TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears
O/U 49.5 · SPREAD Baylor Bears -5.5 · McLane Stadium, Waco, TX
The pick & result
- Published pick
- TCU Horned Frogs +5.5 -110
- Published odds
- -110
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 17-6
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 57 moves| Market | Opened Oct 11 3:03 PM | Close Oct 17 6:25 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Baylor Bears -6.5 (-110) | Baylor Bears -4 (-108) | −2½ |
| TOTAL | 49.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-110) | +1 |
| MONEYLINE | Baylor Bears -225 | Baylor Bears -185 | +40 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 11 3:03 PM | Baylor Bears -6.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -225 · TCU Horned Frogs +190 |
| Oct 11 4:03 PM | Baylor Bears -6.5 (-108) | 49.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -235 · TCU Horned Frogs +190 |
| Oct 11 9:03 PM | Baylor Bears -6 (-110) | 49.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -225 · TCU Horned Frogs +185 |
| Oct 11 10:03 PM | Baylor Bears -6 (-110) | 49.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -225 · TCU Horned Frogs +188 |
| Oct 11 11:03 PM | Baylor Bears -6 (-108) | 48.5 (-110) | Baylor Bears -220 · TCU Horned Frogs +180 |
| Oct 12 12:04 AM | Baylor Bears -5.5 (-108) | 48.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -210 · TCU Horned Frogs +170 |
| Oct 12 6:00 AM | Baylor Bears -5.5 (-108) | 48.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -210 · TCU Horned Frogs +170 |
| Oct 12 8:01 AM | Baylor Bears -5.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -210 · TCU Horned Frogs +170 |
| Oct 12 9:00 AM | Baylor Bears -6 (-108) | 48.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -210 · TCU Horned Frogs +170 |
| Oct 12 10:01 AM | Baylor Bears -5.5 (-112) | 48.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -210 · TCU Horned Frogs +170 |
| Oct 12 11:32 AM | Baylor Bears -5.5 (-110) | 47.5 (-115) | Baylor Bears -200 · TCU Horned Frogs +165 |
| Oct 12 1:33 PM | Baylor Bears -5.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-102) | Baylor Bears -210 · TCU Horned Frogs +170 |
| Oct 12 2:33 PM | Baylor Bears -5.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -210 · TCU Horned Frogs +170 |
| Oct 13 12:06 AM | Baylor Bears -6 (-105) | 48.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -210 · TCU Horned Frogs +175 |
| Oct 13 6:00 AM | Baylor Bears -5.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -210 · TCU Horned Frogs +175 |
| Oct 13 8:30 AM | Baylor Bears -6 (-108) | 48.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -210 · TCU Horned Frogs +175 |
| Oct 13 9:00 AM | Baylor Bears -6 (-108) | 48.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -210 · TCU Horned Frogs +175 |
| Oct 13 10:31 AM | Baylor Bears -6 (-110) | 48.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -220 · TCU Horned Frogs +180 |
| Oct 14 11:02 AM | Baylor Bears -6.5 (-108) | 48.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -235 · TCU Horned Frogs +190 |
| Oct 14 11:32 AM | Baylor Bears -6.5 (-108) | 48.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -225 · TCU Horned Frogs +185 |
| Oct 14 12:03 PM | Baylor Bears -6.5 (-108) | 48.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -225 · TCU Horned Frogs +188 |
| Oct 14 12:34 PM | Baylor Bears -6 (-110) | 48.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -220 · TCU Horned Frogs +180 |
| Oct 14 1:04 PM | Baylor Bears -6 (-110) | 48.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -225 · TCU Horned Frogs +185 |
| Oct 14 3:35 PM | Baylor Bears -6 (-110) | 48.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -220 · TCU Horned Frogs +185 |
| Oct 14 5:06 PM | Baylor Bears -6 (-110) | 48.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -220 · TCU Horned Frogs +180 |
| Oct 15 7:31 AM | Baylor Bears -6 (-110) | 48.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -225 · TCU Horned Frogs +185 |
| Oct 15 9:31 AM | Baylor Bears -6 (-110) | 48.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -235 · TCU Horned Frogs +190 |
| Oct 15 12:01 PM | Baylor Bears -6.5 (-105) | 48.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -235 · TCU Horned Frogs +190 |
| Oct 15 12:31 PM | Baylor Bears -6.5 (-108) | 48.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -225 · TCU Horned Frogs +188 |
| Oct 15 5:00 PM | Baylor Bears -6.5 (-108) | 48.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -235 · TCU Horned Frogs +190 |
| Oct 15 6:39 PM | Baylor Bears -6 (-108) | 48.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -225 · TCU Horned Frogs +185 |
| Oct 16 12:54 AM | Baylor Bears -6 (-112) | 48.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -225 · TCU Horned Frogs +185 |
| Oct 16 9:00 AM | Baylor Bears -6 (-108) | 48.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -225 · TCU Horned Frogs +185 |
| Oct 16 10:01 AM | Baylor Bears -6 (-108) | 48.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -225 · TCU Horned Frogs +185 |
| Oct 16 3:32 PM | Baylor Bears -5.5 (-108) | 48.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -220 · TCU Horned Frogs +180 |
| Oct 16 7:01 PM | Baylor Bears -5.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-112) | Baylor Bears -220 · TCU Horned Frogs +180 |
| Oct 17 5:00 AM | Baylor Bears -5.5 (-108) | — | Baylor Bears -220 · TCU Horned Frogs +180 |
| Oct 17 8:30 AM | Baylor Bears -5.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-110) | Baylor Bears -210 · TCU Horned Frogs +175 |
| Oct 17 9:21 AM | Baylor Bears -5.5 (-108) | 48.5 (-120) | Baylor Bears -220 · TCU Horned Frogs +180 |
| Oct 17 9:31 AM | Baylor Bears -5.5 (-108) | 49.5 (-110) | Baylor Bears -220 · TCU Horned Frogs +180 |
| Oct 17 10:21 AM | Baylor Bears -5.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -210 · TCU Horned Frogs +175 |
| Oct 17 10:51 AM | Baylor Bears -5.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -210 · TCU Horned Frogs +175 |
| Oct 17 11:01 AM | Baylor Bears -5.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -220 · TCU Horned Frogs +180 |
| Oct 17 11:32 AM | Baylor Bears -5.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -210 · TCU Horned Frogs +175 |
| Oct 17 12:53 PM | Baylor Bears -5 (-112) | 50.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -210 · TCU Horned Frogs +170 |
| Oct 17 1:03 PM | Baylor Bears -5 (-110) | 50.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -210 · TCU Horned Frogs +175 |
| Oct 17 1:43 PM | Baylor Bears -4.5 (-110) | 50.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -200 · TCU Horned Frogs +165 |
| Oct 17 1:53 PM | Baylor Bears -4.5 (-110) | 50.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -200 · TCU Horned Frogs +165 |
| Oct 17 2:33 PM | Baylor Bears -4.5 (-110) | 50.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -200 · TCU Horned Frogs +165 |
| Oct 17 3:53 PM | Baylor Bears -4.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -200 · TCU Horned Frogs +165 |
| Oct 17 4:13 PM | Baylor Bears -4 (-110) | 49.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -190 · TCU Horned Frogs +155 |
| Oct 17 4:23 PM | Baylor Bears -4 (-112) | 49.5 (-110) | Baylor Bears -190 · TCU Horned Frogs +155 |
| Oct 17 4:33 PM | Baylor Bears -4 (-110) | 49.5 (-118) | Baylor Bears -190 · TCU Horned Frogs +155 |
| Oct 17 4:43 PM | Baylor Bears -4 (-110) | 50.5 (-110) | Baylor Bears -190 · TCU Horned Frogs +155 |
| Oct 17 5:34 PM | Baylor Bears -4 (-110) | 50.5 (-112) | Baylor Bears -190 · TCU Horned Frogs +160 |
| Oct 17 5:44 PM | Baylor Bears -4 (-110) | 50.5 (-110) | Baylor Bears -190 · TCU Horned Frogs +155 |
| Oct 17 6:14 PM | Baylor Bears -4 (-108) | 50.5 (-112) | Baylor Bears -190 · TCU Horned Frogs +155 |
| CLOSEOct 17 6:25 PM | Baylor Bears -4 (-108) | 50.5 (-110) | Baylor Bears -185 · TCU Horned Frogs +150 |
The read
Saturday night in Waco, TCU makes the 80-mile trip from Fort Worth to McLane Stadium, and both teams are fresh off a bye. Baylor is 4-1 and coming off a 55-19 beatdown of Arizona State. TCU is 2-3 and has dropped two straight. That contrast is exactly why I want the points.
That Arizona State score was louder than the football. Baylor ran at a 40% success rate that night and leaned on three takeaways against a defense that ranks 106th in points allowed. TCU's last loss was a 10-17 fight with AP No. 8 BYU, and the Frogs held the Cougars to 62 passing yards. The market is paying for Baylor's highlight reel and charging TCU for a losing streak.
Better still, TCU's defense takes away what Baylor does best. The Bears' offense lives on big plays more than steady gains. TCU's defense limits big plays better than Baylor's does, and it has gotten off the field on third down all season. When Baylor has had to grind, it has scored 16 against Auburn and 23 against Colorado. That's not a team that pulls away.
Expect a tight, low-scoring game. Baylor allows 11.7 points per game at home, and TCU's games against real opponents have stayed low. In that kind of game, 5.5 points is a real cushion. Jaden Craig has been efficient through the air, at 7.5 and 7.8 yards per attempt the last two weeks. Kari Ashley gives Baylor's secondary a problem in Gordon Sammis' tight-end-heavy offense.
Don't let TCU's long injury list scare you. Most of the players ruled out haven't recorded a stat this season, and the defense held up against BYU without linebacker Michael Short.
The risk is real. Baylor's front has 18 sacks and 42 tackles for loss, TCU can't run the ball and is down two offensive linemen, and two of TCU's three losses came by more than this number. If Baylor turns that pressure into turnovers, this one gets away. At this price, though, I'll take the Frogs and the points.
Injuries noted
TCU Horned Frogs: Michael Short (out) — Linebacker; listed out for Baylor in reporting of the October 14 conference availability report. Condition unspecified.; Devondre McGee (out) — Cornerback; listed out for Baylor. Condition unspecified.; Keagan Cunningham (out) — Wide receiver; listed out for Baylor. Condition unspecified.; Devan Robison (out) — Offensive lineman; listed out for Baylor. Name spelled Robison in the retrieved report; condition unspecified.; Creece Brister (out) — Offensive lineman; listed out for Baylor. Condition unspecified.; Cooper Reid (out) — Wide receiver; listed out for Baylor. Condition unspecified.; Floyd Guidry (out) — Defensive tackle; listed out for Baylor. Condition unspecified.; Michael Teason Jr. (questionable) — Linebacker; listed questionable for Baylor. Condition unspecified.; Kyle Lemmermann (questionable) — Kicker; listed questionable for Baylor. Condition unspecified.; Jeremy Scott (probable) — Wide receiver; listed probable for Baylor. Condition unspecified.; Kari Ashley (probable) — Tight end; listed probable for Baylor. Condition unspecified.; Fletcher Fierro (out) — Wide receiver; Covers' injury entry dated October 15 reports an undisclosed injury and explicitly rules him out against Baylor.
Baylor Bears: Jacob Redding (out) — Safety; listed out for TCU in reporting of the October 14 conference availability report. Condition unspecified.; Jamarion Richardson (out) — Cornerback; listed out for TCU. Condition unspecified.; Devonte Tezino (out) — Defensive lineman; listed out for TCU. Condition unspecified.; Cayden Tone (out) — Offensive lineman; listed out for TCU. Condition unspecified.; Ashton Jones (out) — Wide receiver; listed out for TCU. Condition unspecified.; Garrick Ponder (questionable) — Jack linebacker; listed questionable for TCU. Condition unspecified.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
DJ Lagway is BAY's projected starter
6.47 Y/ADJ Lagway is BAY's projected starting quarterback. The October 12 TCU-week report discusses Lagway continuing at quarterback and quotes Dave Aranda describing improved movement after his ankle injury. An explicit October 17 starting announcement was not retrieved. 2026 line: 860 passing yards, 53.4% completions, 6.47 yards per attempt, 8-2 TD-INT over 3 games.
Jaden Craig is TCU's confirmed starter
8.89 Y/AJaden Craig is TCU's confirmed starting quarterback. TCU's October 15 official Baylor preview explicitly identifies Harvard transfer Craig as its starting quarterback directing the offense. 2026 line: 1396 passing yards, 68.8% completions, 8.89 yards per attempt, 8-4 TD-INT over 5 games.
PACE & SCRIPT
BAY: 34.8 points per game to TCU's 25.4
9.4 PPGBaylor is up from 31.1 last season, and TCU has dropped from 30.7 to 25.4 through five games. Those moves in opposite directions are where the gap comes from. Five games can swing on one or two blowouts, so the size of the gap could narrow. At home, Baylor has been the offense that sets the pace, and TCU needs to keep this from turning into a shootout.
COVERAGE
TCU: 155.4 passing yards allowed per game to BAY's 229.2
73.8 YPGTCU is at 155.4 passing yards allowed per game over 5 games; BAY is at 229.2 over 5 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 16.
REPLACEMENT
Michael Short (LB) is out for TCU
OUTLinebacker; listed out for Baylor in reporting of the October 14 conference availability report. Condition unspecified. Key TCU football offensive playmaker listed on latest player availability report — Steven Johnson, AOL (2026-10-15)
Devondre McGee (CB) is out for TCU
OUTCornerback; listed out for Baylor. Condition unspecified. Key TCU football offensive playmaker listed on latest player availability report — Steven Johnson, AOL (2026-10-15)
Keagan Cunningham (WR) is out for TCU
OUTWide receiver; listed out for Baylor. Condition unspecified. Key TCU football offensive playmaker listed on latest player availability report — Steven Johnson, AOL (2026-10-15)
Devan Robison (OL) is out for TCU
OUTOffensive lineman; listed out for Baylor. Name spelled Robison in the retrieved report; condition unspecified. Key TCU football offensive playmaker listed on latest player availability report — Steven Johnson, AOL (2026-10-15)
Creece Brister (OL) is out for TCU
OUTOffensive lineman; listed out for Baylor. Condition unspecified. Key TCU football offensive playmaker listed on latest player availability report — Steven Johnson, AOL (2026-10-15)
Cooper Reid (WR) is out for TCU
OUTWide receiver; listed out for Baylor. Condition unspecified. Key TCU football offensive playmaker listed on latest player availability report — Steven Johnson, AOL (2026-10-15)
Floyd Guidry (DT) is out for TCU
OUTDefensive tackle; listed out for Baylor. Condition unspecified. Key TCU football offensive playmaker listed on latest player availability report — Steven Johnson, AOL (2026-10-15)
Fletcher Fierro (WR) is out for TCU
OUTWide receiver; Covers' injury entry dated October 15 reports an undisclosed injury and explicitly rules him out against Baylor. TCU vs Baylor Injury report — Covers; Fletcher Fierro entry dated October 15, 2026 (2026-10-15)
Jacob Redding (S) is out for BAY
OUTSafety; listed out for TCU in reporting of the October 14 conference availability report. Condition unspecified. Key TCU football offensive playmaker listed on latest player availability report — Steven Johnson, AOL (2026-10-15)
Jamarion Richardson (CB) is out for BAY
OUTCornerback; listed out for TCU. Condition unspecified. Key TCU football offensive playmaker listed on latest player availability report — Steven Johnson, AOL (2026-10-15)
Devonte Tezino (DL) is out for BAY
OUTDefensive lineman; listed out for TCU. Condition unspecified. Key TCU football offensive playmaker listed on latest player availability report — Steven Johnson, AOL (2026-10-15)
Cayden Tone (OL) is out for BAY
OUTOffensive lineman; listed out for TCU. Condition unspecified. Key TCU football offensive playmaker listed on latest player availability report — Steven Johnson, AOL (2026-10-15)
Ashton Jones (WR) is out for BAY
OUTWide receiver; listed out for TCU. Condition unspecified. Key TCU football offensive playmaker listed on latest player availability report — Steven Johnson, AOL (2026-10-15)
TEAM RECORD
Big 12 game: TCU 0-2, BAY 2-0 in conference
CONFERENCEThese two share the Big 12. TCU is 0-2 against it, BAY is 2-0. 2026 standings through 2026-10-17.
AFTER GARY
TCU +5.5 → +3.5
GARY +2Gary's number was 5.5; the same book now shows 3.5.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 17, 2026 at 8:07 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, betrivers, draftkings, betmgm, caesars.
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- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
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