Friday night at the Bounce House is UCF's 10th annual Space Game. Baylor arrives five days after firing Dave Aranda, with Joe Klanderman running the team and still calling the defense. The market makes the visitors the favorite. I'll take the home team at plus money. Start with the résumés. Both teams are 3-3 against FBS opponents. UCF is 3-0 at home against FBS teams, including a 39-31 double-overtime win over BYU, a 6-1 team whose only loss is that game. All three UCF losses came on the road against teams with winning records. Baylor lost to TCU and Kansas, both 3-4, and to Auburn. The common opponent says plenty: UCF beat TCU 21-13 at home. Baylor lost 6-17 to TCU at home, with DJ Lagway going 22-of-53 and three red-zone trips producing zero touchdowns. That's the Baylor offense in a nutshell. In Lagway's five starts, Baylor converted 33 of 90 third downs and scored touchdowns on 10 of 22 red-zone trips. Lagway is completing 52% of passes at 6.2 yards per attempt. UCF has scored touchdowns on 15 of 21 red-zone trips in Keyone Jenkins' FBS starts, and Jenkins has 11 touchdown passes against 3 interceptions. Baylor also drew 12 penalties for 116 yards at Kansas and blew an 11-point third-quarter lead there. Tonight's gusts to 24 mph hurt a high-volume, low-completion passing game more than a UCF offense that ran 40 times in each of its last two games. The worry is UCF's secondary. Demari Henderson has started every game with a lineup on file, and is out after getting hurt in overtime against BYU. DJ Bell sits again. UCF already allows 7.6 yards per attempt to FBS teams, and Gavin Freeman, with 58 catches for 678 yards, will get chances. Baylor's defense is the best unit on the field: 23 sacks in six FBS games, with opponents converting 36% on third down. Jenkins was just cleared from concussion protocol, and if Jenkins goes down, the backup is Alonza Barnett III on a bad hamstring. That's why this is a lean, not a hammer. I see this game as close to a coin flip, and +110 pays better than one. I'll back UCF to win it outright at home.
Friday night at the Bounce House is UCF's 10th annual Space Game. Baylor arrives five days after firing Dave Aranda, with Joe Klanderman running the team and still calling the defense. The market makes the visitors the favorite. I'll take the home team at plus money.
Start with the résumés. Both teams are 3-3 against FBS opponents. UCF is 3-0 at home against FBS teams, including a 39-31 double-overtime win over BYU, a 6-1 team whose only loss is that game. All three UCF losses came on the road against teams with winning records. Baylor lost to TCU and Kansas, both 3-4, and to Auburn. The common opponent says plenty: UCF beat TCU 21-13 at home. Baylor lost 6-17 to TCU at home, with DJ Lagway going 22-of-53 and three red-zone trips producing zero touchdowns.
That's the Baylor offense in a nutshell. In Lagway's five starts, Baylor converted 33 of 90 third downs and scored touchdowns on 10 of 22 red-zone trips. Lagway is completing 52% of passes at 6.2 yards per attempt. UCF has scored touchdowns on 15 of 21 red-zone trips in Keyone Jenkins' FBS starts, and Jenkins has 11 touchdown passes against 3 interceptions. Baylor also drew 12 penalties for 116 yards at Kansas and blew an 11-point third-quarter lead there. Tonight's gusts to 24 mph hurt a high-volume, low-completion passing game more than a UCF offense that ran 40 times in each of its last two games.
The worry is UCF's secondary. Demari Henderson has started every game with a lineup on file, and is out after getting hurt in overtime against BYU. DJ Bell sits again. UCF already allows 7.6 yards per attempt to FBS teams, and Gavin Freeman, with 58 catches for 678 yards, will get chances. Baylor's defense is the best unit on the field: 23 sacks in six FBS games, with opponents converting 36% on third down. Jenkins was just cleared from concussion protocol, and if Jenkins goes down, the backup is Alonza Barnett III on a bad hamstring.
That's why this is a lean, not a hammer. I see this game as close to a coin flip, and +110 pays better than one. I'll back UCF to win it outright at home.
UCF Moneyline