NBA · Sat, Oct 24 · 10:00 PM

Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns

O/U 221.5 · SPREAD Phoenix Suns -9.5 · Mortgage Matchup Center

GARY'S PICK

NBAvs Warriors· -112

The Suns open at home tonight two days removed from a 41-point beating in Portland. The Warriors arrive in the desert on the second night of a back-to-back with almost nobody left to send out, and that second part decides the game. Curry, Draymond Green, Horford and Podziemski are all out, on top of Butler, Moody and Porziņģis. Curry is the one absence that moves a line on its own. His shots, and the defensive attention Curry draws, now fall to Brandon Williams, Melton, Santos, Lendeborg and Ike. Green and Podziemski were the other decision-makers, so nobody on the floor tonight has run this offense. The ball-handling was already shaky with the starters in: 15 turnovers at LA and 19 against Memphis. Up front, it's Ike, Lendeborg, Niang and Leons. The book saw most of this coming. Curry, Horford and Podziemski were on the 4 PM report, and Green was Doubtful before going Out at 8:30, so this number isn't stale. My edge is narrower. Four absences at once cost more than four absences priced one at a time, because the minutes run all the way down to Cryer and Leons, who were coach's-decision DNPs on Friday. The back-to-back is priced in too, but the fatigue lands on the players who have to carry the load. Lendeborg played 37 minutes last night and will play more tonight. Don't let Portland scare you off. Phoenix shot 6-of-32 from three and trailed 43–12 after one quarter. That margin was mostly one bad shooting night plus garbage time. The Suns aren't due to bounce back, but one game doesn't say much about who they are. Golden State's 0-2 says even less: a 106–94 lead lost in the final 3:47, and a Lakers loss where Kessler went 12-for-12. The risk is real. Outside of Booker, Phoenix hasn't shown it can build a big lead. A Warriors group with nothing to lose can also get hot from three for a night. And if the game gets lopsided, the Suns' bench plays the late minutes. That's why this is a small play on a line I think is a little light, not a big bet.

The pick & result

Published pick: Phoenix Suns -9.5 -112
Published odds: -112
Result: Lost
Final score: 122-131

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Curry, Draymond Green, Horford and Podziemski are all out, on top of Butler, Moody and Porziņģis. Curry is the one absence that moves a line on its own. His shots, and the defensive attention Curry draws, now fall to Brandon Williams, Melton, Santos, Lendeborg and Ike. Green and Podziemski were the other decision-makers, so nobody on the floor tonight has run this offense. The ball-handling was already shaky with the starters in: 15 turnovers at LA and 19 against Memphis. Up front, it's Ike, Lendeborg, Niang and Leons.

The book saw most of this coming. Curry, Horford and Podziemski were on the 4 PM report, and Green was Doubtful before going Out at 8:30, so this number isn't stale. My edge is narrower. Four absences at once cost more than four absences priced one at a time, because the minutes run all the way down to Cryer and Leons, who were coach's-decision DNPs on Friday. The back-to-back is priced in too, but the fatigue lands on the players who have to carry the load. Lendeborg played 37 minutes last night and will play more tonight.

Don't let Portland scare you off. Phoenix shot 6-of-32 from three and trailed 43–12 after one quarter. That margin was mostly one bad shooting night plus garbage time. The Suns aren't due to bounce back, but one game doesn't say much about who they are. Golden State's 0-2 says even less: a 106–94 lead lost in the final 3:47, and a Lakers loss where Kessler went 12-for-12.

The risk is real. Outside of Booker, Phoenix hasn't shown it can build a big lead. A Warriors group with nothing to lose can also get hot from three for a night. And if the game gets lopsided, the Suns' bench plays the late minutes. That's why this is a small play on a line I think is a little light, not a big bet.

Injuries noted

Golden State Warriors: Charles Bassey (Questionable) — Injury/Illness - Right Patellar Tendinopathy; Jimmy Butler III (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right ACL Repair / Surgery; Stephen Curry (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Knee Injury Management; Draymond Green (Out) — Injury/Illness - Bilateral Low Back Soreness; Al Horford (Out) — Injury/Illness - Bilateral Low Back Injury Management; Moses Moody (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Patellar Tendon Repair / Surgery; Brandin Podziemski (Out) — Injury/Illness - Bilateral Low Back Injury Management; Kristaps Porzingis (Out) — Not With Team

Phoenix Suns: Oso Ighodaro (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Oblique Strain; Luke Kennard (Questionable) — Injury/Illness - Left Knee Tendinopathy; Mark Williams (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Shoulder Surgery

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored October 24, 2026 at 8:11 AM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, rebet, fanatics, draftkings, caesars, betmgm, betparx, betrivers, ballybet, betway.
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Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
YAXEL LENDEBORGREBOUNDS OVER 7.5
NBAGolden State Warriors· +105
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 9
Look at who Golden State has left up front tonight. Draymond Green and Al Horford are out, Porziņģis is away from the team, and Bassey is questionable without having played a game. That leaves Lendeborg, Graham Ike, Georges Niang and Malevy Leons to handle the glass against a Phoenix team that just put up 84 shots in Portland. Lendeborg is the one of that group Kerr trusts for heavy minutes. He played 37 last night and pulled 13 rebounds next to Green and Horford. Tonight both of those players are gone, so the boards they used to take are his. The matchup helps too. Phoenix went 30 of 84 and 6 of 32 from three on Wednesday. Even if the Suns shoot better at home, a team that takes this many jumpers leaves long rebounds all over the floor, and Lendeborg is the forward who goes and gets them. Khaman Maluach is a rookie center coming off a 17-minute game, and Ighodaro being out thins Phoenix's frontcourt as well. At plus money on a line two boards above what he did in Phoenix's shoes last night, I'll take it. What beats it: the back-to-back. If his legs are gone after 37 minutes Friday, he'll be slower to the ball. A Phoenix runaway is the bigger risk, because if this gets out of hand by the third quarter Kerr has no reason to keep him out there. Ike and Leons cutting into his share of the misses could also leave him stuck on seven.
Yaxel Lendeborg
Rebounds over 7.5
+105 · CASHED · ACTUAL 9
Golden State Warriors
Look at who Golden State has left up front tonight. Draymond Green and Al Horford are out, Porziņģis is away from the team, and Bassey is questionable without having played a game. That leaves Lendeborg, Graham Ike, Georges Niang and Malevy Leons to handle the glass against a Phoenix team that just put up 84 shots in Portland. Lendeborg is the one of that group Kerr trusts for heavy minutes. He played 37 last night and pulled 13 rebounds next to Green and Horford. Tonight both of those players are gone, so the boards they used to take are his.
The matchup helps too. Phoenix went 30 of 84 and 6 of 32 from three on Wednesday. Even if the Suns shoot better at home, a team that takes this many jumpers leaves long rebounds all over the floor, and Lendeborg is the forward who goes and gets them. Khaman Maluach is a rookie center coming off a 17-minute game, and Ighodaro being out thins Phoenix's frontcourt as well.
At plus money on a line two boards above what he did in Phoenix's shoes last night, I'll take it.
What beats it: the back-to-back. If his legs are gone after 37 minutes Friday, he'll be slower to the ball. A Phoenix runaway is the bigger risk, because if this gets out of hand by the third quarter Kerr has no reason to keep him out there. Ike and Leons cutting into his share of the misses could also leave him stuck on seven.
GARY'S PICK
BRANDON WILLIAMSASSISTS OVER 4.5
NBAGolden State Warriors· -125
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 5
Curry, Podziemski and Green ran nearly everything Golden State did through two games, and all three are out tonight. Williams is the only true point guard left on the roster. He showed at the Lakers what he does with real minutes, 14 points and three assists in under 18. When Podziemski came back Friday, Williams fell to nine minutes. Tonight there's nobody ahead of him, and he should be close to 30 minutes with the ball in his hands from the first possession. Melton is a combo guard who had zero assists Friday, and Santos is a wing. That makes Williams the one setting up Lendeborg in the pick and roll and kicking out to Niang and Melton. Phoenix will pressure the ball with Brooks and Jalen Green, which forces Williams to give it up early, and that's how assists pile up. The juice is a little heavy, but the role change is the whole story here. I'd rather pay for that than chase his points line. What beats it: this Warriors group can't shoot. They went 8 of 36 from three at LA and 14 of 41 against Memphis with Curry on the floor. Good passes don't count if the shot rims out. Williams also likes to look for his own shot, and with this little scoring around him he may hunt more than he sets up. If Phoenix pulls away and the bench plays the fourth quarter, he could be sitting on four.
Brandon Williams
Assists over 4.5
-125 · CASHED · ACTUAL 5
Golden State Warriors
Curry, Podziemski and Green ran nearly everything Golden State did through two games, and all three are out tonight. Williams is the only true point guard left on the roster. He showed at the Lakers what he does with real minutes, 14 points and three assists in under 18. When Podziemski came back Friday, Williams fell to nine minutes. Tonight there's nobody ahead of him, and he should be close to 30 minutes with the ball in his hands from the first possession.
Melton is a combo guard who had zero assists Friday, and Santos is a wing. That makes Williams the one setting up Lendeborg in the pick and roll and kicking out to Niang and Melton. Phoenix will pressure the ball with Brooks and Jalen Green, which forces Williams to give it up early, and that's how assists pile up.
The juice is a little heavy, but the role change is the whole story here. I'd rather pay for that than chase his points line.
What beats it: this Warriors group can't shoot. They went 8 of 36 from three at LA and 14 of 41 against Memphis with Curry on the floor. Good passes don't count if the shot rims out. Williams also likes to look for his own shot, and with this little scoring around him he may hunt more than he sets up. If Phoenix pulls away and the bench plays the fourth quarter, he could be sitting on four.

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