Miami walks into Chase Center one night after an overtime win over the Clippers in Los Angeles, with a rested Golden State team on a five-game win streak waiting. Thompson and Wiggins get their return to this building as Heat players, but the schedule is the story. Fatigue is the first reason I'm laying the points. Last night's game ran about 110 possessions, with Mitchell logging 43 minutes, Antetokounmpo and Adebayo 41 each, and Thompson 35, up from 27 in the previous game. Golden State has had two days off. Miami's only other back-to-back this season ended in a 115-110 loss at Charlotte after trailing 96-75 through three. The matchup makes those tired legs more costly. Opponents are shooting 40.5% from three against Miami, and the Warriors attempt 41.5 threes a game. They've made 22 threes in three of their last five games, winning those by 12, 17 and 20. They won the other two as well, shooting 37 free throws in each. After the Lakers scored 138 on Monday, Adebayo linked Miami's communication breakdowns to fatigue. That's a real problem against Curry, who has scored 34, 31, 44 and 24 in their last four games. Form points the same way. Golden State is +2.9 points per game this season and Miami is -4.9, before accounting for home court or rest. The Warriors are +57 during the streak, while the Heat are +12 over their last four. Miami's latest win was also thin. Thompson went 8-of-17 from three while the rest of the team went 2-of-23, and Antetokounmpo shot 8-of-20 and had the right wrist heavily taped afterward. Miami needed overtime to win by one against a Clippers team Golden State beat by 12 at home without Curry or Green. Horford and Williams are also back, giving Golden State more depth against a tired opponent. There's real risk here. Miami averages just over 52 points in the paint, Green is projected at center, and Golden State allowed 60 and 66 in the paint in two of its three losses. The Warriors also average 16.5 turnovers and have trailed after the first quarter in four of their last five games. Monday's 3-point win over Phoenix wouldn't have covered this number. Starting lineups weren't confirmed at last check, and this read assumes Curry and Green both play. I'll still lay the 3.5 with the rested team at home.
Miami walks into Chase Center one night after an overtime win over the Clippers in Los Angeles, with a rested Golden State team on a five-game win streak waiting. Thompson and Wiggins get their return to this building as Heat players, but the schedule is the story.
Fatigue is the first reason I'm laying the points. Last night's game ran about 110 possessions, with Mitchell logging 43 minutes, Antetokounmpo and Adebayo 41 each, and Thompson 35, up from 27 in the previous game. Golden State has had two days off. Miami's only other back-to-back this season ended in a 115-110 loss at Charlotte after trailing 96-75 through three.
The matchup makes those tired legs more costly. Opponents are shooting 40.5% from three against Miami, and the Warriors attempt 41.5 threes a game. They've made 22 threes in three of their last five games, winning those by 12, 17 and 20. They won the other two as well, shooting 37 free throws in each. After the Lakers scored 138 on Monday, Adebayo linked Miami's communication breakdowns to fatigue. That's a real problem against Curry, who has scored 34, 31, 44 and 24 in their last four games.
Form points the same way. Golden State is +2.9 points per game this season and Miami is -4.9, before accounting for home court or rest. The Warriors are +57 during the streak, while the Heat are +12 over their last four. Miami's latest win was also thin. Thompson went 8-of-17 from three while the rest of the team went 2-of-23, and Antetokounmpo shot 8-of-20 and had the right wrist heavily taped afterward. Miami needed overtime to win by one against a Clippers team Golden State beat by 12 at home without Curry or Green. Horford and Williams are also back, giving Golden State more depth against a tired opponent.
There's real risk here. Miami averages just over 52 points in the paint, Green is projected at center, and Golden State allowed 60 and 66 in the paint in two of its three losses. The Warriors also average 16.5 turnovers and have trailed after the first quarter in four of their last five games. Monday's 3-point win over Phoenix wouldn't have covered this number. Starting lineups weren't confirmed at last check, and this read assumes Curry and Green both play.
I'll still lay the 3.5 with the rested team at home.
Warriors -3.5