Colorado Buffaloes at Baylor Bears
O/U 54.5 · SPREAD Baylor Bears -8.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Baylor Bears -9.5 -112
- Published odds
- -112
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 13-23
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 36 moves| Market | Opened Sep 20 3:42 PM | Close Sep 26 11:55 AM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Baylor Bears -9.5 (-112) | Baylor Bears -8.5 (-105) | −1 |
| TOTAL | 54.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-108) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Baylor Bears -350 | Baylor Bears -350 | Holds |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 20 3:42 PM | Baylor Bears -9.5 (-112) | 54.5 (-110) | Baylor Bears -350 · Colorado Buffaloes +280 |
| Sep 20 5:43 PM | Baylor Bears -9.5 (-112) | 54.5 (-112) | Baylor Bears -350 · Colorado Buffaloes +280 |
| Sep 20 7:44 PM | Baylor Bears -9.5 (-112) | 54.5 (-112) | Baylor Bears -350 · Colorado Buffaloes +275 |
| Sep 20 8:44 PM | Baylor Bears -10 (-105) | 54.5 (-115) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +300 |
| Sep 21 12:44 AM | Baylor Bears -9.5 (-115) | 54.5 (-115) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +300 |
| Sep 21 6:00 AM | Baylor Bears -10 (-110) | 54.5 (-115) | Baylor Bears -400 · Colorado Buffaloes +320 |
| Sep 21 9:00 AM | Baylor Bears -10 (-108) | 54.5 (-110) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +300 |
| Sep 21 10:01 AM | Baylor Bears -10 (-108) | 54.5 (-110) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +300 |
| Sep 21 11:01 AM | Baylor Bears -10 (-105) | 54.5 (-115) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +300 |
| Sep 21 12:01 PM | Baylor Bears -10 (-105) | 54.5 (-110) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +290 |
| Sep 21 1:02 PM | Baylor Bears -10 (-105) | 54.5 (-115) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +300 |
| Sep 21 2:02 PM | Baylor Bears -10 (-105) | 55.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +300 |
| Sep 21 4:03 PM | Baylor Bears -10 (-105) | 55.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +300 |
| Sep 21 5:03 PM | Baylor Bears -10 (-105) | 55.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +300 |
| Sep 22 8:30 AM | Baylor Bears -10 (-105) | 55.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +310 |
| Sep 22 11:32 AM | Baylor Bears -10 (-105) | 55.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +300 |
| Sep 22 5:26 PM | Baylor Bears -10 (-108) | 55.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +300 |
| Sep 23 4:06 PM | Baylor Bears -10 (-108) | 55.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +310 |
| Sep 23 6:06 PM | Baylor Bears -10 (-108) | 55.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +300 |
| Sep 24 12:52 PM | Baylor Bears -9.5 (-112) | 55.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +300 |
| Sep 24 1:22 PM | Baylor Bears -9.5 (-112) | 55.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +290 |
| Sep 24 2:54 PM | Baylor Bears -9.5 (-112) | 55.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +290 |
| Sep 24 7:25 PM | Baylor Bears -9.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +300 |
| Sep 24 7:55 PM | Baylor Bears -9.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +290 |
| Sep 24 9:25 PM | Baylor Bears -9.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +300 |
| Sep 25 11:01 AM | Baylor Bears -9.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +300 |
| Sep 25 1:31 PM | Baylor Bears -9.5 (-112) | 55.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +300 |
| Sep 25 2:01 PM | Baylor Bears -9.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +290 |
| Sep 25 5:33 PM | Baylor Bears -9.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +300 |
| Sep 25 7:54 PM | Baylor Bears -9.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +290 |
| Sep 26 5:00 AM | Baylor Bears -9.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +290 |
| Sep 26 9:11 AM | Baylor Bears -9.5 (-108) | 55.5 (-105) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +290 |
| Sep 26 9:43 AM | Baylor Bears -9.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-112) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +290 |
| Sep 26 10:54 AM | Baylor Bears -9 (-110) | 54.5 (-115) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +300 |
| Sep 26 11:14 AM | Baylor Bears -8.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -375 · Colorado Buffaloes +290 |
| Sep 26 11:24 AM | Baylor Bears -8.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -350 · Colorado Buffaloes +290 |
| CLOSESep 26 11:55 AM | Baylor Bears -8.5 (-105) | 54.5 (-108) | Baylor Bears -350 · Colorado Buffaloes +280 |
The read
Big 12 play opens at midday in Waco with two 2-1 teams and two coaches who both need this one. Dave Aranda carried a hot seat through all of the preseason. Deion Sanders is a week removed from a 41-7 beating at Northwestern and a roster purge.
I keep coming back to one question: where do Colorado's points come from? Julian Lewis was sharp against Weber State and quiet against the two FBS opponents, with 124 yards at Georgia Tech and 168 yards with two interceptions at Northwestern. The Buffaloes score 2.111 points per scoring opportunity, 134th of 138 teams. They walk into a Baylor defense that allows 1.789 per opportunity, 8th in the country, and ranks 12th in success rate allowed at 30.8%. Some of that shine came against Prairie View A&M. This same unit also held Auburn to 17 and has picked off five passes.
Colorado's passing game gets thinner this week. Danny Scudero remains out, and tight end Charlie Williams, who caught the go-ahead touchdown at Georgia Tech, is doubtful. Joseph Williams and DeAndre Moore Jr. carry the load behind a line missing Demetrius Hunter. Three players are gone from the team for conduct. The punter is doubtful on a unit that already trails Baylor in special teams efficiency, 67.284 to 37.423. Field position becomes one more thing Colorado has to fight uphill.
Baylor is moving the other direction. DJ Lagway returns with the green light, and Jadon Porter and Devin Turner come back after missing two games. Lagway threw 54 times for 333 yards against Auburn on an ankle hurt on the opening drive, so the volume is there. If rust shows, Nate Bennett has already won two starts. Colorado's defense has been middling by the per-play measures: 39.2% success rate allowed (73rd) and 0.036 PPA allowed (70th). The secondary went from 11 pass breakups against Weber State to zero at Northwestern. Now it plays without corner Preston Ashley and linebacker Colby Johnson against an offense throwing for 306.3 yards a game.
The risk is real. Baylor sits 110th on standard downs, its run game has been ordinary, and Colorado's front stuffs a third of runs. I expect Baylor to lean on the arm anyway, which is where Colorado is thinnest. The opponent-adjusted numbers agree on the gap: SP+ has Baylor at 6.8 against Colorado's -1.2, and FPI has 8.095 against -0.678. Those are neutral-field ratings, and this one is in Waco. I trust the side that finishes drives and gets players back over the side that keeps losing pieces and still hasn't solved scoring territory.
Injuries noted
Colorado Buffaloes: Danny Scudero (out) — WR listed out on Sept. 24, 2026 Colorado-Baylor availability report; Preston Ashley (out) — CB listed out on Sept. 24, 2026 Colorado-Baylor availability report; Colby Johnson (out) — LB listed out on Sept. 24, 2026 Colorado-Baylor availability report; Demetrius Hunter (out) — OL listed out on Sept. 24, 2026 Colorado-Baylor availability report; Damian Henderson II (doubtful) — RB listed doubtful on Sept. 24, 2026 availability report; Daniel Gerlach (doubtful) — P listed doubtful on Sept. 24, 2026 availability report; Vili Taufatofua (doubtful) — DL listed doubtful on Sept. 24, 2026 availability report; Charlie Williams (doubtful) — TE listed doubtful on Sept. 24, 2026 availability report; JaQuail Smith (questionable) — RB listed questionable on Sept. 24, 2026 availability report; Bo LaPenna (questionable) — LB listed questionable on Sept. 24, 2026 availability report; Cree Thomas (probable) — DB listed probable on Sept. 24, 2026 availability report; Chauncey Gooden (probable) — OL listed probable on Sept. 24, 2026 availability report; Leon Bell (probable) — OL listed probable on Sept. 24, 2026 availability report; Zach Atkins (probable) — TE listed probable on Sept. 24, 2026 availability report; Fisher Clements (probable) — TE listed probable on Sept. 24, 2026 availability report
Baylor Bears: Jacob Redding (out) — S listed out on Sept. 24, 2026 availability report; Jamarion Richardson (out) — CB listed out on Sept. 24, 2026 availability report; Devonte Tezino (out) — DL listed out on Sept. 24, 2026 availability report; Ashton Jones (out) — WR listed out on Sept. 24, 2026 availability report; Cayden Tone (doubtful) — OL listed doubtful on Sept. 24, 2026 availability report; Hosea Wheeler (questionable) — DL listed questionable on Sept. 24, 2026 availability report; article notes his status 'creates defensive concerns' following Tezino's season-ending injury; DJ Lagway (probable) — QB probable after missing two games with an ankle injury suffered in the season-opening loss at Auburn; Jadon Porter (probable) — WR listed probable on Sept. 24, 2026 availability report; Devin Turner (probable) — S listed probable on Sept. 24, 2026 availability report
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Julian Lewis is COLO's confirmed starter
8.33 Y/AJulian Lewis is COLO's confirmed starting quarterback. Julian Lewis is Colorado's starting quarterback; per the Sept. 24, 2026 Yahoo Sports report he enters the Baylor game with 658 passing yards and six touchdowns through three games, after throwing two interceptions in the loss to Northwestern. DNVR's Sept. 19, 2026 depth chart report also confirmed Lewis as starter with Kaneal Sweetwyne and Isaac Wilson as backups. 2026 line: 658 passing yards, 63.3% completions, 8.33 yards per attempt, 6-2 TD-INT over 3 games.
DJ Lagway is BAY's confirmed starter
6.17 Y/ADJ Lagway is BAY's confirmed starting quarterback. DJ Lagway is listed 'probable' on Baylor's official Sept. 24, 2026 availability report and described as 'all but certain' to play; head coach Dave Aranda said 'He's got the green light for this week' per the National Football Post/The Ticket report of Sept. 24, 2026, after Lagway missed two games with an ankle injury and Nate Bennett started in his place. 2026 line: 333 passing yards, 50.0% completions, 6.17 yards per attempt, 2-1 TD-INT over 1 games.
PACE & SCRIPT
BAY: 13 points allowed per game to COLO's 25
12 PPGBaylor is allowing 13 points a game through three games, a huge improvement from 32.6 last season. Colorado is at 25, better than its 30.5 a year ago. Baylor's drop is too large to trust fully over three games and will likely rise against better offenses. At home, the matchup shows whether Baylor's defense has actually changed or just faced weak schedules early.
MISMATCH
BAY: 13 points allowed a game to COLO's 25
13 VS 25Baylor has allowed 13 points a game through 3 games after giving up 32.6 last season. Colorado allows 25, better than 30.5 last year. Both defenses improved, but Baylor's swing is too large to trust off 3 games and is likely to move toward the middle. Colorado may score more than Baylor's early numbers suggest, since last season's figure says this defense can bend.
REPLACEMENT
Ashton Jones (WR) is out for BAY
OUTWR listed out on Sept. 24, 2026 availability report Colorado-Baylor Availability Report: DJ Lagway Officially 'Probable,' Hosea Wheeler 'Questionable' to Play (2026-09-24)
Devonte Tezino (DL) is out for BAY
OUTDL listed out on Sept. 24, 2026 availability report Colorado-Baylor Availability Report: DJ Lagway Officially 'Probable,' Hosea Wheeler 'Questionable' to Play (2026-09-24)
Jamarion Richardson (CB) is out for BAY
OUTCB listed out on Sept. 24, 2026 availability report Colorado-Baylor Availability Report: DJ Lagway Officially 'Probable,' Hosea Wheeler 'Questionable' to Play (2026-09-24)
Jacob Redding (S) is out for BAY
OUTS listed out on Sept. 24, 2026 availability report Colorado-Baylor Availability Report: DJ Lagway Officially 'Probable,' Hosea Wheeler 'Questionable' to Play (2026-09-24)
Demetrius Hunter (OL) is out for COLO
OUTOL listed out on Sept. 24, 2026 Colorado-Baylor availability report Colorado-Baylor Availability Report: DJ Lagway Officially 'Probable,' Hosea Wheeler 'Questionable' to Play (2026-09-24)
Colby Johnson (LB) is out for COLO
OUTLB listed out on Sept. 24, 2026 Colorado-Baylor availability report Colorado-Baylor Availability Report: DJ Lagway Officially 'Probable,' Hosea Wheeler 'Questionable' to Play (2026-09-24)
Preston Ashley (CB) is out for COLO
OUTCB listed out on Sept. 24, 2026 Colorado-Baylor availability report Colorado-Baylor Availability Report: DJ Lagway Officially 'Probable,' Hosea Wheeler 'Questionable' to Play (2026-09-24)
Danny Scudero (WR) is out for COLO
OUTWR listed out on Sept. 24, 2026 Colorado-Baylor availability report Colorado-Baylor Availability Report: DJ Lagway Officially 'Probable,' Hosea Wheeler 'Questionable' to Play (2026-09-24)
SITUATIONAL
BAY: 298 team passing yards per game to COLO's 230
68 YPGBaylor is throwing for 298 yards a game through three games, Colorado for 230. Baylor was at 309.6 last season, so this is its identity, while Colorado is up from 202.8. Baylor's number should hold. If Colorado cannot slow the pass, this game likely gets played at Baylor's pace, with a lot of throws and a lot of possessions.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 26, 2026 at 8:07 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, betrivers, draftkings, betmgm, caesars.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
1- GARY'S PICKJULIAN LEWISPASSING YARDS UNDER 213.5
The 658 passing yards on Julian Lewis's season line hide a split. Take out the two FBS games and Weber State accounts for 366 of them. Against real opponents he has thrown for 124 at Georgia Tech and 168 with two interceptions at Northwestern. Neither is close to 213.5, and Baylor is the best defense he has faced. The Bears allow a 30.8% success rate, 12th in the country, and have already intercepted five passes. They held Auburn to 17.
The cast around Lewis is also getting thinner. Danny Scudero is still out. Charlie Williams, the tight end who caught the go-ahead score at Georgia Tech, is doubtful. The line is without Demetrius Hunter. Joseph Williams and DeAndre Moore Jr. are good players, but opponents can focus on two targets. A shaky pass-blocking group against a defense that takes the ball away makes explosive plays hard to come by.
The risk is game script. If Baylor goes up two scores early, Colorado has to throw, and garbage-time volume can push a quarterback over a number like this. That is why this is a lean and not a hammer. Still, trailing hasn't produced yardage for this offense so far. At Northwestern Colorado was buried and Lewis still finished at 168. At Georgia Tech the game was close and he threw for 124. I need him to beat his best FBS output by 45 yards against a better defense with fewer weapons, and I don't see it. Under 213.5.
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