Baylor Bears at UCF Knights

Injuries noted

Baylor Bears: Devon Jordan (probable) — CB #7 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Jacob Redding (out) — S #8 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Dawson Pendergrass (probable) — RB #35 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Jamarion Richardson (out) — CB #38 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Devonte Tezino (out) — DL #59 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Cayden Tone (out) — OL #61 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Ashton Jones (out) — WR #87 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report

UCF Knights: Taevion Swint (out) — RB #4 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; DJ Bell (out) — DB #5 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Duane Thomas Jr. (probable) — WR #7 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Demari Henderson (out) — DB #8 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Sincere Edwards (probable) — EDG #10 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Ken Talley (probable) — EDG #11 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Caleb Rollerson (questionable) — WR #13 listed Questionable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Alonza Barnett III (questionable) — QB #14 listed Questionable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Lewis Carter (out) — LB #20 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Jayden Jennings (probable) — LB #38 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Bruno Dall (probable) — EDG #41 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Jacob Maiava (probable) — OL #55 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Tyler Gibson (out) — OL #75 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Preston Cushman (probable) — OL #78 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report

QUARTERBACK

• DJ Lagway is BAY's projected starter

  6.28 Y/A

  DJ Lagway is BAY's projected starting quarterback. October 28 Baylor-focused reporting discusses Lagway as the quarterback preparing for UCF and quotes Klanderman discussing his participation in practice. An explicit team announcement naming him this game's starter was not retrieved. The checked current-week report does not identify a new injury against Kansas or a practice restriction; that does not establish unrestricted health. 2026 line: 1356 passing yards, 52.3% completions, 6.28 yards per attempt, 9-4 TD-INT over 5 games.

• Keyone Jenkins is UCF's confirmed starter

  6.89 Y/A

  Keyone Jenkins is UCF's confirmed starting quarterback. Frost confirmed Jenkins will start against Baylor. Jenkins entered the medical tent with a suspected concussion after his final touchdown pass against BYU on October 24; October 28 reporting says trainers cleared him from concussion protocol. No current-week practice limitation was established in the retrieved reports. 2026 line: 1040 passing yards, 68.9% completions, 6.89 yards per attempt, 9-3 TD-INT over 6 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

• BAY: 16.1 points allowed per game to UCF's 23

  6.9 PPG

  Baylor's defense has been far stingier than UCF's this season, and the jump from 32.6 allowed last season is enormous. A swing that big over seven games points to real improvement, though the opponents faced aren't on the sheet, so some of it could be schedule. UCF at 23 is right in line with its 23.6 from last season, which makes its number the steadier of the two. For this matchup, the question is whether Baylor's new defensive form travels against a UCF offense at home.

TURNOVERS

• UCF: 1 turnover committed per game to BAY's 1.57

  0.57 TO

  BAY is at 1.57 turnovers committed per game over 7 games; UCF is at 1 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 29. Last season BAY was at 2 over 12 games and UCF at 1.5 over 12 games.

MISMATCH

• BAY: 275.9 pass yards a game to UCF's 198.6

  275.9 VS 198.6

  The widest gap between these two is pass yards a game: BAY threw for 275.9 passing yards a game over 7 games; UCF threw for 198.6 passing yards a game over 7 games this season. Last season BAY was at 309.6 over 12 games and UCF at 220.8 over 12 games.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

• BAY lead the series with UCF since 2025

  1-0 SERIES

  The series is one game deep: Baylor beat UCF 30-3 at home on Nov 1 last season, and it was one-way from start to finish. That kind of margin says Baylor controlled both sides of the ball that day, but a single meeting is a thin base for judging this one. This time the game moves to UCF, so the home edge Baylor had last year flips. Use last year's blowout as a starting point and weigh this season's form more heavily than one result.

REPLACEMENT

• Demari Henderson (DB) is out for UCF

  OUT

  DB #8 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-29 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-29)

• Lewis Carter (LB) is out for UCF

  OUT

  LB #20 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-29 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-29)

• Tyler Gibson (OL) is out for UCF

  OUT

  OL #75 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-29 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-29)

• Jacob Redding (S) is out for BAY

  OUT

  S #8 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-29 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-29)

• Jamarion Richardson (CB) is out for BAY

  OUT

  CB #38 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-29 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-29)

• Devonte Tezino (DL) is out for BAY

  OUT

  DL #59 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-29 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-29)

• Cayden Tone (OL) is out for BAY

  OUT

  OL #61 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-29 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-29)

• Ashton Jones (WR) is out for BAY

  OUT

  WR #87 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-29 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-29)

• Taevion Swint (RB) is out for UCF

  OUT

  RB #4 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-29 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-29)

• DJ Bell (DB) is out for UCF

  OUT

  DB #5 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-29 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-29)

• Caleb Rollerson (WR) is questionable for UCF

  QUESTIONABLE

  WR #13 listed Questionable on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-29 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-29)

• Alonza Barnett III (QB) is questionable for UCF

  QUESTIONABLE

  QB #14 listed Questionable on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-29 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-29)

• Dawson Pendergrass (RB) is probable for BAY

  PROBABLE

  RB #35 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-29 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-29)

• Sincere Edwards (EDGE) is probable for UCF

  PROBABLE

  EDG #10 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-29 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-29)

• Ken Talley (EDGE) is probable for UCF

  PROBABLE

  EDG #11 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-29 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-29)

• Jayden Jennings (LB) is probable for UCF

  PROBABLE

  LB #38 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-29 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-29)

• Bruno Dall (EDGE) is probable for UCF

  PROBABLE

  EDG #41 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-29 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-29)

• Jacob Maiava (OL) is probable for UCF

  PROBABLE

  OL #55 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-29 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-29)

• Preston Cushman (OL) is probable for UCF

  PROBABLE

  OL #78 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-29 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-29)

• Devon Jordan (CB) is probable for BAY

  PROBABLE

  CB #7 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-29 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-29)

• Duane Thomas Jr. (WR) is probable for UCF

  PROBABLE

  WR #7 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-29 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-29)

SITUATIONAL

• BAY: 275.9 team passing yards per game to UCF's 198.6

  77.3 YPG

  Baylor throws it a lot more than UCF, and that gap tells you whose style should set the tempo when Baylor visits. Baylor's number is down from 309.6 last season, so this air attack is a bit less dominant than a year ago, while UCF sits below its own 220.8 from last season. Seven games is a decent sample, so the gap should mostly hold. If you're looking at this game, think about whether UCF's defense can force Baylor into a ground game it uses less.

• UCF: 47 penalty yards per game to BAY's 73.9

  26.9 YDS

  Baylor gives away a lot more yards on flags than UCF, roughly a few extra first downs' worth of free yardage every game. That's up sharply from 61 last season, while UCF has cleaned up from 57.2. Penalty rates swing more than most stats, so Baylor's number could drift back toward last year. On the road in a hostile building, a sloppy Baylor team can hand UCF short fields, which matters most in spots where a field goal or two decides the outcome.

• BAY: 23.4 first downs per game to UCF's 18.6

  4.9 FD

  BAY is at 23.4 first downs per game over 7 games; UCF is at 18.6 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 29. Last season BAY was at 24.8 over 12 games and UCF at 18.2 over 12 games.

• BAY: 2.86 fourth-down attempts per game to UCF's 1.71

  1.14 ATT/G

  BAY is at 2.86 fourth-down attempts per game over 7 games; UCF is at 1.71 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 29. Last season BAY was at 4.08 over 12 games and UCF at 3 over 12 games.

• BAY: 65% fourth-down conversion rate to UCF's 41.7%

  23.3 PP

  BAY is at 65% fourth-down conversion rate over 7 games; UCF is at 41.7% over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 29. Last season BAY was at 53.1% over 12 games and UCF at 55.6% over 12 games.

TEAM RECORD

• Big 12 game: BAY 2-2, UCF 2-2 in conference

  CONFERENCE

  These two share the Big 12. BAY is 2-2 against it, UCF is 2-2. 2026 standings through 2026-10-30.

AFTER GARY

• UCF +110 → +112

  NOW +0.45PP

  Gary's number was 110; the same book now shows 112.