Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Baylor Bears
O/U 49.5 · SPREAD Baylor Bears -17.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +20.5 -115
- Published odds
- -115
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 19-36
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 46 moves| Market | Opened Sep 13 3:46 PM | Close Sep 19 3:29 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Baylor Bears -18 (-110) | Baylor Bears -20 (-108) | +2 |
| TOTAL | 54.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-108) | −4 |
| MONEYLINE | Baylor Bears -1200 | Baylor Bears -1200 | Holds |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 13 3:46 PM | Baylor Bears -18 (-110) | 54.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -1200 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +825 |
| Sep 13 4:46 PM | Baylor Bears -18 (-110) | 54.5 (-112) | Baylor Bears -1200 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +825 |
| Sep 13 5:47 PM | Baylor Bears -18 (-110) | 54.5 (-118) | Baylor Bears -1100 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +775 |
| Sep 13 6:46 PM | Baylor Bears -18 (-108) | 54.5 (-118) | Baylor Bears -1100 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +775 |
| Sep 13 7:46 PM | Baylor Bears -17.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -1000 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +700 |
| Sep 13 8:46 PM | Baylor Bears -17.5 (-108) | 53.5 (-112) | Baylor Bears -900 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +650 |
| Sep 14 12:03 PM | Baylor Bears -17.5 (-108) | 53.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -900 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +650 |
| Sep 14 2:03 PM | Baylor Bears -18.5 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Baylor Bears -1000 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +700 |
| Sep 14 3:03 PM | Baylor Bears -18.5 (-110) | 53.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -1100 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +750 |
| Sep 15 7:30 AM | Baylor Bears -19 (-108) | 53.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -1100 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +775 |
| Sep 15 9:31 AM | Baylor Bears -19 (-110) | 53.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -1100 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +775 |
| Sep 15 12:01 PM | Baylor Bears -19 (-110) | 53.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -1100 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +750 |
| Sep 16 10:31 AM | Baylor Bears -19.5 (-112) | 53.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -1100 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +750 |
| Sep 16 11:31 AM | Baylor Bears -19 (-108) | 53.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -1100 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +775 |
| Sep 16 2:31 PM | Baylor Bears -19.5 (-108) | 53.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -1100 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +775 |
| Sep 16 5:18 PM | Baylor Bears -19.5 (-108) | 52.5 (-110) | Baylor Bears -1100 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +775 |
| Sep 17 6:00 AM | Baylor Bears -19 (-110) | 52.5 (-110) | Baylor Bears -1100 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +750 |
| Sep 17 9:00 AM | Baylor Bears -19 (-118) | 52.5 (-110) | Baylor Bears -1100 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +775 |
| Sep 17 10:31 AM | Baylor Bears -19.5 (-110) | 52.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -1100 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +775 |
| Sep 17 11:31 AM | Baylor Bears -19.5 (-110) | 52.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -1100 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +750 |
| Sep 17 12:32 PM | Baylor Bears -17.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -900 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +650 |
| Sep 17 1:32 PM | Baylor Bears -18 (-108) | 51.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -1000 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +700 |
| Sep 17 2:02 PM | Baylor Bears -18 (-108) | 51.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -1000 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +700 |
| Sep 17 2:32 PM | Baylor Bears -20 (-112) | 49.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -1100 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +775 |
| Sep 17 3:02 PM | Baylor Bears -19.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -1100 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +750 |
| Sep 17 4:02 PM | Baylor Bears -19.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -1100 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +775 |
| Sep 17 4:30 PM | Baylor Bears -20 (-108) | 49.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -1100 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +775 |
| Sep 17 6:41 PM | Baylor Bears -20 (-108) | 49.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -1100 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +775 |
| Sep 17 8:01 PM | Baylor Bears -20 (-108) | 49.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -1100 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +750 |
| Sep 17 9:01 PM | Baylor Bears -20 (-108) | 49.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -1100 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +775 |
| Sep 18 8:00 AM | Baylor Bears -20 (-108) | 49.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -1200 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +825 |
| Sep 18 11:31 AM | Baylor Bears -20 (-108) | 49.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -1200 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +825 |
| Sep 18 12:01 PM | Baylor Bears -20 (-108) | 49.5 (-110) | Baylor Bears -1200 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +825 |
| Sep 18 12:32 PM | Baylor Bears -20 (-108) | 49.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -1200 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +825 |
| Sep 18 1:02 PM | Baylor Bears -20 (-108) | 49.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -1200 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +825 |
| Sep 19 5:00 AM | Baylor Bears -20 (-108) | 48.5 (-115) | Baylor Bears -1200 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +825 |
| Sep 19 8:00 AM | Baylor Bears -20 (-108) | 49.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -1200 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +825 |
| Sep 19 8:30 AM | Baylor Bears -20 (-108) | 49.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -1200 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +850 |
| Sep 19 9:52 AM | Baylor Bears -20 (-108) | 49.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -1200 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +850 |
| Sep 19 10:02 AM | Baylor Bears -20 (-108) | 50.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -1200 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +825 |
| Sep 19 10:11 AM | Baylor Bears -20 (-108) | 50.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -1200 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +850 |
| Sep 19 10:22 AM | Baylor Bears -20 (-108) | 50.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -1200 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +825 |
| Sep 19 11:40 AM | Baylor Bears -20 (-108) | 50.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -1200 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +850 |
| Sep 19 11:50 AM | Baylor Bears -20 (-108) | 50.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -1200 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +850 |
| Sep 19 2:08 PM | Baylor Bears -20 (-108) | 50.5 (-110) | Baylor Bears -1200 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +850 |
| Sep 19 3:19 PM | Baylor Bears -20 (-108) | 50.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -1200 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +850 |
| CLOSESep 19 3:29 PM | Baylor Bears -20 (-108) | 50.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -1200 · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +850 |
The read
Baylor closes its nonconference schedule at McLane Stadium, while Louisiana Tech makes another road trip after visiting LSU. Nate Bennett makes his second consecutive start for the Bears; Trey Kukuk takes over for the injured Blake Baker.
I’m taking Louisiana Tech’s points because its defensive disruption matches up meaningfully with Baylor’s offensive problems. Tech has stopped 28.6% of opposing carries at or behind the line, and Alonzo Jackson Jr. has three sacks and five tackles for loss. Baylor’s reported rushing average is 3.7 yards, and Dave Aranda has emphasized sustaining drives while avoiding backward steps. My read is that Tech can create enough stalled possessions to make covering this spread difficult.
Bennett showed he could move the offense against Prairie View, throwing for 301 yards and two touchdowns, but he also threw two interceptions. Baylor committed nine penalties for 85 yards and three turnovers in that game. Tech does not need another four-takeaway half like it produced at LSU for those execution problems to matter.
The substantial risk is Louisiana Tech’s offense. Its 31.0% success rate meets a Baylor defense allowing 26.7%, and Kukuk’s limited passing work does not establish that he can consistently sustain drives. Tech’s second-half collapse at LSU shows how quickly defensive resistance can unravel without offensive support. Still, Jalen Mickens’ nine catches for 234 yards provide a demonstrated big-play outlet, while Kukuk’s rushing experience gives the offense another possible source of production.
I trust Tech’s ability to disrupt Baylor more than its ability to win outright. That makes the spread the ticket: enough defensive resistance and occasional offensive production to stay within the number, with modest confidence because sustained offense remains the central concern.
Injuries noted
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: Blake Baker (out) — Starting quarterback is out with a hand injury; Kukuk will start in his place.; Dane Benedix (questionable) — Week 3 injury report lists the wide receiver questionable without a disclosed condition.
Baylor Bears: DJ Lagway (out) — Ruled out for Louisiana Tech with an ankle injury.; Devonte Tezino (out for season) — Starting defensive tackle suffered a broken ankle against Prairie View A&M and will miss the remainder of the season.; Jacob Redding (out for season) — Safety tore his ACL before the Auburn game and remains out for the season.; Taz Williams Jr. (out) — Week 3 injury report lists the wide receiver out with a collarbone injury.; Cole Redding (out) — Week 3 injury report lists the safety out with a knee injury.; Jadon Porter (questionable) — Week 3 injury report lists the wide receiver questionable; Baylor's September 13 report said he missed the Prairie View A&M game.; Chase Collier (questionable) — Week 3 injury report lists the wide receiver questionable without a disclosed condition.; Ashton Jones (questionable) — Week 3 injury report lists the wide receiver questionable without a disclosed condition.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Trey Kukuk is LT's confirmed starter
6.16 Y/ATrey Kukuk is LT's confirmed starting quarterback. Baylor's official game-day report states that Louisiana Tech will start Kukuk after QB1 Blake Baker suffered a hand injury at LSU. 2025 prior-season line: 653 passing yards, 63.2% completions, 6.16 yards per attempt, 3-4 TD-INT over 10 games for LT.
Nate Bennett is BAY's confirmed starter
8.60 Y/ANate Bennett is BAY's confirmed starting quarterback. Baylor's game-day report confirms Bennett will make his second consecutive start while QB1 DJ Lagway remains sidelined with an ankle injury. 2026 line: 301 passing yards, 65.7% completions, 8.60 yards per attempt, 2-2 TD-INT over 1 games.
PACE & SCRIPT
LT is scoring +17 points per game
17 PPGLT is at 47 points per game over 2 games; BAY is at 30 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
BAY's defense gives up 15.5 fewer points per game
15.5 PPGLT is at 25.5 points allowed per game over 2 games; BAY is at 10 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
BAY holds the ball 6:24 longer per game
6:24 TOPLT is at 25:22 time of possession per game over 2 games; BAY is at 31:46 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
TURNOVERS
LT commits 1 fewer turnovers per game
1 TOLT is at 1.5 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; BAY is at 2.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
MISMATCH
BAY's passing attack against LT's — 320.5 pass yards a game to 219.5
320.5 VS 219.5The widest gap on this matchup's tape: pass ypg — LT 219.5, BAY 320.5, over 2 and 2 game samples.
REPLACEMENT
Devonte Tezino (DL) is out for the season for BAY
OUT FOR SEASONStarting defensive tackle suffered a broken ankle against Prairie View A&M and will miss the remainder of the season. Five Keys to Saturday's Game (2026-09-19) Three Takeaways: September 14 (2026-09-14) Injury bug plagues Baylor through first 2 weeks (2026-09-16)
Jacob Redding (S) is out for BAY
OUTSafety tore his ACL before the Auburn game and was described this week as one of two unavailable players originally slotted to start at safety. Injury bug plagues Baylor through first 2 weeks (2026-09-16)
Jadon Porter (WR) is out for BAY
OUTWide receiver is reported out; the school did not disclose the condition in its game-day report. Five Keys to Saturday's Game (2026-09-19)
DJ Lagway (QB) is out for BAY
OUTStarting quarterback is sidelined against Louisiana Tech with an ankle injury. Five Keys to Saturday's Game (2026-09-19)
Blake Baker (QB) is out for LT
OUTStarting quarterback suffered a hand injury in the loss at LSU and is sidelined against Baylor. Five Keys to Saturday's Game (2026-09-19) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Baylor Bears Game Overview, Stats, Injuries, Records (2026-09-19)
SITUATIONAL
BAY moves the chains 12 more times per game
12 FDLT is at 15.5 first downs per game over 2 games; BAY is at 27.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
BAY's staff goes for it 2.5 more times per game on fourth down
2.5 ATT/GLT is at 1.5 fourth-down attempts per game over 2 games; BAY is at 4 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
BAY's fourth-down conversion rate is 41.7 percentage points higher
41.7 PPLT is at 33.3% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; BAY is at 75% over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 19, 2026 at 7:42 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers, caesars.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
1- GARY'S PICKGAVIN FREEMANANYTIME TOUCHDOWN OVER 0.5
I’m taking Freeman at plus money because his early-season receiving volume gives him the best touchdown path on this menu. He has 22 catches for 258 yards and a score across two games, substantially more demonstrated involvement than Baylor’s other listed receivers.
Louisiana Tech can disrupt the backfield, which could push Baylor toward quick throws and designed touches for its most active pass catcher. Freeman does not need the Bears to play a clean offensive game; he needs one possession to end with the ball in his hands near or beyond the goal line.
The concern is that heavy volume has produced only one touchdown, so I am keeping the confidence modest. Still, +101 is preferable to laying -148 with Caden Knighten in an unsettled rushing attack, and Freeman’s workload makes him my choice among the available touchdown prices.
Every prop from this day is on the archive page.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.
Get Gary on the App StoreEvery NCAAF game this dayThe NCAAF recordToday's NCAAF picksEvery sport this day