reason for caution. If Humphrey sits, Baltimore loses a cornerback in a game where the Ravens are also without Trey Hendrickson, so wait for the inactive list before betting Atlanta's passing props.
REPLACEMENTCHI @ GB
Jager Burton (C) is questionable for GB
Burton (back) was a limited participant at practice Thursday. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTIND @ PIT
Jalen Ramsey (CB) is questionable for PIT
Ramsey (wrist) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts, Mark Kaboly of 93.7 The Fan Pittsburgh reports. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTIND @ PIT
Charvarius Ward (CB) is questionable for IND
Ward (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Steelers. Reported Oct 10.
REPLACEMENTCLE @ NYJ
Will McDonald IV (DE) is questionable for NYJ
McDonald (calf) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Browns, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports. Reported Oct 10.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ NO
Brian O'Neill (OT) is questionable for MIN
O'Neill (knee) is questionable against the Saints on Sunday. Reported Oct 10.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NE
Dre'Mont Jones (DE) is questionable for NE
Jones (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Raiders. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTISU @ BYU
Drew Surges (S) is out for ISU
Safety listed out for the October 9 BYU game in the October 6 conference availability report reproduced by KSL; the condition is not specified there. BYU will be without two stars on Friday against Iowa State (2026-10-06)
PASS RUSHSF @ SEA
SF: 0 sacks taken per game to SEA's 1.5
SF is at 0 sacks taken per game over 4 games; SEA is at 1.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season SF was at 1.8 over 17 games and SEA at 2.08 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTISU @ BYU
Caden Crawford (DE) is out for ISU
Defensive end listed out for the October 9 BYU game in the October 6 availability report; the condition is not specified. BYU will be without two stars on Friday against Iowa State (2026-10-06)
PASS RUSHHOU @ TEN
TEN: 1.5 sacks taken per game to HOU's 3
Houston is taking 3 sacks a game through 4 games, up from 2.58 last season. Tennessee has cut its number in half, to 1.5 from 3.5. Tennessee's drop over 4 games may not last, while Houston's number looks steadier. Sacks stall drives, so Houston's line is the bigger worry in this divisional game.
REPLACEMENTISU @ BYU
Ka'Mori Moore (DT) is out for ISU
Defensive tackle listed out for the October 9 BYU game in the October 6 availability report; the condition is not specified. BYU will be without two stars on Friday against Iowa State (2026-10-06)
REPLACEMENTTB @ DAL
Tyler Guyton (OT) is questionable for DAL
Guyton had back X-rays after Thursday's loss to Tampa Bay, and they came back looking good. Questionable here reads as day-to-day, and a clean X-ray points toward him being available. If he sits, Dallas needs a fill-in at tackle.
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
TRENCHESMIN @ NO
MIN: 94.5 rushing yards allowed per game to NO's 147.8
MIN is at 94.5 rushing yards allowed per game over 4 games; NO is at 147.8 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 8.
SITUATIONALCIN @ MIA
CIN: 20.8 first downs per game to MIA's 13.3
CIN is at 20.8 first downs per game over 4 games; MIA is at 13.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season CIN was at 20.7 over 17 games and MIA at 17.1 over 17 games.
RED ZONECHI @ GB
CHI: 55.6% red-zone scoring allowed to GB's 85.7%
Chicago has held opponents to scores on 55.6% of red-zone trips over four games, while Green Bay has given up scores on 85.7%. Red-zone rates move on just a handful of possessions, so both numbers can shift fast. Green Bay's figure is the more alarming of the two, and it's at home here. Drives that stall into field goals instead of touchdowns are where a total can swing, so this is worth weighing on scoring props.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSSF @ SEA
SF: 6.97 yards per play to SEA's 5.83
SF is at 6.97 yards per play over 4 games; SEA is at 5.83 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season SF was at 5.49 over 17 games and SEA at 5.98 over 17 games. SF had 4 plays of 20+ yards in its last game, led by 56-yard pass for a touchdown (George Kittle 56 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)); 24-yard pass (Brock Purdy Pass Complete for 24 Yds to Mike Evans); 22-yard run (Deebo Samuel Sr. 22 Yd Rush). SEA had 5 plays of 20+ yards in its last game, led by 28-yard pass (Sam Darnold Pass Complete for 28 Yds to Jaxon Smith-Njigba); 28-yard run for a touchdown (Rashid Shaheed 28 Yd Rush (Jason Myers PAT Failed)); 23-yard pass for a touchdown (Emanuel Wilson 23 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)).
TURNOVERSMIN @ NO
MIN: 1.75 takeaways per game to NO's 0.75
MIN is at 1.75 takeaways per game over 4 games; NO is at 0.75 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 8.
MISMATCHCLE @ NYJ
NYJ: 0.25 turnovers a game to CLE's 1.25
The Jets have turned it over just 0.25 times a game through four games, Cleveland 1.25. Last season the Jets were at 1.35, so that clean start is likely to rise. Cleveland sits near its 1.47 from a year ago. Cleveland has to protect the ball to keep the Jets from steering field position.
TURNOVERSLV @ NE
LV: 2.25 takeaways per game to NE's 1.25
Las Vegas is taking the ball away 2.25 times a game over four games, New England 1.25. Turnovers bounce around a lot, and four games is a small sample, so expect Las Vegas to come back toward the pack. A road defense living on takeaways can swing a game, but it's an unreliable thing to lean on week to week.
TRENCHESBAL @ ATL
ATL: 48.3 rushing yards allowed per game to BAL's 100
Atlanta is allowing just 48.3 rushing yards a game over four games, against Baltimore's 100. That's a stingy number, but four games is short and the sheet doesn't show which offenses Atlanta has faced or whether teams simply chose to throw. A run defense this good usually gives some back. Baltimore is the visitor here, so this is the matchup where Atlanta's run defense gets a real test.
MISMATCHLV @ NE
LV: 1.5 turnovers a game to NE's 2.5
Las Vegas has turned it over 1.5 times a game through four games, New England 2.5. New England was at 0.94 last season, so this is a sharp change that should come down. Over four games, giveaways are a noisy number. If New England keeps handing the ball over, Las Vegas gets short fields, so turnover swings can decide the margin.
SITUATIONALDET @ ARI
DET: 6.77 yards per pass attempt to ARI's 4.75
Detroit gains about two more yards every time it throws than Arizona does. The Lions at 6.77 are near last season's 7.09, so their passing game looks like itself. Arizona was already low at 5.61 last season and has dropped to 4.75 over four games. Expect Detroit to push the ball downfield while the Cardinals need longer, slower drives to score.
TURNOVERSCLE @ NYJ
NYJ: 0.25 turnovers committed per game to CLE's 1.25
The Jets have one giveaway in four games, while Cleveland is giving it away a bit more than once a game. Last season the Jets were at 1.35, so 0.25 is very likely to rise. Cleveland at 1.25 is close to its 1.47 from last season. The Browns' turnover habit looks real; the Jets' clean sheet is four games of good fortune as much as anything.
TURNOVERSTB @ DAL
TB: 1.4 takeaways per game to DAL's 0.4
Tampa Bay is forcing 1.4 turnovers a game over five games; Dallas is at 0.4. Takeaways are among the streakiest numbers in football, and five games won't settle much. Dallas's low total is likely to rise with more games. Tampa's edge in this matchup is real for now, but count on turnover luck evening out rather than staying this lopsided.
P Edge side won; final 24-16
REPLACEMENTLV @ NE
Christian Elliss (LB) is questionable for NE
Elliss (chest) is listed as questionable against the Raiders on Sunday. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ NO
Julian Blackmon (S) is questionable for NO
Blackmon (shoulder) is listed as questionable against the Vikings on Sunday, Emily Leiker of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTCLE @ NYJ
Kingsley Enagbare (LB) is questionable for NYJ
Enagbare (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Browns, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports. Reported Oct 10.
SITUATIONALNYG @ WSH
NYG (3-1) at WSH (1-3), a division game
The Giants have won two straight, yet at +3 points on the year their 3-1 record is built on close games, and their one road trip was a loss. Washington is 1-3 with a -34 margin, though it has split two home games. A four-game sample and a division meeting make this tighter than the records suggest, so the margin numbers matter more than the win column here.
COVERAGEDET @ ARI
ARI: 233.8 passing yards allowed per game to DET's 304
Detroit is giving up 304 passing yards a game over four games, Arizona 233.8. That's a big gap, though passing yards allowed can inflate when a defense plays with a lead and opponents throw to catch up, and the sheet doesn't say which applied. Over four games it may settle. Arizona's passing game at home is the side to look at if Detroit's coverage keeps leaking yards.
REPLACEMENTCHI @ GB
Javon Hargrave (DT) is questionable for GB
Hargrave (toe) is listed as questionable against the Bears on Sunday, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports. Reported Oct 10.
SITUATIONALSF @ SEA
SF (4-0) at SEA (3-1), a division game
Both teams have kept winning and outscoring people, SF by 58 points and SEA by 32, so this is a meeting of two clubs playing well. SF has won all 4 but has played only once on the road, and SEA is 2-0 at home, so the venue splits come from tiny samples. Seattle's winning streak is just 1 game after its loss, while SF arrives with real momentum. In a division game where both sides know each other, the home split and SF's unbeaten run are both thin enough that the overall point margins tell you more.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ ATL
Divine Deablo (LB) is questionable for ATL
Deablo (hamstring) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday's game against the Ravens, Will McFadden of the Falcons' official site reports. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTBUF @ LAR
Ed Oliver (DT) is questionable for BUF
Oliver has a knee injury and did not practice Thursday. A missed session puts his status against the Rams in doubt, and the sheet does not say who takes his snaps on the interior. If he sits, Buffalo's defensive front is thinner, which matters for how you view the Rams' offense in this game.
REPLACEMENTBUF @ LAR
Quentin Lake (S) is questionable for LAR
Lake has a hip injury and did not practice Thursday, which puts him at questionable against Buffalo. Missing Thursday makes his status shakier than the label alone suggests, and Friday's report should settle it. The sheet does not name who replaces him at safety if he sits.
REPLACEMENTBUF @ LAR
Nate Landman (LB) is questionable for LAR
Landman (shoulder) was a limited participant in Friday's practice, Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com reports. Reported Oct 10.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ MIA
Jackson Woodard (LB) is questionable for MIA
Woodard suffered an ankle injury during Sunday's 15-10 loss to the Vikings. Reported Oct 5.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NE
Craig Woodson (S) is questionable for NE
Woodson (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Las Vegas. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NE
Christian Barmore (DT) is questionable for NE
Barmore (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Raiders. Reported Oct 9.
COVERAGETB @ DAL
TB: 5.3 yards per play allowed to DAL's 6.42
TB is at 5.3 yards per play allowed over 5 games; DAL is at 6.42 over 5 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 8.
P Edge side won; final 24-16
SITUATIONALCHI @ GB
CHI (3-1) at GB (2-2), a division game
Chicago is 3-1 with a +47 margin and two straight wins, so the record is backed by real scoring separation. Green Bay sits at 2-2 but is -32 on the year and lost its only home game. Four games is a short run, but the gap in point margin is wide, and in a division game the Bears arrive as the team with the steadier body of work.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ MIA
Bryan Cook (S) is questionable for CIN
Cook (ankle) is listed as questionable against the Dolphins on Sunday, Paul Dehner Jr. of The Athletic reports. Reported Oct 10.
REPLACEMENTDET @ ARI
Walter Nolen III (DT) is questionable for ARI
Walter Nolen III is questionable with a calf injury for Sunday's home game against the Lions, which makes playing time a coin flip until inactives come out. The report does not say who steps in at defensive tackle if Nolen sits. Anyone betting Detroit's run game should check Arizona's final status first.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ JAX
Jonathan Greenard (LB) is questionable for PHI
Greenard (ankle) is questionable for Sunday's game against Jacksonville. Reported Oct 10.
TRENCHESPHI @ JAX
JAX: 74.3 rushing yards allowed per game to PHI's 122
PHI is at 122 rushing yards allowed per game over 4 games; JAX is at 74.3 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 8.
SITUATIONALSF @ SEA
SF: 9.32 yards per pass attempt to SEA's 7.43
SF is at 9.32 yards per pass attempt over 4 games; SEA is at 7.43 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season SF was at 6.9 over 17 games and SEA at 8.01 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTDET @ ARI
DET: 29.8 points per game to ARI's 21.8
DET is at 29.8 points per game over 4 games; ARI is at 21.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season DET was at 28.3 over 17 games and ARI at 20.9 over 17 games.
PRACTICE REPORTCIN @ MIA
Kenneth Grant
Toe · Full practice · Questionable
REPLACEMENTHOU @ TEN
Tank Dell (WR) is ir-r for HOU
Dell is on injured reserve with a designation to return, which means Houston can bring him back to practice, but he has already been ruled out for Sunday at Tennessee as of Oct 9. The issue is his knee, and the sheet gives no timeline beyond this week. For this game, price Houston's passing attack without him and expect the targets he would have seen to spread across the other receivers.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NE
Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR) is ir-r for LV
Thornton (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Patriots, Paul Gutierrez of Raiders.com reports. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTCLE @ NYJ
Tim Patrick (WR) is ir-r for NYJ
Patrick (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Browns. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTNYG @ WSH
Jeremy McNichols (RB) is ir-r for WSH
McNichols (quadriceps) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Giants. Reported Oct 10.
REPLACEMENTCHI @ GB
Savion Williams (WR) is ir-r for GB
Williams (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Bears, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTSF @ SEA
Zach Charbonnet (RB) is pup-r for SEA
Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald said Monday that Charbonnet (knee) won't be activated from the reserve/PUP list in advance of Sunday's game against the 49ers, Gregg Bell of The Tacoma News Tribune reports. Reported Oct 5.
REPLACEMENTSF @ SEA
Irv Charles (WR) is ir-r for SEA
Charles (undisclosed) practiced Wednesday, John Boyle of the team's official site reports. Reported Oct 7.
PRACTICE REPORTBAL @ ATL
Marlon Humphrey
Hamstring, Calf · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTBAL @ ATL
Andrew Vorhees
Foot · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTBAL @ ATL
Zay Flowers
Foot · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTBAL @ ATL
Divine Deablo
Hamstring · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTBAL @ ATL
Jake Matthews
Groin · Full practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTBAL @ ATL
Samson Ebukam
Hamstring · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTBAL @ ATL
Za'Darius Smith
Concussion, Neck · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ SEA
Irv Charles
Knee · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ SEA
Mykel Williams
Knee · Full practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ SEA
Upton Stout
Shoulder · Did not practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ SEA
George Holani
Ribs, Knee · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTDET @ ARI
Karson Sharar
Hamstring · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTDET @ ARI
Walter Nolen III
Calf · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTDET @ ARI
Tyleik Williams
Foot · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTDEN @ LAC
Branson Taylor
Neck · Full practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTDEN @ LAC
Scott Matlock
Foot · Full practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTDEN @ LAC
Charlie Kolar
Forearm · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTDEN @ LAC
Ladd McConkey
Foot · Did not practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTDEN @ LAC
Rodney Shelley
Hamstring · Did not practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTCHI @ GB
Anthony Campbell
Ankle · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTCHI @ GB
Noah Sewell
Achilles · Full practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTCHI @ GB
Kyler Gordon
Calf · Full practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTCHI @ GB
Shemar Turner
Knee · Full practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTCHI @ GB
Caleb Williams
Hamstring · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTCHI @ GB
Javon Hargrave
Toe · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTCHI @ GB
Jager Burton
Back · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Deatrich Wise Jr.
Quadricep · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Jeremy McNichols
Quadricep · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Trey Amos
Ankle · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Terry McLaurin
Hamstring · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTIND @ PIT
Charvarius Ward
Not injury related - resting player, Groin · Full practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTIND @ PIT
Keenan Allen
Not injury related - resting player, Groin · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTIND @ PIT
Jalen Ramsey
Wrist · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTIND @ PIT
Rico Dowdle
Toe · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTIND @ PIT
Darius Slayton
Knee · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTCLE @ NYJ
Will McDonald IV
Calf · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTCLE @ NYJ
Tim Patrick
Groin · Full practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTCLE @ NYJ
Kingsley Enagbare
Knee · Full practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTMIN @ NO
Julian Blackmon
Shoulder · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTMIN @ NO
Christen Miller
Illness · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTMIN @ NO
Jordan Addison
Hamstring · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTMIN @ NO
Barion Brown
Thigh · Full practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTMIN @ NO
Alvin Kamara
Back · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTMIN @ NO
Justin Jefferson
Ankle · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTMIN @ NO
Jaylan Ford
Ankle · Full practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTMIN @ NO
Lorenzo Styles Jr.
Calf · Full practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTMIN @ NO
Ben Yurosek
Ankle · Full practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTMIN @ NO
Michael Jurgens
Elbow · Full practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTMIN @ NO
Brian O'Neill
Knee · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTLV @ NE
Christian Elliss
Chest · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTLV @ NE
Rhamondre Stevenson
Knee · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTLV @ NE
Charles Woods
Shoulder · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTLV @ NE
Craig Woodson
Shoulder · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTLV @ NE
Christian Barmore
Shoulder · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTLV @ NE
Dre'Mont Jones
Shoulder · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTLV @ NE
Morgan Moses
Foot · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTLV @ NE
Ashton Jeanty
Ankle, Foot · Did not practice · Questionable
MISMATCHFSU @ LOU
LOU: 287.4 pass yards a game to FSU's 225
The widest gap between these two is pass yards a game: FSU threw for 225 passing yards a game over 5 games; LOU threw for 287.4 passing yards a game over 5 games this season. Last season FSU was at 253.4 over 12 games and LOU at 220.6 over 13 games.
MISMATCHIND @ PIT
IND: 2 sacks taken a game to PIT's 3.25
Pittsburgh's quarterback has been sacked 3.25 times a game through four games, Indianapolis's 2. Last season Pittsburgh was at 2.38 and Indianapolis at 2.07, so the Colts are steady while Pittsburgh's protection has slipped. Expect Pittsburgh's number to drift back some, but until it does, the Colts' pass rush gets chances at drive-killing negative plays. Stalled Pittsburgh drives can tilt field position.
PRACTICE REPORTHOU @ TEN
Ed Ingram
Illness · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTHOU @ TEN
Joshua Williams
Pectoral · Full practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTHOU @ TEN
David Martin-Robinson
Hamstring · Did not practice · Questionable
PACE & SCRIPTMIN @ NO
NO: 72.8 offensive plays per game to MIN's 59.8
MIN is at 59.8 offensive plays per game over 4 games; NO is at 72.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season MIN was at 56.1 over 17 games and NO at 63.2 over 17 games.
PRACTICE REPORTCIN @ MIA
Colbie Young
Knee · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTCIN @ MIA
Tee Higgins
Groin, Neck · Full practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTCIN @ MIA
Ja'Marr Chase
Concussion · Full practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTCIN @ MIA
Bryan Cook
Ankle · Full practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTCIN @ MIA
Swayze Bozeman
Groin · Full practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTCIN @ MIA
Jaylen Wright
Foot · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTCIN @ MIA
Storm Duck
Knee · Full practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTCIN @ MIA
Jackson Woodard
Ankle · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTHOU @ TEN
M.J. Stewart
Knee · Full practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTHOU @ TEN
Carnell Tate
Back · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTHOU @ TEN
Braden Smith
Foot · Full practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTPHI @ JAX
Jonathan Greenard
Ankle · Did not practice · Questionable
PASS RUSHIND @ PIT
IND: 13.8 sack yards lost per game to PIT's 26.8
IND is at 13.8 sack yards lost per game over 4 games; PIT is at 26.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season IND was at 15.1 over 17 games and PIT at 14.8 over 17 games.
PASS RUSHDEN @ LAC
DEN: 5.8 sack yards lost per game to LAC's 18.8
DEN is at 5.8 sack yards lost per game over 4 games; LAC is at 18.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season DEN was at 9.5 over 17 games and LAC at 21.6 over 17 games.
PRACTICE REPORTHOU @ TEN
Blake Fisher
Illness · Limited practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTHOU @ TEN
Kayden McDonald
Ankle · Full practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTTB @ DAL
Jonathan Mingo
Illness · Did not practice · Questionable
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
QUARTERBACKBAL @ ATL
Lamar Jackson is the projected starting quarterback for BAL
Through 4 games in 2026, Lamar Jackson threw for 967 passing yards, completed 70.8% of his passes and averaged 10.07 yards per attempt. Last season over 13 games he threw for 2549 yards, completed 63.6% and averaged 8.44 yards per attempt, 21-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in. Lamar Jackson is also listed q for this matchup.
COVERAGESF @ SEA
SEA: 144.8 passing yards allowed per game to SF's 209
Seattle is allowing only 144.8 passing yards a game over four games, San Francisco 209. A number that low can come from soft opposing passers or teams that ran more against them, and four games doesn't separate those. Expect some movement up. San Francisco's passing game on the road is where Seattle's coverage gets measured in this one.
STREAKHOU @ TEN
HOU has lost 4 straight
Houston has not won a game yet, and the opponent here is a Tennessee team that also has not won one. One of these streaks ends Sunday, so the 0-4 record tells you less about this matchup than it would against a winning team. Four games is a small sample, and nothing on the sheet says who those losses came against. In a game between two winless sides, the price should come from how each team plays, since both records look the same.
STREAKCIN @ MIA
MIA has lost 4 straight
Miami has lost every game so far, four in a row, and now hosts Cincinnati. The sheet does not say who those losses came against, so you cannot tell yet whether this is a bad team or a hard early schedule. Four games is a small sample. Look at how Miami lost, close games or blowouts, before assuming the streak runs to five.
STREAKMIN @ NO
MIN has won 4 straight
Minnesota has won all four games and goes on the road to New Orleans. The sheet does not show who those wins came against, so it cannot confirm whether the opponents were good ones. Unbeaten teams usually get priced like it, and a four-game run can push a line further than the opponents beaten justify. Check what the spread asks Minnesota to do on the road before paying for the 4-0 start.
STREAKDEN @ LAC
LAC has lost 4 straight
LAC carries a 4-game losing streak into this one, sitting at 0-4 on the season. They face DEN in DEN @ LAC. Current-2026 standings through 2026-10-08.
STREAKSF @ SEA
SF has won 4 straight
SF carries a 4-game winning streak into this one, sitting at 4-0 on the season. They face SEA in SF @ SEA. Current-2026 standings through 2026-10-08.
PRACTICE REPORTHOU @ TEN
Aireontae Ersery
Illness · Did not practice · Questionable
PRACTICE REPORTTB @ DAL
Tyler Smith
Thumb · Full practice · Questionable
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
SITUATIONALFSU @ LOU
LOU: 287.4 team passing yards per game to FSU's 225
Louisville has thrown for 287.4 a game over 5 games, well above its 220.6 last season, so the passing attack has taken a real step. FSU has gone the other way, down to 225 from 253.4. At home, Louisville's best path is through the air, and how FSU's defense handles that volume shapes the game script.
TURNOVERSDET @ ARI
DET: 0 interceptions thrown per game to ARI's 1
DET is at 0 interceptions thrown per game over 4 games; ARI is at 1 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season DET was at 0.47 over 17 games and ARI at 0.65 over 17 games.
PASS RUSHSF @ SEA
SEA: 2.75 sacks recorded per game to SF's 1.5
SF is at 1.5 sacks recorded per game over 4 games; SEA is at 2.75 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 8.
PASS RUSHIND @ PIT
IND: 2 sacks taken per game to PIT's 3.25
IND is at 2 sacks taken per game over 4 games; PIT is at 3.25 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season IND was at 2.07 over 17 games and PIT at 2.38 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTTB @ DAL
DAL: 27.6 points per game to TB's 20
TB is at 20 points per game over 5 games; DAL is at 27.6 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season TB was at 22.4 over 17 games and DAL at 27.7 over 17 games.
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
QUARTERBACKISU @ BYU
Jaylen Raynor is ISU's projected starter
Jaylen Raynor is ISU's projected starting quarterback. Iowa State's October 7 preview discusses Raynor as its quarterback entering the October 9 BYU game and documents his starting experience. The opened preview does not explicitly announce this game's starter, so the designation remains projected. 2026 line: 879 passing yards, 58.0% completions, 7.39 yards per attempt, 5-4 TD-INT over 5 games.
QUARTERBACKISU @ BYU
Bear Bachmeier is BYU's confirmed starter
Bear Bachmeier is BYU's confirmed starting quarterback. The October 8 game-specific depth-chart report lists Bachmeier first at quarterback, ahead of Treyson Bourguet and Enoch Watson. This confirms the published starter designation, not a game-day lineup announcement. 2026 line: 704 passing yards, 64.0% completions, 8.19 yards per attempt, 6-1 TD-INT over 4 games.
RED ZONEMIN @ NO
NO: 3.75 red-zone trips per game to MIN's 2
MIN is at 2 red-zone trips per game over 4 games; NO is at 3.75 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season MIN was at 3 over 17 games and NO at 2.65 over 17 games.
QUARTERBACKFSU @ LOU
Ashton Daniels is FSU's projected starter
Ashton Daniels is FSU's projected starting quarterback. October 8 previews discuss Daniels leading Florida State's offense against Louisville; retrieved sources do not provide an explicit game-specific starting announcement. 2026 line: 1111 passing yards, 60.0% completions, 9.66 yards per attempt, 6-6 TD-INT over 5 games.
QUARTERBACKFSU @ LOU
Lincoln Kienholz is LOU's confirmed starter
Lincoln Kienholz is LOU's confirmed starting quarterback. October 9 reporting identifies him as Louisville's starting quarterback and lists him probable for Florida State; participation remains conditional on availability. 2026 line: 1394 passing yards, 69.1% completions, 10.03 yards per attempt, 9-1 TD-INT over 5 games.
QUARTERBACKIOWA @ WASH
Jeremy Hecklinski is IOWA's projected starter
Jeremy Hecklinski is IOWA's projected starting quarterback. October 8 reporting says Hecklinski is trending toward starting at Washington because Hank Brown is a game-time decision. The starter remains unconfirmed. 2026 line: 208 passing yards, 56.3% completions, 6.50 yards per attempt, 1-1 TD-INT over 3 games.
QUARTERBACKIOWA @ WASH
Demond Williams Jr. is WASH's projected starter
Demond Williams Jr. is WASH's projected starting quarterback. The October 8 Iowa game preview discusses Williams as Washington's quarterback and planned offensive focal point; it does not explicitly confirm the game-day starter. 2026 line: 1295 passing yards, 67.5% completions, 7.94 yards per attempt, 8-3 TD-INT over 5 games.
TEAM RECORDSF @ SEA
NFC WEST game: SF 2-0, SEA 1-0 in the division
These two share the NFC WEST. SF is 2-0 against it, SEA is 1-0. Current-2026 standings through 2026-10-08.
PACE & SCRIPTPHI @ JAX
JAX: 26 points per game to PHI's 18.8
PHI is at 18.8 points per game over 4 games; JAX is at 26 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season PHI was at 22.3 over 17 games and JAX at 27.9 over 17 games.
COVERAGEMIN @ NO
MIN: 4.93 yards per play allowed to NO's 5.9
MIN is at 4.93 yards per play allowed over 4 games; NO is at 5.9 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 8.
MISMATCHWSU @ USU
USU: 40.9% on third down to WSU's 27.1%
The widest gap between these two is third down: WSU's offense converted 27.1% of its own third downs over 5 games; USU's offense converted 40.9% of its own third downs over 5 games this season. Last season WSU was at 38.1% over 13 games and USU at 34.5% over 13 games.
PACE & SCRIPTHOU @ TEN
HOU: 21 points per game to TEN's 13.8
HOU is at 21 points per game over 4 games; TEN is at 13.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season HOU was at 23.8 over 17 games and TEN at 16.7 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALNYG @ WSH
NYG: 43.4% third-down conversion rate to WSH's 31.6%
The Giants convert 43.4% of third downs, close to last season's 40.2%, so that looks like who they are. Washington has fallen to 31.6% over four games after 37.6% last season, which likely rises some. Right now the Giants are better at extending drives, and Washington's offense stalls more often on the money down.
TEAM RECORDDEN @ LAC
AFC WEST game: DEN 0-1, LAC 0-1 in the division
These two share the AFC WEST. DEN is 0-1 against it, LAC is 0-1. Current-2026 standings through 2026-10-08.
SITUATIONALBAL @ ATL
BAL: 8.85 yards per pass attempt to ATL's 7.15
BAL is at 8.85 yards per pass attempt over 4 games; ATL is at 7.15 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season BAL was at 6.69 over 17 games and ATL at 6.21 over 17 games.
TEAM RECORDCHI @ GB
NFC NORTH game: CHI 0-1, GB 0-1 in the division
These two share the NFC NORTH. CHI is 0-1 against it, GB is 0-1. Current-2026 standings through 2026-10-08.
TEAM RECORDWSU @ USU
Pac-12 game: WSU 0-1, USU 0-1 in conference
Both teams are 0-1 in Pac-12 play, which means each has played one league game and lost it. One game says almost nothing about how either team wins or loses, so this record should move fast. Expect a better read once both have a few more conference games.
TEAM RECORDIOWA @ WASH
Big Ten game: IOWA 1-1, WASH 0-2 in conference
Washington is 0-2 in Big Ten play and Iowa is 1-1, so the Huskies are still looking for a first conference win. Two games is a small sample, and nothing here says who Washington lost to or by how much, so the 0-2 says more about the schedule so far than about who they are. Washington is at home, and an early conference hole can mean a motivated team. Weigh the records lightly and look at the opponents behind them.
TEAM RECORDISU @ BYU
Big 12 game: ISU 1-1, BYU 2-0 in conference
BYU has won both of its Big 12 games, while Iowa State has split two. Two games is a thin sample for either team, and the record does not say who they played or how close the games were. That makes it too early to call BYU a clear step ahead in the league. For a bettor, BYU hosts with the cleaner start, and the useful question is whether its two wins came against teams comparable to Iowa State.
TEAM RECORDFSU @ LOU
ACC game: FSU 1-1, LOU 1-2 in conference
These two share the ACC. FSU is 1-1 against it, LOU is 1-2. 2026 standings through 2026-10-09.
TEAM RECORDNYG @ WSH
NFC EAST game: NYG 1-0, WSH 0-2 in the division
These two share the NFC EAST. NYG is 1-0 against it, WSH is 0-2. Current-2026 standings through 2026-10-08.
SITUATIONALISU @ BYU
ISU: 42.9% fourth-down conversion rate to BYU's 0%
BYU hasn't converted a fourth down in 4 games after hitting 58.1% last season, which points to a handful of tries rather than a broken short-yardage offense. ISU is at 42.9%, well off its 67.9% from last season. Both numbers rest on few attempts and should move toward last season's marks, so neither side's fourth-down rate tells you much yet.
REPLACEMENTNYG @ WSH
Jaxson Dart (QB) is on injured reserve for NYG
Dart recently underwent surgery to repair the meniscus and MCL in his left knee, Dan Duggan of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 30.
PASS RUSHSF @ SEA
SF: 0 sack yards lost per game to SEA's 12
SF is at 0 sack yards lost per game over 4 games; SEA is at 12 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season SF was at 10.7 over 17 games and SEA at 14.3 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTHOU @ TEN
HOU: 29:12 time of possession per game to TEN's 24:19
HOU is at 29:12 time of possession per game over 4 games; TEN is at 24:19 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season HOU was at 31:49 over 17 games and TEN at 29:08 over 17 games.
COVERAGEPHI @ JAX
PHI: 222 passing yards allowed per game to JAX's 280.3
PHI is at 222 passing yards allowed per game over 4 games; JAX is at 280.3 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 8.
SITUATIONALWSU @ USU
USU: 40.9% third-down conversion rate to WSU's 27.1%
Utah State converts 40.9% of third downs over 5 games, up from 34.5% last season, while Washington State has slid to 27.1% from 38.1%. Washington State's drop is steep enough that some bounce-back is likely. At home, Utah State should have the edge in sustaining drives and holding the ball.
SITUATIONALDEN @ LAC
DEN (2-2) at LAC (0-4), a division game
Neither team has done anything away from or at its own stadium: Denver is 0-2 on the road and the Chargers are 0-2 at home during an 0-4 start. The Chargers' -39 margin is worse, but Denver at -20 is no juggernaut at 2-2. This is a division game between two flawed teams, and the home and road splits suggest neither side has earned trust as a favorite.
MISMATCHBUF @ LAR
LAR: 290.3 pass yards a game to BUF's 247.3
The Rams are throwing for 290.3 yards a game through four games, Buffalo for 247.3. The Rams were at 268.1 last season, so this is a slightly better version of a known passing offense, while Buffalo is up from 216.6. Both teams can move the ball through the air. If the passing games carry over, this sets up a game where both offenses trade throws.
TURNOVERSTB @ DAL
DAL: 1 turnover committed per game to TB's 1.8
TB is at 1.8 turnovers committed per game over 5 games; DAL is at 1 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season TB was at 0.94 over 17 games and DAL at 1.24 over 17 games.
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
PACE & SCRIPTHOU @ TEN
HOU @ TEN carries a 37.5 market total
The market expects points to come slowly here: at 37.5, this game sits 6 below the 43.5 median of the 15 totals posted on the slate. A number that low says books see long drives, punts and field goals more than quick touchdowns. For it to crack, one side has to hit explosive plays or hand the other short fields with turnovers. A low total also means a single early touchdown swings the game script more than it would in a typical game.
PASS RUSHHOU @ TEN
TEN: 9.3 sack yards lost per game to HOU's 20.5
HOU is at 20.5 sack yards lost per game over 4 games; TEN is at 9.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season HOU was at 20.8 over 17 games and TEN at 26.1 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTTB @ DAL
TB: 31:52 time of possession per game to DAL's 27:19
TB is at 31:52 time of possession per game over 5 games; DAL is at 27:19 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season TB was at 31:53 over 17 games and DAL at 30:48 over 17 games.
P Edge side won; final 24-16
REPLACEMENTHOU @ TEN
Aireontae Ersery (OT) is questionable for HOU
Houston lists Ersery, a tackle, as questionable for the game at Tennessee. The report doesn't specify the injury or his practice status. If he can't go, the Texans would need a backup on the offensive line.
REPLACEMENTBUF @ LAR
Landon Jackson (DE) is questionable for BUF
BUF lists Landon Jackson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ ATL
Jake Matthews (OT) is questionable for ATL
ATL lists Jake Matthews as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 10.
REPLACEMENTIND @ PIT
Will Mallory (TE) is ir-r for IND
Mallory (thumb) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Steelers. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ NO
Ben Yurosek (TE) is ir-r for MIN
Yurosek (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Saints. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NE
Charles Woods (CB) is questionable for NE
NE lists Charles Woods as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 10.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NE
Morgan Moses (OT) is questionable for NE
NE lists Morgan Moses as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 7.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ TEN
Blake Fisher (OT) is questionable for HOU
HOU lists Blake Fisher as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 8.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSPHI @ JAX
JAX: 5.63 yards per play to PHI's 4.75
Jacksonville gains nearly a yard more per snap than Philadelphia through four games. Both teams sat at 5.27 last season, so the Eagles' dip to 4.75 and the Jaguars' rise to 5.63 are both four-game moves. Jacksonville had five plays of 20 or more last game, Philadelphia had none. The gap may narrow, but the Jaguars currently have the more explosive offense.
TRENCHESHOU @ TEN
HOU: 83.8 rushing yards allowed per game to TEN's 122.8
Houston is allowing 83.8 rushing yards a game over four games, Tennessee 122.8. Four games is a small sample, and run totals depend on game script, but Houston has the clearly better run defense so far. If Tennessee leans on the ground at home, Houston's front looks better equipped, and that shapes how much Tennessee can control the clock.
TRENCHESCIN @ MIA
MIA: 4.52 yards per rush attempt to CIN's 3.42
CIN is at 3.42 yards per rush attempt over 4 games; MIA is at 4.52 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season CIN was at 4.14 over 17 games and MIA at 4.64 over 17 games.
COVERAGESF @ SEA
SEA: 3.93 yards per play allowed to SF's 4.82
SF is at 4.82 yards per play allowed over 4 games; SEA is at 3.93 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 8.
COVERAGEDEN @ LAC
LAC: 36.5% third downs allowed to DEN's 47.5%
The Chargers are letting opponents convert 36.5% of third downs over four games; Denver is at 47.5%. Third-down rates shift a lot on a few snaps, so four games is a small read. Denver allowing nearly half its third downs is the bigger concern on the road. Long drives for the Chargers would keep Denver's offense off the field, which matters for the total.
REPLACEMENTSF @ SEA
Upton Stout (CB) is questionable for SF
SF lists Upton Stout as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 10.
REPLACEMENTDEN @ LAC
Rodney Shelley (CB) is questionable for LAC
LAC lists Rodney Shelley as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ ATL
Samson Ebukam (DE) is questionable for ATL
ATL lists Samson Ebukam as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 8.
PACE & SCRIPTHOU @ TEN
TEN: 20.8 points allowed per game to HOU's 27.3
HOU is at 27.3 points allowed per game over 4 games; TEN is at 20.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season HOU was at 17.4 over 17 games and TEN at 28.1 over 17 games.
RED ZONELV @ NE
LV: 3.75 red-zone trips per game to NE's 2.25
LV is at 3.75 red-zone trips per game over 4 games; NE is at 2.25 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season LV was at 2.12 over 17 games and NE at 3.71 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSDET @ ARI
ARI: 1.75 takeaways per game to DET's 1
Arizona is forcing 1.75 takeaways a game over four games, Detroit one. Four games of turnovers says little about what comes next, and these numbers tend to even out. Arizona has the edge at home on paper, but it's a thin one to rely on.
TURNOVERSHOU @ TEN
HOU: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to TEN's 1.25
HOU is at 0.5 turnovers committed per game over 4 games; TEN is at 1.25 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season HOU was at 0.71 over 17 games and TEN at 1.12 over 17 games.
STREAKDET @ ARI
ARI has lost 3 straight
Arizona won its opener and has lost three straight since, falling to 1-3, and now hosts Detroit. The sheet does not show who beat Arizona, so you cannot tell whether those losses came against strong teams. Three games is a short slide. Being at home is the factor that can be checked here, so see how much the line gives Arizona for it before leaning on the streak.
SITUATIONALDEN @ LAC
DEN: 46.8 penalty yards per game to LAC's 72.3
DEN is at 46.8 penalty yards per game over 4 games; LAC is at 72.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season DEN was at 67.6 over 17 games and LAC at 46.3 over 17 games.
TRENCHESSF @ SEA
SF: 4.85 yards per rush attempt to SEA's 3.78
SF is at 4.85 yards per rush attempt over 4 games; SEA is at 3.78 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season SF was at 3.81 over 17 games and SEA at 4.17 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSDEN @ LAC
LAC: 1.75 takeaways per game to DEN's 1
The Chargers are forcing 1.75 takeaways a game over four games, Denver one. Turnovers are among the noisiest stats in football, and the gap here is small enough to close in a game or two. The Chargers hold the edge at home for now, but don't lean on it too heavily.
TURNOVERSNYG @ WSH
NYG: 2 takeaways per game to WSH's 1.25
The Giants are forcing two takeaways a game over four games, Washington 1.25. Takeaway numbers are volatile and four games is not much, so expect the Giants to drift back. A road team leaning on turnovers can steal a game, but it's a shaky thing to build a view around.
COVERAGEIND @ PIT
PIT: 209.5 passing yards allowed per game to IND's 261.3
Pittsburgh is allowing 209.5 passing yards a game over four games, Indianapolis 261.3. Passing yards allowed swing with game script and the quality of opposing quarterbacks, which this sheet doesn't show. Four games leaves room for both to move. Pittsburgh at home has the steadier pass defense heading in, which tilts passing yardage expectations toward the Steelers' side.
PACE & SCRIPTIND @ PIT
IND: 25.5 points per game to PIT's 19.3
IND is at 25.5 points per game over 4 games; PIT is at 19.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season IND was at 27.4 over 17 games and PIT at 23.4 over 17 games.
PASS RUSHTB @ DAL
DAL: 6.6 sack yards lost per game to TB's 17
TB is at 17 sack yards lost per game over 5 games; DAL is at 6.6 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season TB was at 15.9 over 17 games and DAL at 16 over 17 games.
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
TURNOVERSSF @ SEA
SF: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to SEA's 1.25
SF is at 0.5 turnovers committed per game over 4 games; SEA is at 1.25 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season SF was at 1.29 over 17 games and SEA at 1.65 over 17 games.
STREAKCLE @ NYJ
CLE has won 3 straight
Cleveland lost its opener and has won the three games since, so it comes into New York at 3-1. The Jets have lost three straight, so a team on the way up meets one on the way down. Four games is a short season so far, and the sheet does not list who Cleveland beat. The line will likely lean on the two streaks, so check whether it already prices in what those records suggest.
STREAKCLE @ NYJ
NYJ has lost 3 straight
The Jets won their opener and have lost three straight, so they are 1-3 at home against a Cleveland team that has won three in a row. Four games is a small sample, and the sheet does not show who those losses came against. Teams on opposite streaks tend to get priced off momentum, which is where a home underdog can be undervalued.
RED ZONESF @ SEA
SF: 45.5% red-zone scoring allowed to SEA's 66.7%
SF is at 45.5% red-zone scoring allowed over 4 games; SEA is at 66.7% over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 8.
TURNOVERSNYG @ WSH
WSH: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to NYG's 1.25
NYG is at 1.25 turnovers committed per game over 4 games; WSH is at 0.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season NYG was at 1 over 17 games and WSH at 1.35 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSDET @ ARI
DET: 0.25 turnovers committed per game to ARI's 1
DET is at 0.25 turnovers committed per game over 4 games; ARI is at 1 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season DET was at 0.88 over 17 games and ARI at 1.24 over 17 games.
AFTER GARYFSU @ LOU
FSU +3.5 → +4.5
Gary's number was 3.5; the same book now shows 4.5.
TURNOVERSFSU @ LOU
LOU: 1.8 takeaways per game to FSU's 1
Louisville's defense has forced 1.8 takeaways a game over five games, while Florida State's sits at 1. Turnover numbers swing hard from game to game, and the sheet doesn't show which offences handed these over, so five games is not much to lean on. For a bettor, the edge is modest and fragile. It matters most in a close game, where one extra short field can flip a number.
TURNOVERSIOWA @ WASH
WASH: 1.8 takeaways per game to IOWA's 1
Washington has forced 1.8 takeaways a game over five games, compared with 1 for Iowa. Takeaways are one of the noisiest stats in football, and nothing here says how careless the offences Washington faced were. Expect both numbers to drift toward each other as the season goes on. In this home spot, a turnover edge helps Washington most if the game is tight and low scoring.
COVERAGEHOU @ TEN
TEN: 209.8 passing yards allowed per game to HOU's 260
Tennessee is allowing 209.8 passing yards a game over four games, Houston 260. The sheet doesn't show who each has faced or how often they were protecting leads, and four games is a short run. Houston's pass defense has been the leakier one, which puts Tennessee's passing game at home in a decent spot.
COVERAGEBAL @ ATL
BAL: 215.3 passing yards allowed per game to ATL's 264.8
Baltimore allows 215.3 passing yards a game, and Atlanta allows 264.8, so the Ravens' secondary has been the tighter unit through four games. Pass yardage depends heavily on game script: teams trailing throw more, and teams protecting a lead give up garbage yards. With only four games, think about whether the Ravens throw comfortably against an Atlanta defense that has given up more in the air.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ JAX
Tank Bigsby (RB) is on injured reserve for PHI
The Eagles placed Bigsby (abdomen) on injured reserve Tuesday, Zach Berman of The Athletic reports. Reported Oct 6.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ TEN
Braden Smith (OT) is ir-r for HOU
Smith (foot) was a full participant in Thursday's practice. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ TEN
Joshua Williams (CB) is ir-r for TEN
The Titans opened Williams' (pectoral) 21-day practice window Wednesday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports. Reported Oct 8.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ MIA
Swayze Bozeman (LB) is questionable for CIN
CIN lists Swayze Bozeman as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ MIA
Storm Duck (CB) is pup-r for MIA
Duck (knee) practiced in full Thursday. Reported Oct 8.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NE
A.J. Brown (WR) is on injured reserve for NE
Brown (ankle) was seen in the locker room Wednesday without a noticeable limp, Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports. Reported Oct 7.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ NO
Michael Jurgens (C) is ir-r for MIN
The Vikings designated Jurgens (elbow) for return from injured reserve Wednesday. Reported Oct 8.
REPLACEMENTNYG @ WSH
Braxton Berrios (WR) is on injured reserve for NYG
The Giants placed Berrios (foot) on their injured reserve list Wednesday, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports. Reported Oct 7.
REPLACEMENTNYG @ WSH
Deatrich Wise Jr. (DE) is pup-r for WSH
Wise (quadriceps) had his 21-day practice window opened Wednesday. Reported Oct 7.
REPLACEMENTNYG @ WSH
Jaylin Lane (WR) is on injured reserve for WSH
The Commanders placed Lane (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Oct 6.
REPLACEMENTCHI @ GB
Kyler Gordon (CB) is pup-r for CHI
Gordon (calf) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday's game against the Packers. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTCHI @ GB
Micah Parsons (DE) is pup-r for GB
Parsons (knee), per head coach Matt LaFleur, will not practice this week, Weston Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports. Reported Oct 5.
REPLACEMENTCHI @ GB
Anthony Campbell (DT) is questionable for GB
GB lists Anthony Campbell as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.
REPLACEMENTDEN @ LAC
Pat Bryant (WR) is on injured reserve for DEN
Bryant (ankle) was placed on the Broncos' injured reserve Friday. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTDET @ ARI
Cade Mays (C) is ir-r for DET
Detroit designated Mays to return from injured reserve with his wrist injury Wednesday, which opens his practice window. A designation means he's working back, and it does not by itself mean he plays at Arizona. Look for whether the Lions actually activate him before the game.
REPLACEMENTDET @ ARI
Tyleik Williams (DT) is questionable for DET
DET lists Tyleik Williams as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 7.
REPLACEMENTDET @ ARI
Karson Sharar (LB) is questionable for ARI
ARI lists Karson Sharar as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 8.
REPLACEMENTSF @ SEA
Christian Kirk (WR) is ir-r for SF
Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Friday that the 49ers could open Kirk's (calf) practice window to return from injured reserve in two weeks, Matt Barrows of The Athletic reports. Reported Oct 2.
REPLACEMENTSF @ SEA
Jadarian Price (RB) is on injured reserve for SEA
Price (chest) was placed on injured reserve Saturday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. Reported Oct 3.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ ATL
Ja'Kobi Lane (WR) is on injured reserve for BAL
Ravens coach Jesse Minter said Friday that Lane (wrist) is "doing really well" and "has put himself in a great position to be ready to roll when the time permits." Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTBUF @ LAR
Josaiah Stewart (LB) is questionable for LAR
LAR lists Josaiah Stewart as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTBUF @ LAR
Grant Stuard (LB) is questionable for LAR
LAR lists Grant Stuard as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 9.
PACE & SCRIPTHOU @ TEN
HOU: 63.5 offensive plays per game to TEN's 53.8
HOU is at 63.5 offensive plays per game over 4 games; TEN is at 53.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season HOU was at 64 over 17 games and TEN at 59.1 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTCIN @ MIA
CIN: 62.3 offensive plays per game to MIA's 52.5
CIN is at 62.3 offensive plays per game over 4 games; MIA is at 52.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season CIN was at 62.2 over 17 games and MIA at 55.8 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTBUF @ LAR
LAR: 20.8 points allowed per game to BUF's 26.8
Buffalo is allowing 26.8 points a game through four games, up from 21.5 last season. The Rams at 20.8 match last season's 20.4, so their defense looks like itself. Buffalo's number could settle back with more games, but right now the Bills' defense gives up more, and that matters against the Rams' pass-heavy attack.
PASS RUSHLV @ NE
LV: 3 sacks recorded per game to NE's 2
Las Vegas is averaging three sacks a game over four games, New England two. Sack rates are streaky and four games is small, so Las Vegas may cool off. If New England falls behind at home and has to throw, the Raiders' rush becomes the part of this game most likely to stall drives.
PASS RUSHNYG @ WSH
WSH: 1.75 sacks recorded per game to NYG's 0.75
Washington's pass rush is getting home 1.75 times a game while the Giants are at 0.75, so one of these fronts creates pressure and the other mostly hasn't. Four games is a small sample, and with no breakdown of which quarterbacks they faced, some of that gap could come from schedule. For this game, the question is whether the Giants' quarterback has time, which matters for sack and passing props more than for the side.
PRACTICE REPORTHOU @ TEN
Jadeveon Clowney
Did not practice
PRACTICE REPORTHOU @ TEN
Trent Brown
Did not practice
PRACTICE REPORTCIN @ MIA
B.J. Hill
Did not practice
PRACTICE REPORTCIN @ MIA
Dexter Lawrence II
Did not practice
PRACTICE REPORTIND @ PIT
DeForest Buckner
Did not practice
PRACTICE REPORTDEN @ LAC
Pat Bryant
Ankle · Did not practice
PRACTICE REPORTDEN @ LAC
Rashawn Slater
Ankle · Did not practice
PRACTICE REPORTBAL @ ATL
Durham Smythe
Achilles · Did not practice
PRACTICE REPORTBAL @ ATL
Calais Campbell
Did not practice
PRACTICE REPORTBUF @ LAR
DJ Moore
Shoulder - AC Joint · Did not practice
PRACTICE REPORTBUF @ LAR
Dee Alford
Ankle · Did not practice
PRACTICE REPORTBUF @ LAR
Ed Oliver
Knee · Did not practice
PRACTICE REPORTBUF @ LAR
Josaiah Stewart
Groin · Did not practice
PRACTICE REPORTBUF @ LAR
Grant Stuard
Hamstring · Did not practice
PRACTICE REPORTBUF @ LAR
Quentin Lake
Hip · Did not practice
SITUATIONALCLE @ NYJ
CLE has 3 more days of rest
Cleveland gets 8 days between games and the Jets get 5, so the Browns arrive with an extra few practice days and the Jets have to prep on the road schedule's tightest normal turnaround. A short week usually means a lighter practice load, a simpler game plan and less time for banged-up players to heal. That gap is fixed by the calendar, so it holds. For a bettor, it is a reason to check the Jets' injury report closely late in the week.
SITUATIONALIND @ PIT
PIT has 3 more days of rest
Pittsburgh is at home on 8 days of rest while Indianapolis comes in on 5, so the Steelers had more time to heal and game plan. Teams on a short week tend to trim practice and lean on what they already do well, with fewer wrinkles. The rest edge is set by the schedule and will not move. Bettors can use it as a tiebreaker in a close read, and watch whether Colts players listed as limited actually suit up.
SITUATIONALBUF @ LAR
BUF: 53.3% third-down conversion rate to LAR's 43.1%
BUF is at 53.3% third-down conversion rate over 4 games; LAR is at 43.1% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season BUF was at 44.8% over 17 games and LAR at 39.6% over 17 games.
SITUATIONALPHI @ JAX
PHI (2-2) at JAX (3-1)
PHI is 2-2, -18 points on the year, has lost 2 straight this season. JAX is 3-1, +51 points on the year, has won 2 straight this season. PHI is 1-1 on the road; JAX is 2-0 at home.
SITUATIONALCIN @ MIA
CIN (2-2) at MIA (0-4)
MIA is 0-4 and -55, so the winless record has come with lopsided losses. CIN has lost 2 straight but is still +12 on the year, which suggests its first two wins came by healthy margins. MIA is 0-1 at home, so there is only one game of home evidence. The point margins make MIA look as bad as its record, while CIN's skid looks more like a two-game dip than a collapse.
SITUATIONALLV @ NE
LV (3-1) at NE (2-2)
Las Vegas is 3-1 with a +31 margin and has won both road games, though it lost last time out. New England is 2-2 at -12 and won its only home game. One home game is not a home-field read, so the Raiders' road form and margin carry more weight in sizing up this spot.
SITUATIONALMIN @ NO
MIN (4-0) at NO (1-3)
Minnesota is 4-0 with four straight wins, 2-0 on the road, and +35 on the year. New Orleans is 1-3, has lost two straight, and is 0-2 at home with a -23 margin. Four games is early, but every split here favors the Vikings, so the question for a bettor is price, since the market will know it too.
TRENCHESCIN @ MIA
MIA: 104 rushing yards per game to CIN's 74.3
CIN is at 74.3 rushing yards per game over 4 games; MIA is at 104 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season CIN was at 93.6 over 17 games and MIA at 120.2 over 17 games.
TRENCHESCHI @ GB
CHI: 102.5 rushing yards allowed per game to GB's 139.3
Chicago gives up 102.5 rushing yards a game, and Green Bay's defense gives up 139.3, so the Bears' run defense has held up better so far. That is four games with no read on the opponents, so it can move quickly. If Chicago commits to the run at Lambeau, the matchup favors them on paper, and that is the angle to weigh for Bears rushing props and game script.
RED ZONEBUF @ LAR
BUF: 68.8% red-zone scoring rate to LAR's 53.3%
BUF is at 68.8% red-zone scoring rate over 4 games; LAR is at 53.3% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season BUF was at 66.2% over 17 games and LAR at 63.2% over 17 games.
SITUATIONALIOWA @ WASH
IOWA: 49.4 penalty yards per game to WASH's 77.8
IOWA is at 49.4 penalty yards per game over 5 games; WASH is at 77.8 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season IOWA was at 30.1 over 13 games and WASH at 55.3 over 13 games.
PACE & SCRIPTBUF @ LAR
LAR: 69 offensive plays per game to BUF's 59.5
BUF is at 59.5 offensive plays per game over 4 games; LAR is at 69 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season BUF was at 63.6 over 17 games and LAR at 63.9 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSDEN @ LAC
DEN: 0.75 interceptions thrown per game to LAC's 1.5
DEN is at 0.75 interceptions thrown per game over 4 games; LAC is at 1.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season DEN was at 0.65 over 17 games and LAC at 0.82 over 17 games.
RED ZONELV @ NE
NE: 58.3% red-zone scoring allowed to LV's 76.9%
LV is at 76.9% red-zone scoring allowed over 4 games; NE is at 58.3% over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 8.
PACE & SCRIPTFSU @ LOU
FSU: 21.6 points allowed per game to LOU's 29.2
FSU is at 21.6 points allowed per game over 5 games; LOU is at 29.2 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season FSU was at 22 over 12 games and LOU at 21.2 over 13 games.
RED ZONEDET @ ARI
DET: 72.2% red-zone scoring rate to ARI's 57.1%
DET is at 72.2% red-zone scoring rate over 4 games; ARI is at 57.1% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season DET was at 62.5% over 17 games and ARI at 54.1% over 17 games.
SITUATIONALIOWA @ WASH
IOWA: 40.3% third-down conversion rate to WASH's 29%
IOWA is at 40.3% third-down conversion rate over 5 games; WASH is at 29% over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season IOWA was at 43.5% over 13 games and WASH at 50.3% over 13 games.
SITUATIONALDET @ ARI
DET: 24.5 first downs per game to ARI's 19.8
DET is at 24.5 first downs per game over 4 games; ARI is at 19.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season DET was at 20.4 over 17 games and ARI at 19.5 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALIND @ PIT
IND: 26.3 penalty yards per game to PIT's 49.5
IND is at 26.3 penalty yards per game over 4 games; PIT is at 49.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season IND was at 51.2 over 17 games and PIT at 47.2 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTDET @ ARI
Brian Branch (S) is pup-r for DET
Branch (Achilles) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Cardinals. Reported Oct 10.
REPLACEMENTCLE @ NYJ
Kalia Davis (DT) is ir-r for CLE
The Browns opened Davis' (quadriceps) 21-day practice window Tuesday. Reported Oct 6.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ NO
Jaylan Ford (LB) is ir-r for NO
The Saints designated Ford (ankle) for return to practice from injured reserve Wednesday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports. Reported Oct 8.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ MIA
Kenneth Grant (DT) is ir-r for MIA
The Dolphins opened Grant's 21-day practice window Wednesday, and he was a limited participant in the team's first Week 5 session in his return from a toe injury. Reported Oct 7.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ TEN
Ed Ingram (G) is questionable for HOU
HOU lists Ed Ingram as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 8.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ TEN
Kayden McDonald (DT) is ir-r for HOU
McDonald (ankle) was a full participant in Thursday's practice. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ TEN
M.J. Stewart (S) is pup-r for HOU
Stewart (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Tennessee. Reported Oct 9.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSTB @ DAL
DAL: 5.76 yards per play to TB's 5.02
Dallas gains about three-quarters of a yard more per play than Tampa Bay over five games. Dallas at 5.76 is a bit under its 5.96 last season, and the Bucs at 5.02 are near their 5.12. Both look close to who they were, so the gap has a decent chance of holding.
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
SITUATIONALLV @ NE
LV: 250 team passing yards per game to NE's 213.8
LV is at 250 team passing yards per game over 4 games; NE is at 213.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season LV was at 167.7 over 17 games and NE at 250.5 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALHOU @ TEN
HOU: 20.3 first downs per game to TEN's 15.8
HOU is at 20.3 first downs per game over 4 games; TEN is at 15.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season HOU was at 19 over 17 games and TEN at 15.4 over 17 games.
TRENCHESSF @ SEA
SF: 137.3 rushing yards per game to SEA's 110.3
SF is at 137.3 rushing yards per game over 4 games; SEA is at 110.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season SF was at 106.9 over 17 games and SEA at 123.3 over 17 games.
COVERAGECHI @ GB
GB: 4.97 yards per play allowed to CHI's 5.68
CHI is at 5.68 yards per play allowed over 4 games; GB is at 4.97 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 8.
HEAD-TO-HEADCHI @ GB
CHI lead the series with GB since 2025
CHI has taken 2 of the last 3. Jan 10, 2026: GB 27 at CHI 31 (playoffs). Dec 20, 2025: GB 16 at CHI 22. Dec 7, 2025: CHI 21 at GB 28.
HEAD-TO-HEADSF @ SEA
SEA lead the series with SF since 2025
SEA has taken 2 of the last 3. Jan 17, 2026: SF 6 at SEA 41 (playoffs). Jan 3, 2026: SEA 13 at SF 3. Sep 7, 2025: SF 17 at SEA 13.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSBAL @ ATL
BAL: 6.58 yards per play to ATL's 5.88
Baltimore gains about 0.7 more yards per snap than Atlanta through four games. Both teams are up from last season, the Ravens from 5.92 and the Falcons from 5.38. Four games inflates efficiency swings, so both may come down some. Baltimore is the side more likely to move the ball efficiently.
SITUATIONALDET @ ARI
DET (2-2) at ARI (1-3)
Detroit is 2-2 at -8 but 0-2 on the road, so its record leans on home results. Arizona has lost three straight and sits at -30, with one home game, a loss. The Lions' road split makes them a shakier traveler than the overall record suggests, and that is the number to weigh in this spot.
RED ZONEBAL @ ATL
BAL: 3.75 red-zone trips per game to ATL's 2.5
BAL is at 3.75 red-zone trips per game over 4 games; ATL is at 2.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season BAL was at 3.47 over 17 games and ATL at 2.94 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTIND @ PIT
DeShon Elliott (S) is ir-r for PIT
Elliott (knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts, Mark Kaboly of 93.7 The Fan Pittsburgh reports. Reported Oct 9.
PACE & SCRIPTISU @ BYU
BYU: 14.3 points allowed per game to ISU's 21.2
ISU is at 21.2 points allowed per game over 5 games; BYU is at 14.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season ISU was at 20.2 over 12 games and BYU at 19.1 over 14 games.
SITUATIONALBUF @ LAR
BUF: 75% fourth-down conversion rate to LAR's 50%
BUF is at 75% fourth-down conversion rate over 4 games; LAR is at 50% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season BUF was at 59.4% over 17 games and LAR at 66.7% over 17 games.
TURNOVERSWSU @ USU
WSU: 1.8 turnovers committed per game to USU's 2.4
Utah State is giving the ball away 2.4 times a game over 5 games, nearly triple its 0.85 from last season. Washington State at 1.8 is close to its 1.62 last season. Turnover rates swing a lot, so Utah State's number is more likely to fall than hold, but sloppy ball security at home keeps Washington State live.
TRENCHESFSU @ LOU
FSU: 119.6 rushing yards allowed per game to LOU's 156.4
Florida State has allowed 119.6 rushing yards a game over five games, while Louisville has allowed 156.4 over the same count. That makes Florida State the firmer run defense so far, though the sheet doesn't say whose ground games either side has faced. Five games is enough to take the gap seriously without treating it as settled. On the road, Florida State's front gives it a way to keep this game from turning into Louisville's kind of game.
COVERAGEPHI @ JAX
PHI: 5.23 yards per play allowed to JAX's 5.92
PHI is at 5.23 yards per play allowed over 4 games; JAX is at 5.92 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 8.
PACE & SCRIPTCLE @ NYJ
CLE @ NYJ carries a 39.5 market total
The current fanduel total is 39.5, 4 points below the 43.5 median across 15 games with posted totals on this slate.
COVERAGECLE @ NYJ
NYJ: 193.3 passing yards allowed per game to CLE's 235.3
The Jets allow 193.3 passing yards a game to Cleveland's 235.3, so New York's pass defense has given up less through the air over four games. Without a read on which quarterbacks each team faced, the gap may partly reflect schedule. If you like a Jets passing prop, remember Cleveland's defense has been more generous against the pass in this short sample.
PACE & SCRIPTBAL @ ATL
BAL: 29 points per game to ATL's 24
BAL is at 29 points per game over 4 games; ATL is at 24 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season BAL was at 24.9 over 17 games and ATL at 20.8 over 17 games.
TRENCHESLV @ NE
NE: 104 rushing yards allowed per game to LV's 134.5
LV is at 134.5 rushing yards allowed per game over 4 games; NE is at 104 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 8.
QUARTERBACKNYG @ WSH
Jameis Winston is the projected starting quarterback for NYG
Through 3 games in 2026, Jameis Winston threw for 479 passing yards, completed 55.1% of his passes and averaged 6.14 yards per attempt. Last season over 3 games he threw for 567 yards, completed 56.1% and averaged 8.59 yards per attempt, 2-2 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 3-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.
QUARTERBACKNYG @ WSH
Jayden Daniels is the projected starting quarterback for WSH
Through 2 games in 2026, Jayden Daniels threw for 260 passing yards, completed 56.9% of his passes and averaged 5.1 yards per attempt. Last season over 7 games he threw for 1262 yards, completed 60.6% and averaged 6.71 yards per attempt, 8-3 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 3-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKPHI @ JAX
Jalen Hurts is the projected starting quarterback for PHI
Through 4 games in 2026, Jalen Hurts threw for 713 passing yards, completed 59.6% of his passes and averaged 6.25 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3224 yards, completed 64.8% and averaged 7.1 yards per attempt, 25-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 7-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.
QUARTERBACKPHI @ JAX
Trevor Lawrence is the projected starting quarterback for JAX
Through 4 games in 2026, Trevor Lawrence threw for 843 passing yards, completed 69.2% of his passes and averaged 8.11 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4007 yards, completed 60.9% and averaged 7.16 yards per attempt, 29-12 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 8-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.
QUARTERBACKHOU @ TEN
C.J. Stroud is the projected starting quarterback for HOU
Through 4 games in 2026, C.J. Stroud threw for 1141 passing yards, completed 61.6% of his passes and averaged 7.56 yards per attempt. Last season over 14 games he threw for 3041 yards, completed 64.5% and averaged 7.19 yards per attempt, 19-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.
QUARTERBACKCIN @ MIA
Joe Burrow is the projected starting quarterback for CIN
Through 4 games in 2026, Joe Burrow threw for 1171 passing yards, completed 71.3% of his passes and averaged 7.46 yards per attempt. Last season over 8 games he threw for 1809 yards, completed 66.8% and averaged 6.99 yards per attempt, 17-5 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 7-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.
QUARTERBACKHOU @ TEN
Cam Ward is the projected starting quarterback for TEN
Through 4 games in 2026, Cam Ward threw for 726 passing yards, completed 63% of his passes and averaged 6.1 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3169 yards, completed 59.8% and averaged 5.87 yards per attempt, 15-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 3-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.
PACE & SCRIPTMIN @ NO
NO: 26.3 points per game to MIN's 21.5
MIN is at 21.5 points per game over 4 games; NO is at 26.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season MIN was at 20.2 over 17 games and NO at 18 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTCIN @ MIA
CIN: 30:49 time of possession per game to MIA's 27:38
CIN is at 30:49 time of possession per game over 4 games; MIA is at 27:38 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season CIN was at 30:08 over 17 games and MIA at 28:57 over 17 games.
QUARTERBACKSF @ SEA
Sam Darnold is the projected starting quarterback for SEA
Through 3 games in 2026, Sam Darnold threw for 560 passing yards, completed 65.2% of his passes and averaged 8.12 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4048 yards, completed 67.7% and averaged 8.49 yards per attempt, 25-14 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.
QUARTERBACKSF @ SEA
Brock Purdy is the projected starting quarterback for SF
Through 4 games in 2026, Brock Purdy threw for 1007 passing yards, completed 69.9% of his passes and averaged 8.91 yards per attempt. Last season over 9 games he threw for 2167 yards, completed 69.4% and averaged 7.63 yards per attempt, 20-10 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 11-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSMIN @ NO
NO: 5.03 yards per play to MIN's 4.4
New Orleans is moving the ball at 5.03 a play, almost exactly its 5.05 from last season, so that number looks real. Minnesota is the one that has slipped, from 4.82 last season to 4.4 over 4 games. Both teams had 3 plays of 20+ yards last time out, with Tyler Shough finding Chris Olave for 44. Minnesota's drop over a short sample is the piece more likely to bounce back toward last season.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSHOU @ TEN
HOU: 5.5 yards per play to TEN's 4.85
Houston gains more per snap than Tennessee, and its last game showed why: 8 plays of 20+ yards, with C.J. Stroud hitting Jaylin Noel for 52 and Nico Collins for 45. Both teams are up from last season, Houston from 5.1 and Tennessee from 4.38, over just 4 games. Houston's explosives fuel its number, and those swing week to week. If Cam Ward and Carnell Tate can't keep pace, Tennessee needs long, patient drives to stay close.
COVERAGEPHI @ JAX
JAX: 32.6% third downs allowed to PHI's 40.4%
PHI is at 40.4% third downs allowed over 4 games; JAX is at 32.6% over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 8.
RED ZONETB @ DAL
TB: 53.8% red-zone scoring allowed to DAL's 70%
TB is at 53.8% red-zone scoring allowed over 5 games; DAL is at 70% over 5 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 8.
P Edge side won; final 24-16
COVERAGEISU @ BYU
ISU: 30.8% third downs allowed to BYU's 40.4%
Iowa State has let opponents convert 30.8% of third downs over five games, and BYU sits at 40.4% over four. Getting off the field that often keeps drives short and keeps pressure off the offence. Third down rates move a lot in small samples, and the sheet doesn't show the quality of offences behind either number. On the road at BYU, Iowa State's third down defense is its best path to keeping the game close.
REPLACEMENTBUF @ LAR
Terrance Ferguson (TE) is on injured reserve for LAR
Ferguson (ankle) is expected to be ready to return after his four-game stint on injured reserve, Cameron DaSilva of USA Today reports. Reported Oct 7.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ ATL
Durham Smythe (TE) is on injured reserve for BAL
The Ravens placed Smythe (Achilles) on their injured reserve list Wednesday, Ryan Mink of the Ravens' official site reports. Reported Oct 7.
REPLACEMENTDET @ ARI
Hunter Long (TE) is on injured reserve for ARI
The Cardinals placed Long (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Oct 6.
REPLACEMENTDEN @ LAC
Branson Taylor (G) is ir-r for LAC
The Chargers designated Taylor (undisclosed) for return to practice from their injured reserve list Tuesday. Reported Oct 7.
REPLACEMENTDEN @ LAC
Scott Matlock (FB) is ir-r for LAC
The Chargers opened Matlock's (undisclosed) 21-day practice window Monday, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports. Reported Oct 6.
QUARTERBACKTB @ DAL
Jalon Daniels is the projected starting quarterback for TB
Through 3 games in 2026, Jalon Daniels threw for 337 passing yards, completed 69.1% of his passes and averaged 6.13 yards per attempt. His 2-3 touchdown-to-interception line rounds out the current sample without turning an early-season profile into a settled one.
P Edge side won; final 24-16
QUARTERBACKTB @ DAL
Dak Prescott is the projected starting quarterback for DAL
Through 5 games in 2026, Dak Prescott threw for 1381 passing yards, completed 67.2% of his passes and averaged 7.19 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4552 yards, completed 67.3% and averaged 7.59 yards per attempt, 30-10 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 9-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 5 games in.
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
QUARTERBACKBUF @ LAR
Matthew Stafford is the projected starting quarterback for LAR
Through 4 games in 2026, Matthew Stafford threw for 1189 passing yards, completed 61.1% of his passes and averaged 7.34 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4707 yards, completed 65% and averaged 7.88 yards per attempt, 46-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-6 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.
QUARTERBACKBUF @ LAR
Josh Allen is the projected starting quarterback for BUF
Through 4 games in 2026, Josh Allen threw for 1039 passing yards, completed 66.4% of his passes and averaged 8.73 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3668 yards, completed 69.3% and averaged 7.97 yards per attempt, 25-10 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.
PACE & SCRIPTTB @ DAL
TB: 22.4 points allowed per game to DAL's 27.2
TB is at 22.4 points allowed per game over 5 games; DAL is at 27.2 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season TB was at 24.2 over 17 games and DAL at 30.1 over 17 games.
P Edge side won; final 24-16
QUARTERBACKBAL @ ATL
Michael Penix Jr. is the projected starting quarterback for ATL
Through 2 games in 2026, Michael Penix Jr. threw for 479 passing yards, completed 73.3% of his passes and averaged 10.64 yards per attempt. Last season over 9 games he threw for 1982 yards, completed 60.1% and averaged 7.18 yards per attempt, 9-3 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKCHI @ GB
Tyson Bagent is the projected starting quarterback for CHI
Through 2 games in 2026, Tyson Bagent threw for 322 passing yards, completed 69.8% of his passes and averaged 7.49 yards per attempt. Last season over 3 games he threw for 47 yards, completed 75% and averaged 11.75 yards per attempt, 0-0 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 0-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKCHI @ GB
Jordan Love is the projected starting quarterback for GB
Through 4 games in 2026, Jordan Love threw for 1041 passing yards, completed 56.5% of his passes and averaged 6.76 yards per attempt. Last season over 15 games he threw for 3381 yards, completed 66.3% and averaged 7.7 yards per attempt, 23-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 8-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.
QUARTERBACKDEN @ LAC
Bo Nix is the projected starting quarterback for DEN
Through 4 games in 2026, Bo Nix threw for 819 passing yards, completed 60% of his passes and averaged 6.07 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3931 yards, completed 63.4% and averaged 6.42 yards per attempt, 25-11 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.
QUARTERBACKDEN @ LAC
Justin Herbert is the projected starting quarterback for LAC
Through 4 games in 2026, Justin Herbert threw for 816 passing yards, completed 59.7% of his passes and averaged 6.86 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3727 yards, completed 66.4% and averaged 7.28 yards per attempt, 26-13 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-6 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.
QUARTERBACKDET @ ARI
Jared Goff is the projected starting quarterback for DET
Through 4 games in 2026, Jared Goff threw for 1214 passing yards, completed 67.7% of his passes and averaged 7.54 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4564 yards, completed 68% and averaged 7.9 yards per attempt, 34-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 9-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.
QUARTERBACKDET @ ARI
Jacoby Brissett is the projected starting quarterback for ARI
Through 4 games in 2026, Jacoby Brissett threw for 818 passing yards, completed 67.8% of his passes and averaged 5.38 yards per attempt. Last season over 14 games he threw for 3366 yards, completed 64.9% and averaged 6.94 yards per attempt, 23-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.
PACE & SCRIPTBUF @ LAR
LAR: 31:19 time of possession per game to BUF's 28:06
BUF is at 28:06 time of possession per game over 4 games; LAR is at 31:19 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season BUF was at 33:09 over 17 games and LAR at 30:46 over 17 games.
QUARTERBACKCIN @ MIA
Malik Willis is the projected starting quarterback for MIA
Through 4 games in 2026, Malik Willis threw for 712 passing yards, completed 56.3% of his passes and averaged 6.91 yards per attempt. Last season over 4 games he threw for 422 yards, completed 85.7% and averaged 12.06 yards per attempt, 3-0 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.
QUARTERBACKLV @ NE
Kirk Cousins is the projected starting quarterback for LV
Through 4 games in 2026, Kirk Cousins threw for 1026 passing yards, completed 64.6% of his passes and averaged 7.13 yards per attempt. Last season over 10 games he threw for 1721 yards, completed 61.7% and averaged 6.4 yards per attempt, 10-5 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 11-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.
QUARTERBACKLV @ NE
Drake Maye is the projected starting quarterback for NE
Through 4 games in 2026, Drake Maye threw for 854 passing yards, completed 62.4% of his passes and averaged 7.3 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4394 yards, completed 72% and averaged 8.93 yards per attempt, 31-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-7 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.
QUARTERBACKMIN @ NO
Kyler Murray is the projected starting quarterback for MIN
Through 3 games in 2026, Kyler Murray threw for 433 passing yards, completed 63.4% of his passes and averaged 6.1 yards per attempt. Last season over 5 games he threw for 962 yards, completed 68.3% and averaged 5.97 yards per attempt, 6-3 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.
QUARTERBACKMIN @ NO
Tyler Shough is the projected starting quarterback for NO
Through 4 games in 2026, Tyler Shough threw for 1203 passing yards, completed 67.2% of his passes and averaged 6.68 yards per attempt. Last season over 11 games he threw for 2384 yards, completed 67.6% and averaged 7.29 yards per attempt, 10-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 9-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.
QUARTERBACKCLE @ NYJ
Deshaun Watson is the projected starting quarterback for CLE
Through 4 games in 2026, Deshaun Watson threw for 855 passing yards, completed 69.6% of his passes and averaged 7.43 yards per attempt. His 6-2 touchdown-to-interception line rounds out the current sample without turning an early-season profile into a settled one.
QUARTERBACKCLE @ NYJ
Geno Smith is the projected starting quarterback for NYJ
Through 4 games in 2026, Geno Smith threw for 902 passing yards, completed 72.7% of his passes and averaged 7.71 yards per attempt. Last season over 15 games he threw for 3025 yards, completed 67.4% and averaged 6.75 yards per attempt, 19-17 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.
QUARTERBACKIND @ PIT
Daniel Jones is the projected starting quarterback for IND
Through 4 games in 2026, Daniel Jones threw for 754 passing yards, completed 63.6% of his passes and averaged 5.71 yards per attempt. Last season over 13 games he threw for 3101 yards, completed 68% and averaged 8.08 yards per attempt, 19-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 3-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.
QUARTERBACKIND @ PIT
Aaron Rodgers is the projected starting quarterback for PIT
Through 4 games in 2026, Aaron Rodgers threw for 999 passing yards, completed 57.5% of his passes and averaged 6.53 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3322 yards, completed 65.7% and averaged 6.67 yards per attempt, 24-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 7-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.
COVERAGENYG @ WSH
NYG: 205.3 passing yards allowed per game to WSH's 242.5
The Giants allow 205.3 passing yards a game, and Washington allows 242.5, so New York's pass defense has given up less through four games. Passing yards against shift with script, since teams that trail throw more. If the Giants keep it close, Washington's secondary is the softer unit in this matchup based on what each has allowed so far.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSCHI @ GB
CHI: 5.75 yards per play to GB's 5.15
Chicago gets more per snap, and its 5.75 matches last season's 5.71, so this offense is holding its form even with Tyson Bagent at quarterback last game. Green Bay has dipped from 5.61 to 5.15 in 4 games, a drop that could fade. The Packers leaned on the run last time, with 31 and 27-yard carries from Kaleb Johnson and Chris Brooks. If Green Bay's ground game controls the clock, Chicago's per-play edge gets fewer chances to show up.
SITUATIONALDET @ ARI
DET: 56.8 penalty yards per game to ARI's 75
DET is at 56.8 penalty yards per game over 4 games; ARI is at 75 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season DET was at 42.2 over 17 games and ARI at 49.5 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALMIN @ NO
MIN: 100% fourth-down conversion rate to NO's 77.8%
MIN is at 100% fourth-down conversion rate over 4 games; NO is at 77.8% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season MIN was at 62.5% over 17 games and NO at 41.2% over 17 games.
SITUATIONALCIN @ MIA
CIN: 45.3% third-down conversion rate to MIA's 38%
CIN is at 45.3% third-down conversion rate over 4 games; MIA is at 38% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season CIN was at 43.4% over 17 games and MIA at 34.9% over 17 games.
COVERAGECLE @ NYJ
NYJ: 4.88 yards per play allowed to CLE's 5.47
The Jets allow 4.88 yards per play and Cleveland allows 5.47, so New York's defense gives up less on a typical snap. Yards per play is less dependent on game script than total yardage, which makes it a cleaner measure of a unit, though four games is still a small sample. In a game between these two, the Jets defense has the edge on paper in limiting chunk gains.
COVERAGEDET @ ARI
ARI: 45.5% third downs allowed to DET's 52.8%
DET is at 52.8% third downs allowed over 4 games; ARI is at 45.5% over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 8.
COVERAGEBUF @ LAR
LAR: 33.3% third downs allowed to BUF's 40.7%
The Rams hold opponents to 33.3% on third down, and Buffalo allows 40.7%, so the Rams get off the field more often. Third-down rates come from a small number of snaps, and four games without opponent context means this can move. Against an offense that sustains drives, a defense that wins third downs can shorten the game and pull scoring down.
PASS RUSHBUF @ LAR
LAR: 1.5 sacks taken per game to BUF's 2.25
BUF is at 2.25 sacks taken per game over 4 games; LAR is at 1.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season BUF was at 2.86 over 17 games and LAR at 1.77 over 17 games.
PASS RUSHCLE @ NYJ
CLE: 3 sacks recorded per game to NYJ's 2.25
Cleveland's defense is getting 3 sacks a game, and the Jets are at 2.25, so both fronts are creating pressure and the Browns are doing it a bit more often. Four games is a short window, and sack totals depend on how often opponents drop back. With two defenses that get home, quarterback hold times and sack props are the place to look in this game.
PASS RUSHBUF @ LAR
BUF: 2.5 sacks recorded per game to LAR's 1.75
BUF is at 2.5 sacks recorded per game over 4 games; LAR is at 1.75 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 8.
PACE & SCRIPTIOWA @ WASH
IOWA: 12.6 points allowed per game to WASH's 18.4
IOWA is at 12.6 points allowed per game over 5 games; WASH is at 18.4 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season IOWA was at 16.1 over 13 games and WASH at 18.7 over 13 games.
SITUATIONALWSU @ USU
USU: 197.8 team passing yards per game to WSU's 159.2
WSU is at 159.2 team passing yards per game over 5 games; USU is at 197.8 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season WSU was at 210.5 over 13 games and USU at 247 over 13 games.
REPLACEMENTCHI @ GB
Braxton Jones (OT) is on injured reserve for CHI
The Bears placed Jones (knee) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Oct 4.
REPLACEMENTDEN @ LAC
Jonah Coleman (RB) is on injured reserve for DEN
Coleman (ankle) is being placed on injured reserve Saturday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. Reported Sep 26.
REPLACEMENTDET @ ARI
Paris Johnson Jr. (OT) is on injured reserve for ARI
The Cardinals placed Johnson (biceps) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Oct 7.
REPLACEMENTSF @ SEA
Demarcus Robinson (WR) is on injured reserve for SF
The 49ers placed Robinson (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Sep 26.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ ATL
Ethan Pocic (C) is on injured reserve for BAL
Baltimore placed Pocic (knee) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Oct 4.
REPLACEMENTTB @ DAL
Jalen McMillan (WR) is on injured reserve for TB
McMillan went on injured reserve with a knee injury, Sep 30, so he is out against Dallas and for a stretch beyond it. Tampa Bay's other receivers absorb his targets.
P Edge side won; final 24-16
PACE & SCRIPTIND @ PIT
PIT: 21.8 points allowed per game to IND's 26
IND is at 26 points allowed per game over 4 games; PIT is at 21.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season IND was at 24.2 over 17 games and PIT at 22.8 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTSF @ SEA
SF: 30.5 points per game to SEA's 26.3
SF is at 30.5 points per game over 4 games; SEA is at 26.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season SF was at 25.7 over 17 games and SEA at 28.4 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALHOU @ TEN
HOU: 6.7 yards per pass attempt to TEN's 5.72
HOU is at 6.7 yards per pass attempt over 4 games; TEN is at 5.72 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season HOU was at 6.2 over 17 games and TEN at 4.5 over 17 games.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSIND @ PIT
PIT: 5.05 yards per play to IND's 4.5
Pittsburgh is gaining more per play, and Aaron Rodgers pushed the ball deep last game with 6 plays of 20+ yards, two of them to DK Metcalf. Indianapolis managed just 1 such play and has fallen from 5.77 last season to 4.5 over 4 games. A drop that steep in 4 games is more likely to rebound than to stick. The current gap favors Pittsburgh, but the Colts number is the one most likely to move.
PACE & SCRIPTFSU @ LOU
LOU: 38.6 points per game to FSU's 33.2
FSU is at 33.2 points per game over 5 games; LOU is at 38.6 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season FSU was at 33 over 12 games and LOU at 29.9 over 13 games.
SITUATIONALCIN @ MIA
CIN: 6.6 yards per pass attempt to MIA's 5.6
CIN is at 6.6 yards per pass attempt over 4 games; MIA is at 5.6 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season CIN was at 5.81 over 17 games and MIA at 6 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALISU @ BYU
ISU: 1.4 fourth-down attempts per game to BYU's 0.25
ISU is at 1.4 fourth-down attempts per game over 5 games; BYU is at 0.25 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season ISU was at 2.33 over 12 games and BYU at 2.21 over 14 games.
RED ZONEDET @ ARI
DET: 4.5 red-zone trips per game to ARI's 3.5
DET is at 4.5 red-zone trips per game over 4 games; ARI is at 3.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season DET was at 3.76 over 17 games and ARI at 3.59 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ TEN
British Brooks (RB) is on injured reserve for HOU
Brooks (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve Friday. Reported Oct 3.
SITUATIONALBUF @ LAR
BUF (3-1) at LAR (2-2)
Buffalo is 3-1 with a +20 margin and won its only road game, though it lost last week. The Rams are 2-2 at just +2 and have split two home games. With a one-game road sample for Buffalo, the margin gap is the better guide, and it points to the Bills as the more complete team so far.
REPLACEMENTCLE @ NYJ
Braiden McGregor (DE) is on injured reserve for NYJ
McGregor (pectoral) was placed on the Jets' injured reserve list Wednesday, Eric Allen of the team's official site reports. Reported Oct 7.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ NO
Travis Etienne Jr. (RB) is on injured reserve for NO
The Saints are placing Etienne (hamstring) on injured reserve, Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com reports. Reported Oct 1.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NE
Jack Bech (WR) is on injured reserve for LV
The Raiders placed Bech (forearm) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Sep 29.
REPLACEMENTIND @ PIT
Alec Pierce (WR) is on injured reserve for IND
Colts head coach Shane Steichen reiterated Monday that Pierce didn't undergo surgery on his left heel and is continuing to rehab the injury, James Boyd of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 28.
REPLACEMENTCHI @ GB
Jayden Reed (WR) is on injured reserve for GB
The Packers are expected to place Reed (neck) on injured reserve Wednesday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. Reported Sep 30.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ MIA
De'Von Achane (RB) is on injured reserve for MIA
The Dolphins placed Achane (knee) on injured reserve Monday. Reported Sep 28.
TURNOVERSCIN @ MIA
CIN: 1.25 takeaways per game to MIA's 0.75
Cincinnati's defense forces 1.25 turnovers a game, and Miami forces 0.75, so the Bengals have created a few more extra possessions through four games. Takeaways bounce around a lot week to week, and a gap this small can close fast. Lean on it lightly when thinking about the game, since turnovers are among the least predictable stats in football.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ MIA
Andrei Iosivas (WR) is on injured reserve for CIN
The Bengals placed Iosivas (thumb) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Sep 26.
TURNOVERSCHI @ GB
CHI: 1.5 takeaways per game to GB's 1
CHI is at 1.5 takeaways per game over 4 games; GB is at 1 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 8.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ JAX
Christian Braswell (CB) is on injured reserve for JAX
Braswell (knee) reverted from waivers to Jacksonville's injured reserve list Wednesday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports. Reported Oct 8.
TURNOVERSBUF @ LAR
LAR: 0.5 fumbles lost per game to BUF's 1
BUF is at 1 fumbles lost per game over 4 games; LAR is at 0.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season BUF was at 0.53 over 17 games and LAR at 0.41 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSDEN @ LAC
DEN: 0.5 fumbles lost per game to LAC's 1
DEN is at 0.5 fumbles lost per game over 4 games; LAC is at 1 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season DEN was at 0.35 over 17 games and LAC at 0.41 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSCLE @ NYJ
NYJ: 0.25 fumbles lost per game to CLE's 0.75
CLE is at 0.75 fumbles lost per game over 4 games; NYJ is at 0.25 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season CLE was at 0.41 over 17 games and NYJ at 0.59 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ TEN
Jaylin Smith (CB) is on injured reserve for HOU
Smith (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve by the Texans on Tuesday. Reported Oct 7.
TURNOVERSBUF @ LAR
BUF: 1.25 takeaways per game to LAR's 0.75
BUF is at 1.25 takeaways per game over 4 games; LAR is at 0.75 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 8.
COVERAGENYG @ WSH
WSH: 42% third downs allowed to NYG's 48.9%
NYG is at 48.9% third downs allowed over 4 games; WSH is at 42% over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 8.
TURNOVERSISU @ BYU
BYU: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to ISU's 1
ISU is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 5 games; BYU is at 0.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season ISU was at 1.17 over 12 games and BYU at 1.14 over 14 games.
TURNOVERSBAL @ ATL
BAL: 1.25 takeaways per game to ATL's 0.75
Baltimore's defense forces 1.25 turnovers a game to Atlanta's 0.75, so the Ravens have created a bit more over four games. Takeaways are among the noisiest stats in football and a half-takeaway gap can disappear in one game. Use it as a small tiebreaker, and give more weight to how each offense protects the ball.
AFTER GARYISU @ BYU
BYU -11.5 → -11.5
Gary's number was -11.5; the same book now shows -11.5.
PACE & SCRIPTCIN @ MIA
CIN: 21.3 points allowed per game to MIA's 25.3
CIN is at 21.3 points allowed per game over 4 games; MIA is at 25.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season CIN was at 28.9 over 17 games and MIA at 24.9 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALLV @ NE
LV: 30 penalty yards per game to NE's 46
LV is at 30 penalty yards per game over 4 games; NE is at 46 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season LV was at 53 over 17 games and NE at 50.2 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSSF @ SEA
SF: 0.25 interceptions thrown per game to SEA's 0.75
SF is at 0.25 interceptions thrown per game over 4 games; SEA is at 0.75 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season SF was at 0.94 over 17 games and SEA at 0.88 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSNYG @ WSH
WSH: 0.25 interceptions thrown per game to NYG's 0.75
NYG is at 0.75 interceptions thrown per game over 4 games; WSH is at 0.25 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season NYG was at 0.59 over 17 games and WSH at 0.71 over 17 games.
RED ZONEDET @ ARI
ARI: 69.2% red-zone scoring allowed to DET's 82.4%
DET is at 82.4% red-zone scoring allowed over 4 games; ARI is at 69.2% over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 8.
SITUATIONALDET @ ARI
DET: 1.75 fourth-down attempts per game to ARI's 1
DET is at 1.75 fourth-down attempts per game over 4 games; ARI is at 1 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season DET was at 1.82 over 17 games and ARI at 1.65 over 17 games.
TRENCHESNYG @ WSH
WSH: 4.22 yards per rush attempt to NYG's 3.57
NYG is at 3.57 yards per rush attempt over 4 games; WSH is at 4.22 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season NYG was at 4.31 over 17 games and WSH at 4.81 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSCLE @ NYJ
NYJ: 0 interceptions thrown per game to CLE's 0.5
CLE is at 0.5 interceptions thrown per game over 4 games; NYJ is at 0 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season CLE was at 1.06 over 17 games and NYJ at 0.76 over 17 games.
TRENCHESHOU @ TEN
TEN: 4.08 yards per rush attempt to HOU's 3.45
HOU is at 3.45 yards per rush attempt over 4 games; TEN is at 4.08 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season HOU was at 3.94 over 17 games and TEN at 4.19 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSHOU @ TEN
HOU: 0 interceptions thrown per game to TEN's 0.5
HOU is at 0 interceptions thrown per game over 4 games; TEN is at 0.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season HOU was at 0.53 over 17 games and TEN at 0.47 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTWSU @ USU
WSU: 19 points per game to USU's 14
WSU is at 19 points per game over 5 games; USU is at 14 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season WSU was at 22.5 over 13 games and USU at 30.9 over 13 games.
SITUATIONALIND @ PIT
IND: 1.5 fourth-down attempts per game to PIT's 0.75
IND is at 1.5 fourth-down attempts per game over 4 games; PIT is at 0.75 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season IND was at 1.59 over 17 games and PIT at 1.35 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALHOU @ TEN
HOU: 1.75 fourth-down attempts per game to TEN's 1
HOU is at 1.75 fourth-down attempts per game over 4 games; TEN is at 1 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season HOU was at 1.12 over 17 games and TEN at 2.06 over 17 games.
PRACTICE REPORTBUF @ LAR
Landon Jackson
Knee · Limited practice
REPLACEMENTCHI @ GB
Edgerrin Cooper (LB) is on injured reserve for GB
Cooper (Achilles) was placed on injured reserve by the Packers on Tuesday. Reported Oct 6.
REPLACEMENTCHI @ GB
Warren Brinson (DT) is on injured reserve for GB
Green Bay placed Brinson (calf/groin) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Oct 3.
REPLACEMENTIND @ PIT
Derrick Harmon (DT) is on injured reserve for PIT
The Steelers placed Harmon (foot) on injured reserve Monday, Teresa Varley of the team's official site reports. Reported Oct 5.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ NO
Jordyn Tyson (WR) is on injured reserve for NO
NO lists Jordyn Tyson as on injured reserve on the injury report. Reported Oct 5.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ JAX
Caleb Ransaw (S) is on injured reserve for JAX
The Jaguars placed Ransaw (knee) on their injured reserve list Tuesday. Reported Oct 7.
PRACTICE REPORTPHI @ JAX
Josh Hines-Allen
Limited practice
PRACTICE REPORTPHI @ JAX
Montaric Brown
Limited practice
PRACTICE REPORTPHI @ JAX
DaVon Hamilton
Limited practice
PRACTICE REPORTPHI @ JAX
Jarrian Jones
Limited practice
PRACTICE REPORTPHI @ JAX
Dontayvion Wicks
Limited practice
PRACTICE REPORTPHI @ JAX
AJ Epenesa
Limited practice
PRACTICE REPORTPHI @ JAX
Jourdan Lewis
Limited practice
PRACTICE REPORTHOU @ TEN
Nico Collins
Limited practice
PRACTICE REPORTHOU @ TEN
Kevin Winston Jr.
Limited practice
PRACTICE REPORTHOU @ TEN
Marcus Harris
Limited practice
PRACTICE REPORTCIN @ MIA
Jonathan Allen
Limited practice
PRACTICE REPORTCIN @ MIA
Tucker Addington
Limited practice
PRACTICE REPORTMIN @ NO
Harrison Smith
Limited practice
PRACTICE REPORTMIN @ NO
Aaron Jones Sr.
Limited practice
PRACTICE REPORTCLE @ NYJ
Derek Barnett
Limited practice
PRACTICE REPORTIND @ PIT
Tanor Bortolini
Limited practice
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Rachaad White
Limited practice
PRACTICE REPORTCHI @ GB
Anthony Belton
Limited practice
PRACTICE REPORTCHI @ GB
Lukas Van Ness
Limited practice
PRACTICE REPORTCHI @ GB
Devonte Wyatt
Limited practice
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ SEA
Mike Evans
Limited practice
PRACTICE REPORTBAL @ ATL
Ronnie Stanley
Limited practice
PRACTICE REPORTTB @ DAL
Anthony Nelson
Limited practice
P Edge side won; final 24-16
PRACTICE REPORTBUF @ LAR
Christian Benford
Toe · Limited practice
PRACTICE REPORTBUF @ LAR
Nate Landman
Shoulder · Limited practice
PRACTICE REPORTBUF @ LAR
Jaylen Watson
Shoulder · Limited practice
PACE & SCRIPTPHI @ JAX
JAX: 30:53 time of possession per game to PHI's 28:33
PHI is at 28:33 time of possession per game over 4 games; JAX is at 30:53 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season PHI was at 30:11 over 17 games and JAX at 31:56 over 17 games.
PASS RUSHDET @ ARI
ARI: 10.3 sack yards lost per game to DET's 16.3
DET is at 16.3 sack yards lost per game over 4 games; ARI is at 10.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season DET was at 20.3 over 17 games and ARI at 24.9 over 17 games.
TRENCHESDEN @ LAC
LAC: 121.8 rushing yards allowed per game to DEN's 142.8
The Chargers allow 121.8 rushing yards a game and Denver allows 142.8, so the Chargers' run defense has held up better through four games. Rushing yards against depend partly on script, since teams with the lead run more late. If the Chargers want to lean on the run, Denver's defense has been more generous on the ground in this short sample.
SITUATIONALBAL @ ATL
BAL (3-1) at ATL (2-2)
Both teams have won 2 straight, but BAL is +20 and ATL only +4, so ATL's 2-2 is about as even as it looks. BAL is 2-0 on the road, and ATL is 0-1 at home, one game of evidence. ATL's streak shows recent form, but its season margin has barely moved off even. For a bettor, BAL's road wins and bigger margin give it the steadier profile, though four games is still a small base.
AFTER GARYIOWA @ WASH
IOWA +126 → +126
Gary's number was 126; the same book now shows 126.
AFTER GARYWSU @ USU
USU -3.5 → -3.5
Gary's number was -3.5; the same book now shows -3.5.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSCIN @ MIA
CIN: 5.65 yards per play to MIA's 5.15
Cincinnati is up from 5.23 last season to 5.65, and Joe Burrow spread his big plays around last game, with three completions of 26 or more yards to three different receivers. Miami has slipped from 5.4 to 5.15, and its only 20+ yard play last time was a 53-yard run by Ollie Gordon II. One long run can carry a game's average. Miami needs that kind of play to keep up if its passing game stays quiet.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSBUF @ LAR
BUF: 6.58 yards per play to LAR's 6.1
Both offenses are moving the ball well, and Buffalo has jumped from 5.94 last season to 6.58 over 4 games. The Rams at 6.1 are right at last season's 6.15, which makes their number the steadier one. Buffalo's rise over a short sample could cool off. With both teams this efficient per snap, this sets up as a game where both offenses should find room.
TURNOVERSTB @ DAL
DAL: 0.4 fumbles lost per game to TB's 0.8
TB is at 0.8 fumbles lost per game over 5 games; DAL is at 0.4 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season TB was at 0.29 over 17 games and DAL at 0.53 over 17 games.
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
SITUATIONALFSU @ LOU
FSU: 66.4 penalty yards per game to LOU's 82.4
FSU is at 66.4 penalty yards per game over 5 games; LOU is at 82.4 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season FSU was at 45.3 over 12 games and LOU at 63.2 over 13 games.
SITUATIONALIND @ PIT
IND: 37.7% third-down conversion rate to PIT's 32%
IND is at 37.7% third-down conversion rate over 4 games; PIT is at 32% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season IND was at 42.6% over 17 games and PIT at 40% over 17 games.
SITUATIONALPHI @ JAX
PHI: 48.3 penalty yards per game to JAX's 61.5
PHI is at 48.3 penalty yards per game over 4 games; JAX is at 61.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season PHI was at 63.1 over 17 games and JAX at 63.5 over 17 games.
COVERAGEIND @ PIT
IND: 29.2% third downs allowed to PIT's 34.8%
Indianapolis holds opponents to 29.2% on third down, and Pittsburgh allows 34.8%, so both defenses get off the field and the Colts do it more often. Third-down rates come from a small number of snaps over four games, so expect some of this to move. With two defenses winning third downs, drives may stall more often, which is worth weighing for the total.
SITUATIONALFSU @ LOU
LOU: 23.4 first downs per game to FSU's 20.2
FSU is at 20.2 first downs per game over 5 games; LOU is at 23.4 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season FSU was at 24.2 over 12 games and LOU at 19.6 over 13 games.
RED ZONESF @ SEA
SEA: 4 red-zone trips per game to SF's 3.25
SF is at 3.25 red-zone trips per game over 4 games; SEA is at 4 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season SF was at 3.88 over 17 games and SEA at 3.47 over 17 games.
RED ZONEIND @ PIT
IND: 3 red-zone trips per game to PIT's 2.25
IND is at 3 red-zone trips per game over 4 games; PIT is at 2.25 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season IND was at 3.88 over 17 games and PIT at 3 over 17 games.
RED ZONELV @ NE
LV: 53.3% red-zone scoring rate to NE's 44.4%
LV is at 53.3% red-zone scoring rate over 4 games; NE is at 44.4% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season LV was at 50% over 17 games and NE at 57.1% over 17 games.
SITUATIONALDEN @ LAC
DEN: 50% fourth-down conversion rate to LAC's 33.3%
DEN is at 50% fourth-down conversion rate over 4 games; LAC is at 33.3% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season DEN was at 50% over 17 games and LAC at 57.1% over 17 games.
SITUATIONALTB @ DAL
TB (1-4) at DAL (2-3)
TB is 1-4 but only -12 on the year, so a team that has lost four of five has kept most games close. DAL is 2-3 and +2, which says its losses have been tight as well. DAL is just 1-2 at home, so it has not held serve in its own building, and TB arrives off a win. The point margins say these teams are nearer each other than the standings, and DAL's losing home record gives it little edge from the venue.
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
SITUATIONALLV @ NE
LV: 39.6% third-down conversion rate to NE's 34.6%
LV is at 39.6% third-down conversion rate over 4 games; NE is at 34.6% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season LV was at 33.8% over 17 games and NE at 42.9% over 17 games.
SITUATIONALLV @ NE
LV: 21.8 first downs per game to NE's 19.3
LV is at 21.8 first downs per game over 4 games; NE is at 19.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season LV was at 15.1 over 17 games and NE at 21.2 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALCHI @ GB
CHI: 6.83 yards per pass attempt to GB's 6.1
CHI is at 6.83 yards per pass attempt over 4 games; GB is at 6.1 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season CHI was at 6.46 over 17 games and GB at 6.85 over 17 games.
RED ZONEBUF @ LAR
LAR: 58.3% red-zone scoring allowed to BUF's 68.8%
BUF is at 68.8% red-zone scoring allowed over 4 games; LAR is at 58.3% over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 8.
SITUATIONALDEN @ LAC
DEN: 39.6% third-down conversion rate to LAC's 34.6%
DEN is at 39.6% third-down conversion rate over 4 games; LAC is at 34.6% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season DEN was at 41.2% over 17 games and LAC at 45.8% over 17 games.
SITUATIONALBUF @ LAR
BUF: 7.73 yards per pass attempt to LAR's 7
BUF is at 7.73 yards per pass attempt over 4 games; LAR is at 7 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season BUF was at 6.88 over 17 games and LAR at 7.24 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALWSU @ USU
USU: 2 fourth-down attempts per game to WSU's 1.2
WSU is at 1.2 fourth-down attempts per game over 5 games; USU is at 2 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season WSU was at 1.62 over 13 games and USU at 1 over 13 games.
SITUATIONALWSU @ USU
WSU: 55.2 penalty yards per game to USU's 70.2
WSU is at 55.2 penalty yards per game over 5 games; USU is at 70.2 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season WSU was at 56.1 over 13 games and USU at 60.2 over 13 games.
TRENCHESIND @ PIT
PIT: 112.8 rushing yards allowed per game to IND's 131
IND is at 131 rushing yards allowed per game over 4 games; PIT is at 112.8 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 8.
PASS RUSHDEN @ LAC
LAC: 2.5 sacks recorded per game to DEN's 2
DEN is at 2 sacks recorded per game over 4 games; LAC is at 2.5 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 8.
PACE & SCRIPTDEN @ LAC
DEN: 23.5 points allowed per game to LAC's 26.5
DEN is at 23.5 points allowed per game over 4 games; LAC is at 26.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season DEN was at 18.3 over 17 games and LAC at 20 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSTB @ DAL
DAL: 0.6 interceptions thrown per game to TB's 1
TB is at 1 interceptions thrown per game over 5 games; DAL is at 0.6 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 8. Last season TB was at 0.65 over 17 games and DAL at 0.71 over 17 games.
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
REPLACEMENTMIN @ NO
Josh Oliver (TE) is on injured reserve for MIN
The Vikings placed Oliver (biceps) on injured reserve Tuesday, Craig Peters of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 30.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ NO
Donovan Jackson (G) is on injured reserve for MIN
Jackson (knee) was placed on injured reserve by the Vikings on Tuesday. Reported Oct 7.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ ATL
Jovaughn Gwyn (G) is on injured reserve for BAL
The Ravens moved Gwyn (ankle) to injured reserve Saturday. Reported Oct 4.
REPLACEMENTIOWA @ WASH
Hank Brown (QB) is a game-time decision for IOWA
Quarterback suffered an AC joint sprain against Ohio State; October 8 reporting establishes a game-time decision for Washington. Uncertainties For Washington and Iowa; Prediction (2026-10-08)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Keyjuan Brown (RB) is questionable for LOU
RB; condition unspecified. FSU defensive lineman's injury status upgraded for Louisville game — FSU Wire/AOL; published 00:24 UTC; concerns October 9 game (2026-10-09)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Cason Henry (OL) is questionable for LOU
OL; condition unspecified. FSU defensive lineman's injury status upgraded for Louisville game — FSU Wire/AOL; published 00:24 UTC; concerns October 9 game (2026-10-09)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Daylen Russell (DL) is questionable for LOU
DL; condition unspecified. FSU defensive lineman's injury status upgraded for Louisville game — FSU Wire/AOL; published 00:24 UTC; concerns October 9 game (2026-10-09)
SITUATIONALMIN @ NO
NO is on a short week
Both teams are on short weeks: Minnesota on 5 days and New Orleans on 4. The Saints have the tighter turnaround even though they are at home, so their practice week was the most compressed. Neither side gets a real rest edge here, which makes the schedule a minor factor. Late-week injury news matters more than the spacing in this one.
SITUATIONALBAL @ ATL
ATL is on a short week
Baltimore comes in on 5 days and Atlanta on 4, so both teams had a compressed week and the Falcons had the least time despite hosting. Short weeks usually mean simpler game plans and less recovery for anyone nursing an injury. The spacing gap is small, so it should not drive a view on its own. Check which listed players are cleared late in the week.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ MIA
Jalen Davis (CB) is on injured reserve for CIN
The Bengals placed Davis (hamstring) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Sep 29.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ NO
Nick Samac (C) is on injured reserve for MIN
The Vikings placed Samac (knee) on injured reserve Saturday, Craig Peters of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 26.
REPLACEMENTCHI @ GB
Zach Bako-Bewele (OT) is on injured reserve for GB
The Packers placed Bako-Bewele (knee) on injured reserve Monday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. Reported Sep 29.
REPLACEMENTDEN @ LAC
Trey Pipkins III (OT) is on injured reserve for LAC
The Chargers placed Pipkins (knee) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Sep 26.
REPLACEMENTBUF @ LAR
Myles Garrett (DE) is on injured reserve for LAR
Garrett (knee) is facing a six-week recovery from surgery on his left knee, but the pass rusher is determined to be back before then, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network and ESPN reports. Reported Sep 27.
REPLACEMENTIOWA @ WASH
Landen Hatchett (OL) is questionable for WASH
Starting center remains questionable in the October 8 preview's account of the midweek availability report. Recovering from a right-wrist injury and two surgeries; Fisch expressed optimism about his return against Iowa. Uncertainties For Washington and Iowa; Prediction (2026-10-08) Jedd Fisch will be 'shocked' if Landen Hatchett doesn't play vs. Iowa (2026-10-05)
REPLACEMENTIOWA @ WASH
Ty Hudkins (DB) is questionable for IOWA
Safety listed as questionable by Ferentz on October 6; the coach said Iowa could not count on him for this week. Condition unspecified. Kirk Ferentz News Conference Transcript | Oct. 6 (2026-10-06)
SITUATIONALHOU @ TEN
HOU (0-4) at TEN (0-4), a division game
Two winless division rivals meet: Houston is 0-4 at -25 and Tennessee is 0-4 at -28, both on four-game skids. Tennessee is 0-2 at home and Houston lost its one road game. The numbers are nearly identical, so this looks like a true coin flip where any spread should be small.
SITUATIONALISU @ BYU
Iowa State at No. 8 BYU
BYU is 4-0 with 1144 poll points and climbed two spots this week, so voters are rewarding a perfect start. The sheet does not say who those four wins came against, so whether the ranking is earned or a product of a soft schedule is an open question. Iowa State comes in unranked, which puts the respect gap squarely on BYU's side. At home and undefeated, BYU has the most to lose here, and that kind of spot tends to draw public money toward the ranked side.
REPLACEMENTTB @ DAL
P.J. Locke (S) is on injured reserve for DAL
Locke went on injured reserve with a foot injury, Sep 26, so he will not face Tampa Bay. Jalen Thompson is also on IR, so Dallas is down two safeties against the Bucs.
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
REPLACEMENTTB @ DAL
Jonathan Bullard (DT) is on injured reserve for DAL
The Cowboys placed Bullard (calf) on injured reserve Wednesday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. Reported Oct 1.
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
REPLACEMENTDEN @ LAC
Rashawn Slater (OT) is on injured reserve for LAC
LAC lists Rashawn Slater as on injured reserve on the injury report. Reported Oct 9.
REPLACEMENTDET @ ARI
Thomas Harper (S) is on injured reserve for DET
The Lions placed Harper (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Sep 26.
REPLACEMENTNYG @ WSH
Trey Amos (CB) is on injured reserve for WSH
WSH lists Trey Amos as on injured reserve on the injury report. Reported Oct 10.
REPLACEMENTNYG @ WSH
Leo Chenal (LB) is on injured reserve for WSH
The Commanders placed Chenal (neck) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Sep 29.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ TEN
Jake Hummel (LB) is on injured reserve for HOU
The Texans placed Hummel (groin) on injured reserve Saturday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports. Reported Sep 26.
REPLACEMENTNYG @ WSH
Brian Burns (LB) is on injured reserve for NYG
The Giants placed Burns (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday, Dan Salomone of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 29.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ TEN
Mario Edwards Jr. (DT) is on injured reserve for HOU
The Texans placed Edwards on injured reserve Wednesday. Reported Oct 1.
REPLACEMENTTB @ DAL
Jalen Thompson (S) is on injured reserve for DAL
Thompson went on injured reserve with a hamstring injury on Sep 30, so he misses the Tampa Bay game. With P.J. Locke also on IR, the Dallas safety group is thin. That matters against a passing offense like Tampa Bay's.
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
REPLACEMENTHOU @ TEN
Jackson Slater (G) is on injured reserve for TEN
The Titans placed Slater (foot) on injured reserve Tuesday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 30.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ TEN
Fernando Carmona (G) is on injured reserve for TEN
The Titans placed Carmona (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 30.
SITUATIONALIND @ PIT
IND (2-2) at PIT (2-2)
Same record, different paths: IND has won 2 straight and is -2, while PIT has dropped its last game and is -10. PIT has lost both road games and won both at home, going 2-0 there, so its whole season has split by venue. IND is 1-1 away from home. Two home games is a small sample, but if you trust PIT's home form, this is the spot it shows up, while IND's margin says it has been the slightly better team overall.
REPLACEMENTIND @ PIT
Gennings Dunker (G) is on injured reserve for PIT
The Steelers placed Dunker (knee) on injured reserve Saturday, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports. Reported Sep 26.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ NO
Lorenzo Styles Jr. (S) is on injured reserve for NO
NO lists Lorenzo Styles Jr. as on injured reserve on the injury report. Reported Oct 8.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NE
Greg Van Roten (G) is on injured reserve for NE
The Patriots placed Van Roten (thigh) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Sep 30.
SITUATIONALBUF @ LAR
BUF is on a short week
Buffalo and the Rams both come in on 5 days of rest, so neither team gets a scheduling edge. With equally short prep time, game-day availability matters more than the spacing.
HEAD-TO-HEADDEN @ LAC
DEN and LAC are even since 2025
These two split last season, and the home team won both times. The Chargers edged Denver 23-20 on Sep 21, then Denver held them to 3 points in a 19-3 win on Jan 4. That is two games with opposite results, so there is no clear edge in the series. The game moves back to Los Angeles, where the first meeting was a three-point game, which points toward a tight one rather than the January blowout.
HEAD-TO-HEADNYG @ WSH
WSH lead the series with NYG since 2025
Washington won both meetings last season, 21-6 at home on Sep 7 and 29-21 at the Giants on Dec 14. The first was one-way, the second was an eight-point game where the Giants scored far more. Two games is a small sample. Washington is home for this one, which matches the setting of the more comfortable win, while the December game suggests the Giants can keep it closer than the opener did.
HEAD-TO-HEADHOU @ TEN
HOU lead the series with TEN since 2025
Houston swept both meetings last season, but the two games looked very different: a 26-0 shutout at home on Sep 28, then a 16-13 squeaker in Tennessee on Nov 16. Neither game produced many points, and Tennessee scored 13 total across the pair. Two games is a small sample. The road game in Tennessee was the tight one, so a bettor looking at this spot should lean on that 16-13 result more than the shutout when sizing up the margin.
SITUATIONALTB @ DAL
TB is on a short week
Both Tampa Bay and Dallas show 1 day since their last game, which is an unusual spacing for a football schedule. Since each side is in the same spot, the calendar gives neither team an edge. Confirm the schedule before leaning on rest as a factor here.
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
SITUATIONALDEN @ LAC
DEN is on a short week
Denver and the Chargers are both on 5 days of rest, so the calendar is neutral here. Both teams had a short week to heal and plan, which makes final injury reports the key read.
SITUATIONALSF @ SEA
SF is on a short week
San Francisco and Seattle are both on 5 days of rest, so the calendar is even in this division game. Each side had a short week to recover, which puts the weight on late injury news.
SITUATIONALDET @ ARI
DET is on a short week
Detroit and Arizona each come in on 5 days of rest, so the schedule gives neither side an advantage. Both had the same compressed week, so focus on who is healthy by kickoff.
SITUATIONALCLE @ NYJ
CLE (3-1) at NYJ (1-3)
Cleveland has won three straight to reach 3-1, but it is -14 on the year, which means the record flatters a team that has been outscored. The Jets are 1-3 at only -8 and lost their one home game. This is the clearest case on the slate of records running ahead of margins, so a bettor should expect a closer game than 3-1 versus 1-3 implies.
SITUATIONALPHI @ JAX
PHI is on a short week
Philadelphia and Jacksonville are both on 5 days of rest, so neither side gets a calendar edge. Both staffs had the same compressed week to heal and prepare, which makes injury news the thing to track.
SITUATIONALHOU @ TEN
HOU is on a short week
Houston and Tennessee both come in on 5 days of rest, so the schedule is a wash. Both sides had a short week to recover and prep, which shifts the focus to who is healthy by game day.
SITUATIONALCIN @ MIA
CIN is on a short week
Cincinnati and Miami are both on 5 days of rest, so neither team gains anything from the calendar. With an equally short week on both sides, late injury updates matter more than the spacing.
SITUATIONALLV @ NE
LV is on a short week
Las Vegas and New England each come in on 5 days of rest, so the schedule favors neither side. Both had a compressed week, which puts the weight on who is cleared to play.
SITUATIONALNYG @ WSH
NYG is on a short week
The Giants and Washington are both on 5 days of rest, so the calendar is even. Each staff had the same short week to recover, so game-day health is the thing to watch.
SITUATIONALCHI @ GB
CHI is on a short week
Chicago and Green Bay both come in on 5 days of rest, so neither side has a scheduling edge. With an equally short prep week, late injury news carries more weight than rest.
PRACTICE REPORTBUF @ LAR
Konata Mumpfield
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTBUF @ LAR
Ar'maj Reed-Adams
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTBAL @ ATL
Kyle Hamilton
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTBAL @ ATL
Rashod Bateman
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTBAL @ ATL
John Simpson
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTBAL @ ATL
Chris Moore
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTBAL @ ATL
Mark Andrews
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTBAL @ ATL
Michael Jerrell
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTBAL @ ATL
Cameron Thomas
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ SEA
Dre Greenlaw
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ SEA
Jaden Dugger
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ SEA
Romello Height
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ SEA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ SEA
Nehemiah Pritchett
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ SEA
Ty Okada
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ SEA
Christian McCaffrey
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ SEA
Beau Stephens
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ SEA
Trent Williams
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ SEA
Kaelon Black
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ SEA
Leonard Williams
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ SEA
Tyrice Knight
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ SEA
Patrick O'Connell
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ SEA
Ernest Jones IV
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTDET @ ARI
Jordan Burch
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTDET @ ARI
Jeremiyah Love
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTDET @ ARI
DJ Wonnum
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTDET @ ARI
Isaac Seumalo
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTDET @ ARI
Josh Sweat
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTDET @ ARI
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTDEN @ LAC
Tyler Badie
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTDEN @ LAC
Alec Ingold
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTDET @ ARI
Budda Baker
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTTB @ DAL
Ko Kieft
Full practice
P Edge side won; final 24-16
PRACTICE REPORTTB @ DAL
Joey Porter Jr.
Illness · Full practice
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
PRACTICE REPORTTB @ DAL
Josiah Trotter
Full practice
P Edge side won; final 24-16
PRACTICE REPORTBUF @ LAR
Aaron Donald
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTBUF @ LAR
Davante Adams
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTBUF @ LAR
Ray Davis
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTBUF @ LAR
Damar Hamlin
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTBUF @ LAR
Dorian Williams
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTBUF @ LAR
Bradley Chubb
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTBUF @ LAR
Colby Parkinson
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTBUF @ LAR
Keon Coleman
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTBUF @ LAR
T.J. Sanders
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTBUF @ LAR
Terrel Bernard
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTBUF @ LAR
Joe Andreessen
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTHOU @ TEN
Tony Pollard
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTPHI @ JAX
LeQuint Allen Jr.
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTPHI @ JAX
Jihaad Campbell
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTPHI @ JAX
Dallas Goedert
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTPHI @ JAX
Quinyon Mitchell
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTPHI @ JAX
Jakobi Meyers
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTPHI @ JAX
Fred Johnson
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTPHI @ JAX
Jalen Hurts
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTPHI @ JAX
E.J. Jenkins
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTPHI @ JAX
Anton Harrison
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTPHI @ JAX
Zack Baun
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTPHI @ JAX
Cole Van Lanen
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTTB @ DAL
Chase McLaughlin
Full practice
P Edge side won; final 24-16
PRACTICE REPORTTB @ DAL
CeeDee Lamb
Full practice
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
PRACTICE REPORTTB @ DAL
James Houston
Coach's Decision · Full practice
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
PRACTICE REPORTTB @ DAL
Alijah Clark
Full practice
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
PRACTICE REPORTTB @ DAL
Malik Hooker
Full practice
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
PRACTICE REPORTTB @ DAL
Rueben Bain Jr.
Full practice
P Edge side won; final 24-16
PRACTICE REPORTTB @ DAL
Tyler Goodson
Full practice
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
PRACTICE REPORTDEN @ LAC
Dalvin Tomlinson
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTDEN @ LAC
Adam Trautman
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTDEN @ LAC
Dondrea Tillman
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTDEN @ LAC
D.J. Jones
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTDEN @ LAC
Deane Leonard
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTDEN @ LAC
Khalil Mack
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTDEN @ LAC
Zach Allen
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTDEN @ LAC
Cam Hart
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTCHI @ GB
D'Andre Swift
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTCHI @ GB
Grady Jarrett
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTCHI @ GB
Joe Thuney
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTCHI @ GB
Darnell Wright
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTCHI @ GB
Cam Lewis
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTCHI @ GB
Brandon Cisse
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTCHI @ GB
Jonah Jackson
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Malik Nabers
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Chig Okonkwo
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Ben Sinnott
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Deonte Banks
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Najee Harris
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Javon Kinlaw
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Chris Manhertz
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Nick Allegretti
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Fabian Moreau
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Jeremy Reaves
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Sonny Styles
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Isaiah Likely
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Cam Skattebo
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Sam Cosmi
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Jayden Daniels
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Treylon Burks
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Andrew Thomas
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Frankie Luvu
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
K'Lavon Chaisson
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTNYG @ WSH
Bryan Hudson
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTIND @ PIT
Cameron Heyward
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTIND @ PIT
Grover Stewart
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTIND @ PIT
Akeem Davis-Gaither
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTIND @ PIT
Jonathan Taylor
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTCLE @ NYJ
Mekhi Blackmon
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTCLE @ NYJ
Elgton Jenkins
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTCLE @ NYJ
Jarvis Brownlee Jr.
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTCLE @ NYJ
Mason Taylor
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTCLE @ NYJ
Grant Delpit
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTMIN @ NO
Jayden Price
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTMIN @ NO
Mike Reid
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTMIN @ NO
Chris Olave
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTMIN @ NO
Davon Godchaux
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTMIN @ NO
Carl Granderson
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTMIN @ NO
Noah Fant
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTMIN @ NO
Brett Thorson
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTMIN @ NO
Tyler Shough
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTLV @ NE
Segun Olubi
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTLV @ NE
Dareke Young
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTLV @ NE
Brenden Schooler
Back · Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTLV @ NE
Jackson Powers-Johnson
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTLV @ NE
Cody White
Full practice
SITUATIONALIOWA @ WASH
No. 20 Iowa at Washington
Iowa is 4-1 but dropped six spots this week and sits on just 367 points, which means voters are cooling on them and they are close to falling out. A ranking that low and sliding is closer to borrowed respect than a firm vote of confidence. Washington is unranked, so the poll gap looks bigger on paper than the trend suggests. A road loss likely drops Iowa out entirely, so think of this as a fragile favorite traveling into a spot where the ranking carries less weight than the number next to it.
PRACTICE REPORTLV @ NE
Folorunso Fatukasi
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTLV @ NE
Brock Bowers
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTLV @ NE
Spencer Burford
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTLV @ NE
Drake Maye
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTCIN @ MIA
Barrett Carter
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTCIN @ MIA
Jordan Battle
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTCIN @ MIA
Dalton Risner
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTCIN @ MIA
JuJu Brents
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTCIN @ MIA
Austin Jackson
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTCIN @ MIA
Dante Trader Jr.
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTCIN @ MIA
Chris Bell
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTHOU @ TEN
Gunnar Helm
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTHOU @ TEN
Logan Hall
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTHOU @ TEN
Jeffery Simmons
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTHOU @ TEN
Nate Thomas
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTHOU @ TEN
Wade Woodaz
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTHOU @ TEN
Jamal Hill
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTHOU @ TEN
Azeez Al-Shaair
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTHOU @ TEN
John Franklin-Myers
Full practice
PRACTICE REPORTHOU @ TEN
Will Anderson Jr.
Full practice
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Karon Maycock (LB) is probable for FSU
LB; condition unspecified. Florida State and Louisville release Thursday availability report ahead of Friday night clash — Tomahawk Nation; original publication October 7 at 00:57 UTC; body reports Thursday update for October 9 game (2026-10-07)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Lincoln Kienholz (QB) is probable for LOU
QB; ankle injury discussed in October 8 preview. FSU defensive lineman's injury status upgraded for Louisville game — FSU Wire/AOL; published 00:24 UTC; concerns October 9 game (2026-10-09) Preview: Seminoles look to build on record-setting performance in conference tilt with Louisville — V89 Sports; October 9 game preview (2026-10-08)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Daniel Hughes (P) is probable for FSU
Punter; condition unspecified. Florida State and Louisville release Thursday availability report ahead of Friday night clash — Tomahawk Nation; original publication October 7 at 00:57 UTC; body reports Thursday update for October 9 game (2026-10-07)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Darryll Desir (DL) is probable for FSU
DL; upgraded from questionable in latest reporting. FSU defensive lineman's injury status upgraded for Louisville game — FSU Wire/AOL; published 00:24 UTC; concerns October 9 game (2026-10-09)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Anwar O'Neal (OL) is probable for LOU
OL; condition unspecified. FSU defensive lineman's injury status upgraded for Louisville game — FSU Wire/AOL; published 00:24 UTC; concerns October 9 game (2026-10-09)
REPLACEMENTISU @ BYU
Christian Greenlaw (TE) is probable for ISU
Tight end upgraded to probable for Friday at BYU in October 8 reporting attributed to the Big 12 report; the condition is undisclosed. College Football Injury News — Christian Greenlaw: Now probable; Rylan Barnes: Ruled out (2026-10-08)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Ellis McAdoo (OL) is probable for LOU
OL; condition unspecified. FSU defensive lineman's injury status upgraded for Louisville game — FSU Wire/AOL; published 00:24 UTC; concerns October 9 game (2026-10-09)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Antonio Cromartie Jr. (DB) is probable for FSU
DB; condition unspecified. Florida State and Louisville release Thursday availability report ahead of Friday night clash — Tomahawk Nation; original publication October 7 at 00:57 UTC; body reports Thursday update for October 9 game (2026-10-07)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Joshua Donald (DL) is probable for LOU
DL; condition unspecified. FSU defensive lineman's injury status upgraded for Louisville game — FSU Wire/AOL; published 00:24 UTC; concerns October 9 game (2026-10-09)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
AJ Green (DL) is probable for LOU
DL; condition unspecified. FSU defensive lineman's injury status upgraded for Louisville game — FSU Wire/AOL; published 00:24 UTC; concerns October 9 game (2026-10-09)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Koen Entringer (DB) is probable for LOU
DB; condition unspecified. FSU defensive lineman's injury status upgraded for Louisville game — FSU Wire/AOL; published 00:24 UTC; concerns October 9 game (2026-10-09)
REPLACEMENTFSU @ LOU
Mikai Gbayor (LB) is probable for FSU
LB; condition unspecified. Florida State and Louisville release Thursday availability report ahead of Friday night clash — Tomahawk Nation; original publication October 7 at 00:57 UTC; body reports Thursday update for October 9 game (2026-10-07)
HEAD-TO-HEADCLE @ NYJ
NYJ lead the series with CLE since 2025
The Jets beat Cleveland 27-20 at home on Nov 9, the only meeting since 2025. It was a seven-point game, competitive throughout the scoreline, and this one is again at the Jets. One game is a small sample, so the series lead says little on its own. The useful takeaway is that the last meeting in this building was a one-score game.
HEAD-TO-HEADTB @ DAL
TB lead the series with DAL since 2025
This is a single meeting: Tampa Bay won 24-16 at Dallas on Oct 8, an eight-point game. One game is too thin to call a trend in either direction. Use it as a rough scoring reference for how these offenses matched up, and weigh current form more heavily than this one result.
P Edge side lost; final 24-16
HEAD-TO-HEADCIN @ MIA
CIN lead the series with MIA since 2025
There is one meeting to go on: Cincinnati won 45-21 at Miami on Dec 21. That was a lopsided game with the Bengals putting up 45, and this matchup is again in Miami. One game is a thin sample, so it tells you the Bengals offense had its way that day more than it tells you how this one goes. Use it as a reason to look at how each team's offense and defense are playing now rather than as a series trend.
HEAD-TO-HEADLV @ NE
LV lead the series with NE since 2025
The only recent meeting was Sep 7, 2025, when Las Vegas won 20-13 at New England. It was a one-score, low-scoring game, and this one is again in New England. One game is all there is, so it says little beyond that the last meeting was close and modest on points. A bettor should weigh current form far more than this single result.
HEAD-TO-HEADIND @ PIT
PIT lead the series with IND since 2025
Pittsburgh beat Indianapolis 27-20 at home on Nov 2, the only meeting since 2025. That was a seven-point game, and this one is again in Pittsburgh. With one game, the series lead is thin evidence. What it does show is a one-score result in this same setting, which is a reasonable baseline before factoring in how each team looks this season.
HEAD-TO-HEADISU @ BYU
BYU lead the series with ISU since 2025
There is exactly one recent meeting to go on: BYU won 41-27 at Iowa State on Oct 25 last season. That was a comfortable road win, but one game is a thin record, and this time the game moves to BYU's place, so the setting flips. The sheet does not say what has changed on either roster since, so lean on how each team looks now more than on last year's score.
HEAD-TO-HEADWSU @ USU
WSU lead the series with USU since 2025
The recent series is a single game: Washington State won 34-21 at Utah State on Dec 22 last season. The rematch is in the same building, so the Cougars have already won on this field. One result is a small sample, and the sheet does not say what has changed for either side since, so weigh how both teams are playing this season more than that one score.

Graded results

Games

W
BYU Cougars -11.5 -105
NCAAF · 10-24
L
Florida State Seminoles +3.5 -108
NCAAF · 20-44
W
Iowa Hawkeyes ML +126
NCAAF · 41-24
L
Utah State Aggies -3.5 -115
NCAAF · 16-17

Props

L
Aiden Flora · under
Iowa State Cyclones @ BYU Cougars · Actual 86
W
Eli Wood · over
Washington State Cougars @ Utah State Aggies · Actual 1
L
Kamari Moulton · under
Iowa Hawkeyes @ Washington Huskies · Actual 208
L
Lincoln Kienholz · over
Florida State Seminoles @ Louisville Cardinals · Actual 140

Sports picks for Friday, October 9, 2026

Game picks

Florida State
+3.5

Iowa
Moneyline

Utah State
-3.5

BYU
-11.5

Player props

Lincoln Kienholz
Passing Yards over 240.5

Kamari Moulton
Rushing Yards under 72.5

Eli Wood
Anytime Touchdown over 0.5

Aiden Flora
Rushing Yards under 66.5

Research

Graded results

Games

Props