A 7-1 team walks into Little Caesars Arena tonight to face a 6-1 team, and the 76ers are still getting 2.5 points. I'll take them, as long as Joel Embiid is on the floor. Start with the obvious counterargument: Detroit already won this matchup, 106-93 in Philadelphia on Oct. 25. But the 76ers were on a back-to-back without Embiid or VJ Edgecombe, and they shot 7-27 from three. Detroit only gets Ausar Thompson back from that game, so Philadelphia has more to gain in the rematch. The full-strength numbers also favor Philadelphia. The projected five of Tyrese Maxey, Edgecombe, Jaylen Brown, LeBron James and Embiid is 4-0 and winning by 9.5, including a win at New York and one over Cleveland. Detroit's current starters are 3-1, with wins over Charlotte (3-5) twice and Brooklyn (1-6), then a 14-point loss to the Knicks. Detroit's turnover game also looks less scary against this opponent. The Pistons forced 25, 24 and 27 against Charlotte and Brooklyn, but only 11 to 18 against Boston, Miami, Philadelphia and New York. The 76ers average just under 13. The biggest edge is inside, with Jalen Duren out. Detroit has been outrebounded in four straight games, and Paul Reed has 4, 4 and 5 boards over the last three. Karl-Anthony Towns put up 27 on 12-21 against this frontcourt, and John Collins is 6-22 over the last four games. This isn't a free ride. Embiid is reportedly on a restriction, calls the foot painful and is 8-23 over the last two appearances, while backup Adem Bona has 5 points in the last three games combined. Philadelphia's whole +46 point differential came in fourth quarters, and the 76ers are dead even through three. Detroit is +57 through three, though much of that came against weak teams. Cade Cunningham scored 33 in just 27 minutes Monday, and Brown admits the knee has been sore. That's why this is a modest play. Neither lineup is confirmed, so check Embiid's status before tip. If Embiid sits, the matchup edge mostly goes away and I'm off it.
A 7-1 team walks into Little Caesars Arena tonight to face a 6-1 team, and the 76ers are still getting 2.5 points. I'll take them, as long as Joel Embiid is on the floor.
Start with the obvious counterargument: Detroit already won this matchup, 106-93 in Philadelphia on Oct. 25. But the 76ers were on a back-to-back without Embiid or VJ Edgecombe, and they shot 7-27 from three. Detroit only gets Ausar Thompson back from that game, so Philadelphia has more to gain in the rematch.
The full-strength numbers also favor Philadelphia. The projected five of Tyrese Maxey, Edgecombe, Jaylen Brown, LeBron James and Embiid is 4-0 and winning by 9.5, including a win at New York and one over Cleveland. Detroit's current starters are 3-1, with wins over Charlotte (3-5) twice and Brooklyn (1-6), then a 14-point loss to the Knicks.
Detroit's turnover game also looks less scary against this opponent. The Pistons forced 25, 24 and 27 against Charlotte and Brooklyn, but only 11 to 18 against Boston, Miami, Philadelphia and New York. The 76ers average just under 13.
The biggest edge is inside, with Jalen Duren out. Detroit has been outrebounded in four straight games, and Paul Reed has 4, 4 and 5 boards over the last three. Karl-Anthony Towns put up 27 on 12-21 against this frontcourt, and John Collins is 6-22 over the last four games.
This isn't a free ride. Embiid is reportedly on a restriction, calls the foot painful and is 8-23 over the last two appearances, while backup Adem Bona has 5 points in the last three games combined. Philadelphia's whole +46 point differential came in fourth quarters, and the 76ers are dead even through three. Detroit is +57 through three, though much of that came against weak teams. Cade Cunningham scored 33 in just 27 minutes Monday, and Brown admits the knee has been sore.
That's why this is a modest play. Neither lineup is confirmed, so check Embiid's status before tip. If Embiid sits, the matchup edge mostly goes away and I'm off it.
76ers +2.5