Arizona State Sun Devils at BYU Cougars
O/U 47.5 · SPREAD BYU Cougars -16.5 · LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Arizona State Sun Devils +16.5 -110
- Published odds
- -110
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 20-27
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
FANATICS · 42 moves| Market | Opened Oct 25 6:00 AM | Close Sat 3:27 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | BYU Cougars -15.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -17.5 (-105) | +2 |
| TOTAL | 51 (-110) | 47 (-110) | −4 |
| MONEYLINE | BYU Cougars -800 | BYU Cougars -900 | −100 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 25 6:00 AM | BYU Cougars -15.5 (-110) | 51 (-110) | BYU Cougars -800 · Arizona State Sun Devils +550 |
| Oct 25 9:31 AM | BYU Cougars -15.5 (-110) | 51 (-110) | BYU Cougars -750 · Arizona State Sun Devils +525 |
| Oct 25 10:31 AM | BYU Cougars -15.5 (-105) | 51 (-115) | BYU Cougars -750 · Arizona State Sun Devils +525 |
| Oct 25 12:31 PM | BYU Cougars -14.5 (-110) | 50 (-110) | BYU Cougars -700 · Arizona State Sun Devils +500 |
| Oct 25 2:31 PM | BYU Cougars -14.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -700 · Arizona State Sun Devils +500 |
| Oct 25 4:31 PM | BYU Cougars -15 (-110) | 49.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -700 · Arizona State Sun Devils +500 |
| Oct 25 8:31 PM | BYU Cougars -16 (-110) | 49.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -750 · Arizona State Sun Devils +525 |
| Oct 25 11:32 PM | BYU Cougars -15 (-110) | 49.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -750 · Arizona State Sun Devils +525 |
| Oct 26 6:00 AM | BYU Cougars -14.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -700 · Arizona State Sun Devils +500 |
| Oct 26 11:32 AM | BYU Cougars -16 (-110) | 49.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -750 · Arizona State Sun Devils +525 |
| Oct 26 3:33 PM | BYU Cougars -16 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -750 · Arizona State Sun Devils +525 |
| Oct 26 4:33 PM | BYU Cougars -16.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -750 · Arizona State Sun Devils +525 |
| Oct 26 8:03 PM | BYU Cougars -16 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -750 · Arizona State Sun Devils +525 |
| Oct 26 10:05 PM | BYU Cougars -16.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -750 · Arizona State Sun Devils +525 |
| Oct 27 9:00 AM | BYU Cougars -16.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -800 · Arizona State Sun Devils +550 |
| Oct 27 10:01 AM | BYU Cougars -16 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -750 · Arizona State Sun Devils +525 |
| Oct 27 12:01 PM | BYU Cougars -16.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -750 · Arizona State Sun Devils +525 |
| Oct 27 2:01 PM | BYU Cougars -16 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -750 · Arizona State Sun Devils +525 |
| Oct 28 2:18 PM | BYU Cougars -16.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -750 · Arizona State Sun Devils +525 |
| Oct 28 2:48 PM | BYU Cougars -16 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -750 · Arizona State Sun Devils +525 |
| Oct 28 4:18 PM | BYU Cougars -16.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -750 · Arizona State Sun Devils +525 |
| Oct 28 5:18 PM | BYU Cougars -16 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -750 · Arizona State Sun Devils +525 |
| Oct 28 6:18 PM | BYU Cougars -16.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -750 · Arizona State Sun Devils +525 |
| Oct 28 9:50 PM | BYU Cougars -16 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -750 · Arizona State Sun Devils +525 |
| Oct 29 6:00 AM | BYU Cougars -16.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-105) | BYU Cougars -800 · Arizona State Sun Devils +550 |
| Thu 12:18 PM | BYU Cougars -16.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -800 · Arizona State Sun Devils +550 |
| Thu 1:02 PM | BYU Cougars -16.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-105) | BYU Cougars -800 · Arizona State Sun Devils +550 |
| Thu 3:02 PM | BYU Cougars -16.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -750 · Arizona State Sun Devils +525 |
| Fri 12:37 AM | BYU Cougars -16.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -800 · Arizona State Sun Devils +550 |
| Fri 11:01 AM | BYU Cougars -16.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-105) | BYU Cougars -750 · Arizona State Sun Devils +525 |
| Fri 3:32 PM | BYU Cougars -16.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-105) | BYU Cougars -800 · Arizona State Sun Devils +550 |
| Fri 5:10 PM | BYU Cougars -16.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-105) | BYU Cougars -750 · Arizona State Sun Devils +525 |
| Sat 4:45 AM | BYU Cougars -16.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-105) | BYU Cougars -800 · Arizona State Sun Devils +550 |
| Sat 9:30 AM | BYU Cougars -16.5 (-110) | 48 (-110) | BYU Cougars -800 · Arizona State Sun Devils +550 |
| Sat 9:31 AM | BYU Cougars -16.5 (-110) | 47.5 (-115) | BYU Cougars -800 · Arizona State Sun Devils +550 |
| Sat 11:44 AM | BYU Cougars -16.5 (-110) | 47.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -800 · Arizona State Sun Devils +550 |
| Sat 12:04 PM | BYU Cougars -16.5 (-115) | 47.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -800 · Arizona State Sun Devils +550 |
| Sat 1:35 PM | BYU Cougars -16.5 (-115) | 47.5 (-115) | BYU Cougars -800 · Arizona State Sun Devils +550 |
| Sat 2:15 PM | BYU Cougars -17 (-110) | 48 (-110) | BYU Cougars -800 · Arizona State Sun Devils +550 |
| Sat 2:46 PM | BYU Cougars -17 (-110) | 47.5 (-115) | BYU Cougars -800 · Arizona State Sun Devils +550 |
| Sat 3:07 PM | BYU Cougars -17 (-110) | 47.5 (-115) | BYU Cougars -850 · Arizona State Sun Devils +575 |
| Sat 3:17 PM | BYU Cougars -17.5 (-105) | 47.5 (-115) | BYU Cougars -900 · Arizona State Sun Devils +600 |
| CLOSESat 3:27 PM | BYU Cougars -17.5 (-105) | 47 (-110) | BYU Cougars -900 · Arizona State Sun Devils +600 |
The read
Overcast skies and a chance of light rain hang over LaVell Edwards Stadium, and No. 8 BYU is home after its first loss, a double-overtime stunner at UCF. Arizona State rolls into Provo likely handing true freshman Jake Fette a first college start. Everything says BYU wins. I'm not convinced it wins by 17.
Here's the problem with laying 16.5: BYU has beaten one FBS team by more than that all season, and it was a Colorado State defense that has allowed 49 or more four times. BYU's other FBS margins are 11, 14, 7 and 4, plus the 8-point loss at UCF. BYU plays slow, never more than 10 drives in a game, and blowouts need possessions or gifts.
Yes, ASU's three losses all came by 28 or more. But look at how they happened: 9 giveaways in those games, three of them interceptions returned for scores. In ASU's other four games there was 1 giveaway total. All five ASU interceptions came from Cutter Boley, who isn't starting. And BYU's defense doesn't take the ball away: 4 takeaways in six FBS games, none at UCF.
The other blowout ingredient was ASU's run defense, which got gashed for 268 yards by Texas Tech and 259 by Baylor. BYU can't run like that without LJ Martin, who's out again. Since Martin last played, BYU has run for 177, 121 and 121.
Dillingham's plan should be simple: feed Cardae Mack, who went for 159 yards and 4 scores against Kansas State. BYU just gave up 174 rushing yards at UCF with a season-high 18 missed tackles. Running the ball shortens the game, and that helps the dog. BYU's corners are thin too, with Evan Johnson, Jonathan Kabeya and Seth Shigg out. Reed Harris had 147 yards against K-State with backup quarterbacks throwing. One late shot is a backdoor cover.
The risk is real. ASU's line is banged up, with Tana Alo-Tupuola out and two more linemen doubtful, and a freshman under pressure could hand BYU short fields. Both of ASU's true road games ended in 28-point losses.
But with Utah on deck for BYU and a number this big, I'll take the 16.5.
Injuries noted
Arizona State Sun Devils: Lyrik Rawls (questionable) — DB #2 listed Questionable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Albert Smith III (probable) — DE #3 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Mikey Keene (questionable) — QB #12 listed Questionable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Marques Uini (doubtful) — OL #50 listed Doubtful on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Filiva'a Lokotui (probable) — OL #57 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Tana Alo-Tupuola (out) — OL #58 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Wade Helton (questionable) — OL #64 listed Questionable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Luke Baklenko (probable) — OL #78 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Xander Ruggeroli (doubtful) — OL #79 listed Doubtful on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Harry Hassmann (out) — WR #89 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report
BYU Cougars: Evan Johnson (out) — CB #0 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Jonathan Kabeya (out) — CB #2 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; LJ Martin (out) — RB #4 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Preston Rex (probable) — RB #12 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Pierson Watson (out) — LB #23 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Joseph Douglas (probable) — S #37 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Seth Shigg (out) — CB #39 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Kendal Wall (out) — DE #46 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Jake Fette is ASU's projected starter
PROJECTEDJake Fette is ASU's projected starting quarterback. Arizona Sports (Oct 30, 2026): true freshman Fette is 'in line to start' at No. 8 BYU, which would be his first college start, depending on Mikey Keene's availability; Kenny Dillingham said 'The plan is probably Jake, but Mikey practiced all week.' Keene (knee) is questionable and a game-time decision who would start if able. Sports Illustrated via Yahoo Sports (Oct 29): sources say the decision will be made at game time and Dillingham has not confirmed a starter. Fette led two fourth-quarter touchdown drives after Keene's injury in the 28-17 win over Kansas State; the KJZZ (Oct 29) and KSL (Oct 28) previews also cover him. No verified passing sample is available yet.
Bear Bachmeier is BYU's projected starter
8.30 Y/ABear Bachmeier is BYU's projected starting quarterback. Deseret News via Yahoo Sports (Oct 30, 2026) says Bachmeier and No. 8 BYU host Arizona State on Saturday and calls Enoch Watson his backup; assistant QBs coach Tyler Hughes praised his daily work. No current-week team statement or depth chart says he starts. The checked sources report no injury or limited practice for him, and Deseret News (Oct 24) reports no injury to him in the UCF game. 2026 line: 1469 passing yards, 64.4% completions, 8.30 yards per attempt, 10-3 TD-INT over 7 games.
TRENCHES
BYU: 96.1 rushing yards allowed per game to ASU's 146.4
50.3 YPGASU is at 146.4 rushing yards allowed per game over 7 games; BYU is at 96.1 over 7 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 30.
PACE & SCRIPT
BYU: 18.6 points allowed per game to ASU's 29.9
11.3 PPGASU is at 29.9 points allowed per game over 7 games; BYU is at 18.6 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 30. Last season ASU was at 24.5 over 13 games and BYU at 19.1 over 14 games.
MISMATCH
BYU: 54.8% on third down to ASU's 30.1%
54.8 VS 30.1BYU is converting 54.8% of its third downs, up from 42% last season, while Arizona State is at 30.1%, close to its 33.2% a year ago. BYU's number is high and could drift down, but Arizona State's struggles look steady across two seasons. BYU keeps drives alive at home and Arizona State has to stay out of third and long. Possession length and time of possession are the angle here.
REPLACEMENT
Tana Alo-Tupuola (OL) is out for ASU
OUTOL #58 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Harry Hassmann (WR) is out for ASU
OUTWR #89 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Evan Johnson (CB) is out for BYU
OUTCB #0 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Jonathan Kabeya (CB) is out for BYU
OUTCB #2 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
LJ Martin (RB) is out for BYU
OUTRB #4 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Pierson Watson (LB) is out for BYU
OUTLB #23 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Seth Shigg (CB) is out for BYU
OUTCB #39 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Kendal Wall (DE) is out for BYU
OUTDE #46 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
SITUATIONAL
ASU: 2.71 fourth-down attempts per game to BYU's 1
1.71 ATT/GASU is at 2.71 fourth-down attempts per game over 7 games; BYU is at 1 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 30. Last season ASU was at 2.77 over 13 games and BYU at 2.21 over 14 games.
ASU: 267.4 team passing yards per game to BYU's 214.1
53.3 YPGASU is at 267.4 team passing yards per game over 7 games; BYU is at 214.1 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 30. Last season ASU was at 223.7 over 13 games and BYU at 221.4 over 14 games.
TEAM RECORD
Big 12 game: ASU 2-2, BYU 3-1 in conference
CONFERENCEThese two share the Big 12. ASU is 2-2 against it, BYU is 3-1. 2026 standings through 2026-10-31.
AFTER GARY
ASU +16.5 → +17.5
NOW +1Gary's number was 16.5; the same book now shows 17.5.
About this analysis
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- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
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- Daily picks first stored October 31, 2026 at 8:16 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, fanatics, betrivers, betmgm, caesars.
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