NBA · Wed, Oct 28 · 7:00 PM

Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers

O/U 235.5 · SPREAD Philadelphia 76ers -5.5 · Gainbridge Fieldhouse

GARY'S PICK

NBA@ Pacers· -122

Philly rolls into Gainbridge Fieldhouse rested and 3-0 in the games Joel Embiid has played. Indiana comes home for its third game in four nights with eight names on the injury report. The 76ers are laying 6.5 on the road, and I'm laying it with them. Start with the schedule. Philadelphia has had two days off, while Indiana is coming home off a road back-to-back. The 76ers' only loss was by 13 to Detroit. That came on the second night of a back-to-back, without Embiid or VJ Edgecombe, on 7-of-27 shooting from three. Both are expected back tonight, and Edgecombe practiced fully Tuesday. With Embiid, Philly is +25 across three wins. Indiana is thin exactly where it hurts: - Center: Ivica Zubac is out. In the last game without Zubac, the Pacers gave up 16 offensive rebounds and 24 second-chance points at Milwaukee. Jay Huff projects to start against Embiid, and Philly got to the line 27, 30 and 34 times in Embiid's games. - Backcourt: Tyrese Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard are both questionable, and T.J. McConnell and Ben Sheppard are out. That could leave Quenton Jackson and Kelly Oubre Jr. handling the ball against a defense that has forced at least 15 turnovers in every game and scored 20 to 26 points off them every night. The résumés aren't close either. Indiana's wins came against 0-3 New Orleans and 0-4 Brooklyn. Against Milwaukee, Philly won by 11 at home, while Indiana lost by 8 there with Haliburton playing 35 minutes. The risks are real: - Indiana launched 43 and 48 threes in its last two games. One hot night like its 21-of-43 at Brooklyn can erase a 6.5 cushion. - Philly has allowed at least 14 offensive rebounds in three of four games. - Philly's wins came by 6, 8 and 11, so blowouts haven't been the norm. - This is Embiid's first game back from plantar fasciitis management. Haliburton is the swing, with 18 to 24 points and 7 to 12 assists every night. If Haliburton sits, this is my strongest lean on the board. If Haliburton plays, I'm still on Philly, just at a smaller stake.

Start with the schedule. Philadelphia has had two days off, while Indiana is coming home off a road back-to-back. The 76ers' only loss was by 13 to Detroit. That came on the second night of a back-to-back, without Embiid or VJ Edgecombe, on 7-of-27 shooting from three. Both are expected back tonight, and Edgecombe practiced fully Tuesday. With Embiid, Philly is +25 across three wins.

Indiana is thin exactly where it hurts: - Center: Ivica Zubac is out. In the last game without Zubac, the Pacers gave up 16 offensive rebounds and 24 second-chance points at Milwaukee. Jay Huff projects to start against Embiid, and Philly got to the line 27, 30 and 34 times in Embiid's games. - Backcourt: Tyrese Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard are both questionable, and T.J. McConnell and Ben Sheppard are out. That could leave Quenton Jackson and Kelly Oubre Jr. handling the ball against a defense that has forced at least 15 turnovers in every game and scored 20 to 26 points off them every night.

The résumés aren't close either. Indiana's wins came against 0-3 New Orleans and 0-4 Brooklyn. Against Milwaukee, Philly won by 11 at home, while Indiana lost by 8 there with Haliburton playing 35 minutes.

The risks are real: - Indiana launched 43 and 48 threes in its last two games. One hot night like its 21-of-43 at Brooklyn can erase a 6.5 cushion. - Philly has allowed at least 14 offensive rebounds in three of four games. - Philly's wins came by 6, 8 and 11, so blowouts haven't been the norm. - This is Embiid's first game back from plantar fasciitis management.

Haliburton is the swing, with 18 to 24 points and 7 to 12 assists every night. If Haliburton sits, this is my strongest lean on the board. If Haliburton plays, I'm still on Philly, just at a smaller stake.

The pick & result

Published pick: Philadelphia 76ers -6.5 -122
Published odds: -122
Result: Lost
Final score: 114-109

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Injuries noted

Philadelphia 76ers: Dominick Barlow (Out) — Injury/Illness - Low Back Stress Reaction; Tacko Fall (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Quadriceps Strain; Ariel Hukporti (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Achilles Tendon Rupture / Tear; Jabari Walker (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Knee Soreness

Indiana Pacers: Johnny Furphy (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right ACL Repair / Surgery; Tyrese Haliburton (Questionable) — Injury/Illness - Left Hamstring Tightness / Soreness; T.J. McConnell (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Hamstring Strain; Andrew Nembhard (Questionable) — Injury/Illness - Neck Stiffness / Soreness; Aaron Nesmith (Prob) — Injury/Illness - Left Hamstring Strain; Ben Sheppard (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Meniscus Tear; Obi Toppin (Prob) — Injury/Illness - Left Hand Sprain; Ivica Zubac (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Ankle Sprain

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

PHI won last season's series 4-0
4-0
Philadelphia beat Indiana in all 4 meetings last season, by 12.8 points a game. Tonight is the first meeting this season. Indiana is missing T.J. McConnell, Ben Sheppard and Johnny Furphy, and Philadelphia is without Dominick Barlow, Ariel Hukporti and Tacko Fall. Last season's sweep is context for this matchup, and the current injury lists matter more for tonight's number.

REPLACEMENT

Johnny Furphy is OUT for IND
OUT
Johnny Furphy is out for Indiana as he recovers from right ACL surgery, a long-term absence. Combined with T.J. McConnell and Ben Sheppard, Indiana's guard and wing rotation is short tonight.
Ariel Hukporti is OUT for PHI
OUT
Ariel Hukporti is out for Philadelphia with a right Achilles tear, a long-term absence. With Dominick Barlow and Tacko Fall also out, Philadelphia's big-man depth is short.
Dominick Barlow is OUT for PHI
OUT
Dominick Barlow is out for Philadelphia with a low back stress reaction, and earlier reports had him missing at least two weeks. Ariel Hukporti and Tacko Fall are out too, so Philadelphia's depth up front is thin tonight.
T.J. McConnell is OUT for IND
OUT
T.J. McConnell is out for Indiana with a right hamstring strain. Indiana is also missing Ben Sheppard and Johnny Furphy, so backcourt minutes tighten against a Philadelphia team that swept them last season.
Tacko Fall is OUT for PHI
OUT
Tacko Fall is out for Philadelphia with a left quadriceps strain. He is the third Philadelphia big out tonight, alongside Dominick Barlow and Ariel Hukporti.
Ben Sheppard is OUT for IND
OUT
Ben Sheppard is out for Indiana with a torn left meniscus and is scheduled for surgery. With T.J. McConnell and Johnny Furphy also out, Indiana's guard and wing depth is thin against Philadelphia.
Jabari Walker is OUT for PHI
OUT
Jabari Walker sits with left knee soreness, and he was ruled out the day before. That is a small rotation change for Philadelphia in Indiana, and nothing on the sheet points to a big ripple.
Ivica Zubac is OUT for IND
OUT
Indiana loses Ivica Zubac to a left ankle sprain against Philadelphia. Andrew Nembhard and Tyrese Haliburton are both questionable too, so Indiana's lineup is unsettled. Wait for the final report before reading too much into this game.
Tyrese Haliburton is Questionable for IND
Questionable
Tyrese Haliburton is questionable with left hamstring tightness. With Zubac out and Nembhard questionable, Indiana's lineup is unsettled. His status is the biggest unknown in this game.
Andrew Nembhard is Questionable for IND
Questionable
Andrew Nembhard is questionable with neck stiffness. Zubac is out and Haliburton is questionable, so Indiana's lineup against Philadelphia is uncertain until the final report.

SITUATIONAL

PHI on 3d, IND on 2d
3d vs 2d
Philadelphia has 3 days of rest and Indiana has 2. A one-day difference with no back-to-back is a minor factor in this game.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored October 28, 2026 at 4:44 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, rebet, draftkings, caesars, fanatics, betmgm, betparx, betrivers, ballybet, betway.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
TYRESE MAXEYPOINTS OVER 24.5
NBAPhiladelphia 76ers· +104
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 27
The book shaved this number because Embiid is expected back, and I think that read is backwards. Maxey already played three games next to Embiid this season and scored 28, 32 and 26 in them. Embiid draws help defense and opens up the lanes Maxey attacks. The Eastern Conference Player of the Week has scored at least 26 in every game, and his worst shooting nights from three have not dragged him under this line, because he lives on the rim and the free throw line. Indiana's guard depth is thin. McConnell and Sheppard are out, Nembhard and Haliburton are both questionable, and Nesmith is coming off a hamstring strain with a minutes limit two nights ago. Whoever draws Maxey tonight is either banged up or a reserve, and this is Indiana's third game in four nights while Philadelphia had two full days off. The Pacers also play fast and run with Siakam, which means more possessions for Maxey to get downhill in transition. Getting plus money on a scorer who has cleared this mark every night is the best price on the board.
Tyrese Maxey
Points over 24.5
+104 · CASHED · ACTUAL 27
Philadelphia 76ers
The book shaved this number because Embiid is expected back, and I think that read is backwards. Maxey already played three games next to Embiid this season and scored 28, 32 and 26 in them. Embiid draws help defense and opens up the lanes Maxey attacks. The Eastern Conference Player of the Week has scored at least 26 in every game, and his worst shooting nights from three have not dragged him under this line, because he lives on the rim and the free throw line.
Indiana's guard depth is thin. McConnell and Sheppard are out, Nembhard and Haliburton are both questionable, and Nesmith is coming off a hamstring strain with a minutes limit two nights ago. Whoever draws Maxey tonight is either banged up or a reserve, and this is Indiana's third game in four nights while Philadelphia had two full days off. The Pacers also play fast and run with Siakam, which means more possessions for Maxey to get downhill in transition. Getting plus money on a scorer who has cleared this mark every night is the best price on the board.
GARY'S PICK
VJ EDGECOMBEREBOUNDS OVER 5.5
NBAPhiladelphia 76ers· +104
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 7
Edgecombe crashes the glass like a forward, and this line is priced as if the abdominal bruise erased that. The rookie went into the Detroit absence with 13 boards against Milwaukee and 7 against Cleveland, all while sharing the floor with Embiid, and he practiced fully on Tuesday. The matchup is built for a guard who chases long rebounds. Indiana is firing threes at a heavy volume, 48 attempts in Milwaukee and 43 in Brooklyn, and they hit only 13 of those 48 against the Bucks. Long misses off the rim land on the perimeter, which is exactly where Edgecombe hunts. Zubac is out, so Jay Huff starts at center for Indiana, and Huff spends his time on the perimeter instead of boxing out, which leaves the defensive glass to whoever rotates hardest. On tired legs in the back half of a three in four stretch, Indiana will settle for jumpers even more. I will take the plus price on a rookie who has shown he wants every loose ball.
VJ Edgecombe
Rebounds over 5.5
+104 · CASHED · ACTUAL 7
Philadelphia 76ers
Edgecombe crashes the glass like a forward, and this line is priced as if the abdominal bruise erased that. The rookie went into the Detroit absence with 13 boards against Milwaukee and 7 against Cleveland, all while sharing the floor with Embiid, and he practiced fully on Tuesday.
The matchup is built for a guard who chases long rebounds. Indiana is firing threes at a heavy volume, 48 attempts in Milwaukee and 43 in Brooklyn, and they hit only 13 of those 48 against the Bucks. Long misses off the rim land on the perimeter, which is exactly where Edgecombe hunts. Zubac is out, so Jay Huff starts at center for Indiana, and Huff spends his time on the perimeter instead of boxing out, which leaves the defensive glass to whoever rotates hardest. On tired legs in the back half of a three in four stretch, Indiana will settle for jumpers even more. I will take the plus price on a rookie who has shown he wants every loose ball.

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